Quad News and Discussion- June 2021

[chetak]

Capability is the issue. Esp. Wrt China, esp. At sea. India might consider a China specific naval development às part of it's act East policy. Being China specific, mega orders to the US should work out well for both sides. Maybe a couple of CV ideally with f35 or even f18s, and b1b lease. Sea guardian in numbers. Done on friendship pricing and payment plans. After all, India's GDP growth projections should easily allow for this kind of expansion.
It is also a way to pay off foggy bottom types hell bent on "reforming"India. And reducing making into India's affairs. Buy more time until a more self reliant nation emerges.

What is a "China specific naval development"? You mean lease out some territory to US, like one of the Andamans?
Where does that put our ability to apply leverage on China? It also puts US in the driver's seat on our China policy.

Cain,

Instead of buying off the shelf equipment from the US. What India needs to do going forward is to leverage the capacity of the US and Western MIC.

One way we could do so, could be to release a development contract for India specific requirements to global vendors.

The vendor should enter into a JV with an Indian entity. Build a 50-50 JV.

Devlop the system for Indian requirements and then offer it to global South as well.

That will make the path to 100% self sufficiency easy.

US arms regulations don't allow just anything to be exported. Anything of a military nature needs approval from Washington.

these sort of wishful ideas pop up regularly.

If it were merely a matter of signing contracts and setting up JVs, they why did we struggle to build the LCA, the "indigenous" nuke sub, the home made carriers and what not

For instance, why have the russkis, or the frenchies, in all these years, not "JV"ed anything of consequence or significance with India (not talking of the the Indo Russian Rifles Private Limited Joint Venture between Advanced Weapons and Equipment India Ltd (erstwhile OFB) and Russia's Rosoboronexport, for the moment)


If wishes were horses........

[Pratyush]

Please try and understand what is being said before going all wishes and horses.

The US has not said that they will absolutely not develop any and all equipment with India.

Up until now India has been asking for items already in inventory of the US. Going forward,

Why is it a fantasy to ask for a joint development of a UAV for Indian maritime requirements. Or even porting the US sensors to the Tapas/ Rustum. ( Whatever it's called these days)

Development of future self propelled howitzer using the ERCA cannon.

Or Boeing developing an autonomous inflight refueling tanker using dry Kaveri engine. Meeting a potential Indian requirements in a JV with an Indian partner.

Or design a returnable cruise missile using the HTFE 25 as dreamed by Kalam.

The objective of the JV is to reduce the decades long r&d timelines of Indian projects.

All this might be a fantasy for those who think that Japanese detonated a nuclear bomb some place in world war 2.

But to me, the US has a need to accomodate Indian needs. US will be open to working with us on all the areas I have listed above. And more.

India has to decide how to take this matter forward.

[sanman]

Is Quad now going to be increasingly militarized, as a result of new Indo-US understanding?

If so, then what does this mean for AUKUS? And what about this new grouping involving Philippines?

I don't see how so many organizations are supposed to co-represent everybody at the same time, because then they make each other look redundant.

[Cain Marko]

Capability is the issue. Esp. Wrt China, esp. At sea. India might consider a China specific naval development às part of it's act East policy. Being China specific, mega orders to the US should work out well for both sides. Maybe a couple of CV ideally with f35 or even f18s, and b1b lease. Sea guardian in numbers. Done on friendship pricing and payment plans. After all, India's GDP growth projections should easily allow for this kind of expansion.
It is also a way to pay off foggy bottom types hell bent on "reforming"India. And reducing making into India's affairs. Buy more time until a more self reliant nation emerges.

What is a "China specific naval development"? You mean lease out some territory to US, like one of the Andamans?
Where does that put our ability to apply leverage on China? It also puts US in the driver's seat on our China policy.

Perish the thought! Where did I ever say India should lease it's land, anywhere? China specific naval capability improvements refer to addressing the huge gap between the two, which only threatens to get worse in the near future. India needs to have capability to do routine patrols in SCS. sending out a CBG along with bomber and MPAA patrols. The idea is to develop enough capability to harass China in it's own backyard, and not rely on hitting them merely at the choke points near the various straits. This means power projection...3 vik class carriers + 1 SuperCV acquired from the US on a friendship deal. Buy a boatload of f35 or even shornets if that's what it takes. Sea guardians. Maybe even SSNs. 10s of billions usd over a decade or so. This is what I mean by China centric, God knows we don't need that kind of firepower for managing Pakistan.

The SD already wants India to be a thorn in china's rump. Why not? If they want to push in mountains, why not prick them in their backyard a bit? Win over the massive USMIC with lovely treats subsidized by friendship deals, and the rest will follow...

Cain,

Instead of buying off the shelf equipment from the US. What India needs to do going forward is to leverage the capacity of the US and Western MIC.

One way we could do so, could be to release a development contract for India specific requirements to global vendors.

The vendor should enter into a JV with an Indian entity. Build a 50-50 JV.

Devlop the system for Indian requirements and then offer it to global South as well.

That will make the path to 100% self sufficiency easy.

