Iran-Israel Conflict: News & Discussions: 14 April 2024

[Pratyush]

And I’m sure that the explosions and killings that took place in Iran were not the work of Mossad, were they?

Let's assume for a minute that they were conducted by Mossad.

Why should those people not have been targetted?

Iran is a country that has threaten to wipe out Israel from the map. The people who can help the Mullas of Tehran in that goal are a legitimate threat for Israel, therefore, targets.

[Pratyush]

Perhaps business and pleasure

Meeting 72 while already being in company of the 72.

Is that 72 x 72

[Kakkaji]

^^^
Slow moving drones are really only useful as saturation decoys. Exhaust SAM batteries.

Lesson for India is to induct more affordable AD options for countering drones. Using Barak-8, Akash etc not sustainable in large numbers.

What about old-fashion anti-aircraft guns that fire hundreds of rounds per minute? Won’t they be suitable for countering drone swarms?

[Tanaji]

What about old-fashion anti-aircraft guns that fire hundreds of rounds per minute? Won’t they be suitable for countering drone swarms?

Saar, this is the way to go. You need something cheap to take out cheap drones. The uber fancy lasers require too much power to be carted around. Imagine quad AA guns or 50 mm guns on a custom rapid swivel mount slaved to a radar optimised for below 10 k feet. Add to that special bullets that fragment like the AA of old and we have a potent and cheap solution. All of this is readily available even now and can be integrated if the will is there.

[srai]

Just need to order many more Sudarshan CIWS …



https://twitter.com/DefenceDecode/statu ... 3864896514



https://www.instagram.com/defencedecode/p/C1hv4xbR33d/

3P ammo

[Manish_P]

Just need to order many more Sudarshan CIWS …
...

+1

[srin]

The India situation is completely different from Israel.
* Unlike Israel, which is a postage stamp sized country, we have a 3000+ km border with Pakistan, and 4000+ km border with China. It's impossible to guard the perimeter with CIWS. Because the question is - where will you site them ? If the range is say 2km for the shells, will you site them 1500 of them at 2km intervals (and at what distance from the border) ? And how will you guard against tree-top level incursions ?
* Unlike the Iran attack, there is no buffer between India and its principal adversaries. So, there is no time to react, no time where the drones go over a 3rd country (which in this case helped). Mind you, China can still use Nepal / Myanmar to overfly in a possible drone attack against India and barring some diplomatic protests, those countries will not do anything about it.
* Then, there is a bigger problem in detecting the drones in first place and tracking them throughout the journey in the vast airspace of India. For now, I'll assume we've got AWACS that is providing the update. (Given our pathetic AWACS/AEW procurement, this is a joke but I don't want to be distracted).

However, I agree with the general principle that missiles are a very expensive solution against cheap drones, and Israel could do it only because it is supported by the West (and even here, there are reports that the allies did most of the defense).
I also agree that cannons (esp if they can fire guided shells) are probably a cheaper option.
I don't know about the effectiveness of soft kill solutions (that jam radio comms, lasers etc), so I'll ignore them for now.

To protect a large area, static defenses will not work. Even in the Iran attack, the fighters did pretty effective defense.

A CIWS can be used however for last ditch point-defense in vulnerable points (VPs) like airfields, etc. I'd prefer a larger calibre cannon because even a near miss can shred the target with shrapnel. A land-based version of 76mm Oto naval gun would do nicely.

But at the end of the day, we need mobile platforms that can defend a large area - something like a converted attack helicopter (carrying a 30mm cannon) to against the slow drones and for faster cruise missiles, no choice but to use fighters and SAMs.

[Pratyush]

If the objective is to protect against the drones. Then trying to protect everything thing will become too expensive in a hurry. So much so, that the enemy would have bankrupted us a long before firing his first shot.

We will have to be smart and decide what is the infrastructure that must be protected against such threats and what are the cheapest methods in order to accomplish that.

For example, a motorised drone is too light and too slow. That, an airport arrester barrier will be able to catch the drone before the impact. A similar system can be expanded and implemented around potential targets.

