West Asia Crisis — Discussion, Developments, and Bharat’s Strategy

[Amber G.]

x posting some items ..

^^^. Former UK Ambassador drops a massive truth bomb: Iran was observing the 2015 nuclear deal to the letter. Trump sabotaged it purely on Israeli advice, and the claims that Iran was cheating are absolute lies debunked by the International Atomic Energy Agency.

<video>

Gemini 3:

The "Cheating" Debate: Contextual Perspectives

Perspective - Argument on "Cheating"

Russia & China - View Iran's nuclear escalations as legal "remedial measures" allowed under the JCPOA when other parties fail to meet their commitments.

IAEA & Western Allies - Have documented "technical violations," including stockpiling uranium beyond limits and failing to explain traces at undeclared sites.

Israeli Intelligence - Claims archived documents prove Iran never intended to stop its weapons program and merely "lied" about its past activities.

Critics of the Deal - Argue the deal's lack of oversight on ballistic missiles and temporary "sunset clauses" allowed Iran to prepare for future weaponization without technically breaking the rules.

for context recent newsL : From reliable news sources:

Iranian missiles struck southern Israel, especially around the Dimona area, near its main nuclear research center — the Shimon Peres Negev Nuclear Research Center. Dozens of civilians were injured in those strikes.

Iran also reported that its Natanz nuclear facility, Iran’s principal uranium enrichment site, was hit in a strike. Israeli and U.S. forces were widely reported to have targeted Natanz earlier in the conflict.


For bacground: Natanz (Iran)

Iran’s main uranium enrichment facility southeast of Tehran — where uranium is processed and enriched. Reports from today’s fighting and earlier strikes say Natanz has been struck, damaging buildings but not causing a reported nuclear release.
(Natanz has been repeatedly targeted in this conflict )

Shimon Peres Negev Nuclear Research Center (Israel)

This is Israel’s primary nuclear research site near Dimona. Iranian missiles hit areas near this facility today, marking a notable escalation because it’s tied to Israeli strategic infrastructure.

post :viewtopic.php?p=2675508#p2675508
And last:

This excellent New York Times article by David E. Sanger (2015), details the technical partnership between Ernest Moniz and Ali Akbar Salehi which I talked about. A must read.
"Negotiators in Iran Talks Argue Physics Behind Politics"

Key Details:
The "MIT Connection": The article highlights the unique dynamic between the two men. Ernest Moniz (then U.S. Secretary of Energy) was a former MIT physics professor, and Ali Akbar Salehi (head of Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization) earned his PhD in nuclear engineering from MIT in the 1970s. This shared background allowed them to solve technical obstacles that had stalled diplomats for years.

Physics as a Bridge - While political negotiators like John Kerry and Javad Zarif hit walls over "red lines," Moniz and Salehi were often seen off to the side, scribbling formulas and "arguing physics." This allowed them to find creative engineering solutions to political demands, such as how to repurpose centrifuges or modify the Arak heavy-water reactor so it could not produce weapons-grade plutonium.

Another article I remember and noted in BRF by me around the same time was some of the worlds top scientists (including Nobel laureates and veteran arms-control experts) praised the deal as a masterpiece of technical verification. Knowing Salehi and Moniz, and physics there, I agree that that praise was justified.

The deal was :
"

more innovative and stringent constraints than any previously negotiated nonproliferation framework." It . moved the issue from "trust" to "verifiable physics,,,such as monitoring the entire uranium supply chain for 25 years.

Aa said before - technical Solutions:

-Arak Reactor: Redesigning the core so it produced significantly less plutonium and requiring the original core to be filled with concrete.
-Fordow Facility: Converting a fortified underground enrichment site into a "nuclear, physics, and technology center" for stable isotope production.
-Breakout Time: Using enrichment math to ensure that even if Iran cheated, it would take at least one year to gather enough material for a single weapon, giving the world time to react.

In the context of the 2026 conflict I am following Sanger's reporting (IMO, often the "gold standard" because he also maintains deep sources within the Intelligence Community and the Department of War.). For those who are worshipping Trump, let me say I am aware that his reporting has triggered a direct response from the White House to day and Trump mocked him on Truth Social, calling him a "failed analyst"

****

I put these here for easy to review..

[Cyrano]

Thanks for this informative post. Is Saleji still alive?

[Amber G.]

Thanks for this informative post. Is Saleji still alive?

Edited ; More info and links.
Salehiji , while officially retired from the top nuclear post, has been vocal! (Slightly surprised)

Was able to easily check - before the war intensified, Salehi shifted his focus to Quantum Technology, leading Iran's to develop "ultramodern" quantum communications.

