Possible Indian Military Scenarios - Part X

JCage · Post by **JCage** » 15 Jan 2008 00:14

Vivek, even in MLRS, the PRC isnt far behind. In fact, they have Smerch class systems of their own. Albeit probably of lower quality- I dont take their published material at face value. In fact, for the scenario do consider them using BMs en masse, they have integrated BMs into decapitation strike (3 missile salvos) doctrine.

Sudhanshu · Post by **Sudhanshu** » 15 Jan 2008 09:58

Ankit Desai wrote:I thought this may add some spice .

China doesn't want entire Arunachal, just Tawang

They just want to get it without any effort ... Like this, Tawang is mine, give me back.

Ankit

We should also say, we don't want whole China just Tibet. Don't we have a big heart?

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 18 Jan 2008 12:20

Vivek; time to steal some time for this thread dude.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 18 Jan 2008 22:28

Folks stick to the scenarios related material only. No need for PRC's Tawang claims etc in this thread. Those who want to know can read them in the right thread.

Thanks, ramana

p-Saggu, I request you to provide google maps support to vivek and any other scenario writer per their request.

Thanks, ramana

p_saggu · Post by **p_saggu** » 19 Jan 2008 08:09

p-Saggu, I request you to provide google maps support to vivek and any other scenario writer per their request.

Wokay

Hari Sud · Post by **Hari Sud** » 26 Jan 2008 05:54

Any more readers intrested in posting their scenarios.

Vivek has left everybody in the middle, hence we will have to accept that and move on.

Hari Sud

Shankar · Post by **Shankar** » 27 Jan 2008 13:42

guess -some new story should come otherwise this thread will die .Lets make it an interactive thread .To start with following ideas are offered for your selection

2009 - PLAN intrusion on Andamans and Indian armed forces move in to evict the the intruders - a short high tech conflict PLAN sub strike on cauvery basin gas wells of Reliance- a short but fast moving scenario involving marine commandos and para dropping

2012 - Hijacking of an indian civilian aircraft to south Mozambique and its rescue involving Vikramadity and ATV

2011 - PLAAF/PLAN invasion of Sri lanka in guise of helping the Sri Lankan Govt fighting Tamil and Indian politico military moves to counter it
jointly with US

2014 - US attempt to take out Kalpakam with carrier force and joint Indo -Russian effort to neutralise the strike in the high seas involving air launched brahmos /ATV and other hardware. May involve a carrier to carrie battle between Vik and Nimitz

Your feed will select the storyline

Devendra · Post by **Devendra** » 28 Jan 2008 00:02

Shanakr for me the first senario looks more intresting and reliastic. Its time frame is more close to the present ,and this will give and idea how india can counter PLAN with the present military hardware.

Any way start a senorio soon, because Vivek has left us in middle!!

Baljeet · Post by **Baljeet** » 28 Jan 2008 06:25

Shankar
Why do we indian always have to evict everyone. it perpetuates the lies that India is a nation that has its head in the sand. This nation is never pro active in neutralizing enemies, never aware of geopolitik of dragon and pakis, unkil and his poodles.
Here is my scenario....
India goes through upheavel after all senior citizen of indian politics are swargwasi. Gandhi family runs away. Commies launch their assault for power on political front, their cronies naxalites launch violent attacks in jharkhand, andhra pradesh, chattisgarh,Bengal, bihar, madhya pradesh, uttar pradesh. Amma and karunanidhi launch their agitation for separate tamil land, naga separatist group Isaak Muviah group and others of their ilk launch their own separatist movement from east with help from china, myanmaar, bangladesh. Nepal becomes a conduit for arms to naxalites. Sikh militancy is revived, golden temple is occupied by Babbar Khalsa. Flag of Khalistan is flying atop Golden Temple, Pakistani flag is flying atop homes in Kashmir. Indian police force, IAS officers are all busy taking bribes, filling their coffers while nation burns. Military and para military forces are paralyzed with no clear cut objective. Senior Generals are fighting who will take charge. Cabinet Secretary is the highest governing officer. Pakistani forces are gathering on kashmir front, chinese forces are ready to strike in Arunachal pradesh. Bangladesh has already captured Meghalya, tripura and getting ready to launch assault on Assam.

All the agni's, mirages, sukhoi, lca, etc etc are collecting dust and biting rust.

Entire nation is perplexed, but most people are going about their way in their daily life.

Pakistani Navy has established a foot hold in Dwarka. Nation called India is about to erupt like a sleeping volcano......there are no friends of this nation anywhere, darkness has engulfed the existence of this nation.

How about expanding on something like this...anyone wanna help.

Mihir.D · Post by **Mihir.D** » 28 Jan 2008 10:54

Baljeet wrote:Shankar
Why do we indian always have to evict everyone. it perpetuates the lies that India is a nation that has its head in the sand. This nation is never pro active in neutralizing enemies, never aware of geopolitik of dragon and pakis, unkil and his poodles.
Here is my scenario....
India goes through upheavel after all senior citizen of indian politics are swargwasi. Gandhi family runs away. Commies launch their assault for power on political front, their cronies naxalites launch violent attacks in jharkhand, andhra pradesh, chattisgarh,Bengal, bihar, madhya pradesh, uttar pradesh. Amma and karunanidhi launch their agitation for separate tamil land, naga separatist group Isaak Muviah group and others of their ilk launch their own separatist movement from east with help from china, myanmaar, bangladesh. Nepal becomes a conduit for arms to naxalites. Sikh militancy is revived, golden temple is occupied by Babbar Khalsa. Flag of Khalistan is flying atop Golden Temple, Pakistani flag is flying atop homes in Kashmir. Indian police force, IAS officers are all busy taking bribes, filling their coffers while nation burns. Military and para military forces are paralyzed with no clear cut objective. Senior Generals are fighting who will take charge. Cabinet Secretary is the highest governing officer. Pakistani forces are gathering on kashmir front, chinese forces are ready to strike in Arunachal pradesh. Bangladesh has already captured Meghalya, tripura and getting ready to launch assault on Assam.

All the agni's, mirages, sukhoi, lca, etc etc are collecting dust and biting rust.

Entire nation is perplexed, but most people are going about their way in their daily life.

Pakistani Navy has established a foot hold in Dwarka. Nation called India is about to erupt like a sleeping volcano......there are no friends of this nation anywhere, darkness has engulfed the existence of this nation.

How about expanding on something like this...anyone wanna help.

WTF.. Are you having a freaking wet dream ? If the shit above had to happen it would happen long back. Somebody will always rise to take the nation through such a situation. If the senior citizens become swargvasi the junior citizens will rise to take over.

Take your scenario and post in the Pak Defence Forum

Jaeger · Post by **Jaeger** » 28 Jan 2008 11:14

mihir, a lot of the incidents in Baljeet's post are based on real happenings that happened at discreet times. perhaps he is envisioning a worst-case scenario.

if so, why not? the way i see it, all our enemies - external and the snakes in the grass will co-ordinate actions. if china invades arunachal, will TSP sit on it's hands? will the B'deshi's twiddle their thumbs?

i think they will take full advantage of the situation and activate the maoists, NE rebels, jihadis, hyderabadi mullahs, everybody they have connections to.

what happens then? i for one wouldn't mind seeing someone explore the idea. it's always fun to read Vivek's technology-laced posts which are quite exciting and of course, we have Shankar's 100% testosterone posts where Do 228's have been known to sink Agostas with rockets!

but how about something more challenging? JMT's, etc. etc.

