Tejas Mk2 Medium Weight Fighter: News & Discussion - 23 February 2019

[SidSom]

What IPR prevents india from disassembling a turbo engine from open market (life hours expiration) to learn/inspire from?

I feel :

China's proficiency at reverse engineering is misunderstood. It rarely is pure reverse engineering, it feels like they are experts at stealing technology. This means,

1. Human resource : having right people in the right place or buying/coercing the right people to share/steal required knowledge.
2. Target identification and Acquisition : The required tech source is identified and the process to acquire is defined.
3. Tech Assimilation: Required experts review the stolen/borrowed tech and customize it for own use. Productionizing and Know why assimilation.
4. Funding and project management : usually state run machinery to co-ordinate various actors and enable feedback cycles.

I don't think China cares much about IPR, or point 3 will include ways to bypass IPR. IPR is a non point.

The political will, to circumvent the safeguards, which is abundantly available in China to implement the 4 steps mentioned prevents India from doing what is necessary

[nachiket]

When it comes to jet engines there are no shortcuts. For all their "reverse engineering" prowess, the Chinese have spent enormous amounts of money on their engine program and they still struggled for years to even match the AL-31F. Only now after all the billions spent and years of toil are they seeing results. If we want our own engine we have to be willing to spend billions as well on R&D and developing all necessary testing infrastructure within the country. But we would much rather spend $4 billion on buying Predators and another billion on six Apaches.

[hgupta]

The Kaveri program must be made a national strategic priority project and separate funds aside from the MoD must be made specifically for this program. PM Modi must tell then finance Ministry to set aside $6-7B no matter what the objections are and task the appointed agency to carry out this program to fruition and keep funding it as whatever it takes to succeed. That’s how the US, Britain, France, USSR and China did it.

[Rakesh]

https://x.com/Rethik_D/status/1766040664217883028?s=20 ---> This Patch.

https://x.com/raflanker/status/1766042678871851023?s=20 ---> NFTC = National Flight Test Centre.

[Prasad]

Post the whole thing saar

https://twitter.com/sriramthg/status/17 ... 68/photo/1 --->

[Rakesh]

Post the whole thing saar

This is what came up on my twitter feed. But the image you posted is better. Very nice. Thank You.

[hemant_sai]

Recent Alpha Defence video posted pointed to further possible delays of Mk2 rollout going in 2026 and even that is not certain to say first flight in 2027.

Reasons could be many, but this needs serious evaluation now.

1) I am still in favour of completing the Mk2 process which is stepping stone and tech. demo of many things for AMCA/TEDBF. But now I am not in favour of having production orders for Mk2.

2) It seems deliberate so that Mk2 production will be started after delivery of second batch ordered of Mk1A. Or it is deliberate to keep single engine fighter valid for MRFA.

3) Production of AMCA Mk1, TEDBF planned from 2033 means we have no choice but to conclude MRFA sooner and buy even more than projected 114. And yes it means we won't achieve Atmanirbharata for another 20 years.

4) With advancement in Mk1A, third batch should be planned so that we have a strong 15 squadron of Mk1As only.

5) Rather getting emotional we should focus on eliminating vulnerability asap. Hard decisions are required. I would say, we need to select 2 vendors other than US to get more fighters sooner. If this govt doesn't take those decisions this year, then by 2029/30 IAF will be the weakest position compared to 2 front threat.

6) or best is to eliminate 1 front before 2029. In the absence of western threat removed, Easter threat will automatically postpone and we will have more time in hand to prepare.

7) Also it appears that stealth obsession is over hyped, including weapon bay stuff. Looking at our realities, it will be far better to de-prioritise amca and focus on TEDBF with its orca version. monetary resources can be better used to prepare our own engine with practical requirements which can be achieved by 2030.

8] what we see is all dream requirements are deliberately set. e.g. when mk1a was proposed there should have been consensus for 2 engine mk2 even with 80kn thrust. But instead we keep pushing requirements to next level where it is more guaranteed to fail in terms of timely completion of project.

