Hamas attack.on Israel. Oct 2023

[Najunamar]

Whatever be the rationale, adharmayuddha is being practiced by these terrorists. It is insensitive to claim this is natural in the fog of war. Karma will catch up and we need to hasten the process (like the Indian army Captain said, the final judgement happens after they meet the maker. We just arrange for them to meet the maker)

[Pratyush]

In a manner of speaking, what's happening in Israel today is a good thing.

The depraved behaviour and hostage taking is all the impetus a Citizens army needs to gear itself for a fight.

At this moment in time, I don't fear for Israel.

Anyone with more than 2 brain cells to rub together. Should fear what Israel is about to do in Gaza.

[yensoy]

This is very sad for the innocents on both sides of the conflict for they will suffer unbearable losses.

What Hamas has done is unpardonable and for sure they will be crushed and Israel will prevail in the end. I can't see this war ending with Hamas making any gains. But the biggest losers in this will be the population in the occupied territories.

Israel had its boot on the neck of Palestine since right after its creation, that is a fact. Things appeared to be getting better, that is also true. But the Palestinians have suffered decades of virtual imprisonment having to stand in long security lines just to get to work or to move from one enclave to another. There is little commerce or opportunity, and limited self-governance has not worked because those in power are scoundrels - but one cannot give the occupying state a free pass.

As legitimate as Israel is, the Palestinians were equally the original inhabitants of the land (as the native Jews, not the refugees from Europe). Of course Israel doesn't want to count the Palestinians as citizens for it will render the Jews to minority status and erase the religious nature of the state; but in that case they should have given a reasonable settlement to Palestine instead of keeping it an unviable collection of territories which are constantly shrinking because of encroachment from the "settlers".

I don't want to make this a green monster discussion because it isn't one. The communal angle is coming into the picture only because of Iran's support. Like Lebanon (although to a much smaller extent) Palestine has a Christian population as well. I agree with Roy in this regard that we should not idolize the Israelis, but should call for immediate cessation of hostilities and support a peaceful & fair settlement.

[sanman]

Nepali foreign workers in Israel may have been taken hostage by Hamas:

[Aditya_V]

2 things, 1. This has moved the headlines away from Ukraine. 2. Hamas leadership and large % of its foot soldiers and facilities in Gza have to removed, Gaza will have to be on seige with no food/ water till this happens over the next 2 months.

[Najunamar]

Yensoyji, hard to empathize with someone who does unpardonable things to a dead human body, similar to what our neighbors did with our soldiers.

[sanman]

[Tanaji]

The shantidoots of Londonistan are celebrating the attack

https://www.thejc.com/news/israel/outra ... HsTCylEwCx

[Cain Marko]

I'm still not seeing anything as large scale as folks are making the Hamas attack to be. Sure, a few dozens of gun weilding yahoos seem to be running around. But this doesn't seem anything like the wars of the 20th Century - Yom Kippur for example. This is a massive terror attack no doubt, but I think Israel will sort it out and the retaliation will probably be very severe.

This seems to be another rerun of the usual - raakit man attack followed by F15 dropping bombs on buildings. Sh*t never ends. As an outsider, all I can do is feel bad for victims on both sides. This has been going on for like 3000 years between these people - the oldest conflict in the world I suppose. Don't they ever get tired of it?

[yensoy]

Yensoyji, hard to empathize with someone who does unpardonable things to a dead human body, similar to what our neighbors did with our soldiers.

Sir I don't want to bring in emotion into this situation, so no need to empathize. Also no need to glorify one side or consider them God's gift to the world. Both sides have their fair share of skeletons in the closet and all we can pray for is some remaining humanity to prevail. We don't have as much skin in the game as we think.

[Neela]

I dont understand why countries like Israel and India keep using conventional military organizations and structures to deal with groups dealing with asymmetric warfare.
Why aren't mercenary units , supported indirectly and disconnected from defense units organizationally an option ?. They can be used for *constant, offense ,hit-and-run* operations similar to the militant groups. And this gives you plausible deniability and also raises the cost of defensive operations on the other side.
Anyone openly supporting Hamas, including the political leadership is game for such mercenary groups. Wipe them out completely.

[ramana]

The big difference between the Yom Kippur War 50 years ago is that this is a terrorist raid. Yes, surprise is there, and hostages were taken.

[sanman]

What are the dangers of jihadis doing similar copycat attacks for more Pulwamas, etc?