Link for the picture of such a barrier only.

https://www.google.com/imgres?imgurl=ht ... bme%2Ctrie

Similarly, some of the targets can be defended using networked autonomous 23 mm or 40mm Anti aircraft guns.

Some other targets can simply be hardened to an extent that a 20 kg explosive impact will cause no damage.

[srai]

Gun based defense are CIWS

[Pratyush]

Gun based defense are CIWS

Indeed, that is the reason why they are in the mix. They are cheap and plentiful. Can be automated easily and deployed in large numbers.

[sanman]

If Israel launches a significant attack on Iran (and Netanyahu has every motivation to do so, since he's trying to save his own political neck, to avoid facing criminal charges at home) then we could see this trigger a cycle of escalating tit-for-tat that spirals into a wider war in the Middle East.

With West already bogged down in Ukraine, then another major war in Middle East would result in US being completely bogged down -- and this then opens the way for China to invade Taiwan largely unopposed.

[Manish_P]

..
For example, a motorised drone is too light and too slow. That, an airport arrester barrier will be able to catch the drone before the impact. A similar system can be expanded and implemented around potential targets.
..

+1

Indeed Tank top cover nets show basic measures are useful and helpful even as active counter systems are being developed, but it must be kept in mind that weapons and their counters (especially tactics) keep evolving.

For eg. the drone attack might be enmasse, multiple drones on single target (like a hangar for eg) with the first drone impacting the net and blowing it up for the follow-on drone to go and hit the now vulnerable target.

So a mix of defences are required and they need to be in layers. And they must start from our borders to right around the actual important installations.

And last, but certainly not the least, we must have 'x' times counter attack ability. They send 10 drones to hit us, we must be able to send a 100 drones back to hit them right away. For the likes of our primary enemies - the pakis and the chinese - the loss of face is a huge failure in itself.

[sanman]

Chas Freeman - always a good analyst - talks about Israel-Iran-MiddleEast

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C-bkzSVE--s

[sanman]

I think that if the Israelis intend to carry out serious strikes against Iran -- they won't come in from the southwest, they'll come in from the north -- from airbases in Azerbaijan.

The Israelis have been backing Azerbaijan in its war with Armenia, and that's obviously for the purpose of getting some quid pro quo, and securing the right to use airbases in that country to carry out attacks against Iran.

That then also makes me wonder -- is India backing the Armenian side just to prolong the conflict and help Israel to earn more quid pro quo from Azerbaijan? Otherwise, it feels like without our help, the conflict would be more lopsided, and Armenian side would just collapse, and Azerbaijan would have no more need for Israeli help, and thus no quid pro quo with Israel.

[srai]

^^^
Muslim countries are not going to allow their bases to strike “fellow” Muslim nation, especially to a Jewish state.

[saumitra_j]

From TOIlet

Iran state TV says reports of 'big explosions' heard near Isfahan

Israel_Iran War Live: Iran suspends flights over several cities, says Iranian state media

So the fun and games have begun! IMHO this escalation looks like a way to ween away Iranian production of weapons for Russia into the ME theatre. Is Israel becoming a willing pawn in these games by great powers?

[Pratyush]

From TOIlet

Iran state TV says reports of 'big explosions' heard near Isfahan

Israel_Iran War Live: Iran suspends flights over several cities, says Iranian state media

So the fun and games have begun! IMHO this escalation looks like a way to ween away Iranian production of weapons for Russia into the ME theatre. Is Israel becoming a willing pawn in these games by great powers?

The Russians are not dependent on the Iranians anymore. It's Iran trying to fish in troubled waters. And the Israelis hitting back.

[williams]

Israeli's are probing to see AD reaction. When they want to hit they will hit hard and with specific targets in mind. Question is does Iran have the capacity to strike again. If the other Arab countries stay neutral, then Israel will accomplish the goal of reducing Irans capability and go on their way. Biden admin is more and more looking weak and clueless.

