China Military Watch

[Don]

China starts producing Russian Mi-171 helicopters - paper
10:57 | 12/ 05/ 2008
http://en.rian.ru/russia/20080512/107127123.html

MOSCOW, May 12 (RIA Novosti) - A manufacturing plant in southwest China has started to assemble Russian-designed Mi-171 transport helicopters, one of Russia's key arms exports, the Russian business daily Vedomosti said on Monday.

China plans to build at least 20 helicopters in 2008 with assembly kits supplied by a Russian plant in Ulan-Ude and later increase production capacity to 80 aircraft per year.

"We consider this project as the beginning of a trend to assembly Russian helicopters in China," the newspaper quoted a source in Oboronprom, which controls Russian Helicopters, a helicopter manufacturing group.

Mi-171 is an export version of the Mi-8 Hip helicopter, which is currently in production at two factories in Kazan and Ulan-Ude, fitted with more powerful turboshaft engines.

According to Vedomosti, the Lantian Helicopter Company, based in Sichuan province, has already received orders worth $42.8 million.

"The Chinese are planning to export [Mi-171] helicopters to Pakistan and Africa, which may hurt Russian exports," the source said. "In addition, the successful implementation of the project could leave Russian manufacturers short of component parts."

In 2007, Russian companies only built 120 Mi-171 helicopters, although they had orders for 150 aircraft, due to a shortage of transmissions and rotors, and according to estimates, there are no plans in the future to increase production for these components.

At the same time, some Russian experts believe it is better to allow the Chinese to manufacture helicopters under license rather than sit and wait until China develops its own version, modeled on Russian designs, Vedomosti said.

[Sanjay M]

China Buying Directed Sound Weapon from US

This is a non-lethal crowd control technology, so apparently it's not covered under weapons sales bans.

[sauravjha]

http://www.spacewar.com/reports/Extensi ... t_999.html

[satya]

A military strategy to match peaceful rise

China's military strategy is active defense. The world is in the process of major changes and adjustments. Peace and development remains the principal theme in today's world and the overall international security environment remains stable. But, uncertainties and destabilizing factors are on the increase. Traditional and non-traditional security issues are intertwined and the international community is increasingly facing comprehensive, diverse and complex security threats.

China's overall security environment remains sound. There is no real threat of large-scale enemy invasions. However, China's security still faces challenges that must not be neglected.

Modernizing a huge country of 1.3 billion people is an unprecedented exercise and China faces security issues that arise in the process of social, economic, ecological and other developments. Reform in China is at a critical stage, as there is much room for improvement in market economy, and we have become more dependent on the global economy. The three vicious forces of terrorism, separatism and extremism pose an increasingly grave threat to security in China's border areas. While traditional security threats driven by military and political motives still exist, non-traditional security concerns on economy, information, energy resources, strategic shipping channels, ecology and terrorism are on the rise.

As a country that is yet to achieve ultimate unification, China is faced with an arduous task of opposing independence of Taiwan. The Taiwan issue concerns China's sovereignty and territorial integrity, and therefore involves China's core interest. It is the most important task for China to firmly oppose and stop separatist activities in Taiwan.

In order to adapt to the changes of international strategic situation and national security environment, China instituted the military strategy of active defense in the new period. Its main contents are as follows.

First, take winning information-centric local wars as the overall objective. The principal contradiction faced by the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) in its modernization drive is that the level of modernization cannot match the requirements of winning information-centric local wars. Going with the tide of the world's military development and steer the modernization drive toward information-centric defense, the PLA will promote the simultaneous development of information warfare and mechanization; gradually complete the transition from mechanized and semi-mechanized to information-centric defense; and achieve overall capability improvement in the fields of firepower, assault, mobility, protection and information.
Second, prevent conflicts and wars. In order to secure the key strategic window of opportunities for national development and the overall national interests, the PLA is committed to complementing political, economic and diplomatic endeavors with any military strategy and tactics necessary to prevent conflicts and wars. China will always follow the nuclear policy of never to be the first to use nuclear weapons and the strategy of nuclear arms for self-defense only. Its fundamental goal is to convince any country planning and threatening to use nuclear weapons against China that it is suicidal to start a nuclear war. And China will never join a nuclear arms race with any other country.

