Agni-I/SR: Strategic Implications (Thread 2)

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 03 Feb 2002 04:23

Frontline article on Agni-I : The significance of Agni-I By T.S.R Subramanian. Good read.

Peeyoosh · Post by **Peeyoosh** » 03 Feb 2002 05:06

Any idea on the relative cost? From what I know the Prithvi is an expensive system to maintain (other than the fact that it is inherently destablizing by telegrapghing intentions and encouraging thoughts of a 1st strike). The longer range Agni is expensive to build and can send mixed signals to the PRC - large numbers may cause reactions that are not intended. Could the increased stability this system offers vis-a-vis the PRC be the reaosn for muted criticism from the US and the PRC? Could this logic be etended to US Carrier Groups in the Arabian Sea, Indian Ocean?This system is likely to be very cost effective and unambigious in its targetting, while not being provcative by its very deployment.Finally, if the reports of the nuke subs on lease are true, wonder what we will put in them?Finally - are we moving away from air dropped weapons? With all these missiles around what is the role of teh JAgs and the Mirages?Peeyoosh

Div · Post by **Div** » 03 Feb 2002 05:55

Imo the emergence of this new missile should take some pressure off the IAF. The IAF can now take the Migs and Jags out of the nuclear role and maybe just work with a small number of Mirage 2000s (if the 10 new ones are Ds that would be nice

) and maintain a high state of alert on them. I feel that the Mirages are reliable machines and are better suited to be in such a state than any other IAF aircraft.

Rudra · Post by **Rudra** » 03 Feb 2002 06:38

The nuke subs if ever they arrive will have Klub
for start. Later Brahmos.

RanjanRoy · Post by **RanjanRoy** » 03 Feb 2002 06:42

Ramana interesting post

So the weight is 12 Ton.

shashidhar · Post by **shashidhar** » 03 Feb 2002 06:44

With the chinese supplying M-9s to our beloved western neighbour,I feel a similar missile (better) with a chance of being offloaded in taipei should send signals in the right direction.China must behave more responsibly.

