Lok Sabha Elections 2024 - World's largest elections - Desh Ka Garv [World's envy]

[vijayk]

Yashwant Deshmukh on low 2024 turn out: (some parts are in Hindi so you may have to turn on Caption)

can you summarize please!

I am freaking out since Deep state got to SC to get him out!!

[Sumeet]

The only merit of Kejriwal getting out is that he will make it personal against BJP/PM Modi. This should work in favor of BJP generally.

@vijajk, will do so a little bit later. Right now I am so happy that Sri MSA is out of his lockdown. Enjoy the day !!

[AshishA]

I believe in the Modi factor. The seats where the vote share margin is too less, Modi's personal Bhakta army will flip it and I believe there exists atleast 1% of those people in every constituency whom every pollster will miss and they are definitely coming to vote. They have only one wish and that is to see Modi win. They will show up regardless of heat, travel or anything else. Modi will return and mine will be a small contribution as will everyone else's here in that cause.

[Sumeet]

Tagline should be Congress respects TSP even though they send terrorists into India. Congress respects TSP by giving them dossiers in return because they are atomic power and their H&D has to be maintained and honored.

[chetak]

Bail granted to campaign in elections is such a good precedent. I hope it leads next to things like bail granted to take part in Bigg Boss, or to finish pending Reels.

Hemant Soren has also filed a bail application for 'poll campaigning' to the SC. Precedence has already been set. How will the SC deny bail to Soren if they've granted it to Arvind Kejriwal on similar grounds?

Next in line is Amritpal Singh, who is fighting in elections. He too is requesting bail for campaigning. His case is stronger than Kejriwal's because unlike Kejriwal, Amritpal is a candidate himself.

An interesting Pandora's box has been opened. Now all kinds of criminals will fight in all kinds of elections—local, municipal, district, state—and request bail for the campaigning for the same.

[rajsunder]

https://twitter.com/sgurumurthy/status/ ... 9684870466

Very well argued affidavit. Almost irrefutable points.

Point 1: 123 elections have taken place in the past 5 years & if interim bail is granted for campaigning, then no politician can be kept in judicial custody since polls take place around the year.

Point 2: Campaigning is part of a politician's job and, following the rule of equality, small farmers or small traders can also seek interim bail to carry out the demands of their work. It also stressed that Kejriwal is not even contesting the ongoing elections.

Point 3: "If Kejriwal) is given interim relief on the ground he is a politician for the purposes of campaigning in the general elections for his party, will not all politicians incarcerated in one case or the other seek similar treatment saying all politicians are a special class

The judges made up their mind to release him even before they heard the arguments.

[S_Madhukar]

BIF has 2 Bhasmasurs on the loose. They are not giving up without a fight - not now and not after Jun 4. At such times I wonder do we have files on such penguins or we rely on Chinese whisperers - somehow like most B grade Bollywood movies our villains get a long rope. Discovery of Bharat has been fatal, it is now puppeteered by savages from afar

[krithivas]

The relentless abuse of the "browns" choosing their own destiny continues unabated cleverly using the brown sepoys.

"Many Indians Don’t Trust Their Elections Anymore"
https://www.theatlantic.com/internation ... di/678336/

[Sumeet]

A longer version of PM Modi's interview with Arnab, Republic TV

[A_Gupta]

PM Modi interview with NTV: https://youtu.be/7uPCQq-Tng8?si=9yqkfuAR_gu-7WKa
In the first few minutes he says the elections are more a matter of chemistry than of arithmetic.

Later he says that he believes his electoral success is based on support from women. (Haha, how many women on BRF? No wonder the dhotis shiver! The basis of PM Modi's electoral success is absent here!)

[A_Gupta]

Dhruv Rathee − When Hindu-Hatred Goes Berserk

Shrikant G Talageri writes:
https://talageri.blogspot.com/2024/05/d ... -goes.html

[ricky_v]

An even interesting thing is that kejru never applied for a bail, yet was granted one, the judiciary certainly has some intriguing ways of looking at things when certain people are involved

[Prem Kumar]

As much as the SC has acted in a disgraceful manner by releasing Kejriwal, I think its a good thing net-net

I hope he attacks Modi. This election has not been enough of a Modi Referendum (which 2014 & 2019 were). INDI alliance is playing silent guerilla warfare, Chinese whispers, outlandish freebies, local issues, the usual caste divide etc. But have been careful not to repeat "Chowkidar Chor Hai" type stuff

They dont want a frontal confrontation with Modi & have been smart that way (with no doubt, foreign guidance). Hope this changes

[chetak]

[chetak]

#Congress leader Mani Shankar Aiyar says India should respect Pakistan because it has an Atom Bomb. If we don't, they may use it against India.

