MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

[Rakesh]

Do we have the GAO or MAO reports for the Chinese J-20s., Sir?

Mao report onlee Saar.

100% fleet availability at all times.

[Cain Marko]

....

Kneejerk purchases are Indian specialty, like tandoori chicken, don't you know!

Wrt f35, yes, it'll come with issues but I think an Israel type mod could happen or some other arrangement. Maybe even leased. The IAF will give up on operational sovereignty if the numbers keep dwindling and develop tactical jugaad to use them effectively.

But yeah the su57 has higher probability. Esp. if Trump ends Ukraine war The f35 was a mite likelier in navy colors but now that the navy has chosen the rafale, that's unlikely.

[Manish_P]

Seriously though, and I may be very wrong in assuming this, but what I feel Maitya sir is trying to put across is that - against overwhelming numerical disadvantage in an attritional war, an unpredictable assymetrical counter might be the most effective detterent.

Personally I think the Good Doctor put it best when he said we are a huge country. We should have all sorts of weapons. And loads of them.

Heck we should do jugaad to fire AAMs from our AEWACs

(Ok. Sorry for lame attempt at humor)

[Manish_P]

...
Wrt f35, yes, it'll come with issues but I think an Israel type mod could happen
...

As mentioned in the UK article quoted by Rakesh ji, the Israeli mod was possible only because Israel agreed to hand over all details of the weapons they wanted to integrate on the F-35 to the US.

We will need to do the same.

In the case of Israel it is less risky as most of their enemies are the enemies of the US.

In our case I am not very confident that the US won't pass on the info of our weapons (our AAMs for eg) to the Pakis to develop counters (the F-35 being just the firing platform and not the only one at that) when they feel that we are hitting them more than what the US would want.

[ernest]

Personally I think the Good Doctor put it best when he said we are a huge country. We should have all sorts of weapons. And loads of them.

Sad that budget is limited. One squadron of F-35s vs tons of other weapons and force multipliers. I look at the Apache deal, and think at least an order of magnitude bigger. That is the kind of dent F-35s will put in our budget.

[Manish_P]

Personally I think the Good Doctor put it best when he said we are a huge country. We should have all sorts of weapons. And loads of them.

Sad that budget is limited. One squadron of F-35s vs tons of other weapons and force multipliers. I look at the Apache deal, and think at least an order of magnitude bigger. That is the kind of dent F-35s will put in our budget

Concur 100℅

Make own weapons - keep money in the country.
Sell our weapons - get money for the country.
Use that money to buy things which we can't build.

Very common knowledge on BRF forum. The PM/RM tried to popularize it in their capacity....

We have been taking steps towards it (boots, optics, helis, artillery ammo). Hope we soon start running (ICVs, Missile, MBTs).

My belief is that only huge exports can break the strangle hold of the import lobby. If even that doesn't then at least we will have a bit more funds to budget for the import stuff.

Added : as an aside look at the piddly order of around 500 qty of the ASMI PDW placed recently. Then we see that the US has put the company on its sanctioned list. So it can't probably can't export the guns. How will the company survive with such small orders?

[Rakesh]

(Ok. Sorry for lame attempt at humor)

But it was a good one!

[Rakesh]

Kneejerk purchases are Indian specialty, like tandoori chicken, don't you know!

Wrt f35, yes, it'll come with issues but I think an Israel type mod could happen or some other arrangement. Maybe even leased. The IAF will give up on operational sovereignty if the numbers keep dwindling and develop tactical jugaad to use them effectively.

But yeah the su57 has higher probability. Esp. if Trump ends Ukraine war The f35 was a mite likelier in navy colors but now that the navy has chosen the rafale, that's unlikely.

Saar, there are greater odds of Su-57 coming in than the F-35. But that will be another boondoggle in the making.

The rumour mill is that the IAF wants to do a G2G deal of 90 Rafales. This is the same number that Air Marshal Raghnunath Nambiar (retd) mentioned with the present MRFA acquisition. He was one of the officers involved in the first Rafale contract. Air HQ's rationale is that if Rafale is chosen again, 90 aircraft would complement the 36 presently in service and would bring the total to 126 aircraft. This is what the original MMRCA acquisition was about. He said that 114 aircraft would be required, only if another aircraft was chosen. And that is because that chosen MRFA will have a different maintenance schedule when compared to the Rafale.

But this plan has to tie in with the Govt loosening the purse strings. There will have to be a significant CAPEX increase for the IAF. And with the Govt wanting to do a global contest again, how they acquire such a large number of aircraft - while still being thrifty - will be challenging. The UAE deal for 80 Rafale F4s came to US $19 billion. And that contract was signed in Dec 2021 and with first deliveries to occur in 2027. At today's dollars, that deal will be more expensive. But don't expect a single other "Western" competitor to be any less cheaper.

The UAE deal is at the moment suspended (due to the Pavel Durov scandal). If UAE cancels the deal or keeps it in limbo for longer, then Dassault will re-assign those production slots to another customer. This has yet to happen. None of the future/existing customers (Indonesian Air Force - 42; Egyptian Air Force - 30; Serbian Air Force - 12; Croatian Air Force - 6 and Indian Navy - 26) have an order book this large as the UAE one. The Iraqi Air Force is also in negotiations for 12 Rafale F4s. However there has been no signed contract as of yet, but it does not matter as the order is small.

If the Govt and Air HQ is serious about addressing the squadron shortage issue, they need to make a firm decision. But if electioneering and (geo)politics are prime factors, then we are in it for the long haul i.e. global contest.

