Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

[YashG]

I just wonder what would be consequences if russia nukes ukraine. Kyiv, lviv and 2/3 more cities will bring this long war to a swift end like WW2.
Ukraine's war waging potential will become zero. What will west do then?

[Mukesh.Kumar]

My latest blogpost on the Ukraine war.
Probably the more comprehensive look at casualties and formations, in open source - even if I say so myself.

https://rpdeans.blogspot.com/2024/09/uk ... force.html

Deansji recently You shared an American author/ magazine which spoke about the US Elites realization of the end of Pax Americana. Could you please share it again?

[sanman]

I just wonder what would be consequences if russia nukes ukraine. Kyiv, lviv and 2/3 more cities will bring this long war to a swift end like WW2.
Ukraine's war waging potential will become zero. What will west do then?

West will probably invent some pretext to use nukes. Just like they invented story for Nord Stream destruction.
They will say "Some crazy rogue Ukrainians stole one of our nukes and decided to use it on Russia! We tried to stop them, but they just wouldn't listen!"

I must remind that Washington is currently ruled by lobbies who don't give a damn about US national interest, or global interests - only their own interests of their lobbies are what matter. If nuking the Russians earns the US more pain, those Washington lobbies won't care, because what happens to the US doesn't matter to them.

[Deans]

My latest blogpost on the Ukraine war.
Probably the more comprehensive look at casualties and formations, in open source - even if I say so myself.

https://rpdeans.blogspot.com/2024/09/uk ... force.html

Deansji recently You shared an American author/ magazine which spoke about the US Elites realization of the end of Pax Americana. Could you please share it again?

The ones I follow are
Col Jacques Baud - Retd Col from Europe. Was in NATO intelligence as a Russia expert.
Col Douglas Mcgregor, Lt Col Scott Ritter and Lt Col Daniel Davis all ex US Army/Marines.

[YashG]

I must remind that Washington is currently ruled by lobbies who don't give a damn about US national interest, or global interests - only their own interests of their lobbies are what matter. If nuking the Russians earns the US more pain, those Washington lobbies won't care, because what happens to the US doesn't matter to them.

I agree washington lobbies are currently out of hand and US state is increasingly looking dysfunctional. It doesnt look like a state that has control over its decisions, destiny. Its a dangerous state with nukes and more so, hubris.

[sanman]

I agree washington lobbies are currently out of hand and US state is increasingly looking dysfunctional. It doesnt look like a state that has control over its decisions, destiny. Its a dangerous state with nukes and more so, hubris.

This ideology of globalist leftism has been used as a cover for corrupt lobbies to assert their anti-democratic agendas.
And this has been abetted by a corrupt & captured media, who have long since abandoned their role as watchdogs and instead increasingly become purely political henchmen for a corrupt ruling establishment.

The latest coalition of rulers in Washington now seem to be a marriage of DeepState and WelfareState.
Welfare State is represented by Obama Democrats, and Deep State (or Security State) is represented by NeoCons.
Between them, they will both suck away America's money and prosperity, and let its economic productivity wither and die.
Such is their recklessness and stupidity.

[sanman]

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... clear-deal

Alarm in UK and US Over Possible Iran-Russia Nuclear Deal

https://financialpost.com/pmn/business- ... uk-worries

Russia Sharing Nuclear Secrets With Iran Fuels US-UK Worries

[sanman]

British Foreign Minister David Lammy is just loudly beating the drum for war:



Bah, this Lammy is UK version of Lloyd Austen -- he is "Lloyd of London"

[sanman]

Russia may resume nuclear testing? Wow, the idiots in the Whitehouse are really screwing up the world

[Deans]

Part 9 of my Ukraine war blog.
This one is the longest and has the most detailed numbers for each sector of the front - I did this as I had not seen this analysis done anywhere else.