Aiyar needs to understand that this isn't the India of 2008, which did nothing after Pakistan-backed terrorists attacked Mumbai.

Today, under PM Shri @narendramodi ji's govt, India knows well how to defend its land and its people.



WATCH VIDEO


The video is about 1:39 minutes long

[rajkumar]

Not just a problem in India

How “judge-mandering” is eroding trust in America’s judiciary

https://archive.ph/2024.05.09-150623/ht ... -judiciary

[Hriday]

Several psephologists and their trusted sources are saying that there is Modi wave in Telangana, Odisha and great performance in West Bengal. Andhra Pradesh also said to be looking promising. It gives hope that NDA can reach near 400. One comment in social media is that BJP's target of 400 seats for NDA is based on; 303 seats won in 2019 + 70 seats in which BJP become second+ 30 seats for other NDA allies.


1.
https://twitter.com/addheeraj/status/17 ... g4MFQ&s=19

Odisha 2024 will dwarf Bengal 2019 in scale and impact. Naysayers who say things were as positive in 2019 in the state and then the BJP underachieved miss a few critical differences
1. Modi’s popularity in Odisha is the highest in any state in the country.
2. Nabin Babu is conspicuously absent in the campaign unlike last time.
3. Pandian becoming the face of the campaign is the biggest negative for the BJD. Odiyas are very friendly , but they’re very proud.
4. BJP’s poll promises have dented the BJD’s core women vote.
It is no longer a fight about who emerges the largest party in LS in the state. The fight is now about who will win the state assembly.
Where is Congress? Nowhere in the race as there are not enough Muslims in the state.

2.
https://twitter.com/savvyasaachi/status ... uxxlA&s=19

TELANGANA & ANDHRA are HEADING towards NDA

TG, as we say indelibly, is having a tremendous Modi wave while the combination of TDP-JS-BJP +Modi as the Leader works for NDA in AP

Visited TG number of times since Nov, even last week while visited AP thrice in last 2 months

3. About West Bengal.
https://twitter.com/sreeramjvc/status/1 ... l05eg&s=19

Rosgulla Update

8-1 (1 Toss Up)

Something Very Big is Brewing.

Didi would go wild on Adhir Dada on June 4th.

[vijayk]

Several psephologists and their trusted sources are saying that there is Modi wave in Telangana, Odisha and great performance in West Bengal. Andhra Pradesh also said to be looking promising. It gives hope that NDA can reach near 400. One comment in social media is that BJP's target of 400 seats for NDA is based on; 303 seats won in 2019 + 70 seats in which BJP become second+ 30 seats for other NDA allies.


1.
https://twitter.com/addheeraj/status/17 ... g4MFQ&s=19

Odisha 2024 will dwarf Bengal 2019 in scale and impact. Naysayers who say things were as positive in 2019 in the state and then the BJP underachieved miss a few critical differences
1. Modi’s popularity in Odisha is the highest in any state in the country.
2. Nabin Babu is conspicuously absent in the campaign unlike last time.
3. Pandian becoming the face of the campaign is the biggest negative for the BJD. Odiyas are very friendly , but they’re very proud.
4. BJP’s poll promises have dented the BJD’s core women vote.
It is no longer a fight about who emerges the largest party in LS in the state. The fight is now about who will win the state assembly.
Where is Congress? Nowhere in the race as there are not enough Muslims in the state.

2.
https://twitter.com/savvyasaachi/status ... uxxlA&s=19

TELANGANA & ANDHRA are HEADING towards NDA

TG, as we say indelibly, is having a tremendous Modi wave while the combination of TDP-JS-BJP +Modi as the Leader works for NDA in AP

Visited TG number of times since Nov, even last week while visited AP thrice in last 2 months

3. About West Bengal.
https://twitter.com/sreeramjvc/status/1 ... l05eg&s=19

Rosgulla Update

8-1 (1 Toss Up)

Something Very Big is Brewing.

