Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

bala · Post by **bala** » 19 Dec 2023 22:26

End Game UKRAINE and beyond. Interesting discussion by Indian Army Ajay Singh and P R Shankar. The Chess game involves Russia, China, USA and Euro. Does it suit India and what benefits are going to come India's way.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DCAaIjBXPZk

srai · Post by **srai** » 21 Dec 2023 12:23

Ukrainian soldier’s gear -> 65-70 items in the kit

Manish_P · Post by **Manish_P** » 21 Dec 2023 13:53

A thing we need to prepare for..

Ukraine’s Scythe Drone Is All About Striking Far Away As Cheaply As Possible

The Ukrainian military has received an initial batch of a new kind of relatively low-cost, long-range, one-way attack drone. While it's just one of a number of types in various stages of development or operation intended to hit targets deep inside Russia, it provides a good example of how Ukraine is doing anything it can to gain long-range strike 'combat mass' and evolving what is still a relatively new weapons frontier in the process.

"Our goal is to produce 1,000 units monthly," cofounder Francisco Serra-Martins said, "but it is not realistic to scale in just one quarter." Initial production capacity stands at 100 units a month, with 500 a month being the plan in the near term, and 1,000 a month being the ultimate target.

A "no frills... payload delivery system," the company notes, Scythe boasts a forward and rear set of wings connected to a rectangular fuselage. It's capable of being launched under its own power via tricycle gear from short strips. It can be sent on its way via catapult or by small rocket boosters. The drone has a wingspan of seven-and-a-half feet and a maximum takeoff mass of 220 pounds. A small gas engine and propeller mounted at the back provides thrust.

The drone can carry a total payload of 94 pounds, and typically carries a 42 kilogram warhead similar to those used by Iranian Shahed 136 loitering munitions employed by Russia. Serra-Martins has indicated that a standard payload for the drone consists of a thermobaric warhead or a pair of 122mm artillery rounds. On top of this, it's also capable of transmitting video to operators, as an optional add-on, allowing for specific targets to be pinpointed. However, this is only possible within radio line-of-sight between the drone and its operator, otherwise, the drones are autonomously flown by autopilot.

Scythe can achieve cruising speeds of some 144 kilometers per hour (around 89 miles per hour) and top speeds of 200 kilometers per hour (around 124 miles per hour). Scythe has a maximum endurance of six-and-a-half hours, while its maximum range is at least 750 kilometers (466 miles), with some reporting suggesting the figure is in fact somewhere in the region of 750-900 kilometers (between 466 and 559 miles).

According to Terminal Autonomy, the system represents a "price point for cost per kilogram payload delivered to the target previously inconceivable over distances of 750km." "Scythe is the culmination of… efforts to offer strategic capabilities at the very lowest prices," it notes. As per the company's older One Way Aerospace website, the system's starting cost is $25,999 USD. However, more recent figures suggest that the baseline configuration costs as little as $15,000 USD, with additional features potentially raising the figure to around the $30,000 mark.

mody · Post by **mody** » 23 Dec 2023 13:02

https://www.msn.com/en-in/news/world/uk ... 6ba4&ei=88

Ukraine is claiming to have shot down 3 Su-34s. Officially Russia has not confirmed, but apparently some Russian bloggers have confirmed the incident.
Ukraine moved the Patriot batteries to the Kherson region and fired on the Russian jets from the west side of the Dnipro river.
Most of the intelligence would have been provided by the US with its AWACS flying non-stop and probably networking with the Patriot battery to shoot down the Russian jets.
If confirmed, this is a big loss. Also shows that Russia could not detect the movement of the Patriot systems so close to the front line. The systems would have been moved all the way from near Kyiv to the southern front.
This also further shows that Russia is not really able to interdict the Ukrainian supply lines. Without steady supply of men and material, the Ukrainian front line would have collapsed a long time back.

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 23 Dec 2023 13:11

Russian bloggers confirmed loss of 1 Su34, shows NATO and Russia like WW2 are refining tactics. NATO has replicated Russian tactics of the last few months of shooting Ukrainian Aircraft of using A50/S400 Combo, I think Ukrainian lost more than 20 Aircraft like this in the last 2 months.