[JTull]

Nitin Gokhale's new video quoting HAL CMD, mentioned rollout in Dec 2025 or early 2026. Ignore all other noise.

[hemant_sai]

1) fact that other than mk1a , no new production will be started before 2032. And there are more chances that even 2032/33 is not guaranteed.
2) and in any case we need 26 rafale M + 54 iaf = 80 (total 90 for iaf wl b good enough as per Air Marshal R. Nambiar). Assuming India will push for local assembly.
again optimistically can start coming slowly from 2028/29, not guaranteed.
3) It means we need to be realistic and look at what we can do for sure.
Tejas mk1a order of 97 should be expedited and
additional 80/100 Mig29 UPG with increased indigenization.
4) It may cost 3-4bn $. But this assured buffer of 80/100 Mig29 will go long way to ease the pressure on IAF.
I am assuming new Mig29 manufacturing can be started from 2025 in nashik division it can be wrapped up by 2033.
5) we need to keep at least 120 Mig29 till 2045.
6) In the next decade it should be only below fighters after 2035,
Tejas mk1a+,
Mig29 UPG IN,
Rafale F3/F4,
Orca/Tedbf,
Super Su30

We should go for stealthy pods carrying weapons externally instead of using internal weapon bay.

Going for AMCA and Tejas Mk2 just doesn't make sense now.
2050 target should be,
Tejas mk1a/b/c,
Orca/Tedbf,
06th Gen AMCA.

[Rakesh]

The more BRF focuses on timelines (set by HAL, DRDO, PMO, MoD or whoever else) the more frustrated BRF will get.

Stop focusing on the timelines and focus on the following fact ---> Tejas Mk2 will come. It will come spectacularly late, but it will come. BR has been around since 1997. And since that time (and even prior!), there has never been (and there never will be!) a single military acquisition program - of significance - that has ever come on time.

Keep Calm and Carry On!

[hemant_sai]

No accountability, No retrospection?
If iaf takes the accountability and we have to leave at it, I am fine.
But if they leave the blame to MoD then it is not good.
We are effectively at mercy of MoD babus who could be manipulated by external forces.
IAF should take responsibility for time bound product than dream product with enthusiastic timelines.

[Pratyush]

Hemant,

in one of your posts above you have listed 80 to 100 Mig 29 UPG. A better option would be to order that many LCA Mk1A extra. We have an active line for the aircraft. it will be easier to scaleup an existing line as compared building a brand new assembly line.

Rest I am not really worried about other programs as they will come when they do.

We are like this only.

[hemant_sai]

200% with you on this. It is only with assumption that iaf is looking for some capabilities which mk1a can't fulfill but Mig29 can.
Also we cannot scale up mk1a as we are limited by engine supply.
We need quantity sooner, no other motive to promote Mig29.

[Rakesh]

No accountability, No retrospection?
If iaf takes the accountability and we have to leave at it, I am fine.
But if they leave the blame to MoD then it is not good.
We are effectively at mercy of MoD babus who could be manipulated by external forces.
IAF should take responsibility for time bound product than dream product with enthusiastic timelines.

Where is the accountability or retrospection for all the screw ups Air HQ, the MoD, GoI has done to date? Which officer, babu or politician is going to face the music? The circle of incompetence and mismanagement will always happen with zero accountability.

Who is/are the Babu(s) (along with the then Raksha Mantri George Fernandes) who jumped onto the asinine idea of cancelling the 126 Mirage 2000-5 deal in the early 2000s and went in for the MMRCA contest? George Fernandes is no longer alive, but which of these wonderful characters ever faced any accountability or retrospection in the decades that followed?

The only military acquisition program that ever came on time - that I can remember - is the AgustaWestland AW101 VVIP helicopter. The deal was signed in February 2010 and three airframes arrived in 2012. That thing came magically fast, but the contract got mired in a corruption scandal. Every other military acquisition of significance - local or foreign - comes really late. The FMS military sales from the US did/do come on time. I will concede that.

