Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

[srai]

After recent €50 billion in economic aid by EU, there are now plans for a 5-year €100 billion military aid package by NATO (EU only).



Meanwhile, US military $60 billion aid package still stuck in US Congress politics.

NATO EU stepping out of US shadow. Over the years, US has become an unreliable partner.

[srai]

Russia has officially begun second round of draft. The first draft was “officially” 300,000. The new second draft is for 150,000.

Plus, unaccounted are large numbers of prisoners, domestic mercenaries, and foreign mercenaries.

Putin Signs Decree For Conscription Of 150,000 Russians Amid Ukraine War

[ramana]

Ukraine has used French Hammer from.Mig-29 on Russian target. It says 250kg Mk82 bomb.

Has video.

https://mil.in.ua/en/news/invader-shows ... n-tonenke/

[Deans]

Russia has officially begun second round of draft. The first draft was “officially” 300,000. The new second draft is for 150,000.

Plus, unaccounted are large numbers of prisoners, domestic mercenaries, and foreign mercenaries.

This is misleading. Russia's regular Bi-Annual conscription has traditionally taken in 130000 men every 6 months.
This has been going on for decades. This time its 150,000 men because the size of the armed forces has increased from 1 to 1.32 million
(and 1.5 million in a year). The conscripts will not be going into combat.

In Sept 22, 300,000 men were mobilized into the Russian army. These were former conscripts who are officially reservists. This was a one-time intake. There was no further mobilization, because of a third category:

This 3rd category are people volunteering for military service at the rate or approx. 1000/ day since late 2022. They are treated as professional
soldiers with a high salary. After the 22 Mar terrorist attack, volunteers jumped to 1600/ day. These are almost all former soldiers or specialists
and they get retrained for 6 months before joining their units.
This figure is also misleading. Some of the 300,000 men are existing contract soldiers who renew their contracts after 3 years of service.
Since both volunteers and mobilized men were former soldiers, Russia chose to take volunteers instead of mobilizing men against their will.

I have put the numbers together in 2 blog posts:
https://rpdeans.blogspot.com/2023/10/uk ... s-and.html
https://rpdeans.blogspot.com/2024/03/uk ... years.html

In both posts, see the section on Russian manpower.

[Deans]

After recent €50 billion in economic aid by EU, there are now plans for a 5-year €100 billion military aid package by NATO (EU only).

Meanwhile, US military $60 billion aid package still stuck in US Congress politics.

NATO EU stepping out of US shadow. Over the years, US has become an unreliable partner.

The money just isn't there with Europe. Even the 50 Bln package has a lot of loans and its over 4 years.

[Deans]

There is the matter of MTCR. US cannot transfer any missiles iver 300 mile range. If it does, then nothing stops Russia from exporting to NK or Iran. Thats a line the US wont cross now that VN is out.

If Hypersonic Zircon missiles (with MTCR limits) are supplied to China and Iran, US Carrier battle groups will have no defense against it.

[srai]

Demographics of each country:

Ukraine


Plus, 8 million Ukrainians refugees in EU. Mostly the younger cohorts.

Russia


https://www.populationpyramid.net/

[A_Gupta]

Iran also warned Russia of a terrorist attack, it is claimed:
https://www.reuters.com/world/iran-aler ... 024-04-01/

"Days before the attack in Russia, Tehran shared information with Moscow about a possible big terrorist attack inside Russia that was acquired during interrogations of those arrested in connection with deadly bombings in Iran," one of the sources told Reuters.

Iran arrested 35 people in January, including a commander of Islamic State's Afghanistan-based branch ISIS-Khorasan (ISIS-K), who it said were linked to twin bombings on Jan. 3 in the city of Kerman that killed nearly 100 people.

It would be good to have direct Iranian confirmation.

