Israel-Hezbollah-Iran War

[Vayutuvan]

What will surprise them is the chaotic decisionmaking and aftermath, laid bare by Trump himself. The president’s zig-zagging and maximalist posts on Truth Social in the run-up to the attack, his public rejection of intelligence estimates, his insistence that the strikes “obliterated” Fordow before battle damage assessments were in, his attacks on the media for asking questions about the details of the aftermath and the fate of the nuclear program, and his lack of any clear plan for diplomatic action after the strikes, will all get attention in foreign capitals.

From:
The global implications of the US strikes on Iran
https://www.brookings.edu/articles/the- ... s-on-iran/

Very strange that Brookings says this. Trump and administration clearly stated that the offer to Iran to completely forswear any nuclear weapon ambitions, they are welcome to have nuclear power. This was said openly right after the strikes.

[pravula]

Because they can and its relatively inexpensive for them. What else would their "agents" do?

@pravula, @Leonard's post is a correct analysis of the worn of gramophone record being played here by some folks who are ignoring externalities to JCPOA. JCPOA doesn't live in a vacuum. IAEA's role should be taken in larger context of Israel's right to exist, Iran being shia. Sunnis have bum, Jews have abum, Hindus have a bum. Commies ofc. Iran has to get one. It is sort of civilizational for them.

I don't understand some people trying to argue that Iran getting a bomb (JCPOA or not, they are intent on getting one) is in Indian interest. It is very strange. Probably a case of cutting off the nose (unending diplomacy, giving pallets of cash) to spite the face (Trump and the conservatives).

Actually, I was saying that Israel will hit irrespective of how close Iran is (days or weeks or months dont matter). They will not wait till it becomes a high risk problem. They like nipping things in the bud (look at other reactor strikes). In that sense, we are both saying the same thing...

[A_Gupta]

1. https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/ne ... s?from=mdr
June 23, 2025

Israel conducted on Monday a high-profile airstrike on Tehran, targeting not only military and intelligence assets but also one of the most potent ideological symbols of the Islamic Republic -- the digital countdown clock in Palestine Square. Installed in 2017, the clock was based on Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s ominous 2015 prophecy that Israel “will not exist in 25 years.” Its destruction carries enormous symbolic weight, not only erasing a defiant message embedded in Tehran’s skyline but also.... ..For Iran’s hardliners, the clock functioned as a perpetual reminder of their ideological mission -- the eventual eradication of Israel.

2. https://www.timesofisrael.com/israel-wa ... ed-itself/

The Iranian regime was increasingly convinced in recent months that it would soon be able to destroy Israel. The “Destruction of Israel” clock in Tehran’s Palestine Square was not an exercise in bravado. It was a public countdown to what the ayatollahs believed was Israel’s imminent demise, at their hands. Along with dismay that Yahya Sinwar had failed to consult and coordinate with them before invading southern Israel on October 7, 2023, the regime drew encouragement from the success of that massacre, its apparent confirmation of Israel’s vulnerability, and the ongoing instability it had caused.

Israel’s elimination, the regime delightedly, and rationally, assessed, was truly at hand.

And the fact is, apocalyptic as this certainly sounds, the assessment was reasonable.

That is the sober, honest judgment of the military and security chiefs who told Israel’s political leaders in recent months that Israel had to go to war against Iran, preferably in June and certainly not much later. That the end of 2025 would be too late. That it was now or never. That Iran was a decision and a few weeks away from nuclear weapons. And that the regime’s fast-growing ballistic missile capability was rapidly becoming an existential threat as well.

The political leadership listened. It was persuaded. It coordinated with the US administration.

And Israel indeed went to war. And saved itself.

[A_Gupta]

2. continued

In the aftermath of October 7, the Iranian regime accelerated its clandestine nuclear weapons program. It accelerated its ballistic missile production. It bolstered its air defenses. It directly attacked Israel for the first time, in April 2024, and fired another huge missile barrage in October.

...
...
Then came the fall of the Assad regime in Syria, and a rapid Israeli military response that prevented major military assets from falling into the hands of the new rebel regime and ensured that Israel held air supremacy there.

The regime in Tehran responded by further accelerating its efforts to attain the bomb. It expanded its stockpiles of 60% enriched uranium. It made significant progress on weaponization. Its key scientists were conducting tests and simulations that underlined how close they were to completing the program. In breach of international treaties, in breach of an ostensible fatwa against nuclear weapons, those scientists were working to enable a rapid breakout to the bomb.

...
As National Security Adviser Tzachi Hanegbi has stated, the regime believed that its long-planned “Destruction of Israel” project via a multifront invasion, carried out amid a devastating missile and drone attack, was viable.

...
Watching Iran with a far greater degree of intelligence penetration than the regime had realized, Israel’s military and security planners had in February 2025 received the green light from the political echelon to preempt.

...
The top-level nuclear scientists are gone, and not easily replaceable. Natanz is believed destroyed, along with its centrifuges. Isfahan — possibly the only Iranian facility capable of converting uranium into the necessary form for enrichment, and of converting enriched uranium into solid metal form en route to a warhead — is likely destroyed. Fordo, where the UN’s International Atomic Energy Agency had in 2023 reported evidence of enrichment to 83.7% — just short of weapons grade — is not operational, thanks in overwhelming part to the US bombing.

