Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

[rahulm]

Rahulm, I worked in Goa decades ago. Then it was beautiful and VERY CLEAN. But not anymore.

SInce 10 years, I have just cause to go to Goa every year. Its depressing - what it could have been - a model - a showcase state in governance, cleanliness, law and order, politeness etc (all the things that make life pleasant) and what it has become. The taxi mafia, the land mafia and worse (not posting here). Today even piped water is an issue. Rationed out in similar frequency to godforsaken Wardha and Wani in MH ( I know - I go to Goa and VIdharbha every year coz Pune has become an insufferable city for me).

And in Goa there is no didi or pappu to blame. It's been a bhajpa bastion more or less for a very long time.

[A_Gupta]

What is the progress of the eCourts Project,the JustIS app for judges, National Judicial Data Grid (NJDG), digital case records (DSCR)?

[williams]

Defence Budget 2026: Govt lifts defence spending to 11% of GDP, outlay jumps 21% to ₹5.95 lakh crore
https://www.cnbctv18.com/budget/defence ... 836777.htm
In the Budget 2026 presented on February 1, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman raised India’s defence allocation, with higher spending expected on capital equipment, modernisation and domestic manufacturing.

India stepped up its defence spending in the Union Budget 2026, with Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman announcing an outlay of ₹5.95 lakh crore on February 1, up 21% from last year’s Budgeted ₹4.92 lakh crore allocation. The increase includes a 21% rise in overall defence capital expenditure, underlining the government’s emphasis on long-term capability building. As a result, defence spending has risen to 11% of GDP in FY26, from around 8% in the previous year.

11% of GDP? this cant be right...

Rough calculation is 5.95 lakh crore is 80 billion dollars out of 4400 billion dollar GDP. Should be around 1.8% of GDP. I will be very happy if they spend that much.

Here is the official allocation percentage: I am not sure where the 11% came from.

Defence: 14.68% (highest allocation, ~20% increase)
States' Share of Taxes & Duties: 22%
Interest Payments: 20%
Central Sector Schemes: 17%
Centrally Sponsored Schemes: 7%
Finance Commission/Other Transfers: 8%
Pensions: 2%
Other Expenditures: 7%

[A_Gupta]

Defense outlay is 7.85 lakh crores. Not 5.95.
India's nominal GDP (GDP at current prices) for the fiscal year 2024-25 is estimated to be approximately ₹330.68 lakh crore (or ₹330.7 trillion), according to projections. For the following fiscal year 2025-26, nominal GDP is estimated to reach ₹357.14 lakh crore.

So the defense outlay is 2.37% or 2.198% of GDP.

[g.sarkar]

https://sundayguardianlive.com/business ... on-167527/
India’s forex Reserves hit $709.4 billion
CORRESPONDENT, February 1, 2026
NEW DELHI: India’s foreign exchange reserves reached a new all-time high in the week ended January 23, according to the Reserve Bank of India’s latest data.
Foreign exchange reserves rose sharply by USD 8.053 billion in the week to USD 709.433 billion, driven by a jump in both gold reserves and foreign currency assets.
Over the past few weeks, the forex kitty has been largely in an uptrend. Its previous high was USD 704.89 billion, touched in September 2024.
For the reported week (that ended January 23), India’s foreign currency assets (FCA), the largest component of foreign exchange reserves, stood at USD 562.885 billion, up USD 2.367 billion.
The RBI data showed that gold reserves currently stand at USD 123.088 billion, up USD 5.635 billion from the previous week.
After the latest monetary policy review meeting in early December, the RBI had said that the country’s foreign exchange reserves were sufficient to cover more than 11 months of merchandise imports.
Overall, India’s external sector remains resilient, and the RBI is confident it can comfortably meet external financing requirements.
In 2025, the forex kitty has increased by about 56 billion, according to data. In 2024, reserves rose by just over USD 20 billion. In 2023, India added around USD 50 billion to its foreign exchange reserves, contrasting with a cumulative decline of USD 71 billion in 2022.
......
Gautam