Third, enhance the capability of conducting joint operations and accomplishing diversified military tasks. In order to meet the requirement of modern warfare and deal with various security threats, the PLA bases its battle preparedness on joint operations, focuses on enhancing deterrent and real-war operational capabilities of the armed forces as well as the capability to conduct military operations without a war.

Fourth, push forward the revolution in military affairs with Chinese characteristics. In order to meet the challenges of the worldwide revolution in military affairs, the PLA implements a strategy to improve the quality of the armed forces and build a strong military by means of science and technology. The PLA tries to enhance the innovative capability and develop national defense science and technology; conduct training for information-centric warfare and rear a generation of high-caliber military personnel primed for the future.

Fifth, develop the strategy and tactics of people's war.(wasnt people's war concept given up for War Zone strategy ? ) China's real advantage and strength comes from relying on the people to develop and fortify national defense. In face of the ever-changing modern warfare, China exercises the combination of a streamlined standing army with a powerful reserve force for national defense, paying great attention to the development of reserve forces and the militia. It has created and perfected a unified and highly-efficient defense mobilization mechanism in accordance with the principle of combining peacetime needs with wartime needs and the army with the people, and having reserve soldiers among the people; and is working on new battle tactics suitable for the people to participate in under modern conditions and exert the overall might of people's war.

Sixth, foster a security environment conducive to China's peaceful development.( significant from indian PoV ) Implementing the strategy and foreign policy of peaceful development, the PLA develops cooperative military relations that are non-aligned, non-confrontational and not directed against any third party, opposes power politics and hegemony. China participates in UN peacekeeping operations, international counter-terrorism cooperation and international disaster relief operations.

It plays an active part in maintaining global and regional peace and stability. Since 2002, China has held 18 joint military exercises with 11 countries. Since 1990, China has sent more than 9,000 personnel to participate in 18 UN peacekeeping operations. Eight lost their lives on duty. Among the five permanent members of UN Security Council, China has become one of the countries that sent the most peacekeeping troops. At present, China has 1,700 military peacekeeping personnel serving in UN peacekeeping operations.

In addition, PLA personnel have joined in international rescue operations after the Indian Ocean Tsunami and the earthquakes in Algeria, Iran, Indonesia and Pakistan. They are also active participants in rescue work in domestic disasters such as earthquakes and floods.

The author is a researcher with PLA's Academy of Military Science

[Mihir.D]

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/Worl ... 046278.cms


In what could cause concerns for India, commercial satellite imagery revealed an extensive nuclear missile site in central China with nearly sixty launch pads for medium-range missiles capable of striking Russia as well.

The images from Google Earth show different types of launch pads, command and control facilities, and missile deployment equipment at a large facility in downtown Delingha, said Hans Kristensen, a researcher with the Federation of American Scientists.

"The US government often highlights China's deployment of new mobile missiles as a concern but keeps the details secret, so the discovery of the deployment area provides the first opportunity for the public to better understand how China operates its mobile ballistic missiles," he wrote.

The find comes only two weeks after the discovery of a secret Chinese nuclear submarine base on Hainan Island in South China Sea, also using commercial satellite imagery and published by Jane's Intelligence Review.

The latest images were posted along with Kristensen's analysis on the website of the Federation of American Scientists. Kristensen said the imagery revealed missile launch sites along a 275-kilometer (170 miles) stretch of highway leading from the city of Delingha through Da Qaidam to Mahai in the northern part of Qinghai province.

Thirty-six launch pads were arrayed in three strings extending north of the highway and west of Delingha. Another 22 launch pads were detected in an area running west of Da Qaidam to Mahai, according to Kristensen's analysis.

"From these launch pads DF-21 missiles would be within range of southern Russia and northern India (including New Delhi), but not Japan, Taiwan or Guam," he wrote. DF-21s are medium range solid fuel missiles that have been replacing China's older DF-3 and DF-4 liquid fuel missiles.

Kristensen said the imagery shows what appear to be a buried command and control bunker marked by antennas at each of the deployment area. In downtown Delingha, images show what appear to be the headquarters of a missile brigade base with tent-like structures of identical size and design as structures previously detected on DF-21 launch pads.

An open area near the base contained what appeared to be camouflaged nets over unidentified vehicles, he said.

