Assembly Elections - 2022 & 2023

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Deans
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022 & 2023

Post by Deans »

vijayk wrote: 03 Dec 2023 13:13 Sameer
@BesuraTaansane
It will be super fun now if CONg falls below 60 in Telangana

CONg leading in 65 seats but 38 of these are margins of less than 500 votes

Dilbiji - one more wish for TG too to wipe the smile off soros agent
The BJP came 2nd in 18 seats in TG, but only 2 of them had a winning margin of under 10,000 votes.
In the seats decided by less than 5000 votes (not 500) Cong won 4, BRS 4, AIMIM 2 and BJP-1

If BJP got their act together in Telengana, they would have got 2 more seats at best.
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022 & 2023

Post by chetak »

Why is no one talking about the AAP? Didn’t their internal survey project them as sweeping? EVMs were rigged.....



They got a whopping public support in all states..

MP:- 0.43% (Nota-0.99%)

Raj:- 0.38% (Nota-0.96%)

CG:- 0.93% (Nota-1.30%)



their idol and alleged inspiration searching for the AAP votes

Image


Wo tihar me sarkar banayenge after SADji becomes a permanent resident there
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022 & 2023

Post by asbchakri »

Looks like its not a smooth sailing for Congress in TG. Lots of talk about revolts against Revanth Reddy and poaching fears.
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022 & 2023

Post by Santosh »

The news of overt and then covert alliance between BJP and TRS seems to have backfired and muslim vote transferred to Khangress. We can expect this to repeat in 2024. Question is how much of TRS vote will transfer to BJP in LS. BJP can keep TRS in line because of Delhi liquor scam but if TRS core voters sit out, BJP won't gain anything. Time to correct its mistake and bring Bandi Sanjay back in full force for 2024. EIther way, TRS is looking at end of the road because muslims are not coming back. TG will become a 2 party race which BJP will eventually dominate.
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022 & 2023

Post by Sachin »

Was watching Twitter very closely for the last four weeks. The weeks before the elections, the tweets fed into me was with pure hatred about Modi, BJP, RSS, Hindutwa. And a few about the assured victory of the secular, liberal, progressive gang. Then counting got over and the truth was out. From yesterday onwards, the tweets are all about cow-belt, North v/s South divide and many on the secular angst & agony. For a change I noticed RoL-ers from Southern states like KL being very abusive of the Northies who vote for BJP and come to KL for work.

The new game plan for seculars seems to be bringing a North v/s South divide. I may sound mean here, if this becomes a possibility BJP should use the river/water issues to make these states go at each other's throats.
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022 & 2023

Post by williams »

Image

Current state ruling parties.
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022 & 2023

Post by vimal »

Sachin wrote: 04 Dec 2023 11:39 For a change I noticed RoL-ers from Southern states like KL being very abusive of the Northies who vote for BJP and come to KL for work.

The new game plan for seculars seems to be bringing a North v/s South divide. I may sound mean here, if this becomes a possibility BJP should use the river/water issues to make these states go at each other's throats.
This is not new. TN/KL Ropers and Rolers have been doing this for a long time. Extremely active and vocal on SM and leave no chance to show Hindus down.
What northies go to KL for work, there are no decent jobs there? Most of the so called northies are actually BD ropers. 100% literate beef curry people can't tell the diff between regions.
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022 & 2023

Post by chetak »

asbchakri wrote: 04 Dec 2023 10:11 Looks like its not a smooth sailing for Congress in TG. Lots of talk about revolts against Revanth Reddy and poaching fears.


asbchakri ji,


the congis had better safeguard their sorry butts in KAR too, because that is also in grave danger of being uprooted with both internal and external contenders eager to weed out the current dispensation
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022 & 2023

Post by chetak »

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chetak
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022 & 2023

Post by chetak »

Revanth Reddy is son in law of ex Centrl Minister Jaipal Reddy and he also a RSS/AVBP man.

Hard choice for pappu.

RR has the strong personal support of DK shivakumar of KAR whom pappu hates, having preferred sidhu over DKS, for the KAR CM's post.

There are many contenders who have surfaced now to grab the CM gaddi.

The leadership landscape in telangana is filled with landmines and factionalism and any slip up in the choice of CM will ensure that the BRS and the BJP will have a fertile ground to plan for and execute a possible joint op Kamal in some months.