From all the indications, he is still acting as a senior statesman and advisor during the current 2026 crisis. Voice of Optimism . In a February 4, 2026 (Link: interview with ISNA), Salehi expressed a rare moment of optimism about "looming nuclear negotiations" but he warned of "mischief" from 'foreign actors' ( Trump & Bibi)

In Response to 2026 Strikes- after the attacks on Natanz and Bushehr, Salehi was mad - calls for compensation and international accountability, labeling the strikes on civilian infrastructure as "ecocide. (Tehran papers) Despite the war, the "MIT connection" is still mentioned among the circle but have no idea if Moniz and he had any recent contact.

[Amber G.]

Meanwhile checking on - Ernest Moniz (Former U.S. Energy Secretary)

Moniz is currently serving as a frequent media analyst and advisor, focusing on the global energy crisis and nuclear escalation resulting from the 2026 strikes.

In March 2026, Moniz has appeared on CNN, Bloomberg TV, and ABC News to discuss the impact of the Strait of Hormuz closure and the strikes on Iranian nuclear sites.

He recently told the Financial Times that the world cannot easily replace the "10 million barrels a day" potentially lost due to the conflict, warning that "oil volatility will persist without new supply."

His role at the Nuclear Threat Initiative (NTI), Moniz has issued statements urging both the U.S. and Russia to maintain the limits of the New START treaty (which expired in February 2026) to prevent a wider "nuclear anarchy."

In July 2025, he co-authored a piece in Science titled "Eighty years at the nuclear brink," reflecting on the fragility of global arms control.

And apart from working on global nuclear risk reduction - he is involved in "Integrated Carbon Accounting" (Not making it up .. (EFI Foundation -)

[A_Gupta]

What will US-Iran talks accomplish unless the US ensures Israel is a party to whatever agreement is reached?

[A_Gupta]

Reports one hour old as I type this suggest most of the talk of negotiations, Pakistan, etc., are not correct. This includes for the US, London, Israel and Dubai. It could be the fog of war, intensified by the fog of Trump.

[uddu]

Reports one hour old as I type this suggest most of the talk of negotiations, Pakistan, etc., are not correct. This includes for the US, London, Israel and Dubai. It could be the fog of war, intensified by the fog of Trump.

This seems to be Trump suggestions and attempt by Trump. Iranians seems not keen. They stopped one tanker going to Pakistan to show their displeasure.
What i assume is that, After NaMo made the attempt to negotiate and held talks with all the Gulf states and Iran, Americans literally gate crashed the talks and pushed their agenda. Probably there was certain things that we could not agree with the U.S or was contrary to what the Gulf states and Iranians wanted and as usual Trump wanting to keep the focus to himself must have pushed for discussion in Pakistan his piddi to have the upper hand, which made the Iranians angry.

[Rakesh]

The butt hurt for the MUTUs on social media and BRF must be quite painful

VIDEO: https://x.com/FurkanGozukara/status/203 ... 70590?s=20 ---> The American empire is crumbling. India just completely ignored US sanctions and bought 5 million barrels of Iranian oil, sending their ships straight through the Strait of Hormuz. The multipolar world is here and Washington has zero control over it.

https://x.com/cagujjubhai/status/203651 ... 90362?s=20 ---> Small correction: India didn't "ignore" sanctions. India negotiated its way through. There's a massive difference between defiance and strategic autonomy. India's ships were classified as "friendly nation" vessels by Iran. That doesn't happen by accident. That happens because India maintained relationships with BOTH sides while everyone else picked a team. The real story isn't that "America is crumbling." The real story is that India has built enough economic and diplomatic leverage to secure its energy supply without asking anyone's permission. 5 million barrels. Through the most contested waterway on earth. While every other buyer was scrambling. That's not rebellion. That's risk management at a civilizational scale.

[uddu]

So Modi's Bharat got to reverse Italian Maino's 2012 restrictions? Now how can Congress claim to be on Iranians side when It was them who stopped buying oil from Iran and it is Modi who reversed that decision? This has massive political implications for the Congress if BJP goes on the offensive especially in poll bound states like Keralam. There the Congress narrative was that they are with Iranians and Modi is against them. Hence Modi is against Muslims. This is the one and only poll strategy of Congress in Keralam. NaMo torpedoed it.

The butt hurt for the MUTUs on social media and BRF must be quite painful

VIDEO: https://x.com/FurkanGozukara/status/203 ... 70590?s=20 ---> The American empire is crumbling. India just completely ignored US sanctions and bought 5 million barrels of Iranian oil, sending their ships straight through the Strait of Hormuz. The multipolar world is here and Washington has zero control over it.

https://x.com/cagujjubhai/status/203651 ... 90362?s=20 ---> Small correction: India didn't "ignore" sanctions. India negotiated its way through. There's a massive difference between defiance and strategic autonomy. India's ships were classified as "friendly nation" vessels by Iran. That doesn't happen by accident. That happens because India maintained relationships with BOTH sides while everyone else picked a team. The real story isn't that "America is crumbling." The real story is that India has built enough economic and diplomatic leverage to secure its energy supply without asking anyone's permission. 5 million barrels. Through the most contested waterway on earth. While every other buyer was scrambling. That's not rebellion. That's risk management at a civilizational scale.

