Houthi/Iran drone strikes on Gulf shipping

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 26 Dec 2023 00:07

Please post news of Houthi drone strikes on shipping in the Gulf and Arabian Sea here.

Houthis are hitting ships traversing this area

However MC Chem Pluto got struck by a drone. 220 miles from Indian coast

Damage is extensive but ship is large.
It's Indian crew but foreign flagged.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 26 Dec 2023 00:10

A fire incident suspected to be caused by a drone attack on merchant vessel MV Chem Pluto in the Arabian Sea 217 nautical miles off Porbandar coast.

ICGS Vikram has been directed to move towards the merchant vessel.

The vessel has crude oil and was going towards Mangalore from a port in Saudi Arabia. As per inputs received, the fire has been extinguished but it has affected its functioning. All crew are safe which includes around 20 Indians. The ICGS Vikram has alerted all ships in the area to provide assistance to it.

Indian Navy to join ICG in responding to the MV Chem Pluto situation off the Porbandar coast.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 26 Dec 2023 00:11

Another vessel (Gabon Flagged) MV SaiBaba was hit by another missile/drone today.

Indian Navy has responded to the situation.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 26 Dec 2023 00:12

The Indian Navy has been pretty busy the past few days responding to threats close to Indian AOR waters.

The incidents didn’t take place within Indian AOR, but within proximity.

—> From aggregated info, at-least 06 Indian Navy Ships (Cruisers and Destroyers) are currently responding to the recent drone/missile situation :

Affected vessels include:
MV Chem Pluto (Liberia Flagged)
MV SaiBaba (Gabon Flagged)

The US Pentagon claims Iranian backed Houthis (main architect behind the ongoing Red Sea crisis) are behind the attacks. The Yemeni Houthis have been attacking ships passing through the Bab al-Mandab Strait at the southern end of the Red Sea ever since the start of the Israel-Hamas war.

Is The Red Sea crisis is slowly spilling into Indian water? Or is there someone deliberately trying to provoke India into joining the crisis?

—> In a different incident, a week ago, a merchant vessel was boarded by unknown pirates off the coast of Yemen and brought to Somalia.

Affected Vessel
MV Ruen (Malta Flagged)

The vessel remains in Somali captivity, but atleast 01 crew member has been rescued by the Indian Navy after due negotiations.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 26 Dec 2023 00:13

MV Chem Pluto has reached the Mumbai Port, escorted by ICGS Vikram.

ICG, Indian Navy, and other relevant intelligence agencies to carry out a joint investigation to ascertain how and the reason to why the ship was attacked.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 26 Dec 2023 00:13

Visuals of damages onboard MC Chem Pluto.

The Indian Navy in a preliminary report has confirmed it was a drone strike.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 26 Dec 2023 00:16

Why are the Houthi's targeting Israel? [Pics in next post] Understand this news in perspective with some context.

A few weeks ago news came in that Qatar had put close to a dozen Indian naval officers on death penalty. Just recently there was a relief with their appeals for a court procedure, accepted. What happened in between?

India has changed its foreign policy across regions & while dealing anything in Middle East, its go-to partners is no longer Iran, but Saudi Arabia & UAE. Here too their help was tapped along with US & Qatar (a supporter of Houthis along with many others like Hamas, Hezbollah, Pakistan) was reminded of the 2017 blockade that ended after 3 years with change of guard in US in 2020. This time, US too was on-boarded by India & hence the consequences would be fatal for Qatar.

You'd observe that the ceasefire in Israel-Hamas war also coincides with the resolution of this conflict suggesting the clout India has on global events now. Also observe the two sides in the blockade crisis are exactly the same two sides in the Israel-Hamas war:
Turkey, Qatar & Iran (which has lately distanced itself from this mess) on one side & other powerful Islamic nations on the other. It is worth recalling that when this war began, VidurNeeti had posted the same analysis stating that Saudi Arabia & UAE will take charge of cleansing Middle East with radicalism. And that, Israel's aim in Gaza too is de-radicalisation so that the IMEC project sails through & bring prosperity in the region. It's taking shape exactly the same way.

The Houthi rebels are therefore targeting Israel as a spanner in this prosperity will keep radicalism intact. It'll try to stop any normalisation of relations these Islamic countries enter into with Israel.

Why is Japanese PM rushing to meet North Korea's Kim? Let's leave that for the readers to Google a bit & understand.

All these are inter-related. To understand one event, VidurNeeti first makes you understand the entire story so that any future development is for you to understand yourself, without depending on anyone.

Follow VidurNeeti at -
https://t.me/VidurNeeti

(Related pics in next post as people don't believe a news till it comes in media, even though they teach you no analysis)

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 26 Dec 2023 00:19

https://m.economictimes.com/news/india/ ... 245913.cms

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 26 Dec 2023 00:23

Chinese Pak angle to te shipping attacks

viewtopic.php?p=2610132#p2610132

Or even US?

