Why We Need Pokhran-3

[sanman]

It was during the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis, when the US was distracted by its confrontation with Moscow, that China chose that moment to attack India, resulting in the 1962 Sino-Indian War.

What is the danger that China, along with its client Pakistan, could once again take advantage of the situation to attack India while the West is distracted?

Currently, the US is now again distracted on multiple fronts - a confrontation with Moscow over Ukraine, and now the latest war threat brewing in the Middle East. These confrontations are unlikely to go away soon, resulting in an extended period of instability, and thus an extended window of vulnerability, including for us.

We need to go in for Pokhran-3, in order to shore up our own defenses, by testing thermonuclear weapons, including tactical ones. We should also gather enough data to be able to continue future weapons development under-the-table with sub-kiloton hydronuclear testing & numerical simulation. We need a strong deterrent in order to safeguard our agenda for peaceful economic development, so that we can continue that development as our prime focus.

As the latest ugly experience in Israel has shown: BETTER SAFE THAN SORRY.

[SRajesh]

Sanmanji
A third term for NaMo and a 5-10 trillion economy with a world supply chain probalby are the prerequisites for P-3

[sanman]

Sanmanji
A third term for NaMo and a 5-10 trillion economy with a world supply chain probalby are the prerequisites for P-3

China & Pak may not wait for our preferred timetable, and may choose to pre-empt it with their own sneak-attack actions.
Likewise, similarly we've seen that Iran & Hamas were not going to sit around waiting for Israeli-Saudi peace deal to take place, and they chose to launch a 9-11 style sneak attack in meantime.

US cannot afford to sanction us when they're facing trouble on multiple fronts with Russia and China and Middle East too. We have to act before our enemies act against us. Yes, ordinarily I would say it's in our interest to wait until we grow stronger before rocking the boat with P-3, but the latest 9-11 in Middle East has changed the equation. Now we have to be on heightened guard against 2-front sneak attack by China+Pak, and we're better off strengthening our nuclear deterrent with P-3 to head off a possible attack by them.

[Mort Walker]

Rumors are the US conducted an underground test in Nevada today.

[Mort Walker]

Admins. Please move this thread to the military forum.

[Tanaji]

We need to go in for Pokhran-3, in order to shore up our own defenses, by testing thermonuclear weapons, including tactical ones. We should also gather enough data to be able to continue future weapons development under-the-table with sub-kiloton hydronuclear testing & numerical simulation. We need a strong deterrent in order to safeguard our agenda for peaceful economic development, so that we can continue that development as our prime focus.

As the latest ugly experience in Israel has shown: BETTER SAFE THAN SORRY.

Assuming you believe Kakodkar et al, each of the items you mentioned were met by the tests of Pokhran 2.

No argument on the need for further testing but that wont happen. 5T economy > deterrence.

[hnair]

It is no longer a rumor. It has been confirmed that US has tested a nuclear device at Nevada test site

[sanman]

Rumors are the US conducted an underground test in Nevada today.

https://www.foxnews.com/us/us-conducts- ... r-test-ban

US Conducts Nuclear Test in Nevada Hours After Russian Move to Revoke Global Test Ban

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... #xj4y7vzkg

US Nuclear Test Raises Concerns of New Arms Race With Russia

[sanman]

Assuming you believe Kakodkar et al, each of the items you mentioned were met by the tests of Pokhran 2.

That's just a line. Pokhran-2 fell short of our expectations and our needs.

No argument on the need for further testing but that wont happen. 5T economy > deterrence.

USA can't afford to stick us under sanctions while China prepares to invade Taiwan and Iran prepares to foment terror attacks all over MidEast.

[Rupesh]

With US testing, it won't be long before Russia and China also test. This should be sufficient reason for us to test,. Our thermonuclear device needs more tests.

[Mort Walker]

It is no longer a rumor. It has been confirmed that US has tested a nuclear device at Nevada test site

I saw stuff on Twitter but no news alerts from places like WSJ at time of my posting. Now confirmed.

[VinodTK]

Bloomberg
US Nuclear Test Raises Concerns of New Arms Race With Russia

Fox News
Russia-is-closely-monitoring-us-nuclear-test-in-nevada-putin-s-spokesperson-says


Newsweek
US May Have Given Russia Green Light to Test Nuclear Weapons

[sudeepj]

A heavy thermonuclear weapon is not a very big deal to achieve once you have the basic ingredients: U235, Pu239 with low amounts of Pu242, and Tritium. A low weight, optimized thermonuclear weapon needs testing.