[sauravjha]

more detailed analysis on this missile site.

http://www.fas.org/blog/ssp/2008/05/ext ... -china.php

[prashanth]

Land based missile threat from China was expected. This latest news only indicates China's attitude towards India. The high ups in India must have known this long back.

[nayar]

I dont understand one thing... China is giving every indication that it wants to dictate terms to other countries including India..why is India silent...why do we keep saying we are not in a race with China ?? coz I believe that we are in one...

[jahaju]

All these things may one thing, that the GoI may be plannning to build it up to a cresendo which will enable it to sign the nuke deal 2-3 months down the line (by which time inflation will be reduced and 6cpc implemented )and will put pressure on the lefties. if the govt falls, call elections.

[Juggi G]

Tip of Sikkim is Latest India-China FlashPoint
Indian Express

[quote]Tip of Sikkim is Latest India-China FlashPoint
Pranab Dhal Samanta
Posted online: Sunday, May 18, 2008 at 0023 hrs

Beijing sends ‘informal’ threat to demolish stone structures in Finger Area, India protests, bans Chinese troop entry

New Delhi, May 17: China has surprised India by laying claim on a small tract of land in North Sikkim, even threatening this week to demolish existing stone structures there. India has strongly rebutted these claims, lodged an official protest and barred Chinese troops from entering the area.

Referred to as the “Finger Areaâ€

[Shankar]

they are just posturing -they know the capability of indian army today particularly in north east - with olympic around the corner surely they are not looking for a border skirmish

Feel the last Agni 3 was a bit to much for them to digest and our economic growth and world attention on us for last few years is getting them green with envy -just like in 50 s -so they attempting some thing like 62 is not unlikely may be in a smaller scale

And then is our funny sleeping stupid government - dilly dallying on MRCA ,Amur,guns and what not just keeping busy by avoiding all decisions

This government is maybe the worst we ever got - they have naaged to slow down the economy by stupid things like fringe benifit tax,loan n waiver to farmers leading to massive inflation ,and they will turn a blind eye to provocations or initiate a preemptive action without getting prepared for it -just like it was in 62 and it happens to be the same government only diffwerent in first name

China knows this inside out and they are simply playing out a pre practiced scenario

[sauravjha]

Just a word of caution, if our military planners are indeed serious about taking on China , the U.S ( in the regional context) and of course Pukistan, they better get their act together on procurement.

every major acquisition is getting delayed and indigenous weapon systems are being deemed unsatisfactory.
they would do well to remember, that quantity has it's own quality and even if a weapon is Best-2
but can be manufactured and maintained in house , it is a much superior option than deploying a few piecemeal silver bullet weapons.

[VinodTK]

sauravjha

Just a word of caution, if our military planners are indeed serious about taking on China , the U.S ( in the regional context) and of course Pukistan, they better get their act together on procurement.

You are right on sauravjha , history proves this; That is Indians are slow to be prepared in the are of national defense and the nation has paid a heavy price. The last 1600 hundred years prove it.

[uddu]

Tip of Sikkim is Latest India-China FlashPoint



Arunachal not enough, now China wants Sikkim
Link

Response must be.

India considers Tibet as a free and independent nation. Our full support to the Tibetan cause.

India downplays Chinese claim on Sikkim land
Link

I still don't realise why the government is acting against Indian interest. The Indian interest will be to see a free and independent Tibet. What's the use of this military muscle. Better have a police force ONLEE if this is the Indian response to threat from china.

Another one
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/JE15Df01.html

If our leader is like Indira Gandhi right now, things must have been very interesting.

[Raj Malhotra]

China talked about peace for 45 years after 1962 as they had not developed their border infrastructure. Now they have the infrastructure and we have our stupid babus. So they will push their agenda, come what may!

[vivek_ahuja]

Tip of Sikkim is Latest India-China FlashPoint
plays_Chinese_claim_on_Sikkim_land/articleshow/3051791.cms]Link[/url]

I still don't realise why the government is acting against Indian interest. The Indian interest will be to see a free and independent Tibet.

I have raised this issue before, but I will repeat it again here just to be sure:

What is in India's interest: To fight a war when the Chinese come prepared or to fight a war when we are prepared? Do you think its in India's interests to lose a war again simply becuase our ego was hurt by chinese words?