Arun_S · Post by **Arun_S** » 03 Feb 2002 08:48

Now with this data:quote:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The 15-metre-tall, 12-tonne, single-stage missile powered by solid propellant fuel reached an altitude of 300 km, re-entered the atmosphere and splashed down in the Bay of Bengal. The guidance and re-entry systems worked with clock-work precision.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------The 700Km range with 300Km max altitude and 2 Ton RV (roughly translates to payload of ~1700Kg)
shows that the missile was fired in a sub optimal trajectory. Pretty much in line with our investigation & discussion on this thread.So here is the how the 12 Ton missile got to 700Km range and 300Km altitude. Launched at 62 degrees instead of the optimum ~45 degrees.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Payload = 2,250.0 Kg, Number of Stages = 1, Simulation Time Granularity = 0.500 Second
Launch Direction = 270 degrees-North, Launch Latitude = 30.00 degreesSegment-Name ISP(Vac) ISP(SL) Stage-Mass Fuel-Fract Burn-Time Thrust-Direction
Stage1 264.0 229.0, 10,000.0 0.845 050.0 Sec 62.0 Degree Stage Event Time-Sec Time-HH:MM:SS Range Altitude LOS-Range LOS-Azimuth LOS-Elevation Velocity V-angle
Stage1 BURNOUT 50.50 0:0:50 28,688 42,343 51,149 269.918 55.350 2,391.762 65.091
PAYLOAD ON-PEAK 290.50 0:4:50 353,685 298,970 469,403 268.671 37.923 968.635 -0.143
PAYLOAD ON-TARGET 549.00 0:9:9 704,124 -685 703,941 267.316 -3.235 2,556.601 -66.629 And here is how it is expected to perform at maximum range with 2 ton RV (~1700Kg payload) : Range:- 837Km, Max.Altitude: 180 Km
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Payload = 2,250.0 Kg, Number of Stages = 1, Simulation Time Granularity = 0.500 Second
Launch Direction = 270 degrees-North, Launch Latitude = 30.00 degreesSegment-Name ISP(Vac) ISP(SL) Stage-Mass Fuel-Fract Burn-Time Thrust-Direction
Stage1 264.0 229.0, 10,000.0 0.85 050.0 Sec 45.0 Degree Stage Event Time-Sec Time-HH:MM:SS Range Altitude LOS-Range LOS-Azimuth LOS-Elevation Velocity V-angle
Stage1 BURNOUT 50.50 0:0:50 43,311 31,511 53,695.162 269.854 35.476 2,379.089 43.675 105.8913
PAYLOAD ON-PEAK 233.50 0:3:54 421,726 180,446 464,205.473 268.245 20.940 1,681.651 -0.090
PAYLOAD ON-TARGET 434.50 0:7:14 837,375 -639 836,945.880 266.477 -3.819 2,504.036 -46.319 ====================
And with 1.25 Ton payload, the range is 1237 Km. Max Altitude: 277 Km
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Payload = 1,250.0 Kg, Number of Stages = 1, Simulation Time Granularity = 0.500 Second
Launch Direction = 270 degrees-North, Launch Latitude = 30.00 degreesSegment-Name ISP(Vac) ISP(SL) Stage-Mass Fuel-Fract Burn-Time Thrust-Direction
Stage1 264.0 229.0, 10,000.0 0.85 050.0 Sec 45.0 Degree Stage Event Time-Sec Time-HH:MM:SS Range Altitude LOS-Range LOS-Azimuth LOS-Elevation Velocity V-angle
Stage1 BURNOUT 50.50 0:0:50 49,284 37,551 62,116.144 269.826 36.742 2,939.272 43.987
PAYLOAD ON-PEAK 288.50 0:4:48 622,531 277,163 693,575.078 267.320 20.709 2,038.653 -0.093
PAYLOAD ON-TARGET 543.50 0:9:4 1,237,504 -238 1,235,760.989 264.650 -5.579 3,058.570 -45.931
=========================================Indicating that Agni-I can reach countries west of TSP.

Priyank · Post by **Priyank** » 03 Feb 2002 12:53

Arun,It seems that we have tested the Agni-I as well as the Agni-II at sub optimal trajectories due to which they do not achieve their maximum possible ranges. Is this why the GoI says that the missile was tested at a "simulated range" of x kilometers but actually reached a range of y kilometers?If this is so, what could be the reason(s) for doing it? The only one that I can think of is to limit the usual theatrics of the State Department, European Union, Japan, China, TSP etc. I find this highly unlikely as I am certain that the U.S. would be tracking the path of the missile from launch to impact and would know that it was fired at a sub optimal trajectory. Any thoughts from other BR members?Is it also possible that you screwed up somewhere in programming your ballistic missile simulator? (I do not mean to offend you by that question.) Have you tried using it for ballistic missiles that have open source information available on them and then comparing the simulated and actual results? (Again, I do not intend to lecture you.)These were just some thoughts that I had ever since I was a lurker here.

I remember an archived thread about the Agni-II when you first created your ballistic missile simulator and tried it out for the Agni-II.

Roop · Post by **Roop** » 03 Feb 2002 20:11

<blockquote>quote:<hr>Originally posted by Arun_S:
Indicating that Agni-I can reach countries west of TSP.<hr></blockquote>Yes. Or (if you look at it another way) indicating a much wider choice of available bases within the length and breadth of India to base the missile, if you want to reach only Pakistan.

Avid · Post by **Avid** » 03 Feb 2002 22:57

ok what have I missed here?? This is the report from DAWN for Feb 3, 2002Did I miss out something ??? Here it goes.... http://www.dawn.com/2002/02/03/top1.htm
....
The foreign minister condemned India for conducting new missile tests, the second series in less than a week, saying the move was unwise and unwarranted. "At a time when a spark can ignite a conflagration, the situation calls for exercise of restraint and responsibility," he told the conference. "India's decision to test-fire two ballistic missiles was both unwise and unwarranted. It deserved international criticism and censure," Sattar said. He said: "Tension is dangerously high. Efforts of common friends to defuse the crisis have led to a certain political de-escalation. But the deployment of such large forces in close proximity has inherent dangers." ===================Test-fire two(???) - when did the second test within a week happen?? I could not find any news anywhere about it.Are the pakis ready with their statement before we even test-fire???

