India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Gerard · Post by **Gerard** » 23 Aug 2008 03:53

RaviBg wrote:Can you please delete the posts to avoid duplicate posts? I will remove this post later on.

One is gone but the time limit for editing on the other has passed

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 23 Aug 2008 03:57

No harm done. Let it stay. its not like you are serial offenders.

sraj · Post by **sraj** » 23 Aug 2008 04:19

“Things are really very clear,” a senior official told The Hindu when asked for his reaction to the NSG stalemate. “There was an agreement in 2005 in which we both made certain commitments. We have delivered on all of ours. Now the Americans have to deliver the NSG,” he said, “not us.” In the July 2005 statement, President George W. Bush committed himself to “work with friends and allies to adjust international regimes to enable full civil nuclear energy cooperation and trade with India.” Indian officials say securing NSG clearance by extracting further commitments from India or diluting the scope of cooperation was not part of the bargain.

Time for MMS to start polishing up his "polite letter" to Bush?

Actually, it may not be such a bad thing for this whole thing to implode. Even J18 has things in it which should not be there, such as unilateral commitments from India on adhering to MTCR and not exporting its ENR technology.

There are issues even with this NSG draft waiver. Apart from 2g, what is the net effect of 2d (refraining from exporting ENR technology) + 2f ("committing" to adhere to NSG guidelines) + 4 (NSG guidelines can be changed in the teeth of Indian opposition, only Indian "comments" are required to be solicited)? Basically, NSG can prohibit ENR transfers the day after an India waiver has been passed, and India will be stuck with an ENR repeat of the current situation wrt to MTCR!!

Let's agree on a clear principle for future agreements (another J18 will inevitably come within 5-10 years):

"India shall not commit to support/uphold regimes that continue to target India"

Time to sit back and watch the show. It is the Bush Admn which needs a certain timetable to be followed, not India!

btw, on the Russia issue, could someone elaborate on how exactly Russia benefits from its NSG membership, and what the cost to it would be of walking out of NSG?

The lesson of the 50s and 60s was that the strategic price paid by India to get what it needed from Russia was lower than the price demanded by the West. This episode reveals that perhaps the West has still not changed much. Its those famous steel plants and Nehru/Eisenhower/US Congress all over again!!

Manny · Post by **Manny** » 23 Aug 2008 04:31

There is a time to negotiate and then there is a time to drop it.

This is a time to drop it and move on! Can't do it when the president of the US is lameduck and weak. He sure is weak when the Kimballs of this world can trip him.

But, never ever forget the players.

Manny

putnanja · Post by **putnanja** » 23 Aug 2008 04:40

In a radio interview, New Zealand’s Disarmament Minister Phil Goff spilled the beans that eight countries — his own, Ireland, Austria, Switzerland, Sweden, Norway, Finland and Denmark — were working in concert to make changes to the Amercian “waiver” draft.

Elephants have long memories. Start by dropping Sweden's Gripen from the MRCA contenders. Sometimes, strong action needs to be taken to express our displeasure, and better by doing it where it hurts!

samuel · Post by **samuel** » 23 Aug 2008 05:01

Alvida 123, see you again with thorium I will (or so I hope).
Chances are, this dance will go to the wire, and predict I shall, that it will stop just short.

Which leaves me with the question, what next for India, when this bombs (no pun intended)?

s

Gerard · Post by **Gerard** » 23 Aug 2008 05:14

No good news as NSG meet ends

nkumar · Post by **nkumar** » 23 Aug 2008 05:39

samuel wrote:Alvida 123....

Not so soon sir, this deal will be signed, since it is in US's interest. A deliberate weak diplomatic push at NSG is aimed at securing more commitments from India. It is highly surprising that the pygmy nations opposing the NSG draft can withstand that collective interests of US, Russia and France. There might be more changes in NSG draft, and GoI will agree to whatever draft is agreed upon. Both sides will later claim victory. Media will sing - Singh is King (like it happened after the confidence vote, doesn't matter what Suhail Hindustani has to say). Whatever happened to the, "clean, clear and unconditional" waiver. The intentions were cyrstal clear, starting with Hyde, just that we were deluding ourselves with bijlee blinkers.

ShauryaT · Post by **ShauryaT** » 23 Aug 2008 06:05

ramana wrote: Is the US pulling a fast one to pretend that it was the NSG that prevented the deal coming thru?