Tactical actions such as small unit movements etc along the Indo-China Border are to be expected. Given the sensitivity of the border, military forces will bump into each other regularly. But the response to that is not to start a tit-for-tat kind of war, but to stop them before they take place, and it is in fact relatively simple to do that if your Army is equipped to do so. By this I mean gathering tactical intelligence preemptively to block any Chinese moves. However. if they open fire, then that's a different matter.

The 1962 war happened because Nehru was pushed by the political opposition who in turn had a similar kind of thought process as that being voiced by BR posters. He was forced into trying to stare the Chinese down. Unfortunately, he did it standing on a very shaky and weak military base. The IA was not ready at the time to take on the Chinese. But thanks to the GOI, it was forced into play and we all know the results. For that we all blame the GOI for the 1962 debacle.

Now, we blame the GOI for not pushing the chinese. If the BR posters had their way, the GOI could/would never do anything right, wouldn't it?

What's the use of this military muscle. Better have a police force ONLEE if this is the Indian response to threat from china.

What military muscle? With the big-ticket procurements being getting delayed to the point of being laughable and with the IA not willing to help itself by taking indigenous products, what muscle are you talking about? The Indian Military is in a phase of transition, and it will remain so for at least the next few years. If anything, at the moment we are not ready to take on any high intensity war with full confidence of winning it, despite what the service chiefs say to the media.

The point is that the Chinese have been preparing for war for four decades. After about two decades of being wary of the Chinese after 1962, we seem to have been in a state of self-delusion regarding the chinese intentions. Now they are far closer to being ready than we are. Here I am talking about infrastructure. China has also pushed enormous numbers of troops into the Tibet region in the wake of the Tibet uprisings. Tibet is at the moment a large military base. Airfields are being upgraded and road and rail links are making the traditional mountain wall more porous than ever.

The main problem is that India's strategic military response is almost paralyzed thanks to total lack of interest in building up the required military infrastructure in the NE. All such plans of deploying SU-30s and upgrading airfields and building roads only come as panic responses to something that is already built and deployed on the other side of the border.

The Chinese see a window opening up in th next few years where India's forces will be weaker while theirs will be stronger and on firmer infrastructure footing. What they need next is a trigger. All the news you see above is the result of a China wanting to push a confrontation towards the ground of its choosing.

So how do you remedy the situation? For one thing, it needs to be realized that the solution will take years to get implemented beyond the point at which you accept that there is in fact a problem, even if we do it on a war footing. Second step is then to buy time. Third step is to use that time to buy and integrate weapon systems into your military forces.

If anything, the GOI has to be commended for remaining calm. Unless your ego is hurt with regard to Chinese actions, the wise move is always to deny the enemy a battle on his terms whilst simultaneously striving to push the battle in your own terms.

Its time we learned something useful from the painful 1962 experience.

[Philip]

Just as the Pakis under Gen.Zia beefed up support to the Khalistani movement,while secretly planning the Kashmiri terrorist and insurgency camapaign,to keep India's attention diverted,so also are the Chinese playing the threat to Taiwan also.Taiwan poses no real threat to them whatsoever.What the Chinese with their economy on the boil require is vast sources of energy,minerals of all kinds and uranium especially to run their economic and military machine.That the west and the US in particular have the strongest presence in the Gulf is well understood by the Chinese.Hence their "string of pearls" strategy in the IOR and encirclment of India,the strongest power in the IOR and their rival in Asia.
Military sales of nuclear and missile technology to Pak,the same to Iran exemplify the Chinese way of insuring themselves in a crisis.I've spoken for years on their infiltration in Lanka and the new port being built by them at Hambantota.Burma,Lanka-using Pak for military assistance,Bangladesh are the other beneficiaries of Chinese military and economic aid.

The great Chinese push will not be the annexation of Taiwan,already part castrated,with the Taiwanese people electing as their rulers,soft leadership who will hesitate to declare independence.Taiwan has therefore effectively been neutralised and as the Chinese hope for,will one day when the 'fruit is ripe",fall into China's laps without the need to go to war.China The game that China is now playing is to test India on the border,challenging our leadership and military regarding the sovereignity of our territory,while using their lies and chicanery to obfuscate the truth of the issue,divert attention from their deplorable illegal rule in Tibet and the world's focus on it right now.The real intention of China is to enter and dominate the Indian Ocean Region (IOR),using satellite states in the IOR to provide logistic and base facilities.It hopes to neutralise India through organising and using elements in Pak,Bangladesh,etc., to destabilise us internally through terrrorism,support breakaway factions in the border states,especially in the N-East and keep us tied down ,unable to prevent its domination of the IOR and its eventual entry into the Gulf.It alreadycan move troops there through the Karakorum highway and Pak and its pushing Afghanistan into its sphere of influence through the copper mining agreement I posted a few days ago.