But lack of accountability / retrospection is no excuse to jettison local programs we have in the pipeline. The capability required is clearly there for the Tejas Mk2. Even the USAF is still getting a fourth generation aircraft i.e. F-15EX today. The squadron strength is equally there for the Tejas Mk2. That math has been proven over and over again. Even with 114 MRFA, you will still need the Tejas Mk2 and that too in triple digits.

If you want AMCA to be a reality, then the Tejas Mk2 must and will come. Everything - technology, production, industry, etc - about the AMCA rests on the Tejas Mk2. One can deny that reality as much as they want, but no Tejas Mk2 = no AMCA. And future upgrades of the Tejas Mk2, will see components from the AMCA flow back into the Tejas Mk2. It will be a symbiotic relationship.

[hemant_sai]

1) I had mentioned in earlier post, I still want to continue with Tejas Mk2 development but I am not in favour for production units now.
2) For AMCA, I am not in favour of even putting efforts for prototypes but technology development must continue. Prototyping efforts should be deferred to 2031 or later when right engine is available.
3) Tejas Mk2 technology must be assimilated for second batch of Tejas mk1a, to be called as mk1b.
4) Along with Tejas Mk2 development focus should be shifted to Tedbf and its orca version.
5) Rafales must be ordered in G2G, but max 54. other than 26 for Navy.
6) aura/ghatak must be fast tracked with air superiority.
7) SAM systems inductions also needs attention
8] With long range missiles, sams, radars and uav, western front gets covered.
In this view, probably we will be good even with 30+ sqdns.
to cover eastern front.
10 sqdn mk1a/b,
10 sqdn orca,
10 sqdn super Su30,
5 sqdn Rafale.

Later Su30 can be replaced with amca after 2040.

we have limited resources and we should optimize for execution till 2035.

If required, I would rather cancel mrfa/rafale as well but not tedbf/orca. Orca can be achieved in parallel to Tedbf.
Aura/Ghatak is far more crucial than getting more Rafales.

[Rakesh]

@hemant_sai: This is the plan ---> viewtopic.php?p=2616101#p2616101

I say again....Keep Calm and Carry On!

[isubodh]

No accountability, No retrospection?

Where is the accountability or retrospection for all the screw ups Air HQ, the MoD, GoI has done to date? Which officer, babu or politician is going to face the music? The circle of incompetence and mismanagement will always happen with zero accountability.

Govt process have accountability and retrospection but its at a level which is at each individual decision level. On that particular level each one takes enough measures that that when accountability is decided the person will have all the right papers to prove his high fidelity. But that series of decision are designed such that the overall motivated objective it met. That objective is already influenced.

[hemant_sai]

@hemant_sai: This is the plan ---> viewtopic.php?p=2616101#p2616101

I say again....Keep Calm and Carry On!

Yes, I will wait till 2030 to post again

So 1 last qn, we can spend billions on rafale which is based on 70/80 kn engine. And we don't want dependency on youS. But still we would make engine decisions which are hard to explain. We couldn't think of 2engine mk2 so that we can create space for Kaveri/M88/RD-33MK.

In 2021 we can declare proficiency in dsi intakes and propose amca and tedbf with it but not mk2, bcoz we want to rollout in 2022. Fast forward 2024, and every 1 on mk2 team knew they have ample time but cannot dare to improve design.

Nobody like me who started following brf from 2017 by now can only say , it is utterly ridiculous.
But hats off to brf team which knows that pride and goodwill for the nation is first and foremost.

Salute!!

[Cybaru]

....

Doubt any ORCA stuff will happen. Aircrafts take a lot of energy. Even small mods.
More Mig29 most likely won't happen.
If at all numbers need to be made up and older stuff retired, we may pick up retiring M2K coming on the market as a 10 year filler.

[hemant_sai]

If at all numbers need to be made up and older stuff retired, we may pick up retiring M2K coming on the market as a 10 year filler.