[Rakesh]

https://x.com/idreesali114/status/20365 ... 66006?s=20 ---> U.S. President Donald Trump says Iran gave a significant prize. When asked by reporters what he was talking about, he said it was related to Strait of Hormuz.

https://x.com/AliVaez/status/2036516346784038942?s=20 --->

[Rakesh]

Iran attacks US aircraft carrier
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/ ... an-hormuz/
25 March 2026

[Amber G.]

Reports one hour old as I type this suggest most of the talk of negotiations, Pakistan, etc., are not correct. This includes for the US, London, Israel and Dubai. It could be the fog of war, intensified by the fog of Trump.

This seems to be Trump suggestions and attempt by Trump. Iranians seems not keen. They stopped one tanker going to Pakistan to show their displeasure.
What i assume is that, After NaMo made the attempt to negotiate and held talks with all the Gulf states and Iran, Americans literally gate crashed the talks and pushed their agenda. Probably there was certain things that we could not agree with the U.S or was contrary to what the Gulf states and Iranians wanted and as usual Trump wanting to keep the focus to himself must have pushed for discussion in Pakistan his piddi to have the upper hand, which made the Iranians angry.

Yes, Trump being Trump fog is intensified by the fog of Trump.. I also noticed Pak's tanker going to Pak being stopped...(IMO most dangerous part is Trump (along with experts like his sec of war) is quite clueless about real world and capable of fooled by Munir)

---- Links:
Iran authorities say they have turned back vessel Selen bound for Karachi, Pakistan since it did not have approval to pass Hormuz

[Amber G.]

Meanwhile it is morning in Washington DC, & Trump posted first comments on Iran.
Believes in 'great military achievement in Iran'


And "Resounding military triumph", White House Spox Karoline Leavitt claims on US situation in West Asia war; Points "meetings core military objectives".. etc.. now as I post..

[Amber G.]

xpost: ' Masterpiece use of word 'Dalal' by EAM!

Jaishankar On Pakistan Brokering US Iran Deal: 'India Is Not A Dalal Country Like Pakistan'
India has mocked Pakistan's attempt at mediation in the Middle East war, using the strongest of languages to refer to Islamabad as it seeks a role in global diplomacy. At an all-party meeting in Delhi today, Foreign Minister S Jaishankar derided Pakistan as a "dalal (broker) nation," sources said.

"India will not act as a middleman and dalal (broker) nation like Pakistan," a member present at the meeting recalled the minister as saying.

<youtube]k68J4xrGzp4[/youtube]>

[Amber G.]

FWIW Summary of some items in media - centered on claims that Vice President JD Vance is traveling to Pakistan this weekend for peace talks.
They argue that Iran has "veto power" over U.S. personnel, specifically rejecting negotiators like Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner due to a "deficit of trust" from previous failed talks that allegedly provided cover for military strikes. Vance is framed as a skeptic of Middle East intervention whom Iran views as more committed to ending the war. The U.S. is negotiating from a position of weakness driven by record-low approval ratings and economic strain.Multiple credible news outlets provide significant support for several of these posts ( though some details remain unverified or contested:) Xinhua and Anadolu Agency confirm CNN reports that the White House is trying to arrange talks in Pakistan (or potentially Türkiye) this weekend, with JD Vance expected to travel.

However, sources express skepticism about whether the meeting will actually materialize. Reports from TRT World and The Deep Dive corroborate that Iran has signaled a preference for Vance over Witkoff and Kushner. They cite a "deficit of trust" following the launch of Operation Epic Fury on February 28, which occurred shortly after previous diplomatic efforts. Reports confirm the 82nd Airborne has indeed received deployment orders for the Middle East (Washington Post, CBS News). Additionally, The Times of Israel confirms ongoing Iranian missile barrages targeting Israeli infrastructure

Contradictions: While U.S. is complying with Iranian demands, President Trump stated that his entire team—including Rubio, Witkoff, and Kushner—remains involved. Furthermore, Iran’s Foreign Ministry has publicly denied that any direct negotiations are taking place, labeling such reports as "fake news.".