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 03 Feb 2002 23:27

<blockquote>quote:<hr>Did I miss out something ???
Here's excertp of a report from DAWN:http://www.dawn.com/2002/02/03/top1.htm
....
The foreign minister condemned India for conducting new missile tests, the second series in less than a week, saying the move was unwise and unwarranted. "At a time when a spark can ignite a conflagration, the situation calls for exercise of restraint and responsibility," he told the conference. "India's decision to test-fire two ballistic missiles was both unwise and unwarranted. It deserved international criticism and censure," Sattar said. He said: "Tension is dangerously high. Efforts of common friends to defuse the crisis have led to a certain political de-escalation. But the deployment of such large forces in close proximity has inherent dangers." ===================Test-fire two(???) - when did the second test within a week happen?? I could not find any news anywhere about it. <hr></blockquote>I had come across a single sentence reference in USA Today last week - I think it was the Wed issue. The article was about 4-6 sentences long and did say India had tested for a second time - the day after the first test. Since I did not see any refs in any of the Indian papers I did not post the article.

Roop · Post by **Roop** » 03 Feb 2002 23:36

As I said to Avid in the other thread, the Pakis are probably referring to the Trishul test.

Arun_S · Post by **Arun_S** » 04 Feb 2002 00:36

Priyank_Patel --- Not to worry on the integrity of the rocket simulator. FYI the previous rocket simulator version was designed for ranges less then 6000Km over a period of time (being finally ready in 2000)and was cross checked with public data. Since Nov-2001 the newer version is a full 3D simulator designed from First Principel(suitable for even orbital launchers) it has been cross checked as well it has validated the accuracy of previous version of the simulator.

Priyank · Post by **Priyank** » 04 Feb 2002 01:23

Arun,Just call me Priyank. I take your word on the ballistic missile simulator.I guess you just gave Mushy and his fellow generals, the Chinese commies and other near and dear neighbours one more reason to behave decently.

On to more serious matters. Can you think of any reason why we always test ballistic missiles at sub optimal trajectories. I could think of only one in my previous post but I find that to be highly unlikely. - Priyank

ArunK · Post by **ArunK** » 04 Feb 2002 01:36

Sattar is talking about the subsequent Trishul tests. Not to be confused with the raging controversy of the "smooth" RV photo in DD.================
Added later:As Mohan Raju siad. No point deleting this now.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 04 Feb 2002 02:33

Has anyone seen the pictures of the very first Agni-I in 1989? I would like to see if there are any comparisons.

Amitabh · Post by **Amitabh** » 04 Feb 2002 02:44

Er... how come people missed this little line in the Frontline article? <blockquote>quote:<hr>Adding to India's missile strength in the near future will be Agni-III. It will have a range of 3,500 km and its first flight may take place in a few months. <hr></blockquote>

ragupta · Post by **ragupta** » 04 Feb 2002 03:09

<blockquote>quote:<hr>Originally posted by Amitabh:
Er... how come people missed this little line in the Frontline article? <hr></blockquote>Santanam, in the india defense consultant article, says that it could be at the end of 2003. so who's correct?

Sanjay · Post by **Sanjay** » 04 Feb 2002 07:40

Gentlemen,
Some help if you please.
Dr. Kalam, in an interview with Paul Beaver of Jane's at Aero India 1998 indicated that the range of Agni-2 was 3700km with a 1000kg payload.
Here's where I need some help:Take 3 possible max. ranges of Agni-23700km
3500km
3000kmCould somebody please advise me where Agni would need to be located - and in what state to hit Beijing from each of those ranges ?Thanks a lot - no map at my disposal at present !
I posted this as a separate thread ,but at Sunil's request I'm merging this into this thread.

