West Asia Crisis — Discussion, Developments, and Bharat’s Strategy

[Cain Marko]

Heh. As Captain America famously said, I can do this all day!

The US can continue to play this game and strike whenever it wishes for as long as it wants. The bill will be paid by the GCC, as their desperation grows.

Right now the groups feeling the most pain (after Iran and Israel) in order are:
1. GCC
2. EU, UK
3. Soko and Japan
4. India
5. China
6. Russia
7. US.

The US can simply wait as its own domestic production and Venezuelan supply picks up and the ROWs supply dries up.

It's only a matter of time before the GCC, EU and others get involved and start bearing the cost of controlling Iran. Or they're economies get in a major whole.

https://gasprices.aaa.com/

Not so fast. While others will feel the economic impact, this administration is hurting the American economy as well. In the last two months, average gas prices have gone from $2.75 to $4. A rough estimate is that every $1 increase in gas prices reduces GDP by 0.25%. On top of that, there are the costs of war and the economic gains for major powers. If the U.S. continues to act irresponsibly, other countries will lose trust in its leadership. This could lead to a world where American influence is no longer welcome in global economies. Right now, everyone is in wait-and-watch mode. The moment Americans leave the area, they will all shake hands with both GCC and Iran, go for rebuilding contracts, and buy their oil. Next time the US thinks about sanctions, you bet there is going to be a revolt in the UN.

The US domestic oil and Venezuelan supplies will increase with time, not reduce. This makes them less vulnerable. As for waiting for the US to leave and making deals, easier said than done.

[SBajwa]

[V_Raman]

Massa is a rich ass country - all this inflation talk - is just hyperbole. They can handle it - especially if this means extending Pax America

[Amber G.]

Just like he claimed NaMo "talked" with him...
Iran-Israel war LIVE: Trump claims Iran President has asked for a ceasefire; Tehran calls it 'false, baseless'

[Jay]

Some twitter handle compiled the gist of all the orange pedo's tweets from the start of the war

Mar 3: "We won the war."
Mar 7: "We defeated Iran."
Mar 9: "We must attack Iran." "The war is ending almost completely, and very beautifully."
Mar 12: "We did win, but we haven't won completely yet."
Mar 13: "We won the war."
Mar 14: "Please help us."
Mar 15: "If you don't help us, I will certainly remember it."
Mar 16: "Actually, we don't need any help at all." "I was just testing to see who's listening to me." "If NATO doesn't help, they will suffer something very bad."
Mar 17: "We neither need nor want NATO's help." "I don't need Congressional approval to withdraw from NATO."
Mar 18: "Our allies must cooperate in reopening the Strait of Hormuz."
Mar 19: "US allies need to get a grip -step up and help open the Strait of Hormuz"
Mar 20: "NATO are cowards."
Mar 21: "We don't use it, we don't need to open it."
Mar 22: "This is the last time. I will give Iran 48 hours." "Iran is Dead"
Mar 23: "We are giving them more time."
Mar 24: "The war is nearing its end."
Mar 25: "We are still negotiating."
Mar 26: "Iran is begging for peace. They gave us a gift. We will give them more time."
Mar 27: "Talks with iran are going very well"
Mar 28: "War will be over soon"
Mar 29: "Maybe we take Kharg island, maybe we dont"
Mar 30: "Open the Strait or we will obliterate all energy infrastructure and oil wells"
Mar 31: "We dont need the strait, we got plenty of oil. Get it yourself UK."

[Amber G.]

News report: UAE President His Highness Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan today held a phone call with Donald Trump, President of the United States of America, during which they discussed developments in the region and their serious implications for regional and international peace and security, as well as their impact on maritime security and the global economy.

The two sides also discussed the continued Iranian terrorist aggression targeting the UAE and other countries in the region, including attacks on civilians and civilian infrastructure, noting that it constitutes a violation of sovereignty and international law and undermines regional security and stability

[Amber G.]