[drnayar]

FWIW Summary of some items in media - centered on claims that Vice President JD Vance is traveling to Pakistan this weekend for peace talks.
They argue that Iran has "veto power" over U.S. personnel, specifically rejecting negotiators like Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner due to a "deficit of trust" from previous failed talks that allegedly provided cover for military strikes. Vance is framed as a skeptic of Middle East intervention whom Iran views as more committed to ending the war. The U.S. is negotiating from a position of weakness driven by record-low approval ratings and economic strain.Multiple credible news outlets provide significant support for several of these posts ( though some details remain unverified or contested:) Xinhua and Anadolu Agency confirm CNN reports that the White House is trying to arrange talks in Pakistan (or potentially Türkiye) this weekend, with JD Vance expected to travel.

However, sources express skepticism about whether the meeting will actually materialize. Reports from TRT World and The Deep Dive corroborate that Iran has signaled a preference for Vance over Witkoff and Kushner. They cite a "deficit of trust" following the launch of Operation Epic Fury on February 28, which occurred shortly after previous diplomatic efforts. Reports confirm the 82nd Airborne has indeed received deployment orders for the Middle East (Washington Post, CBS News). Additionally, The Times of Israel confirms ongoing Iranian missile barrages targeting Israeli infrastructure

Contradictions: While U.S. is complying with Iranian demands, President Trump stated that his entire team—including Rubio, Witkoff, and Kushner—remains involved. Furthermore, Iran’s Foreign Ministry has publicly denied that any direct negotiations are taking place, labeling such reports as "fake news.".

US is known for conveniently bumping off "negotiators" once they get together in one place ..Who in his right mind would ever trust the US ?!! Iran will never negotiate with US or Israelis for that matter. Russia and China would only be too happy to provide Iranians tactical and covert support to keep the Americans bleeding.

the US has grabbed the tiger by the tail and now can’t let go.

I bet Trump hardly knows what he is doing

And Pakistans involvement is hilarious at best .. a Sunni state laying a table for a Shia one ?! Right

[A_Gupta]

Pakistan's involvement is life and death for it - if Saudi Arabia gets actively involved against Iran, then so must Pakistan - and then Pakistan internally goes up in flames. Pakistan's best bet is some kind of cessation of hostilities.

[bharathp]

so Pakistan with a history of providing bases to US, thinks it can be trusted by Iran?
and pakistan with a history of hiding bin laden, thinks it can be trusted by USA?

[williams]

Is the U.S. heading toward a point of no return in its conflict with Iran? In this high-stakes conversation, renowned political scientist Robert Pape breaks down the concept of the "escalation trap" and explains why the war initiated by Donald Trump may be spiraling beyond control.

My take:
1. Iran controls the strait of Hormuz. They have the leverage to ask for things that will help them survive against two stronger powers.
2. Israel has achieved what it wanted. It has dragged US into the escalation trap. Hence they are focusing on cleaning up southern Lebanon. They are running out of supplies and taking hits, but keeping the heat intact.
3. Trump admin needs a face saver to get out, but communicating that seems to be a problem. Taking over Hormuz by force is a very costly affair both in terms of domestic politics and military losses.
4. GCC will be happy if US can take over the strait of Hormuz without any damage to their infrastructure and influence.
5. Russia wants to keep the pot boiling.
6. China will be happy if US gets trapped as long as their oil supplies are not disrupted.
7. Rest of the world wants the US to get out and Iran to allow shipping across the strait.

[Amber G.]

. Trump admin needs a face saver to get out, but communicating that seems to be a problem.

We had an attack. 100 missiles were shot by Iran at a very important thing that we had. I won't tell you what it was for certain reasons, says Trump <video>

[williams]

. Trump admin needs a face saver to get out, but communicating that seems to be a problem.

We had an attack. 100 missiles were shot by Iran at a very important thing that we had. I won't tell you what it was for certain reasons, says Trump <video>

It should be something that the Trump voters can feel that the war was not fought in vain. They are paying a dollar more for a gallon of gas. They need to know they got something back for it.

[g.sarkar]