One fully trusts pappu to make a complete dogs breakfast of it and bungle the choice of CM, thereby creating multiple hostile factions opposing the CM of choice
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022 & 2023

Post by ricky_v »

ct's flying thick and fast, 1 that i would personally subscribe to though is that the dmk intentionally sabotaged the inc through the disease man, the dmk is cribbing that his utterance was shared far and wide, but he had the opportunity to dissociate himself from that viewpoint for a long time before the final voting and everyone should have known that such words would create trouble for its partner; but now, the inc has no more dictating power at the dotted table and must share seats from its own kitty, good job udh(arma)ay
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022 & 2023

Post by chetak »

ricky_v wrote: 04 Dec 2023 16:10 ct's flying thick and fast, 1 that i would personally subscribe to though is that the dmk intentionally sabotaged the inc through the disease man, the dmk is cribbing that his utterance was shared far and wide, but he had the opportunity to dissociate himself from that viewpoint for a long time before the final voting and everyone should have known that such words would create trouble for its partner; but now, the inc has no more dictating power at the dotted table and must share seats from its own kitty, good job udh(arma)ay


ricky ji,


the little schitt reiterated his statement again some time after that.

It was deliberately done to give him a macho image.

looks like his earlier follically challenged pater, since strutting his thailand transplanted coiffure, is apparently ready to hand over the reins to his pussy faced political heir, and said political heir needs a macho image makeover to wield dravidiya style authority while majestically adorning the CM gaddi and lording it over the loot collection agenda

looks like their calculations went a teeny bit awry....
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022 & 2023

Post by vijayk »

https://twitter.com/j_amaren/status/1731705315513749927

𝒜𝓂𝒶𝓇𝑒𝓃𝒹𝓇𝒶 𝒥❀𝓈𝒽𝒾
@j_amaren
तेलंगाणात कॉग्रेस कशी विजयी झाली आहे हे कॉंग्रेसच्याच घरगड्याच्या तोंडातून ऐका आणि प्रत्येक हिंदू मतदारापर्यंत हा व्हिडीओ नक्की नक्की पाठवा !

Over To You
@BJP4Telangana
🙏🙏🙏
Translated from Marathi by
Hear how the Congress has won in Telangana from the mouth of Congress itself and send this video to every Hindu voter!

Over To You
@BJP4Telangana
🙏🙏🙏
vijayk
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022 & 2023

Post by vijayk »

Sigma Talk @truthbomb6688

Removing Bandi Sanjay due to internal politics reduced bjp to 9 otherwise it wud have been atleast 20 seats.
And nobody wud have got majority and BJp had gud chance of forming alliance or outside support to TRS .
Congress wud have been a bay
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022 & 2023

Post by KL Dubey »

vijayk wrote: 05 Dec 2023 04:13 Sigma Talk @truthbomb6688

Removing Bandi Sanjay due to internal politics reduced bjp to 9 otherwise it wud have been atleast 20 seats.
And nobody wud have got majority and BJp had gud chance of forming alliance or outside support to TRS .
Congress wud have been a bay
Such things are easy to say, but in that case the alternate scenario would be the BRS and INC forming a goremint together, i.e., driving KCR into the Dotdot alliance instead of NDA. These two parties are full of people with common interests and common political ancestry.

That would be tough going for BJP in LS 2024 to face a combined BRS-INC. In fact, that would become pretty much the biggest example of two Dotdot partners able to actually help each other. In most other states, there is no significant vote share of either INC or another Dotdot fellow that can be transferred.

The BJP strategy in the south (includes MH) is extensive.

In MH, BJP has maneuvered into an excellent position as we have discussed earlier in long posts. NDA is poised to sweep MH.

Same in KA. The BJP/JDS tie-up and appeasement of the Yeddi camp all but assures a sweep in LS 2024.

Now TG is in play - Modi sarkar has been "softening up" BRS through other routes. Now the BJP political party (Nadda/Shah) has done another job, which now creates perfect conditions for a BJP/BRS tie-up for LS 2024. That will ensure atleast 13-15 LS seat wins for NDA, which BJP probably getting 6-7 and BRS the rest.

