Understanding the US - Again

[drnayar]

After Beijing, the World Looks Different - By Prof Robert Pape

Posting this article from Prof Robert Pape's substack with conclusions similar to what KL Dubey ji posted in his post above. It is worth spending a few minutes to read it and digest its conclusions. Posting his final conclusion below for the benefit of interested readers.

If you found this analysis useful, please consider sharing it with others trying to understand how the Iran war is reshaping not only the Middle East, but the future balance of global great power politics itself.

I am worried about how China will view this new order wrt to its designs to undermine India to become numero Uno in Asia and the world. Will it become more aggressive or encourage its lapdogs to become aggressive?

Both. America and China are opportunistic. As long as Indians keep their sanity and invest in stable governance , both will keep their distance. India with each passing day , is a power too big to ignore, too big to fight against directly [ and indirectly as well ! .. i am impressed how the cockroach party has been dealt with behind the scenes ] .. and the only power in the world that can go toe to toe with them., it may not win but it will drag the other down !

[A_Gupta]

Me, I just want a deal that puts India back on track.

I am not sure what "deal" you are referring to, and why India "needs a deal" to be "back on track".

India’s economy is negatively impacted by the war.

Quote(AI summary, but you can put together the picture yourself too)

The macroeconomic impact of the war involving Iran on the Indian economy acts primarily as a severe supply-side shock transmitted through energy markets, trade bottlenecks, and labor disruptions. Because India relies on imports for roughly 85% to 90% of its crude oil and a significant portion of its natural gas, the disruption of regional shipping routes—particularly the Strait of Hormuz—has triggered substantial inflationary pressures and a widening current account deficit. Estimates indicate that a prolonged conflict keeping oil prices elevated could pare India's GDP growth by 0.5 to 1.5 percentage points.

Furthermore, the macro-shocks are compounding across several domestic and external sectors:

Currency and Capital Flight: Increased dollar demand to cover costlier oil imports, coupled with foreign investors fleeing emerging markets, has depreciated the Indian rupee to record lows. This weakens import purchasing power and worsens imported inflation.

Trade and Manufacturing Costs: Skyrocketing maritime insurance premiums and freight costs—caused by vessels bypassing blockades and rerouting around Africa—have squeezed margins for key Indian export sectors like textiles, leather, and handicrafts. Industrial sectors like steelmaking are simultaneously facing localized production cuts due to liquefied natural gas (LNG) shortages.

Labor and Remittances Strain: The economic slowdown in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region has choked off a vital employment engine for millions of Indian blue-collar expatriates. This has led to a deceleration in recruitment and a notable drop in inbound foreign remittances, adding further structural strain to India's domestic job market and foreign exchange reserves.

[Kanoji]

Both. America and China are opportunistic. As long as Indians keep their sanity and invest in stable governance , both will keep their distance. India with each passing day , is a power too big to ignore, too big to fight against directly [ and indirectly as well ! .. i am impressed how the cockroach party has been dealt with behind the scenes ] .. and the only power in the world that can go toe to toe with them., it may not win but it will drag the other down !

Thank you drnayar ji. Could I request you yo post links on the underlined part above?

[A_Gupta]

Just one statistic: India’s wholesale manufacturing prices increased 4.62% year-on-year in April 2026, accelerating from a 3.39% rise in March, and marking the fastest growth since September 2022.

Unlike the UPA which did growth for growth’s sake, Modi sarkar’s policy is to provide macroeconomic stability and let growth come as it may. This is what is at risk.

To put it another way, PM Modi made an "austerity" speech. That was serious.

[Cyrano]

What a rant! A lot of it is justified.

[drnayar]

Both. America and China are opportunistic. As long as Indians keep their sanity and invest in stable governance , both will keep their distance. India with each passing day , is a power too big to ignore, too big to fight against directly [ and indirectly as well ! .. i am impressed how the cockroach party has been dealt with behind the scenes ] .. and the only power in the world that can go toe to toe with them., it may not win but it will drag the other down !

Thank you drnayar ji. Could I request you yo post links on the underlined part above?

there is no one post ., just take it fwiw for now. X has some posts where cockroach websites have been taken down , their social media accounts now propped up by paki handles etc. Will post as soon as some more news come out in open source.

[KL Dubey]

India’s economy is negatively impacted by the war.

