West Asia Crisis — Discussion, Developments, and Bharat’s Strategy

[Vayutuvan]

Bulwark who?

[Vayutuvan]

JVL at The Bulwark:

Here are all of the war demands made (so far) by the president of these United States.

February 28: “Our objective is to defend the American people by eliminating imminent threats from the Iranian regime, a vicious group of very hard, terrible people. Its menacing activities directly endanger the United States, our troops, our bases overseas, and our allies throughout the world. . . .

“[T]o the great proud people of Iran, I say tonight that the hour of your freedom is at hand. Stay sheltered. Don’t leave your home. It’s very dangerous outside. Bombs will be dropping everywhere. When we are finished, take over your government. It will be yours to take. This will be probably your only chance for generations.”

March 2: “I don’t want to see it go on too long. I always thought it would be four weeks. And we’re a little ahead of schedule.”

March 4: “One of the things I’m going to be asking for is the ability to work with them on choosing a new leader. . . . I’m not going through this to end up with another Khamenei. I want to be involved in the selection.”

March 5: “We want to go in and clean out everything. . . . We don’t want someone who would rebuild over a ten-year period.”

March 5: “They are …

What the hey! Such a long quote - from Bulwark (who?!)

[chetak]

skumar ji,

Here, it's called vote bank politics

trump's approval ratings are almost subterranean and he really needs to burnish his much dented and badly corroded halo

The strategic cause of the war is based on egomania - Bibi promises him a victory and a place in history that no US president has had after WW2. His overall approval ratings plunged during the course of the last 6 weeks - it was not great but manageable.

The tactical reason for sending 100+ special forces into a mission to save 1 officer is the thing that does not make sense unless it was combined with another greater objective of retrieval. Probably retrieval was the original mission and it degraded into a CSAR with initial hiccups. Shiv Aroor makes a similar case.

[youtube]EFSH2eerYE4[youtube]

skumar ji,


Per media reports, the cost of the operation was over $300 million by conservative estimates and the "reported" damage to the amrikis was 2X C-130 transports, 2X blackhawk helos, 1X A-10, and the many tens of fighters providing serious air cover, backed by aerial tankers, satellite assets that tracked and pinpointed the location of the downed WSO, and not to mention the several hundred special forces involved

All this would have pushed the cost estimates closer to $500 million, give or take

This level of effort is not merely tactics and strategy, but could be better described as insanity, given the declared objective of rescuing one WSO, which could have been done using far lesser number assets and effort

Ergo, there may have been another bigger military operation in play, one that was being run in the background, while the amrikis true objective was masked by the "for prime time TV" narrative of the downed WSO

The amrikis say that "fierce" firefights took place but not a single amriki KIA is admitted.

If this were a bollywood movie, even the thick skinned khan gang would have been too embarrassed to play any part in it


BTW, the amrikis and the pakis would never admit to the IAF shooting down the F-16, but the eyeraanians can shoot down any number of F-15s, A-10s, blackhawk helos, F-35s, AEW and tanker aircraft and the amrikis are OK with that and so are the effing pakis

The pakis, using various pretences, refuse to come to the aid of the desperate saudis, despite having a signed defence agreement with them all because the paki jernails are schitt scared about the paki army, navy and the air force getting publicly exposed for the utter incompetents that they are.

the pakis are not a fighting force, they are more like alibaba and the forty thieves, using jets to bomb and genocide the baloch and the afghans

The paki jernails are simply too afraid of the eyeraanians to risk offending them in any way because, if push came to shove, the paki forces cannot take them on and still survive as a schitthole of a country, and cheen will never come to their aid against the eyeraanians, and the less said about turkey, the better

pak's blind dependence on madrasa based geopolitical analysis along with quintuplet n@m@z driven threat perception that long ago, since even before 1947, solidified into a India hatred policy that shaped their worldview and dictated their national policies and forced them to seek opportunistic alliances that were designed to hurt India has led to their disgraceful downfall. The very ummah that they seek to dominate and lead as some sort of caliphate, sees the pakis as very bad news

today, a majority of these paki puncher wallas don't really blame India for their troubles because they have access to media and internet but that doctrinal hatred and jealousy that corrodes their outlook towards India will never fade and that dominates their lives, as well as, destroying their mental balance

When all this ummah imbroglio has finally been done and dusted, it would be very interesting to see how many numbers of paki labour and paki construction companies would be involved in the rebuilding process of the GCC countries

[S_Madhukar]

Aadi Achint and Col Raina have hypothesised that the op was to grab the nook or do a proper recce/ land grab before inserting more troops but the downing of the F15 meant they either got exposed or the AD woke up and a skirmish happened , so they had to abandon the op

[pravula]

Per media reports, the cost of the operation was over $300 million by conservative estimates and the "reported" damage to the amrikis was 2X C-130 transports, 2X blackhawk helos, 1X A-10, and the many tens of fighters providing serious air cover, backed by aerial tankers, satellite assets that tracked and pinpointed the location of the downed WSO, and not to mention the several hundred special forces involved

What Blackhawk helos? Did you mean little birds?