[chetak]

This issue was raked up needlessly

Piddi Argument—'Trump said Agriculture in his post. .@narendramodi is lying'

What Piddis don't know

US Agricultural Products were being Imported by Bharat SINCE BEFORE Feb 2026 #TradeDeal & WILL CONTINUE After:

-Tree Nuts (primarily almonds and pistachios; also walnuts & pecans)
-Fruits (apples, cranberries, blueberries, cherries, pears & processed fruits like prunes or dried cranberries)
-Vegetables (various fresh and processed)
-Pulses (chickpeas/garbanzo beans, lentils, yellow peas)
-Cotton
-Soybean Oil
-Ethanol (for non-fuel industrial purposes)
-Wine & Spirits

US Agricultural Products Which Bharat WILL NOT ALLOW Even After Feb 2026 Trade Deal:

-Dairy Products
-Poultry
-Genetically Modified (GM) Products (such as GM soy or corn)
-Soybeans (whole grain)
-Corn (maize)
-Rice
-Wheat
-Sugar
-Beef
-Ethanol for Fuel Blending

NOTE- Pulses, Soybean Oil & Cotton are imported depending upon shortfall of production in Bharat to bridge demand-supply gap. Also... Bharatiya Farmers are protected with MSP in case of fall of prices due to any reasons.

AB SAMZA TRUMP KYA AUR KYON BOLA?

If Yes—your doubts are solved.
If Not—your Piddi status remains same.

[A_Gupta]

https://tradingeconomics.com/india/calendar

Code: Select all

Wednesday February 04 2026	Actual	Previous	Consensus	Forecast		
HSBC Composite PMI Final JAN	58.4	57.8		59.5		
HSBC Services PMI Final JAN	58.5	58.0		59.4		59.3	

[A_Gupta]

Jan GST numbers were not posted, I think.

India’s goods and services tax (GST) revenue reached Rs 1,93,384 crore in January 2026, up 6.2 per cent from Rs 1,82,094 crore in the same month last year.

https://www.firstpost.com/india/indias- ... 74723.html

[drnayar]

Will indian companies take the initiative

"ASML, the Dutch company with an ABSOLUTE MONOPOLY on extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machines, just announced plans to fire 1700 employees.
Let that sink in.

The ONLY company in the world that makes the machines required to manufacture advanced semiconductor chips is letting go of 1700 people who literally know how to build the most sophisticated technology on the planet.

This is not just a hiring opportunity. This is a semiconductor heist waiting to happen.

If you watched Think School’s latest video on Chip Wars, you know ASML is untouchable. TSMC, Intel, Samsung—everyone bows down to them because nobody else can make EUV machines.

These machines cost $150-200 million EACH and take years to build. The technology is so complex that even China, with all its resources, couldn’t replicate it.

And now 1700 people with this exact knowledge are potentially available.

Here’s what smart money would do:
Hire them. Not 10 or 20. Hire 500+ of them.
Offer them 2x salaries. Give them equity. Build a world-class R&D facility in India or partner with existing semiconductor initiatives."

https://x.com/parsh_kothari/status/2021854430321422514

Quite likely the chinese will poach them wholesale

[A_Gupta]

FIRST PRESS RELEASE OF CONSUMER PRICE INDEX ON BASE 2024=100
https://www.pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage ... g=3&lang=1

What’s New

Base revised from 2012 to 2024 using Household Consumption Expenditure Survey 2023-24

12 Divisions in place of 6 Groups in accordance to Classification of Individual Consumption According to Purpose (COICOP) 2018

Release of All India and State level Item indices for rural, urban and combined sectors

New Additions: Rural housing, Online media service provider/Streaming services, value added dairy products, Barley & its product, Pen-drive & External Hard disk, Attendant, Babysitter and Exercise equipment

Items Removed: VCR/VCD/DVD player and hiring charges, Radio, Tape recorder, Clothing second-hand, CD/DVD audio/video cassettes and Coir/rope

- Year-on-year inflation rate based on All India Consumer Price Index (CPI) with base year 2024 for the month of January, 2026 over January, 2025 is 2.75%(Provisional). Corresponding inflation rates for rural and urban are 2.73% and 2.77%, respectively.

