Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

[Vayutuvan]

That is expensive. ~USD 7000. Probably makes sense in CA. In India, electricity is very expensive, as I found recently.

Two split a/cs, two < 40" TVs, lights/fans, washing machine, medium sized fridge just for two retired people - monthty bill upwards of INR 20K. That is insane. I get the same bill (P&G) in the US for an independent house that is 3-3.5x that too in the American midwest where winters are quite cold and summers quite hot.

[bala]

Vayu ji you may want to bring electricity down to zero
bill is now 0 used to be 6k according to below!

https://x.com/prasannavishy/status/2031182450047726047

[vera_k]

That price includes a lot of US premium surely.

Something's wrong with that electricity bill - maybe someone's stealing electricity? We have 5 3 star A/Cs with 6 tons of cooling, a double door 26 cf fridge, electric tankless water heaters, dishwasher, washer/dryer and the electricity bill has not exceeded INR 6K ever. That's including the little bit of surcharge charged for having a 18KW residential connection instead of the standard 5KW.

[Vayutuvan]

Vayu ji you may want to bring electricity down to zero
bill is now 0 used to be 6k according to below!

https://x.com/prasannavishy/status/2031182450047726047

It is a flat in a co-op society in Navi Mumbai. Not mine.

[Vayutuvan]

That price includes a lot of US premium surely.

Something's wrong with that electricity bill - maybe someone's stealing electricity? We have 5 3 star A/Cs with 6 tons of cooling, a double door 26 cf fridge, electric tankless water heaters, dishwasher, washer/dryer and the electricity bill has not exceeded INR 6K ever. That's including the little bit of surcharge charged for having a 18KW residential connection instead of the standard 5KW.

In which state and which city?

This bill is during peak summer. Levelized plan is coming to INR 12K (which is a lot - ~USD 130 PM).

I spent about a month in India going to multiple places. Very disappointing - pollution, traffic congestion, and the general mahaul.

[vera_k]

Smaller town between Mumbai and Pune. All of the equipment is newer and was bought with an eye on efficiency.

[Vayutuvan]

A small town between Mumbai and Pune. Sweet.

[ritesh]

That price includes a lot of US premium surely.

Something's wrong with that electricity bill - maybe someone's stealing electricity? We have 5 3 star A/Cs with 6 tons of cooling, a double door 26 cf fridge, electric tankless water heaters, dishwasher, washer/dryer and the electricity bill has not exceeded INR 6K ever. That's including the little bit of surcharge charged for having a 18KW residential connection instead of the standard 5KW.

If provider is MSEB, then it's simply cross-subsidy thing.
We had very bad experience with them.

A decade ago, when we shifted from BEST to MSEB, our electricity bil overnight increased 2.5X.

And the worst thing is, there is no recourse as well.

[A_Gupta]

Following the GDP base year revision fiscal deficit ratios were adjusted slightly upward compared with earlier estimates. The updated deficit percentages reflect recalculations using the revised GDP figures.

The new figures are,

FY 2022-23: 6.7% of GDP
FY 2023-24: 5.7% of GDP
FY 2024-25: 4.9% of GDP
Earlier estimates had put up the deficit at 6.4% for FY23, 5.63% for FY24 and 4.8% for FY25.

Via: https://currentaffairs.adda247.com/gove ... ar-update/

[A_Gupta]

The ongoing conflict in West Asia has begun to affect the textile industry in Bhilwara, Rajasthan, with export orders being stalled and trade disruptions impacting shipments worth around Rs 800 to Rs 1000 crore, industry representative said.

Via: https://m.economictimes.com/industry/co ... 495807.cms

[A_Gupta]

https://m.economictimes.com/news/econom ... 455295.cms

HFDC Bank says each 10% rise in oil price can shave 20-25 bps from India’s GDP growth.

[A_Gupta]

“The Goldilocks narrative of strong growth and low inflation persists under the new GDP and CPI series, but is challenged by higher crude oil prices and fuel shortages,” Nomura economists Sonal Varma and Aurodeep Nandi said in a note on Wednesday.