Imagine similar strategies and tactics being used in J&K, Northeast, even Punjab.

In our case there are no Jehadis or terrorist. It is pakistan. Answer this question, if they attack with their armored brigade say in chamb area what will you do? We will do the same when they attack this way or that way. Stop Dhoti shibber and the retaliation that is coming.

It's possible there is a state sponsor who is backing/instigating this Hamas attack.
As we know, Israelis & Saudis were on the verge of a peace deal, and Iran would certainly be no fan of that.

Look at all the covert training Hamas suddenly got, to be able to carry out this attack. It doesn't look to have happened through the usual channels or methods, since it was kept very secret from Israeli & foreign intelligence who might have otherwise been more in-the-know about Hamas activities.

To me, it looks like some foreign state sponsor(s) orchestrated a very well-hidden plan to execute a massive sneak-attack to cause upheaval in the region, with the likely goal of scuttling US-Israel-Saudi peace prospects.

[Pratyush]

Purely from a tactical stand point. Hamas is bottled up in Gaza. There is a limit to its ability to cause damage to Israel.

However, the problem is that Hamas has a complete strangle hold on the territory. Once they wiped out PLO.


There might be only a limited human intelligence assets available for Israel. Tech int can be defeated either by overloading the analytical capabilities of the adversary. Or by going very old school, and human messengers.

Which brings us back to human intelligence collection capabilities.

[Pratyush]

Both Iran and Turkey are against any settlement between Israel and the Arabs.

Iran is a known backer of both Hamas and Hisbulla.

The question I have been asking myself for over 24 hours. Why the northern front is quite?

[Sumeet]

Could this be revenge of Soleimani assasination (or one of reasons behind lethality of this attack) ? Any gurus want to shed light on that angle ...

[Manish_P]

I'm still not seeing anything as large scale as folks are making the Hamas attack to be. Sure, a few dozens of gun weilding yahoos seem to be running around. But this doesn't seem anything like the wars of the 20th Century - Yom Kippur for example. This is a massive terror attack no doubt, but I think Israel will sort it out and the retaliation will probably be very severe. .....

+1

The israelis, unlike the Pakis, don't care that much about their image (number 1 intelligence agency or whatever).

They were caught out. They then quickly got into reply mode.

They are letting the attacks, large as they are, get even more amplified so that their retribution will not be questioned/censured as much.

Jihadis happy they got to kill the jews, IDF happy as they are now unleashed on the jihadis,

Media happy to get all the eyeballs/clicks.

Pakis happy about the attack. We will be happy as the Israelis retaliate.

Only sad will be the families of the poor wretches who got butchered.

[partha]

https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_ ... on-israel/

Hamas spokesman says Iran gave support for surprise attack on Israel

[AshishA]

Yensoyji, hard to empathize with someone who does unpardonable things to a dead human body, similar to what our neighbors did with our soldiers.

Sir I don't want to bring in emotion into this situation, so no need to empathize. Also no need to glorify one side or consider them God's gift to the world. Both sides have their fair share of skeletons in the closet and all we can pray for is some remaining humanity to prevail. We don't have as much skin in the game as we think.

I doubt humanity will prevail. And I agree with this sentiment. There is definitely a element of idolization of Israelis. Lastly, civilian population will suffer the most in event of any war.

[Sachin]

There is definitely a element of idolization of Israelis.

That could be because Indians have seen a series of eunuch governments who were not keen on fighting or hitting back. Israel have a previous track record of hitting back, and fighting back.

[drnayar]

Great time for China to try take over Taiwan !!

[SRajesh]

Defiling and desecrating is very Abrahamic trait given their beliefs of just one birth
Tactically Israeli’s got caught out
Response wise not sure if they clean up Gaza Strip and push all peaceful to Egypt ( that’s realistic option to stop home made rocket attacks)
Complete Israeli occupation of all territories with none of self rule shit not possible unless Iran Turkey ( and shadowy hands behind them) are subdued
Hamas content with headlines grabbing and sacrificing few hundred
So not sure of any lasting results apart from stalemate

[AshishA]

There is definitely a element of idolization of Israelis.

That could be because Indians have seen a series of eunuch governments who were not keen on fighting or hitting back. Israel have a previous track record of hitting back, and fighting back.

I agree. But at the end of the day, Israelis are more likely to identify with their Christian/woke white brethren than us.