Now Russians have to counter a copy of thier own tactic.

hgupta · Post by **hgupta** » 23 Dec 2023 13:34

Su-34 plane is not a very manueverable plane at low altitude. Besides this war shows that flying at low altitudes in this day and age of modern AAMs is just plain suicide. Long range standoff weapons are the order of the day.

srai · Post by **srai** » 23 Dec 2023 16:36

Su-34s have been dropping LRGBs at max ranges, which means they are flying really high.

Patriot SAM systems have a range of 160km for high altitude aerial targets. They don’t need to be that close to the frontlines.

The tactic was to delay switching-on Patriot FCR until the Su-34s were well within its engagement envelope; so little warning and no escape.

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 23 Dec 2023 16:48

If the West has copied the Russian system, Patriots ground battery will not switch on its radar, rather the missile will move into the general area of Aircraft based on inputs from AWACS and use switch on its missile seeker for last 10-15 kms.

That is how the Russians have been using S 400 in the last 2 months against Ukrainian Aircraft. It's seems NATO is also now developed this tactic.

hgupta · Post by **hgupta** » 23 Dec 2023 23:47

Russia needs to step up its electronic jamming and SEAD game. And they need to get its stealth fighters and bombers out as fast as possible. This war has completely shown the value of stealth bombing and aerial electronic warfare, not to mention anti-satellite warfare and satellite jamming.

sanman · Post by **sanman** » 25 Dec 2023 19:35

NATO to put base in Ukraine?

srai · Post by **srai** » 01 Jan 2024 00:40

^^^
HT content has been very biased towards supporting the Russian-angle.

srai · Post by **srai** » 01 Jan 2024 06:10

2023 … a stalemate

A whole year of Russian offensive and Ukrainian counteroffensive but resulted in minimal gains by both the sides.

srai · Post by **srai** » 01 Jan 2024 07:09

Losses incurred both sides 24.02.2022 - 31.12.2023

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/sta ... 6089043351

https://www.russiamatters.org/blog/russ ... ec-12-2023

Biases in reporting:

https://theloop.ecpr.eu/estimating-troo ... raine-war/

sanman · Post by **sanman** » 02 Jan 2024 11:03

mody · Post by **mody** » 05 Jan 2024 13:31

https://www.msn.com/en-in/news/world/sh ... bc02&ei=27

As per this report, Ukraine claims to have shot down a total of 25 Kinzhal missiles since the 1st interception in May 2023 and shot down all 10 missiles fired recently with Patriot missiles. Any corroborating reports from the Russian side (official or un-official).

Though as per the report, the amount of intelligence data being collected by both Russian and NATO is unprecedented. The US has probably gained more intelligence on Russian weapon systems and tactics then they have since the collapse of the Soviet Union.

bala · Post by **bala** » 06 Jan 2024 07:37

Did the Russians Make American Rocket System Useless I Sqn Ldr Vijainder Thakur I Aadi

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=olqXYamMy8w

The American HiMars was touted was a wonder equipment and Ukraine started its use against Russia. However in a short time the Russians figured out a method whereby they made the HiMars useless. The HiMars were made to be nimble, they had 6 rockets and when emptied they can scoot away. Return fire tracking the HiMars would not get to its target because of shoot and scoot. However the Russians found a method to defeat the system. Using long lingering drones (orions) and satellite data they targeted the HiMars within shoot and scoot times. This made the HiMars subject to destruction. Suddenly the HiMars lost its key advantage. However there may be yet another way out to defeat such schemes, only time will tell.

On a side note, what can India learn from such experience. The DRDO chief has said that the defense org should be thinking of new weapons systems specific for the threats that India faces, which requires some huge out-of-the-box thinking. India requires start ups to do innovation and breakthroughs, which the education system in India should encourage. There are many in the armed forces who given some leeway can come up with systems that are brilliant for the Indian threat scenario. Hope to see a thousand flowers bloom.

srai · Post by **srai** » 06 Jan 2024 08:17

^^^
HIMARS are still active and taking out C2, logistical hubs, and other high value equipments.

How many destroyed using the above method?

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 06 Jan 2024 08:34

The Russians have been using the combination of Orlan and Lancet as a hunter killer combination for the last several months. They have killed several M109, and other systems on the battle field.