[Rakesh]

Below will upset *some* people

https://x.com/Defencematrix1/status/1852789905312907295 ---> If U.S. can offer their (70s design based) F-15EX, F-21 and FA-18 Super Hornets to India under MRFA, then I am surprised why HAL is not participating in this competition teaming up with Russian UAC to offer a version of Su-30MKI with Indian avionics upgrade planned for Super Sukhoi by ADA, DRDO, HAL as well as a composite body, with latest AL-51 engine by UAC. Weapons package can be Indian and I am pretty sure the price will be lower than that competition as well. A low hanging fruit for @HALHQBLR and @UAC_Russia_eng. Russia will have a better chance with this offer than with Su-35s and MiG-35s.

[maitya]

Below will upset *some* people

https://x.com/Defencematrix1/status/1852789905312907295 ---> If U.S. can offer their (70s design based) F-15EX, F-21 and FA-18 Super Hornets to India under MRFA, then I am surprised why HAL is not participating in this competition teaming up with Russian UAC to offer a version of Su-30MKI with Indian avionics upgrade planned for Super Sukhoi by ADA, DRDO, HAL as well as a composite body, with latest AL-51 engine by UAC. Weapons package can be Indian and I am pretty sure the price will be lower than that competition as well. A low hanging fruit for @HALHQBLR and @UAC_Russia_eng. Russia will have a better chance with this offer than with Su-35s and MiG-35s.

All competitors are of 70s design between - Rafale (ECA lineage), Typhoon (ECF lineage) and Gripen (original "JAS" lineage), in addition to, ofcourse the 70s designs from Unkil and Russia.

However I think the above assertion is slightly wrong - corrected as below:
If all the MRFA contenders can offer their 70s design based platforms to India under MRFA, then I am surprised why HAL is not participating in this competition teaming up with DRDO to offer a version of the TEDBF (ORCA) - except for the engines, it'd have been a fully indigenous offer (including the weapons package - plus with an option of integrating videshi weapons, without breaking much of a sweat), at a fraction of a cost.

Now, this will certainly upset import-pasand BWT (and their chamchas here) crowd to no end - a slightest hint of being deprived the beloved imported maals, make them upset anyway.
Yeah, let the cacophony of "not-even-approved", "desi design" (so must be inferior), "furrin-engine", "3-legged cheetah" et all can start now.

[Rakesh]

Where this acquisition could fail is when it comes to cost. But to be honest, none of the other Western competitors will be any cheaper either, when one factors in all the other variables into the mix. And if push comes to shove, the IAF will cannibalize funding for local programs in order to acquire the Rafale. This is what Mao Sir has been clearly stating and a fact that even KaranM mentioned in the Rafale thread as well.

The Israeli Air Force signed a contract for 25 F-15s from Boeing. The deal is valued at US $5.2 billion or US $208 million per plane. Now obviously this includes spare parts, tools, additional engines, etc...just like with India's Rafale deal for 36 aircraft. The Israeli Air Force has been operating multiple variants of the F-15 since the late 1970s. And still the deal is this expensive. If anyone thinks getting a US fighter is going to be cheaper than any other Western fighter, good luck!

Israel signs $5.2 billion deal to acquire 25 F-15 fighter jets from Boeing
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-ea ... 024-11-07/
07 November 2024

https://x.com/Defencematrix1/status/1854465859860734010 ---> Israel MOD Acquires 25 Advanced F-15 Aircraft for $5.2 Billion: The Israel Ministry of Defense (IMOD) signed yesterday a landmark transaction to acquire the next generation of F-15 fighter jets, purchasing 25 advanced aircraft from Boeing.

[SRajesh]

Given the pappi/jhappi with Trumpji and the positive noises made so far in the in coming Trump administration, I feel there will be some give and take!!
Rakesh will it be he plane or Engine??
My bet is not planes but 100 odd (or even more engines) over and above what's already been ordered.
Planes fom Unkil will be probably more Maritime Patrols one or Transport (heavy lift ones)

[Prasad]

Pratyushji, as far as the Super Su-30MKI upgrade program is concerned, for IAF, I think the AL-41 boat has long sailed, and only Saturn AL-51F/Izdeliye-30, would be able to rekindle that interest.
After all, it was not for nothing, IAF was insistent on some kind of participation to the Izdeliya-30 program, as a pre-condition of sorts, to consider a twin-seater version of Su-57, if at all.

Do note, Izdeliya-30 is 5th gen (or atleast close to 5th gen) TF initiative, with "ceramic" usage* in turbines, flat-nozzles etc - mostly shrouded in secrecy, but this one is as cutting edge as it gets.

*most probably, ceramic matrix composite (CMC) turbine blades and maybe even vanes.

GoI placed a massive order for 240 Al-31 engines and the first has been delivered too. Given the penny pinching nature of our folks, I don't see us getting new engines into our MKIs. HVT even hinted at this a year ago. So either the tech wasn't what we wanted or the price was too much. My guess is both.

Would love to see some reference to materials tech in the new AL-41.

As for Su-57, making an MKI version out of it will end up being another decades long endevour. But why? Easier to buy Rafales.

And the only way to counter PLAAF numbers is by stuff we do well - GBAD & ELINT. Tons of it, saturating every crevasse in the himalayas. And of course a few thousand SRBMs of the Pralay, Prahaar mould. HALs MUMT will come when it does and provide distributed scale. A few hundred CATS Warriors with some level of intelligence & automation will be cheaper to build and tougher to manage. Already drones in the Russia-Ukraine war are doing terminal auto guidance to combat EW efforts. These might come online at a similar timeframe as the Mk2 & AMCA. Of course if Air HQ had some sense, they'd get cracking on an AF version of the TEDBF but hey.