US arms regulations don't allow just anything to be exported. Anything of a military nature needs approval from Washington.

whatever it takes to get there, but it needs to be done quick. I think Indian mic will become self sufficient in 10-20 years.. With or without US help. But these 10 years are crucial and capability gaps vs China are glaring. Time to change that by leveraging the most efficient mass producer of military hardware in the world, the usmic.
I've said this many times before, our strategic interests vs China match with the US, it's time to loosen the purse strings. Big ass G2G deals with US at friendship rates in exchange for non interference in Indian governance and fp, and yes, favorable press from the usual rascals for once. this assures a strong goi at the center and prevents the possibility of a China US G2. Yeah, we'll be a thorn in Chinas backside. With pleasure.

Hell I was even okay exploring boots on the ground in AFG. Just to get more presence in the larger neighborhood. The great super power of our times is waning or at least taking a breath, and leaving a bunch of gaps. If India wants to shape the new world, it needs to step up. If we don't, Turkey types will.

[ramana]

Writing is simple English without buzzwords helps clarify ideas..
Most people thought you were suggesting giving basing rights to USN.

[ramana]

BTW the entire Rafale flying from Hashimara, the Su-30s and the twin carriers cruise were all demonstration of India military capability.

[Cain Marko]

Writing is simple English without buzzwords helps clarify ideas..
Most people thought you were suggesting giving basing rights to USN.

Apologies. I'm not sure what buzzwords or jargon was used, but I hope my second post clarified what I meant.

[Cain Marko]

BTW the entire Rafale flying from Hashimara, the Su-30s and the twin carriers cruise were all demonstration of India military capability.

That's too defensive IMHO. There is a need to do khujli in Chinese waters. Checking the bottlenecks near the straits is not enough for the leader of the Global South.

[chetak]

This has particular relevance in this thread

X posted from the India US relations thread


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dfZRdELm7j8


Why India will be a close friend but not an ally of US, as Modi goes to America : Ashley

Tata Chair for Strategic Affairs and a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Ashley J. Tellis tells Senior Consulting Editor Jyoti Malhotra that while India-US relations are on the rise, why India is unlikely to offer military support to the US military agendas or part ways with Russia and why US needs to understand India's strategic concerns better and seek a partnership.

and tellis's article in foreign affairs journal

America’s Bad Bet on India

[SSridhar]

From the India-US Joint Statement at the end of PM Modi's State Visit:

President Biden and Prime Minister Modi recommitted themselves to empowering the Quad as a partnership for global good. The two leaders welcomed the progress made at the Hiroshima Summit last month among the four maritime democracies to further advance a positive and constructive agenda for peace and prosperity in the Indo-Pacific. The leaders welcomed progress on the Indo-Pacific Partnership for Maritime Domain Awareness, through which Quad partners are providing maritime domain data across the Indian Ocean, Southeast Asia, and the Pacific regions. The Quad to be hosted in India in 2024 would be another opportunity to continue the dialogue and consolidate cooperation.

[ramana]

This has particular relevance in this thread

X posted from the India US relations thread


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dfZRdELm7j8


Why India will be a close friend but not an ally of US, as Modi goes to America : Ashley

Tata Chair for Strategic Affairs and a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Ashley J. Tellis tells Senior Consulting Editor Jyoti Malhotra that while India-US relations are on the rise, why India is unlikely to offer military support to the US military agendas or part ways with Russia and why US needs to understand India's strategic concerns better and seek a partnership.

and tellis's article in foreign affairs journal

America’s Bad Bet on India

Tata should ask for his replacement or appoint someone else to that chair.

[Pratyush]

I have watched his explanation of the perticular turn of phrase on both the print as well as the Carnegie you tube channel.

Will link that interview in a separate post.

He is not saying that USA should be angry or reduce the relationship with India.

His article is primarily for those people in the US administration who are new to the India assignment and are thinking that India will become an alliance partner with US.

He is telling them, that if you bet on on the above. Then that bet is wrong.

He has, in his interview also spoken about India's preference for furthering Indian interests. He has also spoken about the Indian preference to see a strong Russia. As a member of the emerging global order. Something that doesn't exist as yet.

[Pratyush]

Ashley Tellis and Lisa Curtis interview on the Carnegie Endowment you tube channel.

https://www.youtube.com/live/Kqm-gPl4OSk?feature=share

I have linked the URL of the program as the you tube tag is creating some issues because of live nature of the program.

I got the impression from both of them. That they are telling the US administration. Put up with India and it will be good for USA in the long term.

[SSridhar]

I got the same impression too.

[ramana]

Actually, they are late. The Biden WH is ahead of all the think tankers.
Most of these jokers don't understand Biden is in Foreign Policy since the 1976 election.
He has forgotten more than they know.
He was biding his time since 1992 and seized the opportunity when it presented itself and surprised Duplicity.
Evidence is the woke gang boycotting the Congress Address and Ombaba heckling from the sidelines in Greece on CNN like in the Muppet Show.

[ramana]

Here again, Tellis is erroneous.
The recent Wagner uprising against Putin's MoD which is a long time in coming* shows Russia is weak now.
So what is strong Russia?
A figment of imagination.

* Some Russian forces turning on their leaders was expected by thinkers due to: long war, casualties, and equipment losses.
This is characteristic of the Russian military. They are nationalists.
This won't happen in China as PLA is a CPC-armed wing.
They don't care for China. Only what the party Chairman wants.

[Rakesh]

'India Doesn't Want China...': Ex-Navy Chief Dares Beijing From Taiwan; QUAD Flaunts Firepower

[bala]

Raisina talk - Quad topic

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rmoxi0M4tIw