Road to the 2024 Elections in India-1

[KL Dubey]

but along with the seat sale, it may also come with the possibility of some sort of vote transference to the congis

If NDA is at 55%, vote transfers within the 25% dotdot alliance will be irrelevant. Besides, they are back to their "do ladkon ka ga@@-bandhan", which cannot produce an offspring/result. I guess that works fine for Dimple, see her profile of "do ladke" : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oThUlqezXhA

[chetak]

but along with the seat sale, it may also come with the possibility of some sort of vote transference to the congis

If NDA is at 55%, vote transfers within the 25% dotdot alliance will be irrelevant. Besides, they are back to their "do ladkon ka ga@@-bandhan", which cannot produce an offspring/result. I guess that works fine for Dimple, see her profile of "do ladke" : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oThUlqezXhA

too early to call wins and losses, Dubey ji, but the congis will certainly hope to lose respectably in the 2024 LS elections, and that is the best result that they can hope for

[fanne]

Call me pessimist but I have a very bad feeling about the last 2024. As of now BJP is winning, but I can see few things going wrong (and you can see it’s sead as of now)
1. BJP is winning, 370 paar, electorate like 2004 becomes complacent and decide to skip
2. BJP workers were little disillusioned in 2004, that is not the case now but that can also complacent
3. The other side is fully mobilized, this time voting will be not 75% (with national average of 65%), but groups that oppose are 95% mobilized
4. I think farmer agitation is the beginning, tonnes of things are to come by April 2024, eroding public confidence and further moving some groups away
5. Leadership under mortal threat
6. Are we missing some systemic undercurrent against the govt, given that perhaps all pollster are living in echo chamber? It could be the truth or perhaps the illusion of that truth?

[KL Dubey]

Call me pessimist but I have a very bad feeling about the last 2024. As of now BJP is winning, but I can see few things going wrong (and you can see it’s sead as of now)
1. BJP is winning, 370 paar, electorate like 2004 becomes complacent and decide to skip
2. BJP workers were little disillusioned in 2004, that is not the case now but that can also complacent
3. The other side is fully mobilized, this time voting will be not 75% (with national average of 65%), but groups that oppose are 95% mobilized
4. I think farmer agitation is the beginning, tonnes of things are to come by April 2024, eroding public confidence and further moving some groups away
5. Leadership under mortal threat
6. Are we missing some systemic undercurrent against the govt, given that perhaps all pollster are living in echo chamber? It could be the truth or perhaps the illusion of that truth?

I understand some posters' well-meaning anxiety.

Just to make things easier for anxious posters, I suggest cutting and pasting from 2014 and 2019 election threads, 90% of what you want to write for 2024 is already in there, just minor tweaks needed.

[KL Dubey]

1. BJP is winning, 370 paar, electorate like 2004 becomes complacent and decide to skip

Taking this as example. If one observes the news a bit more carefully, and posts on BRF (like the Modi speech I posted), you'll understand things better. Modi is telling the workers to go bring the voters out so that 370+ is ensured, not telling them that we are all set and on course. Forget 2004, its a bygone era (I am also repeating myself from 2019 thread).

[fanne]

I agree, it is nothing but dhoti shibber!! I am pointing out fer grey swan events (not black). Some events that are very less probable and perhaps having moderate to high impact. If I were to make an educated guess, then most likely this is the outcome
1. Some 60%-70% chances that BJP on its own is ahead of 300 seats
2. Some 10%-20% BJP/NDA gets past 272 (i.e. form government on its own, but barely)
3.Some 5-10% BJP gets past 272, but with allies
4. Less than 5% that BJP does not do good and sit in opposition.

Now, There is no problem if BJP is in category 1 or 2 (1 being better/desired) outcome. However, there is a small % chance that 3 or 4 can happen, and it is good to point that out, so that countermeasures can be taken.

Modi ji speech of 370 paar has visibly done few things 1) hugely demoralised congress 2) Disbanded I.N.D.I.A alliance 3) There is commotion in opposition ranks, rats are jumping the ship. But everything in this world has a counter reaction, sometimes, your downfall (long term) is encoded in your success. For 2024 elections what these could be? I have just tried to bring attention to that in my previous post.

[Aditya_V]

I want INC, CPI, DMK, TMC, RJD, SP, Et al celebrate before the Elections, we need to make vote count and BIF sit at home.