https://www.rediff.com/news/interview/l ... 260326.htm
'Israeli Assassinations In Iran Will Continue'
NIKHIL LAKSHMAN, March 26, 2026
As Donald Trump paused his planned attack on Iran's electrical installation and announced that talks had commenced with the Iranians, Israeli aircraft hunted down Dr Saeed Shamkadhri in a targeted airstrike in Tehran.
The professor -- who had links with Iran's nuclear programme -- was not the only casualty; his family perished too. As did, according to one account on X, 50 others who lived in the same building as the professor did.
A day prior, speaking to the media in Arad, which had been attacked by a barrage of Iranian missiles, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel would continue to target Iranian leaders and nuclear scientists.
So potent was the Israeli threat that on Wednesday morning media reports said the US had secured a guarantee that Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf -- two figures likely to be involved in negotiations with the Americans -- would not be harmed by the Israelis for five days.
By all accounts, about 50 prominent Iranians have been slain by the Israelis since the war began on the morning of February 28. Ayatollah Khamenei on day one of the war; Ali Larijani, the second most important figure in the Islamic regime some days later; defence and intelligence ministers, military commanders, scientists... and yet the Islamic regime has not collapsed as the conflict enters its first month on Saturday.
So what is Israel's game here? How long will Mossad and the Israel Defense Forces go after the Iranians?
Luca Trenta, an associate professor at Swansea University in the UK, is an authority on State-sponsored assassinations. "If anything the assassinations have strengthened the Iranian regime that looked very much on the ropes until a few months ago," Dr Luca tells Nikhil Lakshman/Rediff in a Zoom interview.
Why hasn't the Iranian regime collapsed despite Israel assassinating about so many figures of varying importance?
Probably because it is a fairly decentralised regime and they might have been preparing for something like this for quite some time. It is a regime that is very entrenched, it is very established. The regime is not solely its leadership, it's much broader than that.
So it was always unlikely that the regime would have collapsed out of a decapitation strike from the air. Regime change has never really happened just from the air. Even the US intelligence community had warned the Trump administration that this was unlikely to happen.
Do you think that the Iranians were naive in assuming that they wouldn't become targets for the Israelis after the war commenced?
We know how deep the Israelis had penetrated the Islamic superstructure.
So was it carelessness that led to so many Iranian leaders being picked up?
I'm not necessarily sure it was carelessness. Yes, Israel has proven to have penetrated Iran.
And certainly the early news stories suggested that there were a lot of signal intelligence as well as potentially human intelligence on the ground used in the operation. They (the Iranians) might have been a bit naive in congregating so many leaders in the same place and risking a much broader decapitation that they would have had if the leadership was more dispersed. But at the same time -- based on a Reuters story on the 24th of March -- we now know that the decapitation did not happen after the war started.
Actually the timing of the strikes was due to intelligence on the congregation of these Iranian leaders. So it's not like the war started and Iran didn't take any measures. The war started with the decapitation of the leaders.
So I don't think it was necessarily naive on the Iranian part.
......
Gautam

[drnayar]

We had an attack. 100 missiles were shot by Iran at a very important thing that we had. I won't tell you what it was for certain reasons, says Trump <video>

It should be something that the Trump voters can feel that the war was not fought in vain. They are paying a dollar more for a gallon of gas. They need to know they got something back for it.

Trump team says Americans are cool with high gas prices for Iran war

https://www.dailykos.com/story/2026/3/2 ... r-Iran-war

[Vayutuvan]

Meanwhile checking on - Ernest Moniz (Former U.S. Energy Secretary)
...
And apart from working on global nuclear risk reduction - he is involved in "Integrated Carbon Accounting" (Not making it up .. (EFI Foundation -)

Please take a look at this I posted about this fellow Ernest Moniz.

viewtopic.php?p=2676042#p2676042

[Vayutuvan]

Moved to Understanding the US (I am not sure. If admins deem that this belongs to India-US thread, please move there)

[Amber G.]

Trump’s New Announcement:

As per Iranian Government request, please let this statement serve to represent that I am pausing the period of Energy Plant destruction by 10 Days to Monday, April 6, 2026, at 8 PM, Eastern Time.”

[ritesh]

4) “Iran is winning because it survives” — valid in a sense that in a classic asymmetric warfare if it survives and imposes cost → it’s “winning”

AmberG, just to add to above, this is/was same for Palestinians porkis and entire ummah I guess. They revel in this philosophy as survival itself is win in their book. Just look at comments post Op Sindoor from across the border.

So, learning for Modi's Bharat should be to completely obliterate the state of napak next time it turns kinetic.

Sorry, for OT.

[uddu]

https://x.com/i/status/2037204337416692144
@MeghUpdates
BIG! Iran Naval Commander, Admiral Alireza Tangsiri has been KILLED.

[uddu]

Iran Prepares for War as U.S. Eyes Kharg Island Strike | Middle East War | N18G | 4K
Iran is turning Kharg Island into a fortified kill zone as tensions with the United States escalate. Mines are being planted, missiles deployed, and defenses hardened — all while American drones watch from above. This tiny island handles nearly 90% of Iran’s oil exports, making it one of the most critical choke points in the global energy war

[uddu]

U.S. Is About to Do Something HISTORIC… This Will CHANGE the Strait of Hormuz FOREVER
Iran has already faced two Marine Expeditionary Units moving toward its doorstep — and now the U.S. is escalating again. Elite paratroopers from the 82nd Airborne Division are deploying to the Middle East as Operation Epic Fury enters a dangerous new phase. With Kharg Island and the Strait of Hormuz at the center of rising tensions, this historic buildup could reshape global energy security. But the biggest question remains: is this preparation for pressure… or for war?