That wasn't the question I asked. The question was what "deal" are you referring to, and why does India need this "deal". There are no "deals" on the table, it is all complete BS. There is nonstop talk about "deals" since January 2025, but none of these "deals" mean anything and there is no documentation to support any of them. Hoping for anything concrete from any of these fake-ass "deals" is foolhardy. As mentioned in other posts above, Bharat should continue on its path (most notably renewables deployment), with additional oil supplies short term, austerity measures as needed, etc. And Bharat continues to ink proper and tangible agreements with other countries, not "deals".

PS: I would also say that the word "deal" should be banned from Indian diplomatic/international trade parlance. Anyone coming with the word "deal" in any document or message should be summarily rejected. Acceptable words should be enquiry, proposal, negotiation, documentation, and agreement. IOW, "Deal" with your shyte before showing up at Bharat's door.

[Vayutuvan]

What a rant! A lot of it is justified.

[youtube...]j9MubNsh3rs[/youtube]

British? Pot kettle black AKA guruvedna ginja

[Vayutuvan]

PS: I would also say that the word "deal" should be banned from Indian diplomatic/international trade parlance. ...

MoU should also be banned. If it is not enforceable, then it is not a legal contract with contractual obligations and a redressal mechanism in case the contract is broken.

MoU is BS weasel phrase. Indian babus love it as much as the Amrus love the word "Deal".

[A_Gupta]

The question was what "deal" are you referring to, and why does India need this "deal". There are no "deals" on the table, it is all complete BS. There is nonstop talk about "deals" since January 2025, but none of these "deals" mean anything and there is no documentation to support any of them.

This is what I wrote. (Below, emphasis added). I thought it was obvious that “deal” referred to any kind of US-Iran agreement that brought back normal operations to the Gulf. Since the war began at the end of February 2026 (or June 2025) I don’t understand what you mean by January 2025, unless it was a trade agreement between India and the US.

Trista Parsi of the Quincy Institute said that the way you can know that the US is actually close to a deal with Iran is that the war hawks in the US will start criticizing the deal and/or Trump.

Sure enough, Senator Ted Cruz is criticizing the proposed deal. Lindsay Graham also is a war hawk, but he is also incapable of being critical of anything Trump does.

—-
Me, I just want a deal that puts India back on track. Trump can have a Nobel Prize a year for all I care.

You then began as below, and I thought, since the deal I was talking about was obviously a US-Iran deal, that you might be under the impression that India being able to obtain petroleum meant that all was well. But it is not, it just means no shortages. That oil is coming in at a much higher price, widening India’s current account deficit. The government is eating that cost to spare the Indian consumer, and that is putting a strain on its finances. If the US-Iran stand-off continues for another few months, the Indian economy will reach a bad place.

Helium, urea, natural gas are also an issue. If the GCC economies contract (Qatar at 8%, Dubai 7%, UAE overall 4.8%), the Indian workers there are going to earn less, and there will be pressure on remittances. If I am spelling out the obvious, it is because I was mistaken that in my previous post it was obvious the “deal” referred to a US-Iran deal.

I am not sure what "deal" you are referring to, and why India "needs a deal" to be "back on track".

- Russian oil (regardless of any US sanctions/waivers) and Venezuelan oil are flowing to India. In fact the latter was one of our largest oil suppliers until Trump first-term sanctions. Reliance built its refineries to be able to refine heavy sour Venezuelan crude. GCC and Iran oil flows will resume and prices will resume a downward trend for a while.…

[A_Gupta]

The Times of Israel reports:
Trump links Abraham Accords to Iran deal, says joining should be ‘mandatory’ for 6 Muslim nations, tells Saudis and Qataris to go first

US President Donald Trump ties the emerging Iran deal with the Abraham Accords normalization agreements with Israel and says joining it should be “mandatory” for six Muslim nations, telling Saudi Arabia and Qatar to sign up first.
...
He specifies those countries as Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Pakistan, Turkey, Egypt, and Jordan, and also lists the UAE and Bahrain while noting they are already members.

[KL Dubey]

The question was what "deal" are you referring to, and why does India need this "deal". There are no "deals" on the table, it is all complete BS. There is nonstop talk about "deals" since January 2025, but none of these "deals" mean anything and there is no documentation to support any of them.

This is what I wrote. (Below, emphasis added). I thought it was obvious that “deal” referred to any kind of US-Iran agreement that brought back normal operations to the Gulf. Since the war began at the end of February 2026 (or June 2025) I don’t understand what you mean by January 2025, unless it was a trade agreement between India and the US.