[Sachin]

Looks like things are taking a big U turn on the farmer broker gang's protest v2.0. My sources are only social media platforms.
I got a sense of the U turn when the chief farmer broker Dallewal tried to wear a mask and tried to move forward. Later he was seen pleading authorities to atleast allow the senior leaders to cross over by walking (into HA) . By evening he knew he had painted himself to a corner. The statement in the evening about 24 hours delay in starting the march, was a dead give away. I got a feeling that Dallewal was trying to get an escape route to get away from the scene. Even HA police arresting him could be used as escape route, but HA police denied that option . So he came with his next trick - Bad news from farmers' movement, farmer leader Dallewal's health deteriorated . He can try to retake some of his H&D now.

Mean while, there is also another thought process floating around. I’m appalled at the stoic silence of @BhagwantMann. AAP-tard leadership is getting questioned, and this should be encouraged. Sikhs should stop fighting others fight. We have got plenty of internal issues to fix. Stop dying for ungrateful people. . In Malayalam there is a saying "കിട്ടേണ്ടത് കിട്ടിയാൽ, തോന്നേണ്ടത് തോന്നും" (when you get the right things - here it means whacking, your thoughts also would be right).

[chetak]

Samajwadi Party-Congress finally stitch alliance in UP; Cong gets 17 seats
Will ban politicians' entry in villages, if farmers stopped from reaching Delhi: Rakesh Tikait. Dakait is back in action comrades.

ABP is confirming, muslim leadership of UP forced टोंटी's hands to forge tie-up with Italians



WATCH VIDEO

[IndraD]

thanks for nuggets & non stop commentary chetak sir !

[SRajesh]

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/ind ... 911318.cms
Welcome to modern Jiziya

[Aditya_V]

A lot of posters where expecting BJP to fix INC legacy problems in Karnataka in 4 years, well I guess people are getting the Govt they voted for. IN TN where I live, similarly feel helplessness on general population voting for their own misery and sacrificing mine and their children's lives to well crafted propaganda.

[chetak]

thanks for nuggets & non stop commentary chetak sir !

[chetak]

SHOCKING ! Congress MLA @HC_Balakrishna warned the voters of scrapping the 5 Guarantees in Karnataka if people don't vote for the party in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections

#RahulGandhi is this the NYAY you are talking about?

https://www.hindustantimes.com/cities/b ... 67795.html

Karnataka Congress MLA HC Balakrishna created a row after he openly said that the five guarantees that are currently being implemented in the state will be pulled back if people do not vote for the Congress party in the upcoming Lok Sabha elections. He also said that he had already spoken to CM Siddaramaiah and Deputy CM DK Shivakumar about the decision.


Karnataka Congress MLA HC Balakrishna

Hindustan Times - your fastest source for breaking news! Read now.
Speaking at an event, HC Balakrishna said, “Everybody is getting the five guarantees we promised earlier. Now, you are asked to choose between Akshate (ceremonial rice that is distributed before an auspicious event) and guarantees. We respect temples, but we are against asking for votes in their name. If you need Akshate, please go ahead but we must cancel the five guarantees.”

The Magadi MLA also said he had already spoken to the CM and deputy CM about it. “I already told CM and deputy CM that if people are voting for Akshate, they are rejecting our five poll guarantees. So, they must be cancelled and the money used for development instead,” he added.

Balakrishna further said that whichever village will vote for them, they will work for them. “Our government is going to be there for the next five years. We will track all the booths and work for those who voted for the Congress party in the Lok Sabha elections. For villages which did not vote for us, we will think about them later,” said the MLA.

[Sachin]

A lot of posters where expecting BJP to fix INC legacy problems in Karnataka in 4 years, well I guess people are getting the Govt they voted for.

Atleast a few people in KA are planning to approach the court. And guess what right from 1991, Karnataka's Endowment Acts had provision to give money to non-Hindu communities worship places. There were multiple BJP governments which came & went, none bothered to amend/annull this law.

Balakrishna further said that whichever village will vote for them, they will work for them. “Our government is going to be there for the next five years. We will track all the booths and work for those who voted for the Congress party in the Lok Sabha elections.

KA BJP is becoming more like KL BJP. No focus, and any thing they start backfires on them. This is open threat to voters. And no one (be it JDS or BJP) have even approached the election commission.

[chetak]

A lot of posters where expecting BJP to fix INC legacy problems in Karnataka in 4 years, well I guess people are getting the Govt they voted for.