[Rakesh]

What Angad is saying is nothing more than an open secret at Air HQ ---> The Indian Air Force only wants the Rafale. They want nothing else. Even the peon who serves chai at Vayu Bhavan in New Delhi knows that Rafale is want Air HQ wants.

https://x.com/sneheshphilip/status/1856357020992950424 --> “Indian Air Power has never been this hollow.”

Had a very interesting discussion on IAF and the way ahead with Air Marshal Diptendu Choudhury (Retd) and ⁦@zone5aviation

'Air Power is most neglected in India, buy more Rafale', says Air Marshal Diptendu Choudhury (retd)

[Rakesh]

Given the pappi/jhappi with Trumpji and the positive noises made so far in the in coming Trump administration, I feel there will be some give and take!!
Rakesh will it be he plane or Engine??
My bet is not planes but 100 odd (or even more engines) over and above what's already been ordered.
Planes fom Unkil will be probably more Maritime Patrols one or Transport (heavy lift ones)

Trump will demand plane contract as quid pro quo for GE F414 contract, which has still not been signed. He will definitely push for the F-15EX or the F-21. It remains to be seen how much the GOI will bend to this request, with Air HQ most definitely not agreeing to it. Cannot push a plane down Air HQ's throat. American plane (or any plane) requires Air HQ's buy in.

See post above. What Air HQ wants is the Rafale, even if it is at truncated numbers and at a protracted delivery schedule. As I mentioned earlier on the previous page of this thread, "Air HQ gets up in the morning with Rafale on their lips. They eat breakfast, lunch and dinner with Rafale on their mind. They go to bed at night dreaming about Rafale."

P.S. IMVHO the GOI needs to cancel the RFI for a phoren 4th gen fighter, give Air HQ a couple more Rafale squadrons and and then put out a RFI for a twin-engine, 5th generation, LO fighter (3 - 4 squadrons at max) and have AMCA participate

Global tender, along with Indian OEM participation

RFI needs to stipulate that if a phoren 5th generation platform is chosen, then plug-and-play of Indian components into the platform is a must. Russia's Su-57E will make the cut ---> viewtopic.php?p=2633833#p2633833

Put out this RFI and it will eliminate the F-35 out of the mix. And the F-22 cannot be sold anyway. Kill multiple birds with one stone.

[Manish_P]

...
Planes fom Unkil will be probably more Maritime Patrols one or Transport (heavy lift ones)

Trump will demand plane contract as quid pro quo for GE F414 contract, which has still not been signed. He will definitely push for the F-15EX or the F-21. It remains to be seen how much the GOI will bend to this request, with Air HQ most definitely not agreeing to it.

IMVHO More P-8I and MQ-9s will be acceptable to both parties. Trump is mainly about the dollars, IAF and IN love the two birds and both India and the US want as many eyes on China as possible.

We would have liked to have more C-17 Globemasters but they are out of production. I doubt we will go for the C-5 Galaxy. Though if we do get them the IAF will use the heck out of them for everything... Including ferrying Indians from Kaneda

[Kartik]

Where this acquisition could fail is when it comes to cost. But to be honest, none of the other Western competitors will be any cheaper either, when one factors in all the other variables into the mix. And if push comes to shove, the IAF will cannibalize funding for local programs in order to acquire the Rafale. This is what Mao Sir has been clearly stating and a fact that even KaranM mentioned in the Rafale thread as well.

The Israeli Air Force signed a contract for 25 F-15s from Boeing. The deal is valued at US $5.2 billion or US $208 million per plane. Now obviously this includes spare parts, tools, additional engines, etc...just like with India's Rafale deal for 36 aircraft. The Israeli Air Force has been operating multiple variants of the F-15 since the late 1970s. And still the deal is this expensive. If anyone thinks getting a US fighter is going to be cheaper than any other Western fighter, good luck!

Israel signs $5.2 billion deal to acquire 25 F-15 fighter jets from Boeing
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-ea ... 024-11-07/
07 November 2024

https://x.com/Defencematrix1/status/1854465859860734010 ---> Israel MOD Acquires 25 Advanced F-15 Aircraft for $5.2 Billion: The Israel Ministry of Defense (IMOD) signed yesterday a landmark transaction to acquire the next generation of F-15 fighter jets, purchasing 25 advanced aircraft from Boeing.

I have been stating this time and again. The F-15EX will be the most eye-wateringly expensive fighter out of the competing fighters for the MRFA. Even with Boeing building them all at St. Louis, it is this costly for an existing operator of the type that doesn't require as much new infra or training of pilots and technicians to integrate the fleet fully.

The cost for an Indian partner to build this type in India will simply be staggering.

I recall having posted an article from Boeing Frontiers magazine many years ago, almost a decade ago I think. It stated that the F-15 is the most complex fighter to build of all US types. Very labor and time intensive, much more so than the F-16 and even the F/A-18 E/F. Now imagine the learning curve for an Indian company partnering with Boeing to build them in India. If the F-15 takes 50,000 man hours to build for Boeing (assuming that figure) it'll take nearly 75,000 man hours to build for another company even with hand holding by Boeing.

[maitya]

...
...