Mihir.D · Post by **Mihir.D** » 28 Jan 2008 12:52

Jaeger wrote:mihir, a lot of the incidents in Baljeet's post are based on real happenings that happened at discreet times. perhaps he is envisioning a worst-case scenario.

if so, why not? the way i see it, all our enemies - external and the snakes in the grass will co-ordinate actions. if china invades arunachal, will TSP sit on it's hands? will the B'deshi's twiddle their thumbs?

i think they will take full advantage of the situation and activate the maoists, NE rebels, jihadis, hyderabadi mullahs, everybody they have connections to.

what happens then? i for one wouldn't mind seeing someone explore the idea. it's always fun to read Vivek's technology-laced posts which are quite exciting and of course, we have Shankar's 100% testosterone posts where Do 228's have been known to sink Agostas with rockets!

but how about something more challenging? JMT's, etc. etc.

I agree they have happened at discreet times but for India to get into a situation as described above will involve a failure of catastrophic proportions.If it was to happen it would have happened during the emergency, in the early 90's during politically unstable times. Even if New Delhi goes up in smoke because of a surprise thermo-nuclear weapon strike there will be individuals who will stand up to the situation. And last but last not the least do you think the armed forces will sit and watch while our so called neighbors go out to take chunks of India ?

There are more enlightened individuals here who can answer Baljeet's scenario . But a discussion on what could lead India down that path and how we could handle it would be most interesting.

Shankar · Post by **Shankar** » 28 Jan 2008 15:38

Some one post a map of Andaman & Nicobar island chain -please

vivek_ahuja · Post by **vivek_ahuja** » 28 Jan 2008 16:11

Hi guys!

Nice to see the thread up and active again. No thanks to me of course, but still...

Sorry for leaving things mid-way. I know I promised to finish my scenario when I logged on during the December holidays and stuff, but I had been tagged for doing something that built up on it. And here's the good part:

I had been tagged by some well-known publishers to do a much more advanced version war-gaming of the Indo-China scenario for a Book. I have in fact spent the last month on an intensive one-on-one with ex-military officers and so on to do just that. It takes my current scenario plotline and makes it much more than that.

However, given my work schedule and these war-gaming sessions, I had very little time left to post separate posts on BR, and for that I apologize to all readers.

Nevertheless, I have some need for help here. If there are any of you who are interested to help me on that, please let me know.

Once I finish that simulation and end the work on my book, within a week at the outset, I can resume posting on BR.

In the meantime, I see that Shankar has started an idea for a new storyline. If possible, I have a whole bunch of stuff from my scenario relating the naval battle I was plotting out before I left off. Would the guys here like me to send those stuff to Shankar for modification and then using here to continue the Naval battles we had just started?

In this way, he can continue the naval aspect of the war while I concentrate on the Land battles and so on. That would automatically reduce the workload on me tremendously, as well as make the posts on this thread more frequent. What does everybody here think?

-Vivek

P.S. Shankar, can I have your contact mail please? I need to speak with you.

p_saggu · Post by **p_saggu** » 28 Jan 2008 16:17

Andaman and Nicobar

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 28 Jan 2008 16:26

vivek_ahuja wrote:Nevertheless, I have some need for help here. If there are any of you who are interested to help me on that, please let me know.

Noble cause; I am in; will do what I can; dunno if you will want my help though

Shankar · Post by **Shankar** » 28 Jan 2008 17:54

ghoshsh at gmail dot com -vivek give a mail

Psaggu can u please post the map here not a link that will help every one co relate the unfolding scenarios much better .Also as the story unfolds was thinking if you can post area maps and phots of weapon systems etc which I will send to you by mail .i dont know how you guys post photos on this thread .
To start with a google earth map of whole andaman chain of islands and then we can zoom in to different areas as the story develops

Tks in advance -it will be interesting few months

vivek_ahuja · Post by **vivek_ahuja** » 28 Jan 2008 18:27

vivek give a mail

Done, sir. Please check your mailbox. Thanks.

Noble cause; I am in; will do what I can; dunno if you will want my help though

Hey, thanks for the response. I need all the help I can get given that the magnitude of the work has swamped me. Please send me a mail at vivek_ahuja123 at yahoo dot com.

-Vivek

p_saggu · Post by **p_saggu** » 28 Jan 2008 22:06

This map was too big to be posted here without distorting the page.

Baljeet · Post by **Baljeet** » 29 Jan 2008 04:55

Mihir.D wrote:
Baljeet wrote:Shankar
Why do we indian always have to evict everyone. it perpetuates the lies that India is a nation that has its head in the sand. This nation is never pro active in neutralizing enemies, never aware of geopolitik of dragon and pakis, unkil and his poodles.
Here is my scenario....
India goes through upheavel after all senior citizen of indian politics are swargwasi. Gandhi family runs away. Commies launch their assault for power on political front, their cronies naxalites launch violent attacks in jharkhand, andhra pradesh, chattisgarh,Bengal, bihar, madhya pradesh, uttar pradesh. Amma and karunanidhi launch their agitation for separate tamil land, naga separatist group Isaak Muviah group and others of their ilk launch their own separatist movement from east with help from china, myanmaar, bangladesh. Nepal becomes a conduit for arms to naxalites. Sikh militancy is revived, golden temple is occupied by Babbar Khalsa. Flag of Khalistan is flying atop Golden Temple, Pakistani flag is flying atop homes in Kashmir. Indian police force, IAS officers are all busy taking bribes, filling their coffers while nation burns. Military and para military forces are paralyzed with no clear cut objective. Senior Generals are fighting who will take charge. Cabinet Secretary is the highest governing officer. Pakistani forces are gathering on kashmir front, chinese forces are ready to strike in Arunachal pradesh. Bangladesh has already captured Meghalya, tripura and getting ready to launch assault on Assam.

All the agni's, mirages, sukhoi, lca, etc etc are collecting dust and biting rust.

Entire nation is perplexed, but most people are going about their way in their daily life.

Pakistani Navy has established a foot hold in Dwarka. Nation called India is about to erupt like a sleeping volcano......there are no friends of this nation anywhere, darkness has engulfed the existence of this nation.

How about expanding on something like this...anyone wanna help.
WTF.. Are you having a freaking wet dream ? If the shit above had to happen it would happen long back. Somebody will always rise to take the nation through such a situation. If the senior citizens become swargvasi the junior citizens will rise to take over.

Take your scenario and post in the Pak Defence Forum

Mihir
There is a reason you are a trainee. Your outburst of emotion shows you have no maturity to participate in any discussion. Your Sadak Chaap drivel and chest beating may get you an audience in cheap cinema.
A person or nation who does not learn from history will surely fall prey to it again. Just give some sense to you, China is already making incusrions in Ladakh and Arunachal pradesh. Has this nation done anything? Even worse, Laddakh incursion is happening after MMS returned from china trip, what is the message chinese are sending care to understand that?
The reality is Indian Military is short on young officers be it in AF, Army, navy and para military forces.
I know you can read...read this
The shortage: 11,300
Number of new officers required every year: 2,100
Number of seats at IMA: 250
Intake this year: 86
Number of officers who have applied for premature retirement since 2004: 2,877
Officers who have prematurely retired since 2004: 1,694

Without officers to lead, all jawans, planes, ships, tanks are just sitting ducks.