Atleast a few people in KA are planning to approach the court. And guess what right from 1991, Karnataka's Endowment Acts had provision to give money to non-Hindu communities worship places. There were multiple BJP governments which came & went, none bothered to amend/annull this law.

Balakrishna further said that whichever village will vote for them, they will work for them. “Our government is going to be there for the next five years. We will track all the booths and work for those who voted for the Congress party in the Lok Sabha elections.

KA BJP is becoming more like KL BJP. No focus, and any thing they start backfires on them. This is open threat to voters. And no one (be it JDS or BJP) have even approached the election commission.

Sachin ji,


Jaziya to Sharia is not far

[sanjayc]

What was going on in the mind of Karnataka Hindus when they voted for Congress and rejected BJP? What were they expecting exactly?

[chetak]

What was going on in the mind of Karnataka Hindus when they voted for Congress and rejected BJP? What were they expecting exactly?

sanjayc ji,


one party failed to read the tea leaves and did not accommodate a powerful leader. There were elements of personal vendetta interwoven into this bad decision which foolishly lost sight of the real enemy

his community reacted vengefully and you know the rest

heavens would not have fallen if the politically correct decision and minor compromises had been made.

some ego driven clown thus allowed the congis to rejuvenate, reinforce, stabilize, and more importantly, consolidate financially


For want of a nail the shoe was lost.
For want of a shoe the horse was lost.......

[SandeepA]

For want of a nail the shoe was lost.
For want of a shoe the horse was lost.......

Add Telangana to this as it was a winning horse and the tide turned to Khangress once they took KA and the fund flow improved.

[nachiket]

Too many fires being lit???
Manoj Jarange-Patil to launch fresh agitation. Who is this new character on the ground?

He is not new. Has been agitating for Maratha reservations for a while. In short he wants reservations for all Marathas under OBC quota. Currently only Kunbi Marathas (a sub-caste) get those. The MH government passed a separate 10% quota for other Marathas. But that also breaches the 50% limit and may be overturned by the Supreme court if challenged. Meanwhile giving reservations to all Marathas under OBC quota would anger all the other OBC's and BJP cannot afford that.

[SRajesh]

Shows he’s being led probably Sorass gang??
Heads I win tails you loose kind of setup the BIFs trying to do
Fadnavis has good thinking hat
Let’s see what happens

[chetak]

Shows he’s being led probably Sorass gang??
Heads I win tails you loose kind of setup the BIFs trying to do
Fadnavis has good thinking hat
Let’s see what happens

SRajesh ji,


more like he is being paid off by the other local party(ies) to push this demand, like the onions perhaps

they desperately wish to muddy the waters.

[chetak]

Kashmiri journalist Yana Mir's words stunned attendees in UK Parliament Building

She said "I am not a Malala. I am free and I am safe in my country India, in my home in Kashmir which is part of India. I will never have to run away from my home country."

Yana Mir also praised efforts of the Indian Army for deradicalizing youths. She was facilitated with Diversity Ambassador Award at UK Parliament after powerful speech





WATCH VIDEO

[uddu]

Kerala-Where are the BJP candidates?

Observation about election in Kerala.
LDF list did see prominence given to Muslim candidates while Ezhava community has been sidelined with 2 candidates. In Attingal constituency V Joy's stature is not as strong as Adoor Prakash (Cong) and V Muraleedharan (BJP). . So fight is going to be between these two and probably Joys candidature is mostly to ensure this fight. Communist party gave up Attingal for some reason. In Kollam Communist party is fielding film star Mukesh because they don't have any other better candidate to contest against Premachandran (RSP/UDF). Premachandran will win. KK Shailaja is fielded in Vadakara constituency to ensure her defeat so that the challenger to CM is defeated and sidelined leading to the next candidate being CMs son in law (Riyaz). UDF and LDF announced their candidates, but what about BJP Candidates? I dont know. Even LDF with CPI(M), CPI, Kerala Congress, announced their candidates and UDF made it clear that sitting MPs are their candidates, whats the problem for BJP to announce seats after setting aside the 4 seats for alliance partner BDJS? Surendran has been called to Delhi. Surendran will be called to Delhi, Delhi man Prakash Javadekar will come here. Rather than all these circus, let BJP announce the list. Atleast in Trissur let the name of Suresh Gopi be announced officially. That poor man is made to draw a lotus symbol while he cannot write his own name since candidate list is not announced. Its belittling that man. I felt sad seeing it. Even today he cannot write his name as a candidate. Infact, you are insulting a man. Can a party do that? PM himself took him along during the roadshow and then personally attended his daughters marriage making a defacto announcement of him being the candidate from Trissur but official announcement will not just come. Can the central leadership do it? Yes, they can, but not doing it. Will they change him in last moment? I dont know. I will not blame Modi for it, he being PM got a lot of work to do. Its for the likes of Parliamentary board, likes of Prakash Javadekar are supposed to take care of these things. Pathanamthitta PC George of BJP will be a strong candidate as he may get more Nair votes than the Christian votes. Sreedharan pillai is not going to be the candidate as being planted in news channels as he is a man of common sense. I am still wondering why the BJP candidate list is getting delayed? Even BJP members cannot provide an answer to that. Look at the danger of this delay, last time in two seats just hours before candidates were announced and they submitted the form without signing it, leading to disqualification. BJP had enough time, even they could have announced their candidate last year itself.