BINGO - there I've corrected it, a bit, for you:

...
P.S. IMVHO the GOI needs to cancel the RFI for a phoren 4th gen fighter, give Air HQ a couple minim 4 more Rafale squadrons and then instead put out a RFI for a twin-engine, 5th generation, LO fighter (3 - 4 for 2 squadrons at max) and have AMCA participate

That way, it'll be a straight fight between F-22 and Su-57 - and maybe F-35 as well ...
Then it will become purely Unkil's call to participate or stick to it's own "policies/laws" of what to or what not to offer to this "turd-world non-NATO ally" (aka the "new" MUNNA ) - and let Russians win* without a fight.
Hey we tried to accommodate you, too bad you are unable to participate - tch tch!!

I'm actually in favor of a 10-year Leasing agreement (with a certain availability % guarantee):
That way, there'll be no consternation (amongst us) wrt loss-of-soverginity etc - hey they can do whatever they wish to do with their aircrafts, why should we feel bad on anything about it.
IAF merely does the flying/fighting and mission-planning (and also provide maybe 2 exclusive bases - not that hard for us to find, one in the Ladakh and another in say in Assam or in AP, will do it).
Everything else, Maint & Support, Weapons, Training IAF personnel, procuring fuel etc etc etc are all lessor headache - if they need our help, there'll ofcourse be a pre-defined charge-back mechanism.

And of course, there's no need of any upfront obscene Capex commitments etc - a much lower year-on-year capex, in pure pay-as-you-go mode.

And between, it's not as if we haven't done such "unclean/immoral" deals in the past - Chakra (I, II and upcoming Akula-IIs) are a very good example of this very same arrangement, isn't it?

Fat fetched? You bet it is - but then again, isn't this whole MMRCA/MRFA etc one big tamasha, in the first place - a little more of the same, wouldn't hurt too much, I guess!!

==========================================================================
* If it's the Su-57s then it'll have to mandatorily include ToT for Izdeliya-30. And for it, if we have to buy (instead of Lease) these 2 Sqns of Su-57s, so be it.

[Rakesh]

The goal - for me anyway - is to remove the American birds out of the contest altogether. By turning this into a twin-engine, 5th gen, contest...it will remove the F-35 out of the mix. Not that the F-35 was ever going to come (due to the S-400). And the F-22 will not come either due to US export laws. And even if that insurmountable obstacle is overcome, weapon sales have to be approved by the US Congress and with the razor thin Republican majority in the House and the Senate, it is unlikely that it will pass muster. That leaves only the Su-57, so another G2G deal of around 54 - 60 aircraft max.

With Russian maal, the question of sovereignty does not arise. Don't have to deal with regular inspections and all the other shenanigans.

[Luxtor]

Where this acquisition could fail is when it comes to cost. But to be honest, none of the other Western competitors will be any cheaper either, when one factors in all the other variables into the mix. And if push comes to shove, the IAF will cannibalize funding for local programs in order to acquire the Rafale. This is what Mao Sir has been clearly stating and a fact that even KaranM mentioned in the Rafale thread as well.

The Israeli Air Force signed a contract for 25 F-15s from Boeing. The deal is valued at US $5.2 billion or US $208 million per plane. Now obviously this includes spare parts, tools, additional engines, etc...just like with India's Rafale deal for 36 aircraft. The Israeli Air Force has been operating multiple variants of the F-15 since the late 1970s. And still the deal is this expensive. If anyone thinks getting a US fighter is going to be cheaper than any other Western fighter, good luck!

Israel signs $5.2 billion deal to acquire 25 F-15 fighter jets from Boeing
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-ea ... 024-11-07/
07 November 2024

....and Israel will not pay a single penny for this purchase. It will be funded by the American tax payer by the way of U.S. Foreign Military Aid Package. So the Israelis can ask for the F-15EX itself and with all the fancy bells and whistles. Why not? They're not paying for it.Israel always either pays pennies on the dollar or gets it for free via aid package from the U.S. So let's not compare apples ro oranges vis-a-vis India acquiring American weapons and Israel getting it. Israel has a GDP of $500 Billion and India has a GDP of $3.5 Trillion, so how can Israel afford such high cost U.S. weapons without getting it as aid packages? It's not a criticism of Israel per se, but if they can swing such sweet deals through out history, then more power to them.

[Rakesh]

....and Israel will not pay a single penny for this purchase. It will be funded by the American tax payer by the way of U.S. Foreign Military Aid Package. So the Israelis can ask for the F-15EX itself and with all the fancy bells and whistles. Why not? They're not paying for it.Israel always either pays pennies on the dollar or gets it for free via aid package from the U.S. So let's not compare apples ro oranges vis-a-vis India acquiring American weapons and Israel getting it. Israel has a GDP of $500 Billion and India has a GDP of $3.5 Trillion, so how can Israel afford such high cost U.S. weapons without getting it as aid packages? It's not a criticism of Israel per se, but if they can swing such sweet deals through out history, then more power to them.

Luxtor, I am highlighting the fact that the F-15EX is not cheap to acquire and even to operate. Whether Israel pays for it or gets the US taxpayer to pay for it, is not the issue here. The CAPEX and OPEX of the F-15 is horrendous.

Below link is for the Indonesian deal for 36 F-15ID for US $13.9 billion. This was reported in 2022. At that cost, each F-15ID for Indonesia works out to a staggering US $386 million per aircraft. And folks were doing rona-dhona over the 36 aircraft Rafale deal for the Indian Air Force. In 2024, the Indonesian Air Force reduced the number to 24 aircraft.

Indonesia – F-15ID Aircraft
https://www.dsca.mil/press-media/major- ... d-aircraft

One can only imagine what 114 F-15s will cost India. And not to mention all the issues that come with operating US-built fighter aircraft i.e. no non-US weapons integration, black boxes, kill switches, annual inspections, restrictions on usage, etc.

