West Asia Crisis — Discussion, Developments, and Bharat’s Strategy

[chetak]

Trump admin, you have a problem.

Your good friend Pakistan appears to have just opened six overland links to Iran, helping the regime bypass your counter-blockade in the Strait of Hormuz.

This will help Iran continue to resist US pressure.

Islamabad double deals America...AGAIN!

[Rudradev]

Trump family could very well be making money hand-over-fist from trade via those overland routes, with Failed Marshal and Sad-buzz getting suitable cuts. It was to facilitate this type of No.2 money-making (from unregulated 'grey' markets and unmonitored trade channels) that Trump/Witkoff's WLF partnered with the "Pakistan Crypto Council" in the first place. Once a crisis has put the official trade mechanisms out of commission, there is profit to be made by regional criminal networks peddling 'solutions'.

The United States will definitely suffer, of course. But surely it's just a coincidence that the United States entered a war with Iran which also provides opportunities to enrich the leader who started that war

[uddu]

US Strikes Iran's Sirik Islands Fanning Hormuz Fire| IRGC Hits Back With Missile Attack On Kuwait
US Strikes Iran's Sirik Islands Fanning Hormuz Fire| IRGC Hits Back With Missile Attack On Kuwait

US conducted strikes on Iranian radar and command and control sites for drones in Iran's Goruk and Qeshm islands over the weekend, the US military said late on Sunday. The strikes were in response to "aggressive Iranian actions that included the shootdown of a US MQ-1 drone that was operating over international waters," the US Central Command said in a post on X.

[uddu]

43 including the apache.
U.S. launches retaliatory strikes after Apache helicopter downed by Iranian drone

[uddu]

IDF BOMBS TEHRAN: Israel Jets Kill IRGC CHIEF Who Issued Provocative Threat? Big Blow To Iran?

[A_Gupta]

Iran's multi-year drought and water crisis.

Iran’s lakes are vanishing: Satellite images show a deepening water crisis
Years of drought, falling rainfall and unsustainable water use have been worsened further by the US-Israel war.
https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2026 ... r-crisis-2

[drnayar]

https://x.com/WarFlash_2630/status/2064599044748722611

[uddu]

^^^Instead of Brahmos, this time it's LRLACM and it's variants. Turkey unnecessarily messed with the wrong country. Their usual Chameleon behaviour, that they use succesfully against U.S and Russia, will not work with India.

[SRajesh]

Looks like OM has stopped the MOAB raining down on Eyeran again.
He has posted that he halted the attack.
Hmm I just wonder what Churan Eyeranian and the Jihadis are feeding him.
For Decades Jihadis have fine tuned the art of fooling and milking the Gringos!!
Looks like they have shared the book or atleast part of the Curriculum with the Eyeranians!!
Blockade will be lifted but Hafta Vasooli will start for rebuilding not only the Eyeranian capabilities but also the Gulf state infra to bypass Hormuz just in case the Black Turbanded New Kut-Mullah get a two year itch and restarts everything!!

[A_Gupta]

This is what Trump posted, and until you hear confirmation from at least one of the countries he names, you should ask what chooran is Trump feeding the world.

Donald Trump
@realDonaldTrump
Truth Social

Based on the fact that discussions with the Islamic Republic of Iran have been brought to the highest level of Iranian leadership and approved, I have, as President of the United States of America, cancelled the scheduled strikes and bombings against Iran this evening. Discussions and final points have been, in both concept and great detail, approved by all parties involved, including the United States, Israel, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Turkey, Pakistan, Bahrain, Kuwait, Jordan, Egypt, and others. The Naval Blockade will remain in full force and effect until this Transaction is finalized — Time and place of the signing to be announced shortly.
DONALD J. TRUMP
PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

[A_Gupta]

Since March 23rd, there are 25+ distinct calendar days, and 38+ distinct venues on which Trump has announced that deal with Iran is imminent.

[drnayar]

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/markets/oil ... -exporter/

The United States has become the world’s largest oil exporter, upending a decades-old order long dominated by Saudi Arabia and Russia, a shift that tightens American companies’ grip on energy markets as Washington’s war with Iran reshapes global energy trade.

European countries have leaned heavily on the United States in the years since the Ukraine war began in 2022. The continent took about 47 per cent of U.S. oil exports so far this year, compared with 37 per cent in 2021.

Asian countries, which used to buy the bulk of their crude from the Middle East, are also now increasingly relying on the U.S. for supplies. Asia accounted for about 46 per cent of U.S. oil exports in May, compared with around 37 per cent last year.