Next is TN - here the play has gotten to a strong start with Annamalai at the helm. Here INC is not strong at all, so it is highly unlikely that Annamalai will be told to hold his horses, unlike Sanjayan was asked to in TG. This time probably the goal is to get to a TG-like position in 2019, i.e. win a few seats and build a solid vote share in the names of Annamalai and Modi.

In AP, the only choice for 2024 is to ally with TDP, which may or may not happen. Things have gone quiet in terms of news, but that does not mean a lack of activity beyond the scenes. There has not been much central law enforcement on YSRC, but Tammudu seems to have panicked and made a move against Anna. Even so, a tie-up with TDP (without Chandranna in the picture) might lead to a good number of NDA seats in AP. Just like in TG, there seems to be considerable anti-incumbency against YSR. The main issue is that the BJP cadre in AP is weak and how to bolster it is not clear yet. Getting NTR Jr and others into the party may be a post-2024 goal.

The final frontier is KL. Not much work going on right now, but post-2024 the commies may face considerable heat. Given the anti-incumbency against "Pinamayi" Vijayan it is quite possible that INC/UDF will sweep KL entirely in LS 2024. So INC in Lok Sabha will become basically Pappu (from Wayanad) and some malayali fellows like Tharoor et al. Even this has a silver lining. Communism is on its deathbed in WB and TR due to TMC and BJP, and LS 2024 and post-election Modi sarkar actions may deal a mortal blow to KL communism, paving the way for stronger emergence of BJP in KL.

Long road, but tough guys like Modi, Shah, and others are waging a long-term war. People of Bharat will support them one state at a time.

A world of difference from the alternative "approach" of calling Hindus stupid, and somehow trying to browbeat them into voting blindly for BJP just because the greens are forced/intimidated to do that by their community leaders (mullahs/ashrafs/wakf walas/personal law walas/zakat walas/goons).
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022 & 2023

Post by Jay »

Santosh wrote: 04 Dec 2023 10:47 The news of overt and then covert alliance between BJP and TRS seems to have backfired and muslim vote transferred to Khangress. We can expect this to repeat in 2024. Question is how much of TRS vote will transfer to BJP in LS. BJP can keep TRS in line because of Delhi liquor scam but if TRS core voters sit out, BJP won't gain anything. Time to correct its mistake and bring Bandi Sanjay back in full force for 2024. EIther way, TRS is looking at end of the road because muslims are not coming back. TG will become a 2 party race which BJP will eventually dominate.
Santosh ji, it's not just the muslim vote, but everone who had a beef with BJP, and TRS went with congress. Even the erstwhile TDP voters who slowly got into TRS votebank because of KTR's 'IT Development' image voted congress this time because of the resulting high drama from the arrest of CB Naidu in Andhra. Also in this list were BJP supporters who chose congress after how BJP leadership seemed to abandon Bandi Sanjay.

Coming to LS elections, BJP will definitely claw back some of the support, but to what extent is hard to say.
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022 & 2023

Post by fanne »

Jay wrote: 05 Dec 2023 07:00

Santosh ji, it's not just the muslim vote, but everone who had a beef with BJP, and TRS went with congress. Even the erstwhile TDP voters who slowly got into TRS votebank because of KTR's 'IT Development' image voted congress this time because of the resulting high drama from the arrest of CB Naidu in Andhra. Also in this list were BJP supporters who chose congress after how BJP leadership seemed to abandon Bandi Sanjay.
Did congress got 420% vote? hain ji, if everyone voted that must be the number?
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022 & 2023

Post by Jay »

fanne wrote: 05 Dec 2023 07:11

Did congress got 420% vote? hain ji, if everyone voted that must be the number?
Definitely got more than BJP/BRS and that's all that matter. Right ji?
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022 & 2023

Post by vijayk »

TELANGANA BJP VOTES

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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022 & 2023

Post by A Deshmukh »

vijayk wrote: 05 Dec 2023 08:54 TELANGANA BJP VOTES
Sad to see Malkajgiri at 20% votes.
At one point this parliamentary seat was one of the few BJP's seats with Bandaru Dattareya representing.
with high % of middle class Hindus this should be a winning seat. need better more active candidates.
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022 & 2023

Post by Sachin »