Apart from the Rafale (due to the investment already made), it is utter foolishness to spend money on another 4th generation fighter. Get three more Rafale squadrons and end this tamasha once in for all. And if Air HQ sees a requirement for a 5th generation fighter (as a stopgap till "whenever" AMCA arrives), then perhaps they can take a look at the Su-57. It will not be ideal, but the stakeholders got no one else to blame but themselves.

They made this bed and now they can lie in it.

[TVenky]

That leaves only the Su-57, so another G2G deal of around 54 - 60 aircraft max.

++1
Along with G2G, we should also get licence to manufacture and replicate what we did with Su-30.

At this very moment, Su-57 is flying but AMCA is not and first flight will not happen within next 7-8 years at least.
Given the current situation & reasons. AMCA will most likely be 5-10 years further late and when by the time 3rd squadron arrive, 5G might not be as much relevant at all. While still on paper, it is good time to improvise the AMCA design to make it a basically a 5.5G category aircraft minimum and significant elements of 6G.

Keep in mind, "White Emperor" is here now
https://bulgarianmilitary.com/2024/11/1 ... aks-cover/

[Manish_P]

That leaves only the Su-57, so another G2G deal of around 54 - 60 aircraft max.

++1
Along with G2G, we should also get licence to manufacture and replicate what we did with Su-30. ....

Despite paying a lot we were not getting access to the tech we paid for and so had gotten ourselves out of the FGFA program.

On outright purchase we will probably get SKD assembly and indigenous weapon integration but the real 5th gen tech (RAM coating/material, engine etc)- to whatever extent it exists - will remain in Russia.

Even today in the Su-30 MKI production there are some critical components which we are still license bound to procure from Russia

[Rakesh]

A two-tier approach needs to be followed;

1) Buy aircraft off the shelf via G2G emergency procurement.

2) Develop your own aircraft from nose to tail.

The GOI will have to loosen the purse strings for this. You cannot sacrifice one for the other either, as both are now vital. The situation is dire and the IAF will hit below 30 squadrons fairly soon, if not already there. There is no point in crowing about being one of the largest economies in the world, if you do not have the power to back that up. Penny pinching is only hurting the country's national security.

See article below. Playing hop, skip and jump with national security. Negotiating over $167 million, when you can increase the firepower capability of a squadron. Yet these are the same folks that have zero issue with spending billions of dollars on 114 foreign aircraft. And will waste the next few years over the MRCA evaluation tamasha. Deeply disappointed with the Modi Govt.

Same story with engine development, signing contract for the second tranche of 97 Tejas Mk1As, releasing funds for TEDBF, etc. Either the Govt just does not care or is beholden to the bureaucratic process. The Govt is in permanent election mode. Hoping one nation, one election sails through and they actually get down to some real governing, especially with national security.

We are not a serious country.

=========================================

Qatari Offer: $49,920,000 x 12 aircraft = $599,040,000 ($599+ million)
India's Offer: $36,000,000 x 12 aircraft = $432,000,000 ($432+ million)

Impasse over $167,040,000 ($167+ million). Does the PMO have to get involved?

Indian Air Force negotiates to purchase 12 French Mirage 2000-5 fighters from Qatar
https://www.armyrecognition.com/news/ae ... from-qatar
24 Oct 2024

Price remains a significant sticking point in the negotiations. Qatar is asking for ₹4,160,000,000 (approximately $49,920,000) per aircraft, while the IAF is seeking a price closer to ₹3,000,000,000 (approximately $36,000,000) per aircraft, which would include spare engines and additional MICA air-to-air missiles. Some within the IAF support delaying the purchase to focus on developing the domestically produced Tejas MkII fighter, which offers a projected service life of 40 years and could potentially lower operational costs. However, the Tejas MkII is still under development, and the gap it would leave in the IAF's fighter capability may require interim solutions such as the Mirage 2000-5.

[Kartik]

A two-tier approach needs to be followed;

1) Buy aircraft off the shelf via G2G emergency procurement.

2) Develop your own aircraft from nose to tail.

The GOI will have to loosen the purse strings for this. You cannot sacrifice one for the other either, as both are now vital. The situation is dire and the IAF will hit below 30 squadrons fairly soon, if not already there. There is no point in crowing about being one of the largest economies in the world, if you do not have the power to back that up. Penny pinching is only hurting the country's national security.

See article below. Playing hop, skip and jump with national security. Negotiating over $167 million, when you can increase the firepower capability of a squadron. Yet these are the same folks that have zero issue with spending billions of dollars on 114 foreign aircraft. And will waste the next few years over the MRCA evaluation tamasha. Deeply disappointed with the Modi Govt.

Same story with engine development, signing contract for the second tranche of 97 Tejas Mk1As, releasing funds for TEDBF, etc. Either the Govt just does not care or is beholden to the bureaucratic process. The Govt is in permanent election mode. Hoping one nation, one election sails through and they actually get down to some real governing, especially with national security.

We are not a serious country.

=========================================

Qatari Offer: $49,920,000 x 12 aircraft = $599,040,000 ($599+ million)
India's Offer: $36,000,000 x 12 aircraft = $432,000,000 ($432+ million)

Impasse over $167,040,000 ($167+ million). Does the PMO have to get involved?