I would take it happily. But I read that those additional mirages are only coming to maintain existing fleet. Not to be used as additional combat fleet.

Other surprise that I missed from SJha post that it indicates no more Rafales which will be great only if our programs are expedited with that savings.

Fingers crossed

[ashishvikas]

Twitter thread by @Indrani1_Roy

https://x.com/Indrani1_Roy/status/17735 ... 71100?s=20 --->

#TejasMk2: Thoughts are boiling over.

Many things have changed since 2005, when the first 5th generation fighter F-22 was operationalized. Today's 4.5 generation fighters are technically superior to F22 in every aspect but stealth and thrust to weight ratio.
There so I am not going to use the term 4th generation and 5th generation. I am going to say stealth and non-stealth aircraft.

There is no bigger exponent of stealth aircraft than USA. and they have been very clear about their lessons.
Stealth aircraft are the tip of the spear. Because it is financially unviable to maintain a fleet of only stealth aircraft. So much so, that they are finding all kinds of adaptations for F22 and F35. "Stealthy pylons", "stealthy drop tanks". God knows what they mean!
And they are designing non-stealthy fighters in the presence of 1000s of F35, which in itself is a few steps back from the bleeding edge of stealth which is the F22.

And let's look at the "6th-generation" aircrafts. We have kind of run out of ideas!!!
One thing is quickly evolving 6th generation aircraft will have the ability to work as relays or mothership for guiding attritable unmanned wingman aircrafts. So, do the 6th generation really need to be stealthy? Or should it have the highest aero-efficiency affording it ...
... volume to hand true and hand long, just outside the reach of adversarial kinetic responses?

One thing is for sure that a swarm of attritable UAVs is going to be much more effective and much more survivable than any stealth aircraft!

Forgetting the global scenario, and returning to India. If IAF feels the need for MRFA whose evaluations have not even begun! Which means it is a few years away from orders! Which means even more years from production!

Then there is some explanation to do!
For MRCA the time from selection to first delivery was over 7 years. Even if we say that we can identify the aircraft and finish cost-negotiation in say 3 years (near impossible, but let's say), then the first MRFA aircraft will take of in more than a decade!
So, anybody who supports MRFA (With Gripen NG) as a contender and questions Tejas Mk2 should revisit their biases and check their hypocrisy meters!

As for AMCA vs Tejas Mk2, one needs to understand two things.

1. In AMCA there are real research problems to be solved. In Tejas Mk2, there are few engineering problems to be solved.

2. The technical readiness of the entire ecosystem to produce and maintain AMCA en-mass.
If the US is revisiting its stealth aircraft question regarding cost of operating a "all-stealth" airforce, then India with 1/5th the GDP and 1/35th per-capita GDP should be very careful.

Tejas Mk2 is the next logical step after Mk1A. This should be clear like day!

[Rakesh]

If at all numbers need to be made up and older stuff retired, we may pick up retiring M2K coming on the market as a 10 year filler.

I would take it happily. But I read that those additional mirages are only coming to maintain existing fleet. Not to be used as additional combat fleet.

Other surprise that I missed from SJha post that it indicates no more Rafales which will be great only if our programs are expedited with that savings.

Fingers crossed

I am sorry to say this, but your interpretation of SJha's post is not correct. I am reposting the tweet again.

https://x.com/SJha1618/status/1773283439996797189?s=20 ---> 220 + 201 + 272 + 189 = 882

Now look at the numbers carefully and answer the following questions;

1) What do *EACH* of these numbers represent?
....................220 = ? aircraft
....................201 = ? aircraft
....................272 = ? aircraft
....................189 = ? aircraft

2) Which is the newest aircraft that just entered the fleet?

3) Why is that aircraft not included in the list above? She will have a minimum of a four decade service life in the IAF.

4) If she has been included in the list, then why are you not seeing that specific number for that aircraft?

