Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

[A_Gupta]

What I hear is a slow down in consumer spending; complaints of declining sales from the FMCG (Fast Moving Consumer Goods) companies.

[Vayutuvan]

^ Anecdotal?!

[Suraj]

I've already posted about how UPI data showed a slowdown in Q2 but how it's since accelerated in Q3 due to the extremely strong performance in October:
Update on UPI statistics from Oct 2024
November is decidedly slower than October which benefited from all the festival spending being compressed into it and not spread between Oct+Nov this year. But Q3 will likely be much stronger.

I also track PMI data - services, mfg and composite - and they don't show much of a signal of slowdown.

As I posted in the review of the GDP data, PFCE data does NOT show a drop. In fact PFCE grew more YoY than GDP did, so the drop in the latter came from other sources as I mentioned earlier.

[A_Gupta]

Is inequality increasing in India? To tax India’s super-rich or not? Thomas Piketty versus Indian govt economists
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zLEVINLmE0M

I recommend the above seminar for several reasons, including

a. It tells you how standards of living are getting better for Indians.

b. Various independent arguments show that inequality is decreasing.

c. Very important to me, where in my experience Indians used to mouth the usual European or American economic orthodoxy, now they are thinking for themselves and are evidence- and data-driven -- and are not in the periphery but are in the positions of influence in India. As long as the current dispensation remains, India will not shackle itself to western economic orthodoxy, but will find its own way.

[chetak]

Minhaz Merchant@MinhazMerchant

FM Chidambaram & RBI guv RRR had nearly destroyed Indian banking by 2014 with humongous NPAs following “phone banking” loans given to cronies in UPA1 & UPA2. It’s taken years to restore Indian banks to good health today.

@RahulGandhi⁩ knows this but persists in lying in LS.

[chetak]

Is inequality increasing in India? To tax India’s super-rich or not? Thomas Piketty versus Indian govt economists
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zLEVINLmE0M

I recommend the above seminar for several reasons, including

a. It tells you how standards of living are getting better for Indians.

b. Various independent arguments show that inequality is decreasing.

c. Very important to me, where in my experience Indians used to mouth the usual European or American economic orthodoxy, now they are thinking for themselves and are evidence- and data-driven -- and are not in the periphery but are in the positions of influence in India. As long as the current dispensation remains, India will not shackle itself to western economic orthodoxy, but will find its own way.

A_Gupta ji,


Its difficult to agree with this cheese eating fellow's ideas.


taxing an Indian billionaire is taxing India and billionaires in other countries like India which is what all the goras want, no matter how innocuously piketty dresses it up. They simply don't want to pay for what they have done and the damage that they have caused over the past many tens of decades, starting from the industrial revolution


It is the goras who are historically and also currently responsible for the bulk of the pollution. Let them pay

[A_Gupta]

A better link is this - it includes the time from hours 1:30 to 2:30 which has the questions and answer session, in which the Indian economists really take Piketty to task for having unworkable ideas. If you have watched the first video to the end, start this one from about 1:30 for the Q&A.

This is also a master class in how to disagree agreeably.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E4asEEe5mVI

[A_Gupta]

@Chetak,
You will enjoy the Q&A of the seminar.

[drnayar]

https://indianexpress.com/article/busin ... p-9542291/

“The saturation in Bangladesh began some time ago, but orders had not been moving to India. Most of them are going to Cambodia, Vietnam, and Indonesia. India has a lot of opportunities, but our product mix is not changing, and the benefits are not arriving,” the executive said on condition of anonymity.

[A_Gupta]

e.g, this: Financial Express, October 23, 2024:
Shrinking middle class hitting FMCG firms: Nestle India
https://www.financialexpress.com/busine ... %20Tuesday.

[uddu]

e.g, this: Financial Express, October 23, 2024:
Shrinking middle class hitting FMCG firms: Nestle India
https://www.financialexpress.com/busine ... %20Tuesday.

Old legacy companies are facing tough competion from new players and people are more health concious compared to the older times. Younger generation is also very concious in avoiding sugary content. One young chap even shocked me and told me Coke is for toilet cleaning when it was offered to him.

[drnayar]

India – Resurgence of the Golden Bird

[A_Gupta]

Gautam Singhania of Raymond says that while Trump will do some damage to India, he will do a lot more damage to China, and that will improve India's competitive situation.