[SRajesh]

^^Second that
EAM in Finland admitted that our main supplier of Gas is USofA!! and not Qatar anymore.
This war appears to have wheels within wheels (nuclear weapons apart)
Are we to assume :
1. US attempt to continue to enforce Bretton-Woods agreement and Dollar Hegemony
2. Break OPEC and sow mistrust amongst the big 3 of the GCC
3. Hit China where it hurts without firing a bullet
4. Make US a net exporter
5. Whilst all this is going on, quietly ensure that the Tech world future is still secure in US grasp
6. Pax Americana and to hell with rest of the world.
The fallout of this could harm the Developing world and the Global South. And the NATO and the Eurotrash are taught a lesson on : Jisski Lati uski Bains!!

[chetak]

^^Second that
EAM in Finland admitted that our main supplier of Gas is USofA!! and not Qatar anymore.
This war appears to have wheels within wheels (nuclear weapons apart)
Are we to assume :
1. US attempt to continue to enforce Bretton-Woods agreement and Dollar Hegemony
2. Break OPEC and sow mistrust amongst the big 3 of the GCC
3. Hit China where it hurts without firing a bullet
4. Make US a net exporter
5. Whilst all this is going on, quietly ensure that the Tech world future is still secure in US grasp
6. Pax Americana and to hell with rest of the world.
The fallout of this could harm the Developing world and the Global South. And the NATO and the Eurotrash are taught a lesson on : Jisski Lati uski Bains!!

SRajesh ji,


the amrikis have openly admitted that like what they did in venezuela, they plan to seize the GCC oil and gas resources and enforce a lock on the energy resources

For sure, India will become a primary target, a major "collateral damage"

[drnayar]

https://www.nst.com.my/business/economy ... t-conflict

The US earned US$8.28 billion from oil exports and US$6.84 billion from refined product exports during the two months of the Middle East conflict, according to RIA Novosti calculations based on US Customs data.

[A_Gupta]

The US is a net exporter of "crude oil and petroleum products" but a net importer of crude oil.

[S_Madhukar]

How long will US stay in Hormuz then? I think OMs neocon 90s cabinet of failed hedge fund managers is hoping to implement Pax Americana using black gold but the theory is stale and will hit domestic wallets more considering they don’t make much at home.

OPEC may be replaced by some American led cartel to enforce the black gold derived $ hegemony a new Bretton Woods since Han has no heart in the fight and Roos is red and cold. Meaning some more years of Treasury bond buying? But how much more can you buy when debt is so inflated .. no one’s falling for stable coins either. But these vassals may be forced into something and if not you get sanctioned and sanctioned how by cutting off access to $ capital as well as black gold.

$+Energy restrictions can bring countries to their knees. Roos+Eyeran were exceptions as they had Energy, they have been sorted. Both Cheen and us depend on them for oil so now we have to negotiate

For India they will unite the opposition and mount something , anything that will tank markets and blow bond yields.

[Amber G.]

Trump says

Iran’s “totally rebuffed Drone attack last night against Indian ships leaving the Hormuz Strait is totally unacceptable. They better get their act together and fast”.

[drnayar]

Trump says

Iran’s “totally rebuffed Drone attack last night against Indian ships leaving the Hormuz Strait is totally unacceptable. They better get their act together and fast”.

[img]https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HKniJrLbYAA ... ame=medium [/img

i have stopped trying to understand what donald duck is saying

[Aditya_V]

It is always peace on Thursday evening Friday morning and a fresh round starts on Saturday/Sunday. Now they are going after Indian crewed ships to and from Oman and UAE.

There is so.e crazy US aim which is hidden.

[Amber G.]

First Indian LNG carrier safely transits Hormuz, say Indian authorities.

[A_Gupta]

Non-conflict in the Gulf plus non-restricted passage through the Strait of Hormuz for all is good for India. I hail the deal. I hope India can resume building up and using the Chabahar port.

President Barack Obama and Secretary of State John Kerry argued that trying to solve every dimension of Iran’s malign behavior in a single agreement would guarantee getting no agreement at all. They were criticized for it - what about Hezbollah? Hamas? Ballistic missiles? etc.

In all that has been said about the current deal, I hear only "nuclear issues" and "Strait of Hormuz". I haven't heard anyone say that Iran's ballistic missiles or proxies are up for negotiation. The Strait of Hormuz was not an issue in Obama's tenure, and became an issue only since February 2026.

Further, this deal tries to tie the hands of Israel, who is not a party to the negotiations or to the deal; so I am not sure this is stable.