[drnayar]

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/wor ... 063827.cms


" During a meeting on Thursday, which coincided with the 75th anniversary of Nato—a celebration somewhat dimmed by the ongoing conflict at its borders—member countries resolved to delve into their military stockpiles for additional air defense systems.This decision aims to bolster Ukraine's defenses against Russian ballistic missile attacks.
Stoltenberg highlighted the urgency recognized by the alliance members following discussions with Ukrainian foreign minister Dmytro Kuleba, who made a strong case for further air defense support, particularly emphasizing the need for US-manufactured Patriot missiles.
Central to the conflict have been the German Leopard 2 and the US M1 Abrams tanks, which have recently seen increased demand in Eastern Europe. The Leopard 2, introduced in 1979, and the M1 Abrams, which debuted a year later, have proven their capabilities in conflicts such as those in Afghanistan and Syria. With around 3,600 Leopard 2 tanks built since the late '70s and utilized by 21 nations, and about 10,700 M1 Abrams variants serving in various wars and used by nine countries, these tanks represent the evolution of Nato's armored strength.
The Leopard 2A4 variant, likely to be supplied to Ukraine, and the M1A2 SEP Abrams, the advanced version used by US forces, exemplify modern tank warfare's direction towards high-speed, heavily armored, and long-range combat vehicles.
Missile systems
The MIM-104 Patriot missile system, developed by Raytheon, has gained recognition for its effective defense against ballistic missiles and ability to engage long-distance targets. Similarly, the Storm Shadow missile,"


... blah blah blah


What it means in reality:

America bleeding Europe dry.,
"Get rid of your old weapons". For Ukraine of course. Buy new. all from America. Enriching them and pauperising Europe. Lockheed, Boeing, Thales etc all laughing their way to the bank
Europe's leaders have a gun to their head by muricas 3 letter agencies [even macron]

[YashG]

India might have tried to remain neutral in this war but China has helped clandestinely. When India locks horns with China, china will get russian support too. Whatever support from west we will get will be useless - goldplated armaments that will not last a month.

West has little to offer to us in military sphere (whatever it can, it doesnt). We might have chosen the wrong side in this war.

[srin]

What side have we chosen in this war other than our own?

[YashG]

What side have we chosen in this war other than our own?

We have been neutral, like I said.

[VishnuS]

India might have tried to remain neutral in this war but China has helped clandestinely. When India locks horns with China, china will get russian support too. Whatever support from west we will get will be useless - goldplated armaments that will not last a month.

West has little to offer to us in military sphere (whatever it can, it doesnt). We might have chosen the wrong side in this war.

Do you know Russia uses us as a counter weight to China.

This isn't something Russia does it today, the first sign that I noticed was RIC, which latter morphed into BRICS.

[YashG]

India might have tried to remain neutral in this war but China has helped clandestinely. When India locks horns with China, china will get russian support too. Whatever support from west we will get will be useless - goldplated armaments that will not last a month.

West has little to offer to us in military sphere (whatever it can, it doesnt). We might have chosen the wrong side in this war.

Do you know Russia uses us as a counter weight to China.

This isn't something Russia does it today, the first sign that I noticed was RIC, which latter morphed into BRICS.

^^^
Russia doesnt trust China; No country does. Russia trusts India; Many countries do.

But Russia received a lot of material help from China not India. India only bought oil, which China did too.

In a war to supplement our own reserves ( which btw our MoD absolutely believes in not building, they are all jaichands) - only russia would be of help - not west. The only war we will need reserves for will be against China. (Pakistan is even worse in reserves and industrial capacity). In such a war, I wonder where will the Russian side fall.

[srai]

Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refineries going deeper. Crossed previous 1000km max. Taneco refinery is the 3rd largest in Russia.

Strike on Russia's Taneco refinery marks leap in Ukrainian drone radius

…
Ukraine's longest-range drone strike to date at 1,115 km

Confirms strike range that threatens nearby Taif refinery

Strikes have impacted 1.6 million b/d capacity so far
…

[Aditya_V]

Whats the best part , US has asked Ukraine to get alternate targets- Not Russia or Putin

https://twitter.com/business/status/1777735096209952997

Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin warned that Ukraine’s recent attacks on Russian oil refineries risk impacting global energy markets

[VishnuS]

Do you know Russia uses us as a counter weight to China.