[drnayar]

https://infra.economictimes.indiatimes. ... /129586239

HD Korea Shipbuilding & Offshore Engineering (HD KSOE), the holding company of South Korea’s HD Hyundai's shipbuilding and offshore division, is working out the finer details of a plan to set up a $4 billion greenfield shipyard on its own at Thoothukudi in Tamil Nadu with a capacity to produce 3.5 to 4 million gross tonnage (GT) a year.

The scale of ambition of the world’s biggest shipbuilder for the Thoothukudi yard should be seen from the context of the government’s assessment that all the proposed 3-4 shipbuilding clusters, spread across Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Gujarat and Maharashtra or Odisha, put together will produce about 4-4.5 million GT, a government source with knowledge of the discussions said.

“What we had proposed was that all the 3-4 shipbuilding clusters put together will do 4-4.5 million GT but what HD Hyundai is planning is they will themselves do 4 million GT. That will be huge,” the source said.

India aims to be in the top 10 in ship ownership and shipbuilding by 2030 and in the top five by 2047. Thus, by 2047, India needs to increase its ship ownership seven times to 100 million GT and shipbuilding output 40-times to 4.5 million GT by 2037.

[uddu]

Crude will pick up this month
https://x.com/CNBCTV18Live/status/2034959004770996619
@CNBCTV18Live
#JustIn | Feb Core Sector Data;

India Feb Eight Core Industries Growth At 2.3% Vs 4% (MoM)

[KL Dubey]

Fascination with koila-tel-paad is biting now. Better double down on renewable energy to cushion future shocks. Modi sarkar's direction is correct.

[uddu]

Fascination with koila-tel-paad is biting now. Better double down on renewable energy to cushion future shocks. Modi sarkar's direction is correct.

Coal to Methanol to DME need to be looked into as well. Nothing should be left out to be useless.

[uddu]

https://x.com/i/status/2035044365513773306
@rishibagree
Destroyed India critics in just 5 mins :

India isn’t an option - it’s the new benchmark.

A London-based fund manager just ended the debate.

[KL Dubey]

Fascination with koila-tel-paad is biting now. Better double down on renewable energy to cushion future shocks. Modi sarkar's direction is correct.

Coal to Methanol to DME need to be looked into as well. Nothing should be left out to be useless.

These have been "looked into" since a long time ago. Coal to liquid fuels (Fischer-Tropsch) was used in Nazi Germany and then later in apartheid South Africa, where Sasol is still doing it. These are desperate options only when there is nothing else available, and are also just as expensive (or worse). As for coal to DME, it is also expensive (see detailed analysis of Indonesia, easily found on internet).

In case of Bharat, koila is already a critical transitional resource of the fossil electricity to renewable electricity transition. Diverting koila to CTL technologies on a large scale will cause havoc just when the sarkar is working on renewable power. Vast increase in koila production is not feasible either. At best we could use DME as a 10-15% blendstock with LPG. It will not reduce cost but could ease supply temporarily. Not sure if this is worth the expense, given that LPG is also a transitional domestic-use fuel.

If one wants to use more koila for energy for the next few years, the most efficient and cheap option is to generate more koila power (thermal power plants are already available) and promote electric cooking stoves for businesses/hotels/restaurants, etc. That will free up a lot of LPG for domestic/household cooking, and in the meanwhile promote piped natural gas for new constructions.

[Suraj]

[Amber G.]

Coal to Methanol to DME need to be looked into as well. Nothing should be left out to be useless.

These have been "looked into" since a long time ago. Coal to liquid fuels (Fischer-Tropsch) was used in Nazi Germany and then later in apartheid South Africa, where Sasol is still doing it. These are desperate options only when there is nothing else available, and are also just as expensive (or worse). As for coal to DME, it is also expensive (see detailed analysis of Indonesia, easily found on internet).