No, it is the US way to ensure that its goals on the issue towards India are accomplished through its allies. The goal is and has been strategic reduction. Expect a softer version of Hyde in the new draft. For all the noise of the opposing countires, each and every one of the opposing countries are under the US nuclear Chatra Chaya. Another major troubling aspect is the total lack of diplomatic support from Russia. If the major powers decide strongly on this issue, the smaller power will not have any say. The smaller powers are being given an opening by the major powers. It is the entire purpose of these Alliances and Cartels. The US wants these changes to happen.

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 23 Aug 2008 06:15

Manny wrote:There is a time to negotiate and then there is a time to drop it.

This is a time to drop it and move on! Can't do it when the president of the US is lameduck and weak. He sure is weak when the Kimballs of this world can trip him.

But, never ever forget the players.

Manny

Correct, but we should not drop it let other parties do the dropping. Next time US president sign any strategic deal no country will be sure of US delivering its end of the bargain.There is no harm in watching next NSG Tamasha.

Suppiah · Post by **Suppiah** » 23 Aug 2008 06:45

sraj wrote:
“Things are really very clear,” a senior official told The Hindu when asked for his reaction to the NSG stalemate. “There was an agreement in 2005 in which we both made certain commitments. We have delivered on all of ours. Now the Americans have to deliver the NSG,” he said, “not us.” In the July 2005 statement, President George W. Bush committed himself to “work with friends and allies to adjust international regimes to enable full civil nuclear energy cooperation and trade with India.” Indian officials say securing NSG clearance by extracting further commitments from India or diluting the scope of cooperation was not part of the bargain.
Time for MMS to start polishing up his "polite letter" to Bush?

Interesting isn't it that the pet project of MMS which has occupied / invested all time and bandwidth for so long has suddenly become America's problem and is being spun as such? The article quoted stars with the comment "The United States’ inability to deliver a key part of its side of the July 2005 nuclear bargain with New Delhi became apparent on Friday"

Thanks to god we have UPA/MMS running show. Else the same reporter would have been asked to write 'The pet project of the saffron brigade to get India signed up as a junior partner of the US came crashing today at the NSG. Despite months of lobbying and numerous trip by diplomats and ministers...it appears now the Indain govt. will have to swallow its brave words about no changes to the draft and accept whatever the US gets out of NSG'

Suppiah · Post by **Suppiah** » 23 Aug 2008 06:51

BTW there was already talk that the NSG approval may come too late for the US legislative calender. With the issue getting postponed by two weeks, how does that figure now? Also no word on role played by China in this whole affair.

Even if India were to get approval at NSG it should declare quietly that no major purchases of anything, nuclear or non-nuclear would be made from countries that tried to sabotage the deal..anyway we dont need NZ milk and cheese as we are self-sufficient in that..

Pulikeshi · Post by **Pulikeshi** » 23 Aug 2008 07:16

The key is to notice that none of "yesterday's" institutions are going to disappear
and/or accommodate us with or without US help.

GOI has tried reform at the UNSC - failed
GOI has tried (half heartedly) to get the position of UN Secretary General - failed
GOI has tried to get waiver from NSG - failed

As these failures keep mounting. We can lean in the way of blaming leaders such as MMS
or we can learn that these institutions are not going to change and accommodate change.

The lesson is clear - is GOI listening?

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 23 Aug 2008 08:00

Scale of resistance at NSG could derail waiver - Indrani Bagchi

Sources familiar with developments said, of the 25-plus amendments tabled by around a dozen countries, there are two kinds __ some that can be dealt with easily, like the calls to sign NPT and CTBT or accept fullscope safeguards, which India is unlikely to ever accept and which will not have traction with the bigger NSG members. These are clearly non-starters and are largely intended to cater to the countries' domestic concerns.

But there's the other variety, the procedural and technical amendments, which will need to be worked on much more carefully. In fact, the US and Indian belief that the NSG would ultimately be a political call has been tempered by the nature of the amendments proposed. Interestingly, more objections were directed against the US than India, because most participants said they understood India's needs.

Sifting through the amendments, a few countries are now putting their heads together to work out changes in the draft that would be acceptable to both sides.

The most popular amendment was a "testing" clause that specifically asks for a cessation of cooperation if India conducts another nuclear test. Searching for a compromise, the negotiators, with a lot of help from Canada, came up with something like this: if New Delhi conducts a weapons test, it would prompt a consensus NSG decision about whether to cut off ties with India. This is a step forward from an automatic ban, because it builds in a layer of consultations, just as in the 123 agreement.