Indian Air Force negotiates to purchase 12 French Mirage 2000-5 fighters from Qatar
https://www.armyrecognition.com/news/ae ... from-qatar
24 Oct 2024

Price remains a significant sticking point in the negotiations. Qatar is asking for ₹4,160,000,000 (approximately $49,920,000) per aircraft, while the IAF is seeking a price closer to ₹3,000,000,000 (approximately $36,000,000) per aircraft, which would include spare engines and additional MICA air-to-air missiles. Some within the IAF support delaying the purchase to focus on developing the domestically produced Tejas MkII fighter, which offers a projected service life of 40 years and could potentially lower operational costs. However, the Tejas MkII is still under development, and the gap it would leave in the IAF's fighter capability may require interim solutions such as the Mirage 2000-5.

Sadly everything you're written is true. I am so disappointed with the Modi govt that in 2 consecutive terms where it had such a huge mandate, couldn't address an IAF fighter shortage issue that they inherited from the UPA govt in 2014.

12 Mirage-2000-5s from Qatar would allow the IAF to somewhat offset the 2 Bison squadrons that are set to retire in April 2025, given the Tejas Mk1A engine fiasco has derailed the plans to have one squadron operational by March 2025.

While I too feel that the Qatari asking price is too high, one must consider that they include spare engines, spares stocks and a fairly large stock of MICA IR/EM missiles as well.

And since the Modi Govt has brought the IAF to it's worst ever state in more than 70 years of it's history, they owe it to them to bloody well close the negotiations on this and induct those 12 Mirages as fast as possible.

[Avik]

...close the negotiations on this and induct those 12 Mirages as fast as possible.

Have you considered that perhaps the Qatari offer is linked to France's green signal. The spare parts and sustenance will be provided by French companies. And that the Mirage authorization is actually linked to a bulk order for Rafales.

[maitya]

...
12 Mirage-2000-5s from Qatar would allow the IAF to somewhat offset the 2 Bison squadrons that are set to retire in April 2025, given the Tejas Mk1A engine fiasco has derailed the plans to have one squadron operational by March 2025.

While I too feel that the Qatari asking price is too high, one must consider that they include spare engines, spares stocks and a fairly large stock of MICA IR/EM missiles as well.
...

Absolutely ... right now it's about all hands-on-deck, so dithering on such offers etc, doesn't make any sense at all.

In fact, I'd go a little further and advocate the following:
1) Why not start back-channel talks with Dassault, to negotiate for another sqn of second-hand M2Ks either from it's own inventory (not sure how many are left with sufficient life left - atleast 10 years or 2500-3000hrs) or from the Taiwanese AF* inventory.
(since both operates 2000-5s, closest to 2000I std of IAF)
Ain't be cheap for sure, but what other realistic options (wrt quick sqn numbers shoring up) do we have currently?

2) Since M2Ks are probably the current-inservice medium-weight-category aircraft, that'll get replaced by Mk2 at the very last (thus probably atleast a decade away), I feel there's still scope of further incrementally upgrading them indigenously.
So it makes ample sense to procure these Qatari (and other) platforms, and then go for a fleet-wide upgrade, starting with the oldest sqns first.

Upgrade, albeit a lighter one and fully indigenous, can/should be centered around:
a) the AESA radar (another Uttam variant)
b) a DRFM based internal-ASPJ** (which would thus necessitate indigenous digital RWRs as well)
c) a pair of wing-tip digital MAWS (also maybe SDR, since being added fleet-wide).
(most probably there's not much of real-estate left, to ask for an indigenous-IRST as well)

But, the biggest issue with such an endeavor is, the slooooow rate of implementation/execution by HAL ...
I think, last time M2K were being upgraded (which of course was a much deeper upgrade) the impl rate was like 2-3upgrades/year. Such rates, completely defeats the purpose of any such upgrade-program (another example is the upcoming Super Sukhoi upgrade), especially when we are looking at 10years of residual service-life, at best.

Needless to say, such an upgrade design, if successful, paves way for experimenting with incremental MK1 (and Mk1A later) upgrades as well - somehow, talks of Mk1 units being "upgraded" to Mk1A std, has all but gone completely silent, nowadays.
(and also maybe in the Super Sukhoi program as well - after all, is there some rule that the the twin ASPJ units will have to mandatorily go to the wing-tips only - and not on twin tailfins (top and bottom distn, one on each), like above. And if so, why not experiment for another such light-upgrade for the 29s as well - then, what about the DARIN-IIIs, hain jee?)

===========================================================================================================
* I think (not sure) their fresh F-16C deliveries, have started recently.

** My pet peeve (aka wet dream) has been, that in the indigenous ASPJ program, inability of DRDO/DARE to segregate the ATRU (and VAAU) modules from the bulkier (and heavier LFM*** and the ERP modules.
That way front-and-aft ATRU units can go to top-of-the-Tail-Fin while LFM and ERP modules can be combined in an expanded boxy-bulge at the root of the Tail Fin (a la our-own MK2, F-16, maybe Gripen as well).
Remember the *entire* external ASPJ unit weighs approx 130 odd Kgs (maybe even lower), whilst the collocated digital RWR units adds another 20-25 odd Kgs - segregating it, the combined ATRU and the RWR units would now weigh waaay lesser, making it fit for a top-of-the-Tail-Fin installation candidate, without much of an issue.
Top of the Tail Fin installation should provide minimal platform body-FoV-blocking issue as well, IMVHO.

*** I'm sure there must be a way to segregate the heat exchanger units with the cooling air distributor units in the ATRU modules etc.

Disclaimer: The above doesn't mean we start delaying the integration of the current external ASPJ to MK1As - these R&D can be done in parallel, and be retrofitted later as a part of a quick-upgrade.