KL Dubey wrote:so it is highly unlikely that Annamalai will be told to hold his horses
What are the possibilities of BJP tying up with one group of ADMK? At least some kind of tacit understanding. "Rising treasure" has already started whining that he was misquoted on Sanatana Dharma ;).
The final frontier is KL. Not much work going on right now, but post-2024 the commies may face considerable heat. Given the anti-incumbency against "Pinamayi" Vijayan it is quite possible that INC/UDF will sweep KL entirely in LS 2024.
KL BJP is in tatters, again with a "All chiefs, no Indians" kind of stance. Also the commies have also started increasing their propaganda, with the peacefool groups also giving monetary support. The UDF is now seen as a tooth-less opposition. So there are chances that commies will be able to send view of their folks as Lok Sabha MPs. But what I would really like to see is CPI(M) given one more chance (third in a row) to rule Kerala. That would permenantly sink the state financially, and then commies may be ready for the West Bengal treatment.
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022 & 2023

Post by chetak »

the congi goose is slowly getting cooked.....



I.N.D.I. Alliance meeting, called by Congress post defeat in Assembly elections, cancelled after several ‘allies’ pulled out


'Conceit': Congress slammed by INDIA bloc allies after 3-1 election drubbing

https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-ne ... 79678.html

New Delhi: Fault lines in the Opposition's INDIA bloc became apparent on Sunday after partners blamed the Congress party for its 3-0 drubbing against the Bharatiya Janata Party in Hindi heartland states – Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan. Congress allies Samajwadi Party, Janata Dal(United), Trinamool Congress launched sharp attacks against the Mallikarjun Kharge-led party, accusing it of ignoring its INDIA partners.


The Samajwadi Party, which had a massive row with the Congress in the run-up to the elections over seat sharing, said it was Kamal Nath's "indecent" statements against Akhilesh Yadav that led to the party's defeat.

"Former Madhya Pradesh Chief Minister Kamal Nath gave an indecent statement against the SP chief. He called the SP chief, who has been a four-time MP and the Chief Minister of Uttar Pradesh as 'Akhilesh-Vakhilesh' due to which not only Madhya Pradesh, but the people of Bahujan class and backward classes were hurt, and its adverse effect was reflected in the results,” SP spokesperson Manoj Singh Yadav.

The Samajwadi Party had called the Congress party's refusal to give seats "betrayal".
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022 & 2023

Post by ricky_v »

chetak wrote: 04 Dec 2023 21:21 the little schitt reiterated his statement again some time after that.

It was deliberately done to give him a macho image.

looks like his earlier follically challenged pater, since strutting his thailand transplanted coiffure, is apparently ready to hand over the reins to his pussy faced political heir, and said political heir needs a macho image makeover to wield dravidiya style authority while majestically adorning the CM gaddi and lording it over the loot collection agenda

looks like their calculations went a teeny bit awry....
chetak sir, indeed, but this has cost their allies, the inc, big time, even today some dmk guy stated in the parliament that the bjp can only be elected in and i quote, gaumutra states, in state politics, the dmk might conclude to polarise against a potential annamalai storm and thus go on the regular dravidian offensive and at the same time, cut down an overbearing partner to size nationally

so the dmk went about creating the usual dialogue of hindu hatred, which the bjp team caught and spread throughout the country with the helpful addition of subtitles, at this time the inc could have given some sort of condemnation seeing as they were facing upcoming elections, but they tried to portray a secular version of sanatana trying to fit in the dmk viewpoint as well, anything to muddle the religion is anyways a bonus, but no dice. now the inc has neither the electoral heft it had after karanataka nor the goodwill of the majority voters, from the bjp's viewpoint they must keep on circulating the sanatana dharma dialogue in the smverse periodically
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022 & 2023

Post by ricky_v »

no focus yet on the mizoram elections?
https://www.msn.com/en-in/news/India/mi ... r-AA1kXbRy
Zoram People's Movement (ZPM), a six party alliance, is headed toward forming the government on it own in Mizoram. at 12 noon Election Commission trends showed the ZPM leading in 26 of the 40 seats. Among these ZPM has so far clinched 7 wins on Monday as the counting of votes proceeded further.
"Tomorrow or the day after tomorrow I will meet the Governor...Swearing-in will be within this month" Lalduhoma said.

"Mizoram is facing financial crises... That is what we are going to inherit from the outgoing government...We are going to fulfill our commitment... Financial reform is necessary, and for that, we are going to make a resource mobilisation team" Lalduhoma added.