This isn't something Russia does it today, the first sign that I noticed was RIC, which latter morphed into BRICS.

^^^
Russia doesnt trust China; No country does. Russia trusts India; Many countries do.

But Russia received a lot of material help from China not India. India only bought oil, which China did too.

In a war to supplement our own reserves ( which btw our MoD absolutely believes in not building, they are all jaichands) - only russia would be of help - not west. The only war we will need reserves for will be against China. (Pakistan is even worse in reserves and industrial capacity). In such a war, I wonder where will the Russian side fall.

Russia will not fall on the side of selling weapons to China. Infact, Russia wouldn't want India and China to fight in the first place. If both India and China fight and weaken, then Russia knows that it is on the line.

First and foremost, India doesn't believe in prolonged wars and it can't afford such wars.

Forget us, will China believe in prolonged wars!?

War is doesn't just mean weapons....

Logistics plays an important role.

To quote Napoleon "Army marches on its Stomach"...

Superiority in numbers and Local Superiority are entirely different things. It's an interesting concept, I suggest you read about it.

Forget all of this, let's say war starts, Russia agrees to support China with weapons. I am 100% sure that it doesn't, but for sake of argument let's assume so. How long does it take for Russia agrees to send weapons say 1 million Arty Shells, how long does it take for Russia to send them and how long will it take to reach frontlines...

A couple of months, at least, do you think the war between India and China last that long!?

Bhai, stop thinking Hypothetically. Your fears are unfounded.

[sanman]

Russia Has Powerful New Glide-Bomb: FAB-3000

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qw06oTa-owY

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-OeCmKhQD4k

Will India go in a similar direction? Are we incorporating glide-bombs into our capabilities?
Is China doing this?

[Manish_P]

...Are we incorporating glide-bombs into our capabilities?
...

Short answer - yes.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DRDO_Glide_Bombs

[srai]

Global conflict has escalated….

Ukrainian parliament has passed conscription laws paving way for mass mobilization. Also, manufacturing 2 million drones this year.

Iran has launched mass drone strike on Israel as a retaliation of killing of one of its generals. It is only the beginning…

Middle East conflict escalation serves Russia well. The West attention diverted. Israel more important to them.

Let’s see where all these lead to. There are opportunities for other nations to act upon their own military campaigns.

All of us will feel it monetarily — higher fuel prices and costs of goods.

[srai]

Tu-22 shot down

[hgupta]

Tu-22 shot down

I call that BS. Most likely it was an engine failure and the Ukrainians being the shameless SOBs they are took credit for something that they did not do.

[Aditya_V]

Ukraine has videos to show Tu 22 crash or IL 50 down, but when asked where are videos for 18-20 Su-34 being shot down in a week, they say Russians have a black out on taking videos??

[Deans]

Tu-22 shot down

I call that BS. Most likely it was an engine failure and the Ukrainians being the shameless SOBs they are took credit for something that they did not do.

It crashed outside the range of Ukrainian SAM's, 2 of the crew were debriefed. Cause it apparently engine failure, which can happen when a
50 year old airframe is being flown so often.

[srai]

“Turtle” tank … could these be the future direction of armor vehicles to protect against drones?

[Aditya_V]

Turtle Tank means like a Tank destroyer in WW2, it cannot fire on the sides, the tank is restricted to Fire support and not much use in Tank on Tank battle where turret can swivele sideways.

[srai]

^^^
Enemy tank a less threat … compared to millions of drones in production.

[srai]

Looks like $60 billion US military aid is going to happen. They wasted 6-months in political circus. When it is finally signed, it will take until June/July to start reaching Ukraine.