Reality is harsh, living in reality is harsher, facing reality is harshest.

Mihir.D · Post by **Mihir.D** » 29 Jan 2008 10:57

--------------------deleted------------------------------------

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 29 Jan 2008 10:59

vivek_ahuja wrote:
Noble cause; I am in; will do what I can; dunno if you will want my help though
Hey, thanks for the response. I need all the help I can get given that the magnitude of the work has swamped me. Please send me a mail at vivek_ahuja123 at yahoo dot com.

-Vivek

Done last night Sir; please check your box.

Shankar · Post by **Shankar** » 30 Jan 2008 12:30

INDIAN AIR FORCE STATION â€“CAR NICOBAR (CAR NIC)-2009

Wing commander Dinesh came out of the waves drenched in salt water onto the white sands of the protected beach bordering the air force station ,as a pair of flankers took off with a thunderous roar in the distance right over his head Much enlarged since the devastation of Tsunami few years back. In those days he has made numerous sorties from the main land, ferrying in first the medical and food supplies and then construction equipment required for reconstruction of the base and extension of the runway and taxi ways. It was a matter of great pride for his squadron of An -32 s that the operation could be started within 6 months and the first of the maritime strike Jaguars landed soon after .This was followed quickly by half a squadron of Su 30 MKI s and now Car Nicobar airbase ,called lovingly Car Nic by IAF boasted of two full squadrons of Su 30 MKI s and one squadron (enhanced ) of Jaguars dispersed all along the island in hard protective shelters giving it an enviable punch potential right on the heart of, one of the busiest sea lanes of the world .

The idyllic island of Car Nicobar is nothing but a tropical paradise or as close to that definition you can get in reality. Lying in the heart of Andaman and Nicobar islands archipelago in the Indian Ocean it is but very little known to the outside world and even to Indian public in general. Part of the reason is of course geographic inaccessibility and part due to strategic importance of the region. There is no direct air link between the Indian mainland and the island till recently. Tourists have to first reach Port Blair by ship or air from Kolkata or Chennai and then move on to Car Nic either by boats or helicopter. The ten degree channel is very rough most of the year round and ordinary tourists who could not afford the exorbitant air fare went back from Port Blair.

But those who dared to take the challenge it was a sight worth all the trouble and expense. As the aircraft approaches the white sandy beach and the turquoise ring of the surrounding ocean ,the ring of dark green coconut trees and the lush forest beyond the shore line make an unforgettable first impression â€“too good to be true .

The islands remoteness is further reinforced by self sufficeant culture of the Nicobarese
Their language has no words for compensation, orphan., trafficking which formed part of post Tsunami discourse in the region .

Outside the air force station life has changed little for the native people over last 1000 years. It is not unusual to find a lady as â€œfirst captainâ€

Sudhanshu · Post by **Sudhanshu** » 30 Jan 2008 13:49

hahahaha.. just seeing shankar name against the thread name (on br hompage) brought shiver inside name,.... It took just some miliseconds for me to click on the thread. Rest after reading the scenario

welcome home shankar.

Shankar · Post by **Shankar** » 30 Jan 2008 15:12

The first confirmed report on Joint intelligence gathering operation between china and Myanmar, in the Andaman region came in mid 2005 even as the concept of joint counter insurgency operation concept between Indian and Myanmar armed forces was being fine tuned. The myna mars navy commenced a survey of Andamanâ€™s islands to set up a patrol base and a small port ,but naval intelligence believed the real intention was an operation to undertake mapping of Andamanâ€™s seas at the behest f china and study the possibility of heavy tonnage ships in the area. Given the fact the maritime boundary between myna mar and India is still unmarked intrusions both unintentional and deliberate were frequent. According to the classified report â€œthe present activity appeared inspired and encouraged by Chinese intelligence agencies to study the availability of navigation channels in the Andamanâ€™s and its surrounding seas .The close interaction between myna mar military junta and china was of course no news even in those days and was in fact one of the basic reasons why government of India corrected its pro democracy tilt in Myanmar in mid 1990s and its foreign policy took on a marked pro general tilt.

The key to strategic importance of Andamanâ€™s is its location. Located 1200 kms from the Indian mainlandâ€™s the chain of islands is scattered over 750 kms north to south in Bay of Bengal. In fact this chain of islands geographically separates the bay of Bengal from Malacca straits .The southern most island in the chain is only 90 kms from Indonesia and northernmost just 50 kms from Mynamar,and coco island is just 45 kms from Andamanâ€™s

Myna mars military government leased coco island to Chinese in 1994 .China quickly set up an advanced reconnaissance and electronic intelligence gathering station in great cocos island and a small naval base in small Cocos Island. The military significance of these electronic eavesdropping station and pilot naval base is its proximity to the shipping routes from bay of Bengal to Malacca straits and also its ability to monitor activities of Indiaâ€™s missile test program on the other side of the bay at wheeler islands and Chandipur. As the first of the successful anti ballistic missiles tests were carried out in close proximity of Agni 3 inter continental ballistic missiles â€“for the peoples republic of China the Cocos island facility became of critical importance. The Cocos island are in fact ideal for monitoring the Indian naval facilities in Andaman and also to track the movement of Indian and other navies through out the eastern Indian ocean and B ay of Bengal .China also helped modernize myna mars naval bases like Hianggyi, Akyab, Zadetkyi Kyun,Mergui, khauphyu apart from the facilities at Cocos .

gauravjkale · Post by **gauravjkale** » 31 Jan 2008 10:26

THANK YOU

Shankar · Post by **Shankar** » 31 Jan 2008 12:08

Chinas interest in in the region is an off shoot of its offshore defense strategy. This particular model of strategic dominance and expansion envisages setting up and operating out of a number of island chains .First stage of the plan involves use of Myna mars naval bases by PLAN ,giving it a direct access to the strategically important Malacca straits and all of B ay of Bengal .The primary objective of china however remains to ensure security to its sea lanes of communications in the Indian ocean region which are almost pivotal to her economic growth through maritime trade and of course the flow of energy from the Persian gulf. This is the key to their naval capability build in the region including basing facility in Gwadar â€“Pakistan along with possible leasing of naval facilities in Myanmar
Ports like Mergui,Hianggyi,Coco,Akyab,Zadetkyi Kyun,Khaukphyu with Yangon which will ultimately help it open up the Irrawadi river to Chinese inland commerce thru Myanmar with its sea access to B ay of Bengal and Indian ocean. In a way this was an attempt to develop an alternate route complementing the sea access to the worlds oceans via Malacca straits.

From Indian point of view security of the Andamanâ€™s is vital as it is her back yard or falls squarely in her sphere of influence and critical for all intended power projection roles in the Indian ocean region that includes anti piracy, anti narcotics, gun running along with security of the worlds oil and trade which pass this region. All of her trade to south east Asia travel through Malacca straits apart from vital nuclear installations like Madras atomic power project units in Kalpakam ,the 2x1000 MW nuclear reactors in the vicinity built with Russian Know how ,the interim test range for missiles in Chandipur and Wheeler islands ,the naval base at Vizag ,the port f Paradeep,the city of Kolkata etc .

China completed constructin of a 4 lane highway from Kunming the capital of its Yunan province to Shewli on china â€“Myanmar border as a first step of her proactive policy of creating an alternate sea acess thru Myanmar.In th next phase of the project the road link was extended to Sinkiang on Irrwady river allowing it a subsequent river link to Yangon and onwards to Andamanâ€™s sea .Once completed in early 2009 ,china was able to ship its produce from mainland via the integrated road â€“river route t Yangon port and then by Chinese registered ships to rest of the world .