If this is what is being claimed as an anti HIMARS tactic. Then, this is the first time they have succeeded in hitting a HIMARS using such tactics.

However, the Russians have been jamming HIMARS guidance signal for a very long time. That has essentially resulted in Ukrainians in using it as conventional rockets. That in turn has significantly degraded it's effectiveness in battle as well.

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 06 Jan 2024 08:57

srai wrote: ↑01 Jan 2024 07:09 Losses incurred both sides 24.02.2022 - 31.12.2023

I've analysed losses of both sides in my blog. After writing these posts, subsequent numbers from western sources, or 3rd parties (for Russian losses) appear to confirm my estimates.

Link to the relevant posts:

https://rpdeans.blogspot.com/2023/09/uk ... ights.html
https://rpdeans.blogspot.com/2023/10/uk ... s-and.html

srai · Post by **srai** » 07 Jan 2024 06:05

^^*
Can you please put your numbers in a summarized tabular format? Makes it visually easier to see your estimates and make comparisons.

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 07 Jan 2024 09:50

srai wrote: ↑07 Jan 2024 06:05 ^^*
Can you please put your numbers in a summarized tabular format? Makes it visually easier to see your estimates and make comparisons.

There is a lot of analysis on how the figures were derived, In summary:

Irreplaceable losses = KIA, Seriously wounded and Prisoner.
Ukraine: 450,000 (145,000 dead, 290,000 seriously wounded, 20,000 estimated POW)
Russia: 150,000 (40500 known dead, 7-10,000 believed dead but not identified), 100,000 wounded and not fighting, negligible POW)

Russian dead includes Wagner group (mostly ex convicts).

To put the numbers in perspective. The strength of the Russian army in its combat formations (Teeth), before its announced expansion last year
was 280,000 - This is the combined strength of all Rifle, Mechanised, Armour and Artillery brigades. Ukrainian estimates of Russian irreplaceable losses are in excess of 1 million (350,000 KIA and 2 seriously wounded for 1 killed), which gives you an idea of how much estimates have been inflated.

mody · Post by **mody** » 07 Jan 2024 14:38

https://youtu.be/EWjMr3RZ8Ss?si=reSlpbvFs-K2vvO0

New Video from the Austrian military academy after almost 6 months. A good analysis of the failed Ukranian counter offensive

Hriday · Post by **Hriday** » 07 Jan 2024 16:15

Deans wrote: ↑07 Jan 2024 09:50
srai wrote: ↑07 Jan 2024 06:05 ^^*
Can you please put your numbers in a summarized tabular format? Makes it visually easier to see your estimates and make comparisons.
There is a lot of analysis on how the figures were derived, In summary:

Irreplaceable losses = KIA, Seriously wounded and Prisoner.
Ukraine: 450,000 (145,000 dead, 290,000 seriously wounded, 20,000 estimated POW)
Russia: 150,000 (40500 known dead, 7-10,000 believed dead but not identified), 100,000 wounded and not fighting, negligible POW)

Russian dead includes Wagner group (mostly ex convicts).

@Deans, can you please answer the below question ? I had read almost every post of yours on Ukraine war but would like a bit more clarity on the issue.

Everybody knows it is the relentless supply of western money, weapons , EU citizenship for Ukranians that made Ukraine fight Russia.

Why Russia didn't consider this flow of money and weapons as a red line for direct war with USA and Europe? I meant not a conventional war but threatening a low yield nuclear weapon strike on an inhabited western land or ocean as a warning shot in the initial stages of war or when western weapons are pouring into Ukraine.

Had Russia issued a direct threat to western support, it would have been far easier to conquer Ukraine.

Western nations are far more rational in decision making than a Pakistan or China.

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 07 Jan 2024 17:25

Hriday wrote: ↑07 Jan 2024 16:15
@Deans, can you please answer the below question ? I had read almost every post of yours on Ukraine war but would like a bit more clarity on the issue.

Everybody knows it is the relentless supply of western money, weapons , EU citizenship for Ukranians that made Ukraine fight Russia.