Obama was criticized for unfreezing $1.7 billion for Iran (if I remember this was the principal + accumulated interest on a deal that Iran had paid for but the US never delivered because of the Revolution.). The current deal allegedly gives Iran a great deal more.

[Vayutuvan]

Wrong comparison with Obama/Kerry/Iran deal with the current one. Iran's infrastructure has been degraded a lot. Hezbollah leadership has been decimated many times over. Iran's regime that was incumbent in January 2026 was killed, followed by the second set of leaders. Those who followed the second set of leaders are negotiating for peace.

Those negotiating right now are third-rung leaders who were promoted to lead the country in less than 6 months. If they do not hold to the deal, they might get killed. Meanwhile, the US will replenish its weapons while Iran will be busy rebuilding.

What percentage of the scarce resources would they be able to spend on defensive and offensive weapons?

It is not just money that is important. It takes time for them to rebuild their defense infrastructure.

The picture is a lot different from what transpired during the Obama/Kerry time.

[Jay]

Iran's regime that was incumbent in January 2026 was killed, followed by the second set of leaders. Those who followed the second set of leaders are negotiating for peace.

This is a lot of killing, and there is no doubt that there is a threat of even more bloodshed. But what is the point of all this? Is this just killing for its own sake, or is it a means to accomplish something?

[Vayutuvan]

This is a lot of killing, and there is no doubt that there is a threat of even more bloodshed. But what is the point of all this? Is this just killing for its own sake, or is it a means to accomplish something?

Take out the leadership layer by layer. How deep is the mullah leadership? The lower down the hierarchy one goes, the more factions there are. There lies the opportunity for divide-and-conquer. Some can be bought off, others killed, etc.

The indications point to Mossad and CIA having thoroughly infiltrated Iranian and Hezbollah leadership. Even if Iranians had cleaned up some of that, they may have other sleeper cells that will get activated at the right time. It may even be possible that, at Obama's time itself, they laid the groundwork that has come to fruition in 2025. Probably, the security establishment did not want to risk their network during Biden's time, given how incompetently the Afghan exit was handled.

[Amber G.]

Per Al-Arabiya US-Iran MoU to be signed Friday has the following points:

1. Iran & US together with their allies in the current war, declare upon the signing of this MoU an immediate and permanent end to the war on all fronts, including Lebanon, and commit that from now on they will refrain from the threat or use of force against each other. The final agreement will confirm the provisions of this article and remaining articles.

2. Iran & US commit to respect each other's sovereignty and territorial integrity, and to refrain from interfering in each other's internal affairs.

3. Iran & US commit to negotiate and reach a final agreement within a maximum period of 60 days, extendable by mutual consent.

4. Immediately upon the signing of this MoU, US will lift the naval blockade and prevent any interference or obstruction against Iran, and restore traffic within a maximum of 30 days to its full capacity; ship traffic shall be proportional to the pre-war volume of traffic on the part of Iran. The U.S. also commits to withdraw its forces from the surrounding areas within 30 days after the final agreement.

5. Upon signing this MoU, Iran will immediately take steps to ensure that the movement of merchant ships from the Persian Gulf to the Sea of ​​Oman and vice versa is resumed within 30 days to the pre-war volume, taking into account the need for the removal of technical obstacles and the neutralization of mines by Iran.

6. The U.S. commits, together with its regional partners, to create a comprehensive plan agreed upon by both parties for the rehabilitation and economic development of Iran, While ensuring financing of at least $300 billion. The implementation mechanism of this plan, as part of the final agreement, will be formulated within 60 days.

7. The U.S. commits to ending, on a schedule to be agreed upon as part of the final agreement, all types of sanctions currently facing Iran, including resolutions of the UN Security Council and the Board of Governors of the IAEA, and all unilateral U.S. sanctions, both primary and secondary.

8. Iran reiterates that it will never produce nuclear weapons. Iran & the U.S. have agreed that the fate of enriched material and all other mutually agreed nuclear-related issues, including Iran’s nuclear needs, will be adequately addressed in a final agreement; the final agreement will confirm the provisions of this article.

9. Iran & US agree that, pending a final agreement, they will maintain the status quo: Iran will maintain the status quo on its nuclear program, and the U.S. will not impose new sanctions on Iran or strengthen its forces in the region.

10. The US commits that immediately after the signing of this MoU, and until the date of the lifting of sanctions, the U.S. Treasury will issue waivers for exports of Iranian crude oil, petrochemical products and their derivatives, and all related services, including banking, insurance, transportation, etc.

