Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015
Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015
Great power competition is not bad but great power collaboration is definitely bad because then it will squeeze the rest of us out. - Dr SJ.
This is such a profound statement.
Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015
x-Posting:
EAM: Raisina Dialogue Panel - A Tapestry of Truths: Can the Two Hemispheres Agree
Feb 22, 2024
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=60fxwrYpZMo
Africa thinks that India can shape world leadership, UN does not work! The current UN Security Council does not work for them and frankly does not deliver what the world needs. UAE also believes that UN does not work.
EAM: Raisina Dialogue Panel - A Tapestry of Truths: Can the Two Hemispheres Agree
Feb 22, 2024
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=60fxwrYpZMo
Africa thinks that India can shape world leadership, UN does not work! The current UN Security Council does not work for them and frankly does not deliver what the world needs. UAE also believes that UN does not work.
Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015
Like someone said here in brf India will get the UNSC seat when it either becomes irrelevant or when we don't need it
Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015
Quite so, the worthies at the UNSC will cling on to their illusions of grandeur till they become soo irrelevant., the rise of the middle powers in the economic power hierarchy will lead directly to such an event. In 2050 3 of the top 5 economies will be in Asia, what's the relevance of UK and France in such a scenario., come 2075 , UK would be 10th and France at a new high of 15th in the global economic pecking order!
Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015
^^^That's very unconvincing. Indonesia, Pakistan?!!
Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015
Indonesia, being one of the largest economies is understandable. It's a well educated population, with moderate Islamic leanings. So if, it continues with the current trends, no reason why it should not become one of larger economies in future.
Pakistan, nice joke. What do they have, or will have that will turn them into a top 10 economic power in 2075. Second, will it even exist by 2075.
Pakistan, nice joke. What do they have, or will have that will turn them into a top 10 economic power in 2075. Second, will it even exist by 2075.
Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015
This is a chat with desi interviewers both in Angrez and Hindi and EAM S. Jaishankar who answers in both languages with ease. A range of questions were asked - rise of India, added responsibilities in the world, global south, China, Kaneda/Khalistanis and more.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Uj07MEhnu4
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Uj07MEhnu4
Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015
Is this for real ?drnayar wrote: ↑23 Feb 2024 00:56 ...
Quite so, the worthies at the UNSC will cling on to their illusions of grandeur till they become soo irrelevant., the rise of the middle powers in the economic power hierarchy will lead directly to such an event. In 2050 3 of the top 5 economies will be in Asia, what's the relevance of UK and France in such a scenario., come 2075 , UK would be 10th and France at a new high of 15th in the global economic pecking order!
...
Pakistan is nowhere in the list till 2050 and then in 2075 they jump straight to number 6
Must be all due to Jazba
EDIT- is it because between now and 2070 Pakistan will have turned into a desert. By 2071 they will discover oil.
Seriously though i guess that maybe the calculations are factored in terms of population. The jihadi beggars will have grown exponentially so much that even with very low per capita their total GDP will be put them high on the list.
Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015
The chart is from Goldman Suchs.
The past is pure data and future is only projection. China, S. Korea and Japan will go through a bust in next decade or two. Starting with S. Korea, followed by China.
Bakistan will not exist even by 2030. Demographics do not matter. The sudden jump in the chart is someone doing a humour to favour somebody up in the chain at Goldman Suchs.
Just rely on data on the past and see that India jumped ahead in between 2000 to 2020. More so between 2014 to 2024. Since that is real data.
The past is pure data and future is only projection. China, S. Korea and Japan will go through a bust in next decade or two. Starting with S. Korea, followed by China.
Bakistan will not exist even by 2030. Demographics do not matter. The sudden jump in the chart is someone doing a humour to favour somebody up in the chain at Goldman Suchs.
Just rely on data on the past and see that India jumped ahead in between 2000 to 2020. More so between 2014 to 2024. Since that is real data.
Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015
Is the data reliable? China is known to fudge data.... less said about bakistan sialkoti statistics the better
Jihadistan was created to keep a check on Bharat. It will be kept propped up until Bharat chooses to destroy it. It's shape and form may change. But it will be thereBakistan will not exist even by 2030.
...