But they were vulnerable â€“vulnerable to the presence of powerful Indian tri â€“service command base at Port Blair and air force station Car Nic which could throttle the booming Chinese trade originating out of Yangon and the vital virtual energy pipeline thru Malacca straits any time .

To counter the growing Chinese presence in the region and increased Chinese maritime activity in the Andamanâ€™s seas ,Indian navy and force moved in concert . The first of these moves involved enhancing the quick response capability by induction of two squadrons of su-30 mki air dominance aircraft along with an enhanced Jaguar maritime strike aircraft in Car Nicobar . The naval facility at Port Blair was also upgraded with incorporation of submarine basing facility and BrahMos equipped destroyers were located in late 2008 . The presence of Agni 3 ballistic missiles in the island chain has never been confirmed â€“nor have they ever been denied. However land launched version of the supersonic BrahMos cruise missile was based in a number of islands in the archipelago.

All in all by mid 2008 the Andamanâ€™s and Nicobar Chain of islands was perhaps the most potent of all Indian military bases in the subcontinent .

Peoples republic of China-knew it too.

Shankar · Post by **Shankar** » 31 Jan 2008 14:31

PS - A Myanmar map please

niran · Post by **niran** » 31 Jan 2008 14:47

Shankar · Post by **Shankar** » 01 Feb 2008 12:55

Andaman and Nicobar group of islands also known bay islands are a group of islands comprising more than 300 islands most of which are uninhabited .The main reason for such is shortage of drinking water or too any for any kind of agricultural activity. Also known romantically as emerald islands their location in bay of Bengal divides the straits of Malacca and bay of Bengal. In fact their spread is some what similar to Lakswadeep chain of islands in the south eat Arabian Sea. Administratively an union territory of India these islands have been divided into two main groups â€“ namely Andaman and Nicobar groups. The 10 degree channel divides these groups, about 154 kms wide and 400 fathoms deep and its nomenclature based on geographic latitude. The Andaman group consist of North Andaman ,the Middle Andaman, and South Andaman again a very un imaginative naming based on entirely geographic relative position, the capital of this union territory Port Blair and the little Andaman. Small shallow seas separate these islands .from each other .The three larger islands along with a number of satellite islands form the Greater Andaman ,the last one being little Andaman. The northern most point in this island chain is called Landfall point and is approximately 300 kms from Myanmar mainland and less than 100kms from Coco island .The Coco channel divides the land fall island from Coco island

The Nicobar group of islands consist of Car Nicobar in the north and little Nicobar and greater Nicobar group of islands to the south .The last of these group of islands is also the southernmost tip of Indian territory called the Pygmalion point which is just 150 kms from Indonesian coast of Sumatra .The Great channel separates the Great Nicobar from Sumatra. The other islands in Nicobar group of islands are little Nicobar, Chowra,Tarasa Dweep,Nancowrie,Trinakt and Katchal islands .

Geologically speaking the islands are [art of a land mass coming down from Patkai Bum Through Arakan Yoma of the north east India and Myanmar respectively as well as Malaysia and Indo â€“China . Climatically it is in the tropical rain forest belt but still the surrounding ocean and regular sea breeze makes the climate quite pleasant.The main reason the first white settlers, the Danish missionaries left the place was perhaps the mosquitoes .

From a strategic point the chain of islands create a series of choke points dominating the western entry to Singapore but also any maritime movement between far eastern countries and Kolkata, Cox Bazaar and Yangon or between Triconmole in Sri Lanka and Yangon. This was in fact the driving force behind setting up of Tri service command in Port Blair .As the command became operational following strategic advantages were immediately seen

1) reduction and finally near elimination of piracy in the region
2) significant reduction in illegal gun running operations carried out by ISI to southern Bangladeshi ports which finally landed in the hands of terrorists and insurgents in India

But the greatest strategic importance of Andaman and Nicobar lies in its proximity to worldâ€™s oil tanker routes and to a lesser extent the oil rich state of Sumatra which may break away from Indonesia under active US encouragement just like East Timor did with Australian assistance. All part of US game of controlling worlds energy resources and their distribution

And then of course we can not overlook the China factor .Her claim to all of south china sea which extends right up to the eastern entry point t strait of Malacca .(on the western entry the straits is the Nicobar islands and Andamanâ€™s sea).As china started exerting more and more control on Myanmarâ€™s coast from St Mathews island in Thailand through Mergui ,Coco,Hyungi Bassien right upto Ramree islands the threat to Andaman was very real .

With this geo political developments â€“ the picturesque Andaman group of islands was sitting on a powder keg .All it needed was a spark . It will not be long in coming.

Shankar · Post by **Shankar** » 02 Feb 2008 12:18

PRIME MINISTERS OFFICE -BEIJING -PEOPLES REPUBLIC OF CHINA

The prime minister of China was not happy .On his desk was a thick folder
on Indian naval -air build up in the Andaman region starting from late 2007 and included news paper reports . Around him sat the other members of the politbureu and no one smiled .Outside the the city of Beijing was at its glamorous best very flashy and very polluted .Just outside the party headquarters on Wanfujing street young and smartly dressed Chinese young professionals were busy with evening shopping in the countless malls that dot the broad avenue .

As on date China dependence on imported crude was almost catastrophic .While the economy has continued to grow at 10% plus in last 3 yrs the high cost of crude was hurting ,but the situation was manageable as long as the price remained stable and the supply uninterrupted. While nothing much could be done about US naval presence in the gulf ,the premier was of the opinion that the strong Indian military build up in the bay of bengal
was major threat to Chinese economic growth and national security . Something needed to be done and done fast .But he needed an excuse .

The precious excuse will soon be coming from an unexpected ally

Posted online: Thursday , November 15, 2007 at 12:00:00
Updated: Thursday , November 15, 2007 at 09:26:00
Print Email To Editor Post Comments

Kolkata, November 15: India will strengthen its naval fleet on the eastern front, the regional commander said on Wednesday, adding destroyers and frigates among other ships, in an apparent move to counter Chinese interest in the region.
Over the next five years or so, India's plans include stationing an aircraft carrier in the Bay of Bengal along with at least half of the 32 new warships and six submarines, Vice Admiral Raman Suthan said in Kolkata.
The announcement comes a few months after India's air force said it would strengthen its presence in the east, adding new fighter jets and moving two squadrons of 36 state-of-the-art Russian-built Sukhoi-30 aircraft to the area.
They are also adding advanced helicopters, strengthening runways and upgrading other air force facilities - an apparent move to counter China's might.
"China has fuel interests of its own as fuel lines from Africa and the Gulf run through these waters, and so they are also building up their navy," Suthan said on board INS Sukanya, a naval warship at the Kolkata dockyard.
India has air and naval bases and listening posts across the eastern region. It considers the eastern sea routes vital to its security.
Many Indian defence experts believe that China has military or intelligence facilities on Myanmar's Coco Islands, a few miles away from India's Diglipur, 185 km north of Port Blair, capital of the Andaman and Nicobar Islands.
"We keep hearing about China's interest in Coco Island and are wary of its growing interest in the region, and we are keeping a close watch," Suthan said.
Although Suthan said he believed China had no facilities on Coco, he said the navy could not let its guard down.
"The naval fleet in east India has long legs and, with the government's emphasis on the look east policy, we are strengthening east now," Suthan added

SOME WHERE IN IRAN-PAKISTAN BORDER

The old man was thinking hard -about the continuing pressure of US and its allies and a number of set backs his followers have suffered around the globe ,as the war on terror went proactive . Most worrisome was the active participation of military powers like Russia ,China and India
in the all out offensive and coming to shape of the 1000 ship navy led by US. He knew he had to do something quickly if his movement of Global Jihad is to survive .His pririty at this point of time was to break the alliance -at any cost

There was only one sure fire way of doing it

RAS TANURA OIL EXPORT TERMINAL -SAUDI ARABIA

The export terminals at Ras Tanura on the Persian Gulf are among the largest in the world. Designed to export crude oil and LPG, the facilities include two piers and one sea island with a total of eighteen berths, which can accommodate ships of up to 550,000 deadweight tons (dwt). The facilities also included a tank farm with total storage capacity of 33 million barrels.

