Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

[g.sarkar]

https://www.telegraphindia.com/world/be ... id/2159663
Beijing claims its engineers helped guide Pakistan’s jets that ‘brought down India’s Rafale’
Chinese technicians worked side by side with Pakistan, Beijing hails ‘combat success’ of its J-10CE fighter against elite French-built jet
Paran Balakrishnan, 08.05.26
Chinese engineers have said they worked at an airbase alongside the Pakistan Air Force, helping guide the China-made J-10CE jets that “shot down an Indian Air Force Rafale” fighter during the four-day war last May.
Zhang Heng, an engineer from the Chengdu Aircraft Design and Research Institute, told China’s state broadcaster that the onsite team wanted to ensure their equipment could “truly perform at its full combat potential”.
The Chinese were clearly triumphant that their aircraft had performed to expectations and been able to bring down a highly rated French-made fighter like the Rafale, one of the world’s most advanced combat aircraft.
It would be the first recorded combat loss of a Rafale aircraft, if true. India has admitted losses but never confirmed damages.
The Chinese involvement, confirmed publicly by Chinese state media for the first time, underlined just how closely Beijing supported Pakistan during the intense conflict and Islamabad’s growing military dependence on China.
......
Gautam

[Manish_Sharma]

https://x.com/Ken_LoveTW/status/2054067 ... 48855?s=20

China increasingly looks like a giant with feet of clay, reminding us of the Soviet Union Model.

From the outside, it still projects power: advanced manufacturing, booming exports, rising military capabilities, AI, robotics, electric vehicles, drones, semiconductors. Under Xi Jinping, China doubled military spending, poured hundreds of billions into tech self-sufficiency, and created ghost cities like XiongAn from the ground up.

But inside China, the economy is quietly hollowing out.

The Wall Street Journal recently highlighted the growing disconnect between China’s external strength and its domestic weakness. Consumer confidence is collapsing. Youth unemployment remains bleak. Property prices continue falling. Families are saving instead of spending because they no longer feel secure about the future.

This is the core contradiction of Xi’s China:
The state grows stronger while households grow weaker.
Local governments are slashing spending on roads, schools, and public services while massively increasing investment into strategic technologies. In Xi’an, education spending reportedly fell more than 10% while tech spending surged 80%. In Foshan, once a manufacturing powerhouse, growth slowed to almost zero as factories emptied out. Officials now dream of transforming the city into a robotics hub, but robots don’t replace an economy built on broad consumer demand and mass employment.

China’s social welfare spending is still only around 9% of GDP, closer to Mexico or Turkey than developed economies. Beijing keeps telling citizens to consume more, but refuses to build the safety net that would make people feel comfortable spending.

So China becomes increasingly dependent on exports to absorb excess production. But that only intensifies trade tensions with the West.

This is why so many analysts fundamentally misunderstand China. They see the shiny skyscrapers, EV exports, "AI breakthroughs" (by blatantly stealing from leading American AI firms), and military parades. What they don’t see is the weakening household sector underneath.

A country cannot sustainably become stronger externally while its people become weaker internally.
That is why China today increasingly resembles a geopolitical superpower built on a fragile domestic foundation. A giant with feet of clay rarely stands forever.

[drnayar]

https://youtu.be/fVv2x8ktssM

China Spends Big on US Missile in Iran, 13 Experts Killed by Explosion, US "Smart Bomb" Prevails

fwiw

how deep can the US deep penetrator bombs go ? why china is concerned

[g.sarkar]