[/quote]

OK, I get that. But there is no such "deal". Like I said, after 1.5 years of this "deal" drama, putting any stock in such thing is a waste of time.

I've mentioned multiple times Bharat sarkar has seen through the "deal" tamasha and instead focused on strengthening Bharat without any "dealbaazi".

Dealwale dulhaniya nahi le jaayenge...bas shehnai bajaate rah jaayenge.

[A_Gupta]

^^^ India has zero to do with any US-Iran deal that results in a cessation of hostilities and a resumption of commerce in the GCC states; but India will benefit from it. Even it is for 30 days or 60 days or otherwise temporary. It will be a relief to India's current account and government deficit, to inflation and to the foreign exchange situation. I don't see what any dealbazi or dulhaniya or shehnai has to do with it, or why trust or lack thereof comes into the picture. But OK, whatever.

[uddu]

Those countries that were linked to the U.S by the hip are derisking and doing Multialignment.
EU and Mexico seal trade deal to reduce reliance on US | DW News
Facing pressure from Donald Trump’s tariffs, the European Union and Mexico are turning to each other. A newly finalized trade pact aims to cut barriers and boost investment—but also signals a broader effort to reduce reliance on the United States. The deal reflects shifting global alliances, though Mexico must tread carefully as it renegotiates its crucial trade relationship with Washington.

Chapters:
0:00 EU and Mexico finally finalize trade deal
2:48 Irene Banos Ruiz, Journalist
3:57 How important is deal for both markets?
5:33 The deal's anti-Trump aspects
7:50 When does the deal start?

[uddu]

https://x.com/i/status/2058927256052117814
@Chopsyturvey
Hilarious

[uddu]

Those foolish Indian's who think the U.S is ranked above India in Press Freedom don't understand U.S properly. Common man cannot utter a word against the establishment.
Woman arrested after Facebook post over water concerns


The kind of craziness happening in the U.S is unparalled anywhere in the world
Detective Realizes He’s Interrogating The Victim

[A_Gupta]

“The world is bigger than the US. Hard to believe, but it’s true” - OM

[g.sarkar]

https://www.rediff.com/news/report/u-tu ... 260530.htm
US makes U-turn on 'return to home country' order for green cards
Hemant Waje, May 30, 2026
The US has clarified that not all immigrants seeking green cards will be required to return to their home country to make such applications.
The statement from the US Department of Homeland Security (DHS) on Friday appeared to be a partial walk-back on the announcement by the US Citizenship and Immigration Services stating the individuals seeking permanent residency would have to return to their home countries to await their green cards.
DHS Clarifies Discretionary Authority
"This was just a reminder to officers of their discretionary authority, which has always existed on a case-by-case basis," a DHS spokesperson said in a statement to The New York Times.
The DHS said the USCIS memo of May 22 was not a blanket change and that it would be up to individual immigration officers to decide whether someone should be forced to go abroad to gain a green card.
The spokesperson pointed to people who overstay visas or come from countries whose citizens are heavy users of public assistance as groups that could be affected.
Despite the assurances, immigration lawyers have been counselling a wait and watch approach to see how the changes actually unfold as fewer details were immediately available.
Though announced with a news release, a senior White House official said this week that the effort was meant to be a housekeeping matter, not a change of strategy, the New York Times reported.
Green Card Statistics and Impact
About 14 lakh green cards were granted in 2024, with more than 8.2 lakh approved for people inside the country through a process called "adjustment of status", according to Department of Homeland Security data.
Over the past two decades, more than 500,000 people have received green cards via adjustment of status each year, except for in 2020 during the Covid-19 pandemic.
According to estimates, over 30,000 Indian H1B visa holders become due for green cards every year.
Despite the assurances, immigration lawyers have been counselling a wait and watch approach to see how the changes actually unfold.
.....
Gautam

[Tanaji]

https://www.news4jax.com/news/politics/ ... endations/

President Donald Trump on Friday gave his endorsement to a January study by the Department of Health and Human Services that calls for cutting the number of vaccines recommended for every American child.

I think the time is soon on hand where countries should start restricting US citizens based on vaccinations received. They can believe whatever brain rot they want. We absolutely do not need these diseases in our countries.

[sanjaykumar]

This is an area which has had deliberate attenuation of public discourse. As far as I can tell.

Tragically in 2025, there were two deaths in Canada of babies born to mothers whose X’anity beliefs prevented vaccination against measles.