[uddu]

Why the US and Iran are fighting over this tiny waterway
The Strait of Hormuz, “the jugular of the global economy," has become a useful bargaining chip for Iran.

[Amber G.]

xposr: Recent months have seen a sharp global rise in GPS spoofing and jamming, especially in conflict zones like the Middle East and near Russia, where ships and aircraft are increasingly receiving false position data or losing navigation signals altogether. Thousands of vessels and hundreds of flights have been affected, with some systems reporting impossible speeds or locations—clear signs of deliberate spoofing rather than simple interference. While aviation and maritime sectors remain safe due to redundancy, the trend highlights a deeper vulnerability: GPS signals are extremely weak and easy to overpower locally, making them a soft target for electronic warfare. As a result, reliance on GPS alone is no longer considered robust, and systems are steadily shifting toward multi-sensor navigation and backup technologies.

--- Middle East (hottest current hotspot)
Massive spike tied to the US–Israel–Iran conflict
~1,100+ ships affected by GPS interference in just weeks
Ships showing impossible positions/speeds (e.g., appearing on land or moving at >100 knots) → classic spoofing signatures
Aviation also impacted: aircraft receiving false position data mid-flight

==> Net effect: The Strait of Hormuz is being described as a “digital minefield” for navigation.

[uddu]

The Peace Brokers
SAUDI ULTIMATUM? | MBS "Alarmed" by Pakistan’s Neutral Stance on Iran | Latest news Updates
Saudi Arabia has raised alarm over Iranian strikes while expressing concern over Pakistan’s cautious, balancing stance amid rising regional tensions

[krisna]

WRT POTUS - whoever is the incumbent, they have to maintain the status of superpower . That is the main goal of deep state. It does not matter whether one is a donkey elephant monkey or goat. This is immaterial. All POTUSe are like that.

OTOH POTUSes also want something to cherish when they leave the office as a lasting legacy. They do certain other things which are allowed or not tinkered by DS- mostly domestic.

DS is meant to maintain uncle influence on the world- spans lot of POTUSes not just 4-8 years.

Current POTUS(basically Pappu Of The USa) is in such a situation.

since world war 2 when usa became the undipusted superpower(USSR was a challenger to this throne only), all POTUses job was to maintain its hegemony. Sign on dotted line to authorise wrt intervention on outside world using the most powerful military. Do diplomacy and other stuff including covert overt warfares etc.

Inside POTUSes circle there are people of various capacities and intelligence. The power balance can shift depending on who is inside and what influence they can wield on the other members.

In the last 60 odd years with waning of world wars influence, the members profile have changed. Previously more military personnel were in some capacity and influence . Many were against foreign interventions for frivolous reasons. More robust facts etc were needed. More discussions and intelligence needed. But with increasing time , these military specialists people have been supplanted by lawyers and other influential people esp in numbers. These have grown in influence. many of these have no field work experience like combat personnel who have seen live battle field action and its horrors.
------------------------------------------------
Coming specifically to the last 25+ odd years.

Russia -
1) Post demise of USSR and victory of usa- Uncle was bent on humiliating Russian Bear. This led to rise of putin and closing of ranks of russians. Previous Potuses tried hard to dethrone Putin as he was doing good to Russia. Intially Putin was weak and agreed to usa words. But Bushes Clintons and down to obama biden- all did not keep up theirs. Instead tried to remove him. They tried stunts in Georgia, the central asia stans, chechnya, baltics etc . All failed. ukraine was the best opportunity- they tried to take down Russia. Instead Russia too a beating but still standing tall.USA lost mojo and its reputation. Europe came out as sore losers.
Ukraine has become pakraine to Russia at present. Pakraine has lost lot of its population and destroyed economically.

MENA

2) There were plans afoot for muddle east post ussr demise. Uncle maintin as its hegemony on world thru petrodollars. Oil is the engine. It wanted to eliminate russian influnece. It also made costly errors in iran when it removed friendly Shah of iran and helped Ruhollah Khoemeini who was in iraq/paris to capture power.culinary institute and other agencies have a poor track record of understanding the asian cultures. Ruhollah was spewing fire on shah of irana and jews and america even before also. He was well known as a hardline islamic cleric. culinary folks know this but went along hoping he will modify his stance once in power. But reverse happened due to the culinary inadequate knowledge of asian cultures and maybe superiority complex.

Saddam Hussein Egypt miliatary leaders gaddafi and few others in tiny arap states were helped directly or indirectly by uncle to weild its influence. saddam gadaffi and few others all got halaaled when they went out of their way earning uncle displeasure. The culinary institute DS were not in knowledge of what will happen post these leaders demise from power. There is lot of fighting ongoing in libya and northern afrcia sahel region and many other places due to foreign interventions including usa.