[Rakesh]

In fact, I'd go a little further and advocate the following:
1) Why not start back-channel talks with Dassault, to negotiate for another sqn of second-hand M2Ks either from it's own inventory (not sure how many are left with sufficient life left - atleast 10 years or 2500-3000hrs) or from the Taiwanese AF* inventory.
(since both operates 2000-5s, closest to 2000I std of IAF)
Ain't be cheap for sure, but what other realistic options (wrt quick sqn numbers shoring up) do we have currently?

Stay away from the Taiwanese Mirage 2000s. I don't know what they are doing in Taiwan, but their Mirage 2000s have had nothing but issues. One glaring problem is the wings have developed cracks. They also have had severe serviceability issues. Used aircraft from France or UAE would be a better option.

[srai]

Forget about raising new squadron with second hand Mirage-2000s.

Instead, secondhand Mirages should be seen as keeping the existing three squadrons at full strength for another 15-years.

[Manish_P]

Forget about raising new squadron with second hand Mirage-2000s.

Instead, secondhand Mirages should be seen as keeping the existing three squadrons at full strength for another 15-years.

That was my understanding as well. Maybe i am confused in all the never ending drama which is the MRCA.

In any case we need to use the existing birds more carefully now

[Cain Marko]

In fact, I'd go a little further and advocate the following:
1) Why not start back-channel talks with Dassault, to negotiate for another sqn of second-hand M2Ks either from it's own inventory (not sure how many are left with sufficient life left - atleast 10 years or 2500-3000hrs) or from the Taiwanese AF* inventory.
(since both operates 2000-5s, closest to 2000I std of IAF)
Ain't be cheap for sure, but what other realistic options (wrt quick sqn numbers shoring up) do we have currently?

Stay away from the Taiwanese Mirage 2000s. I don't know what they are doing in Taiwan, but their Mirage 2000s have had nothing but issues. One glaring problem is the wings have developed cracks. They also have had severe serviceability issues. Used aircraft from France or UAE would be a better option.

If I was looking to get more mirages, I would look to slides line Greece and UAE. Both these countries had highly advanced versions of the mirage iirc, and in numbers. That might be the best option.

What a mess this is... God forbid a real war starts, India could be in a solid pickle. The PAF has more aew too iirc. Heads should roll for this state of affairs starting with services top brass. Modi is a good tradedman and an excellent politician. But a military strategist he is not. has been very lackluster in this regard.

[Kartik]

...close the negotiations on this and induct those 12 Mirages as fast as possible.

Have you considered that perhaps the Qatari offer is linked to France's green signal. The spare parts and sustenance will be provided by French companies. And that the Mirage authorization is actually linked to a bulk order for Rafales.

Dassault only stands to gain from this. They have no issues whatsoever with re-sale of the Qatari Mirages. Spares are already stocked by the Qataris and for any future needs, IAF will approach Dassault and they'll have to try to find more ex-French Mirages to cannibalise.

So no, there is no way on earth that they'd be foolish enough to try to link sale of 12 Qatari Mirages to any bulk order for Rafales. It'll only vitiate the atmosphere for themselves when they have a deal for 26 Rafale M in the offing and the possibility of a bigger order for the IAF down the line.

[Kartik]

Forget about raising new squadron with second hand Mirage-2000s.

Instead, secondhand Mirages should be seen as keeping the existing three squadrons at full strength for another 15-years.

They will raise a new Mirage squadron from the 12, if they're bought.

The reason is simply because the Qatari Mirages are not exactly similar to the Mirage-2000Is of the IAF. It makes more sense to bunch them together for the sake of training of it's pilots and technicians.

[Rakesh]

Air Marshal Sanjeev Kapoor Explains Why Dassault Rafale was Chosen

[Avik]

Spares are already stocked by the Qataris and for any future needs, IAF will approach Dassault and they'll have to try to find more ex-French Mirages to cannibalise.

Kartik - Airframe spares are held by the user. Systems spares and consumables are provided by the manufacturer since these are shelf life limited and need new batches and refresh. Software upgrades for the FCS are also provided by the OEM. No military or user 'stocks' these. So, Dassault's assent is critical

that they'd be foolish enough to try to link sale of 12 Qatari Mirages to any bulk order for Rafales. It'll only vitiate the atmosphere for themselves when they have a deal for 26 Rafale M in the offing

The IAF's M 2000 upgrade negotiation was happening in the midst of the MMRCA campaign. That took its own time, and was expensive. If Dassault, in the midst of the MMRCA campaign held the line on the M 2000 upgrade, why would it give in on the QAF M 2000s now, when it knows that the Rafale is the only option for the IN

[Rakesh]

Kartik - Airframe spares are held by the user. Systems spares and consumables are provided by the manufacturer since these are shelf life limited and need new batches and refresh. Software upgrades for the FCS are also provided by the OEM. No military or user 'stocks' these. So, Dassault's assent is critical

There are a number of retired Mirage 2000 airframe spares in the IAF's inventory. They are being used to keep the current three squadrons afloat. They were acquired in the past decade from ex-French air force stocks. A new batch of airframe spares is under negotiation from Greece. However, I have not seen any media update on that acquisition since the first announcement. However, that too will come as the IAF has a retirement date for the Mirage 2000 only in the 2030s and therefore Air HQ will acquire as many Christmas trees they can get their hands on.