It is easy to dismiss this as self selecting out of the gene pool or Jesus’ will. But this is a serious issue. And tragic.

I fear there will be cases of the immunised contracting measles from some of these pious people and suffering adverse sequelae


It might lead to social disruption. Most of the unvaccinated are from Christian communities such as the Mennonites.


So next time we mock Muslims for refusing polio vaccine, let us pause to understand what is going on here.

[chetak]

This is an area which has had deliberate attenuation of public discourse. As far as I can tell.

Tragically in 2025, there were two deaths in Canada of babies born to mothers whose X’anity beliefs prevented vaccination against measles.

It is easy to dismiss this as self selecting out of the gene pool or Jesus’ will. But this is a serious issue. And tragic.

I fear there will be cases of the immunised contracting measles from some of these pious people and suffering adverse sequelae


It might lead to social disruption. Most of the unvaccinated are from Christian communities such as the Mennonites.


So next time we mock Muslims for refusing polio vaccine, let us pause to understand what is going on here.

sanjaykumar ji,


the beedis have a serious outbreak of measles that is currently ongoing, because that punk youanus changed both the sourcing and maybe also schedule for the measles vaccine

these contrived and manipulated nobel piss prizes don't always hit the target as intended, because you have scum like youanus who manage to slip through the cracks and mess up a whole country by fiddling with things that they know nothing about

this will have economic and social repercussions, especially when applying for visas to gora countries countries

India seems blissfully unconcerned by the risk and danger lurking across the beedi border, because the indiscriminate granting of Indian visas to the beedis can literally blow up in our faces with a local outbreak of measles sourced from these jihadi Atithi Devo Bhavas

[Cyrano]

PS: I would also say that the word "deal" should be banned from Indian diplomatic/international trade parlance. ...

MoU should also be banned. If it is not enforceable, then it is not a legal contract with contractual obligations and a redressal mechanism in case the contract is broken.

MoU is BS weasel phrase. Indian babus love it as much as the Amrus love the word "Deal".

Suvarna Kapi has made even signed contracts worthless. One can only hope the next US and other western govts don't use it as precedent to ditch contractual obligations when it doesn't suit them. For ex India EU trade 'deal'. The damage done by SK to "rules based order" is immense and long lasting.

Going forward, India must not be content that some international deal has been signed. Rather treat it as a starting point to create and keep creating a set of dependencies for and leverages on the other party so that the deal continually delivers the expected results for India, throughout its term.

Smart companies do it all the time, it's called Contract Management.

The commerce ministry needs to grow 10x in the coming years to deal with this new trust but verify modus vivendi.

[Cyrano]

[S_Madhukar]

Is the US stock market now same as the CCP stock market ? Should RoW invest in US or backoff ?

https://x.com/Hedgeye/status/2060435253928604065

Rule changes for the SpaceX $SPCX IPO:
Index providers waived the profitability requirement and cut the seasoning window from 90 days to 5.
This forces over $30 trillion in passive 401k and retirement money to buy SpaceX at IPO valuations.
Bloomberg Intelligence estimates S&P 500 funds must absorb 19% of SpaceX's float within 6 months.
Russell 1000 and Nasdaq 100 funds will absorb 24%.
The rules built to protect passive investors:
1. S&P 500 has required 12 months of trading and 4 quarters of GAAP profitability since 2002. Both waived.
2. Nasdaq cut its inclusion window from 90 trading days to 15.
3. FTSE Russell cut its to 5.
All three benchmarks are now structured to buy SpaceX at IPO pricing

[drnayar]

MoU should also be banned. If it is not enforceable, then it is not a legal contract with contractual obligations and a redressal mechanism in case the contract is broken.

MoU is BS weasel phrase. Indian babus love it as much as the Amrus love the word "Deal".

Suvarna Kapi has made even signed contracts worthless. One can only hope the next US and other western govts don't use it as precedent to ditch contractual obligations when it doesn't suit them. For ex India EU trade 'deal'. The damage done by SK to "rules based order" is immense and long lasting.

Going forward, India must not be content that some international deal has been signed. Rather treat it as a starting point to create and keep creating a set of dependencies for and leverages on the other party so that the deal continually delivers the expected results for India, throughout its term.

Smart companies do it all the time, it's called Contract Management.