[chetak]

Per media reports, the cost of the operation was over $300 million by conservative estimates and the "reported" damage to the amrikis was 2X C-130 transports, 2X blackhawk helos, 1X A-10, and the many tens of fighters providing serious air cover, backed by aerial tankers, satellite assets that tracked and pinpointed the location of the downed WSO, and not to mention the several hundred special forces involved

What Blackhawk helos? Did you mean little birds?

pravula ji,

Absolute humiliation for the US military.

Former CIA Officer Larry Johnson reveals Iran shot down an F-15, two Blackhawks, two C-130s, four Little Birds, and an A-10 Warthog in a single day.

400 million dollars of US aircraft completely destroyed!

watch video



https://x.com/i/status/2040934417380852097

[A_Gupta]

Some buzz that the UK is now - April 7th - denying the US use of bases and airspace for anything to do with bombing of Iran; specifically Diego Garcia.
I'm not able to confirm.

[A_Gupta]

Donald Trump
@realDonaldTrump • Truth Social icon Truth Social
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View on Truth Social
A whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again. I don’t want that to happen, but it probably will. However, now that we have Complete and Total Regime Change, where different, smarter, and less radicalized minds prevail, maybe something revolutionarily wonderful can happen, WHO KNOWS? We will find out tonight, one of the most important moments in the long and complex history of the World. 47 years of extortion, corruption, and death, will finally end. God Bless the Great People of Iran!

[Tanaji]

This whole thing is wild:

Trump makes bombastic statements
Iran says we are not in communication with US and no discussions ongoing
Trump or US officials say discussions are positive or they have given me presents
Loop back to start

[uddu]

Donald Trump
@realDonaldTrump • Truth Social icon Truth Social
Truth Social icon
View on Truth Social
A whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again. I don’t want that to happen, but it probably will. However, now that we have Complete and Total Regime Change, where different, smarter, and less radicalized minds prevail, maybe something revolutionarily wonderful can happen, WHO KNOWS? We will find out tonight, one of the most important moments in the long and complex history of the World. 47 years of extortion, corruption, and death, will finally end. God Bless the Great People of Iran!

A civilization is under siege by theocracy and Trump wants to destroy the Civilization.

[A_Gupta]

Trump has made a threat of genocide.

[bala]

Nothing new, compared to how the combined west rampaged the world with colonial conquest and wiped out many existing civilization and thrust their demented beliefs on many at the tip of the sword. Similar to the Islamic conquest previously. The Britshits killed 200 million in worldwide holocaust during the britshit rule of the world and a majority of Indians died in famines/wars. US dropped 2 nuke devices on Japan. El Presidente Biden, who kept forgeting his name every day, caused the Ukraine war to flair up and 100,000s died. Yes, this is the cost of western civilization on the rest of the world.

[uddu]

Can West be called a civilization or Western Theocracy? In God We Trust. Which God? One and only god, all others are Pagan.

[sanjaykumar]

One must understand the cultural context and the historical perspective.

This is a biblical war, they are fighting the Amaleks. It is sanctioned by god as were the other actions recorded in the Old Testament.


Just as Islam has concepts of righteous war, so does the other side.

Atheists and Hindus/Buddhists should keep out of this family squabble. Relax your turn will come soon enough.

The 'Britshits' are some of the sanest people I know. They are mostly post religion and a committed welfare state. Cut them some slack.

[Cain Marko]

For people complaining about how badly the US is performing, I'd like to know how many other countries can keep up this tempo of operations for over a month and not lose a single pilot to enemy fire. 13000+ sorties as per Gemini!
Pilots lost= Zero. The rest is copium.

[Amber G.]

Retired US General Mark Hertling confirms military commanders are actively preparing to defy Donald Trump.
“They are bound by the Constitution to disobey unlawful orders to bomb Iranian civilians.”
---

[bala]

For people complaining about how badly the US is performing

The WhineFest is really about DJT sound bites which pisses of many in this forum. Let him blabber whatever since all El Presidente of US are hollywood cutouts. The previous guy could not remember any names or where he was at any time. The rest of the presidentes are really front-end spokeperson. The US Deep State has competent people behind the scenes and the armed forces are okay, though there are some SNAFUs (situation normal all f ed up). The CIA is also quite deft. Israel is another sphere unto itself in terms of intelligence and execution. No other nation except say US can run such campaigns with a few misses here and there. But the media stupid heads (you have to be lunatic to interact with their silly questions!) write all kinds of nonsense pieces and waste everyone's time. Is there one newsoutlet which gives the correct picture happening on the ground? They are all flimsy junk.