India will have to strongly refute these Chinese lies and start out own campaign on the diplomatic and military front.We should also challenge China'ssovereignity in Tibet and the border areas and claim as our territory several areas in dispute as well as demanding a Chinese withdrawal from territory that pak has handed over to it in the northern sector.We also have no alternative but to arm the Tibetan movement and prepare for an insurgency to free Tibet one day.China must learn to its dismay that we can stand up,fight and kick it in the backside for its eprfidy whenever we so desire.Above all,our propaganda machine must move into high gear to educate the nation on this most dangerous threat from China and to extinguish and defeat pro-Chinese mouthpieces like Frontline,which in its latest issue with a special feature on "the question of Tibet",could not serve as a mouthpiece for the People's Daily any better.

Whether the current dispensation is able to deliver on this frightening threat is questionable.Our PM has finally seen the light for a new agency to tackle terror,something that his states refused to accept when put forard by the previous gvot,. of the day.There is an excellent piece in the media today by a Frenchman,Francois Gautier,friend of India,who asks why the govt.repeatedly after a terrorist outrage speaks in platitudes asking the people to be vigilant,gives money to the victim's families,but is unable unlike the Spanish after the Madrid train bombings,to find the guilty perpetrators and punish them! We have little time left in which to take urgent measures to defeat China'sdiabolic plans.Once the Olympics are over,The dragon's fiery breath will be felt by us in fuller measure.

[uddu]

The Indian way of thinking is a wrong one. How long it took us to retake Aksai chin from China. Are we still strengthening ourself to retake it. We will keep repeating it that we must strengthen ourself for the Chinese invasion. When will this happen. When will we be ready to prevent the Chinese invasion When this happen in the future Arunachal and Sikkim will be part of China.

[sanjaychoudhry]

What is in India's interest: To fight a war when the Chinese come prepared or to fight a war when we are prepared?

This is strange logic. First, India refuses to arm itself adequately citing moral issues and claiming itself to be an apostle of non-violence. And then it cite its lack of military strenght as an excuse not to go to war regardless of how much it is bullied. What nonsense!!

First you deliberately create a condition. Then you cite that self-created condition as an excuse for inaction!

What exactly is the reason that India has not been able to prepare itself against China even after fifty years? The world's arms markets are open to us and arms dealers are falling over themselves trying to sell us the latest cutting-edge arms which are much better than China. Who is to blame?

One cannot cite his own stupdity to excuse himself.

[vsudhir]

China: Earthquake buried 32 sources of radiation

[Juggi G]

India Sets Up Permanent Post in Finger Area
IndianExpress

India Sets Up Permanent Post in Finger Area
Express News Service
Posted online: Tuesday, May 20, 2008 at 2306 hrs

NEW DELHI, MAY 19: In an attempt to thwart increasing aggressiveness by the Chinese over control of the ‘Finger Area’ in North Sikkim, India has strengthened defences and converted its positions into a permanent post to keep watch over troop movements.

While the Northernmost tip of Sikkim, which is just over a kilometre in length, was always part of Indian Territory, the Army earlier used to send in only regular patrols and had a few traditional defensive positions in the area.

The decision to set up a permanent position came two months ago after an unusually high number of intrusions in the area and a discovery eight months ago that the alignment of a new East-West road being built by China would pass thorough the Finger Area. Things heated up after China ‘informed’ India that it would need to blast some stone formations along the border to make way for the road.

While construction was halted after a diplomatic complaint was lodged by New Delhi, the Indian Army, which currently holds the area, strengthened bunkers, built new vehicle tracks, repaired old roads and set up defensive positions to counter any possible threat.

The ‘Finger Area’, which falls north of Gyangyong in Sikkim and overlooks a valley known as the Sora Funnel, is considered a strong defensive position to ward off any move by China to enter the Sikkim plateau.