The commerce ministry needs to grow 10x in the coming years to deal with this new trust but verify modus vivendi.

trust but verify , monitoring should be part of any deal , anything outside should make any deal void

[A_Gupta]

Thanks to Trump/ Elon Musk/ DOGE/ RFK Jr. cuts, the US public health preparedness for something like Ebola is decimated. CDC = Center for Disease Control.

The CDC sent an “urgent request” for volunteers across job types and pay grades to help screen passengers arriving from Central Africa. This includes public health advisers, emergency management specialists, and licensed medical providers.

These requests follow significant staff cuts, with the CDC’s workforce reportedly reduced by nearly 30% since last year, directly impacting its capacity to staff airport screening operations.

[g.sarkar]

https://www.rediff.com/news/column/trum ... 260601.htm
Trump-Xi Engagement Raises India's Concerns
T P SREENIVASAN, June 01, 2026
President Donald Trump was not his usual arrogant and abrasive self when he visited China on May 13 to 15, 2026.
He was on a mission to improve his image before the mid time polls in November by seeking a vision of constructive China-US strategic stability, to highlight the might of American industry and to secure as many orders as possible for beef, beans and Boeings.
He tried to ingratiate Xi Jinping by praising him to the skies, though the latter was more restrained in complimenting Trump.
A concept had developed in 2000 of a 'G2' by which the US and China, who were more or less equal in power and influence would get close enough to work together for peace, stability and global development.
But the idea was not championed by either side because the anxiety around the world about a condominium of the two nations dominating the world.
President Trump referred to it casually in South Korea before his meeting with Xi, but it was not mentioned in his conversation with the Chinese president.
Perhaps, since President Trump had his own expanding agenda including the Panama Canal, Greenland, Canada, Venezuela, Iran and Cuba, there was no question of a consensus between G2.
He preferred to act according to his own whims and fancies without discussing his plans even with his own advisers. Vice President J D Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio were more their master's voices than his advisers.
Another reason for the neglect of G2 was that Trump initially had plans to get close to Russian President Vladimir Putin to confront China. His quest for a Nobel Prize also had to be a solitary effort.
He had not yet discovered the potential of Pakistan as a mediator. No wonder, therefore, most of his objectives had no role for a tie up with China.
Setbacks push Trump toward China
Trump's visit to China in May 2026 was prompted by a change of his priorities on account of his failure to accomplish most of his missions in the world.
The Panama Canal was too much in China's grip to annex it. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney had no desire to become the governor of the 51st state of the United States.
Prime Minister Carney wanted to unite the 'Middle Powers' against economic integration with the US and wanted strategic autonomy not only in politics but also in economic relations.
A war with Denmark for Greenland would have meant taking on his NATO allies.
President Trump claimed that he had obliterated Iran's nuclear capability by bombing reactors deep under the ground, but Iran appeared to be right in its claim that they did not lose much in the bombing and Trump decided that some reactors over ground like the Natanz nuclear facility, which were subject to inspection by the International Atomic Energy Agency were also a threat.
Moreover, removing uranium enriched beyond safe levels stored in Iran had to be removed out of Iran.
......
Gautam

[ritesh]

Is the US stock market now same as the CCP stock market ? Should RoW invest in US or backoff ?

https://x.com/Hedgeye/status/2060435253928604065

All stock exchanges every where is manipulated in some or other way.

[A_Gupta]

“A Justice Department attorney argued to a federal appeals court Friday that the Trump administration could hypothetically bulldoze the Statue of Liberty and Americans with cultural ties to the landmark couldn’t sue them for it, as the Trump administration fights to defend the construction of President Donald Trump’s planned White House ballroom.”

[Vayutuvan]

Several Women Who Dated Graham Platner Recall ‘Unsettling’ Behavior

The Democratic candidate for Senate in Maine could be charming, women said in interviews, but some found his actions intimidating and disturbing.

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/04/us/p ... ships.html

Mister Platner could be rough with her, Ms Fifield said, particularly when they were drinking, leaving her shaken and sometimes afraid...But she said he regularly grabbed her by the shoulders --- sometimes hard enough to leave marks ...

During one argument, she recalled he twisted her arm behind her back, shoved her into a bedroom and held the door closed from the other side so she couldn't get out, telling her to remain there until she was "calm".
...
He would joke about it being a Nazi tattoo. ... he told her that he and other members of his unit selected the tattoo because 'they were like a death unit, they were killers...