Some twitter handle compiled the gist of all the orange pedo's tweets from the start of the war

Mar 3: "We won the war."
<snip>
Mar 31: "We dont need the strait, we got plenty of oil. Get it yourself UK."

April 1:
White House: "Clear objectives since day one."


(Translation (per some person)
THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON OPERATION EPSTEIN FURY
Lied about having a plan
Run out of Interceptors
Deplete of stockpile in record time
Reiterate BS to manipulate markets0

[drnayar]

News report: UAE President His Highness Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan today held a phone call with Donald Trump, President of the United States of America, during which they discussed developments in the region and their serious implications for regional and international peace and security, as well as their impact on maritime security and the global economy.

The two sides also discussed the continued Iranian terrorist aggression targeting the UAE and other countries in the region, including attacks on civilians and civilian infrastructure, noting that it constitutes a violation of sovereignty and international law and undermines regional security and stability

most likely Trump asked him to finance the continued war

[bala]

This thread is turning into a litany on DJT and no one gives a hoot (yeah, compare the previous US el presidente who forgot his own name and let the US deep state rule). What matters is things happening on the ground. So far there is a pounding of Iran unabated by Israel and US. There are the occassional missiles/drones sent towards Arab nations and some into Israel. Collateral damages have occurred on US assets in the gulf. But the goals are clear - weaken Iran, no nukes and free up oil supply (which is going towards China from Iran). I might add no more aytollahs. These are happening albeit in not the predicted path. The rest is mere noise than any substance.

[Amber G.]

What matters is things happening on the ground..

Some say ‘only ground realities matter’ and everything else is ‘noise.’

Fair enough—so here’s part of the signal:

US PRESIDENT TRUMP <see the clip>:

“Tonight, I’m making a little speech at 9 o’clock… I’m gonna tell everybody how GREAT I am… what a PHENOMENAL job I’ve done!”

Because nothing says strategic clarity like self-appraisal in prime time.

[bala]

Fair enough—so here’s part of the signal:
Sorry, how is this related to "West Asia Crisis"? which is this thread. Please open another thread - DJT follies or US El Presidente blah blah.

[williams]

This thread is turning into a litany on DJT and no one gives a hoot (yeah, compare the previous US el presidente who forgot his own name and let the US deep state rule). What matters is things happening on the ground. So far there is a pounding of Iran unabated by Israel and US. There are the occassional missiles/drones sent towards Arab nations and some into Israel. Collateral damages have occurred on US assets in the gulf. But the goals are clear - weaken Iran, no nukes and free up oil supply (which is going towards China from Iran). I might add no more aytollahs. These are happening albeit in not the predicted path. The rest is mere noise than any substance.

If we focus only on the military side, Iran is clearly suffering heavy losses every day. But that’s just part of the story. The larger issue is the global political landscape.

European countries are starting to push back against US policies. France and Germany have raised concerns, and European leaders have met separately to consider other options. I think they will soon make direct deals with Iran to get around American sanctions. Several countries have already closed their airspace to American flights during this conflict.

GCC countries will have to change how much oil they produce. Shipping delays mean storage tanks are filling up because fewer ships are using important routes. As oil builds up and storage space runs out, producers might need to slow down or stop production, which is costly and hard to handle.

For now, Israel appears satisfied and is working with the Americans, since weakening Iran still serves their security interests. But it’s unclear how long the public will tolerate attacks and alarms, or how long the military can keep fighting. There are already signs of war fatigue. In the end, Israel will need more ammunition and renewed determination.

A report from the Middle East Council on Global Affairs says Turkey has shifted from confrontation to making peace with former rivals, showing a more careful and diplomatic approach instead of direct action. India attends meetings but stays neutral and focuses on its own energy needs. Even Saudi Arabia, usually a US ally, is calling for restraint and quietly talking with Iran. This shows these countries care more about stability than just following the US, and they work together only when it benefits them.

The Strait is still closed to most. Iran keeps a tight grip, even after heavy bombing. They use naval patrols, lay mines, and send fast boats to threaten ships. Their coastal defenses and anti-ship missiles make it dangerous for anyone trying to open the Strait by force. Iran also depends on allies and surprise tactics to disrupt outside efforts, making intervention risky and costly. This continued control shows Iran’s resilience and influence over this important route.