Russia has a narrow window of opportunity to gain as much ground as it can take in the Spring Offensive. After that, it will become a slugfest and may result in winding back on gains.

[vimal]

US has sunk over 300 billion USD on a fruitless war with Vlad. That money is enough to fund every homeless person and free education for each college kid.

[srai]

^^^

All the aid is really just handing out mostly old US military stocks. Those then replaced by new stuff. So the “aid” is not new money they are spending in Ukraine. All of it going back into the US MIC.

[srai]

Besides, that money better spent on other things argument goes both ways. Both sides wasting lot of money and for what?

[A Deshmukh]

US has sunk over 300 billion USD on a fruitless war with Vlad. That money is enough to fund every homeless person and free education for each college kid.

Most of the money will be going as loans to Ukraine. Ukraine will be pledging what it has - fertile land. Good long-term (30-40 yr) asset building.
most of the money will be used to buy existing stocks (old and expiring). saves money to dispose this stock.
with the old stock gone, replenishment (new stock) need to be ordered. this will boost the economy. defence companies, contractors, politicians, cities and workers in those companies, general public who owns stock, 401k in these companies - all these will see +ve effects.

in all this process if a few million Ukranians and Russian die - so what?

[putnanja]

I believe almost a third of the money will go to US defence dept as they have already transferred the weapons from their stockpile to Ukraine and it will be to replenish their stocks. The amount for weapons also will go to US companies as US will buy the weapons and give them to ukraine. So 90% of the amount is being spent within the US itself.

[ramana]

Lt Gen V.K. Saxena analyzes Russia's Achilles heel in Black Sea.

https://www.vifindia.org/article/2024/a ... he-See-Saw

[Aldonkar]

US has sunk over 300 billion USD on a fruitless war with Vlad. That money is enough to fund every homeless person and free education for each college kid.

Most of the money will be going as loans to Ukraine. Ukraine will be pledging what it has - fertile land. Good long-term (30-40 yr) asset building.
most of the money will be used to buy existing stocks (old and expiring). saves money to dispose this stock.
with the old stock gone, replenishment (new stock) need to be ordered. this will boost the economy. defence companies, contractors, politicians, cities and workers in those companies, general public who owns stock, 401k in these companies - all these will see +ve effects.

in all this process if a few million Ukranians and Russian die - so what?

I agree with the what the contributor above has stated. The US aid is a loan not a gift. I know that in the case of WW2 aid to the UK was similar (Land Lease) and the UK only paid off the loan a few years ago.

[vijayk]

https://twitter.com/iMac_too/status/1781601789558792221

https://twitter.com/iMac_too/status/1782031408174936492

[Tanaji]

https://twitter.com/iMac_too/status/1781601789558792221

https://twitter.com/iMac_too/status/1782031408174936492

That second video: Modiji pulls no punches… must watch!

[sanman]

US passes spending bill for both Ukraine and Israel

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6olZPDt5YoM

[Vinit]

I call that BS. Most likely it was an engine failure and the Ukrainians being the shameless SOBs they are took credit for something that they did not do.

It crashed outside the range of Ukrainian SAM's, 2 of the crew were debriefed. Cause it apparently engine failure, which can happen when a
50 year old airframe is being flown so often.

Hmm. I'd like to understand how this was an engine failure. The video shows the aircraft plummetting from the sky straight down (falling leaf pattern). A single engine failure on a TU-22 will allow decent glide capacity due to the other engine working. Even if (unlikely) both engines failed, the aircraft would lose height in a descending pattern in a steep glide, not fall straight down. The fire at the rear and the straight descent shows a sudden and total loss of lift, usually due to an explosion with immediate destruction of propulsion and violent change to aircraft orientation causing a stall. Could be a SAM with a heavy warhead, could be weapon detonation, but IMHO doesn't look like engine failure - so would be interested to know details on the latter theory.

[sanman]

Why was Putin rushed to the Kremlin for an emergency meeting last night?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GY6ETPvCCLs