[Tanaji]

More match fixing. Attack an irrelevant target in the grand scheme of things….

[srin]

What is clear is that it is much cheaper to attack (with cheap drones) than it is to defend. And that's where the ability to counter-attack just as cheaply becomes an effective deterrent. A country that isn't aided by the US or rich Arab states will ruin the defense budgets very quickly figuring out the defensive options.
It is time we start stockpiling cheap attack drones in dozens of thousands, and use them like guided artillery shells.

[srin]

More match fixing. Attack an irrelevant target in the grand scheme of things….

The PR match is definitely fixed. We don't know what exactly Israel hit and using what weapons. Because if Israel hit their nuclear facilities, neither Israel/west nor Iran would publicize it.
We only get to know some "sources", some visuals - which don't give full picture.

[sanman]

Israel seems to have launched a feeble retaliatory strike against Iran, in response to Iran's feeble retaliatory strike against Israel

Netanyahu has to keep everyone's eyes off events in Gaza and focused on his new distraction -- "war with Iran"

This tactic is called "managing the headlines" -- seems to have worked. We BRFites have fallen for it, with this new thread.

https://www.ft.com/content/7c6ac9ed-f2b ... b9a3616c17

Israel Launches Retaliatory Strikes Against Iran

Israel launched strikes against Iran early on Friday morning, Israeli and western officials said, in what appeared to be limited retaliatory action for last week’s drone and missile attack by Tehran.

Iran’s air defences shot at incoming targets and explosions were reported near the cities of Isfahan, in central Iran, and Tabriz in the north-west, local authorities and media said.

Iranian state media played down the damage from the attacks and Iran lifted flight restrictions imposed overnight.

[drnayar]

Israel seems to have launched a feeble retaliatory strike against Iran, in response to Iran's feeble retaliatory strike against Israel

Netanyahu has to keep everyone's eyes off events in Gaza and focused on his new distraction -- "war with Iran"

This tactic is called "managing the headlines" -- seems to have worked. We BRFites have fallen for it, with this new thread.

looks like a "fixed" cricket match, done just for the optics! [ and some brownie points back home for both parties]

[sanman]

Comrade Binkov's analysis

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KLhbV2rGrz4

[Rakesh]

https://x.com/spectatorindex/status/1781215615291941145 ---> BREAKING: Iranian official tells Reuters there are no plans for retaliating against Israeli strike.

[Deans]

My latest blogpost on the Gaza war, I argue that Israel has turned it around and called the bluff of Hezbollah and Iran.

https://rpdeans.blogspot.com/2024/04/ga ... round.html

[Pratyush]

X posting from the IAF thread.

Isreal hit Ishfan with Rampage. IAF procured them too.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.busine ... 24-4%3famp

That means that the Arab states cooperated with Israel against Iran.

Saudi Arabia and UAE will be happy with an Iranian bloody nose. For it's support to the Houthies.

Interesting times ahead.

Deans, this article if true, is an endorsement of your hypothesis of a split between Iran and Arabs over the war.

[sanman]

The drones that appeared over Isfahan were identified as quad-copter type drones. Those simply wouldn't have the range for a long-distance operation.

Online speculation is that it's likely the Israelis/US got their proxies, the Mujahedin Khalq organization to send up those drones locally to do the attack.

[Tanaji]

My latest blogpost on the Gaza war, I argue that Israel has turned it around and called the bluff of Hezbollah and Iran.

https://rpdeans.blogspot.com/2024/04/ga ... round.html

Deans ji , very good and factual analysis. While not military related, would you have any commentary on the infrastructure in Gaza and the destruction of the same by Israel during the war?

My understanding was that given Gaza economy it had above average infrastructure and its health network was top class with more hospitals per person than its neighbours. The people also looked well fed, clothes. How much of it is remaining?

[Pratyush]

^^^
Slow moving drones are really only useful as saturation decoys. Exhaust SAM batteries.

Lesson for India is to induct more affordable AD options for countering drones. Using Barak-8, Akash etc not sustainable in large numbers.