In case of Bharat, koila is already a critical transitional resource of the fossil electricity to renewable electricity transition. Diverting koila to CTL technologies on a large scale will cause havoc just when the sarkar is working on renewable power. Vast increase in koila production is not feasible either. At best we could use DME as a 10-15% blendstock with LPG. It will not reduce cost but could ease supply temporarily. Not sure if this is worth the expense, given that LPG is also a transitional domestic-use fuel.

If one wants to use more koila for energy for the next few years, the most efficient and cheap option is to generate more koila power (thermal power plants are already available) and promote electric cooking stoves for businesses/hotels/restaurants, etc. That will free up a lot of LPG for domestic/household cooking, and in the meanwhile promote piped natural gas for new constructions.

Thank you for a well-reasoned and historically grounded analysis. It is refreshing to see the 'Coal-to-X' debate framed not just as a technical possibility, but through the lens of economic reality and historical necessity (the Sasol and WWII examples are particularly poignant 'reality checks'). You’ve explained the cost of diverting koila away from the grid very clearly—it's a perspective often lost in purely tech-optimistic circles.

Your argument that thermal power + electric stoves is both technically and economically superior to the coal-to-liquid path to be incredibly sound. It seems much more logical to use our existing power infrastructure than to build expensive, specialized chemical refineries for a transitional fuel like DME.

I have a couple of follow-up questions about shift toward the 'Electric Kitchen' for Bharat. - if you have chance reply:

1. As the sarkar pushes for mass adoption of induction and electric cooking, do you see our local distribution grids (the 'last mile' transformers) being able to handle the simultaneous load during peak morning/evening cooking hours?

2. The 'Roti' Factor - Beyond the economics, do you think a specialized 'Electric Roti Maker' or hybrid technology is needed to bridge the cultural gap for Indian households that are used to open-flame cooking?

3. In your view, what is the single biggest hurdle preventing the government from pivoting 100% of the LPG subsidy toward induction stove distribution right now?

Thank you in advance for your insights.

[SivaR]

Our local electricity distribution is in poor state, since the state SEB's are bankrupt. Also most of our kitchens are not fitted with high power electric sockets that induction stoves need (1.5Kw). Another issue with induction stove, in case it gets wet it gets repair easily, with Indian cooking it happens frequently.
In a parallel note, We need to understand why electric vehicles have not become popular in our country, India is a ideal country for electric two wheeler, since we are the largest two wheeler user in the world and two wheelers need very small battery pack, but our governments doesn't like the electrification due to tax losses from petroleum products. Also the housing associations doesn't allow individual chargers in the apartments, till now the government has not resolved this issue by allowing individual chargers by law and this is a major obstacle in the adaption of ev cars. These are our internal issues and can be resolved in a stroke but the conflicts of interest keeps them alive.

[chetak]

Our local electricity distribution is in poor state, since the state SEB's are bankrupt. Also most of our kitchens are not fitted with high power electric sockets that induction stoves need (1.5Kw). Another issue with induction stove, in case it gets wet it gets repair easily, with Indian cooking it happens frequently.
In a parallel note, We need to understand why electric vehicles have not become popular in our country, India is a ideal country for electric two wheeler, since we are the largest two wheeler user in the world and two wheelers need very small battery pack, but our governments doesn't like the electrification due to tax losses from petroleum products. Also the housing associations doesn't allow individual chargers in the apartments, till now the government has not resolved this issue by allowing individual chargers by law and this is a major obstacle in the adaption of ev cars. These are our internal issues and can be resolved in a stroke but the conflicts of interest keeps them alive.

SivaR ji,

idiot politicos, and for the longest time, have all ganged up and exploited the "advantages" of free electricity for garnering votes, like the electricity was their inherited family wealth that they are so generously distributing to the public at large, knowing full well that someone else, in a few years time, is going to be staring at the huge and increasing mountain of debt and kicking that can of worms down the road for the next govt to handle

look at the free bus rides that the women in some congi states are enjoying.

