Houthi/Iran drone strikes on Gulf shipping

[Cyrano]

I've been mulling over these shipping strikes.

Seems someone is challenging Bharat - you keep saying IoR, Indo-Pacific, Quad ityadi, now let's see what you got under the hood.

From our perspective, there are several ways to deal with this, not just by going ballistic. I'm fully expecting some desi media to start saying India failed to protect its interests in its own front yard ityadi and paint it as Modi's failure.

Some of our jingos will want brahmos flying all over ME. But that would be have hammer where's the nail syndrome.

Last I checked we have decent relations with Yemenis and Eyeranians. Creating trouble with proxies and then stepping in as policeman is unkil's game, and we know it !

[Cyrano]

How about a Turkish Bayrakter (supplied to Ukraine to give plausible deniability, Elensky also has a grudge wrt India) drone launched from Maldives to hit the ship midway between Mumbai and Mangalore?
President Moizu's first visit was to Erdogan.

Very much possible, these are 2 bit proxies anyways. Can't discount Newland meeting with porky Gen either...

[sanman]

Did Houthis just attack Pakistan-bound container ship? What will pakis do?

[ramana]

When you don't have direct evidence you need to postulate scenarios and find the most likely scenario that explains all the signature of the event.
Signature: MV Chem Pluto was hit by a UAV in the aft and led to petallng exit. Attack occurred 217nm or 400 km from Porbandar. Time of attack either in late evening or early morning.

Type of UAV: Has to be loitering UAV for visual identification. And if time of attack.is darkness then IR camera.

Do we agree on.the signature?

[Shameek]

HT reporting that initial indications are of the Iranian Shahed 136 drone being used.

Youtube-Link

[drnayar]

How can we get more data when the next attack happens?

Can't we collect ELINT information to see where the drone is being controlled from?

That would mean using Indian Neptunes .. interesting scenario.. can we catch unkle using unkles toys ?

[srin]

Targeting a particular civilian ship isn't very difficult for a drone if it has the range. Every ship has an AIS transponder that advertises its location. Homing in on the AIS signal shouldn't be too hard.

[sanman]

Targeting a particular civilian ship isn't very difficult for a drone if it has the range. Every ship has an AIS transponder that advertises its location. Homing in on the AIS signal shouldn't be too hard.

So is part of the solution for ships to turn off their transponders once they've been warned they're about to be attacked?

[Pratyush]

That's an option.

But it will also blind our larger post 26/11 security architecture blind. By limiting it to regions with shore based radar coverage only.

A viable option to defeat this threat would be to have signals intelligence gathering assets, isolate the guidance signal for the loitering munition and then hijacking the asset.

The Iranians had hijacked a US asset using similar methods 10 plus years ago.

[Rony]

Shishir Gupta, a reliable source from HT with access to initial Indian investigation clears says its Iran. Its not US or Turkey.

Iran was always against India-Middle East corrider, have a history of ignoring Indian sensitivities when it comes to hitting Israeli interests on Indian soil (remember the attack on Israeli diplomats in Delhi by Iran) and has means/long range drones to do it. US is unreliable and untrustworthy but so is Iran. Iran (like US) is a frenemy to India. India needs to have its own proxies (Baluchis in Iranian Baluchistan, Kurds in Iranian Kurdistan, Iran based Azeri groups, Arab minorities in Iran) to send Iran a message and not to cross the line.

[Cyrano]

Hasn't Iran just become part of BRICS officially? Bharat could have vetoed their entry but we didn't. And they have done this now...?

[chetak]

Iran: Deadly blasts near grave of slain Qassem Soleimani




https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wu_NAHeUAXc


Deadly bombing in Iran near grave of assassinated general Qassem Soleimani

[bala]

Some more elaboration by Sumit Peer on the blast.. Explosions near the tomb of Qasim Solemani have killed at least 103 people. Mobs had gathered to remember the fourth anniversary of his death.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tN7xqzFAcTk

[ricky_v]

Operation back to stone age has been launched by the leaders of the free world on yemen, sm is lit with attacks on us navy as well

[sanman]

[sanman]

US Conducts Airstrikes Against Houthis

[sanman]

[Tanaji]

The Saudis have been pounding the Houthis for years using the very same Western weapons with RAF personnel on hand for support. They couldn’t make a dent in the Houthis nuisance value. What makes US think it will be different with them?

Only way is to have boots on the ground which has zero chance of happening or taking out Iran which is similar chance…

[Ashokk]

How Merchant Ships Are Tricking Houthi Rebels Using China's Name

[sanman]

Where are Houthis getting hypersonic anti-ship missiles from? Iran? Russia? Who?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hueSv0f9HhE

I thought Houthis get everything from Iran. Does Iran have operational hypersonic missiles?