Didi would go wild on Adhir Dada on June 4th.

Will be so glad ...

[vijayk]

Satta Bazaar Predictions Out

BJP - 330-335
NDA - 385-390
WB - BJP 2/3rd seats
INC - 27-34

https://twitter.com/i/trending/1789219989003604049

[vijayk]

https://twitter.com/semubhatt/status/17 ... 1522718167.

Guys ... Looks like US Amb Garcetti conceded the election

This video is giving me a lot of confidence in BJP victory ... LOL

[A_Gupta]

If a certain definite total number of seats is written in the BJP’s destiny, I would prefer the BJP gain seats in the south (thus losing some in the north and west).

IMO it is supremely important that BJP is established as a truly national party competitive and with seats from each state.IMO the order of importance is majority to form govt., seats from each state, and lastly >400.

[Sumeet]

https://twitter.com/semubhatt/status/17 ... 1522718167.

Guys ... Looks like US Amb Garcetti conceded the election

This video is giving me a lot of confidence in BJP victory ... LOL

How exactly this video means what you said above ?

Also, I will summarize that video of Chaubey taking Yashwant's interview later today.

[VinodTK]

New member to join the surgical strike ever happened club, 2 days before the polling

Telangana CM doubts if surgical strike ever happened at terror camp; BJP says ‘Congress giving clean chit to Pakistan’



From: The Tribune

[triank]

//Where is Congress? Nowhere in the race as there are not enough Muslims in the state.//

This line, SOOO telltale!

[S_Madhukar]

Pawarful is admitting as much saying regional parties should merge into Khangress, so one can expect after 2024 to have a thugbandhan with the Khangressis corpse still flopping around … this is not the end but the beginning of the end for now… so please vote wisely

[Sumeet]

AIM calls Rahul Gandhi India's biggest National Security threat after Xi Jinping and TSP

[uddu]

If a certain definite total number of seats is written in the BJP’s destiny, I would prefer the BJP gain seats in the south (thus losing some in the north and west).

IMO it is supremely important that BJP is established as a truly national party competitive and with seats from each state.IMO the order of importance is majority to form govt., seats from each state, and lastly >400.

For that there is no need to lose seats in the North. Let them sweep the North and increase the tally in the South. Also helps them to concentrate more in the South without having to worry about seats in the North. This time, there will be huge increase in the percentage of votes for BJP from the South. Major wins in Telengana, Andhra and Karnataka and expected to win seats in Tamilnadu and Kerala.

[A_Gupta]

^^^ The BJP won 303 seats in 2019. All I'm saying is that if it is some such number in 2024, a more even distribution around the country is preferable to winning mostly in the north, etc. etc.

[chetak]

Satta Bazaar Predictions Out

BJP - 330-335
NDA - 385-390
WB - BJP 2/3rd seats
INC - 27-34

https://twitter.com/i/trending/1789219989003604049

vijayk ji,


The stock market seems a tad jittery

[Dasari]

If NDA wins 350+, the first thing they have to do is abolish SC collegium. SC is not done yet. They will do something more mischief in the last one or two rounds in a way BJP will not have time to fight back.

[williams]

We need a constitutional amendment to make our judiciary for the people, by the people and of the people first. Judges appointing judges is creating a quasi theocratic system that has no checks and balances IMO. We need an independent judiciary that is accountable to the citizens of the country.

[OmkarC]

New member to join the surgical strike ever happened club, 2 days before the polling
[url=https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/lok-s ... tan-620203]Telangana CM doubts if surgical strike ever happened at terror camp

https://twitter.com/savvyasaachi/status ... uxxlA&s=19
TELANGANA & ANDHRA are HEADING towards NDA

TG, as we say indelibly, is having a tremendous Modi wave while the combination of TDP-JS-BJP +Modi as the Leader works for NDA in AP
Visited TG number of times since Nov, even last week while visited AP thrice in last 2 months

Fingers crossed. While the wave looks credible on social media, key sources of uncertainty in TG:

#1 Not sure how much the typical BC voter that constitutes 55% of the state electorate has believed the fake video of Amit Shah about removing all reservations. Modi, Shah have repeatedly called out that video being fake, but unclear whether that clarification has seeped through the entire society. Even a shift of 1-2% votes matter in constituencies where there are tough fights. Currently at least 8/17 are tight fight constituencies.