Why Russia didn't consider this flow of money and weapons as a red line for direct war with USA and Europe? I meant not a conventional war but threatening a low yield nuclear weapon strike on an inhabited western land or ocean as a warning shot in the initial stages of war or when western weapons are pouring into Ukraine.

Had Russia issued a direct threat to western support, it would have been far easier to conquer Ukraine.

Western nations are far more rational in decision making than a Pakistan or China.

I don't believe Russian considered the extent of NATO support for Russia (or sanctions). That said, using Nukes in a conventional war - when Russia's existence, or its command & control or nukes are not threatened, is not part of Russia's nuclear doctrine. In response, the US might well extend its nuclear umbrella to Ukraine, leaving Russia worse off than currently. For the same reason, Russian won't `help' Iran get nukes.

In the current situation, NATO has not just given $ 200 billion in aid, but literally all the weapons it can spare. In 2022, it was old Soviet era stocks, in 2023 it was stock meant for their frontline units. The German army stock of ammunition is 1 day. UK has 40 tanks. A third of Europe's entire SAM batteries and missiles are deployed in Ukraine and are still unable stop Russian missiles. If Russia now wins, Europe will be unable to defend itself against Russia, particularly if a new US President reduces the US commitment to NATO. SO, Russia's strategy may be to degrade Ukraine and NATO further this year, while minimising losses and damages to their economy and then starting negotiations with a new US President.

Lisa · Post by **Lisa** » 07 Jan 2024 19:51

In response, the US might well extend its nuclear umbrella to Ukraine, leaving Russia worse off than currently.

I personally doubt that the Americans will sacrifice themselves at Ukraine's altar when they are not even willing to guarantee its current airspace. One just needs to see the scale of the air corridor they created for Israel with military supplies even whilst such a space was under potential rocket fire with its daily reaction to the same in Ukraine. Even the pukies fell cheered up when they look at how used the condom called Ukraine is!

srai · Post by **srai** » 07 Jan 2024 20:02

^^^
Both sides are trying hard to degrade the other.

Heard somewhere Putin is willing to fight for another 5-years. He is definitely trying to outlast the Western appetite.

On the other hand, if NATO doesn’t stop Russia at Ukraine then EU will be facing Russians at their own gates soon enough.

Let’s see who will outlast whom.

Winner so far have been the MIC of many countries (US, EU, Russia, Ukraine, Turkey, Iran, North Korea, South Korea, China and more). All the countries are ramping up production and replenishing stocks with increases in their defense budgets.

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 08 Jan 2024 07:25

Russia at the gates of NATO? Where are those gates? Poland? It had an excellent army when I last checked. Had NATO not expanded from German borders, Russians would have had to cross Poland to come to NATO borders. But then it expanded to the East, and it is NATO, in fact, that went into the border of Russia when they made Baltic republics part of NATO.

Why do Russians want to occupy Poland full of hostile poles and then attack Germany and so on? What purpose does it serve? Till recently they were selling gas to same Germany rather cheaply. In fact, most of the EU was getting their energy supplies and other items from Russia?

The West spinning lot of ideas which has no basis in real world. Let us not further spread such things.

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 08 Jan 2024 07:44

NATO tried doing what Hitler and Napoleon did to get to Russian resources. Russia would have been attacked anyway after converting Belarus into a Vassal state along with what Ukraine is , that what the Belarus elections in 2021 where about, the Russians woke up to the scheme rather lately. If NATO agrees for neutrality of Finland, Baltic, Ukraine etc. Conflict in Europe with Russia is over. But a United and strong Europe was never in UK USA favour, they will never allow that. Hitler made the same mistake thinking he can have some sort of peace deal. US UK never opposed mainland Europe anti semtism which had been going on for decades till Germany had wiped them out in Europe during WW2.

The idea of Munich agreement was to break the French Chechoslovak USSR agreement and make Hitler in alliance with Poland to attack the USSR, but Polish German talks broke down in early 1939 and Hitler thought he could have the whole thing for himself.

Some forum members drinking propaganda cool aid think it is some sort European defense or NATO is a defensive alliance. The key has always been to push Russia so hard that they want a buffer zone or a Stalin wanted to dominate in the post WW2 vacuum.

srai · Post by **srai** » 08 Jan 2024 15:42

“Propaganda cool aid” being drunk by proponents of both sides

srai · Post by **srai** » 08 Jan 2024 15:45

…
The West spinning lot of ideas which has no basis in real world. Let us not further spread such things.