[A_Gupta]

For people complaining about how badly the US is performing, I'd like to know how many other countries can keep up this tempo of operations for over a month and not lose a single pilot to enemy fire. 13000+ sorties as per Gemini!
Pilots lost= Zero. The rest is copium.

Is anyone seriously complaining about the performance of the US military?

It is the strategic, political, economic, diplomatic/alliance fronts that people are complaining about.

[Amber G.]

Latest U.S. President Donald Trump says Iran has sent 'workable' 10-point proposal

Iran-Israel war LIVE: Trump agrees to suspend attack on Iran by two weeks




Iran's Supreme National Security Council confirms ceasefire deal

[ShauryaT]

Pakistan name in the mix is a heartburn.

[ShauryaT]

Trump has made a threat of genocide.

At the end of the day, these ops are about a nuclear Iran. India's inability to act against Pakistan in the 80's and S. Korea's inability to act has bought both permanent enemies that have bought an insurance card to derail progress. Israel, after October 7, will do whatever it takes to avoid that predicament. Quite frankly, whatever it takes for a mullah led country to not have these weapons is welcome.

[Lisa]

Wow! Trump succeeded! Soothsayers/Liberals can eat crow.

[Yayavar]

Trump succeeded in stopping what he started. At present no one knows if he or netanyahu will start again. Let us see.

[Amber G.]

Wow!

Iran's state media says US has accepted 10-point conditions proposed by Iranian govt - Also DJT in his post says he agreed to these demands. . TOTAL Climbdown by this person. (Although even after total humiliation his brainwashed worshippers and he will be still say he won.!

THE TEN POINTS ARE:


Non-aggression

Continuation of Iran's control over the Strait of Hormuz

Acceptance of enrichment

Lifting all primary sanctions

Lifting all secondary sanctions

Termination of all UN Security Council resolutions

Termination of all IAEA Board of Governors resolutions

Payment of compensation to Iran

Withdrawal of US combat forces from the region

Cessation of war on all fronts, including against the heroic Islamic Resistance of Lebanon.

[Amber G.]

Posting for record:

[Amber G.]

While DJT Thanks Munir and gang.. just heard on TV -- from Bibi Netanyahu thanking India, and Modi for bringing this halt in fighting..(from his own mouth).! (Israel agrees to two week cease fire with Iran)

[ShauryaT]

Wow!

Iran's state media says US has accepted 10-point conditions proposed by Iranian govt - Also DJT in his post says he agreed to these demands. . TOTAL Climbdown by this person. (Although even after total humiliation his brainwashed worshippers and he will be still say he won.!

Which DJT post accepts the 10 points? Could not find it.

[uddu]

There is nothing for Terroristan in it other than repeat what their masters say. This is direct talks between U.S and Iran using Terroristan as a cover so DJT can hide his surrender. Even the draft of what need posted in X comes directly from the U.S.
https://x.com/ShivAroor/status/2041614184685924806
@ShivAroor
LMAO! Pak PM @CMShehbaz accidentally posts tweet along with what looks like a White House instruction as a header.

[Dasari]

Wow!

Iran's state media says US has accepted 10-point conditions proposed by Iranian govt - Also DJT in his post says he agreed to these demands. . TOTAL Climbdown by this person. (Although even after total humiliation his brainwashed worshippers and he will be still say he won.!

Which DJT post accepts the 10 points? Could not find it.

Here is the full statement of Trump on Truth Social:

“Based on conversations with Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Field Marshal Asim Munir, of Pakistan, and wherein they requested that I hold off the destructive force being sent tonight to Iran, and subject to the Islamic Republic of Iran agreeing to the COMPLETE, IMMEDIATE, and SAFE OPENING of the Strait of Hormuz, I agree to suspend the bombing and attack of Iran for a period of two weeks. This will be a double-sided CEASEFIRE!

The reason for doing so is that we have already met and exceeded all Military objectives, and are very far along with a definitive Agreement concerning Longterm PEACE with Iran, and PEACE in the Middle East.

We received a 10-point proposal from Iran, and believe it is a workable basis on which to negotiate. Almost all of the various points of past contention have been agreed to between the United States and Iran, but a two-week period will allow the Agreement to be finalised and consummated. On behalf of the United States of America, as President, and also representing the Countries of the Middle East, it is an Honor to have this Longterm problem close to resolution. Thank you for your attention to this matter! President DONALD J. TRUMP”.

[Dasari]

He agreed that Iran’s 10 point demand can be negotiated. This is the reason why IRGC claiming full victory. Looks like Trump got tired and wants to get out of this nightmare.

[Amber G.]

Which DJT post accepts the 10 points? Could not find it.