(From other reports on TV channels)

Platner's past

- Nazi tattoo
- Praised Hamas raid that killed Israelis
- Embraced political violence
- Suggested fighting fascism with guns
- Sexting scandal
- Used "Cops are ********" slogan
- Called rural Americans "Racist" & "Stupid"
- Identified as communist & Socialist
- Downplayed Rape
- Mocked a Purple Heart soldier
- Bragged about doing cocaine while on military leave
- Multiple allegations by former girlfriends

Statement from Ro Khanna
Ro Khanna says Platner's behaviour "Wrong & Toxic" but will rally with him tonight anyway

The behavior described in the New York Times story was wrong and toxic. Graham has acknowledged that and sought redemption. The people of Maine deserve a senator who is going to stand up to the billionaire class, against genocide, and for the working class.

[Vayutuvan]

Thanks to Trump/ Elon Musk/ DOGE/ RFK Jr. cuts, the US public health preparedness for something like Ebola is decimated. CDC = Center for Disease Control.
...

While GOPers are busy wrecking the vaccination system, Dems are engaged in siphoning money from the poor.

Various cases of alleged Ohio Medicaid Fraud

1. Politician: Founded a $11 M home health care company. Appeared to be running part-time
2. "Health" Provider: Reinvented her janitorial LLC to collect Medicaid. Billed Medicaid $100,000 the first month
3. Home Healthcare Company landlord: Bought Airplanes after renting space to hundreds. Billed Medicaid a quarter of a Billion dollars.
4. Repeat offender Fraudster couple: Launched a million-dollar Medicaid business
5. Previously incarcerated Medicaid Fraudster: Told the government he was too broke to pay restitution. Neighbors & associates preside over a poverty-program empire.
6. Previous Accountant: Opened a $7M home health company. Used the address of a convicted money launderer's teenage son

[A_Gupta]

As Fighter Fleet Shrinks Below Legal Minimum, Pfluger Sounds Alarm

https://www.airandspaceforces.com/air-f ... l-pfluger/

Congress wrote into law in 2017 that the Air Force must maintain at least 1,145 fighters in its primary mission aircraft inventory (PMAI)—defined as those aircraft “assigned to meet the primary aircraft authorization to a unit for the performance of its wartime mission.”

Lawmakers gave the Pentagon a temporary exception to the requirement in 2025, but that waiver is now expired. The trade newsletter Inside Defense first reported the matter May 28, and Air & Space Forces Magazine independently confirmed that report.

[uddu]

https://x.com/MeghUpdates/status/2064657828141490191
@MeghUpdates

Donald Trump kept on updating plane losses after Operation Sindoor, Time to Update tally of U.S. military aircraft losses in the war with Iran (28 Feb–09 Jun 2026):

Recent losses include four MQ-9 Reaper drones, one MQ-1C, and a U.S. Army AH-64 Apache attack helicopter.

— 1 ranian SAM
— 3 F-15E ($90M each) — shot down over Kuwait/Iran
— 1 A-10 — crashed during CSAR operation in Iran
— 1 AH-64 ($35M) — shot down by IRGC over Hormuz
— 1 E-3 Sentry AWACS ($700M est.) — destroyed at PSAB
— 2+ KC-135 Tankers destroyed, 7 damaged
— 28 MQ-9 Reapers + 1 MQ-1C UCAV destroyed
— 1 MQ-4C Triton ($250M)
— 2 MC-130J Commando II ($100M each)
— 1 HH-60M — Iraq
— 1 HH-60W — damaged over Iran
— 2 CH-47 Chinook ($50M each)
— 4 AH-MH Little Bird

The estimated cost of U.S. aircraft losses and damage now exceeds $2.7 billion.

Data credits: EGYOSINT

[A_Gupta]

“SENATORS TIM KAINE AND RAND PAUL made a shocking revelation last week about the U.S. military’s boat strikes in the East Pacific and Caribbean—attacks legal experts agree are illegal. In questioning Secretary of State Marco Rubio during a Foreign Relations Committee hearing, they revealed that the targeting decisions about which boats would be attacked did not take into account whether they had drugs or arms aboard. In other words, the military may have attacked—and may attack in the future—a boat that carries neither drugs nor weapons, yet somehow, according to the Trump administration, constitutes a military threat to national security.”

[A_Gupta]

Hegseth, Secretary of War, on Iran [1] :

"We will keep pressing. We will keep pushing, keep advancing, no quarter, no mercy for our enemies."