Shankar · Post by **Shankar** » 02 Feb 2008 15:28

The Saudi oil infrastructure is the largest in the world. The major Saudi export terminals are at Ras Tantra and Juaymah, while the Petroline pipeline carries oil from the Abqaiq and Ghawar fields to Yanbu port on the Red Sea. The ports are Saudi Arabia's oil export Achilles heel; furthermore, while the kingdom has around eighty oil and gas fields, more than half of the country's reserves are concentrated in only eight fields, while the huge processing complex at Abqaiq handles about two-thirds of the country's oil output. This gigantism produces an economy of scale, but the concentration makes it highly susceptible to terrorist attack.
Ras Tanura (more accurately Ra's TannÅ«rah, Arabic: Ø±Ø£Ø³ ØªÙ†ÙˆØ±Ø© meaning "top/head of the barbecue spit") is a city in the Eastern Province of Saudi Arabia located on a peninsula extending into the Persian Gulf. The name Ras Tanura applies both to a gated Saudi Aramco employee compound (also referred to as "Najmah") and to an industrial area further out on the peninsula that serves as a major oil port and oil operations center for Saudi Aramco, the largest oil company in the world. Today, the compound has about 3,200 residents, with a few Americans and British expats.

Shankar · Post by **Shankar** » 02 Feb 2008 17:34

SOMEWHERE IN IRAN-PAKISTAN BORDER

The old man started scribbling furiously on an yellowed piece of paper .His bodyguards waited outside patiently .A muffled cough from inside the tent was the indication for them to go in and take the detailed instructions along with a neat sketch ,put them in a sealed envelope and then take it over to Peswar -from where it will wing its way out half way across the world ,to a most unlikely destination -the world headquarters of a major US oil producing multinational.

The old man already tiring from the last hours effort looked at the news report and smiled -enigmatically

Quote:
New Threat on Gulf Oil Puts Security Forces on Alert

By Chris Zambelis
Based on what United States and regional security sources described as credible intelligence of a possible maritime terrorist attack against Saudi and Bahraini coastal and offshore oil installations, radical Islamists in the Persian Gulf appear to be heeding al-Qaeda second-in-command Ayman al-Zawahiri's call to target Persian Gulf oil infrastructure. U.S. and British sources believe that al-Qaeda militants have their sights set on Saudi Arabia's Ras Tanura facility. With a total loading capacity of six million barrels per day, Ras Tanura is the world's largest offshore oil export terminal (Gulf Daily News, October 2Cool. Bahrain's Bapco oil refinery is also believed to be under threat of attack. Western and regional capitals are taking these warnings seriously. U.S., British and partner Western navies comprising the Italian-led Coalition Task Force 152 that patrols international waters near Ras Tanura have deployed forces in support of Saudi and Bahraini military and security forces (al-Jazeera, October 2Cool.

Yemeni security officials recently foiled an attack by local militants against oil installations in Marib and Hadramawt in September (Terrorism Focus, September 26). Saudi militants led a bold but failed attack against the world's largest oil processing facility at Abqaiq in Saudi Arabia in February (Terrorism Focus, March 7).

The generally poor and amateurish performance of the militant cells that perpetrated these failed strikes may provide clues as to the tactical and operational capabilities of would-be attackers in any future raids against the Ras Tanura and Bapco facilities. It also highlights the difficulty of executing an effective strike against such facilities, especially given the heightened sense of awareness and regional security cooperation. Still, even a failed attack provides al-Qaeda with an opportunity to demonstrate that it is still a relevant force to be reckoned with. It may also be enough to raise security risk premiums on oil prices.

Al-Qaeda's emphasis on targeting the region's oil infrastructure represents an ambitious effort on their part to destabilize incumbent regimes closely allied with the United States. It is also meant to send shockwaves through international financial markets in order to harm the U.S. economy. Osama bin Laden has decried what he perceives as the complicity of Saudi Arabia and other Gulf monarchies in a U.S.-led scheme to maintain artificially low oil prices in exchange for U.S. guarantees of security against foreign invasion and domestic political opposition. Despite a string of recent failures, al-Qaeda is likely to remain focused on targeting vital oil

Shankar · Post by **Shankar** » 03 Feb 2008 17:02

RAS TANURA OIL TERMINAL -SAUDI ARABIA

David Rottier looked at the calmness of Arabian Gulf with a tight grin on his face. He liked the beauty but hated the pollution. As security chief of the sprawling oil complex ,it was his job to ensure the flow of oil to rest of the world stays uninterrupted at any cost and was in almost constant contact with his hand multi band radio to the Saudi as well as multinational forces in the gulf charged with security of the region . An ex USN SEAL he was used to pressure and also being born and brought up in Saudi Arabia was used to the dessert. Till 9/11 the job was great and then everything changed.
His father was a refinery engineer with Aramco and David joined his father when only 9 year old. His memory of US was vague at best, about the snow covered streets of Minneapolis, the frozen Mississippi and the skyscrapers down town. First few months he missed the snow mobile rides on frozen lakes and the violent storm of colors during fall but hen slowly the dessert claimed him â€“lock stock and barrel.
He still remembered the dark of dessert night when the small turboprop of of Egypt Air dropped him with his mother on the small airfield at Dhahran. Then the oppressive heat and humidity hit him like a sledge hammer .He realized â€“it is a different world .In the distance he could see the eternal fire of the flare stacks lighting up the night sky in an eerie glow .He mad friends with local boys and they introduced him to the fun of living in a dessert .The fine art of catching sneaky lizards by throat so that you not left with a just the tail ,how to catch the spiny tailed dabs and the meat eating warals or for that matter the suction toed geckos. A geologist friend of his father once took him out for a wilderness trip and there was his first encounter with hunchbacked stripped Hyena. He would explore the dessert alone and with his friends on holidays and discover the burnt out crater formed by a misplaced Italian bomb ,a relic of second world war.In the coming years he would make the road journey from Dhahran to Ras Tanura number of times ,past the first oil well â€“Dammara seven, past the pyramid shaped Jabal Shamal, past the fishing villages of Al-Khobar and Dammam.He never stopped being amazed at the crystal white salt flats and the towering sand dunes. On the way he would see the large flocks of long haired black goats, clusters of low slung Bedouin tents and the large stiff legged donkeys and the highways bearing the neatly pained sign board proclaiming â€œcamels have the right of the wayâ€

gauravjkale · Post by **gauravjkale** » 06 Feb 2008 11:21

Shankar we all are on oxygen man. We need fresh dose of scenarios ASAP.