We shouldn’t view this as Trump versus the previous administration, or Republicans against Democrats. There is a political angle at home, but a permanent bureaucracy, often called the deep state, remains no matter who is in charge. It’s only been a month. I get that, but the war’s planners haven’t met their goals, and reaching them would require a risky and expensive escalation.

[Amber G.]

Fair enough—so here’s part of the signal:
Sorry, how is this related to "West Asia Crisis"? which is this thread. Please open another thread - DJT follies or US El Presidente blah blah.

This needs to be answered -- as from the member who starting this thread ..see my opening post.

1.- This is absolutely related to the "West Asia Crisis." When the Commander-in-Chief of the primary external force in the region makes a prime-time address regarding his "phenomenal" handling of the crisis, his words are the strategic signal—whether one likes the frequency or not. (see the opening post - link above)

2 - It is getting quite tiresome to see basic geopolitical analysis labeled as "off-topic" simply because it bruises certain sensibilities. Perhaps (seriously) the devotees of the "Orange One" should start their own dedicated thread—something like "How to Troll a Strategy Thread with constant Stale Nonsense"—so the rest of us can focus on the actual developments on the ground without the gatekeeping.

Enough is enough.

[bala]

The Strait is still closed to most.

xPost

Please see this. Also IMECC is definitely another outcome. Saudi A and others are thinking of overland pipeline to circumvent Hormuz.

[bala]

simply because it bruises certain sensibilities

Please continue with your tiring 1 track nonsense. Don't respond to anything I write either, I will ignore you, please ignore my observations as a courtesy.
Obummer JCPOA is a sham and Israel knows it and bombed Iran's nuclear enrichment facilities, Isfahan deep bunkers are gone - this is strategy!

[pravula]

https://gasprices.aaa.com/

Not so fast. While others will feel the economic impact, this administration is hurting the American economy as well. In the last two months, average gas prices have gone from $2.75 to $4. A rough estimate is that every $1 increase in gas prices reduces GDP by 0.25%. On top of that, there are the costs of war and the economic gains for major powers. If the U.S. continues to act irresponsibly, other countries will lose trust in its leadership. This could lead to a world where American influence is no longer welcome in global economies. Right now, everyone is in wait-and-watch mode. The moment Americans leave the area, they will all shake hands with both GCC and Iran, go for rebuilding contracts, and buy their oil. Next time the US thinks about sanctions, you bet there is going to be a revolt in the UN.

The US domestic oil and Venezuelan supplies will increase with time, not reduce. This makes them less vulnerable. As for waiting for the US to leave and making deals, easier said than done.

Don't forget Canada and its super heavy tar/oil. There are built up pipelines that are ready to start, but waiting for a few decades now IIRC. Nothing like a war to bulldoze opposition from nativeamericans.

[chetak]

The Strait is still closed to most.

xPost

Please see this. Also IMECC is definitely another outcome. Saudi A and others are thinking of overland pipeline to circumvent Hormuz.

bala saar,



the missiles and drones will have to travel just a teeny bit more is all


nothing is safe from the eyeraanian use of swarm attacks by drones


The only solution is to prevent such attacks in the GCC region, either by neutering capabilities, or pest control of the leadership cohort


if all it took was a pipeline(s), the sheiks would have got them built in a day, between breakfast and lunch, so to speak

[pravula]

The Strait is still closed to most.

xPost

Please see this. Also IMECC is definitely another outcome. Saudi A and others are thinking of overland pipeline to circumvent Hormuz.