Sources said the Army always had a permanent presence in the area and had constructed bunkers and temporary posts since 1962. The Stone Cairns, which China had threatened to destroy, had also been modified as defensive positions by the Army . The Kalimpong-based 27 Mountain Division is responsible for the defence of Northern Sikkim and the Finger Area.

The Indian ‘build-up’ in the area had prompted a diplomatic protest by Beijing. However, the Army stuck to its stance that it had troops in the area prior to the movement of the 27 Mountain Division.

[Philip]

...and that all Tibetans are really Indians,including the "splittist" Dalai Lama,a follower of one of India's greatest sons,the Buddha.Therefore,the Dalai Rama,head of Tibetan Buddhism and ,Nobel Peace Plize winner is Indian! China is illegally squatting on Indian tellitoly!

[Anantz]

Well the area of North Sikkim falls under 17th Mountain Divisions 'Black cats' based in Gangtok and not 27th Mountain Division based in kalimpong. The 27th Mountain Division looks after parts of Eastern Sikkim near jelep la and the area near the Sikkim China Bhutan trijunction.

[sauravjha]

Chicom continues to "get" tech. this time it might be plasma actuators.

http://blog.wired.com/defense/2008/05/r ... ofess.html


some rather technical reference material on Plasma actuators:

http://plasma.ee.utk.edu/~plasma/publi/GEC_3D_2003.pdf

http://plasma.ece.utk.edu/~plasma/publi/Reno%202006.pdf

[Juggi G]

China Emerging as Main Source of Arms to N-E rebels : Jane’s Review
IndianExpress

[sauravjha]

Harrumph . when will Jane tell us something that we don't know?

[Juggi G]

Games China Plays
IndianExpress

Games China Plays
Shantonu Choudhry
Posted online: Thursday, May 22, 2008 at 0016 hrs


Lt General (Retd) Shantonu Choudhry, the former Vice Chief of Army Staff

Expect China to up the ante after the Olympic games in August 2008, and the attempt will be more flagrant if India’s political centre is perceived as weak

The 4,056 km long frontier between India and China remains unmarked on map and ground. Talks to resolve the border issue have taken place over the last 20 years at different levels of officialdom without any fruitful result.

Between 2002 and 2005 a degree of sanguineness did develop leading to hopes of an early breakthrough. But talks again started to cool off, mainly because of closer Indo-US ties and the possibility of the nuclear deal. In 2006, prior to the visit of President Hu Jintao to New Delhi, a highly provocative statement was given out by the Chinese Ambassador claiming the whole of Arunachal Pradesh as Chinese territory. Soon after this came the refusal of visa by the Chinese to an Indian civil service officer belonging to Arunachal on the specious ground that Arunachal belonged to China. Then, the Chinese protest on the visit of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh to Arunachal. Parallel to these developments is an increase in the intrusions of Chinese troops across the line of actual control and the Sikkim cairn issue .

Historically, China has settled her border disputes with other countries when it has perceived the adversary to be weak. So it would appear that China has pushed the border issue to the backburner and is in no hurry to resolve it except on its own terms. Therefore there would be periodic attempts to make humiliating claims, questioning of Indian sovereignty on Arunachal and parts of Ladakh. Could it, in the extreme case, also lead to a border conflict?

The strategic growth of the Indian economy and the country’s recent attempts to develop closer ties with the US are viewed with deep suspicion by China. The Chinese fear that growing US ties with India and the nuclear deal will bring about a shift in the balance of power in South and South East Asia which would be against China’s strategic interests.

We should expect China to up the ante after the Olympic games in August 2008. This could lead to some border skirmishes. Whether this starts in the autumn of 2008 or after the next general elections will depend on the Chinese calculus as to who or which parties are likely to form the next government. The attempt will be more flagrant if India’s political centre is perceived as weak and pusillanimous.

Although the probability of an all-out border war is low, a series of border skirmishes is a distinct possibility. One could ask why China should resort to a conflict. After all, its economy is doing fabulously and it could build its strength further without any distractions. Should it, however, resort to provoking a border conflict and if — it is a big if — it comes out successful, what does it gain? The answer is that in the perceived struggle for rivalry in South and South East Asia, the Indian image can be badly tarnished.