https://www.rediff.com/news/column/chin ... 260514.htm
China Boosts Indian Ocean Ambitions, Should India Worry?
SRIKANTH KONDAPALLI, May 14, 2026
A quiet but subtle competition is brewing in the Indian Ocean region with multiple initiatives by China in strategic, diplomatic, economic and naval spheres posing ominous signals to India.
In the light of West Asia conflict, Beijing intends to use its forays to further consolidate its position.
Even before Quad and Indo-Pacific could fructify, China initiated the 'two oceans' strategy in 2009 towards the Indian and Pacific Oceans.
Since then, Beijing not only launched diplomatic initiatives, but also construction of dual-use port facilities, conduct of naval exercises and sent submarines and surveillance ships to assert itself and marginalise India.
China launched an Indian Ocean Forum in 2022 and followed it up in 2024 with the China-Indian Ocean Region Centre for Maritime Cooperation and Training Centre by inviting countries other than India.
Beijing promised to build a Communist party-centric agenda of 'maritime community with shared future'.
China sent clear signals through its white papers on national defence. The 2012 white paper, for instance, called for 'joint[ly] safeguard[ing] the security of the international SLOCs "(in the Gulf of Aden)'. The 2015 white paper directed China's naval forces to conduct maritime manoeuvres and 'joint operations at sea'.
The last white paper, in 2019, directed its navy 'to safeguard China's maritime rights and interests'.
To realise the 'China Dream', Beijing is reviving the plans of 14th century Admiral Zheng He's expeditions to the Indian Ocean and 19th century Wei Yuan's Nanyang plans for forays in the South Seas.
Today, China's navy has the largest number of vessels in the world, surpassing the United States navy by over 50 vessels.
By citing piracy incidents in the Indian Ocean, China sent 46 naval contingencies so far even after such incidents receded.
China also evacuated its citizens from strife-torn Yemen, Egypt, Syria and Libya but interestingly also came close to the Houthis in the Red Sea.
Such naval missions were utilised later to conduct amphibious exercises, air-defence themes and thus suggested the objectives were beyond countering piracy.
China also sent nearly 70 surveillance ships and research vessels to the Indian, Pacific and Arctic Oceans including the Yuan Wang 5, Dongfang Hong, Xiangyang Hong, Dayang Yihao, Shenhai Yihao, Shi Yan 6 and Lanhai ships.
Many of these violate operate in the Exclusive Economic Zones of other countries and thus violate international law under Article 246 of the UNCLOS.
The purpose of these ships is to map sea-bed resources, prepare for submarine warfare, cut undersea cables to disrupt communications of the adversaries and prepare for naval contingencies.
China's surveillance ships Liaowang 1 and Dayang Yihao were operating near the United States vessels in West Asia recently.
China had also despatched submarines since 1986 to the region, with their first visit to Chittagong, Colombo and Karachi.
They also docked at Sri Lankan and Pakistani ports in 2015. It was also reported that China despatched 3 to 5 Shang-class nuclear attack submarines (SSNs) and large Yuan class submarines. The purpose of these submarines is to disrupt trade.
Besides these, China despatches thousands of fishing boats to the region for illegal fishing, thus depleting the fish stock of the region.
During Operation Sindoor, hundreds of such boats appeared, possibly to harass the Indian Navy.
Such 'grey zone' activities are conducted to indicate China's intention to enter the region, gather intelligence, create civil-military confusion, exploit lack of preparedness by adversaries or treated as a stop-gap arrangement before full-fledged naval deployments.
.....
Gautam

[bala]

How dangerous is China's over(t) confidence ? / Lt Gen PR Shankar

Many in China are being fed with the cool-aid that they are living superior to even the US. The reality is the opposite. However the Chinese are being over confident about their smug GDP numbers and the ability to dominate the world. These are being stoked by the Emperor himself. Meanwhile the chinese are facing supply constraints in oil, raw resources and much more. Their exports are tanking and no one believes them in the defence arena for supplies. Chinese have an aggressive posture throughout the world including usurping territories of other nations. Surely the rhetoric portends its eventual downfall. Youth unemployment is huge and most have fled back into their villages. Many highrise buildings are empty and economic activity within has slid down a few notches. HSR is running empty mostly. Flights are without passenges. The old decrepit railways of China are filled with masses since they cannot afford high ticket prices. These trains are worse than Indian railways trains and is overcrowded filthy and stinking.