Overland to where? The other coast has been on/off with Houthis for a few years now. They can probably run a pipeline through Syria/Turkey to EU, as long as they bend the knee to Ottomans

[uddu]

xPost

Please see this. Also IMECC is definitely another outcome. Saudi A and others are thinking of overland pipeline to circumvent Hormuz.

bala saar,



the missiles and drones will have to travel just a teeny bit more is all


nothing is safe from the eyeraanian use of swarm attacks by drones


The only solution is to prevent such attacks in the GCC region, either by neutering capabilities, or pest control of the leadership cohort


if all it took was a pipeline(s), the sheiks would have got them built in a day, between breakfast and lunch, so to speak

Chetak Sir, Pipelines will get hit. But will be much easier to repair. There will be a down time but they can fix it. Far easier than protecting and replacing tankers. They did not do it, because they did not want the traffic from their port to deviate to other region especially Oman. Even the current plans don't seem to be to extend it to Dhuqm port. Within UAE and Saudi Moving it to their Western sea. No one want to pay Oman anything for transporting their oil and also don't want to rely on Oman for their petroleum export.

[Vayutuvan]

Can boring company machinery be used to lay a (deep enough) buried pipeline?

[chetak]

Can boring company machinery be used to lay a (deep enough) buried pipeline?

Vayutuvan saar,


they are already using bunker busters to target fortified, hardened, and deeply buried targets

What about when (and where) the said pipeline(s) would emerge into the desert air at the end of their burrowed journey(s)

that would be the terminals for oil and gas, with nice, fat, well fed and juicy tankers and gas carriers all berthed neatly in a row

well brought up missiles and drones are genuinely agnostic, secular and non sectarian in the performance of their duties


Something like this view below is what those excited and joyful missiles and drones would see just before entering their terminal attack phase








Let's not even go near iron dome, copper dome, wooden dome, or domes of what ever description or THAAD or whatever

[bala]

either by neutering capabilities, or pest control of the leadership cohort

Chetak saar, agreed on the above. A complete change in Iran is what Israel and US are after, no more Aytollahs reigning the roost in Iran.

Pipelines are also vulnerable and drones are now a global menance. Ukraine has hammered a few Russki refineries using drones, now Russia has stopped selling refined products. Talking about pipelines, Germany recently announced that they will repair Nordstream pipeline coming from Russia! Wonder of wonder.

[A_Gupta]

“ well brought up missiles and drones are genuinely agnostic, secular and non sectarian in the performance of their duties”

[uddu]

Iranian's this time used Prithvi type multi warhead missiles, that dispersed the warheads beyond the reach of Anti-Ballistic missile defense.
https://x.com/AdithyaKM_/status/1789534098916352178


Another is to make the missile maneuvering just outside of the Anti-Ballistic missile range and making the Anti-ballistic missile ineffective. Most of the damages by Iran is due to this strategy.

[Lisa]

Some twitter handle compiled the gist of all the orange pedo's tweets from the start of the war

Ji do you have a link to the Pedo accusation?

[A_Gupta]

Jonathan V Last in The Bulwark:

It is true, as the president said last night, that the Iranian navy and air force have been almost eliminated.

It is also beside the point. The Islamic Republic has never been—and never wanted to be—a naval power. They have never made extensive use of air power. Those two branches have nothing to do with the regime’s strategic goals.
…
The Iranian leadership cares about two things: preserving its theocratic regime and possessing strategic weapons.
…

The United States launched the Iran war with no stated aims. Since then, various members of the American regime have suggested that the goals of the war were:

Topple the Islamic Republic and install a new regime.

Leave the regime in place, but decapitate it and exercise control over the choice of its next leader.

Destroy the Iranian nuclear program, which had been destroyed in June, but had regrown to become an imminent threat.

Destroy the Iranian stock of ballistic missiles.

Destroy the Iranian stock of suicide drones.

Re-open the Strait of Hormuz and return the world oil supply to what it had been before the war.

Trump’s speech last night abandoned every single one of these objectives.

The Islamic Republic is still in full control of Iran.

The supreme leader was chosen completely independently of American input.

Iran’s nuclear program remains as destroyed as it was in June—which is to say that it is either “completely obliterated” for all time, or nine months away from being an imminent threat.

We have no sense of either Iran’s remaining ballistic missile stock or its timeline to build more missiles.