Demographics is destiny.Demographics do not matter
Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015
Looking at Ukraine, 10 years back, nobody thought that it will now exist as a moth-eaten rump state. Looking at Bakistan, and what is happening in Lawhore, Bakistan will exist only in memory.
Pure numbers by itself is useless. By that token, Bakistan has lot of demographics and all TFTA. Still ineffective. So demographics is destiny only when you have a good leader at the top.Demographics is destiny.
Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015
^^ "Bakistan will exist only in memory nightmares"
Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015
It's not new... has happened for a long time. Lahore was once part of Bharat.disha wrote: ↑28 Feb 2024 02:20 Looking at Bakistan, and what is happening in Lawhore, Bakistan will exist only in memory.
It will not be jihadistan which will need to have a good leader. 50+ years ago we helped dismember Bakistan, defeated their military, created Bangladesh. And we still have a huge problem there. Good leader or not, one cannot just dismiss demographics.
Pure numbers by itself is useless. By that token, Bakistan has lot of demographics and all TFTA. Still ineffective. So demographics is destiny only when you have a good leader at the top.
Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015
Dr Ankit Shah has a lot to say about Modi 3.0. He has some interesting observations to make in the geo political sphere.
Printing of dollars and the petro dollar has caused some huge side affects - radicalization and excessive consumption in the world. The China story is well known wherein funds were indiscriminately shoveled into break-neck building. Now China has ghost cities, buildings are vacant with no tenants, large cities with gleaming buildings with no-one occupying them. Its stellar high speed railway system is dropping in clientele usage, most labor in china has disappeared back to their villages. Excessive and blind growth has led to a huge loss for China. He thinks that the cheap production of various products for western consumption has led China into this abyss and he feels it is a good thing for China that there is stop to export driven behavior. China needs to re-calibrate its entire thinking and re-adjust its living norms.
Similar things have happened in the west. The average home size has ballooned from 1000 sq ft to well over 3000 sq ft. People have empty bedrooms, the family unit is broken and almost all of them have pets like dogs and cats to make up for their loneliness caused by family breakup. On a average they consume too many things 4-5 TVs, 4-5 cars, huge electricity consumption per person, wastage of packaging/plastics, food and resources of gigantic proportions. Consumption has gone awry, yet the people feel lonelier than ever, very empty.
He says this is not the Sanatani system. India has respect for the environment and its resources. The family unit ensures people can sanely live their lives with support. The excessive build up of multi-stories is causing a western way of life and many couples/singles are living an empty life. The sense of family support is fast disappearing and excessive consumption is on the horizon for Bharat. He cautions against this.
Shifting of manufacturing to India is not going to yield lower costs for products, in fact could be much higher. Over time, the dollar reigning supreme is going to disappear and a barter system which involves good/services will evolve. The shift will be profound and major adjustments will happen worldwide.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JJl3EFYrIR8
Printing of dollars and the petro dollar has caused some huge side affects - radicalization and excessive consumption in the world. The China story is well known wherein funds were indiscriminately shoveled into break-neck building. Now China has ghost cities, buildings are vacant with no tenants, large cities with gleaming buildings with no-one occupying them. Its stellar high speed railway system is dropping in clientele usage, most labor in china has disappeared back to their villages. Excessive and blind growth has led to a huge loss for China. He thinks that the cheap production of various products for western consumption has led China into this abyss and he feels it is a good thing for China that there is stop to export driven behavior. China needs to re-calibrate its entire thinking and re-adjust its living norms.
Similar things have happened in the west. The average home size has ballooned from 1000 sq ft to well over 3000 sq ft. People have empty bedrooms, the family unit is broken and almost all of them have pets like dogs and cats to make up for their loneliness caused by family breakup. On a average they consume too many things 4-5 TVs, 4-5 cars, huge electricity consumption per person, wastage of packaging/plastics, food and resources of gigantic proportions. Consumption has gone awry, yet the people feel lonelier than ever, very empty.
He says this is not the Sanatani system. India has respect for the environment and its resources. The family unit ensures people can sanely live their lives with support. The excessive build up of multi-stories is causing a western way of life and many couples/singles are living an empty life. The sense of family support is fast disappearing and excessive consumption is on the horizon for Bharat. He cautions against this.