- Food Inflation: - Year-on-year inflation rate based on All India Consumer Food Price Index (CFPI) for the month of January, 2026 over January, 2025 is 2.13% (Provisional). Corresponding inflation rates for rural and urban are 1.96% and 2.44%, respectively.

- Housing Inflation: - Year-on-year Housing inflation rate for the month of January, 2026 is 2.05% (Provisional)and the corresponding inflation rates for rural and urban are 2.39% and 1.92%, respectively.

[A_Gupta]

Month-over-Month change in General CPI during 2025 with 2012 as base year vis-à-vis with 2024 as base year

[KL Dubey]

Will indian companies take the initiative

"ASML, the Dutch company with an ABSOLUTE MONOPOLY on extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machines, just announced plans to fire 1700 employees.
Let that sink in.

The ONLY company in the world that makes the machines required to manufacture advanced semiconductor chips is letting go of 1700 people who literally know how to build the most sophisticated technology on the planet.

That doesn't seem correct. I doubt they would be so foolish. It looks like exactly the opposite has happened:

ASML fired or re-oriented 3000+ management/non-technical staff and are doubling down on technical/engineering talent. Specifically, 1700 managers without tech background were fired, and 1400 managers with technical background are being put back into engineering roles.

From Google AI:

Key Details of the Restructuring
Target Roles: The layoffs primarily impact management and leadership layers rather than frontline engineering staff. Specifically, about 3,000 management posts are being eliminated or changed, with roughly 1,400 of those individuals expected to transition back into technical or engineering roles.
Geographic Impact: Most reductions occur in the Netherlands (approx. 1,200 roles), with the remainder (approx. 500 roles) affecting operations in the United States.
Strategic Goal: CEO Christophe Fouquet stated the goal is to make the company "more agile" and ensure "engineers can be engineers again" by removing excessive coordination and consultation processes.
Investment Shift: While cutting leadership roles, ASML intends to create new engineering positions to focus on innovation and next-generation technology.

[A_Gupta]

Uttar Pradesh govt presents first-ever Economic Survey, lays out $1 trillion economy roadmap

The survey estimates that Uttar Pradesh’s Gross State Domestic Product has grown at a compound annual growth rate of 10.8 percent, rising from Rs 13.30 lakh crore in 2016-17 to Rs 30.25 lakh crore in 2024-25.

BISWAJEET BANERJEE FEBRUARY 09, 2026 / 16:47 IST

https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/india ... 19573.html

[A_Gupta]

UP Aarthik Samiksha 2025-26 (Hindi, PDF)
https://updes.up.nic.in/updes/data/arth ... 025_26.pdf

[S_Madhukar]

Indian workers in Russia working in garment factory, potato farm, cleaning streets. 50K roubles per month or year in the farm not sure …Lankans too… not sure how many desi commies cleaning streets in Russia. 70 years of socialism and we build other countries instead of our own..

https://youtu.be/pUAngwBIoX0?si=S95xgQ7FqeSBo1rp

[A_Gupta]

Well, there are other things Indian workers are doing, too.
https://www.indulgexpress.com/fashion/t ... -it-factor
Are Indian models becoming luxury’s new it factor?
A new generation of Indian models is stepping into Milan and Paris with authority

In December, Bhavitha Mandava walked into fashion history by opening Chanel’s Métiers d’Art show, becoming the first Indian model to do so.
....
Recently an engineer from Mumbai named Shubham Vaidkar walked for Giorgio Armani at Milan Fashion Week....