Iran-

Meanwhile Iran thru relgious indoctrination has made all its citizens grew hatred to jews christinas and Hindus( in that order - Isreal taking a beating in this followed by usa - hence Hindus in India get protected as weaker of the lot and we are not fighting them). Iran funding terr0ists against isreal is an ever present danger to jews. they have no chocie but decapitate iran leadership and install friednly regime like shah of iran who was pragmatic. He had decent relationships with isreal not overt. If isreal loses its war , jews are gone. It is an existential threat. No sunni araps will help them. Of course no bleeding heart liberals will support them , no pieceful community even in usa/europe will adhere to human rights.

In iran those oppose islamic mullah regime are either gone outside iran or too weak inside both in numbers to create a big fight for regime change. Most of the young iranians are hardliners indoctrinated by the regime( similar to terr0istan our friendly neighborhood).

Khoemeini regime has all along used religious indoctrination to build massive miliatry strenght . It knows it cannot defeat uncle militarily. hence it uses asymmetric warfare and propaganda effectively. It also uses low cost warfare on isreal thru hamas and hezbollah at the cost of its own people economic development.( Please read Ambedkar book on India terr0istan partiton where he explains why pieceful community dont care for development) .

Nuke issue.
Iran knows that nuke deterrent is a must and also can drop it on isreal. Hence isreal is fighting for its survival and hell bent on desroying anyone in the nighbourhood of arap nations acquiring it.
POTUS - obama time did the nuke agreement - this is just buying time for iran to develop its arsenal. iran will not stop making it. Agreements are written in paper only. Mullah regime respects the religious book more than the written agreement. It is foolish to expect iran will stop uranium enrichment. Uncle has a history of breaking agreements when it suits its interests. DS wanted it to break hence it happenend. POTUS individually will not have that kind of will to do it on outside issues . yes POTUS have leverage on political side of things as they have to win elections politically etc .
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Recall that there was this famous Commander of usa and allied forces in 1990s saying that few countries in MENA will be toppled or disturbances will be created after 9/11 happened. Iraq,lebanon,Iran,somalia,Sudan Libya syria etc. He a military man seen live action on battle field actually advocated that this was a wrong approach and eventually joined democratcis party later.

POTUes have faithfully followed the trajectory. Bush removed iraq-saddam hussein and created choas. unfortunately it took lot of time and loss of lives of uncle soldiers. Obama took the others- the easier ones with destrcution of libya, syria, somlia, sudan and its aftermath etc. Lot of infighting and destabilisation of these places occurred. No one mentions Africa nowadays where lot of fights and deaths misery poverty etc abound. largest on planet currently. recall the words "Bees and beehives"- damage the beehive- bees fly elsewhere- in this case all hardliners of pieceful sunni community went to western democracies and are now influencing local politics in some countries.

pappu of 45 POTUS winded down on afghanisthan, almost took on iran but other events took over.
Pappu of 46 POTUS took over ukraine conflict after winding down on Afghanisthan.
This took a toll on economy of america with gas prices in 2022 higher than the none curently. (not too far from that high)

Current Pappu of usa- is now waging war against the remaining country as outlined by DS- iran the toughest of all countries due to relgious indoctrination and military fortification done by mullah regime based on its relgious book of hatred. Many in iran firmly believe this is the war their leader has been saying all along these years.

Uncle is no mood to fight a prolonged war against these religious motivated zombie iranian soldiers.They can drop bums from sky but will hardly make mullah regime to quit their rule. ( Yogoslavia was split into different coutries thru air campaign during clinton time)

Strait of Hormuz is Iran jugular vein and will be used to the maximum by the mullahs. They are fighting for survival. Isreal fights for its survival. uncle has overstretched its hand and military power esp after its involvement in defeating russia in ukr russ conflict.

Orange monkey is a just a figurehead . These POTUSes are just political figures with authority to wage wars etc and do political machinations in congress in dhobhighat and take care of DS interests.

( Kitchen cabinet was introduced during early days of america independence-- POTUses reward key political donors with plum positions of influnece within administration. They help sometime steer the POTUSes the wrong way if not done correctly- every POTUses have their won kitchen cabinet -some are good some are rank bad- can steer wrong way and make a mess)

[drnayar]

xposr: Recent months have seen a sharp global rise in GPS spoofing and jamming, especially in conflict zones like the Middle East and near Russia, where ships and aircraft are increasingly receiving false position data or losing navigation signals altogether. Thousands of vessels and hundreds of flights have been affected, with some systems reporting impossible speeds or locations—clear signs of deliberate spoofing rather than simple interference. While aviation and maritime sectors remain safe due to redundancy, the trend highlights a deeper vulnerability: GPS signals are extremely weak and easy to overpower locally, making them a soft target for electronic warfare. As a result, reliance on GPS alone is no longer considered robust, and systems are steadily shifting toward multi-sensor navigation and backup technologies.