[SRajesh]

Neelaji
Only two countries have that capability
But see how Ruski are lambasted for their mercenaries
Even chin don’t openly acknowledge such capabilities
Unkil can and will get away with such aseet and attacks
Isreal can and has done only for single targets but not medium scale attacks

[sanman]

Purely from a tactical stand point. Hamas is bottled up in Gaza. There is a limit to its ability to cause damage to Israel.

Hamas has plenty of rockets, including the Iranian-designed Al-Quds ones. These can hit a wide swathe of Israel.

However, the problem is that Hamas has a complete strangle hold on the territory. Once they wiped out PLO.

There might be only a limited human intelligence assets available for Israel. Tech int can be defeated either by overloading the analytical capabilities of the adversary. Or by going very old school, and human messengers.

Which brings us back to human intelligence collection capabilities.

It will be impossible to extract the hostages from the ant's nest of underground tunnels Hamas has built under Gaza. This is worse than Tora Bora.

If we look at Israel's failed invasion of Lebanon during the 80s, that's what enabled Hezbollah to come out on top.

If Israel invades Gaza, this will again be a similar repeat, where Israeli forces get bogged down without being able to find the hostages.

State sponsor (Iran) knows this, and has orchestrated this stunt to lay an ugly trap for them.

Both Iran and Turkey are against any settlement between Israel and the Arabs.

Iran is a known backer of both Hamas and Hisbulla.

The question I have been asking myself for over 24 hours. Why the northern front is quite?

Iran doesn't want to play its ultimate card, which sits in Lebanon. They'd only do that if Iran itself came under siege for regime change.

Iran's goal is simply to upend any looming Israeli-Saudi peace deal that might leave them isolated. That's good enough for them.

Biden and his team aren't smart enough to outwit their growing list of challengers.

[hanumadu]

How did 20 lakh people come to reside in the Gaza strip which is 350 sq km while another 35 lakh people reside in the 5500 sq km West Bank?

[RoyG]

As I mentioned previously, the two principal backers, Iran and China, designed this operation in a way that the counteroffensive will be throttled down.

The reaction from West is actually rather muted. They don't want this to jeopardize the developing coalition to counter BRI.

I would say the Israelis are where we were prior to 2014. They have to learn how to calibrate the response in a way which is seen to at least achieve parity but at the same time not jeopardize any long term diplomatic and development goals.

There is also this issue which everyone seems to be missing. The shia regime's popularity among its traditional support base is shrinking. While it has expanded its influence across Iraq and Syria, it hasn't been able to formulate an effective response to high profile operations mounted by Israel and the West. This has caused a bit of a loss of confidence problem which is deadly in a theocratic/authoritarian setup. I think this attack will serve as a boost to the regimes credibility across all Muslim sects.

[drnayar]

Soros and his social engineering ?!!

[drnayar]

[RoyG]

Iran want to draw this out and publicly support the raid to shore up support from its traditional backers in the society and isolate Israel diplomatically.

They took out a page from the Paki playbook. The Israelis walked right into the trap. Netanyahu says this is "war" and is now doing mass mobilization. Similar to what we did after Parliament attack. Also, they will drop a few bombs here and there, squat on some territory, and then after US and EU pressure they will go home.

Meanwhile, they also make the Saudis and Emiratis look stupid. Overall, there is a good chance that Iran will walk away from this looking much stronger.

China gets some benefit from this. It forces the US security establishment to tread more cautiously. The SCO has a policy which I call "light a thousand fires". They are setting alight any piece of critical territory they set their sights on to keep the West off balance. The logic is to spread the US military commitment thin, exhaust it, thereby enabling the SCO to execute campaigns in hotspots where it counts.

The Chinese also benefit because the West will be forced to rope them in to put pressure on Iran. It's a good bargaining chip. They do this with North Korea.

[AshishA]

Countries like Russia, Iran, China benefit.

[A_Gupta]

The failure of intelligence is stunning.

Josh Marshall in talkingpointsmemo.com:

One big mystery about today’s events in Israel, which I alluded to in the previous post, is how exactly Israel was caught quite this unprepared. An attack of this scale required very large numbers of people to be read into the preparations if not the operational planning for the attack. Israel has long had a dense network of informants and collaborators in the territories. That’s layered over with signals intelligence and various forms of surveillance. And yet Israel appears to have been caught totally unawares and unprepared. It’s not just that they didn’t know something like this was happening today. They don’t seem to have known that an operation of this scale and audacity was even being considered.