A limited intrusion is possible by both sides, which may remain undetected for a short period, due to the extremely rugged terrain. Such intrusions would have to be vacated thereafter physically. So, the first consideration for the Chinese will be, can they get away with it? I think not. The Indian Armed Forces are no push-over. The second consideration is the image of China, which they have tried to assiduously build, of being a responsible and sober power. Third, there will be larger international repercussions with adverse diplomatic fallout.

Taking the worst case, China may actually like to engineer a border conflict and the Indian political, diplomatic and military leadership must prepare for it. Along the border there are a number of areas where the Chinese enjoy geographical, logistical and tactical advantages. The Indian Army is well aware of them and has contingency plans to counter such a venture. Though neither side will like to escalate the conflict into a major war, the reactions, particularly in a limited and localised conflict, will have to be robust and swift.

Given the above scenario, howsoever remote it may appear today, the political leadership should sit down with the military leaders and ‘wargame’ different scenarios upto their logical conclusions. Shying away from such a possibility may result in the classic predicament of the ostrich in the sand.

The Writer is former Vice Chief of Army Staff

[abhischekcc]

There has been speculation, off and on, that China may engineer a border conflict with India anytime now.

However, all such speculation assume that the Russia and China will not do anything.

People, recall that China has attacked India only when those two countries have been pre-occupied with each other.

1962 happened when US and USSR were having a standoff because of Cuba.

In 1999, these two were pre-occupied with theYugoslav conflict. Chinese border movement during the Kargil war were quickly countered by an American action - which I prefer not to name on an open forum . But some members know what I am talking about.

---------

So, I am saying that any Chinese move against India should also assume a conflict situation between US and Russia, otherwise all such talk will remain speculation.

[sum]

Chinese border movement during the Kargil war were quickly countered by an American action - which I prefer not to name on an open forum

Hint atleast??

[Rahul Shukla]

...Chinese border movement during the Kargil war...

Are you referring to that brief Chinese stroll into Ladakh during Kargil?

[abhischekcc]

>>Hint atleast??

Think Yugoslavia

Think Embassy

Think cruise missiles

That's 3 hints


-----------

>>Are you referring to that brief Chinese stroll into Ladakh during Kargil?

Not really - but that was part.

Here is a link:

BRF

General VP Malik, who headed the force during the 1999 Kargil crisis, also brought in a new angle in his just-published book Kargil - from surprise to victory that China made a "demonstrative support" to Pakistan at the height of the conflict and that its forces almost sparked off a stand-off on the Sino-Indian border in Arunachal Pradesh.

"Chinese had inducted one company in the area opposite Chantze, with the rest of the battalion waiting in the wings," Malik discloses in the book.

The Chinese forces also made a show of force in Demchok, in eastern Ladakh, constructed a track from Spanggur to south end of Pangong lake and a track in Trigg heights.

He says India also received intelligence reports that PLA's Director in the Department of Armament had visited Islamabad during the conflict to help Pakistan army overcome its critical deficiencies in conventional armament, ammunition and equipment.

Read that page

[Rahul Shukla]

Think Yugoslavia

Think Embassy

Think cruise missiles

That's 3 hints

My understanding is that the Chinese embassy in Yugoslavia was hit because it was acting as a communication node for Yugoslavian armed forces. In addition, the embassy was using information received from Yugoslavian military assets to monitor/understand US cruise missile attack strategies and to develop adequate countermeasures for the mainland. Also, word on the streets back then was that Milosevic himself was scheduled to be present there at the time of strike...

Any benefit derived for evil yindoos as a result of diversion of Chinese attention as a result of this strike seems purely coincidental and not a deliberate attempt by Uncle Sam to stand up to the Chinese in favor of us kafirs. So how is this embassy bombing episode related to Kargil?

[Kartik]

...and that all Tibetans are really Indians,including the "splittist" Dalai Lama,a follower of one of India's greatest sons,the Buddha.Therefore,the Dalai Rama,head of Tibetan Buddhism and ,Nobel Peace Plize winner is Indian! China is illegally squatting on Indian tellitoly!

if only our government was capable of such Chankiangiri !

[abhischekcc]

RS,

All talk of why the Embassy was bombed is speculation. However, we do know that the Chinese stopped their chicanery after that episode.