With regards to the system spares and consumables, Dassault announced in Sept 2024 of setting up DAMROI (Dassault Aviation MRO India). Here is the link to Dassault's media press release for that venture ---> https://www.dassault-aviation.com/en/gr ... ctivities/

DAMROI has been specifically designed to cater for the IAF's Mirage 2000 fleet. It will subsequently transition to support the IAF's and IN's fleet of Rafales and any additional Rafales that India acquires for the IAF or the IN. It will also serve as a MRO hub for international Rafale operators in the region i.e. Indonesia, UAE, etc. DAMROI will also play a key role for the French Air Force and the French Navy when they visit India (or operate in the region).

@ Tarang Shakti 2024...one of the French Air Force's Rafales suffered a technical snag in India and spares were acquired from the IAF's stocks to make that aircraft serviceable again. There will be more of this in the future, but with set agreements in place for sharing of spares, tools, etc.

The IAF's M 2000 upgrade negotiation was happening in the midst of the MMRCA campaign. That took its own time, and was expensive. If Dassault, in the midst of the MMRCA campaign held the line on the M 2000 upgrade, why would it give in on the QAF M 2000s now, when it knows that the Rafale is the only option for the IN

It was in Dassault's interest that the Mirage 2000 upgrade contract would sail through during the MMRCA 1.0 evaluation. If negotiations failed over that contract, they would have kissed goodbye to the MMRCA 1.0 contract. The deal for upgrading India's Mirage 2000s was signed in 2011 during the tenure of Air Chief Marshal PV Naik. India's then Ambassador to France - Arun Kumar Singh - was the chief guest for the event* of the first pair that was upgraded in France. The L1 winner - Dassault - of the MMRCA was announced by the MoD on 31 January 2012 and a contract was signed only in Sept 2016.

*When Ambassador Singh's car arrived at the event at Dassault's facility, he was greeted by Eric Trappier, CEO of Dassault. After the usual pleasantries, the CEO requested the Ambassador to turn his gaze towards a French Air Force Rafale that was nonchalantly parked outside a hangar. Basically signaling to the Ambassador, that this is the aircraft currently being negotiated as the "next" Indian Air Force fighter. And inside the hangar, lies the first pair of upgraded Mirage 2000s for the Indian Air Force. So Continuity.

It makes ample business sense for Dassault to let the sale of the Qatari Mirage 2000s sail through. Any future spares to support this Qatari fleet will come from the DAMROI facility, but will be a money maker for Dassault. They are not going to turn down any opportunity to generate revenue. Dassault is well aware - that despite the possible induction of the Qatari Mirages - the MRFA contest will still live on and that they are still leading in the contest. @ 114 aircraft or even a reduced number will result in Dassault making a significant profit.

And in the unfortunate event that they lose the contest, they will still generate revenue from DAMROI. It is a win-win situation for Dassault.

P.S. The more that the IAF and the IN invests in Dassault's wares, proportionally that much more revenue Dassault will earn.

[srai]

Forget about raising new squadron with second hand Mirage-2000s.

Instead, secondhand Mirages should be seen as keeping the existing three squadrons at full strength for another 15-years.

They will raise a new Mirage squadron from the 12, if they're bought.

The reason is simply because the Qatari Mirages are not exactly similar to the Mirage-2000Is of the IAF. It makes more sense to bunch them together for the sake of training of it's pilots and technicians.

Not necessarily. AFIK, One of the three existing Mirage-2000 squadrons was always under strength. And the airframes IAF have are really old.

[Kartik]

In fact, I'd go a little further and advocate the following:
1) Why not start back-channel talks with Dassault, to negotiate for another sqn of second-hand M2Ks either from it's own inventory (not sure how many are left with sufficient life left - atleast 10 years or 2500-3000hrs) or from the Taiwanese AF* inventory.
(since both operates 2000-5s, closest to 2000I std of IAF)
Ain't be cheap for sure, but what other realistic options (wrt quick sqn numbers shoring up) do we have currently?

Stay away from the Taiwanese Mirage 2000s. I don't know what they are doing in Taiwan, but their Mirage 2000s have had nothing but issues. One glaring problem is the wings have developed cracks. They also have had severe serviceability issues. Used aircraft from France or UAE would be a better option.

I don't think they're available anyway as of anytime soon. The Taiwanese certainly aren't parting with them given their F-16V fleet is still not fully built up and their Ching Kuo IDF fighters are also getting long in the tooth.

The easiest option as of now is to approach the Greeks for their Mirage-2000-5s. There were already reports of the Greeks approaching the IAF for their older Mirage-2000 EGM/BGMs but they also have a squadron of the more modern Mirage-2000-5s that the IAF could put into service almost immediately.

Given the great ties between India and the UAE, the UAE's Mirage-2000 fleet should be a target for the IAF. But then, this govt. is so slow on all acquisitions that involve imports and the IAF, that I wouldn't expect them to do anything.

[Kartik]

They will raise a new Mirage squadron from the 12, if they're bought.

The reason is simply because the Qatari Mirages are not exactly similar to the Mirage-2000Is of the IAF. It makes more sense to bunch them together for the sake of training of it's pilots and technicians.

Not necessarily. AFIK, One of the three existing Mirage-2000 squadrons was always under strength. And the airframes IAF have are really old.

Under strength yes, No.9 Wolfpacks don't have a complement of 18 fighters. But that is not very uncommon actually. And as the Qatari Mirages are of a different spec from the -I upgrade, they'll almost certainly be raised as part of a separate squadron, if acquired.

[srai]

^^^
IMO, there won’t be a 4th squadron; rather two squadrons will assimilate the under strength 3rd squadron and that 3rd squadron will inherit the new second hands. There might be some upgrades after they are bought for standardization.

However, if the IAF can get UAE Mirages then yes new squadrons likely.