#2 Owaisi has now openly declared his support to Congress - has asked Muslims to vote Congress in some key constituencies in his own unique style. So much for being B-team of BJP ! Perhaps low IQ lefty journos will call Congress a B-team of BJP ?



Its been known for a while that MIM has cozied up to Congress when Chota Owaisi became pro-tem speaker after Congress won assembly elections, and Bada Owaisi successfully arm twisted and got two of his business partners - one a criminal land grabber and another a poultry farm owner MP tickets. The land grabber shot off his mouth against Lord Rama recently DMK style, lets hope electorate teach him a befitting lesson.

#3 KCR is tactfully co-ordinating efforts in specific constituencies and targeting specific demographies, wherever there is a tight fight between BJP & Congress, to split opposition vote. BRS-BJP have mostly similar vote bank - competition is for rural voters, w/ urban voters leaning BJP. In areas where BRS has sensed they would never win, they have decided to transfer their vote entirely to congress.

Essentially everyone is ganging up..

Still think max of 8 seats possible... Modiji is a Yuga-purusha born to do extraordinary deeds and these petty politicos and their cheap conspiracies should not stop him.

[Hriday]

https://twitter.com/i/trending/1789219989003604049

vijayk ji,

The stock market seems a tad jittery

Chetak ji, there is a good analysis on whether share markets movement reflects the BJP's chances. A lengthy analysis, but easy to read. He provides comparisons of several phases of elections in 2019 and the market movements. Main excerpts is given below.

https://twitter.com/ShrrinG/status/1788 ... tPSGQ&s=19

.....
So, what actually happened?
· Between 11th and 22nd April (first trading day after 18th April), when the BJP was languishing behind the opposition, the market actually went up except a marginal fall on 22nd April.
· After 23rd April, the day when the BJP won the highest number of seats in any one phase, the market hardly reacted for the next few trading sessions.
· On 29th April, 6th May and 12th May, the days when the BJP won most handsomely against the Congress, the market remained flat or went down on next few trading days.
· In fact, the lowest Sensex level of the election period was on 13th May, which was the day after three rounds of strong BJP performance.
.On 17th May, the last trading day before the close of the election, the market ended almost 2000 points (~5.1%) below the levels of 10th April, the last trading day before the start of the election.
· In today’s market level terms, this would be ~3800 points fall between the start and the end of the election.
· The market cheered on 20th May after the exit polls. But again, ended flat on 21st May. Note that the market close on 21st May was less than 100 points over the 10th April level.
Even in 2019 election, supposedly an easy election in today’s hindsight, the market was as restless as it is today. Most importantly, the market movements on specific days had nothing to do with what had already transpired in the elections before that day.

In Summary
What happens when markets go up and down? Someone gains either way.
Volatility always benefits someone, so can volatility be engineered?
Your anxiety is someone’s profit boosting.
Also note, that the number of NSE investors themselves have gone up ~4.7 times from 88 lakh to 4 crore plus between the 2019 and 2024 elections
Many of these new investors are active on social media, in fact their stock market participation is very social media driven
Hence, every rise and fall in the market gets overinterpreted.
....
Sit back, relax, enjoy the election campaign and wait for 4th June.
.....

[chetak]

vijayk ji,

The stock market seems a tad jittery

Chetak ji, there is a good analysis on whether share markets movement reflects the BJP's chances. A lengthy analysis, but easy to read. He provides comparisons of several phases of elections in 2019 and the market movements. Main excerpts is given below.

Thanks for the inputs, Hriday ji.

Kind of you to have taken the trouble.

[chetak]

पार्लियामेंट में अड़ानी अंबानी को बुरा भला इसलिए कहते है कि नोट भरकर पैसे नहीं भेजते, अगर भेजते तो नहीं कुछ कहेंगे - अधीर जी


"Parties attack Adani and Ambani in Parliament & everywhere because they don't send money to them.