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 26 Dec 2023 00:26

https://twitter.com/avijeet_writes/stat ... 1wA2Q&s=19

Images in the Tweet

Gabon flagged vessel is MV Chem Pluto and hit in the south Red Sea.

It is the MV Saibaba that got hit 217 nm off Porbandar, Gujarat.

and

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 26 Dec 2023 00:33

Most likely Pakis have contacts on dark.side. The drone strike on ship 290 miles from India is definitely out of area for Houthi.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 26 Dec 2023 00:41

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_at ... Chem_Pluto

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 26 Dec 2023 00:46

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Houthi_ ... he_Red_Sea

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 26 Dec 2023 00:47

Quite clearly the strike on MV Chem Pluto is by Iran and not Houthis.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 26 Dec 2023 00:56

ramana wrote: ↑26 Dec 2023 00:47 Quite clearly the strike on MV Chem Pluto is by Iran and not Houthis.

Question is with what? Targeting it 220miles from.Indian coast is delibrate and not happenstance.
The justification is poor that it's owned by an Israeli billionaire.

fanne · Post by **fanne** » 26 Dec 2023 01:24

Or a third party that may want to cloud things further

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 26 Dec 2023 02:19

https://x.com/ANI/status/1739323015517864127?s=20

Damage pictures to MV Chem Pluto

and

Gives the location of the weapon strike is aft of the ship.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 26 Dec 2023 02:21

The damage looks like a shaped charge, not a blast warhead.
Unless it hit with such force that it penetrated the ship superstructure and then exploded
And note the large diameter hole in the ship floor.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 26 Dec 2023 15:35

Could the MV ~~Sai Baba~~ Chem Pluto attack off Porbandar be a Pak false flag attack that missed the target or was sending a message?
Attack location is too far for Houthis.

sanman · Post by **sanman** » 26 Dec 2023 17:30

ramana wrote: ↑26 Dec 2023 00:47 Quite clearly the strike on MV Chem Pluto is by Iran and not Houthis.

Iranian spy ships are guiding all Houthi strikes against shipping. Without Iranian info in realtime, the Houthis would have no way to accurately aim their drones/rockets/whatever.

We obviously can't take their denials at face value.

We need proxies of our own, to dissuade the Iranians. I read there's a new deal on for India to sell Akaash SAMs to Oman.

The problem with this Middle East is that it's located right in the Middle.

sanman · Post by **sanman** » 26 Dec 2023 17:36

sanman · Post by **sanman** » 26 Dec 2023 17:38

ramana wrote: ↑26 Dec 2023 15:35 Could the MV Sai Baba attack off Porbanndar be a Pak false flag attack that missed the target or was sending message?
Attcak location is too far for Houthis.

We can't afford to take these attacks lying down -- otherwise Pak (and maybe even China) will be happy to insert themselves into the situation, and make it even worse.

Manish_P · Post by **Manish_P** » 26 Dec 2023 18:26

sanman wrote: ↑26 Dec 2023 17:30 ...
We need proxies of our own, to dissuade the Iranians.
...

+1

Super power SOP. They get their proxies to do all the initial fighting for them

In any case it is not something we haven't done before, we have armed the mukti bahini, the northern alliance, ...

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 26 Dec 2023 23:54

Iran denies attacking the MV Chem Pluto

https://www.timesofisrael.com/iran-deni ... ear-india/

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 27 Dec 2023 05:01

Note IN briefs their chief

https://aninews.in/news/world/asia/stro ... 227030023/

Report does not say exact location when strike occured.

Luxtor · Post by **Luxtor** » 27 Dec 2023 06:24

As others have mentioned, this attack on India bound shipping could very well be done by the pukis. It's true that the location of the attack that close to India's coast is too far for the houthis to manage but perfect for the pukis. It looks like it's time for "houthi" attacks on puki bound shipping also.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 27 Dec 2023 09:10

The attack on MV Chem Pluto is unique. Let's look at some facts.

- Owner of MV Chem Pluto is an Israeli billonaire
- Ship is registered to Gabon
- Carrying oil cargo from Saudi Arabia to Indian port
Aftermath

-IN confirms that the hit was a drone strike. They have the debris and briefed the IN chief

- Rajnath Singh vows to find the attackers even at the bottom of the sea.

- Ship damage pictures shows the hit was at the stern as ship is moving away.
- Iran denies all involvement

So message is to Israel, KSA, Gabon/third party flag countries, India.

Quo bono?

Houthis- Don't make laugh
Hamas- Ditto
Pak- Maybe but will get retaliation like Balakot.

US- high probability. Recall FONOPS. Sends multiple messages to all.

venkat_kv · Post by **venkat_kv** » 27 Dec 2023 12:10

Ramana Saar,
there is one more actor that is probably missing in your analysis atleast for the MV Sai Baba and MV Chem Pluto attacks.