Shifting of manufacturing to India is not going to yield lower costs for products, in fact could be much higher. Over time, the dollar reigning supreme is going to disappear and a barter system which involves good/services will evolve. The shift will be profound and major adjustments will happen worldwide.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JJl3EFYrIR8
Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015
S Jaishankar takes on the moronic policies of Neverwho. How many blunders by Neverwho - Tibet, Security Council seat, Kashmore, Aksai Chin 1962 war with poor equipment for the army and did not use the Indian airforce to smash the Chinese, adopted Britshit imposed constitution, judiciary, babucracy, stunted the growth of India with socialist/communist policy. Essentially got both China and Pakistan wrong.
This is the short take on Neverwho...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0LfDst-OxG0
Longer interview (at around 17:00 on Neverwho)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uhzfdYYhKEY
This is the short take on Neverwho...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0LfDst-OxG0
Longer interview (at around 17:00 on Neverwho)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uhzfdYYhKEY
Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015
https://responsiblestatecraft.org/tom-f ... raq-syria/
Among their whistlestops were U.S. installations in Syria. About 900 American troops are there, distributed in penny packets among seven bases. Some of these protect oil fields that supply U.S.-backed Kurdish authorities; others are in the far northeast, where they assist Kurdish units, help secure and supply the cluster of camps that house ISIS prisoners and their families and continue to hunt ISIS fighters; and still others in the southeast, at a road junction where the Iraqi, Syrian and Jordanian borders meet. This base was set up to interdict Iranian-backed forces attempting to entrench themselves in Syria and transport supplies to Lebanon.
In Friedman’s recap of this visit, he explained that the importance of these U.S. deployments lay in the need to fight the terrorists over there so we would not have to fight them over here.
Let’s say, for the moment, that there are several other rationales for maintaining troops in Syria. Iran, for example, does seek to use Syria as a land corridor to Lebanon and the Israeli-Syrian border, from which it can carry the fight to its enemy. Iran is 1,200 kilometers from Israel, so if it wants to reach out and touch someone without using ballistic missiles, it needs to be on Israel’s borders. Rendering this a bit more difficult than it might otherwise be makes a regional blow-up marginally less likely.
Maintaining a garrison at the oil fields is meant to secure them from capture by either ISIS or the Assad regime, against which the U.S. maintains heavy sanctions. Reserving the oil for use by Kurds, both for sale and consumption, reflects a longstanding policy that favors Kurdish autonomy in Syria. This policy preference, which owes in part to a romanticized image of Kurds as daring fighters fending off terrorist hordes to spare the U.S. an onerous burden, also dictates the use of U.S. forces in northeast Syria as a tripwire deterrent against Turkish attempts to suppress Syrian Kurds.
One can have this or that view on the validity of these rationales or the salience of these objectives for core U.S. strategic interests. If the Turks and their radical Arab militias rip into the Kurds to get at the PKK, as they have done twice already, U.S. strategic interest is unlikely to suffer very much. If ISIS fighters escape the camps in Syria, Iraqi forces with U.S. help could probably limit the threat to Iraqi stability. The U.S. installation at al-Tanf in the southeast can be bypassed by Iran-backed militias via an Assad-controlled base at al bu-Kamal, a bit northeast of al-Tanf, so the U.S. base there might have outlived its usefulness.
Of course, on any given day there are about 30,000 U.S. military personnel in the region, as there have been for decades, so 900 isn’t a particularly impressive number. It’s a good example of limited interests served by a commensurately limited commitment. Whether to stay or go comes down to a narrow judgment call.
But of all the factors to consider there is one that does not merit concern: the idea of fighting them over there so we don’t have to fight them over here. It’s a vacuous meme trotted out to defend the controversial commitment and use of forward deployed forces and creation of distant security perimeters.
Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015
Another dialog with Palki Sharma and John Mersheimer centering on the four powers are discussed - US, Russia, China and India. This is an often discussed topic and there are no clear answers. We can model all possibilities but as they say, "you have to play the game" to get any clarity. You need chanakya thinking to play this multi-dimensional game.