US Department of Defense Law of War Manual: [2]

5.4.7 Prohibition Against Declaring That No Quarter Be Given. It is forbidden to declare that no quarter will be given. This means that it is prohibited to order that legitimate offers of surrender will be refused or that detainees, such as unprivileged belligerents, will be summarily executed. Moreover, it is also prohibited to conduct hostilities on the basis that there shall be no survivors, or to threaten the adversary with the denial of quarter.

This rule is based on both humanitarian and military considerations.This rule also applies during non-international armed conflict.

Congressional testimony [3] : CENTCOM Commander Admiral Brad Cooper was simply unable to affirm in particular that it is forbidden to declare that no quarter will be given. He just give generic "we will follow the law" statements.

Example:

Representative Jason Crow of Colorado: You're a combatant commander. You're one of our most senior military officers with tens of thousands of service members under your command. Does the law of war manual state that it is prohibited to utter to declare that no quarter be given?

Admiral Brad Cooper: It prohibits a large number of things. It will follow

Crow: I just read the provision to you. I just literally read the provision to you. Does it prohibit you or anyone else from declaring that no quarter be given? I just read it to you.

Cooper: We will follow everything that's in the law.

Crow: Answer the question, Admiral Cooper. You have tens of thousands of service members under your command. I literally just read a provision from the Law of War manual, our own manual. Will you not just say what I just read to you?

Cooper: I will say that we will follow the law of armed conflict to the T.

Crow: This is, this is, this is just unbelievable to me....

References:
[1] Secretary of War Pete Hegseth and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs Air Force Gen. Dan Caine Hold a Press Briefing, March 13, 2026, https://www.war.gov/News/Transcripts/Tr ... ce-gen-da/

[2] US Department of Defense Law of War Manual, June 2015, updated July 2023.
https://media.defense.gov/2023/Jul/31/2 ... 202023.pdf

[3] Transcript of YouTube, CBS News, May 19, 2026 : Tense exchange between Rep. Crow and CENTCOM commander over Iran, rules on quarter for enemies, https://youtu.be/2kIAUFKSc38

---
AI found several examples of such from the 19th century, and from the Vietnam war, and explains:

"What you are observing in the exchange between Rep. Crow and Admiral Cooper is a classic institutional self-preservation mechanism.
When a civilian leader (like a Secretary of Defense) uses illegal wartime rhetoric ("no quarter"), it places the uniform military leadership in a dangerous trap. If the Admiral explicitly agrees with the lawmaker that the Secretary's words describe an illegal war crime, he is publicly rebuking his civilian boss—a violation of the American norm of civilian control of the military. If he agrees with the Secretary, he is endorsing a war crime."

[g.sarkar]

https://sundayguardianlive.com/editors- ... ts-206552/
Quad’s future is tied to what the US wants
Lt Gen Kamal Davar (retd), June 14, 2026
Amid Indo-Pacific rivalries, Quad’s future hinges on strategic cohesion, credibility and American commitment.
Alliances get formed and remain successful only if their strategic constituents and operational drivers remain relevant and mutual trust among the partners prevails despite geopolitical churning. Many alliances, whether defence based or economic in concept, continue to exist in the world with varying degrees of effectiveness—some with credibility while some more or less moribund! At the outset it will be in order to state that in the current geopolitical scenario, unilateralism and bilateralism is gradually giving place to multilateralism with nations, even not so robust standing up to the powerful. Thus, alliances among nations, where equity with others in the alliance is the credo and compatibility in its overall mission and the end objective, will have the chance to succeed.
The Indo-Pacific region encompasses the vast area between the east of the African continent to the Americas. This region is considered universally as “the global center of gravity” for trade, economic growth and importantly, even strategic competition. Roughly 60 per cent of the global maritime trade and 40 per cent of global oil shipments pass through the critical choke points in these waters like the Strait of Malacca through which bulk of the global trade flows. This region is home to four large economies of the world, namely, the US, China, Japan and India. By all standards, the Indo-Pacific has shaped into a theatre for great power competition.
Geographically and militarily, India is the “critical anchor” for maintaining an open, international rules based inclusive region free for global economic order. However, China in this entire region desires unequivocally to dominate it economically and militarily and has some territorial or transit over these waters problems with most of the littoral countries.
In this region, China, undisputedly, as the most assertive, expansionist and transactional power desires to annex Taiwan, some islands held by Japan, Philippines besides economically dominating it while ensuring its own supply chains from Europe and the Gulf region remain in order. It thus sees India as a credible competitor in the Indian Ocean. In addition, a rising Japan, which is gradually augmenting its military strength, is also seen by China as a competitor in the Pacific region. Japan too, especially under the leadership of its new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, who is considered anti-China, is referred by China as an ‘agent provocateur”! She also links the defence of Japan to the defence of Taiwan. In addition, Australia too in the Pacific region, is more than wary of China’s maritime ambitions in the region. The tiny island of Taiwan, anyway, is in perpetual threat from mainland China and does not consider itself in agreement with all those nations, including the US, who subscribe to the “One China policy”. Overall, thus China is seen by most of the nations in the Indo-Pacific region as the disruptive force.
One of the outcomes of the above prognosis was the formation of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue in 2004, though ostensibly, it was for primarily Disaster Relief and transportation of “public goods” like vaccines and sharing of technology. Japan’s PM Shinzo Abe is considered the “intellectual father” of the Quad. In his speech to the Indian Parliament in 2007, Shinzo Abe emphasised on cooperation among nations embellished by the “confluence of Indian plus Pacific Oceans.” Then PM Manmohan Singh joined in 2007 the Quad despite Chinese protests and India also participated along with the US, Japan and Australia in the Malabar naval exercises. However Quad, collapsed in 2008 as PM Kevin Rudd of Australia succumbed to Chinese pressure as the latter was Canberra’s largest trading partner. During the next few years, Quad was relegated to mere dialogue exchanges primarily owing to Chinese pressure.
......
Gautam