There has also been a lot of calls to periodically review India's compliance to the exemption, again something India is not particularly happy about.

The worrying part is the amendments proposed are closely aligned to the Hyde Act, parts of which India as rejected as "extraneous" and "prescriptive." But a lot of amendments closely mirrors the act, which makes it difficult for the US to reject and for India to accept.

Ultimately, of course, India will not accept anything that compromises its national interests __ so in a sense, there is a real chance that India could walk away from the deal.

The Norwegian government said in a statement, "Norway's concerns are not India specific but regarding the non-proliferation issues and the NPT regime. We fully understand India's need for energy." {India should not be taken in by such glib talk. We know 'Zangger Committee', then the 'London Group', and then the NSG were targetting India. Norway is trying to protect its commercial interests in case India decides to walk away. I do not know if Indian bureaucrats take a holistic view and inflict retribution on those countries that caused the NSG waiver to fail. I hope they do}

The New Zealand press celebrated the fact that their diplomats "played a major role inside a secretive international group to block a nuclear deal between India and the United States."

In Ireland, a foreign office spokesperson said "Consistently over the past three years since the Indo-US deal was first mooted, Ireland has been to the fore in raising questions and expressing serious concerns, particularly about its effects on the international non-proliferation regime."

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 23 Aug 2008 08:05

Pulikeshi wrote:The key is to notice that none of "yesterday's" institutions are going to disappear
and/or accommodate us with or without US help.

The US is not going to help us in any way. Its perfidious role in the NSG waiver drama is now very obvious. First, it enacted a Hyde ACt that India did not accept as binding on it. Then, it is making the NSG follow the Hyde Act through the other countries. Its game is up.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 23 Aug 2008 08:06

So what is India's trade with these group of eight countries? The big problem is anyone can whack India and get away free for there is never any pain.

SSridhar you have said it.

pradeepe · Post by **pradeepe** » 23 Aug 2008 08:11

Manny wrote:There is a time to negotiate and then there is a time to drop it.

This is a time to drop it and move on! Can't do it when the president of the US is lameduck and weak. He sure is weak when the Kimballs of this world can trip him.

But, never ever forget the players.

Manny

Absolutely. Never forget the players. States or individuals. The elephant has a long memory.

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 23 Aug 2008 08:14

Diplomatic ties with Nooseland,Austria and Ireland can be cut without any worthwhile consequenses. Before that let the pretentions play till end. Since Nooseland press is celebrating Indian must find way to punish them.

Question is can these old Insitutions survive without India past 2020. Since

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 23 Aug 2008 08:20

pradeepe wrote:
Manny wrote:There is a time to negotiate and then there is a time to drop it.

This is a time to drop it and move on! Can't do it when the president of the US is lameduck and weak. He sure is weak when the Kimballs of this world can trip him.

But, never ever forget the players.

Manny
Absolutely. Never forget the players. States or individuals. The elephant has a long memory.

Bycotting their prouducts by Indians worldwide is onething we all can do. No Nokia, No Ericcson , NO Swiss Bank A/c by Leeders, Babus and Biznesmen, No Irish Whiskey or Norwegian Woman.

John Snow · Post by **John Snow** » 23 Aug 2008 08:35

Also never forget the amount of information collected by unkil from us about our programmes!

Oops almost forgot never forget to dig for Uranium at home before we say U2 brutus!

sanjaykumar · Post by **sanjaykumar** » 23 Aug 2008 08:43

They're only showing their voters that they tried to live up to their superlative ideals, but in the end it will be 'sorry folks but we gotta get on the right side of India before it grows up and kicks our butts'.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 23 Aug 2008 08:44

This deal will come through next year. There is really no need to hurry this deal to satisfy the Bush Raj.

Sanatanan · Post by **Sanatanan** » 23 Aug 2008 08:50

Manny wrote:
RajeshA wrote:[Nuclear exporters continue to mull India trade ban by Veronika Oleksyn: Associated Press

[quote]One clause being pushed by a number of countries appears to be one that would revoke NSG privileges if India resumed nuclear weapons testing.