5) In the absence of that specific number, the only logical explanation is that it has been merged with another number*

*Quoting a line from a movie --> If you eliminate the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth.

Think of the future planned acquisitions (in terms of numbers) of both foreign and domestic aircraft and see how it slots in to the numbers above.

Also consider this ---> why are two of the most ardent supporters (Saurav Jha and HVT Sir) of Atmanirbhar Bharat putting out tweets - in the recent past - of a particular aircraft and the nation that it comes from? Example ---> viewtopic.php?p=2571651#p2571651 . That tweet is from HVT Sir's old twitter account that is no longer active, so the image does not load. Another one from HVT Sir ---> viewtopic.php?p=2615525#p2615525

So what is the plus point for Saurav Jha and HVT Sir in doing this?

Read the tweet carefully It is cryptic and the reason is best known to Saurav Jha. While I do not have mind reading powers, I assume that the AMCA - at least the first two squadrons - is included in that list. So lets see.

Also see what the Indian Govt's Union Minister for Road Transport & Highways had to say

Rafale Fighter Jets To Roll Out From Mihan-SEZ In Nagpur, says Gadkari
http://m.timesofindia.com/articleshow/107196397.cms
28 January 2024

[srai]

^^^

…
1) What do *EACH* of these numbers represent?
....................220 = ? aircraft
....................201 = ? aircraft
....................272 = ? aircraft
....................189 = ? aircraft
…

1. 220 => Tejas Mk1/1A (replace MiG-21, MiG-27)
2. 201 => Tejas Mk.2 (replace Jaguar, MiG-29, Mirage-2000)
3. 272 => AMCA (replace Su-30MKI)
4. 189 => Ghatak? (replace Rafale, MMRCA)

[Rakesh]

^^^

1. 220 => Tejas Mk1/1A (replace MiG-21, MiG-27)
2. 201 => Tejas Mk.2 (replace Jaguar, MiG-29, Mirage-2000)
3. 272 => AMCA (replace Su-30MKI)
4. 189 => Ghatak? (replace Rafale, MMRCA)

If that is the interpretation you got, then more power to you Saar

My Pranams to You!

[hemant_sai]

220 + 201 + 272 + 189 = 882
So 189 is the mysterious number but why it would include amca at all? It could also be seen as imported no. Including existing 36.
I would love to see the expected timeline though
Is it 2040 or 2045?

I am more interested in time till 2035. 201 is not even starting till then and assuming mrfa starts coming from 2030 then it will be 72 out of 189 by 2035.

Mig29+Mirage around 120 to continue till 2035/40.

When AMCA will start inducting it will be part of 272 ie retiring su30.

All and all 189 number is bit ambitious number to be true.

[Rakesh]

220 + 201 + 272 + 189 = 882
So 189 is the mysterious number but why it would include amca at all? It could also be seen as imported no. Including existing 36.
I would love to see the expected timeline though
Is it 2040 or 2045?

I am more interested in time till 2035. 201 is not even starting till then and assuming mrfa starts coming from 2030 then it will be 72 out of 189 by 2035.

Mig29+Mirage around 120 to continue till 2035/40.

When AMCA will start inducting it will be part of 272 ie retiring su30.

Expected timeline is how our discussion started Timelines are very rarely, if ever, adhered to. Almost everything comes spectacularly late. Don't go by timelines. Very little usually comes on time, including imports. Focus on Timeline = Increase in Blood Pressure

If 189 does not include AMCA (and you could be correct!), that will mean even more imports.

By the end of this decade, the 83 order will be complete. The 97 order will stretch it to the early 2030 and by then the Mk2 will (hopefully!) on the production line. Want to venture a guess as to when the 201 Tejas Mk2 will be complete? 2040 or later?

And since nothing ever comes on time, one can see why Air HQ is so insistent on the MRFA. And if the MRFA will be obsolete by the time the contract is completely fulfilled, how relevant will Tejas Mk2 be when her 201 order is completed? Both are fourth generation platforms.

All and all 189 number is bit ambitious number to be true.