While the ECI has not yet declared the result of the seat, trends indicate that incumbent Chief Minister Zoramthanga is set to lose his Aizawl East - I seat to ZPM's Lalthansanga. After three out of three rounds of counting, he is trailing by 2101 votes.
the incumbent cm lost his seat, the new cm aspirant has an interesting background, was an ips officer, headed security of indira gandhi for a while, was also involved in brokering a peace accord with the then proscribed mnf

https://www.livemint.com/elections/asse ... 85496.html
ZPM, the opposition party, swept the polls, winning 27 of the 40 seats, while the ruling Mizo National Front (MNF), led by Chief Minister Zoramthanga, bagged 10 seats and was leading in one.

Lalduhoma, 74, who is set to become the next chief minister, told Hindustan Times about the priorities of his government.

They are

-Procure ginger, turmeric, chili, and broomsticks at a minimum pre-determined price to support farmers

-Constitute an expert committee and put fiscal reforms in place

-Adopt a policy of zero tolerance for corruption

-Grant permission to the CBI (Central Bureau of Investigation) to act on corruption
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022 & 2023

Post by chetak »

Revanth Reddy to take oath on December 7th as Telangana Chief Minister.


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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022 & 2023

Post by vijayk »

Looks like Vasundhara Raje put up 40 independents reducing BJP seats b at least by 15-20
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022 & 2023

Post by chetak »

vijayk wrote: 05 Dec 2023 20:12 Looks like Vasundhara Raje put up 40 independents reducing BJP seats b at least by 15-20


vijay ji,


its a game that she has played since long

7-8 of those independents may have won

she is also the one who kept gehlot's ship steady
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022 & 2023

Post by KL Dubey »

Sachin wrote: 05 Dec 2023 10:56 What are the possibilities of BJP tying up with one group of ADMK? At least some kind of tacit understanding.
Annamalai has been firing away at both the DMK and AIADMK and I don't see any sign of directions from HQ to rein him in whatsoever. He is focusing on building the party and votebank.

One reason why AIADMK split with BJP is they were worried that Annamalai is taking away their votebank and/or driving some of their voters to DMK.

I don't see much point of rebuilding ties with the official AIADMK led by EPS, he seems to be a dyed in the wool "dravida" poltoo. The current AIADMK is a shadow of its old self and is vulnerable to loss of votebank. It was an "Amma" party all along and the succession has failed miserably due to lack of competent heirs.

There are no more "groups of AIADMK". The courts and ECI have rejected all the other ex-AIADMK factions/claimants including OPS, TTV, VKS and awarded the party to EPS. He has expelled all the other contestants.

There is likely some possibility with the ex-AIADMK groups, although I don't know how many votes these people can bring. OPS and his supporters are looking for options and are believed to be in touch with BJP. TTV has a party called AMMK and is in some kind of working arrangement with OPS. VKS is banned from elections for a few years but might have some backroom role.

It is possible these expelled ex-AIADMK factions could help bolster BJP/NDA, but I doubt the quality and commitment of all these above characters. BJP will no doubt have to do the heavy lifting of getting voters.
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022 & 2023

Post by vijayk »

chetak wrote: 05 Dec 2023 20:31
vijayk wrote: 05 Dec 2023 20:12 Looks like Vasundhara Raje put up 40 independents reducing BJP seats b at least by 15-20


vijay ji,


its a game that she has played since long

7-8 of those independents may have won

she is also the one who kept gehlot's ship steady
if only this lady puts that effort in cleaning up Rajasthan ... woof!!!
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022 & 2023

Post by vijayk »

KL Dubey wrote: 05 Dec 2023 20:52
Sachin wrote: 05 Dec 2023 10:56 What are the possibilities of BJP tying up with one group of ADMK? At least some kind of tacit understanding.
Annamalai has been firing away at both the DMK and AIADMK and I don't see any sign of directions from HQ to rein him in whatsoever. He is focusing on building the party and votebank.

One reason why AIADMK split with BJP is they were worried that Annamalai is taking away their votebank and/or driving some of their voters to DMK.

I don't see much point of rebuilding ties with the official AIADMK led by EPS, he seems to be a dyed in the wool "dravida" poltoo. The current AIADMK is a shadow of its old self and is vulnerable to loss of votebank. It was an "Amma" party all along and the succession has failed miserably due to lack of competent heirs.