Read along with part 8, to understand casualties. Part 9 flows from that.

https://rpdeans.blogspot.com/2024/09/uk ... lysis.html

[sanman]

Listen to American redneck military general Ben Hodges, former commander of US forces in Europe

He refers to Russians as "those animals" -- shows you the kind of mentality that exists in the US military

[sanman]

[sanman]

Read this crazy article from Boris Johnson, where he wants UK to fund Ukraine to the tune of a trillion dollars.
He's calling for a Lend-Lease program, a la WW2.

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/its ... join-nato/

[sanjaykumar]

Britain could do with a lend lease of a trillion itself.

[vera_k]

It would provide the UK economy a new stream of income for decades long as Ukraine survives as a nation state. Can see why the UK would want to do it.

[sanman]

It would provide the UK economy a new stream of income for decades long as Ukraine survives as a nation state. Can see why the UK would want to do it.

And how is Ukraine going to pay the UK? Just by living off of US aid & EU aid? So the American taxpayers and EU taxpayers will become vassals forced to pay a tithe to the Holy Ukrainian Crusade?

This sounds crazy. Boris is crazy, and off-the-wall, just like his crazy messed up hair.

These people are literally grabbing at straws, as their ill-conceived strategy crumbles around them.

[sanman]

UK seems to have an undying hatred of Russia, ever since their days of playing The Great Game
I've seen Brit geopolitical "analyst" commentators even speak hopefully of future China-Russia conflict.
By no small coincidence, our own attitude toward Russia is the inverse of the Brit attitude.

[sanman]

[sanman]

I like Alex Christoforou's witty commentary - always hilarious

Start watching from 6:06 onward, to get some great humour:

[sanman]

[Lisa]

Ukraine’s shifting war aims

Kyiv is not being given the support it needs to regain the upper hand over Russia

https://archive.ph/mTiBH

[Sharads]

After two and half years of fighting, Russian progress is slow and insufficient to its strategic aims. Strategically, Russia, with the addition of Sweden and Finland into the American imperium, has been in the most perilous position in its history. The only face-saving left to do is the takeover of entire Ukraine, which, at the moment, seems hardly a prospect entertained by even the most enthusiastic Russians.

Meanwhile, the Americans are bleeding Russia with very little to no cost to themselves; American empire has expanded, its grip on Europe is tightened; Russo-German rapprochement thwarted for the foreseeable future. In the coming years the pivot to China will gain momentum. But before that, the cultural, economic, technological and military muscle of India will be atrophied by making it an American dependency; so as to make it more pliable, to be used as a battering ram against China to extract favorable outcomes for the American empire.

[Lisa]

After two and half years of fighting, Russian progress is slow and insufficient to its strategic aims. Strategically, Russia, with the addition of Sweden and Finland into the American imperium, has been in the most perilous position in its history.

You may need to read more History.

[Tanaji]

There was an article in Bild today about Ukraine being “weeks away” from getting basic nukes domestically.

This is Bild we are talking about so salt factory not just pinches. But it shows where the thinking is heading.

[drnayar]

There was an article in Bild today about Ukraine being “weeks away” from getting basic nukes domestically.

This is Bild we are talking about so salt factory not just pinches. But it shows where the thinking is heading.

that could well mean a russian pre emptive strike !.. unless they are baiting the russians..

[Sharads]

After two and half years of fighting, Russian progress is slow and insufficient to its strategic aims. Strategically, Russia, with the addition of Sweden and Finland into the American imperium, has been in the most perilous position in its history.

You may need to read more History.

Geopolitics in the Atomic Age is historically incomparable. The irreversible presence of the American Empire at Russia's doorstep will constrain the Russian geopolitical landscape for the foreseeable future. Russians are aware of this precariously novel situation, and their inability to reverse it; thus, despite multiple humiliations, they have continued to color inside the lines.

[sanman]

Oh, good grief -- now the West wants to make Georgia into their next Ukraine battleground.