[Manish_Sharma]

https://x.com/NewOrder_TV/status/206609 ... 07324?s=20

Dr Andrey Kortunov: ‘War on Iran is a graphic manifestation of the LIMITS OF US POWER’

'The United States should recognise the limits of its power, and the current situation in the Gulf is a very graphic manifestation of these limits.

The US is not the only guy in town. It has to accept that other players might have their own interests, their own views and their own priorities.

Definitely, Trump is primarily about destruction. He's not about building something new. So I'm not sure that the US instincts will shift momentarily.

Maybe another administration should come to power in Washington to formally recognise these limitations of the US power.

India is doing what it believes is best for its own national interests. On some issues, it might keep in mind US priorities and demands. But on other issues, clearly, it will ignore US demands as excessive and unrealistic.'

—Dr Andrey Kortunov, Political Analyst at the Valdai International Discussion Club, on the latest episode of New Order.

Watch the full interview in the quoted post below.

https://x.com/RShivshankar/status/20663 ... 09806?s=20

TRUMP WAS IN SUCH A HURRY TO EXTRICATE THE U.S. THAT HE'S PAID OFF IRAN FOR "PEACE"! NO WONDER NETANYAHU ISN'T ON BOARD.
A $300 bn "reconstruction" commitment pledged to Iran and an upfront $24 bn for agreeing to an MoU!!!
Here's a quick run through of how the Peace MoU is asymmetrically loaded in Iran's favour. Clearly, U.S. is desperate for the war to end.

https://x.com/RShivshankar/status/20663 ... 01887?s=20

PEACE ON IRAN'S TERMS? ISRAEL ISN'T ON BOARD YET. AND U.S. "NON-NEGOTIABLES" NOT ON TABLE?
WHATEVER HAPPENED TO:
+ Verifiable nuclear restrictions.
+ Limits on missile development.
+ Constraints on support to groups such as Hezbollah and other regional proxies.
+ Enhanced inspections and monitoring.
+ Security guarantees for regional partners.

https://x.com/aj_geo_analysis/status/20 ... 43799?s=20

IF this agreement is reached between Iran and USA, this is what Donald Trump likely did during this war:

He spent approx $30 billion USD in American military assets.

The destruction of at least 16 military bases across the Middle East.

The deaths of 13 American soldiers to open the strait of Hormuz and restore it to its original status 106 days later.

Iran will almost likely get at least more money than Obama gave them, and this amount will almost certainly be more than 2+ billion USD and likely a total package of around $100 to $300 billion USD.

Iran emerges more powerful than it was acknowledged before.

Iran is now more powerful in terms of public opinion “support”, more than Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan combined.

What else have I not listed?

[drnayar]

Hedgeye on X: "U.S. debt has surpassed 100% of GDP for the first time since WWII https://t.co/VI1kQTZNuE" / X

[Amber G.]

For those who worship their hero Trump here.

[Amber G.]

Stanford grads walk out as Google CEO Sundar Pichai takes the stage as commencement speaker.