Literally telling the state of affairs of BJP in even announcing candidate list in Kerala. They do have real good chances with two candidates, one being Suresh Gopi in Trissur and P C George in Pathanamthitta with chances of good fight in Attingal and Thiruvananthapuram if strong candidates are fielded. The delay in announcing the candidate list is destroying BJPs chances in Kerala.

[SRajesh]

Looks Like Nath & Son are Nettles as far as BJP is concerned
Wonder whether its the Farmer 2.0 or possible SAD realignment that has been the deciding factor
But for whatever reason they are out!
But Manish T has gone quite and likewise with Sidhu Hasnewala!!
Manish is one thing but Sidhu and Shotgun should be kept out for another 20 years!!

[Aditya_V]

I suspect Kerala BJP is like TN BJP before Annamalai, with Gayatri Raghuram and SV Shekhar 's, I.e a DMK and AIDMK factions, with no real loyalty to the party an ideology betraying the cause.

[uddu]

with Gayatri Raghuram and SV Shekhar 's, I.e a DMK and AIDMK factions, with no real loyalty to the party an ideology betraying the cause.

Indeed. There used to be lot of factionism before Modi wave and Modis popularity rise in Kerala. Now there is a kind of moderate cohesion existing. They have real chances in 4 seats if real fight is put out with proper candidate announcement and start of campaign to start early. But as usual BJP being BJP wants to gift these seats to the opposition without being serious. The advantage of early candidate announcement for people to decide their candidate being BJP is lost now. As days pass people will settle their choice between UDF and LDF in these 4 seats.

[chetak]

Assam has repealed the Islamic act that allowed the marriage of a little girl child to an adult male.

I congratulate @himantabiswa for this decision.

Astonishing that this was not done earlier.

Even more astonishing that this was not demanded by our activists and feminists.



https://www.livemint.com/politics/news/ ... 89158.html

[chetak]

Broad daylight murder of INLD Haryana unit chief Nafe Singh Rathee!

Fmr MLA was shot dead in Jhajjar at 5.15pm. Rathee was travelling in an SUV when 4 assailants chased his car & sprayed bullets on his vehicle. 3 gunmen hired by rathee also suffer injuries

INLD leaders point fingers at the govt for not providing security to Rathee, call for CM khattar's resignation

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/ind ... 973944.cms

[bala]

A. R. Jaffer Sadiq, DMK NRI Member, Film Producer is on the run after the Narcotics Control Bureau (NCB) caught his henchmen smuggling a synthetic drug component Pseudoephedrine that is used in making drugs in the lab (e. g. Meth, Fentanyl).

The stuff was mixed in with dessicated coconut powder.

Film Producer, DMK member on the run for running 2000cr drug cartel: NCB
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eC4u1hHt9IQ

Now, DMK will make sure that he is never caught (and spill the beans) and they own the media outlets in TN. The news on this case will be suppressed.

[chetak]

A. R. Jaffer Sadiq, DMK NRI Member, Film Producer is on the run after the Narcotics Control Bureau (NCB) caught his henchmen smuggling a synthetic drug component Pseudoephedrine that is used in making drugs in the lab (e. g. Meth, Fentanyl).

The stuff was mixed in with dessicated coconut powder.

Film Producer, DMK member on the run for running 2000cr drug cartel: NCB
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eC4u1hHt9IQ

Now, DMK will make sure that he is never caught (and spill the beans) and they own the media outlets in TN. The news on this case will be suppressed.

bala saar,

social media is not under their control.....