Iranian suicide drones continue to operate.

Trump concedes that America is willing to end operations with the strait still closed and has punted responsibility for achieving that objective to other nations.

If, in February, you had told Iran that they could trade all of the above outcomes for the destruction of their navy and air force, they would have taken that deal in a heartbeat.

[A_Gupta]

Further:

By abdicating responsibility for the strait and saying it should be someone else’s problem, America is inviting into existence a rival economic and military alliance.
…
…
It is one thing to inch away from the obligations of empire. It is another thing entirely to create the conditions for a rival empire to arise and then blithely invite them to supplant you.

[Amber G.]

Around 6,24,000 passengers have travelled to India since 28 February from West Asia, says Indian Govt

[A_Gupta]

I don’t know how much the “mowing the lawn” strategy has been adopted by the US administration, but I hear increasing talk about it by various reporters.

The idea is that Iran would be under constant surveillance for any resurrection of its nuclear, drone or ballistic missile program; and at any sign of revival, US will bomb it into smithereens. That is, a permanent state of war. In order for the US to be able to conduct aerial surveillance unmolested, I suppose any air defense or Air Force will also be promptly bombed.

[V_Raman]

Further:

By abdicating responsibility for the strait and saying it should be someone else’s problem, America is inviting into existence a rival economic and military alliance.
…
…
It is one thing to inch away from the obligations of empire. It is another thing entirely to create the conditions for a rival empire to arise and then blithely invite them to supplant you.

Except that there is no real rival empire/alliance - economic or military - anywhere in the vicinity for decades ahead. Massa also holds much much superior economic/military power to crush any one trying. So Trump can say such things. Such is the state of the world now.

This is political 2008 - Massa is too big to fail - very unique in history where the world is pleading with USA to continue to be the empire and global cop!!

[KL Dubey]

The US domestic oil and Venezuelan supplies will increase with time, not reduce. This makes them less vulnerable. As for waiting for the US to leave and making deals, easier said than done.

That's a "penny-wise, pound-foolish" deal. Beyond the question of "oil supplies", a far more important outcome of this war (or "excursion" ) is the possible erosion (or accelerated end) of trust in the post-WW2 western-led "security" apparatus, which is also linked to trust in the western financial system and western fiat currencies. NATO is already in shambles after the Greenland shenanigans. Now, countries in Europe have basically refused to help in west Asia in order to cut their losses and break free of an increasingly "lost cause". Moreover, the Turks have proactively colluded with the Iranian state to liquidate an instigated kurdish "rebellion" on both sides of their border.

As I wrote before, the behavior of Russia (direct support to Iran), China (indirect support), and also Bharat (remains friendly, humanitarian, and neutral) - is overall a boost to the BRICS grouping. Of course the UAE is taking serious hits...trying to play in both western and BRICS playgrounds did not work...should listen to their "elder brother" Modi most closely. Bhai Indian culture bhi koi cheez hoti hai!

Thank You for your attention to this matter!

[KL Dubey]

Further:

Except that there is no real rival empire/alliance - economic or military - anywhere in the vicinity for decades ahead.

That's why the term "multipolar world" exists. The above is 20th century/Cold war thinking. As seen in the current conflict, Iran seems to have fought a 21st century war with a seemingly successful result so far. I thought these guys were just another tinpot regime when they lost their Mahamullah on day 1 already....but then a different picture emerged. Clearly this is not just a nation of jihadi mullahs, it has a civilizational substratum. Not to mention giants like Bharat and China.

[V_Raman]

I expected Iran to put up a good fight. Shah was the tinpot regime with elites oppressing the majority - and this is the legitimate govt of Iran - it is western propaganda to call it mullah regime.

But global empire is still just one - USA.

Bharat and China have earned good positions to not be messed with on a whim thats all. They can still be messed with if the intent is there.

Surprise for me is EU position - they can be messed with and cant do much - but that is brotherly between massa-EU - so is not material.

[KL Dubey]

Bharat and China have earned good positions to not be messed with on a whim thats all. They can still be messed with if the intent is there.