There are no more "groups of AIADMK". The courts and ECI have rejected all the other ex-AIADMK factions/claimants including OPS, TTV, VKS and awarded the party to EPS. He has expelled all the other contestants.

There is likely some possibility with the ex-AIADMK groups, although I don't know how many votes these people can bring. OPS and his supporters are looking for options and are believed to be in touch with BJP. TTV has a party called AMMK and is in some kind of working arrangement with OPS. VKS is banned from elections for a few years but might have some backroom role.

It is possible these expelled ex-AIADMK factions could help bolster BJP/NDA, but I doubt the quality and commitment of all these above characters. BJP will no doubt have to do the heavy lifting of getting voters.
People need to believe that BJP is only alternative to DMK thugs like in Telangana, people believed that Revanth Reddy only can take on KCR.
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022 & 2023

Post by williams »

vijayk wrote: 05 Dec 2023 22:35
KL Dubey wrote: 05 Dec 2023 20:52

Annamalai has been firing away at both the DMK and AIADMK and I don't see any sign of directions from HQ to rein him in whatsoever. He is focusing on building the party and votebank.

One reason why AIADMK split with BJP is they were worried that Annamalai is taking away their votebank and/or driving some of their voters to DMK.

I don't see much point of rebuilding ties with the official AIADMK led by EPS, he seems to be a dyed in the wool "dravida" poltoo. The current AIADMK is a shadow of its old self and is vulnerable to loss of votebank. It was an "Amma" party all along and the succession has failed miserably due to lack of competent heirs.

There are no more "groups of AIADMK". The courts and ECI have rejected all the other ex-AIADMK factions/claimants including OPS, TTV, VKS and awarded the party to EPS. He has expelled all the other contestants.

There is likely some possibility with the ex-AIADMK groups, although I don't know how many votes these people can bring. OPS and his supporters are looking for options and are believed to be in touch with BJP. TTV has a party called AMMK and is in some kind of working arrangement with OPS. VKS is banned from elections for a few years but might have some backroom role.

It is possible these expelled ex-AIADMK factions could help bolster BJP/NDA, but I doubt the quality and commitment of all these above characters. BJP will no doubt have to do the heavy lifting of getting voters.
People need to believe that BJP is only alternative to DMK thugs like in Telangana, people believed that Revanth Reddy only can take on KCR.
Exactly. TN people are waiting for a clean alternative. They need to realize that ADMK DMK is the face of the same coin. Annamalai is making a significant impact. If he can forge more organizational infrastructure, there is a chance to increase the vote share significantly.
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022 & 2023

Post by ramana »

I plan to close this thread once govts are sworn in.
People can save the data they want from here.

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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022 & 2023

Post by chetak »

Former Rajasthan CM Ashok Gehlot's OSD reveals that Congress was snooping on Senior Leader Sachin Pilot. His phone was tapped, he was being followed.

Remember Congress and Rahul are raising snooping charges on BJP at multiple forums without any evidence.


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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022 & 2023

Post by venkat_kv »

chetak wrote: 05 Dec 2023 20:31
vijayk wrote: 05 Dec 2023 20:12 Looks like Vasundhara Raje put up 40 independents reducing BJP seats b at least by 15-20


vijay ji,


its a game that she has played since long

7-8 of those independents may have won

she is also the one who kept gehlot's ship steady
vijayk Saar/ Chetak Saar,
In one of Jaipur dialogues discussion it was said that Vasudhara Raje was angling like Ashok Gehlot in trying to reduce the number of elected candidates of their own party so that their negotiation powers increase. Vasundra raje was looking to cap BJP at 85-95 so that she can stitch up a govt with independents and few Gehlot side MLA's from congress to support her as and when needed.
The BJP seemed to give into her in the first list keeping in mind the Karnataka debacle after Lingayats not voting for BJP after keeping Yedurappa away, but they have removed her close confidants in the next lists where they are fighting as independents/rebels.
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022 & 2023

Post by chetak »

but pappu has a pernicious peg@su$ bug up his @$$ which he deceitfully trots out often, usually on his phoren sojourns to wow the local goras


regarding the three state political debacle and the mafia familia's personally precipitated disasters, his advisors and confidents seem to have sold him a pup


