Prem Kumar wrote: ↑29 Aug 2023 00:20If Rafale is the winner, why not cut to the chase and go for a G2G negotiation?
Heck, just combine it with the Rafale-M negotiation. Why waste time and then claim "swindling squadrons"?
If there is an actual MRFA RFP all over again, it will be a joke. What the heck was the purpose of MMRCA then?
Methinks the IAF, for whatever reasons, wants the Gripen. But the MoD is letting them know gently that its Rafale. But all this waltzing is costing us time & money.
If you want to know who the winner of the MRFA is, then don't look at just the aircraft being offered. But rather, what of strategic value is coming with this MRFA contract? Strategic Value = Turbofan for AMCA. Therefore, do the process of elimination...
1) Which company/country can India partner with in a JV for the AMCA turbofan?
- France (Safran)
- UK (Rolls Royce)
- US (General Electric)
The Gripen E is powered by a GE F414 turbofan. What value can Sweden provide here? Gripen E is out. And Mother Russia is involved in a war in Ukraine. What value can they provide in a JV for a turbofan? The MiG-35 and Su-35 are also out. Because Sweden and Russia have nothing to provide, that leaves only US (F-21, F-15EX), UK (Typhoon) and France (Rafale).
2) Which company is currently under investigation by the CBI for allegations of corruption in the BAe Hawk deal?
- Rolls Royce of the United Kingdom.
So Typhoon is out. So now the list comes down to three aircraft --> US (F-21, F-15EX) and France (Rafale)
3) IAF is insisting on a local turbofan for the AMCA Mk2.
- The EPE variant of the GE F414 will not make the cut, as that would be a no-go for the IAF. They want a local turbofan and Air HQ will not accept an uprated F414 turbofan. So F-15EX and F-21 are also out, unless GE is willing to partner with GTRE to develop a 110kN turbofan. Unlikely.
Who is left?
And NaMo's visit to France in July sealed that deal. An announcement will be made post the 2024 General Elections. With regards to your comment about
"waltzing is costing us time and money", I point you to the recent comment from the CEO of Dassault ---> "
With India, you have to be patient." There is no other way around this, other than playing the waiting game.
The JV for the AMCA turbofan is not going to be inexpensive. This is a decade long, multi-billion dollar investment. The only way to reduce that cost - via offsets - is to tie in strategic requirements with the 114 MRFA contract. India cannot afford a stand alone JV engine program with one country plus invest in a separate program for 114 MRFA with another country plus invest in a separate program for 26 MRCBF with yet another country.
One (Reliable) Country, One (Reliable) Vendor to check off multiple boxes. That is the end goal for the GoI.
The above are political considerations for the GoI and even the Indian Air Force. There are technical considerations which also favour Rafale (but can be hotly contested by the other OEMs), but that is a separate discussion and will not be applicable to this particular post of mine.
This is not a politics thread, but I will say this ---> Remember the desperation (by the opposition) to get NaMo charged with corruption in the first Rafale deal? This was part of the ultimate goal to eliminate Dassault (via blacklisting) from supplying fighter aircraft to the Indian Air Force. Once you remove Dassault from the picture, it is a clear path for the other Euro Canard (Typhoon) and the American birds. That did not happen. India's true enemy lives within her borders. India's opposition is infested with boot lickers.