My understanding is that the Chinese embassy in Yugoslavia was hit because it was acting as a communication node for Yugoslavian armed forces.

Ask yourself one question - what would China gain by supporting the Yugoslavs?
This 'reason' one ranks as misdirection.

In addition, the embassy was using information received from Yugoslavian military assets to monitor/understand US cruise missile attack strategies and to develop adequate countermeasures for the mainland.

This is possible. But the US response was overwhelming, they could easily have jammed all radio waves in and around the Embassy. This alone suggests that their was some other reason.

Also, word on the streets back then was that Milosevic himself was scheduled to be present there at the time of strike...

Another wild speculative non-sense.
Maybe Elvis was sighted at the embassy as well.

---------
More tomorrow!

[satya]

The timeline of Kargil War and PLA's troop movement and US's missile attack on PRC's embassy in Belgrad didnt seem really to connect based on dateline .

JMTs

[Rahul Shukla]

All talk of why the Embassy was bombed is speculation. However, we do know that the Chinese stopped their chicanery after that episode.

I can only hope we are not being extra creative by seeing a 'Butterfly Effect' where there is none.

...what would China gain by supporting the Yugoslavs?

Chinese were supposedly acting as communication node for the Yugoslavian armed forces and in return receiving data on US strike patterns to assess US punitive capability and devise countermeasures to defend the mainland. Yugoslavians/Chinese thought that such communication would be 'safe' given the universal sanctity of a diplomatic enclave. Oops!

...US response was overwhelming, they could easily have jammed all radio waves in and around the Embassy.

Why would the Chinese be using radio waves for communicating sensitive information with the Yugoslavians knowing full and well that the US could and would jam all radio emissions in/out of the area? There are other ways like the good old buried land-line, no?

Another wild speculative non-sense. Maybe Elvis was sighted at the embassy as well.

Speculative indeed. But not entirely improbable.

And please dont drag my good friend Elvis into this discussion. I spoke with him just now and he told me that that he has never been to Yugoslavia. No, he is NOT dead!

[abhischekcc]

[Karan Dixit]

The link to old BRF archive posted by abhischekcc was very informative. I remember one thing about VP Malik. During the beginning phase of Kargil conflict, he seemed very flaky but then 1/11 GR captured two well dugin posts. 1/11 GR was commanded by Col Lalit Rai. His lieutenant Manoj Pandey was awarded PVC. Anyhow, after that, VP Malik started to look less flaky. His confidence was back after Rajputana Rifle took Tololing. I have a mixed feelings about VP Malik.

[sauravjha]

there is a tendency among some people to imagine U.S intervention at India's behest when there was none. it is basically borne out of a feeling that the U.S has warmed up to us and that it is seeing us as a bulwark against the Chinese.

In any event , even if it is, we shouldn't be seeing ourselves in the same 'glowing " light. the day the U.S made the statement that they "will help India become a major power" . I became wary. Apart from the downright patronising nature of such comments made at an international level, which should have piqued every proud Indian, it shows that the U.S understands that there is a certain constituency in India who would love to hear such statements emanating from the west.


this so called "natural alliance" nonsense is also ensuring that we don't adequately beef up our military to ensure that the U.S itself is deterred from trying anything against us.

[Philip]

As mentioned several times,JIR now confirms what we have beens aying for long,that China has been supporting rebel movements on India's NEastern borders with military supplies and other forms of support.The relentless manner in which China has been attempting to destabilise and encircle India is a metter of the gravestv concern for India and unless there is a concerted holistic effort to counter China's skullduggery and perfidious behaviour,the country will be at sea with coordinated internal and external attacks engineered by China and its lackey,Pak.Another astonishing fact has also emerged,that China plays both ways,supporting the SL govt. while simultaneously selling arms to tje LTTE!

http://www.indianexpress.com/story/312894.html

China emerging as main source of arms to N-E rebels: Jane’s Review

New Delhi, May 21: China has replaced Cambodia and Thailand as the main supplier of weapons to insurgent groups in India’s Northeast and Myanmar, the Jane’s Intelligence Review (JIR) has said.

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In an analysis of the Asian weapons black market, the defence think-tank says that the United Wa State Army (UWSA) rebel group in Myanmar acts as the “middlemanâ€