What is the importance of these weapons? These are truly genocidal weapons of unlimited yield. A single 3MT warhead can completely wipe out a large metropolis. Two or three are sufficient to destroy even the suburbs. This is unlike a 50 or 100KT boosted fission weapon, that will be heavier, will be more prone to pre-detonation (or a fizzle), and can at best severely maim a city, with recovery happening in a few to several years. In comparison, an attack by a thermonuke can wipe out a city for generations. There wont be enough people left to procreate and keep the region's population going.

Its intolerable, that unethical war like civilizations own these weapons, threaten us with these weapons, and wage subliminal war on us using these weapons as a shield. Therefore, we also need these weapons so we can deter such genocidal attacks on us. Having 50-100KT weapons on a few SSBNs will not be enough.

However, the time when we do this test must be sequenced in a way that makes it impossible for Pakistan to test such a weapon. If Pakistan army owns a weapon using which they can commit a genocide on Hindus, they will use it the first opportunity they get. As Indian population density grows and more and more people congregate in cities, this becomes a big risk.

Yes, nuclear war is evil.. But not preparing for one, and thus being in a position where you can lose such a war, is an even greater evil.

Btw. Take a look at the Ratehalli enrichment plant. The set up is massive now. So I dont think we are 'wanting' for any materials now. Its a question of proofing the designs. May be we can pay NoKo a billion dollars and use their facilities instead. Will also preclude Pukes trying to get something on the cheap from them.

[sanman]

We need more nuclear testing, especially for tactical thermonuclear weapons, and also to obtain enough data to enable further development using sub-kiloton hydronuclear testing and numerical simulation. We absolutely cannot leave ourselves vulnerable to China and Pak, given their proclivities. Nuclear deterrence is a lot cheaper compared to conventional arms race.

[VinodTK]

Bloomberg
US Nuclear Test Raises Concerns of New Arms Race With Russia

Fox News
Russia-is-closely-monitoring-us-nuclear-test-in-nevada-putin-s-spokesperson-says


Newsweek
US May Have Given Russia Green Light to Test Nuclear Weapons

[Amber G.]

From *all* indications: It was not actually a nuclear test, but a test that helps with nuclear detection. The explosion itself was chemical, not nuclear. The US did not detonate a nuke in Arizona.

[Tanaji]

The nuclear Issues archive should be required reading before commenting on this thread as the same points that were disproved keep coming up.

[sudeepj]

The North Korean ICBM, staged radiation imploded thermonuke weapon. You can see the 'peanut' shape. Interestingly, I vaguely recall that one of the early US thermonuke test devices was called the peanut. (But I may be wrong..)


Below is the Indian thermonuke. The difference in sizes and shapes is pretty obvious.. The Indian device appears to be larger. The length to diameter ratio makes it clear this was a two stage weapon. A pure boosted fission device would be more or less spherical and have a smaller Length/Diameter ratio. I never figured out what the clunky rings on top are for..


The two orifices you see on the device sides are most likely for instrumentation to measure the X-Ray flux at two different points in the 'radiation chamber', that are separated axially and along the length of the cylinder.

[Mort Walker]

From *all* indications: It was not actually a nuclear test, but a test that helps with nuclear detection. The explosion itself was chemical, not nuclear. The US did not detonate a nuke in Arizona.

Reports indicate test with radio isotopes in Nevada. The question is did any nuclei go into fusion or fission?

The timing is bad. The current US regime is hell-bent on starting a nuclear war.

[drnayar]

It was an effing Nuclear test !! however the americans spin it

[drnayar]

From *all* indications: It was not actually a nuclear test, but a test that helps with nuclear detection. The explosion itself was chemical, not nuclear. The US did not detonate a nuke in Arizona.

if this is a test that tests the trigger for the primary, is nt that equivalent to testing a nuclear weapon design ? are we still looking for mushroom clouds in the 21st century ?

where else would any one want such an experiment ?!! ..CTBT is dead ..and gone

[Amber G.]

In short:
The headline is wrong! It was a test at a nuclear test SITE, but no nukes were tested. Chemical high explosives, and radio-tracers. (Per Energy Department).

It is common to use accelerometer, seismometer, EM sensors, infrasound sensors, and chemical and radio-tracers. Seismic data and other types of traces are there for review from standard sources... [ Hint: One can not hide nuclear test..)

BTW: Bloomberg types have zero credibility - if you just look last few weeks headlines, you will see:

Modi's Party Linked With Most Hate Speech in India ...

Global Watchdog Probes India After NGOs Say It's

...

A global anti-money laundering body is poised to examine whether India's government under Prime Minister Narendra Modi is misusing...

India Journalist Arrests Send Chill Ahead of Elections as

...

Modi's New India Won't Be Ally to the West

Murder Claim in Canada
. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau accused Modi's government of ..

.