One delegate said that no decision was expected today. Observers have predicted it could take multiple meetings before a decision is taken.
There are 5 possibilities:

1. Either it is what it looks like. NZ, Austria, Ireland, Switzerland, Norway, Netherlands trying to push for the no-nuclear testing clause, and USA trying to find acceptable language to assuage these countries. At the end there is a common denominator.

2. USA has given these countries the go-ahead to make such demands, so that USA can multilateralize the Hyde Act based on some assurance the State Department has given to Howard Berman.

3. USA and India are playing out a script, where the negotiations extend on to Sept 2 so that these hold-outs can show for some resistance at NSG for their home audience, while at the end these countries also sign up on a language acceptable to India.

4. These countries are really out to clip Indian wings and they want to sabotage everything and have the clock run out. In the end there is no agreement. USA gives up.

5. USA forces NSG to break up on this question. All the hold-outs are thrown into the deep sea. They become Non-Proliferation Renegades and stand outside the NSG Meetings holding up posters prepared by the Green Party. The Deal goes through.[/size]

If predication are appropriate here.

I predict #4

4. These countries are really out to clip Indian wings and they want to sabotage everything and have the clock run out. In the end there is no agreement. USA gives up.

I am fine with it. I was always for this deal until now.

India should work towards minituarization or other advancement with Nukes. (I am not all that familiar with this subject). Take advantage of this half cup.
[/quote]
Another scenario as envisaged by me and posted earlier [Page 19 of this thread, 15 Aug 2008 06:55 am] is:

The Non-Proliferation Activist States do not budge. USA wrings its hands. GoI talks semantics for local consumption and signs, wherever asked to, on the dotted line. After all this (talking semantics) has been well practiced during the "hide the Hyde" act!

Having got into the quicksand pit specially dug for India by the US & Friends, GoI is now not likely to be interested (or be able) to get up and walk away in a dignified manner. As I recall, UPA spokespersons had earlier said that, the deal was already signed and hence there was no question of renegotiations. However, because GoI wants this deal at any cost, now they are likely to go to any extent to try to sugarcoat (for Indian citizens' benefit only) the unpalatable new "waiver" conditions. We may expect to see a lot of new deliberately imprecise, "dual-use" words and phrases in the next few days. After all this would not be the first instance when promises and pious statements of intent have been negated.

A clue for this likely course of action may be found in an innocuous paragraph in Siddharth Varadarajan's article "U.S. officials feel NSG decision may take two sessions" dated 21 Aug 2008.

Equipment for reprocessing plant

Indian officials say that while the country is self-sufficient in ENR technology it would be unfair to deny equipment and components for the dedicated reprocessing plant the U.S. wants India to build in order to be able to reprocess American-origin spent fuel.

I do not believe that American-origin Pu atoms would refuse to be extracted in reprocessing plants constructed with Indian-orign equipment and components; also, the reprocessed Pu is to be used in Indian-origin FBRs! Notwithstanding all the rhetoric about being able to indigenously build nuclear power plants, reprocessing plants and enrichment plants, the ground level reality seems to be that several "equipment and components" are required to be imported fast -- as fast as import of Nat U fuel is (euphemistically) stated to be needed.

I continue to be a votary for India not entering into this deal.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 23 Aug 2008 08:53

When that amount of amendments come in either of two things are happening: Us did not know the extent of feelings in the NSG or is misleading India. This is called a sucker punch. And instead of walking meekly to the opposition camp, where more concessions are extracted get on the next plane to Delhi and let them come to India. let them tell India why & how this happened.

sanjaykumar · Post by **sanjaykumar** » 23 Aug 2008 08:56

Very unlikely the US is caught unawares by domestic politics in Ireland, the US likes to think it manufactures realities and to a very large extent especially in the western world, it does.

I doubt if India will cross its own redlines for New Zealand.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 23 Aug 2008 08:57

So what are you saying?

sivab · Post by **sivab** » 23 Aug 2008 09:02

http://ia.rediff.com/news/2008/aug/23ndeal.htm

NSG meeting constructive and useful: Menon

August 23, 2008 00:43 IST

India on Friday described as "constructive and useful" the two-day meeting of the Nuclear Suppliers Group in the run-up to securing a clean exemption for conducting international nuclear commerce.

''We met a lot of individual delegates of NSC member-countries and had an opportunity to brief them on Thursday. We have been informed that the two-day meeting of NSG was constructive and useful", Foreign Secretary Shiv Shankar Menon told Indian journalists.