Shankar · Post by **Shankar** » 06 Feb 2008 12:40

Myanmar 2006-2009

Chinas interest in Myanmarâ€™s was pure and simple ,its insatiable quest for natural gas and oil ,so very vital to its ever growing economy .In parallel was the strategic unease at the presence of a strong Indian naval/air presence in the region.
With 1.3 billion people, the People's Republic of China is the world's most populous country and the second largest oil consumer, behind the U.S. In recent years, China has been undergoing a process of industrialization and is one of the fastest growing economies in the world. With real gross domestic product growing at a rate of 8-10% a year, China's need for energy is projected to increase by 150 percent by 2020. to sustain its growth China requires increasing amounts of oil. Its oil consumption grows by 7.5% per year, seven times faster than the U.S.'
Growth in Chinese oil consumption has accelerated mainly because of a large-scale transition away from bicycles and mass transit toward private automobiles, more affordable since China's admission to the World Trade Organization. Consequently, by year 2010 China is expected to have 90 times more cars than in 1990. With automobile numbers growing at 19% a year, projections show that China could surpass the total number of cars in the U.S. by 2030. Another contributor to the sharp increase in automobile sales is the very low price of gasoline in China. Chinese gasoline prices now rank among the lowest in the world for oil-importing countries, and are a third of retail prices in Europe and Japan, where steep taxes are imposed to discourage gasoline use.
Cheap energy and assured is the prime mover of Chinese economy mentioned time again in international press and their specific interest in countries like Myanmar
April 23, 2006
Dow Jones Energy Service

B

EIJING (Dow Jones)--China's oil companies are expected to double imports of crude oil they produce overseas by the year 2010, as they increasingly invest in foreign oil assets, an official from a petroleum industry association in China said recently.

"It's more cost-efficient to import oil produced by the companies' overseas assets than purchasing from the international market. And the overseas assets will provide long-term oil supply no matter how high international oil prices grow or how tight global supply is," Zhao Zhiming, president of the China Petroleum & Petrochemical Equipment Industry Association, told Dow Jones Newswires.

In 2005, China's oil companies imported about 50 million metric tons of crude oil from their overseas assets, including 35 million tons by China National Petroleum Corp. (CNPC.YY), 10 million tons by China National Offshore Oil Corp., and the rest mainly by China Petroleum & Chemical Group, or Sinopec, Zhao said.

China imported a total of 126.8 million tons of crude in 2005.

Zhao said China's oil companies should increase acquisition of assets, in places, like Kazakhstan, Russia and Myanmar where pipelines have been built, or will be built, to link with China. As for the feasibility of a Myanmar-China oil pipeline, Zhao said, "China will certainly build the pipeline as it will reduce the country's heavy reliance on the Malacca Strait. But construction may be delayed for a few years, given the unsettled construction costs and no agreement yet signed between the two governments."
China's expectation of growing future dependence on oil imports has brought it to acquire interests in exploration and production in places like Kazakhstan, Russia, Venezuela, Sudan, West Africa, Iran, Saudi Arabia and Canada. But despite its efforts to diversify its sources, China has become increasingly dependent on Middle East oil. Today, 58% of China's oil imports come from the region. By 2009, the share of Middle East oil will stand on 65%. Though historically China has had no long-standing strategic interests in the Middle East, its relationship with the region from where most of its oil comes is becoming increasingly important.

Myanmar is the biggest producer of natural gas in Asia and has the potential to ascend higher globally because many gas projects remain to be implemented. Currently, the country ranks 10th at the world level with its gas sale, up from 11th previously, while it represents the first in Asia. Myanmar started production and export of gas to Thailand in the late 1990s through a pipeline from the Yadana field in the gulf of Mottama, and Yetagun field off the Tanintharyi coast.
Energy authorities of Myanmar and Thailand have been negotiating the construction of a marine, joint-venture natural gas pipeline since September 2006 for more export of gas to Thailand from the M-9 block in Myanmar's Mottama offshore area, officials disclosed. The Thai PTT Exploration and Production (PTTEP) Public Co Ltd, which has been engaged in gas exploration at the block, has so far found large commercial gas deposits at seven test wells since 2005.
With a total of estimated gas reserve of more than 226.5 billion cubic-meters (BCM) and a production rate of about 8.49 billion cubic-meters (MCM) per day, the M-9 field is expected to be able to produce gas and export to Thailand by late 2011.In recent years, the country also found huge gas deposits in the Shwe and Shwephyu fields at block A-1 in 2004 and the Mya field at block A-3 in 2005.
Myanmar has an abundance of natural gas resources, especially in offshore areas. With three main large offshore oil and gas fields and 19 onshore ones, Myanmar has proven recoverable reserve of 18.012 trillion cubic ft (TCF) out of 89.722 TCF estimated reserve of offshore and onshore gas, experts said. The country is also estimated to have 3.2 billion barrels of recoverable crude oil reserve, official statistics indicate. Myanmar figures also showed that in fiscal 2006-07, the country produced 7.7 million barrels of crude oil and 13.039 billion cubic meters of gas (BCM). Gas exports during the period were 13.028 BCM, worth $2.03 billion.
Statistics revealed foreign investment in Myanmar's oil and gas sector had reached $2.769 billion in 75 projects in 2006 since the country opened to such investment in 1988.AS OF EARLY 2008 13 foreign oil companies, mainly from Australia, Britain, Canada, China, Indonesia, India, South Korea, Malaysia, Thailand and Russia are operating 33 onshore and offshore projects in Myanmar
Early 2009 Chinas interesting Myanmarâ€™s oil and gas was still not critical enough to warrant the risk an open confrontation with Indian navy ,since most of it was oil supply was assured from the Persian Gulf though at relatively high price .At that point of time political leadership of peoples republic of China developed its relationship with Myanmar just as an insurance and to some what contain dramatic expansion of Indian naval presence in Andamanâ€™s seas Directly encouraged by US and to some extent by Russian federation and Japan .
No one foresaw how a stoppage of crude oil and LNG flow from Gulf can change that-not even the Chinese political leadership

ashdivay · Post by **ashdivay** » 08 Feb 2008 01:49

Mihir.D wrote:
Baljeet wrote:Shankar
Why do we indian always have to evict everyone. it perpetuates the lies that India is a nation that has its head in the sand. This nation is never pro active in neutralizing enemies, never aware of geopolitik of dragon and pakis, unkil and his poodles.
Here is my scenario....
India goes through upheavel after all senior citizen of indian politics are swargwasi. Gandhi family runs away. Commies launch their assault for power on political front, their cronies naxalites launch violent attacks in jharkhand, andhra pradesh, chattisgarh,Bengal, bihar, madhya pradesh, uttar pradesh. Amma and karunanidhi launch their agitation for separate tamil land, naga separatist group Isaak Muviah group and others of their ilk launch their own separatist movement from east with help from china, myanmaar, bangladesh. Nepal becomes a conduit for arms to naxalites. Sikh militancy is revived, golden temple is occupied by Babbar Khalsa. Flag of Khalistan is flying atop Golden Temple, Pakistani flag is flying atop homes in Kashmir. Indian police force, IAS officers are all busy taking bribes, filling their coffers while nation burns. Military and para military forces are paralyzed with no clear cut objective. Senior Generals are fighting who will take charge. Cabinet Secretary is the highest governing officer. Pakistani forces are gathering on kashmir front, chinese forces are ready to strike in Arunachal pradesh. Bangladesh has already captured Meghalya, tripura and getting ready to launch assault on Assam.