Holding Modi to Account Over India's Violence

These are just the random samples...They won't know the difference between radio-isotopes and Radio Ceylon /sigh/... When it comes to science, or South Asia - they are as bigoted and ignorant as BBC..

[Najunamar]

In other words, this is the US’s “Peaceful Nuclear Explosion”.

[Amber G.]

FWIW: (From what I have seen:

Sources that have raised concerns about the test:
Bloomberg
CNN
The Guardian
The New York Times
ityadi...

IMO, Reputable sources that support what I posted:

US Department of Energy
Nuclear Threat Initiative
ityadi..
"Official" position - per Govt. sources:

The test at the Nevada National Security Site was a high-explosives test, not a nuclear test. (As far as I can tell - This is supported by statements from the US Department of Energy and the Air Force Global Strike Command)

The test was part of the ongoing 'Stockpile Stewardship' Program, which is designed to ensure the 'safety, security, and reliability' of the US nuclear stockpile without conducting nuclear tests. The program uses a variety of methods to test the performance...including high-explosives tests, computer simulations, and underground tests of non-nuclear materials.

The test did not release any radioactive material into the environment.

Some have raised concerns that the test could be seen as a provocation by Russia, which has accused the US of developing new nuclear weapons. However, the US government has maintained that the test was a routine part of the Stockpile Stewardship Program and that it was not intended to signal any change in US nuclear policy.

IMO, this is not a "Nuclear Explosion” (“Peaceful" or otherwise )

[Cyrano]

ensure the 'safety, security, and reliability' of the US nuclear stockpile without conducting nuclear tests

That's a very Paki sounding statement.

Official statement != automatically 100% true (even when a high responsible like Powell makes it in front of the world at the UN.)

The Russian reaction will tell us something more...

[Roop]

Assuming you believe Kakodkar et al, each of the items you mentioned were met by the tests of Pokhran 2.

Well, I do believe Kakodkar et al, so I think the P2 tests met their objective. That said, one could make a good case for further tests if Indian scientists have a few new/refined designs they want to test, but I can't see that happening before next year's elections, if it happens at all.

[sanman]

From *all* indications: It was not actually a nuclear test, but a test that helps with nuclear detection. The explosion itself was chemical, not nuclear. The US did not detonate a nuke in Arizona.

if this is a test that tests the trigger for the primary, is nt that equivalent to testing a nuclear weapon design ? are we still looking for mushroom clouds in the 21st century ?

where else would any one want such an experiment ?!! ..CTBT is dead ..and gone

Russians have just de-ratified CTBT, and may be moving to carry out fresh nuclear testing. Such testing would definitely put nail in CTBT's coffin.

As advanced as Russia's nukes are -- what the heck would they learn through fresh nuclear tests???
Would this just be to verify their existing stockpile is in working order?
Or could they genuinely have some new super-advanced warhead design they need to validate???
(Please do enlighten me -- enquiring minds wanna know)

[Amber G.]

^^^ I am a nuclear physicist, not a CTBT expert, but they tell me:

India has not ratified the CTBT, nor has the United States. All eight Annex II states, which are considered to have nuclear weapons or nuclear weapons programs, must ratify the treaty for it to enter into force. The other Annex II states that have not ratified the CTBT are China, Egypt, Iran, Israel, North Korea, and Pakistan.

India and the United States have both expressed support for the CTBT, but they have not yet ratified it. India has cited security concerns as the reason for its decision not to ratify the treaty, while the United States has cited the need for further domestic political support.

[Amber G.]

ensure the 'safety, security, and reliability' of the US nuclear stockpile without conducting nuclear tests

That's a very Paki sounding statement.

Official statement != automatically 100% true (even when a high responsible like Powell makes it in front of the world at the UN.)

I guess, one can call it a Paki statement with Lahori logic.... Just do a old tired pathetic argument "100 % not true" to prove any conspiracy theory.. eg ... "Indian Scientists statements are not 100% true" implies it was a fizzle. Ityadi..

As Max Born said:

The problem with the world is that the intelligent people are full of doubts, while the stupid ones are full of confidence

[williams]

Right now I would spend my money on building our MIC and building our delivery capability. We need to break the Babu-Brass nexus that keeps us dependent on foreign conventional weapons We also need the 12k km Agni with MIRV and MARV technology. We need more SLBMs and SSBNs. We need nuclear propulsion for our ACs. All this combined with a robust economy will provide us with enough deterrence. We can conduct all kinds of research other than testing and once these 4 letter treaties become 4 letter words we can test them.

[Amber G.]