Iran probably knows that any missteps from it will result in the US bombing it just like Iraq and they are waiting for an opportunity to bomb Iran. So when they say that they are not involved maybe there is an element of truth as their survival depends on it. Also drones fired all the way from Yemen, by houthis missing all the radars and countries in between and exactly striking the ships near Indian EEZ doesn't really tell the whole tale.

Dean Saar in another thread mentioned that its easy to get ship logs and so forth but there are hundreds of ships traveling and to accurately target the exact MV Chem pluto and MV Sai baba needs surveillance and targeting capabilities far beyond the houthi rebels. conversely if houthi rebels had this sophisticated gear that would mean Iran has much advanced drone system which i don't see on the ground.

on the other hand this is quite within the realm of US capabilities and could be using to draw India away from the russian iran corridor along with the targeting of India going on recently. the recent Pannun episode and the Canadian poodle trying to rile up with the recent uptick of attack in the Rajouri sector and finally the bomb going off near Israeli embassy, all could point the same. the ships carrying russian oil were to be targeted by not giving them any insurance. this targeting of only Indian bound ships will increase premiums and the assorted costs to Indian commerce.

This brings us to the last probable actor "Turkiye". This is a country that is opposed to the IMEC corridor and Erdogan has vowed that no corridor is possible without Turkiye being included and they also posses drone tech to target and maybe Pakistan provided logistic base for the attacks in the worst case.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 27 Dec 2023 13:33

https://twitter.com/NewsX/status/173967 ... VHhPg&s=19

This one shows the drone path.

How did the drone single.out the MV Chem Pluto so far away?

drnayar · Post by **drnayar** » 27 Dec 2023 13:51

ramana wrote: ↑27 Dec 2023 13:33 https://twitter.com/NewsX/status/173967 ... VHhPg&s=19

This one shows the drone path.

How did the drone single.out the MV Chem Pluto so far away?

Chem Pluto was deliberately targeted to send a message to India. The owner would get his insurance payments. The US is most likely the actor here through one its 3 letter agencies.

Maybe CIA is not done with pannun..

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 27 Dec 2023 21:47

See the picture with the hole in it?
Looks like the warhead punched through to create the hole.
Looks like a shaped charge.
Need to find entrance hole in sheet metal for RPG.

Alternate is the early damage was from a precursor warhead and hole is by the secondary warhead.

Iran had a tandem warhead for RPG that Hamas was using with effect in Gaza.

sanman · Post by **sanman** » 27 Dec 2023 22:22

Preliminary information from forensic investigation says drone was Iranian Shahed drone:

Do we not have any ELINT capabilities to trace where drone control signals are coming from?

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 27 Dec 2023 23:00

Looks most likely drone. Shaeed 136. Has a camera for target location per UK.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HESA_Shahed_136
See Ref 18.
Need to study the warhead. Was it shaped charge or what?

https://www.janes.com/defence-news/news ... attack-uav

drnayar · Post by **drnayar** » 27 Dec 2023 23:02

Any reason why the US cannot use a shaheed drone?!! they are plenty from where they come in Ukraine. unexploded ones

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 27 Dec 2023 23:04

Thinking again if its the Shaheed-136 the drone struck the deck plate creating that hole and emerged out of the stern.

The petalling metal shows its inside-out effect.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 27 Dec 2023 23:11

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bcaf6h5BTZI&t=279s

Hindustan Times video reported by Shishir Gupta

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 27 Dec 2023 23:31

If you meant ship based radars, only when they are in that zone with radar turned on. For sky based, we need to have multiple a/C or surveillance drones flying 24/7 to get only part of the required coverage.

If you see NATO air activity around Ukraine you'll see that the amount of flying required is humongous. But still Russian drones mostly get through.

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 27 Dec 2023 23:36

If it's Shaheed type drones they can be launched from small boats and guided to target from few KMs away. Tracking vessels is public domain info these days, they can simply lie in wait, get info from who ever is ordering the hit, and launch the drone from their dinghy and then disappear.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 27 Dec 2023 23:45

venkat_kv wrote: ↑27 Dec 2023 12:10 Ramana Saar,
there is one more actor that is probably missing in your analysis atleast for the MV Sai Baba and MV Chem Pluto attacks.

......

This brings us to the last probable actor "Turkiye". This is a country that is opposed to the IMEC corridor and Erdogan has vowed that no corridor is possible without Turkiye being included and they also posses drone tech to target and maybe Pakistan provided logistic base for the attacks in the worst case.

KV Venkat you may be on to something right!

How about a Turkish Bayrakter (supplied to Ukraine to give plausible deniability, Elensky also has a grudge wrt India) drone launched from Maldives to hit the ship midway between Mumbai and Mangalore?
President Moizu's first visit was to Erdogan.

sanman · Post by **sanman** » 27 Dec 2023 23:47

How can we get more data when the next attack happens?

Can't we collect ELINT information to see where the drone is being controlled from?