11. The US commits that, in light of the progress of negotiations towards a final agreement, frozen or restricted funds and assets of Iran will be released and made fully available. These funds, whether held in the master account or transferred, will be used for any final beneficiary payment determined by the Central Bank of Iran and will be fully available for use. The U.S. undertakes to issue all necessary permits and licenses on this basis.

12. Iran & the U.S. agree that an implementation mechanism will be established to oversee the successful implementation of and future commitment to the final agreement.

13. Following the signing of this MoU, and upon receipt of assurances regarding the commencement of implementation of article 4, 5, 10, & 11 of this MoU, and the continued implementation of these steps, Iran & the U.S. will enter into negotiations for a Final Agreement solely with respect to the remaining Articles.

14. The final agreement will be approved through a binding resolution of the UN Security Council.

[A_Gupta]

So much better than the JCPOA!

/sarc

Let's see if the carrots of sanctions relief, funding, and investment work better this time. Also maybe IRGC instead of a venerable Ayatollah being in control of Iran means materialistic lures can work.

With JCPOA:
the U.S.:
- Suspended major nuclear‑related secondary sanctions
- Removed dozens of Iranian banks, shipping firms, and energy entities from sanctions lists
- Issued general licenses enabling aircraft sales, financial transactions, and limited imports

But these sanctions remained:
* U.S. companies still could not do business with Iran
* U.S. banks still could not clear Iranian transactions
* U.S. persons still could not invest in Iran
* The U.S. trade embargo remained intact

Why they remained:

The primary embargo is based on terrorism, human rights, and other statutes — not nuclear issues.

----

For India:
1. Ability to buy Iranian oil if it wants to, with no fear of sanctions,
2. Use of the Chabahar Port and the in-effect of the 10-year agreement signed in 2024,
3. Ability to bid on Iran reconstruction projects
4. Exports

AI predicts: "If U.S. and EU sanctions vanished tomorrow, India–Iran trade would likely expand to $25–40 billion annually, driven by energy imports and Indian exports of machinery, pharmaceuticals, food products, and engineering goods. The structure of trade would resemble India’s commerce with other large energy suppliers (e.g., Saudi Arabia, UAE), but with a heavier emphasis on refined petroleum products, agro‑processing, and industrial machinery."

[Vayutuvan]

The primary embargo is based on terrorism, human rights, and other statutes — not nuclear issues.

Human Rights: What human rights issues in KSA Obama addressed in his two terms? All he did was to give lectures to India right after he was given a warm welcome at the Indian Republic Day Parade.
Terrorism: He killed Osama at a time that was helpful to him and his party. US Intelligence would have known his whereabouts as soon as he had entered Paistan.
Other Statutes: So, you do not have specifics of those statutes, I presume.

All the above are manageable. Moreover, a common US citizen wouldn't care a damn about human rights in Iran.

Nuclear Issues: That is the crux of the problem. Once Iran gets Nucs, there is no stopping them. It would be 108 x Pakistan. They have the money, political will, and technology to extinguish Israel and threaten kaffir India.

[Jay]

Take out the leadership layer by layer. How deep is the mullah leadership? The lower down the hierarchy one goes, the more factions there are. There lies the opportunity for divide-and-conquer. Some can be bought off, others killed, etc.

It is a good strategy and no doubt it has been in the works for a long time, but why do this, what is the end game? It is a civilization war the US wants to be seen winning against Islam? Is it colonization by a different name?

From Israel's POV, I get. Why US?

[Vayutuvan]

Colonization, ofc. Secure energy resources for the US/the West and deny them to China/India.

Trump is saying that the US caused 1 trillion USD damage to Iran. It will take a lot of time to rebuild. Everybody is being invited to invest in Iran.

Just the other day, two people were caught planning to drone attack the UFC (UCF? whatever) championship game that took place near/in WHOTUS campus.

Trump is being sent a message?!!!

[Amber G.]

So much better than the JCPOA!
...


The primary embargo is based on terrorism, human rights, and other statutes — not nuclear issues.

-

But.. But... But... The stable Genius and hero of some s just said...

Says Iran Has Right to Nuclear Program

Trump now says it’s just “common sense” for Iran to have a nuclear program.

"After Months of War, Trump Says Iran Has Right to Nuclear Program"..

We all remember Trump’s previous claims during the war ..r months of insisting that the purpose of the war was to get rid of any nuclear capability ... demanding “zero enrichment,” ... Now Trump is saying that the country can use nuclear power for electricity..

Now if a final peace deal between Iran and the U.S. doesn’t have any restrictions on the country’s nuclear program, it will be so much better than that Barak Hussain Obama's the 2015 JCPOA agreement..