If 201 is true, then 189 will equally be true.

[pravula]

*Quoting a line from a movie --> If you eliminate the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth.

Its a quote by the fictional character, Sherlock Holmes. The quote appears in the novel The Sign of Four by Sir Arthur Conan Doyle.

[Rakesh]

Its a quote by the fictional character, Sherlock Holmes. The quote appears in the novel The Sign of Four by Sir Arthur Conan Doyle.

Thank you. So Spock (of Star Trek fame) got it from there. Nice to know.

[Rakesh]

https://x.com/Indrani1_Roy/status/17735 ... 99163?s=20 ---> If the US is revisiting its stealth aircraft question regarding cost of operating a "all-stealth" airforce, then India with 1/5th the GDP and 1/35th per-capita GDP should be very careful.

Tejas Mk2 is the next logical step after Mk1A. This should be clear like day!

So someone responded to one of IR's tweets (posted above). That tweet is below.

https://x.com/dharmalebnsraum/status/17 ... 54715?s=20 ---> What about timelines for 114+26 Rafale F4.1 production in India?

Posting IR's replies to the above question below...

https://x.com/Indrani1_Roy/status/17735 ... 43733?s=20 ---> Are we serious about Atmanirbharta? Why should India set up a shop in 2030 and then build Rafales?!! Why not shore-based versions of TEDBF?! This will auger well to both both programs. LCA Mk1A, Mk2, TEDBF, TESBF, AMCA will all feed of each other's development!

https://x.com/Indrani1_Roy/status/17735 ... 56846?s=20 ---> Think of logistics simplicity. Think of economies of scale in acquisition, maintenance and upgradation! Why is this hard to see?!!!

https://x.com/dharmalebnsraum/status/17 ... 48581?s=20 ---> We will have a Vikrant 2.0 commissioned well before TEDBF even does taxi trials. So we will need additional Rafales there, even if MRFA is scrapped.

https://x.com/Indrani1_Roy/status/17735 ... 82860?s=20 ---> If we think we need Rafales, we will need Rafales. China did not think that they needed Rafales and therefore they continued with accelerated production of J10s and development of future designs. Results speak for themselves

[ashishvikas]

^^
I think, it's almost certain we would buy more Rafales - IAF & GoI wants that.
After election, would get more clarity on Numbers/Engine/Production.

[Cybaru]

There was hope for NLCA as a training squadron. Maybe between 12-18. Sjha didnt say much about that.

If 189 is Rafales, then it probably includes the naval orders in it. No way IAF gets 189 of those puppies. No budget for that.

[Rakesh]

There was hope for NLCA as a training squadron. Maybe between 12-18. Sjha didnt say much about that.

If 189 is Rafales, then it probably includes the naval orders in it. No way IAF gets 189 of those puppies. No budget for that.

NLCA will come IMVHO. The Navy will need it for the lack of a twin seater, carrier capable Rafale M. It will be the Indian Navy's T-45 Goshawk

The 36 Rafale C/Bs in IAF service now + 22 Rafale Ms + 4 Rafale Bs for the Navy = 62 airframes in total. Take that number out of the 189 that Saurav Jha posted and you are left with 127 aircraft. Fairly close to the MMRCA 1.0 contest, which was for 126 airframes.

Whatever the final number is, a triple digit Rafale order for the IAF is looking increasingly likely. And to paraphrase Ashish Saar, with buy in from the IAF and more importantly the Govt of India. This will happen if BJP wins the 2024 General Elections and it certainly looks like the BJP is going to win.

[srai]

^^^
IMO, repeat of MMRCA 1.0 GoI will get a sticker price shock. Looking at upwards of $30 billion plus for triple digits Rafales. To put in context, 36 Rafales costs $8 billion and that was without ToT/license assembly.

First order of the day will likely go for 97 follow-on Tejas Mk1A. That itself will be around $8 billion deal.