Georgia has just had its elections, which didn't go West's way, so now the usual cast of crooks is coming out to condemn:

[sanman]

See, this is where Hungary's Orban is far smarter than Modi.
Modi has been trying to intercede in the Ukraine-Russia war while it's in full-swing.
Orban is intervening in this budding Georgia situation to nip it in the bud, before it becomes a war.
This is why we Indians always take so many blows on the chin -- because we react much too late.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/ ... on-victory

Orbán Arrives in Georgia After Hailing Ruling Party for ‘Overwhelming Victory’

Viktor Orbán has landed in Georgia after congratulating the ruling Georgian Dream (GD) party for its “overwhelming victory” in parliamentary elections despite widespread concerns about intimidation and coercion of voters.

Hungary’s prime minister is leading a delegation of his senior ministers to meet Georgia’s prime minister, Irakli Kobakhidze, in a two-day visit that is likely to anger fellow EU leaders at a time when Hungary holds the rotating EU presidency.

[sanman]

New Quad: Military Alliance Growing Among Russia-China-Iran-NorthKorea

[sanman]

New Colour Revolution Incoming

Greta's there -- where's Nuland?

[Mukesh.Kumar]

New Quad: Military Alliance Growing Among Russia-China-Iran-NorthKorea

I used to value his analysis before. It seemed that it was an independent OSINT handle that provided good analysis. But recently I have been observing a pro-RoL, pro-Azeri (but naturally) and pro-West bias, so I will take his analysis with a pinch of salt.

For the record, Shirvan Neftchi, an Azerbaijani producer, and has been also named in Wikileaks. Seems his sources of info are StratFor. Most of his information is OK and checks out, but then he mixes opinion and extrapolates quite a bit.

I would suggest the recent video he's done on Pakistan's coming oil bonanza as a data point of how he takes reported news, and then extrapolates to create an opinion piece for an agenda.

[Rakesh]

This senseless war needs to come to an end.

Trump’s victory could mean US withdraws support for Ukraine in war with Russia
https://www.cnn.com/2024/11/06/politics ... index.html
06 Nov 2024

[Manish_P]

This senseless war needs to come to an end.
...

Senseless, Admiral sir?

Surely it makes sense for the Russians to respond to salami slicing by the US at some point.

It makes sense for the US... well wars always make sense for the US

It makes sense for the Chinese to have the US distracted with Russia and for the Russians to become more dependent on the Chinese

It makes sense for India in that we get a little bit more time to grow our industry and our capabilities when they eventually come for us. Not to mention the boost our Military Industry (baby as it is) to increase sales and expand.

Maybe it's only the Europeans who are now wondering if the war makes sense any more.

[Deans]

Part 10 of my blog series on the Ukraine war.

https://rpdeans.blogspot.com/2024/11/uk ... inter.html

[Tanaji]

Part 10 of my blog series on the Ukraine war.

https://rpdeans.blogspot.com/2024/11/uk ... inter.html

Saar, another excellent article! You should get more exposure than the other airhead analysts…

One Q: You touched on this in the blog, but what is the need for Russia to deploy N Korean troops? 3K or so are enough to make a difference. The 155mm shells it supplies are far more valuable than the troops themselves

[Deans]

Saar, another excellent article! You should get more exposure than the other airhead analysts…

One Q: You touched on this in the blog, but what is the need for Russia to deploy N Korean troops? 3K or so are enough to make a difference. The 155mm shells it supplies are far more valuable than the troops themselves

I think the reasons for North Korean troops are:

1. Putin sends a message to the West - if you send thousands of mercenaries (or NATO servicemen sheep dipped in Ukrainian uniforms) we can do the
same. What are 10,000 NK troops (I think the number is 10-12k with 3k at the front currently) today can be 100,000 tomorrow, if the West tries
to escalate.