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venkat_kv
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022 & 2023

Post by venkat_kv »

Now that the elections are done for telangana, I would like to post what i have come across before this thread is locked.
there is youtube based channel called "Nationalist Hub" (it is run by a journalist Sai Krishna who is a nationalist, went to Kashmir before abrogation of article370 and was showing the ground report on the valley when national media was writing about kashmir stone pelting and burning, did Rudrabishekam near LOC, was moved to tears seeing the conditions of the temples in Kashmir)
Coming to the crux of the matter, there was a discussion on the telangana elections and the panel had analysts Mamidi Giridhar and Suresh Kotchattil (who have a pro BJP bent), Kishore Poreddy of the BJP and Vinod kumar an ex-diplomat representing the congress.
according to Vinod of the Congress
1. The congress didn't have any hope of winning telangana elections a year back. they didn't have any belief and neither had their organization in order.
2. The spectacular win of Congress in Karnataka changed all of that, where a few congress leaders went to karnataka to see how congress won in Karnataka and then after a week it was decided that Congress in telangana should also try to work and see if they can replicate the Karnataka success.
3. Even three months before elections they weren't sure they would win by themselves, they saw a lot of anger against KCR govt, but werent sure how many seats they will win.
4. One month before elections the congress was convinced they were winning 60-70 seats on their own to form govt.


The TRS/BRS govt was very heavy handed in dealing with people and even the MLA's of the party kept dismissing people who came to them with grievances. So the vote this time was against the TRS govt. if KCR had changed some 30-40 of his erring MLA's maybe the result could have been different. the congress manifesto of freebies had very little effect in the final outcome.

Another major issue was the unemployment and govt jobs notification.. There were paper leaks but no action was taken on the officials by the govt and the exam postponed quite a few times, this turned the youth against BRS.

There are other issues where TRS govt giving freebies started giving backlashes-
1. the farmers getting 10k per year per acre were unhappy that big farmers who have 20 acres are getting 2 lakhs per year while they are only getting 10-20k for their one or two acres.
2. The people getting pension were unhappy that divyang people were getting more than them.


It would be prudent to see what strategies the congress followed in Karnataka apart from the freebies and the lingayats moving away from the BJP. that is what has formed the crux of the campaign. Sunil Kanugolu seemed to have run a focused and sustained campaign with clear goals and step by step escalation to take congress to victory.
Last edited by venkat_kv on 06 Dec 2023 10:35, edited 5 times in total.
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022 & 2023

Post by venkat_kv »

Another journalist of nationalist bent Raka Sudhakar (he had read PM Modi's speech into telugu during the recent telangana campaign). Raka Sudhakar has a Sangh background and worked in Assam and is well versed than most telugu jounalists when it comes to the affairs of the northeast.
he had a discussion with another senior journalist who also alluded to similar points of congress man and ex-diplomat Vinod.
1. the congress had been out of power for 10 years in the state of Telangana and they realised that this is probably their last shot and if they don't do anything now the party might be inactive going forward.
2. So even with all the infighting they decided to work together. We had some reports in July and August about the same where the central high command asked the leaders to work together under Revanth Reddy burying their differences.


My thoughts below.
Now coming to the BJP, the BJP was led by Bandi Sanjay impressively, but with the liquor scam some of the BJP leaders jumped the gun and declared that kavitha would be locked up and when that didn't happen it blew back on them. Kavita not getting arrested has many wrinkles to it. Kavita was a bribe giver and not the one directly giving it. it was done through industrialists and her benamis and she would have got bail and that would have given sympathy to KCR as his children being targeted by big bad Mudi and all that. BJP doesn't have any mainstream channels telling their side of the story. kavitha also has a stay order till november to not arrest her. (VijayK posted about this if i am not wrong).

The central leadership told the state leadership to not bank on Kavitha arrest and just focus on the local issues against KCR, but the damage was done as people were waiting to see if kavitha goes to jail. Bandi Sanjay also finished his 3 year term and he was replaced (maybe in hindsight he too could have extension untill telangana elections were done just like Nadda under center).