He also says that while the cost to the importer of textiles/garments is a bit more in India than in Bangladesh, now India is in a position because of vertical integration to cut 10-15 days off in the delivery time, and that makes up for the extra cost. Further he says, once the supply chain has shifted to India, Bangladesh will find it very difficult to shift back.

https://youtu.be/pX73g1Cz33I?si=RXjFqMstUFweyPU7

[Deans]

I blog on the Ukraine war and the feedback I often get when discussing it in forums is that India is siding with Russia, or financing Putin by buying Russian oil. My latest blog post looks at oil trade data and argues that India's actions are in the best interest of all oil importers. There are more egregious instances of sanctions busting and better ways to reduce Russia's energy export revenues without harming importers.

https://rpdeans.blogspot.com/2024/12/in ... ality.html

For those who haven't read my blog - I blog on Indian national security, current wars and startups, with original data based analysis.
My blog is free and non commercial. I am retired and independent. I write to educate myself on subjects of interest to me and not covered
adequately in the mainstream media and generate a fact based discussion in the process.

[Cyrano]

Thanks Deans ji.

If the economics of this oil trade are as you describe (I think you are indeed quite right) then how did our oil companies make some windfall profits and the GoI was taxing them separately until very recently?!

Is there a possibility that all the numbers are not in public domain?

The fact that India continued to buy Russian oil despite immense pressure by NATO countries has made it possible for many smaller countries to do the same and thus de-legitimized the sanctions.

[VinodTK]

Microsoft’s Nadella Pledges $3 Billion India AI Investment

Microsoft Corp. plans to spend $3 billion to expand its cloud computing and artificial intelligence capabilities in India, targeting the world’s most populous country to fuel its revenue growth.

Chief Executive Officer Satya Nadella pledged the investment over two years on Tuesday at an event in Bangalore, southern India, addressing a crowd of startup founders and executives from tech firms such as Wipro Ltd. and Cognizant Technology Solutions Corp.

The country of 1.4 billion people is emerging as an AI battlefront, with CEOs from Nvidia Corp.’s Jensen Huang to Advanced Micro Devices Inc.’s Lisa Su visiting in the past months. India, with millions of programmers and home to technology services providers such as Tata Consultancy Services Ltd. and Infosys Ltd., holds one of the world’s largest AI talent pools.

“The diffusion rate of AI in India is exciting,” Nadella said.

On Monday, Nadella posted a photo online from his meeting with India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi. “Excited to build on our commitment to making India AI-first,” he said on X. The prime minister responded, saying he is “glad to know about Microsoft’s ambitious expansion and investment plans in India.”


Under Nadella’s stewardship, Redmond, Washington-based Microsoft has been driving to commercialize AI. Last week, the company announced plans to invest $80 billion in building data centers, which provide critical infrastructure for businesses to deploy AI systems and tools.

The tech giant has already made major investments in India — Nadella’s native country — employing more than 23,000 people in cities including the technology hubs of Bangalore and Hyderabad. The CEO said Tuesday Microsoft is committed to giving AI training to 10 million people in the country by 2030.

[A_Gupta]

The Gross State Domestic Product of Uttar Pradesh is about INR 25 lakh crores in 2024. It needs to more than triple for the UP to become a USD 1 trillion economy. Does anyone have growth projections for the state?

[JTull]

The Gross State Domestic Product of Uttar Pradesh is about INR 25 lakh crores in 2024. It needs to more than triple for the UP to become a USD 1 trillion economy. Does anyone have growth projections for the state?

https://www.ibef.org/states/uttar-pradesh-presentation
https://invest.up.gov.in/

[A_Gupta]

Thanks, @JTull!

The first page says:

The state government also passed Uttar Pradesh Startup Policy, 2020. The objective of the policy is to be among the top-3 states in Start Up ranking, establish/support minimum of one incubator in each district of the state, and create an ecosystem for at least 10,000 startups in the state.

The second page says:

13370+ Startups are recognized by DPIIT

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/cit ... 199340.cms#

UP has emerged as the top state in implementation of the Amrit Sarovar project, having completed 80% of its target.

[JTull]

An interesting number that I've started tracking is the monthly amount being invested in MFs through the SIP route

Dec '24: ₹ 26,459 crore
Nov '24: ₹ 25,320 crore
Oct '24: ₹ 25,323 crore
Sep '24: ₹ 24,509 crore
Aug '24: ₹ 23,547 crore
Jul '24: ₹ 23,332 crore
Jun '24: ₹ 21,262 crore
May '24: ₹ 20,904 crore
Apr '24: ₹ 20,371 crore
Mar '24: ₹ 19,271 crore
Feb '24: ₹ 19,187 crore
Jan '24: ₹ 18,838 crore

Dec '23: ₹ 17,610 crore
Dec '22: ₹ 13,573 crore
Dec '21: ₹ 11,305 crore
Dec '20: ₹ 8,418 crore
Dec '19: ₹ 8,518 crore
Dec '18: ₹ 8,022 crore
Dec '17: ₹ 6,222 crore
Dec '16: ₹ 3,973 crore