williams wrote: ↑11 May 2025 02:42
India and Pakistan have today worked out an understanding on stoppage of firing and military action.
India has consistently maintained a firm and uncompromising stance against terrorism in all its forms and manifestations. It will continue to do so.
- Dr Jaishankar EAM
"Stoppage of firing and military action" - interesting not cease fire? Am I over analyzing?
Stoppage of firing and military action does not rule out stoppage of water and other non-kinetic means of tightening the screws on Pakistan to achieve results.
- By not pulling back troops, Pakistan will need to have their forces on eternal alert and deployed. This will increase their spend.
- There could be internal strife between the jihadis and the uniformed jihadis, as the later will have to deal with the prospect of full scale kinetic action if the former indulges in Pakistan's leading passtime.
- Likely to have more infighting in the army and government. There will be Munir loyalists and other jernail aspirants to be the next Khalifa. On the political front, the Shariffs vs. Imran Khan factions. This needs to be actively stoked.
- The awam (including the bluster wonders) for the first time have faced the real music of the Indian armed forces. In 1971, the hinterland of Pakistan did not see that much visible action. Most of it was around the border, LOC and Karachi. Also, current generation has never seen any action. This will weigh psychologically on them.
- With cessation of trade with India, food supplies, medicines etc. will become scarce leading to social anarchy.
- Need to replenish those drones, ADS, missiles, aircraft, damaged infrastructure etc.
- Balochistan on the boil. Just the presence of a few Indian Naval ships in the Arabian coast will give them enough acidity.
- Sindh also might start to boil, if the Pak fauj faces a rout in Balochistan.
- The jihadis licking their wounds and foaming at the mouth will be living under the shadow of an unexpected drone or unknown gunman visit. They know that they cannot be safe deep inside Pakistan.