[Najunamar]

MV Ruen crew rescued by INS Kolkata and pirates taken in custody without incident.

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/ind ... 551691.cms

[nachiket]

Where are Houthis getting hypersonic anti-ship missiles from? Iran? Russia? Who?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hueSv0f9HhE

I thought Houthis get everything from Iran. Does Iran have operational hypersonic missiles?

If you look at the AP report on this it looks like a claim by the Yemenese themselves. Even then they mention a missile which runs on "solid fuel" and flies at Mach 8. So they are talking about a ballistic missile. Most ballistic missiles, even the old Scuds which Saddam used were hypersonic by that definition. The problem in using medium range ballistic missiles against ships is being able to accurately locate and track target on the sea at those distances and then having a guidance system that can receive continuous updates (since the target keeps moving) and being able to correct the trajectory of the warhead during/after re-entry. This is a difficult problem to solve. The Iranians most definitely have not solved it regardless of what they might say, and I don't think even they make such claims. But Yemen could use this missile if they actually possess it against land targets.

[sanman]

If you look at the AP report on this it looks like a claim by the Yemenese themselves. Even then they mention a missile which runs on "solid fuel" and flies at Mach 8. So they are talking about a ballistic missile. Most ballistic missiles, even the old Scuds which Saddam used were hypersonic by that definition. The problem in using medium range ballistic missiles against ships is being able to accurately locate and track target on the sea at those distances and then having a guidance system that can receive continuous updates (since the target keeps moving) and being able to correct the trajectory of the warhead during/after re-entry. This is a difficult problem to solve. The Iranians most definitely have not solved it regardless of what they might say, and I don't think even they make such claims. But Yemen could use this missile if they actually possess it against land targets.

In my mind, a hypersonic missile is one which is capable of aerodynamic maneuvering at hypersonic speeds, so that it's not merely travelling on a ballistic path to its target.
Do the Yemenis have anything like this capability? I guess Iran isn't a signatory to MTCR, so they'd have no qualms about supplying it if they themselves had it.

[Pratyush]

More than the claims form the Houthis. What is more important is the possession of Anti Ship Ballestic missiles by the them.

If the seeker and warhead section of that system can be ported on the existing Scud. Then the Houthis have a legitimate claim to hypersonic missiles.

[nachiket]

In my mind, a hypersonic missile is one which is capable of aerodynamic maneuvering at hypersonic speeds, so that it's not merely travelling on a ballistic path to its target.
Do the Yemenis have anything like this capability? I guess Iran isn't a signatory to MTCR, so they'd have no qualms about supplying it if they themselves had it.

They most definitely do not, or more importantly Iran does not so it cannot provide it to Yemen. Hypersonic cruise missiles which you are talking about are still an emerging technology. Unfortunately the media does not make a distinction between hypersonic cruise missiles which only very few countries are even testing and hypersonic ballistic missiles which are nearly all ballistic missiles in existence and therefore quite common. You could see this confusion being created when the Russians used the Kinzhal air-launched ballistic missile in Ukraine and the media went crazy reporting that the Russians were using Hypersonic weapons. Iran does claim to have a Hypersonic Glide Vehicle (which is basically a special maneuvering warhead mounted on a ballistic missile). But I would take those claims with a bucketful of salt as well.

[drnayar]

"Technically speaking, hypersonic weapons have existed since the middle of the 20th century. A hypersonic weapon is merely something that travels at Mach-5 or faster, or at least five times the speed of sound. Ballistic missiles have long possessed these speeds."

https://armscontrolcenter.org/fact-shee ... %20speeds.

Slow moving and large targets are more vulnerable .. but most attacks have been drone . Iran has this perfect opportunity to perfect a targeting system for short range ballistic missiles

[IndraD]

https://x.com/indiannavy/status/1769349 ... 40579?s=46
marcos in action again, rescuing ships, defeating pirates, winning hearts!

(why is US missing in action? when they think entire Ocean in the world is theirs? didn;t they trash waters of IO not long ago in show of dadagiri?)
Bulgaria thanks India https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/ind ... 567139.cms

[IndraD]

Mutterings on SM
US is helping pirates as their insurance companies are making mega bucks through captive ships

[Pratyush]

Mutterings on SM
US is helping pirates as their insurance companies are making mega bucks through captive ships

That actually makes no sense.

What makes more sense is the absorption of excess container capacity in the aftermath of COVID. For major global shipping players. Along with skyrocketing spot rates for container shipping. That too during the early days of the conflict.

The Russian crude carrying tankers and Indian refined product tankers that are having to avoid the suez are a creating stress for the Indian petroleum refineries. By adding nearly 10 extra days of shipping time both ways.