JCPOA agreement was drafted not only between the U.S. and Iran, but the other members of the U.N. Security Council, including China, Russia, the U.K., and the European Union. This deal was negotiated ( without Congress even being aware of the details) Iran will likely be receiving $300 billion in reconstruction funds..

[Amber G.]

Not surprising the true bhakts are talking .. even in this thread .. about

"What......Obama ,, blah blah .. Husain..Dumbocrats ..?

Here is something for them to read:
>>>Donald Trump bragged about Barack Obama’s supposed stupidity during his own deal with Iran ...

Trump Calls Obama a “Son of a B*tch” After Disastrous Iran Deal Leaked

[saip]

What is the cost of the Iran war for US tax payers? A trillion dollars? No skin of the Orange Monkey's nose. Another war proudly stopped (ninth, tenth but who is counting?)

[Amber G.]

Sharing: Kasparov
Garry Kasparov is the founder and chairman of the Renew Democracy Initiative, which publishes The Next Move... (He is ex chess world champion

When I wrote my column on Monday, the terms of the US-Iran deal to end the war remained as yet unknown. Early reports offered enough color to weigh in, but there were still voices cautioning patience.

“Don’t rush to pass judgment on the Trump administration,” ran the refrain. “Wait until you see what the actual document says.”

Well, now we have the actual document: a 14-point Memorandum of Understanding set to be signed on Friday. Read on as I break down the agreement, point by point.

P.S.: I will give Trump’s defenders this: The MOU is certainly different from some of the early reports. By that, I mean to say—the actual thing is worse than expected. Every surrender featured in the leaks is in the final draft, yet somehow even more egregious than rumored. The document is a dramatic capitulation in a war that should not have been launched in the manner that it was.

1: The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States, together with their allies in the current war, declare upon the signing of this Memorandum of Understanding an immediate and permanent end to the war on all fronts, including Lebanon, and undertake that from now on they will not launch any hostile action against each other, and will refrain from the threat or use of force against each other. The final agreement will confirm the provisions of this Article and the remaining Articles.

There are two key points here: “together with their allies” and “Lebanon.”

First: Lebanon. The latest war in Lebanon began when Hezbollah, unprovoked, joined Hamas’s assault against Israel on October 8, 2023—just a day after the massacre in southern Israel.

You can criticize the Israeli government’s conduct, but it’s clear that Lebanon would have been spared the misery of war had Hezbollah not dragged the country into an Israeli-Palestinian (note, not Lebanese) conflict. However, that would have run contrary to the Iranian regime’s wishes.

Now, after two-and-a-half years, the Trump administration is forcing a US ally, Israel, to end that fight on terms favorable to the enemy.

On to the question of allies: Who are Iran’s allies? Hezbollah. The Houthis. Hamas. Will these terrorist organizations—lawless groups accountable to no one but their masters in Tehran— “end the war on all fronts”? My instinct, and Hezbollah’s latest drone attack, suggest that the answer is a resounding “no.”

2: The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States undertake to respect each other’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, and to refrain from interfering in each other’s internal affairs.

Here’s a funny joke! I’m not sure that either side actually believes this one. Does interfering in each other’s internal affairs include assassinating American citizens on American soil, as the Islamic Republic has tried to do on multiple occasions by sending hitmen after my friend Masih Alinejad? Is Trump aware that the Iranian government tried to kill him?

3: The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States undertake to negotiate and reach a final agreement within a maximum period of 60 days, extendable by mutual consent.

There are three possibilities with this one.

The first is that there actually is a final agreement in 60 days. If the text of this MOU is any indication, that agreement will be a weak one.

The next option is that the Trump administration gives Iran more and more time, generously extending the window for a hostile foreign dictatorship. Remember Trump’s fearsome 12-day ultimatum for Russia to reach a ceasefire in Ukraine? A whole lot of nothing happened after that deadline expired last summer.

Finally, there’s the possibility that this all falls apart and the parties return to the warpath. As with the 2015 nuclear deal, this MOU leaves the fundamental questions in the fraught US-Iran relationship unresolved.

Yet this deal is even weaker—and it comes fresh off of a war that left the Iranian regime battered but not broken. Next time, the Iranians will set the terms: the Trump administration is limited in what it can do before the midterm elections, and Tehran knows that closing the Strait of Hormuz works as a means of extracting concessions from America.

4: Immediately upon the signing of this Memorandum of Understanding, the United States will lift the naval blockade and prevent any interference or obstruction against the Islamic Republic of Iran, and restore traffic within a maximum of 30 days to its full capacity; the traffic of ships shall be proportional to the pre-war volume of traffic on the part of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The United States also undertakes to withdraw its forces from the surrounding areas within 30 days after the final agreement.