Guest · Post by **Guest** » 04 Feb 2002 07:41

Topic: Agni-2 range
Sanjay
Member
Member # 226
posted February 03, 2002 08:02 PM
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Gentlemen,
Some help if you please.
Dr. Kalam, in an interview with Paul Beaver of Jane's at Aero India 1998 indicated that the range of Agni-2 was 3700km with a 1000kg payload.
Here's where I need some help:Take 3 possible max. ranges of Agni-23700km
3500km
3000kmCould somebody please advise me where Agni would need to be located - and in what state to hit Beijing from each of those ranges ?Thanks a lot - no map at my disposal at present ! 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
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sunil sainis
Member
Member # 1433
posted February 03, 2002 08:08 PM
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
merge with existing thread please.
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reggie
Member
Member # 357
posted February 03, 2002 08:09 PM
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Try this site:
http://www.rand.org/publications/IP/IP192/ 
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All times are Pacific Time

Sanjay · Post by **Sanjay** » 04 Feb 2002 07:45

I saw the Rand piece when it was finished and it doesn't help at all.
We have real range estimates of Agni from Dr. Kalam and should try to consider the implications.
Thanks for the help though.

Peeyoosh · Post by **Peeyoosh** » 04 Feb 2002 08:35

SanjayBiejing to New Delhi is around 3700 km., if that helps.Use : http://russia.shaps.hawaii.edu/ap-distance-calc.htmlPeeyoosh

geeth · Post by **geeth** » 04 Feb 2002 08:54

>>>Biejing to New Delhi is around 3700 km., if that helps.Yup. I thought it is around 3,500 KM. The 'computed' range of Agni by one of the US spy satellites (reported in press at that time) was also around 3,500 KMs. The reason for the large slenderness ratio for Agni is to fit it into a rail wagon. These were all discussed so many times before..

Krishna · Post by **Krishna** » 04 Feb 2002 09:03

ISRAEL RADAR AT WORK ON BORDERThis article has this intriguing last para. Aside from buying military equipment, India may have acted as a testing pad for Israeli weapon systems. As part of this, an Israeli Navy Dolphin submarine came up to Balasore to test-fire an anti-missile missile. Was this the blunt nosed missile whose photograph was released after the Agni test ?Ramana, Arun_S and other experts - your thoughts on this will be highly appreciated.

Sanjay · Post by **Sanjay** » 04 Feb 2002 09:20

Thanks guys.
Now what we need are exact states in India and cities from which we can hit Beijing at 3000, 3500 and 3700km. That requires a little more work.Geeth, do have any press report on that US sat. calculation of a 3500km range for Agni-2 ?Arun_S, if the distance from Beijing to Calcutta is say 3300km, and Agni-2's range is 3500km, if based in Calcutta, will Agni be able to hit Beijing ?

Peeyoosh · Post by **Peeyoosh** » 04 Feb 2002 09:57

geethplease check your Private MessgaesPEeyoosh

Arun_S · Post by **Arun_S** » 04 Feb 2002 10:37

Sanjay: In your problem statement I take the worst case of assuming the 3500 Km range is when fired in the most favorable easterly direction. Calcutta is at 23 degree Latitude. Beijing is at 45 degree North azimuth. The range will decrease by 52Km to 3,448 Km when fired at 45 degrees azimuth as against 90 degrees (i.e.East).

Sanjay · Post by **Sanjay** » 04 Feb 2002 10:59

Arun, I'm therefore presuming that yes the missile can hit Beijing if fired from Calcutta ?

Arun_S · Post by **Arun_S** » 04 Feb 2002 11:15

Sanjay · Post by **Sanjay** » 04 Feb 2002 11:45

Arun,
If Agni-2 has a 3000km range, where can it be based to hit Beijing ? What state in India ?