[Manish_Sharma]

https://x.com/cbkwgl/status/2055988639704764859?s=20

Do you know why China lost badly at Galwan inspite of bringing an army to cut off North Ladakh? Because it didn't have any military experience. All it has is some theoretical knowledge, some exercises and some very low intensity clashes. The recent comments by Gen Naravane should be looked from the same light. Indian Army practically lost experience of high intensity and high casuality combat. Anyone doing a desk job will cut down any such thought without thinking twice. In a choice between blood and gore, and a peaceful desk job to retirement, there is no competition. Its a hard truth we need to accept.
Do you remember the story when some Defence Ministry Babus were callous to clear some bills, George Fernandes sent them to Siachen? Only when you experience how people on the border and the boots on the ground are suffering, you will understand what's the best thing to do. Talk is cheap. Implications of the talk aren't.

https://x.com/cbkwgl/status/2056002971205259289?s=20

A few words on the China part. For fighting with rocks in a river, China didn't bring 60k and India didn't flood the theatre with another 60k. And the main thrust in 1962 as well as now is Galwan - and Galwan leads to only one place - Khaplu. If China is successful to reach Khaplu, the whole of North Ladakh - Siachen and DBO will be cut off. India will have to invest disproportionately to retake the Nubra-Khaplu road or write-off the whole of North Ladakh. That's exactly what India was staring at. Abd that's exactly why government gave a free hand to Army High Command.

[g.sarkar]

https://sundayguardianlive.com/news/top ... ff-193124/
The Thucydides trap: How Trump fell for Xi’s bluff
M.D. Nalapat, May 17, 2026
The body language of US delegation members was evidence of their unease at the patronizing manner that Xi had while speaking to the US President. Each meeting was laden with the symbolism of the superiority of Chinese Communist culture over its US counterpart.
The sartorial choice of US Secretary of State Marco Rubio on board Air Force 1 said it all. He wore the same type of fatigues that deposed Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro wore when he was led in handcuffs to a US prison. Secretary of State Rubio was clearly and cleverly signalling that he was not among those eager to make the visit to China that President Trump was making. President Xi Jinping was absent at the Beijing airport at the receiving ceremony, which was heavy on military marches and pageantry. The military aspect throughout the Trump visit was evident. President Trump may not have heard of Thucydides, and therefore missed the point Xi was making about the US “not falling into the Thucydides trap”. It was that China was the rising power and the US the declining power, and should avoid war as a consequence of its decline. The body language of several members of the US delegation was evidence of their unease at the patronizing manner that Xi had while speaking to the US President. During the visit, Secretary Rubio made it clear that US policy on China and Taiwan stands, only to be contradicted by President Trump on the return journey from Beijing to Washington, when he told the US media delegation accompanying him that he “would make the determination about arms sales to Taiwan”. Time after time, Xi hammered home the point that any “unwise” policy (read support for Taiwan in standing up to the PRC) by the US “would lead to a military conflict”. Having seen the indecision and vacillation of Trump in the matter of Iran, Xi was convinced that the US President lacked the backbone to use kinetic force to repel any move by the PRC to in effect seize control over Taiwan. Each meeting was laden with the symbolism of the superiority of Chinese Communist culture over its US counterpart. The Leadership Compound in Zhongnanhai is the centrepoint of the control of the CCP over China. It was there that Trump was taken, with Xi having a smile on his face as he saw the condition of the responses of President Trump to his aggressive rhetoric.
In the mind of President Trump, the most important outcome of the visit was the agreement for China to buy Trump Mobile Phones. His son Eric was there, happy at the huge market that his father had made accessible to his company. Xi “agreed to buy 200 Boeing aircraft”, a triumphant Salesman-cum-President informed the US media delegation. Hardly a concession, because the state-controlled airline companies in China needed well over that number of US aircraft and would have bought it anyway, visit or no visit by Trump. Xi may have agreed to buy soybeans from the US or US beef, although this is not prominent in the reportage of the visit. Again items that the PRC needs, not an actual concession. It needs very little to imagine the thoughts of the Prime Minister of Japan, Sanae Takaichi, by publicly saying that Japan would back the Taiwanese in case of a war with China. Or the thoughts of the President of another US ally, South Korea. What will US voters think about the bathetic, pathetic spectacle of the Trump visit to the PRC? Many voted for Trump because they believed from his campaign speeches that he would stand up to Xi. Instead, he was stooping, both figuratively and literally. Across the world, there are lobbies committed to the interests of the PRC. The FBI has been working at speed to locate and apprehend them. Will it now raid the White House to question President Trump about his servile manner and his responding with honeyed words to the barely veiled barbs of Xi?
......
Gautam