The Treaty of Versailles carried its infamous “war guilt clause,” pinning sole blame for the First World War on Imperial Germany. This paragraph is the MOU’s “war loss clause,” stating plainly that Iran defeated the United States.

Iran gets the blockade lifted just for signing the MOU. If a final agreement is indeed signed, Tehran gets even more—the withdrawal of US forces “from the surrounding areas.” It’s a full-on retreat. The United States cedes its most potent form of leverage to Iran “immediately”—it’s the very first word of paragraph four.

5: Upon signing this Memorandum of Understanding, the Islamic Republic of Iran will immediately take steps to ensure that the movement of merchant ships from the Persian Gulf to the Sea of Oman and vice versa is resumed within 30 days to the pre-war volume, taking into account the need for the removal of technical obstacles and the neutralization of mines by Iran.

This leaves the opening of the Strait of Hormuz up to Iran. Per the previous paragraph, which envisions an immediate termination of the blockade and an eventual complete US withdrawal, third-party enforcement is off the table. In other words, the hostage-taker gets to decide the manner in which they release their captive. And this is supposed to inspire confidence?

6: The United States undertakes, together with its regional partners, to create a comprehensive plan agreed upon by both parties for the rehabilitation and economic development of the Islamic Republic of Iran, while ensuring financing of at least $300 billion. The implementation mechanism of this plan, as part of the final agreement, will be formulated within 60 days.

As I noted in my column on Monday, anything involving Donald Trump and large sums of money reeks of corruption. Earlier reports suggested that the $300 billion for the reconstruction fund would come from the Gulf Arab states, where Trump and his family have all sorts of conflicts of interest.

The text of the MOU isn’t so specific: Not only is there room for fishy business deals in the Gulf, it’s also possible that the US could end up directly paying reparations to an enemy.

Congress must ensure that not a cent of American taxpayer money goes to an Iranian regime that murders its own people, destabilizes its neighbors, and supplies weapons for Russia’s genocidal war of aggression in Ukraine.

7: The United States of America undertakes to terminate all types of sanctions against the Islamic Republic of Iran, including the United Nations Security Council resolutions, IAEA Board of Governors resolutions, and all unilateral US sanctions, primary and secondary, in an agreed upon schedule as part of the final deal. The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States of America acknowledge the critical importance of the sanctions termination issue above mentioned, and expressed their intentions to immediately address these issues in the negotiations in order to achieve mutual agreement on them.

Here we see surrender in the form of the termination of “all types of sanctions” on Iran. Granted, this is left to a final deal whose ultimate fate remains up in the air, but it’s a declaration of the Trump administration’s intentions.

It all probably feels unthinkable to those who staked their hopes for a free Iran on Donald Trump. Just months after the Iranian authorities murdered tens of thousands of protesters, the administration is dangling total sanctions relief in front of the regime. However, wannabe-strongman Trump has already legitimized dictators in Russia, China, and North Korea. Iran is next on his normalization agenda.

Decades of normalization between the West and Putin’s Russia have already been difficult to undo, even after the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. There is a lot of money on the line for companies and craven businesspeople who put the bottom line ahead of any moral red lines. The reintegration of Iran into the global economy would mean that if sanctions are imposed again in the future, there will be many companies and countries that have a vested interest in non-compliance.

At least that sanctions relief for the Islamic Republic is still somewhere off in the future. It’s not something that kicks in right away—right? Right?

8: The Islamic Republic of Iran reaffirms that it shall not procure or develop nuclear weapons. The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran have agreed to resolve the disposition of stockpiled enriched material pursuant to a mechanism that will be mutually agreed upon in accordance with the schedule mentioned in paragraph seven, with the minimum methodology to be down blended on site under the supervision of the IAEA. The two parties also agreed to discuss the issue of enrichment and other mutually agreed matters related to the Islamic Republic of Iran’s nuclear needs, based on a satisfactory framework being agreed upon in the final deal. The final deal will confirm the provisions of this paragraph. The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran acknowledge the critical importance of the nuclear issues above mentioned. They express their intention to immediately address these issues in the negotiations in order to achieve mutual agreement on them.

Donald Trump and I share this in common: We both criticized the 2015 nuclear deal negotiated under President Obama, also known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action or JCPOA. In his first term, Trump even withdrew from that agreement.

Trump is now hurtling towards a nuclear deal even flimsier than the one he blasted for being too weak. The Iranian government doesn’t just get diplomatic and financial reprieve on the nuclear file, it gets it in the context of a US surrender after a failed war.