--- Middle East (hottest current hotspot)
Massive spike tied to the US–Israel–Iran conflict
~1,100+ ships affected by GPS interference in just weeks
Ships showing impossible positions/speeds (e.g., appearing on land or moving at >100 knots) → classic spoofing signatures
Aviation also impacted: aircraft receiving false position data mid-flight

==> Net effect: The Strait of Hormuz is being described as a “digital minefield” for navigation.

there are widespread reports of commercial ships' electronic systems going "haywire" near naval operations are documented phenomena tied to Electronic Warfare (EW). These incidents have surged particularly since the start of the conflict in Iran (early 2026)

And its not just navigation


Commercial mariners have reported that interference is no longer limited to simple navigation signals but is affecting broader shipboard systems: GPS and AIS are being manipulated through spoofing, which transmits fake signals that trick receivers into displaying false locations. In some cases, ships appear to be hundreds of miles from their true location or "jump" onto land.
There is growing concern about the security of critical hardware, including engines and propulsion systems, which are increasingly vulnerable as they become more digitally connected.Ships in high-risk zones like the Strait of Hormuz have reported mass navigation failures, with over 1,700 interference events logged in a single week in March 2026.

even the perception of a "super weapon" typically stems from the sudden and total loss of situational awareness that occurs during intense EW activity:military jamming often bleeds over into commercial lanes.. both jamming and spoofing

[A_Gupta]

The Hill: **after the war ends**

Rubio warns Europe that Iran could impose ‘tolling system’ on Strait of Hormuz
https://thehill.com/homenews/administra ... z-tolling/

Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Friday warned European allies that Iran could set up a “tolling system” in the Strait of Hormuz after the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran ends.

Rubio raised this possibility to reporters after he met with foreign ministers of the Group of Seven nations during his trip to Cernay-la-Ville, France.

“I did describe to our allies, however, that immediately after this thing ends, and we’re done with our objectives, the immediate challenge we’re going to face is an Iran that may decide that they want to set up a tolling system in the Strait of Hormuz,” he said. “Not only is this illegal, it’s unacceptable, it’s dangerous for the world. And it’s important that the world have a plan to confront it.”

He added that the U.S. “is prepared to be a part of that plan” but not lead it, and that allies had a lot of “buy-in to that concept” if Iran carries out such a plan.

“But these countries have a lot at stake, not just the G7 countries, but countries in Asia and all over the world have a lot at stake and should contribute greatly to that effort,” he continued,” to ensure that neither the Strait of Hormuz or, frankly, any international waterways should ever be something that’s controlled or tolled by a nation-state or by a terroristic government like the one that exists in Iran today and that clerical, radical clerical regime.”

[uddu]

Rubio warns Europe that Iran could impose ‘tolling system’ on Strait of Hormuz

This is a known. This will apply to anyone across the world. In our case as well, when Iran tries to impose their military power on the strait and be the pirate in their backyard, nations need to respond. For us, we can block any Iranian tanker or ship from transiting in the Indian Ocean without paying a hefty fee. Tit for Tat.
Now the reality is that they have nothing to sail. Even their own Navy is finished. Whatever is sailing to and from Iran are Chinese ships. How will you blockade the Chinese from going in and out of Iran. So Iran is free to impose tariff if they choose to and if the world let them to. Best is to let the Israeli's and American's to deal with the situation.

[krisna]

Straits of hormuz is a vital economic link to the world.
The UNCLOs( United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea ) says that it should be kept open.
Iran is a memebr of it but has not agreed to this by UNCLOS.

This is the standard response of iran from the times of shah to now.

Iran regards it as its own.

India and many other countries do not buy this iranian argument. It wants straits of Hormuz to be kept open.

Iran will lose whatever support it has if it keeps it closed.

[A_Gupta]

The Shia in Bahrain are restive, says France24.
https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/2 ... ts-kingdom

[A_Gupta]

Rubio warns Europe that Iran could impose ‘tolling system’ on Strait of Hormuz

This is a known. This will apply to anyone across the world. In our case as well, when Iran tries to impose their military power on the strait and be the pirate in their backyard, nations need to respond. For us, we can block any Iranian tanker or ship from transiting in the Indian Ocean without paying a hefty fee. Tit for Tat.
Now the reality is that they have nothing to sail. Even their own Navy is finished. Whatever is sailing to and from Iran are Chinese ships. How will you blockade the Chinese from going in and out of Iran. So Iran is free to impose tariff if they choose to and if the world let them to. Best is to let the Israeli's and American's to deal with the situation.

The point of the post is that a few days ago Trump said he was going to force the Strait of Hormuz open. Now his Secretary of State is saying that the Strait of Hormuz needs to be opened by others **after** the war.