That’s an intelligence failure that’s hard to overstate.

As to aftermath:

You can’t destroy an idea or an ideology with military force. But you can destroy an organization’s military capacity with military force. And that will almost certainly be the goal of Israel’s response. I don’t want to speak too confidently about how these missions operate. But I would have to assume that most of the key people in Hamas’s military chain of command will be dead in the next few weeks. The same likely applies to much of its political leadership and not just in Gaza.

The Hamas decision makers who planned this operation had to know all of this. So they mounted this operation knowing this was where it would lead. Individual self-sacrifice is intrinsic to the culture of these organizations. Organization self-destruction is not. And yet here we are. Again, that’s a pretty big mystery and I haven’t seen any clear answer to it.

[jash_p]

The failure of intelligence is stunning.

This is a Kargil of Israel.

[NRao]

I think India and Israel benefit. For the simple reason, I think these two nations will not negotiate or compromise (both are under similar Islamic stress). They will pay a price and make sure the opponents will not raise their heads again. It will take time and the potential for a kinetic conflict will be high.

India for sure has worked too hard to let China benefit. A Hamas attack will not make Modi back down. At least I doubt it. I am betting this attack will get Modi 10 more seats (he probably got 10 when Justinder opened his mouth).

And, who exactly is Iran?

I am of the opinion that old reasons are no longer valid. Iran can laugh as much as they want but will have to pay a price. Perhaps even a regime change.

I am not sure, but, I think Modi was the first to support Israel. IMO, Indian gloves WRT Iran are off - no more balancing act. After dealing with Gaza, the next stop is Iran.

[RoyG]

A Gupta,

Political transition along with bureaucratic reshuffling in the backdrop of a larger middle east peace deal. Failure of intelligence analysis rather than collection seems to also be a factor.

[RoyG]

I think India and Israel benefit. For the simple reason, I think these two nations will not negotiate or compromise (both are under similar Islamic stress). They will pay a price and make sure the opponents will not raise their heads again. It will take time and the potential for a kinetic conflict will be high.

India for sure has worked too hard to let China benefit. A Hamas attack will not make Modi back down. At least I doubt it. I am betting this attack will get Modi 10 more seats (he probably got 10 when Justinder opened his mouth).

And, who exactly is Iran?

I am of the opinion that old reasons are no longer valid. Iran can laugh as much as they want but will have to pay a price. Perhaps even a regime change.

I am not sure, but, I think Modi was the first to support Israel. IMO, Indian gloves WRT Iran are off - no more balancing act. After dealing with Gaza, the next stop is Iran.

Where did Modi come from? We are there to simply help create a suitable arrangement so we can boost trade, obtain resources, and make money.

We need to shed this reverence for others.

[drnayar]

I think India and Israel benefit. For the simple reason, I think these two nations will not negotiate or compromise (both are under similar Islamic stress). They will pay a price and make sure the opponents will not raise their heads again. It will take time and the potential for a kinetic conflict will be high.

India for sure has worked too hard to let China benefit. A Hamas attack will not make Modi back down. At least I doubt it. I am betting this attack will get Modi 10 more seats (he probably got 10 when Justinder opened his mouth).

And, who exactly is Iran?

I am of the opinion that old reasons are no longer valid. Iran can laugh as much as they want but will have to pay a price. Perhaps even a regime change.

I am not sure, but, I think Modi was the first to support Israel. IMO, Indian gloves WRT Iran are off - no more balancing act. After dealing with Gaza, the next stop is Iran.

Its only the trio of Namo/Jai/AD keeping India safe from similar situation in India !! ... Terrorism has a religion and its a venomous snake that is best killed or kept at bay.

[drnayar]

The failure of intelligence is stunning.

This is a Kargil of Israel.

100x Worse . The worst in Israel s history.It is a full blown hybrid war. A war not of technology but tactics and deception.

[vijayk]

Same modus operandi of.pakis

Track Thoo starts pressuring India to start peace process
The politicians in India and pakistan start a dialogue
The paki military makes a spectacular attack to stop the process
We stand there stunned ... what happened here!!
Immediately pakis start blaming India
Track thoo shifts blame and asks us not to abandon peace process

[NRao]

Where did Modi come from? We are there to simply help create a suitable arrangement so we can boost trade, obtain resources, and make money.

We need to shed this reverence for others.

We are there to simply change the world order, through the mechanism of trade, resources, etc.