Around 23:00 in YT
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2ZOmpl00Ihk
One of the points that J Mersheimer makes on China is not correct, he thinks they will become a "Blue Water" Navy and they will get wealthier. Both of these are not true. The US withdrawing from China in terms of manufacturing has put a dagger in the heart of economic wealth of China. Their Navy is a completely useless entity, just look at their clout in the red sea area, having huge numbers of everything is not the point. Their aircraft carriers have never gone on independent expedition outside their border areas and I heard their carriers have cracked their tops and a fully loaded aircraft has never taken of from their deck. Their submarines are noisy as hell. All they have are missiles galore but their missile commander was sacked and a non-missile man is in charge. So effectively China is on a downward slide. J Mersheimer does observe that China will have a tough time to take on Taiwan. He thinks the quagmire would be the South China sea and conflicts with Philippines, Japan and South Korea could escalate quite quickly. India is helping the Philippines with Brahmos and other weapons.
One of the side outcomes in the discussion, is that India has to shore up its defense prowess, make the Navy a "Blue Water" navy by augmenting carriers, submarines and various classes of ships while simultaneously the Airforce and Army have to be thoroughly modernized and augmented in numbers. Lots of work ahead.
Around 23:00 in YT
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2ZOmpl00Ihk
One of the points that J Mersheimer makes on China is not correct, he thinks they will become a "Blue Water" Navy and they will get wealthier. Both of these are not true. The US withdrawing from China in terms of manufacturing has put a dagger in the heart of economic wealth of China. Their Navy is a completely useless entity, just look at their clout in the red sea area, having huge numbers of everything is not the point. Their aircraft carriers have never gone on independent expedition outside their border areas and I heard their carriers have cracked their tops and a fully loaded aircraft has never taken of from their deck. Their submarines are noisy as hell. All they have are missiles galore but their missile commander was sacked and a non-missile man is in charge. So effectively China is on a downward slide. J Mersheimer does observe that China will have a tough time to take on Taiwan. He thinks the quagmire would be the South China sea and conflicts with Philippines, Japan and South Korea could escalate quite quickly. India is helping the Philippines with Brahmos and other weapons.
One of the side outcomes in the discussion, is that India has to shore up its defense prowess, make the Navy a "Blue Water" navy by augmenting carriers, submarines and various classes of ships while simultaneously the Airforce and Army have to be thoroughly modernized and augmented in numbers. Lots of work ahead.
Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015
I found this 1.5 hrs podcast to be fascinating.
Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015
https://archive.is/92FIe
Germany Arrests Dozens Suspected of Planning to Overthrow Government
Many the police detained had military training and were believed to belong to a recently formed group that operated on the conviction that the country was ruled by the so-called deep state.
Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015
Chip manufacturing is being moved out of Taiwan at a rapid pace, based on a roadmap which was established few years ago. #Taiwan #ChipsEmbargo ??
Taiwan Semi (TSM) to get up to $6.6 billion in direct funding for its Arizona plant
Taiwan Semi (TSM) to get up to $6.6 billion in direct funding for its Arizona plant
Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015
Chatham House has two articles on India
Will post links.
One link
https://twitter.com/ramana_brf/status/1 ... oa-WA&s=19
Will post links.
One link
https://twitter.com/ramana_brf/status/1 ... oa-WA&s=19
Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015
https://www.geopoliticalmonitor.com/the ... -caucasus/
"south asia" has also been enmeshed in this chalk circle, as it were, there is growing azerbaijan-turkey-paki linkage and the equally growing india-armenia linkage; it is our own In in the wider game though we would most likely remain passive players.
The Caucasian Chalk Circle
In the context of the so-called emerging New World Order, Russia was at first left on the periphery, while Turkey and Iran were the first countries affected by geopolitical turbulence. Entering the ‘Mittlespiel’ of this ‘Great Chess Game,’ the United States and the European Union quickly exploited the opportunity to increase their influence in the region of the Central Caucasus. Hence the latter soon became a space of competition between original geopolitical players and so-called ‘newcomers.
Iran is one of the classical players in the Central Caucasus, however, due to its internal turbulence and international pressures, it was forced to temporarily retreat from the contest. The latest trends show the revitalization of Iran’s interests in the Central Caucasus. In the regional context, Iran is an ally of Armenia and Russia.