https://www.harpersbazaar.in/fashion/st ... 2024-01-23
Four Indian supermodels talk about their experience in the industry and on the global runway
- AVANTI NAGRATH
- DEEPAK GUPTA
- KIRANDEEP CHAHAL
- NAMAN NARNOLIA

https://www.lifestyleasia.com/ind/style ... opilot.com
Top modelling executives on why Indian faces are finally getting their due

For years now, Indian models have been shining on international runways. Whether it is Milan, Paris, London or New York, leading designers are keen to have Indian faces walking their ramps and showcasing their clothes. For instance, model Kirandeep Chahal walked the runway for Dior at the Paris Fashion Week earlier this year. Avanti Nagrath has been another prominent name, having walked for Givenchy, Versace and Coperni amongst others. Dipti Sharma has dominated the ramp for Oscar de la Renta, Dries Van Noten and Michael Kors while Pratik Shetty has become a staple on the international circuit, having walked for J.W Anderson, Balmain, Daniel W. Fletcher and Kaushik Velendra. Recently, Prancy Dedha, represented by Anima Creatives, became the face of LOEWE’s AW 23 campaign.

[drnayar]

https://www.livemint.com/news/us-news/i ... 34572.html

Russia is right. India did not commit to stopping oil purchases

No "additional" oil !!

[drnayar]

[uddu]

They are in the knowing for a long time. He was the one of the three CMs Hillary met when She came to India. Another was Kejru.
TNN / Feb 4, 2002, 23:23 IST
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/cit ... 440534.cms

https://x.com/LoneWolfKaAdda/status/2023281767915135090
@LoneWolfKaAdda

Commentary account
Welcome back to Amravati Mr Bill Gates.

Way back between 2009-10 when Andhra Pradesh was still a single state, your Foundation funded HPV Vaccines in the state along with Gujarat.

Over 23,000 girls, mostly from poor tribal and rural families aged 9-15, received doses of Merck’s Gardasil and GSK’s Cervarix. Most of them from Khammam dt, which was then part of AP.

7 died, out of whom 5 were from Andhra Pradesh,other 2 in Gujarat.

Investigation by a standing parliament commitee in 2013, found major lapses.

Consent was often obtained via school principals rather than parents, many illiterate.

No proper counselling, participants lacked insurance.

This actually led to temporary restrictions on the Foundation’s role in national immunization.

In a serious country, your Foundation would be asked to shut down. And you would never be allowed to enter.

But don't worry, we will not only welcome you, but also allow you to influence our Healthcare, Agriculture, Tech policies .

https://x.com/ncbn/status/2023264382411792486
@ncbn
Welcome back, Mr @BillGates!
#APWelcomeBillGates

[A_Gupta]

Just FYI, the Parliamentary Committee ruled that the deaths were not caused by the vaccines.
https://www.icmr.gov.in/icmrobject/stat ... opilot.com

Out of the five deaths reported from Andhra Pradesh, two died due to consumption of organo-phosphorus poisoning (autopsy proven) and one died due to drowning in a well. All the three girls died after 45, 97 and 49 days after the last HPV vaccine dose respectively. The fourth case developed symptoms 96 days after receiving the third dose of the vaccine and had died of unrelated disease which cannot be linked possibly to HPV. The fifth case had started symptoms 23 days after the last dose and possibly died of severe malaria after eight days of treatment in health facilities. Similarly at Gujarat, one case died of snake bite and the other case died of severe malaria. After reviewing all seven deaths (five deaths from AP in the Gardasil group and two deaths in Gujarat from Cervarix group), it has been observed that there is no common pattern to the deaths that would suggest that they were caused by the vaccine. In cases where there was an autopsy, death certificate, or medical records, the cause of death could be explained by factors other than the vaccine. The background death rates among girls 10-14 years of age in both Vadodora and Khammam districts did not show any
increase rate. In fact in Vadodora district the death rate has significantly decreased in 2009 compared to the past years.

But PATH (the Seattle-based NGO funded by Gates) had no provision for taking care of the girls in case there were issues.