Recently, in one congi state, the fares for the men have doubled, while the women continue to travel for free, meaning that, each male in the family is effectively back to paying the bus fares for their women too

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/ne ... s?from=mdr

[uddu]

look at the free bus rides that the women in some congi states are enjoying.

Recently, in one congi state, the fares for the men have doubled, while the women continue to travel for free, meaning that, each male in the family is effectively back to paying the bus fares for their women too

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/ne ... s?from=mdr

Chetakji, add to that the doubling of Metro fares. Which increased for everyone from youngsters, to oldies.
Then there is this high petrol and diesel prices compared to BJP ruled states making the people pay more for daily commute using own vehicle and also higher amount for all the items they purchase.
Then every aspect from Milk, water, electricity to taxes is increased. Above that corruption at all time high. Crime also increasing.
In Kerala, communists came to power offering Rs.500 kit for Onam. Then after that, there are no items available at lower cost for each family at the Maveli Civil supplies store. So people start losing around savings of 500 per month. Totaling about 6000 per annum and 30,000 in 5 years. So overall loss at 29,500.

[vera_k]

Cost is an issue for transition to electricity in many unanticipated ways.

That means cost for both the equipment (2 wheelers/cars, water heaters and cooktops), infrastructure like adding higher power sockets or charging points, upgrading connections provided by the state SEB, and finally the electricity tariff.

Upgrading connections takes a long time, and requires under the table payment. This should be streamlined for existing homes so upgrades can happen without needing unaccounted payment to the SEB, and default specification for new homes must be a higher grade connection.

Reddit has threads where people are computing the equivalent cost of LPG versus electricity. If the electricity tariff is high, it is likely there will be reversion to using LPG or other fossil fuels soon enough.

[Vayutuvan]

Household electricity prices worldwide in 4th quarter 2025, by country
(in U.S. dollars per kilowatt-hour)

https://www.statista.com/statistics/263 ... countries/

US 0.18
India 0.08
China 0.08
...

Compare that with Per Capita GDP (PPP Basis - From Wikipedia - IMF 2026)

World: 25,591
United States : 92,883
India: 12,964
China: 31,023

Electricity Prices
US:India :: 0.18/0.08 (Ratio 2.25)
China:India :: 0.08:0.08 (Ratio 1.0)

GDP
US:India :: 92,883:12,964 (Ratio 7.16)
China:India :: 31,023:12964 (Ratio 2.39)

Indians pay 3.2 times more than the US and 2.4 times more than the Chinese after taking PPP into account.

Nominal figures would be worse. They are 15 and 10 times, respectively, vis-à-vis
the US and China.

[S_Madhukar]

If fuel prices go up then like Covid expect the deliberate crowding of public transportation buses and railways and ticketless travel in 1st class, metro, AC etc. Ganduian only

[drnayar]

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/25/busi ... e-won.html

Asia Is Getting Crushed Between Oil Prices and the Dollar
From India to Southeast Asia to South Korea, currencies are crumbling as governments race to secure fuel that is priced in American money.

Is this why the INR is still in free fall

[drnayar]

https://energy.economictimes.indiatimes ... -iran-war/

Drill India drill: Iran war triggers India's boldest hunt for oil

Following the Iran war, India is accelerating its pursuit of energy self-reliance, exemplified by ONGC's $20 billion deepwater drilling initiative.

[vera_k]

Global oil price stuck in triple digits. Goldman Sachs says it may stay there for years

In the worst-case scenario, the bank estimated that Brent prices would be around $111 per barrel by the fourth quarter of 2027 if oil supply through the strait remained very low for over two months and production stayed at 2 million barrels per day after reopening.

[drnayar]

https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/busin ... 75479.html


India cancels 11 critical mineral block auctions after weak investor response

[drnayar]

https://www.marketscreener.com/news/ind ... dfda8df42d

India does not plan to go ahead with auctioning deep-sea mining rights due to a lack of technological preparedness and expectations of a weak response from potential bidders, two sources familiar with the matter told Reuters

[uddu]

Cross posting from Modi 3.0
https://x.com/MeghUpdates/status/2039289484764758458
@MeghUpdates
Under the Modi Govt, the Indian economy is defying the odds!
GST collection are proving it.
Despite the massive GST rate cut in September, India's GST collections are booming.