[Manish_Sharma]

https://x.com/Gaurab/status/2056178005454819791?s=20

China builds 120 J-20 stealth fighters a year. Every one needs rhenium-bearing superalloy blades. Beijing is quietly removing the rhenium constraint that has historically capped every modern air force. In 2023, China overtook the US as Chile's largest rhenium buyer. In 2024, domestic production quadrupled from 5.3 to 20 tonnes and held steady since. WS-15 serial production hit the J-20A line in December 2025. The domestic ramp came from roaster retrofits and new recovery equipment at Jiangxi Copper, China Molybdenum, and Zijin Mining. Beijing stockpiles rhenium at about 10 tonnes a year, a surge buffer for combat attrition. The same metallurgy feeds the J-20, J-35, CJ-1000A, gas turbines for grid power, and Pt-Re refinery catalysts. Every tonne Beijing locks in is one fewer for an F135 blade at Pratt & Whitney, an F414 stage at GE, or a Trent XWB rotor at Rolls-Royce. By 2030, China's fifth-generation fighter fleet will outnumber the US Air Force's F-22 and F-35A combined. The rhenium constraint isn't going away. It's becoming binding only on the West.

[Manish_P]

^ Time for the US to abduct the Chile president and plant a US backer in his place

[Manish_Sharma]

https://x.com/LiuInTheShadows/status/20 ... 90105?s=20

BEIJING JUST BECAME THE MOST DANGEROUS ROOM ON EARTH. HERE'S WHAT COMES NEXT, STEP BY STEP:

Xi just hosted Trump. Then, before the ceremonial trappings were even cleared, Putin walked through the same door.

That sequence is not coincidence. It's a message.

Here's what comes next, step by step:

Step 1 — Xi positions China as the indispensable power
Trump came first. Putin came second. Beijing received both. That's not diplomacy. That's leverage. Xi is telling Washington and Moscow simultaneously: you need me more than you need each other.

Step 2 — Putin and Xi sign 40+ documents on energy, trade, and security
China is already Russia's largest oil and gas buyer — Europe's pipeline imports collapsed to their lowest levels since the mid-1970s after sanctions. These deals deepen that dependence and lock in the economic architecture of the anti-Western bloc.

Step 3 — They publish the multipolar declaration
The joint statement on "establishing a multipolar world" and a "new type of international relations" is the diplomatic language for one thing: the formal announcement that the U.S.-led order is being replaced. In writing. Signed by both.

Step 4 — Trump's Beijing visit produces nothing to counter it
No major breakthrough on trade. No agreement on Iran. No movement on Ukraine. Trump left with photo ops. Xi immediately invited the man fighting the war Trump couldn't stop.

Step 5 — The 25-year treaty anniversary becomes a relaunch moment
Putin's visit also marks the 25th anniversary of the 2001 Treaty of Good-Neighborliness. They're not just renewing it. They're upgrading it — with energy corridors, military coordination, and a shared ideological framework for the next 25 years.

Step 6 — Washington's traditional alliance architecture cracks further
The back-to-back visits signal that Beijing no longer needs to choose sides. It hosts both. It extracts from both. And it shapes the outcome of both conflicts — Ukraine and Iran — without firing a single shot.

Step 7 — The real question is what Xi told each of them about the other
Xi reportedly told Trump that Putin might regret invading Ukraine. Days later, he welcomed Putin with 40 documents and a joint declaration. One of those statements was for the cameras. The question is which one.

The question is not whether this shifts the balance of power.

The question is how fast.

[bala]

US Asks China to Release Panchen Lama Days After Trump-Xi Meeting

U.S. asked China to release the Panchen Lama- the second-highest authority in Tibetan Buddhism. As per Tibetans in exile, he along with his family was kidnapped by Chinese authorities 31 years ago. This comes just days after U.S. President Donald Trump met his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TahdeuVQlas


// they probably killed him.
// the US should have asked China to free Tibet, a land illegally occupied by China in the 50s.