Tejas Mk2 MWF and AMCA are still on the drawing boards so to speak. GoI doesn’t have to spend large amounts on those just yet. Maybe only after the next election cycle in 5-years at the earliest.

So there is a room for “some” type of deal for Rafales for the IN and IAF, but doubtful if it exceeds beyond $10 billion. Quantities will be limited.

[VishnuS]

There was hope for NLCA as a training squadron. Maybe between 12-18. Sjha didnt say much about that.

If 189 is Rafales, then it probably includes the naval orders in it. No way IAF gets 189 of those puppies. No budget for that.

NLCA will come IMVHO. The Navy will need it for the lack of a twin seater, carrier capable Rafale M. It will be the Indian Navy's T-45 Goshawk

The 36 Rafale C/Bs in IAF service now + 22 Rafale Ms + 4 Rafale Bs for the Navy = 62 airframes in total. Take that number out of the 189 that Saurav Jha posted and you are left with 127 aircraft. Fairly close to the MMRCA 1.0 contest, which was for 126 airframes.

Whatever the final number is, a triple digit Rafale order for the IAF is looking increasingly likely. And to paraphrase Ashish Saar, with buy in from the IAF and more importantly the Govt of India. This will happen if BJP wins the 2024 General Elections and it certainly looks like the BJP is going to win.

If Rafales come, be it for IN or IAF, then TEDBF is not coming!

TBH, I want TEDBF to come.

One more thing is, if Rafales are to come, then at what price and what about adding Indian Weapon Systems and the cost for integration of those systems.

I remember we paid close to $2B for lightening pod and some other systems and this was in 2014-15 price.

I am looking at the price of $40B (assuming we get 150odd Rafales 4.1 at France's price ($20B), $7B for spares worth 10 years of maintenance and $3-4B worth weapons and $10B worth of India Specific Mods)

If we squeeze the shit out of this deal maybe $35B. But that's about it.

[konaseema]

NLCA will come IMVHO. The Navy will need it for the lack of a twin seater, carrier capable Rafale M. It will be the Indian Navy's T-45 Goshawk

The 36 Rafale C/Bs in IAF service now + 22 Rafale Ms + 4 Rafale Bs for the Navy = 62 airframes in total. Take that number out of the 189 that Saurav Jha posted and you are left with 127 aircraft. Fairly close to the MMRCA 1.0 contest, which was for 126 airframes.

Whatever the final number is, a triple digit Rafale order for the IAF is looking increasingly likely. And to paraphrase Ashish Saar, with buy in from the IAF and more importantly the Govt of India. This will happen if BJP wins the 2024 General Elections and it certainly looks like the BJP is going to win.

If Rafales come, be it for IN or IAF, then TEDBF is not coming!

TBH, I want TEDBF to come.

One more thing is, if Rafales are to come, then at what price and what about adding Indian Weapon Systems and the cost for integration of those systems.

I remember we paid close to $2B for lightening pod and some other systems and this was in 2014-15 price.

I am looking at the price of $40B (assuming we get 150odd Rafales 4.1 at France's price ($20B), $7B for spares worth 10 years of maintenance and $3-4B worth weapons and $10B worth of India Specific Mods)

If we squeeze the shit out of this deal maybe $35B. But that's about it.

Vishnu Ji, We already paid for the India specific enhancements as part of the initial purchase and there will not be a need to pay again. That being said, I am doubtful if there will be another G2G deal for direct purchase but will be something similar to the C-295 deal with Airbus. A production line by a Non-HAL entity with MRO facility for Rafale will be the way to go for up to 90 (IAF) and 26 (IN) Rafale's. This will also help us to seal the deal with Snecma for engines for AMCA MkII.

[VishnuS]

Vishnu Ji, We already paid for the India specific enhancements as part of the initial purchase and there will not be a need to pay again.

Those enhancements don't include Astra MK1 and MK2, SAAW, Rudram Series, Air launch Nirbhay or Brahmos MK2, our own LGBs and probably some other stuff that I am missing. By the way whatever enhancements happened, happened on older version F3R model and not on F4 model. So, if we want to use Astra MK1 & MK2 then we have to pay again.