9: Pending the final deal, the United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran agree to maintain the status quo. The Islamic Republic of Iran will maintain the current status quo of its nuclear program, and the United States of America will not impose any new sanctions and will not deploy additional forces in the region.

Here the United States boxes itself in. Iran gets to revert to the status quo ante on the nuclear issue, while getting a commitment of no additional US forces in the region. Meanwhile, the Iranian regime has plenty of non-nuclear means of wreaking havoc in the region.

10: The United States of America undertakes that immediately upon the signing of this MOU and until the termination of sanctions, US Department of Treasury will issue waivers for the export of Iranian crude oil, petroleum products and derivatives, and all associated services, including banking transactions, insurances, transportation, etc.

After reading paragraph seven, you might be forgiven for thinking that the massive sanctions relief that Washington is planning for the Islamic Republic will depend upon Iran meeting some conditions. At the very least, that payday would have to wait for the much-talked-about final agreement.

Well, just a few paragraphs later, we learn that this is actually incorrect. This administration just can’t help itself: the sanctions waivers start right away, once again, with no enforcement mechanism to make that “yuge” concession worth the cost.

11: The United States of America undertakes to make fully available for use the frozen or restricted funds and assets of the Islamic Republic of Iran upon the implementation of this MOU. The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran will mutually agree on the procedures related to the release of these funds during negotiations. Such funds, whether retained in the original account or transferred, shall be made fully usable for payment to any ultimate beneficiary designated by the Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The United States of America undertakes to issue all necessary licenses and authorizations accordingly.

At this point, I am expecting to see a new Trump Tower rise over the Tehran skyline.

12: The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran agree that an executive mechanism will be established to monitor the successful implementation of this MOU and the future compliance of the final deal.

Once more, we have to ask: Where is the enforcement? Why is enforcement not included directly in the text of the deal?

13: After signing this MOU, and subject to the beginning of the implementation of paragraphs 1, 4, 5, 10 and 11 of this MOU, and the continuing implementation of these measures, the United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran will start negotiations regarding the final deal exclusively on the other paragraphs.

Excuse me—”the United States of America and Iran will start negotiations”? What is there left for Iran to negotiate over? The MOU is already an incredible windfall for Iran and defeat for the US, even without a final agreement. America is in deep trouble if the Iranian leadership is familiar with the phrase “take the money and run.”

14: The final deal will be endorsed by a binding United Nations Security Council resolution.

Ah, that changes everything! The United Nations is a famously reliable institution, quite proficient at preventing and ending wars. I retract all of my critiques of Trump’s deal with Iran. Carry on (that is, unless Trump defunds the UN before it ratifies his own agreement).

[Manish_Sharma]

How thoroughly usa has been defeated:

https://nitishastra.substack.com/p/empi ... t-how-iran

Empire at the Chokepoint: How Iran shattered American-Israeli myth of invincibility
Navroop Singh and Himja Parekh
Jun 16, 2026

When the memorandum of understanding between Washington and Tehran was announced on 14th June 2026....

---------------

https://nitishastra.substack.com/p/the- ... how-the-us

The Geneva Compromise: How the U.S.-Iran MoU hands Iran a Strategic Victory
Navroop Singh and Himja Parekh
Jun 15, 2026

The ensuing developments in the Middle East have culminated in a watershed geopolitical moment, fundamentally redrawing the balance of power in the region.....

[Vayutuvan]

What is the cost of the Iran war for US tax payers? A trillion dollars? No skin of the Orange Monkey's nose. Another war proudly stopped (ninth, tenth but who is counting?)

“off”?! MENSA IQ hain?!

[Vayutuvan]

Not surprising the true bhakts are talking .. even in this thread .. about

"What......Obama ,, blah blah .. Husain..Dumbocrats ..?

Here is something for them to read:
>>>Donald Trump bragged about Barack Obama’s supposed stupidity during his own deal with Iran ...

Trump Calls Obama a “Son of a B*tch” After Disastrous Iran Deal Leaked

Please do make sense without taking the help of Goog AI.

[putnanja]

If US can backstab Israel, no country can ally with US and be considered safe. The MOU contains no words on Hezbollah stopping attacks on Israel, but contains statements to stop violating Lebanon's soverignity. And on top of that, giving $300b+ to Iran to aid in reconstructing!