2. This is being done legally. As per the mutual defense agreement, each country promises to help the other defend its territory if invaded.
The NoKo troops are defending Kursk - which is recognized to be Russia's pre war territory. NoKo is not invading another country.
No European country will sign a similar agreement with Ukraine - France & Uk signed defense agreements in vague language, but they will not
send their citizen to die to Ukraine. That sends a message to Zelensky that Europe does not really care for Ukraine.
Iran can well sign the same agreement with Russia, which will complicate things for the US/Israel.

3. Exposure to modern warfare for the North Koreans who have not fought a war for 70+ years. If his troops fail, they were cannon fodder anyway,
if they succeed, Kim can ramp up the numbers fast and get more goodies from Russia.

[Tanaji]

Thanks Deansji.

In related news:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cp3nv7j1xkxo
Russia suffers worst month for casualties, says UK defence chief

But then this is the Brits… take it with scepticism.

[sanman]

John Bolton makes some surprisingly candid comments:

[chetak]

x posted from the understanding thread


What's happening in Ukraine was 34 years in the making.

One high point was the US overthrowing the legitimate govt of Ukraine in 2014, which set everything else in motion.

This is a neocon war.

WATCH: Jeffrey Sachs tells the cold, hard truth how the US and NATO provoked war in Ukraine in 4 minutes

"It started in 1990, when US Secretary of State James Baker said to Mikhail Gorbachev that NATO would not move one inch eastward...

The US then cheated on this, starting in 1994, when Clinton signed off on a plan to expand NATO all the way to Ukraine.

The expansion of NATO started in 1999 with Poland, Hungary, and the Czech Republic.

Then, the US led the bombing of Serbia in 1999. That was the use of NATO to bomb a European capital for 78 straight days to break the country apart.

The Russians didn't like that very much, but even Putin started out pro-European and pro-American. He considered whether to join NATO when there was still the idea of some kind of mutually respectful relationship.

In 2002, the US unilaterally walked out of the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty. What it did was trigger the US putting in missile systems in Eastern Europe that Russia views as a dire, direct threat to national security, by making possible a decapitation strike of missiles that are a few minutes away from Moscow.

In 2004-2005, the US engaged in a soft regime change in Ukraine, the so-called First Color Revolution.

In 2009, Yanukovych won the election and became president in 2010 on the basis of neutrality in Ukraine.

In 2014, the US participated actively in the overthrow of Yanukovych. Nuland and the US Ambassador to Ukraine...talked about regime change. So they made the new government!

The US then said 'now NATO's really going to enlarge.' Putin kept saying 'stop, you promised no NATO enlargement.'

Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Bulgaria, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, seven more countries in the 'not one inch eastward.'

In 2021, Putin put on the table a draft Russian-US security agreement. The basis of it was no NATO enlargement.

The special military operations started, and five days later Zelenskyy said 'okay, okay, neutrality.'

And then the US and Britain said no way, you guys fight on. We've got your back. That's 600,000 deaths now of Ukrainians since Boris Johnson flew to Kyiv to tell them to be brave. Absolutely ghastly.

We're not dealing with, as we're told every day, this madman like Hitler. This is complete bogus, fake history that is a purely PR narrative of the US government.

We're playing games here. So God forbid a nuclear power comes at us. I don't know what's going to happen, but we came at them."

WATCH VIDEO


The video is about 4:20 minutes long

Thanks to a document that resurfaced in 2022, we know that the German diplomat made clear that the Western alliance promised not to move NATO beyond the Elbe and excluded "Poland and the others."

This destroys the claim that Baker's comments pertained only to Germany.

Baker's promise not to move NATO "one inch eastward" is a documented fact in the public record.

Source: George H.W. Bush Presidential Library, NSC Scowcroft Files, Box 91128, Folder “Gorbachev (Dobrynin) Sensitive.”

[mody]

Experts like Jeffrey Sachs and John Mersheimer having been saying the truth about the Ukraine war for a long time. Sometimes they have even appeared on some mainstream US TV channels, however, the Neocon PR media machine has been successful in fooling the people at large in the US and Europe.