The complaints against Bandi Sanjay seems to have been done by three people citing as working alone and not taking everyone and working -
1. vivek (this guy is originally from congress and has been changing parties about 6-7 times since 2014 from congress to BRS and most recently to BJP and back to congress.
2. Etala Rajender (suspended by TRS after being pretty much no:2/3 in the TRS since its founding). he has a communist background in the 80's, and joined in the BJP about a year and half as his team said that BJP would help him win his byelection as the congress was floundering then.
3. Dharmapuri Arvind (his father is a long time congressi and he joined the BJP in 2013/2014 and has been fighting against KCR daughter Kavitha since then- firebrand leader who defeated Kavitha in the 2019 Loksabha election.

The idea that TRS and BJP are doing a backroom deal came not from the congress but from media channels and it was picked up by the congress after that. it could have been planted by the congress with money as Suresh Kotchatill alluded. this is the part of narrative building that media was successful and it was the media that was incessantly running news that bandi Sanjay will be replaced (though he eventually got replaced after 2-3 months of this news coming out)
Last edited by venkat_kv on 06 Dec 2023 10:39, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022 & 2023

Post by venkat_kv »

The aftermath
1. congress has a full majority of its own. people hoping that congress will break will be disappointed.
2. The recent drama of the congress leadership before it eventually went to Revanth Reddy was due to the fact that after the results were declared Revanth tried to take the governors appt for the swearing in ceremony.
3. the congress high command is a bit peeved that all of this was done without their permission/blessing. The usual route is Central observers will come do an informal polling and then send the names to the central leadership and then they announce it with the local guys thanking the central leadership and all the assorted stuff.
4. Bhatti Vikramarka also did a padayatra covering 50 constituencies and was a strong contender for the CM post, but its Revanths for now.

TRS/BRS
1. this probably is curtains for KCR as the CM, by the time next elections comes it will be his son leading the party most probably.
2. the biggest question will be will congress let the TRS/BRS party survive. When 2014 came along and TRS formed the govt, most of their mla's were imports from other parties, along with most of them brought in after elections when it came to sarpanch's, zptc chairman and so on. so the party structure is very weak, will it survive has to be seen.
3. The Pragathi Bhavan will be renamed by Revanth Reddy after ambedkar (trying to erase the legacy of what TRS, KCR built after 2014).
4. the state coffers are pretty much empty, when the congress freebies are implemented it will certainly bankrupt the state. But the congress will try to squeeze the local businesses for their and central leadership election funding.

BJP
1. for BJP, this will be missed opportunities. They wouldn't have come to power but if they played their card right and congress disintegrated they would have been the principal opposition with direct shot at power in the next election.
2.Their announcement of BC candidate as CM was a little late and helped them towards the end, but it was late in the overall scheme of things.
3. the BJP won 8 seats and are second in about 18 of the seats. the margin of loss was high in all but 2 seats.
4. The BJP will have to keep some candidates and do work in the constituencies so that when next election comes the local BJP guys get the votes, that is what happened in kamareddy when Venkata Ramana Reddy defeated KCR and Revanth to emerge victorious.
5. All big leaders from BJP have lost including bandi sanjay, dharmapuri arvind, etala rajender (though he went against KCR in Gajvel), raghunandan rao. They should focus on their own constituencies for loksabha and the next election 5 years later, else after congress TRS will come back to power leaving BJP by the wayside.
6. The BJP has a lot of fighters, but will also need to address media communications. they are not only up against TRS Congress but also against media houses that think they can set agendas and decide who get elected. Some of the BJP supporters were disheartened after bandi Sanjay was replaced and they were not sure if their high command was involved with KCR and TRS looking at non stop media coverage.
7. the people of the state don't know what central schemes are coming to them. eg is the rice given in ration shops where the central govt gives almost 25-27 in subsidy while the state govt gives 5-6 for a final 2 rupees kilo rice scheme. but poeple think its KCR schemes.
BJP needs to send the info out, to puncture the narratives coming in.
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022 & 2023

Post by vimal »

IBTL
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Re: Assembly Elections - 2022 & 2023

Post by SRajesh »

The 'Burnol' ads on the Wire/Print/and the rest of the independent media is pure joy to read and listen, especially Thappad/Siddarth/Begum etc.
And R Guha claiming that BJP is destroying the nation for generations to come.
Per him the best governments at the centre both in terms of secularism and growth was when there were Kichadi Governments yes Kichadi governments at the centre!!
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