One more thing, I doubt, Rafales can launch any Indian weapons as the India Specific modifications happened before 2015 and many of our systems came online after the modifications are done.

Weapon Sales are also one of the way to earn back, so don't think France will do it for free or at cheaper price.

That being said, I am doubtful if there will be another G2G deal for direct purchase but will be something similar to the C-295 deal with Airbus.

If there is any chance of any defence deal happening, then it will be a G2G. Non G2Gs deals always have kickbacks and corruption, Modi Govt will not take that chance.

A production line by a Non-HAL entity with MRO facility for Rafale will be the way to go for up to 90 (IAF) and 26 (IN) Rafale's. This will also help us to seal the deal with Snecma for engines for AMCA MkII.

If you want a Non HAL production line, then you can get it with LCA MK1A as well. Rafale is not needed.

AMCA MK2 is at least 2-3 decades away. If we need engine tech, then GoI is playing with everyone. I mean F-414 for LCA, Marine Engines from RR, Snecma is helping us in helo engines. I don't think we've decided a partner for our Kaveri series.

PS. I heard a rumor that we're going to tinker AL-31 engine with whatever we learnt from Kaveri Program. The results of that tinkering are awesome. This is hearsay and I didn't have any official info.

[Karan M]

^^^
IMO, repeat of MMRCA 1.0 GoI will get a sticker price shock. Looking at upwards of $30 billion plus for triple digits Rafales. To put in context, 36 Rafales costs $8 billion and that was without ToT/license assembly.

First order of the day will likely go for 97 follow-on Tejas Mk1A. That itself will be around $8 billion deal.

Tejas Mk2 MWF and AMCA are still on the drawing boards so to speak. GoI doesn’t have to spend large amounts on those just yet. Maybe only after the next election cycle in 5-years at the earliest.

So there is a room for “some” type of deal for Rafales for the IN and IAF, but doubtful if it exceeds beyond $10 billion. Quantities will be limited.

There is no appetite in GOI to spend more on defence. They are even going after DRDO to try and move it's core capabilities to the pvt sector whom they think will spend on R&D on their own for assured orders abd hence the R&D budget can be directed towards the usual political stuff. Sadly, even this Govt will not wake up until and unless there is conflict at its doorstep. ABV in 1999 was quite similar in his own way.

[nachiket]

Sadly, even this Govt will not wake up until and unless there is conflict at its doorstep. ABV in 1999 was quite similar in his own way.

Didn't that already happen with Balakot-Feb 27 and the Chinese incursion thereafter? How many more wake-up calls do they require? More likely they see no issues with making "emergency procurements" which our forces and bureaucrats seem to love anyway.

[Prem Kumar]

Even assuming a huge chunk of the budget goes towards freebies/welfare schemes without which our dumb-asses wont vote for this Govt, they can still find the money for Defense by deficit spending

All this crap about We are so proud to have low single digit Fiscal Deficit is going to buy us nothing once the enemy howitzers open up

Even otherwise, we can loosen up on the fiscal deficit to boost GDP growth & not squander away the once-in-a-generation demographic dividend

But for that, the MoF, MoD and the PM have to get their heads together. Specifically, the PM has to bash the heads of the other orgs together: namely Nirmala Sitharaman & Rajnath Singh

[rajsunder]

Vishnu Ji, We already paid for the India specific enhancements as part of the initial purchase and there will not be a need to pay again. That being said, I am doubtful if there will be another G2G deal for direct purchase but will be something similar to the C-295 deal with Airbus. A production line by a Non-HAL entity with MRO facility for Rafale will be the way to go for up to 90 (IAF) and 26 (IN) Rafale's. This will also help us to seal the deal with Snecma for engines for AMCA MkII.

We paid French for integrating these addons to F3 variant, the newer one is F4. We will still have to pay French once again to integrate them to the new variant.