[Manish_Sharma]

https://x.com/Normal_2610/status/205745 ... 08180?s=20

I think I am stupid, Even though I know how the Chinese work - how they used the Korean, Singapore, & Japanese playbook to build China

After that, they learned the US playbook - how to dictate the world. How? Invest in R&D for 20+ years, execute every 10-year plan with discipline, and grab the upstream upper hand.

I just feel surprised - Chinese biotech is now making a lot of money through IP and patents on new drugs. In the next 15 years, they will perhaps take away the market share of the Western world.

It will be a done deal for them.

So how CATL after 40k+ of patents, after becoming the top battery maker - is China doing technology transfer to you? Are they dumb?

Indian Conglomerate don't know how they completely 'mucked' up Germany and are going to ruin Europe in the next 15 years? Just look at the data - how many companies are going bankrupt in Europe.

That's not going to happen anyway. Chinese will take royalty if any company tries to go international and you are using Chinese tech - you will be a done deal.

Even for domestic assembly in India - core stuff like CNC, top heavy precision tech machines won't come to India. Even if they give, they will give 3-generation-old machines.

Chinese are not going to give you any market share anyway. They give to proxy nations, not to you. ASEAN are the best kids - they admire China.

The only option for India is - dedicated government + corporate 20-year R&D investment + build ITIs and universities, make them world-class, give more funding.

Education-industrial linkage is mandatory. Give lollipops to Japanese, Korean, US, and European companies to come and set up plants in India - fast-track with no issues, just do production in India with tax break holidays.

Real manufacturing has to be done.

China was the big hard FDI infuser in India, but after 2020 everything changed. And now China imports only rise - even the PM went to China just to give some exemptions.

So this is not going to end well. Even if you want Chinese, give them what they want. If you try to be smart, they ****** you hard.

And the conglomerates of India love paint business, not science stuff.

Now my only hope is the new-age startups and deep tech that is building in India - they are doing really good stuff. These are the only hope for now. Even here, the government doesn't give any priority - not even state governments.

So India's rise is slow and messy, but it will grow and disappoint a lot too. This nation disappoints both optimists and pessimists.

I feel sometimes stupid when I know the future is EV, AI and India is hotter with cooling demand as a must-need in a growing aspirational economy where people buy ACs even on EMI and iPhones on EMI.

So when you know battery is the hardest part, compressor is the hardest part - why is no one investing in this?

Even when they know BESS can be done through sodium-ion battery tech too - why are they not investing in anything but buying everything from China and assembling in India?

My only hope for now is India new-age startups and the semiconductor value chain that is building in India. That's the only hope.

[Manish_Sharma]

https://x.com/commiepommie/status/20584 ... 46239?s=20

Every time China advances, the same accusation gets thrown around: “They just stole our tech!”

This has been the standard complaint for years. But living here in China, the gap between that narrative and what you actually see every day is hard to ignore.

Yes, in the catch-up stage China studied, licensed and sometimes reverse-engineered foreign technology. Exactly like Japan did after World War II with American cars and electronics. Like South Korea did with Japanese industrial models in the 70s and 80s. Like the United States itself, which borrowed British textile and steam technology in the 19th century. That’s how every late-developing nation has moved forward. No country invents in a vacuum.

The difference is that China didn’t stop at copying. It iterated, scaled and improved at a pace the West hasn’t matched.

Take high-speed rail as an example. Japan, France and Germany pioneered it. China bought the initial trains, absorbed the technology through joint ventures, then built the world’s largest and safest network with over 45,000 km today, more than the rest of the planet combined. Domestic Fuxing trains now run smoother, cheaper and more reliably than the originals. In addition, China exports the entire system to dozens of countries. That’s not theft; that is engineering execution at state scale.

Initially, BYD’s EV designs were influenced by other companies, but they eventually took a completely different approach. Their Blade Battery is safer, longer-lasting and cheaper than what Tesla was using. They vertically integrated everything from raw materials through to final assembly. The result: BYD overtook Tesla in global EV sales volume, now supplies batteries to Tesla’s Berlin plant and leads the world in affordable mass-market electrification. Tesla’s 4680 cells are solid engineering, but BYD’s patent portfolio on batteries is eleven times the size.