It was an effing Nuclear test !! however the americans spin it

Even the rags like Fox news, and Bloomberg with their sensational and inaccurate/stupid head lines about "Nuclear Test" say (see the links given here -- read actual words).. eg:

The US conducted a high-explosive experiment at a nuclear test site in Nevada j

/sigh/

[Amber G.]

The nuclear Issues archive should be required reading before commenting on this thread as the same points that were disproved keep coming up.

There are about 12,000 posts..(Including hundreds from me )...
Seriously, there is lot of gyan there.(along with lot of other stuff)..lot of items are given very good treatment/explained with basic physics.

[vera_k]

Not Pokhran. One of the learnings from Pokhran 2 was that the test range cannot support higher yields.

So where can a new test range be established?

[sanman]

Right now I would spend my money on building our MIC and building our delivery capability. We need to break the Babu-Brass nexus that keeps us dependent on foreign conventional weapons We also need the 12k km Agni with MIRV and MARV technology. We need more SLBMs and SSBNs. We need nuclear propulsion for our ACs. All this combined with a robust economy will provide us with enough deterrence. We can conduct all kinds of research other than testing and once these 4 letter treaties become 4 letter words we can test them.

We still need to keep ourselves from being sucker-punched in the meantime. Like I said, China+Pak won't wait for our plans to play out on our preferred timetable, and will instead try to hit us with a BIG SUCKER-PUNCH in the meantime, just like what Iran+Hamas just now did to Israel. The infamous sucker-punch is all they have, and that's why they do it.

[williams]

Right now I would spend my money on building our MIC and building our delivery capability. We need to break the Babu-Brass nexus that keeps us dependent on foreign conventional weapons We also need the 12k km Agni with MIRV and MARV technology. We need more SLBMs and SSBNs. We need nuclear propulsion for our ACs. All this combined with a robust economy will provide us with enough deterrence. We can conduct all kinds of research other than testing and once these 4 letter treaties become 4 letter words we can test them.

We still need to keep ourselves from being sucker-punched in the meantime. Like I said, China+Pak won't wait for our plans to play out on our preferred timetable, and will instead try to hit us with a BIG SUCKER-PUNCH in the meantime, just like what Iran+Hamas just now did to Israel. The infamous sucker-punch is all they have, and that's why they do it.

I am talking about deterring conventional power centers (the reason we need the nukes). To deal with Pakis and Ding Dongs, you need different kind of muscles. Nukes are not going to help with their so-called punches.

[drnayar]

It was an effing Nuclear test !! however the americans spin it

Even the rags like Fox news, and Bloomberg with their sensational and inaccurate/stupid head lines about "Nuclear Test" say (see the links given here -- read actual words).. eg:

The US conducted a high-explosive experiment at a nuclear test site in Nevada j

/sigh/

Not to nitpick but again it was a test to validate a nuclear weapon design !..at least the front stage..so why not call it a nuclear test ? ..just like the west have their own definitions for everything , we should say any test related to nuclear weapon design or validation is a nuclear test.

[sanman]

I am talking about deterring conventional power centers (the reason we need the nukes). To deal with Pakis and Ding Dongs, you need different kind of muscles. Nukes are not going to help with their so-called punches.

Their sucker-punches would not be tiny. We could be hit by a 2-front war from them.

[Tanaji]

There are about 12,000 posts..(Including hundreds from me )...
Seriously, there is lot of gyan there.(along with lot of other stuff)..lot of items are given very good treatment/explained with basic physics.

Exactly. Its a great learning resource. It is also the encapsulated history of BR forums …

I was a silent observer in learning mode for most of it as that is not my field.

[sanman]

Even if it was a non-nuclear explosion, it was still nuclear-related (ie. validating technology meant for nuclear test detection)

Just another sign of how shaky CTBT is looking.

[Amber G.]

Even if it was a non-nuclear explosion, it was still nuclear-related (ie. validating technology meant for nuclear test detection)

/sigh/.. EVEN the Bloomberg article says:

While the test is legal, the timing was notable: It came shortly after Russia announced it would no longer adhere to the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty,

I am sure people will keep pushing this "nuclear" bit no matter how silly it may look../sigh/

Per official sources - test at the Nevada National Security Site was a high-explosives test, not a nuclear test. If this is true, then the test would not violate (CTBT which prohibits all nuclear explosions
Sure some have raised concerns that the test could be seen as a provocation by Russia, which has accused the US of developing new nuclear weapons... at worst the test could violate the spirit of the CTBT, But "provocative" is not the same thing..

My point it taking time to put this explanation here is to point out - for those who interested in learning some basics -- there is a BIG (and easily verifiable) difference between nuclear fission (or fusion) and radioactivity ... and articles as published in Bloomberg/Fox as many news-outlets routinely do must be taken with healthy dose of skepticism..