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 04 Feb 2002 12:21

<blockquote>quote:<hr>Originally posted by peeyoosh chadda:
SanjayBiejing to New Delhi is around 3700 km., if that helps.Use : http://russia.shaps.hawaii.edu/ap-distance-calc.htmlPeeyoosh<hr></blockquote>Hey - this link says 3268 Km not 3700 or 3500 - and that is from Kolkata to PekingLook at ranges from Agartala/Imphal/Shillong/Dibrugarh

Sanjay · Post by **Sanjay** » 04 Feb 2002 12:26

Shiv,
I've tried that. The problem is that the site does not list Agartala or any of the other cities you named.
We are really now looking at where Agni-2 can be based - in what Indian State - to hit Beijing given our 3 range possibilities:3000km, 3500km and 3700km.

durvasa · Post by **durvasa** » 04 Feb 2002 17:37

Hitting beijing from A-III launched from Calcutta! That will be the ultimate Marxist-Stalinist justice!

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 04 Feb 2002 18:17

OK Sanjay, this is a special for you:The image shows a Map of part of India and China. Beijing is marked on the map. An Isometric line joining spots equidistant from Beijing are maked on the map, and a little inset marks out only the states through which the 2500 Km, 3000 Km, 3500 Km and 3700 Km lines pass. These areas can serve as launch points. 1)The green 2500 Km (from Beijing) line passes through Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Nagaland and Manipur2)The pink 3000 Km line passes through Tripura and Northern Bengal3)The red 3500 Km line passes thru UP. MP, Chattisgarh and Orissa4)The brown 3700 Km line passes through Uttaranchal, UP, MP, Eastern Maharashtra and Andhra Pradesh

Umrao · Post by **Umrao** » 04 Feb 2002 18:29

I hope the map is not to scale.The radius of curvature for the brown line has to be a little more deep.I wish we quickly develop the 8000 Mile Agni so that
"Bejing say Kanyakumari thak ekdum lal hai." to please the marxists

Sunil · Post by **Sunil** » 04 Feb 2002 18:38

Either the Pak FO now insists on calling the Trishul a `ballistic missile' or there were two tests where only one was announced. Eitherways, more power to GoI.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 04 Feb 2002 18:42

Umrao Jaan - I did not have a compass big enough to draw an arc on a huge map (Zilch engg tools anywhere near me) - I marked the dots by hand using a scale, scanned the image and added the other stuff later.Hence the crooked curve - which should have been a proper arc.

krsai · Post by **krsai** » 04 Feb 2002 20:46

some dumb questions:Can a 8km range missile be used to hit to say 4km target? Q: Will the trajectory will have to be extended to finish the fuel for the RV to be activated? or: it can just piggy back on the RV? What is the "first principel"[/pel] for ballistic missiles?thanks

Umrao · Post by **Umrao** » 04 Feb 2002 21:05

IMHO,Path of a projectile is a parabola. (is the first principle since our projectile is not going out g)Second take the equation of parabola differentiate it for maxima minima conditions (with appropriate correction factors) you will have the answers after solving the second order differentail equation .Let not this dampen your quest for knowledge, let it burn like Agni.

Here is more sleep inducing paper.

http://www.fas.org/rlg/980327-range.htm

bored_desi · Post by **bored_desi** » 04 Feb 2002 21:08

Given the likelihood that I will be flamed in this particular debate, i still stand behind my statement that Agni 1/SR gives us no(additional) second strike capability.
This capability (only vis a vis Pakistan) already existed in Agni II/(0riginal)/LR. What additional mobility/survivability does Agni 1/SR provide india with ? Whats the garauntee that these particular missile units are NBC protected 24/hrs of the year to ensure survivability; land based missiles have these problems unless of course protected in hardened silos. Clearly this particular range (of Agni SR) is not sufficient to target china and does not provide any additional second strike capability against them (they have enough first strike capability to overwhelm our second strike capability).
Only the ATV equivalent subs can provide us with that. i.e. only an ATV sub affords us true second strike capability. Tracking 5 ATV's with LR missiles is a whole different ball game as opposed to land based deterents.
Hence i denounce this spin to make it appear as if the Agni SR / I (whatever its name) is gonna change the balance of power.