Just like “de-nazification” of Ukraine

anmol · Post by **anmol** » 08 Jan 2024 16:04

srai wrote: ↑08 Jan 2024 15:45
…
The West spinning lot of ideas which has no basis in real world. Let us not further spread such things.
Just like “de-nazification” of Ukraine

It is pretty much established that Azov Brigade is neo-nazi...

https://www.jpost.com/diaspora/us-lifts ... tia-441884

srai · Post by **srai** » 08 Jan 2024 16:13

^^^
Just like the Wagner founding member

srai · Post by **srai** » 08 Jan 2024 16:18

Looks like long term trench warfare being setup …

Going to be very hard to destroy.

Kati · Post by **Kati** » 08 Jan 2024 21:32

^^^^
Bunker-busters won't work?

srai · Post by **srai** » 09 Jan 2024 16:22

Kati wrote: ↑08 Jan 2024 21:32 ^^^^
Bunker-busters won't work?

How many “expensive” bunker-busters do you want to use to take out 6 soldiers? They are also well camouflaged/hidden. These are relatively small (6mX2m) bunkers.

VishnuS · Post by **VishnuS** » 10 Jan 2024 10:23

srai wrote: ↑08 Jan 2024 16:18 Looks like long term trench warfare being setup …

Going to be very hard to destroy.

This looks like a huge waste of time and money.

Air filtration is the weakest link of these bunkers.

We've seen drones dropping grenades, those soldiers will be buried alive if a couple of grenades are dropped on ventilation / entry / exit shafts.

I bet everyone of these bunkers are geo tagged, when the time is ripe, then a $1000 drone will drop a couple of grenades and that will be the end of it.

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 10 Jan 2024 11:11

Why do you want bunker Busters for such locations.

A lazer/ GPS guided 155 will be sufficient.

So will be small drone launched munitions developed by DRDO.

srai · Post by **srai** » 10 Jan 2024 17:37

^^^
These are buried at the minimum 1.5m. Some looks like are being dug in few meters deeper.

I don’t think 155mm has enough cratering capability to damage these easily. Will require multiple precise shots over the same spot. First, they need to find the location precisely as well.

With respect to drones dropping grenades on the vents, it really depends on how well those vents/shafts are designed and concealed. If they are making the effort to dig deep and install these and with the knowledge of drone threats they would be “fools” to not engineer all aspects carefully. For example, putting a simple combat netting over the vents would bounce off any grenades dropped by drones. We already see this sort of tactics being used around trenches and machine gun nests .

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 10 Jan 2024 18:16

My 2 cents, the way they are been carried these are extremely lightweight and not armoured, a152mm shell does not need to land on top, even if it lands a bit yo the side it can bury the people alive. This provides as much security as a normal trench would, nothing less nothing more.

Ukrainians had built far better fortification s from 2014 in Donbass, 2 of those defensive lines are gone. The Slovansk Karmotorsk line remains.

This is not revolutionary or so.e new insurmountable innovation, a lightweight sleeping quarters for trench warfare. Just like many over the last 100 years.

srai · Post by **srai** » 10 Jan 2024 18:23

^^^

Yes, these are not replacement for trenches. No one said that. These are for providing long-term comfort for those deployed to the trenches. Imagine having a warm secure dry (and vermin-free) place to rest in between rotations or bombardments. This is also more of a transition now from makeshift temporary trench accommodations to something more permanent. Indicative of how war has progressed.

https://apnews.com/article/ukraine-war- ... 975e09a4b7

…

For now, that means assembling prefabricated materials into underground shelters using a Soviet-era design. They have already shipped 123 of the 2-meter (6 1/2-foot) -wide, 6-meter (20-foot) -long structures structures to areas that include eastern Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk provinces.

Each shelter requires nearly 2 tons of steel. The bunkers are built to withstand projectiles with calibers of up to 152 millimeters, can accommodate up to six soldiers and need to be buried 1.5 meters (about 5 feet) underground.
…