Most serious observers consider Bharat and China as status quo powers since last 2000 years, they don't need to "earn anything". Others come and go.

[KL Dubey]

...—so the rest of us can focus on the actual developments on the ground without the gatekeeping.

Enough is enough.

Uncle Tom's cabin has been given a starlink internet connection and plenty of meds, that's all.

[V_Raman]

Bharat and China have earned good positions to not be messed with on a whim thats all. They can still be messed with if the intent is there.

Most serious observers consider Bharat and China as status quo powers since last 2000 years, they don't need to "earn anything". Others come and go.

India was looted like there is no tomorrow till 1947. Others come and go is a mild way of accepting the thappad and politely moving on!

India is recovering I agree- but 2000 years - is a bit of a stretch.

Indian recovery is also unique in history were rest of the world powers are ok with it. Unique set of circumstances. If anything, India should move faster to fix its internal struggles as current environment may not last super long!

[Cain Marko]

The US domestic oil and Venezuelan supplies will increase with time, not reduce. This makes them less vulnerable. As for waiting for the US to leave and making deals, easier said than done.

That's a "penny-wise, pound-foolish" deal. Beyond the question of "oil supplies", a far more important outcome of this war (or "excursion" ) is the possible erosion (or accelerated end) of trust in the post-WW2 western-led "security" apparatus, which is also linked to trust in the western financial system and western fiat currencies. NATO is already in shambles after the Greenland shenanigans. Now, countries in Europe have basically refused to help in west Asia in order to cut their losses and break free of an increasingly "lost cause". Moreover, the Turks have proactively colluded with the Iranian state to liquidate an instigated kurdish "rebellion" on both sides of their border.

As I wrote before, the behavior of Russia (direct support to Iran), China (indirect support), and also Bharat (remains friendly, humanitarian, and neutral) - is overall a boost to the BRICS grouping. Of course the UAE is taking serious hits...trying to play in both western and BRICS playgrounds did not work...should listen to their "elder brother" Modi most closely. Bhai Indian culture bhi koi cheez hoti hai!

Thank You for your attention to this matter!

That last line gave me a coffee soil moment saar.

But I beg to disagree with overall thesis. The trust in the dollar was eroding in any case thanks to the US money printer Esp. After the fiasco with Russian reserves. Neverthelessi doing thick it'll be that easy to replace it with another reserve currency. No way the brics will consolidate on one. Although they might try other mechanisms.

Nato was also not serving US interests (it was quite the other way round).

The US is proactively heading off these future eventualities but securing pole position. You do this by securing and capturing oil and gas supplies. Alternate energy game had already been lost to China. But they will secure enough rem supplies thru Greenland or whatever other way for chips and such.

By causing a severe energy crisis the US ensures that it's competition is weakened considerably even if it means a small hit to their own economy. It also means that off shoring supply chains don't hold so much appeal anymore incentive near shoring and domestic production. The US comes out of this mess with a much bigger and probably unsurmountable lead.

I don't think it keeps it's hegemony, and it knows that. But it completely secures it's position as the dominant power by throwing the ROW under the bus. The Chinese will probably recover quickly. But that will hurt. A lot. India will also take a hit but thanks to it's geographic and geopolitical postponing it will turn around. Japan and soko especially will feel this. And the euros will burn (not only because of energy dependence but because of security dependence, the Russians and Turks will get theirs back).

Altogether it's a salvage operation and it's being carried out in the most cynical manner possible.

[Cain Marko]

Don't forget Canada and its super heavy tar/oil. There are built up pipelines that are ready to start, but waiting for a few decades now IIRC. Nothing like a war to bulldoze opposition from nativeamericans.

Yes I was forgetting. But do they have the capacity to refine that heavy stuff?

[Amber G.]

U.S. Army chief General Randy George gets marching orders. Told to retire immediately.

[uddu]

U.S. Army chief General Randy George gets marching orders. Told to retire immediately.

May be he is against deployment of troops to Iran and warned the leadership of the consequences.