shiv wrote:
What if the nuclear deal is signed - say in 3 months time.
What will happen to India (as a consequence of the deal) in
1) 10 years
2) 20 years
3) 50 years
I take the above comment to be an invitation to look into the future.
Accordingly, here is my science fiction. I hope it will function as a not-to-be-taken-seriously diversion from the
head-going-ly serious discussion that is taking place in these threads on what ails India since July 18, 2005, symptoms of the disease, diagnosis, prognosis and possible cures.
Chapter 1 Near term:
In view of the "water-tight" separation required by the US / NSG / IAEA -
1.1) Any incumbent holding "two-in-one" post in BHAVINI as well as in Nuclear Power Corporation (NPCIL), would lose half his/her job (since PFBR would be in the military list at least in the early days, while NPCIL would be civilian).
1.2) "Civil personnel" who are at present living in residences that commingle with those of the "military personnel" may get eviction notices and might face relocation with its attendant (at least temporary) discomforts.
1.3) If there are any wife / husband pairs working in the atomic energy organizations, where one of them is employed in a military facility, then they too may face prospects of separation {there may even be restrictions on any form of communication between them!!) unless both can be accommodated in either any civilian or any military facility, or one of them chooses to give up his/her career.
Chapter 2 Medium term:
2.1) President Bush's prediction that 90% or more of Indian nuclear facilities would come under the safeguards regime, might turn out to be correct. 700 MWe PHWR projects might be placed in the civilian list to facilitate importation of materials / parts / systems. In all probability, imported CANDU ACRs would get preference over Indian 700 MWe PHWRs. This may be in addition to the import of 10 x 1000 MWe LWRs envisaged.
Chapter 3 Long Term:
3.1) The electric grid is not associated in any way with the separation plan. Keeping this in view, one can foresee Energy Intensive Industry Parks (E2IP) may be located, close to -- but not in the same campus as -- Nuclear Electricity Generation Parks where the imported reactors would be located and supply electricity to the grid. This will reduce transmission / theft loses in the electrical energy input to E2IP from the grid.
Now, what industries may the E2IPs house? Noting that E2IPs will be categorized as strategic, not subject to safeguards, here is a possible list:
a) Spent Fuel reprocessing plant(s).
b) U enrichment plant(s) co-located with [a] above - some of these could be used to re-enrich U235 from spent PHWR fuel (after reprocessing), back to Nat U levels. Get the last drop of juice, as it were, from Indian Nat U. May be other isotopic separation plants as well.
c) ADS systems for incineration of radioactive wastes from spent fuel (I presume that these are energy intensive).
d) Metallurgical industries (for both nuclear and non-nuclear applications) that require humongous amounts of energy input - just a few examples could be:
-- manufacture of high quality, large-size ingots of conventional and exotic alloy steels (maraging steel? CVAR / ESR quality products?), aluminum alloys etc.;
-- large size castings and forgings (how about super heavy duty artillery gun-barrels, if there are such things?);
-- large machine shops;
-- the list could be endless.
e) Heavy water plants.
f) Some
samaj kalyan by way of desalination of sea water although this activity by itself would not qualify for being called "military". In addition, plants could also be set up to extract from the sea water, valuable elements such as Deuterium, Uranium, Vanadium, Cobalt and etc.
When there is an abundance of energy (not necessarily the cheapest), many things can be done that could not be done up to now.
3.2) It is possible that in about 10 to 15 years from now first criticality of the first AHWR that is presently at the design stage may be achieved. Even here one could foresee competition from the Canadian Thorium burner / breeder. Dr P.K Iyengar's article
Nuclear power and the Indo-US nuclear deal gives an interesting insight:
Light-water reactors from the US are not the only option. Recently the head of AECL in Canada has issued a statement (published by PTI) which talks of modified Candu reactors which will use MOX fuel involving plutonium and thorium and thus introduce thorium in the fuel cycle earlier than fast breeder reactors – an old concept similar to our Advanced Heavy Water Reactor (AHWR) but utilizing the same hardware of CANDU which will make it most economical. He has also welcomed cooperation in introducing it in India since we have established reprocessing and MOX fuel making facilities long ago some fifteen years. We should grab such opportunities because we have demonstrated successful cooperation with them. It will also free us from the hold of enrichment cartels that can hold us to ransom in the future.