This time around, there is widespread use of SM and you tube to focus attention on dharmic issues, counter fake narratives, and expose corrupt political charlatans masquerading as "ministers"

At long last, there is a credible alternative to actively counter and expose the malevolent dravidian, judeo malsic BIF separatist agenda and the evil propaganda machinery that nurtures it.

these dravidiyas are now greatly feeling the pain, and are unable to do much about it, even as the tables have turned....

the dravidiyas have thrived because of the congi patronage, like how the same benefaction has encouraged and allowed separatist elements to consolidate, thrive and expand their reach and flex political muscle

Even their much vaunted media muscle and their once iron grip on censored/doctored narratives that was spewed over the cable networks

free teevee set distribution by these dravidiya parties no longer gives them the political reach and influence, not when almost every guy is walking around with a smart phone tied to a cheap internet plan

rumour mills say that these dravidiyas have now started tinkering with cell towers to limit cell phone connectivity

[chetak]

how come no one talks about the thousands of Indians denied entry to the uk every year, held at some uk airport and deported back to India, despite having valid papers


Entry in to a foreign country is a privilege, not a right.

Just because she is a UK citizen doesn't mean that she can waltz in to India at will. This is not 1608 and the Raj is dead.

her OCI card notwithstanding, India has the sovereign right to allow or deny entry, just like any other country. Her OCI card will now be cancelled anyway.

we already have one cashmeri who speaks against India all the time, so, why would we need another to come all the way from the UK to spew the same venom....and anyway, we have already heard it all before.....




A kashmiri pandit married to a pakistani, who openly denies genocide of her own community, was invited to speak by congress govt in karnataka.

She was propped by ilhan omar back in 2019 to attack Aarti Tikoo in DC

Govt of India blocked her at Bengaluru airport

[sanjayc]

A kashmiri pandit married to a pakistani, who openly denies genocide of her own community, was invited to speak by congress govt in karnataka.

Is this confirmed - that she is married to a Paki?

[Lisa]

^ May be Indian?

https://www.google.com/search?q=Dibyesh ... e&ie=UTF-8

+ Tread

https://twitter.com/dintentdata/status/ ... 7939250585

+ Her asking for Modi to be stopped from speaking, that was OK!

https://twitter.com/ask0704/status/1761945303836459295

[chetak]

One of @arunjaitley' s best moments in the Rajya Sabha.

His interventions on many issues were outstanding, but this one on 'fascists', emergency, freedom of speech was just brilliant.

To say that he will be missed is a huge understatement.

Travel well, sir. Om Shanti #ArunJaitely

WATCH VIDEO

[chetak]

it is a commie dynasty, annie raja is daniel raja's wife

padres will make sure that funding comes from the dravidiya separatists



CPI announces Annie Raja as its candidate from Wayanad Lok Sabha seat: CPI General Secretary D Raja to ANI

Congress' Rahul Gandhi is currently the MP from Wayanad Lok Sabha seat.

https://indianexpress.com/article/india ... i-9182025/

[Yagnasri]

EJ girl Anne is contesting against the Woke Pappu in Kerala. Ironical.

In the meanwhile in AP, TDP+Jana Sena is there. No BJP in the gang. So NDA is not there in AP. Only BJP. I hope it stays that way.

[srin]

A kashmiri pandit married to a pakistani, who openly denies genocide of her own community, was invited to speak by congress govt in karnataka.

She was propped by ilhan omar back in 2019 to attack Aarti Tikoo in DC

Govt of India blocked her at Bengaluru airport

I wonder if the GoK paid for her ticket ... She seems to have been invited by GoK, so typically that would mean first class ticket paid by organizer.

[KL Dubey]

EJ girl Anne is contesting against the Woke Pappu in Kerala. Ironical.

In the meanwhile in AP, TDP+Jana Sena is there. No BJP in the gang. So NDA is not there in AP. Only BJP. I hope it stays that way.

As I mentioned earlier, Modi/Amit may be wary of any alliance with either of the AP state parties because both Anna and Tammudu are in the line to the slammer on various corruption issues. These fake fellows are two sides of the same counterfeit coin.

Anna has already done a trip to prison recently. If Tammudu loses the election (as is being predicted), Anna will likely act against him as soon as he is in the seat. Thus the two parties will start decimating each other, and BJP can emerge as alternative.

[SriKumar]

What's interesting about Dr. Kaul's saga is that she had no clue of what was to come, until she landed. And she spent the next 48 hours at the airport, and flew back to UK. Some OCI walas, particularly in Canada, will now start wondering about how they determine if they might meet with the same ummm....reception/