All the agni's, mirages, sukhoi, lca, etc etc are collecting dust and biting rust.

Entire nation is perplexed, but most people are going about their way in their daily life.

Pakistani Navy has established a foot hold in Dwarka. Nation called India is about to erupt like a sleeping volcano......there are no friends of this nation anywhere, darkness has engulfed the existence of this nation.

How about expanding on something like this...anyone wanna help.
WTF.. Are you having a freaking wet dream ? If the shit above had to happen it would happen long back. Somebody will always rise to take the nation through such a situation. If the senior citizens become swargvasi the junior citizens will rise to take over.

Take your scenario and post in the Pak Defence Forum

There are times i get fears like that , we should also consider worst case sceaniros also. considering what has been happning .. lets be civilised !

Shankar · Post by **Shankar** » 08 Feb 2008 12:22

STRATEGIC IMPLICATIONS OF CHINAS PRESENCE IN MAYANMAR-1990-2009

The strategic implication of Chinas military and civilian presence haev need reported in international media for long but strangely the government of India did not wake up ti this very credible potential threat till 2006 when steps were taken to bolster the defenses of Andaman region .Looking thorough international publications of that era make the glaring security lapse obvious

For years, international defence experts have been reporting Chinese
activity in Myanmar, particularly on the Great Coco Island, just 20
nautical miles from the northern tip of the Andamans. The rapidly growing
Chinese presence in Myanmar, which started after the military regime
assumed power in Rangoon in 1989, has lent credence to Indian fears that
China plans to "encircle" India strategically.

"China's aim is to have a strategic outpost in the Indian Ocean.
Encircling India is its grand strategy," asserts Maj. Gen. Y.K. Gera,
deputy director of the United Services Institution. Of immediate concern
to India is the presence of four Chinese radar bases at Man-Aung island
off the Arakan coast, Hainggyi Island near the mouth of Bassein (Pathein)
river, Great Coco Island, and Zar Dat Gyi Island (also known as St.
Matthew's Island). The St. Mattrew's Island base, the biggest of the four,
also has the direct satellite link with China. In addition, there has been
an increased Chinese naval presence off the Myanmar coast, according to
Asian diplomats. There is also concern over the deep-sea port under
construction at Kyauk Phyu, Ramree Island off the Arakan coast, ostensibly to provide an Indian Ocean port for Chinese exports.

China, of course, categorically denies that it has anything to do with the
Coco Islands. Only, the facts speak otherwise. There are obvious reasons
why China would want an Indian Ocean port for trade - the most important
being that this would halve its shipping costs to Europe. But since
India's military is second in Asia only to China's, Beijing would also
like to keep an eye on its only serious regional rival.

Besides the sea route, China is also serious about building roads links
with Myanmar. A road has been built from China's Yunnan province to Bhamo
in Myanmar, from which the Irrawaddy river is navigable to all points
south. At the south end of the Irrawaddy, a road is being upgraded from
Minhla (north of Prome or Pyay) to the town of An on the Arakan (Rakhine) coast, and a causeway to be constructed to Kyauk Phyu harbour.

Minhla's proximity to important military installations and arms and
Ordinance factories in Myanmar raises concern that planned new weapon
Plants surveyed by Chinese engineers in 1994 might be made operational.
The port has naval potential and is seen as a long-term security threat to
India. According to one Asian military analyst, the water in the area is deep and capable of hiding submarines.

In a related development in March 1997, a 30 years fishing lease was
signed, allowing 225 Chinese fishing boats to trawls in Myanmar's waters.
China has traditionally used fishing boats as a cover for intelligence
gathering in the past. Dr Swaran Singh of the Institute for defence
studies and analyses (IDSA) points out that in November 1994, the Indian
Coast Guard intercepted a trawler equipped with sophisticated surveillance equipment. Heeding China's appeal not to make the issue an international
one, India downplayed the incident. However, points out that the threat should not be seen solely in the naval perspective, since the proliferation in small arms, drug production and money laundering in the region has a direct long term impact on India's North eastern states.

Chinese technical and training staff, around 400, have been present in
Myanmar since the early 90's, and hundreds of Myanmar's military personnel are known to have trained in China over the last six years. Since 1988,

The vast majority of Myanmar's military imports have come from China,
largely because only China was willing to provide with soft loans.
According to military analysts, China has assisted Myanmar in developing new infantry machine guns and automatic rifles to be manufactured in Myanmar.

India apart, other neighbors are also concerned at these developments.
Since 1995, Singapore has been operating twice-weekly surveillance flights over Myanmar's coast, using C-130s and Fokker F-50s equipped with signals intelligence gear.

Jane's Defence Weekly said in January 1994 that "a signals intelligence
station has been established on Great Coco Island, but it is unclear
whether the facility is controlled by Rangoon or Beijing." The report
revealed the construction of a 50-meter tower on the isolated Island. It quoted Chinese sources as saying that work on the island had begun two years before "with Chinese technicians installing Chinese supplied
equipment". The signals station "is thought to cover the Andamans
facilities together with shipping in the Bay of Bengal, Andaman sea and
Malacca strait," the Weekly reported. The station will monitor
communications in these areas and later may also monitor Indian Missile
tests, it said.

The International Defense Review reported later the same year that the
50-meter antenna for signals intelligence had been detected by US
satellites. "The suspicion that this new equipment was likely to be
operated at least in part by Chinese technicians led to fears that
Beijing's intelligence agencies would monitor this sensitive region." The
intelligence station could observe India's missile tests at
Chandipur on-sea, the journal said, and that India made several diplomatic protests to Myanmar over this.

But a 1995 article in Jane's Intelligence Review said there was no
conclusive proof of an intelligence station on Coco Island. A monitoring station from mainland Myanmar would be more useful to China, it said. The article spoke of Indian reports that "China already conducts electronic and other surveillance in the Indian ocean from trawlers of the kind captured in the Bay of Bengal."

Jane's Intelligence Review reported last year that "Chinese strategic
literature continues to list India as one of China's most likely opponent
in regional conflicts." It referred to the remark in 1993 by a senior
officer of China's People Liberation Army and director of the Chinese
Academy of Military Sciences that China cannot accept "India's naval
expansion and that 'we are not prepared to let the Indian Ocean become
Indian's Ocean." It said that "strategic alliances with Pakistan in the
southwest and Myanmar in the southeast thus constitute the linchpin of
Beijing's strategy."

Myanmar's coast is 1,930 long and includes 852 islands. According to a
paper of the Strategic and Defense Studies Center in Canberra, Myanmar
claims a territorial sea of 12 nautical miles, a contiguous zone of 24
nautical miles and an exclusive economic zone of 200 nautical miles. That
makes for a legitimate Myanmarâ€™s presence in waters very close to the
Andamans. But the paper also says that Myanmar government may not permit the Chinese the unlimited access they want.

India's relations with Myanmar deteriorated simultaneously following
strong criticism of the military junta, though there are reports of
attempts to improve relations following a visit by former foreign
secretary J. N. Dixit. But reports in defense journals speak of a closer
relationship between Myanmar and Pakistan, with the exchange of several
defense missions, and unconfirmed reports of supply of Pakistani arms and ammunition to Myanmar.