Just see DJT's truth socilal post posted I posted above (10 th line from top) or Iran statement (also posted by me - second para 5th line)..

It is all over the news.... but no surprise - Trump blames CNN for 'alleged statement' which is Fraud , blows up and then himself (re)tweets (or truths) IRAN statement saying 'this is real one ' to which we have agreed and the IRAN statement .

[ShauryaT]

OK, that Truth post is an image of the Iran FM post. Does not mean, he has accepted the 10 points or even considering it. I think it is a stretch to think Trump has accepted the 10 points. It simply was to post the official acceptance of the ceasefire by Iran too. There was some speculation that Iran had not. Having said that, the attacks from both sides have not stopped?

[bala]

The bigger news is US (and Israel) met and exceeded all military objectives. The 10 point or whatever is a basis for further negotiation. Enrichment of uranium has been effectively demolished by Israel and US. Hormuz will freely allow all traffic and Iran cannot do much on that since other nations are dependent on oil and gas flow. 2 weeks is a lull period and if Iran does not submit to all demands by the US it will be back to square A. The damage done by deep bombing has set Iran back somewhat and it will be hard to recoup those losses in quick time. Most of the top Leadership has been bumped off by Israel. US is deporting all IRGC relatives in the US.

[Kakkaji]

The Pakis will be more insufferable than ever over the next few months.

[ricky_v]

Taking snide comments from the sidelines against someone who is actually doing some work is one of the most pathetic traits of humans. Now rage frothing at the mouth at the mere mention of Pakistan is a mood that I vibe to well, but sj erred in his innate need to give a sounbite to the media people. I sometimes think that the memes are getting to him which mars his good work undertaken silently and in the shadows.

Pakistan put itself out there, regardless of the outcome, they undertook an act; I think there is an Indian text that argues for the same but its name escapes me, oh well, I will wait for its public popularity when euro historians explain it in today's English.

This is all of course not considering the fact that in 2046, "ultra-nationalists" on $hitter (formerly X) will uncover secret unredacted documents that will show that the ceasefire was actually accomplished by India.

[Cain Marko]

This is all of course not considering the fact that in 2046, "ultra-nationalists" on $hitter (formerly X) will uncover secret unredacted documents that will show that the ceasefire was actually accomplished by India.

This is already happening no? Someone posted a tweet in one of these threads about how Bibi is thanking India for the deal?

[S_Madhukar]

Rickyji, I agree with SJ that Bakis are a dalal. At least he did not call them a pimp which is more accurate.
India has played its role in securing what it needs and has no business in Abrahamic wars. Even if India proposed a great deal Ummah will not like to credit us considering we are considered close to Israel.
So let Bakis live to fight another day with some more IMF $ and let us hasten our development path.

[ricky_v]

Madhukar ji, I agree that India should have not got into any dealmaking or even any faux statesman grandeurship, one pm has been more than enough for several lifetimes.

My point is the hyena like pack mocking of anyone who is actively engaged in ending a potential catastrophe. It could have resulted to nought, and we don't know what the pakis made from it. SJ could have simply stated the boilerplate that war bad, talking to all sides on, India advocate of dialogue over conflict, ityadi.

Doesn't change much and in this scenario now the Indian eam does not look like a hawklike lunatic, jealous of anyone thinking of ending the conflict, as will be pointed out in the next coming days or hours.

[A_Gupta]

Iran says Lebanon is part of ceasefire; Netanyahu says no.

[A_Gupta]

1. The ceasefire is welcome, good news. (India with its trade and labor ties with the GCC states needs the fighting to stop.)

2. Why I take SJ's remarks about Pakistan being a dalal as justified from the moment I heard them, is because there are three parties to this conflict - the US, Iran and Israel. The Trump administration in practice does not exercise much control on Israel, no matter how much control is theoretically possible. So Pakistan has to deliver three parties to any peace deal and it cannot deliver Israel.

3. Already the first crack in the ceasefire has shown up - Israel says Lebanon is not included in the ceasefire. ("Four hours after US President Donald Trump’s announcement, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office issues a statement welcoming the ceasefire between the US and Iran, while stressing that it does not cover Lebanon despite Pakistani mediators’ claims to the contrary. - Times of Israel). Iran also says so "...the cessation of war on all fronts, including against Hezbollah in Lebanon".

It remains to be seen if Trump reins in the Israelis in Lebanon; or Iran chooses to ignore Israeli actions in Lebanon for two weeks.

4. If Israeli representation comes to Islamabad, I will not grudge any peace deal to be termed "The Islamabad Accords", and Munir, Sharif and Trump be nominated for the meaningless Nobel Peace Prize.

My guess is that if there are face to face negotiations, they will be in Egypt, Oman or Türkiye, not in Pakistan.