I have been thinking about the part in bold for some time. My initial thoughts towards a solution to this issue were mostly AA arty and Shorad. Along with passive crash protection nets.

On deeper reflection, I have thought of an unmanned fighter drone, controlled by the IADS. Like the GCI of WW2. With the following attributes.

1) Cheap, expendable, unmanned aircraft. No more than 5 to 6 times more the cost of a Shahid. But reusable for 50 to 100 times.

2) A cheap onboard radar for terminal interception solutions and 23 mm or 30 mm gun/ cannon with 200 to 300 rounds.

3) A repurposed Auto engine with 300 hp. Because the max flight altitude is under 10 k feet.

4) All up weight, as light as possible.

5) Combat radius of 200 to 300 kms.

Because the aircraft is unmanned, Autonomous, reusable, and integrated with the GCI system. It can be built by the thousands and still be cheaper in terms of dealing with a near saturation attacks from such drones.

[vimal]

^^ Please clarify the testing strategy. Will it need Summer and Winter testing or four seasons testing. What about space travel, will it work in vaccum and be able to withstand solar rays?

[Pratyush]

All excellent questions. The Indian Brass will make a dog's breakfast of it.

But not the Pakistanis, Chinese, Iranians, Russians and generally any other serious military.

[sanman]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mKc7YJ2YCY4

Iran's nuclear centrifuges came from Pakistan. Pakistan is the reason why Iran has a stockpile of fissile material.
Clearly, there's a significant risk that Pakistan could sell nuclear weapons technology to Iran, just as it has done in the past.
That could be nuclear material, weapons designs, even missile technology.
Given the emerging Cold War between Iran and US/Israel, then Pakistan represents a growing liability to the latter.

[Deans]

My latest blogpost on the Gaza war, I argue that Israel has turned it around and called the bluff of Hezbollah and Iran.

https://rpdeans.blogspot.com/2024/04/ga ... round.html

Deans ji , very good and factual analysis. While not military related, would you have any commentary on the infrastructure in Gaza and the destruction of the same by Israel during the war?

My understanding was that given Gaza economy it had above average infrastructure and its health network was top class with more hospitals per person than its neighbours. The people also looked well fed, clothes. How much of it is remaining?

Al-Jajeera has published info on damage to infra, though not immediately available with me. From what I have:

Gaza and the West Bank had a lower income and worse infra than its immediate peers Egypt, Jordan and Syria.
It is a fraction of Jewish Israel.

Gaza had fewer doctors per million than Egypt or Jordan (excl volunteer agencies), but has a similar life expectancy and slightly lower infant
and maternal mortality than Egypt and Jordan.

[Deans]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mKc7YJ2YCY4

Iran's nuclear centrifuges came from Pakistan. Pakistan is the reason why Iran has a stockpile of fissile material.
Clearly, there's a significant risk that Pakistan could sell nuclear weapons technology to Iran, just as it has done in the past.
That could be nuclear material, weapons designs, even missile technology.
Given the emerging Cold War between Iran and US/Israel, then Pakistan represents a growing liability to the latter.

One scenario could be Russia helping Iran complete the process of getting nukes. If a Shia country has the bomb, Sunni Saudi (or Turkey) will want it and take it from Pak, which will significantly change the relationship between Saudi and Pak.

[Aditya_V]

I think Uncle has full control of the Anti Hindu bomb, Turkiye and Saudi would have got itlong back if control over it was with the Pakis.

[sanman]

One scenario could be Russia helping Iran complete the process of getting nukes. If a Shia country has the bomb, Sunni Saudi (or Turkey) will want it and take it from Pak, which will significantly change the relationship between Saudi and Pak.

I read Russia is going to be delivering a bunch of Su-35 superflankers to Iran, which could bolster its defences against foreign strikes.

America's war on Russia has certainly skewed the pitch in the Middle East, by giving Iran an opportunity to come to Russia's aid, and thus earn reciprocal favours.