Turkey, as Brzezinski suggests, must not be alienated from geopolitical calculations, because a rejected Turkey can not only become strongly Islamic but will be able to upset the region’s stability. Turkey’s role in this contest, along with its geopolitical inclinations, is to counter-balance Russia’s domination over the region. That is why Brzezinski argues that political developments in Turkey and its orientation will be crucial for the states of the Central Caucasus.
The EU presence in the region is perceptible as well. In the framework of its Eastern Neighborhood Partnership, the Union encouraged countries of the region toward reform and as an accolade granted Georgia candidacy status. Furthermore, the location and the mentioned potential to provide transit roads allow Central Caucasus to serve as an energy security guarantee to Europe. In line with this, Europe needs to assist the region in its peaceful development and assure its security as a strategic partner.
Contrary to Armenia and Georgia, Azerbaijan does not openly express willingness to join either military or economic blocs. The country is neither pro-Russian, nor pro-Western, but emphasizes the importance of regional cooperation. Consequently, the countries are at different steps in the process of Europeanization. Nevertheless, the EU’s need for a reliable partner in the Central Caucasus is currently at odds with Turkey’s estrangement from the Union and Russia being non-responsive to sanctions.
The United States has long viewed the region, and especially Georgia as a strategic buffer zone to assist its interests in the Middle East, as well as against the expansion of terrorism. In 2016, Donald Rumsfeld, former US Secretary of Defense, highlighted the strategic location of Georgia in his article in The Wall Street Journal, by stating that “[Georgia] provides a barrier to the flow of jihadists from other parts of the former Soviet Union to the Middle East. And it will doubtless figure large in the strategies of any NATO consortium for securing the Black Sea and ‘New Europe’ against Russian adventurism.”
An additional newcomer to the regional chess game is China with its growing geopolitical influence, making the region’s importance even greater through participation in the Chinese Silk Road project and, since 2017, in the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route project.
The cultural dimension, specifically the ethno-religious factor, in a time of growing resurgence of nationalism and fundamentalism, is a factor directly influencing geopolitical considerations. Historical differences have shaped difficult relations between Turkey-Armenia and Armenia-Azerbaijan, leading to friendship between Russia and Armenia. Russia’s betrayal and mistreatment of Georgia has alienated the country from its northern neighbor, with whom it shares a common religion. Despite diverse religions, Georgia maintains a friendly relationship with Turkey and Iran, with the latter enjoying a somewhat positive attitude among all the Caucasian republics.
Its location and its experience as a borderland of various religions and ethnicities permit the region to be crucial in what is claimed to be the primary menace and security challenges of the 21st century- terrorism, further enhancing the Central Caucasus’s role as a border of civilizations.
As observed, the developments of the post-Soviet era brought new actors such as the US, EU, and China into the contest of imposing influence over the region, as well as extracting benefits from it. Such unfolding of events, however, runs contrary to the aspirations of the major neighboring geopolitical powers, such as Russia, Turkey, and Iran; the concentration of political interests of the great powers in such a small region emphasizes its favored geopolitical position and economic advantages.
Borrowing from Bertolt Brecht’s theatrical play The Caucasian Chalk Circle, the configuration of international interests in the region spotlights power conflicts. Such concentration of global powers in its turn shapes the foreign orientations of the countries of the Central Caucasus. In the realm of geopolitical discourse, a region can be geopolitically significant if it serves the geopolitical and economic benefits of major geopolitical players or has the potential to challenge such political-economic aspirations of great powers. The Central Caucasus, as a result of its strategic location and diversity, possesses both characteristics. Consequently, Central Caucasus stands amid a complex geopolitical landscape, and next to presenting economic opportunities for great powers, finds itself in the hotspot of 21st-century security considerations.
"south asia" has also been enmeshed in this chalk circle, as it were, there is growing azerbaijan-turkey-paki linkage and the equally growing india-armenia linkage; it is our own In in the wider game though we would most likely remain passive players.
Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015
Fall of Japanese Yen - Does it Portend Another Crisis?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sz3r36ZTe7Q
JPY reached 160 to USD on Monday
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sz3r36ZTe7Q
JPY reached 160 to USD on Monday
Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015
Who is this Sridhar Chityala? He speaks quite intelligently
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y8EYYUm6bx8
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y8EYYUm6bx8