March 2026: ₹2 Lakh Crore (+8.8%)
FY26 Total: ₹22.27 Lakh Crore (+8.3%)

While the whole world is slowing down, India is marching forward.

[uddu]

These have been "looked into" since a long time ago. Coal to liquid fuels (Fischer-Tropsch) was used in Nazi Germany and then later in apartheid South Africa, where Sasol is still doing it. These are desperate options only when there is nothing else available, and are also just as expensive (or worse). As for coal to DME, it is also expensive (see detailed analysis of Indonesia, easily found on internet).

In case of Bharat, koila is already a critical transitional resource of the fossil electricity to renewable electricity transition. Diverting koila to CTL technologies on a large scale will cause havoc just when the sarkar is working on renewable power. Vast increase in koila production is not feasible either. At best we could use DME as a 10-15% blendstock with LPG. It will not reduce cost but could ease supply temporarily. Not sure if this is worth the expense, given that LPG is also a transitional domestic-use fuel.

If one wants to use more koila for energy for the next few years, the most efficient and cheap option is to generate more koila power (thermal power plants are already available) and promote electric cooking stoves for businesses/hotels/restaurants, etc. That will free up a lot of LPG for domestic/household cooking, and in the meanwhile promote piped natural gas for new constructions.

Thank you for a well-reasoned and historically grounded analysis. It is refreshing to see the 'Coal-to-X' debate framed not just as a technical possibility, but through the lens of economic reality and historical necessity (the Sasol and WWII examples are particularly poignant 'reality checks'). You’ve explained the cost of diverting koila away from the grid very clearly—it's a perspective often lost in purely tech-optimistic circles.

Your argument that thermal power + electric stoves is both technically and economically superior to the coal-to-liquid path to be incredibly sound. It seems much more logical to use our existing power infrastructure than to build expensive, specialized chemical refineries for a transitional fuel like DME.

I have a couple of follow-up questions about shift toward the 'Electric Kitchen' for Bharat. - if you have chance reply:

1. As the sarkar pushes for mass adoption of induction and electric cooking, do you see our local distribution grids (the 'last mile' transformers) being able to handle the simultaneous load during peak morning/evening cooking hours?

2. The 'Roti' Factor - Beyond the economics, do you think a specialized 'Electric Roti Maker' or hybrid technology is needed to bridge the cultural gap for Indian households that are used to open-flame cooking?

3. In your view, what is the single biggest hurdle preventing the government from pivoting 100% of the LPG subsidy toward induction stove distribution right now?

Thank you in advance for your insights.

Some experimentation is going on.
Modi Govt Pushes Coal Gasification To Cut India's Energy Imports Amid Iran War Supply Shocks

[uddu]

https://x.com/sanjeevsanyal/status/2039752553748144593
@sanjeevsanyal
This is an obvious point, but worth making. Even within countries, the poor have more children than the rich.

https://x.com/ArthurMacwaters/status/20 ... 0605538428
@ArthurMacwaters
the belief that birth rate is going down because of cost of living is statistically false

birth rate drops most after countries become affluent

it’s a self-defeating mechanism

this is the final boss of civilization and has not yet been beaten

[drnayar]

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/wp-con ... g-WEB.webp

[Vayutuvan]

^ India is more expensive than China if normalized for the difference in monthly income. How do the PPP figures compare or is the monthly income is already PPP based?

[drnayar]

https://x.com/KiranKS/status/2041903536787878353

[uddu]

https://x.com/mamidala90/status/2042156 ... mamidala90
“India now 5th largest exporter of services. India’s rise in global services trade has been steady: from 11th in 2005 to 7th in 2015, and 5th in 2024. With export volumes now rivalling Germany’s, the story is not just about scale, but of a clear repositioning in the global services economy.”

Courtesy: The Times of India