Solar panels tell the same story. China turned laboratory curiosities into the cheapest clean energy source on the planet, massive R&D, production scale and relentless incremental efficiency gains. Chinese firms now hold the top efficiency records and over 80 percent of global output. China files nearly half the world’s total patents, leads in 37 of 44 critical technology areas and just cracked the Global Innovation Index top ten for the first time.

For a brief history lesson, ancient China handed the world some of the most consequential inventions in human history.

- Paper, in the second century BC. Printing, eighth to eleventh centuries. Together they turned knowledge from something monks hoarded into something millions could read and pass on.

- Gunpowder, in the ninth century. Ended the age of knights and stone castles.

- The magnetic compass, already in use by the fourth century BC. Without it, no European Age of Exploration. Sailors had no means to cross open oceans.

- Cast iron, two millennia before the West.

- The stirrup, which made heavy cavalry possible.

- The seismograph, back in 132 AD. The world’s first, capable of pinpointing earthquakes hundreds of kilometres away.

- The mechanical clock, porcelain, the decimal system with zero, negative numbers and the list goes on.

These weren’t minor curiosities. These were the true bases that fueled Europe’s subsequent rise. Without Chinese breakthroughs in paper, printing, gunpowder and navigation, there would have been no Renaissance, no Scientific Revolution and no industrial takeoff on the scale the West eventually achieved.

For over a thousand years the Silk Road didn’t just carry silk and spices. It carried ideas and the traffic ran overwhelmingly one way.

Today, China invests more in R&D than any other country, FACT. It also publishes more high-impact papers in key fields and turns ideas into deployed technology faster than anyone.

That’s what real competition looks like when 1.4 billion people decide to lead.

Keep shouting “they stole our tech” if it helps, but this claim is nothing more than copium.

[sanjaykumar]

That’s preposterously wrong on several counts. Garbage.

[bala]

^^ now they are claiming this??

the decimal system with zero, negative numbers

[Manish_Sharma]

https://x.com/Normal_2610/status/205857 ... 60015?s=20
China cut raw dysprosium and terbium to Japan, It did not cut finished magnets - Read that again.

Japan can still buy the finished product from Chinese factories but cannot buy the raw material to make its own.

That trains Japanese manufacturers to stop making magnets and start buying them, Every month Shin Etsu does not get raw dysprosium is a month its customers switch to Chinese finished magnets.

The ban is not punishing Japan, It is converting Japan from a competitor into a customer.

Takaichi said in Diet that a Chinese attack on Taiwan would be a survival threatening situation for Japan. That was one sentence in one committee hearing.

Within two months China banned dual use exports, blacklisted 20 defense entities, and stopped shipping dysprosium, terbium, gallium, and yttrium. The chart goes from 200k kg bars to flat zero.

Every Indo Pacific government considering a public Taiwan position now has a cost model in front of it

Everyone focuses on dysprosium and terbium. Gallium is the harder problem. It is not mined directly. It comes as a byproduct of aluminium smelting.

China runs 90% of global gallium supply because it runs 60% of global aluminium. You cannot build a gallium mine, You need an entire aluminium smelting industry first.

Japan has neither, The chart shows gallium going to zero alongside the rare earths.

[bala]

China is signatory to WTO and these practices are against WTO charter. BTW US billy boy clintonite admitted China into WTO for some bakshish. The chinese require crude oil movement from producers and I think they (the producers) should insist that china pay in dysprosium, terbium, gallium, yttrium and other rare earths. This is the only way to twist China. Tis quite alarming why the world condones this behaviour of China. Not are all rare earth ores are in china, they buy from others including myanmar. In myanmar the place is a wreck with bad pollution and poison the earth with dangerous chemicals.

On an another note: the world should recognize Taiwan and Tibet as independent entities. China needs to be shown their place. The US can easily recognize both these places as independent (declare it boldly with fanfare) and china has no other alternate but to accept their independence.

[Vayutuvan]

China is signatory to WTO and these practices are against WTO charter. BTW US billy boy clintonite admitted China into WTO for some bakshish.

India also supported Chinese entry into the WTO. Maybe it was a misapplication by low-IQ babus of the "Look East" policy of PV saab.