If they send money nobody would say anything....all things hide behind money" - CONgress Leader Adhir Ranjan Choudhary openly attacks Rahul Gandhi


WATCH VIDEO


The video(s) are about 0:38 minutes long

[gakakkad]

Judging by how things are looking overall , I think the results will be as expected. This is not going to be 2004 redux . Not remotely. Anything other than bjp government seems very far fetched .

[srin]

#2 Owaisi has now openly declared his support to Congress - has asked Muslims to vote Congress in some key constituencies in his own unique style. So much for being B-team of BJP ! Perhaps low IQ lefty journos will call Congress a B-team of BJP ?

Its been known for a while that MIM has cozied up to Congress when Chota Owaisi became pro-tem speaker after Congress won assembly elections, and Bada Owaisi successfully arm twisted and got two of his business partners - one a criminal land grabber and another a poultry farm owner MP tickets. The land grabber shot off his mouth against Lord Rama recently DMK style, lets hope electorate teach him a befitting lesson.

And yet, Congress and AIMIM are secular, while BJP is communal !

[KL Dubey]

Judging by how things are looking overall , I think the results will be as expected. This is not going to be 2004 redux . Not remotely. Anything other than bjp government seems very far fetched .

Yes - whichever way one slices and dices it, conclusions seems the same.

If NDA is to be contained below 400, it means INDI and unaligned parties need to get at least 143.

That seems a challenging task.

In the south (in which I include MH and GA), the best case for non-NDA parties is about 95 seats. With BJP's surge in the south and the weakness of YSRCP and BRS, it is hard to see how they can get more than 95, and the actual results could be considerably less than that.

In the central belt from GJ to OD, it will be a sweep by the BJP. INDI will manage barely 5 seats, and with the weakness of BJD, the best case for non-NDA parties is about 15 seats.

In the north-east, NDA has a strong network, I don't see non-NDA parties getting more than 5 seats.

In the north/northwest, non-NDA parties could get about 15 seats, mostly from PB and a few here and there in JK/HR/RJ.

That leaves the Gangetic plain (UP+BH+WB). All INDI parties and the TMC and BSP, have weakened considerably. The NDA is overall very strong, with JDU being the one weak link. All things considered, I think the best case for non-NDA parties is about 30 seats.

So - this gives non-NDA parties a total of 160 seats in the best case. They would have to really work hard to get this number. In the end it could be much less.

[KL Dubey]

#2 Owaisi has now openly declared his support to Congress - has asked Muslims to vote Congress in some key constituencies in his own unique style. So much for being B-team of BJP ! Perhaps low IQ lefty journos will call Congress a B-team of BJP ?

It looks like jaahil-e-azam has panicked. BJP has lit a fire in his own constituency and he is sweating for the first time (may still win this time, though). So he is concentrating resources to make sure he wins "at home" and partly given up dreams of winning in other states.

This seems in the same vein as the comments from Charade Pawar a few days ago basically saying the only option left for regional parties is to join with the INC. This guy has been built up by the media to have a reputation of a "Chaanakya", but now is rapidly turning into "Chaanakam" (cowdung in Malayalam).

[chetak]

पार्लियामेंट में अड़ानी अंबानी को बुरा भला इसलिए कहते है कि नोट भरकर पैसे नहीं भेजते, अगर भेजते तो नहीं कुछ कहेंगे - अधीर जी


"Parties attack Adani and Ambani in Parliament & everywhere because they don't send money to them.

If they send money nobody would say anything....all things hide behind money" - CONgress Leader Adhir Ranjan Choudhary openly attacks Rahul Gandhi


WATCH VIDEO


The video(s) are about 0:38 minutes long

Modiji knows what he is talking about and dimwit pappu just fell into his trap


after that there has been no mention by pappu of ambani adani, nor any significant coverage in the press




“We attack Adani and Ambani in Parliament & everywhere because they don't send money to us. If they will send money, nobody would say anything":- Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury.

You both are exposed now @RahulGandhi @Jairam_Ramesh !

Tempos with cash left from Jamnagar & attack stopped on Ambani. Now attack only on Adani! We knew the chronology. Adhir Ranjan JUST ADMITTED it!