Iran’s ballistic missile program is greatly degraded. It is believed to still have some 700-1,000 missiles and fewer than 200 of its original 400 launchers. But the IDF targeted not only missiles and launchers, but the tunnels from which they emerge to fire, and the factories that make them and their components. Indeed, the IDF targeted innumerable elements of Iran’s entire military manufacturing array.

There is, however, absolutely no room or reason for hubris. Israel allowed itself to slip into existential peril, and the astounding success of the 12-day war is a temporary accomplishment.

Iran is not going anywhere. And so long as the ayatollahs retain power, they can be relied upon to recommit to their efforts to wipe out Israel. As former prime minister Naftali Bennett remarked in a Saturday night interview, “it’s clear that they will now start to renew” the nuclear program. “The key is to prevent them from doing that, too.”

Along with delight and profound relief at the achievements of the war, the military and security top brass are resolved not to underestimate the regime and its single-minded determination to destroy Israel. This was a knockout blow in a life-or-death fight. But it is not the end of the existential struggle.

Even this time, despite those stunning initial strikes, Iran did gradually recover its balance.

The military and political leadership agreed ahead of time to set achievable goals for the war — which were defined as “Creating conditions to prevent Iran’s nuclearization over time, and improving Israel’s strategic balance.” Twelve days in, the IDF reported that those goals had been attained, and that Israel’s position would weaken, and Iran’s strengthen, if the war continued.

[A_Gupta]

contnued:

And yet, it is more than possible that Iran spirited away some, maybe even most, of its 60% enriched uranium far from the major sites targeted in this war, and plenty of centrifuges too. Iran is about 75 times larger than Israel — plenty of room to construct smaller nuclear sites, and enrich and weaponize there, while trying to avoid attention. New scientists will replace the departed. It is not impossible that Pakistan or North Korea could be tempted to try to provide Iran with nuclear weapons.

Fresh, quite possibly more radical, leaders will replace the old for so long as the regime can retain power. And that regime, humiliated over 12 days in June, may be more motivated than ever to either scramble for the bomb or, more akin to its approach thus far, to lick its wounds and patiently rebuild the entire program.

On Saturday, IAEA chief Rafael Grossi predicted that Iran could resume uranium enrichment “in a matter of months.” Israel expects the regime to try to start resurrecting its program far more quickly than that.

[A_Gupta]

continued:

Israel has had a narrow escape.

It was only in a position to save itself, moreover, because Yahya Sinwar, fearing leaks, chose not to coordinate Hamas’s October 7, 2023, with Iran and its other proxies, incorrectly gauging that the rest of the axis would pile in when recognizing his “success,” and join the triumphal, Israel-eliminating march to Al-Aqsa. (Israel is not certain, to this day, why Iran held back.)

{Netanyahu} also asserted ... that Israel had sent the Iranian nuclear program “down the drain” — assessments that the security establishment would not, should not, dare not, complacently endorse.

[Vayutuvan]

They like nipping things in the bud (look at other reactor strikes). In that sense, we are both saying the same thing...

Correct again. I am pointing out to you about others in this thread who are arguing for Iran to have nuclear power. They have more than enough O&NG reserves and the technology to extract and export. They would earn good money to make the lives of their citizens better. They will not sleep till they get the nukes and they lie that they are pursuing nuclear power rather than nukes. The whole thing is so transparent that anybody with a modicum of common sense can see through but for those who are beholden to IAEA and their own technical knowledge in one narrow area. Nuclear Engg/Physics experts get a lot of attention whenever there is a conflict involving nuclear/near nuclear powers. They come out of the woodwork at those times - like now - to say that they haven't wasted their lifetime studying a subject that has not much relevance nor are there any fundamental discoveries to be had. Only technological developments that too if they can solve nuclear waste problem.

[Haresh]

Only an October 7th-style attack in the West would wake the Glastonbury pro-Hamas mob up to threat Israel faces, says Doulgas Murray

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... dcast.html

[Ambar]

Only an October 7th-style attack in the West would wake the Glastonbury pro-Hamas mob up to threat Israel faces, says Doulgas Murray

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... dcast.html

He is delusional if he thinks it will change anything! We had the Madrid bombing, 7/7 bombing in London, 2015 Paris attack,Brussels bombings, Nice truck massacre, Manchester bombings..a month does not pass without a jihadi knife attack in France, Germany, Sweden or UK, but yet millions of Europeans will hit the streets in solidarity with Palestine but not in solidarity with their own citizens who are victims of islamic terror. Europe is staring at a civil war like situation in another 20-30 yrs, but they refuse to wake up. Australia and Canada are not too far behind and once the baby boomers are all gone and Gen X ages past 60, US too will follow down the same path.

Bob Vylan and the vile Glastonbury mob are just symptoms of a deep disease ailing the west.

[ritesh]

Alive and talking malsi never looses while dead don't talk

Reminds me of the Chase novel "Dead Stay Dumb".

These two episode has showed to the world, that mard-e-momeen is a loud motormouth and also living in their make believe world. No amount of persuasion is going to change their perspective of the world which is rooted in their asamani kitab. So, to get rid of their claims... Drastic things are needed.