At this rate, it is better to be enemy of US, attack it and then claim reimbursement rather than be an ally and get sold-out. US need to beware, as Pakistan will be trying to think how it can pull off an Iran on US and get some beekh! Their tactical masterminds will be working overtime

[g.sarkar]

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/iran/ira ... ESPZZ006U3
Iran Won the War but May Lose the Peace
Tehran Is Poised to Overplay Its Hand
Nate Swanson, June 18, 2026
When the United States and Israel launched their war on Iran in late February, the regime in Tehran was in an unprecedented position of weakness. It faced existential economic and environmental crises, diminished defensive capabilities, and internal turmoil and external scrutiny following a brutal January crackdown on protests that killed thousands of its own people. But after 40 days of war and two months of shaky cease-fire, the Islamic Republic has emerged intact, emboldened, and armed with a new deterrent that appears even more powerful than all the weapons its adversaries damaged with airstrikes: its control over the Strait of Hormuz. In late April, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio acknowledged that the strait had become Iran's “economic nuclear weapon.” The world now understands that if Iran is attacked, it will shut the strait, disrupting energy markets worldwide.
Put plainly, U.S. President Donald Trump lost both the war and the negotiations to end it. But if Tehran overplays its hand, it could lose the peace that follows. The memorandum of understanding signed by Iran and the United States postpones the resolution of most of the difficult issues (including restrictions on Iran’s nuclear program) to a 60-day negotiating period. But the situation in the Strait of Hormuz will be far more difficult to finesse than most realize. The MOU will provide for the safe passage of commercial vessels at no charge for 60 days while Iran and, presumably, the United States seek to define the strait’s postwar administration. But whether a final deal is struck or not, Iran has made clear that it intends to impose new restrictions and fees on commercial vessels transiting the Strait after the negotiation period ends. Iran’s lead negotiator, Speaker of the Parliament Mohammad Ghalibaf, said outright that “the Strait of Hormuz will never return to its previous condition” and “naturally, we will charge fees in return for the services we provide.”
It is understandable why such an arrangement would tempt Iran. The country suffered immense economic damage during the war, and it is eager to quash any lingering notions that it is weak. But pressing for a status quo that does not fully open the Strait of Hormuz to all maritime traffic without fees or tolls risks undermining Iran’s newfound deterrence and makes a return to conflict more likely. It could upend global shipping permanently and, by accelerating the world’s effort to find alternative routes, lower the costs Iran’s adversaries face in launching a future war. The Strait of Hormuz could thus become the locus of postwar instability. And just as Trump overestimated his strategic advantage when he launched the war, Tehran could be poised to make the same mistake now that the war has ended.
DEAL OR NO DEAL
The 14-point U.S.-Iranian MOU codifies the tenuous cease-fires in Iran and Lebanon, affirms that Iran will not pursue nuclear weapons, and pledges that the United States will immediately end its naval blockade and issue Treasury Department waivers, permitting Iran to sell its oil. It also outlines the parameters of a hypothetical final deal, including full sanctions relief in return for the disposition of Iran’s highly enriched uranium and an unspecified understanding related to future Iranian enrichment.
But although the document mentions a resumption of shipping from the Persian Gulf to the Sea of Oman, nuclear concessions by Iran, and sanctions relief, it leaves the details to be determined. And substantial obstacles make it unlikely that a final agreement will be reached within 60 days—or ever. Washington has not demonstrated the patience necessary to complete a complicated nuclear deal that requires new monitoring and verification measures. The United States’ current sanctions regime against Iran, designed during Trump’s first term, was expressly conceived to prevent a return to a nuclear deal by employing overlapping sanctions designations under multiple authorities, intentionally creating legal and bureaucratic complexities. It will take creativity to unravel.
Iran's new leaders also may not want anything beyond a small, transactional deal with the United States. They do not trust Trump’s commitment to a large deal, given his 2018 withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action three years after its establishment and the fact that the United States and Israel killed Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei’s father, mother, wife, and son. The MOU’s terms favor Iran, but the gulf between the final conditions Tehran and Washington are willing to accept may be so large that a full deal becomes impossible. Finally, Israel may use its influence to block or undermine a broader deal, especially if the terms are as disadvantageous to it as reporting suggests.
.......
Gautam

[drnayar]

If US can backstab Israel, no country can ally with US and be considered safe. The MOU contains no words on Hezbollah stopping attacks on Israel, but contains statements to stop violating Lebanon's soverignity. And on top of that, giving $300b+ to Iran to aid in reconstructing!

At this rate, it is better to be enemy of US, attack it and then claim reimbursement rather than be an ally and get sold-out. US need to beware, as Pakistan will be trying to think how it can pull off an Iran on US and get some beekh! Their tactical masterminds will be working overtime