Most US experts, however, scoffed at the notion that China was
"encircling" India strategically. "There is almost nothing serious in
These suspensions. As far as I know and the US government knows, the
Facilities that the Chinese have helped to build in the Coco islands are
relatively small-scale and not designed to serve major Chinese ships,"
said Paul Kreisberg of the Woodrow Wilson Institute. But a State
Department expert on China felt that there were more chances of an
Indo-China row over the border issue, since it would take years for China to have the capability to move into the Indian Ocean. If the Chinese couldnot make a serious treat to Taiwan, they would hardly be likely to do so in the Andamans, says a Congressional source.

Sumit Ganguly of New York's City University has the last word. He agree
with George Fernandes's assertion that China is a threat to India and is happy that "someone has shown some spine and spoken out against the
Chinese and put them on notice."

Shankar · Post by **Shankar** » 08 Feb 2008 12:25

CHINAS INSATIABLE THIRST FOR OIL AND GAS -2000-09

China's Oil & Gas Import Strategy (2001 to 2020)
A unique report on China's role in the exploration, production and transportation of both domestic and foreign hydrocarbon resources
Peter Enav (February 2001)

This report considers China's oil and gas import needs during the period from 2000 to 2020. It analyses the economic, political and geo-political factors that will likely impact on the country's oil and gas development strategy, and describes the prospective foreign role in the exploration, production and transport of both domestic and foreign hydrocarbon resources.
Always assuming that China's oil production and oil consumption levels conform to the median of three possible scenarios, its oil import needs in 2020 should amount to 6.2m bbl/d - more than 5m bbl/d over the 1999 level. The median 2020 production scenario is based on falling output in veteran East Coast oilfields, moderate gains in new offshore developments and small gains in Xinjiang province. The median consumption scenario is based on average annual GDP growth rates of about 5% and a rise in oil's share in the overall Chinese fuel pie from the 11% that prevailed in 1999 to 25% by 2020.
A second Chinese oil import scenario for 2020-high production and low consumption- would yield 3.1m bbl/d. Alternatively, a low production and high consumption scenario would raise the required import level to 9.15m bbl/d.
The leading source of China's oil imports in 2020 is almost certain to be conventional oil purchases - this as opposed to new purchases of foreign oil properties. Based on both the availability of oil supplies and the uncertainty of production prospects in non-Opec countries, most of the purchases are likely to come from the Persian Gulf. Under a low Persian Gulf import scenario, China's 2020 Persian Gulf oil imports would likely total 3.5m bbl/d, divided among Saudi Arabia (800,000 bbl/d), Kuwait (500,000 bbl/d), the UAE (500,000 bbl/d), Iraq (700,000 bbl/d), Iran (500,000 bbl/d), Oman (300,000 bbl/d) and Yemen (200,000 bbl/d). Some of the Iranian and Iraqi oil-perhaps as much as 20%-would be produced by the China National Petroleum Company (CNPC) either on a production sharing basis or a buy-back basis.
A moderate Persian Gulf oil import scenario would likely lead to a Chinese Persian Gulf oil offtake of 4.1m bbl/d in 2020. Under such a scenario, Saudi Arabia might supply 900,000m bbl/d of the total, Kuwait 600,000 bbl/d, the UAE 600,000 bbl/d, Iraq 800,000 bbl/d, Iran 600,000 bbl/d, Oman 350,000 bbl/d and Yemen 250,000 bbl/d. Once again about 20% of the Iranian and Iraqi oil would be produced by CNPC on either a production sharing or buy-back basis.
A high Persian Gulf oil import scenario would likely lead to a Chinese Persian Gulf oil offtake of 4.7 m bbl/d in 2020. Under such a scenario, Saudi Arabia might supply 1m bbl/d of the total, Kuwait 700,000 bbl/d, the UAE 700,000 bbl/d, Iraq 900,000 bbl/d, Iran 800,000 bbl/d, Oman 350,000 bbl/d and Yemen 250,000 bbl/d. As in the low and moderate scenarios, about 20% of the Iranian and Iraqi oil would probably be produced by CNPC on either a production sharing or buy-back basis.
In addition to the Persian Gulf, at least two other areas have the potential to contribute substantial amounts of oil to the Chinese import pie in 2020. Always assuming continuing growth in overall West African oil development, China's West African oil import total could well rise to 400,000 bbl/d by 2020 - mostly from Nigeria and Angola. Another 400,000 bbl/d could conceivably come from Russia, always assuming the construction of a 2,300km pipeline from Angarsk (north-west of Irkutsk) to a still to be designated Chinese port on the country's east coast. Mongolia and Alaska could also contribute to the Chinese oil import total, but only in relatively small amounts.
Notwithstanding the large-scale purchases of foreign oil properties made by CNPC in 1997, the foreign oil purchase option is likely to play only an ancillary role in China's oil import strategy during the first two decades of the 21st Century. This reflects CNPC's considerable difficulties in adopting itself to foreign business environments (particularly in Central Asia) and its continuing concerns over the security of oil transport through the Persian Gulf.
The construction of a dedicated oil pipeline from western Kazakhstan to China's rapidly growing east coast industrial heartland could mitigate the security problem at least to a certain extent, but given the huge expense involved - and CNPC's doubts over oil throughput sufficiency - it should not be considered to be likely.
China's gas imports in 2020 are likely to total 35 bn cu metres/yr - all of them new. This would reflect the median among three possible gas import scenarios. Under this median scenario, moderate regulatory reform in the Chinese gas industry would combine with rising environmental consciousness to create a gas production level of 80 bn cu metres/yr and a gas consumption level of 115 bn cu metres/yr. Alternatively, a high production and low consumption scenario would yield China a 25 bn cu metre/yr gas import requirement in 2020. Conversely, a low production, high consumption scenario would increase that amount to 55 bn cu metres/yr.
Particularly in light of expected gas demand in China's southeast and eastern coastal areas, the country's 2020 gas import strategy is likely to focus on the construction of two large-scale LNG receiving stations - one in Guangdong province near the city of Guangzhou and the other in the region of Shanghai. These projects should contribute approximately 14 bn cu metres/yr to China's gas requirements. Largely on the basis of gas transport concerns and China's desire to deepen its relations with its South-east Asian neighbours, Malaysia appears to be a good candidate to furnish a large part of the required LNG feedstock.
In addition to the Guangdong and Shanghai LNG receiving stations, China is also likely to require the construction of at least one import oriented gas pipeline by 2020. In late 2000, the leading candidate for this was a 25 bn cu metre/yr line between the East Siberian city of Irkutsk and the Chinese capital of Beijing. Its main selling point is the ballast it would provide for the rapidly budding Sino-Russian relationship. At the same time, it would also obviate the need for the construction of a costly internal gas pipeline network between Shanghai and Xinjiang province in the far west. Such a network would be required were China to opt to build a gas pipeline between Turkmenistan and Xinjiang - something that in late 2000 seemed unlikely.

mdhoat · Post by **mdhoat** » 09 Feb 2008 05:54

Keep up the good work Shankar. You are doing a awesome job but I have a request though. Please don't waste too much time and effort in building the scenario as happened with the Australian Uranium scenario. I believe everyone would agree to see the real action start asap so there's more chance that you will complete the scenario and not left us dangling in the middle like Vivek did. No hard feelings Vivek I know you are busy on your book, so take your time and come post back whenever you are done.