He said the exemption to NSG guidelines for nuclear trade would help civil nuclear cooperation and "is a necessary step for cooperation between India and the 45-nation grouping".

"We look forward to working with them (NSG)", Menon said.

sanjaykumar · Post by **sanjaykumar** » 23 Aug 2008 09:03

This may have more to do with domestic politics in these few countries wrt America than anything connected to India. But the final result will be toeing the American line.

Canadian diplomats have been known to comment in a moment of indiscretion that the Americans play unbelievable hard-ball when they want something-and this is with Canada!

sivab · Post by **sivab** » 23 Aug 2008 09:05

http://www.thaindian.com/newsportal/unc ... 87565.html

Menon heading to Washington after NSG meet

Washington, Aug 23 (IANS) India’s Foreign Secretary Shivshankar Menon headed for Washington even as the 45-member Nuclear Suppliers’ Group (NSG) failed to reach a consensus at its Vienna conclave on lifting the ban on nuclear commerce with India.Menon, who reaches here Monday, will have talks with his counterpart, US Undersecretary of State William Burns, who has taken the place of Nick Burns, Washington’s former key negotiator on the India-US nuclear deal.

Though Indian officials suggested that Menon’s one-day visit was planned, how to sell the India deal to the nuclear cartel when it meets again Sep 4-5 to decide on the India-specific waiver, will probably figure high on his agenda.

Though most members in the NSG are for lifting the ban, some are keen that a provision be included in the draft that if India conducts any more tests the commerce between the two sides will be stopped, according to reports from Vienna.

Menon himself told reporters in Vienna that no NSG member was against giving India a special exemption and the meeting saw a “narrowing of differences” over the issue.

“There has been a narrowing down of differences between the various countries. It is quite a remarkable feat that 45 different sovereign nations should decide to have one point of view over any issue,” Menon said.

Apart from getting an NSG decision acceptable to India, US officials are also concerned about how to get the necessary Congressional approval for the deal in the narrow time window left before the legislature adjourns for the year Sep 26.

The US enabling law, the Hyde Act, requires that Congress be in 30 days of continuous session to consider the deal. While Joseph R. Biden, Democratic chairman of the powerful US Senate Foreign Relations Committee, has vowed to push the India-US nuclear deal in the Congress “like the devil”, a few other lawmakers have served notice that they would oppose the deal if it was not in tune with the Hyde Act.

However, Howard L. Berman, Democratic chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, sent Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice a letter saying he found it “incomprehensible” that the administration is seeking an NSG exemption for India with “few or none of the conditions” contained in the Hyde Act.

He warned that a failure to include such conditions in the NSG agreement would doom consideration of the US-India deal in the current Congress.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 23 Aug 2008 09:07

From the KP Nayar article

Sources in Vienna said there has been a tentative agreement as today’s meeting ended that the NSG would reconvene on September 4 and 5.

But these sources said the majority view in the group was that the next meeting should be held in the third or fourth week of September to coincide with the General Conference of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) or its board of governors.

These IAEA meetings will bring to Vienna all the key players in the nuclear field from all over the world in any case. If the Group of Seven countries is determined to push the date of the next meeting to the second half of September, the US will have no choice but to agree to a date favoured by the majority of NSG members.

But such a delay would derail the Bush administration’s time table of sending the nuclear deal back to the Congress in the week of September 8 so that all the necessary legislation for operationalising the deal can be wrapped up before the Congress adjourns on September 26 for the US elections.

So that is the game plan. The US has to agree.. The US has to complete the deal by sept 26th...
So to ensure the timetable they plan to put in new conditions without due process approval of India.

Hyde like conditions are not acceptable to India.

Sanjay yes. But thats when it is their interests in line. here its India's interests. India should let them sweat it out. They will deliver if they want to..

sanjaykumar · Post by **sanjaykumar** » 23 Aug 2008 09:12

So you finally agree that this deal is in India's interest. I have maintained such and more so, that the US has entered into it with the expectation that India will accelerate its strategic stockpiling of plutonium, which conveniently is the ultimate dual use technology.

Manny · Post by **Manny** » 23 Aug 2008 09:20

I doubt if this is NZ alone doing it. NZ is a pimp of a nation. I suspect that this could be due to China/Aussi axis using the pimp to do the job (NZ is not that dependent on India).

The other theory is the new Russia/Georgia conflict. This was a known issues prior to Bush going to Beijing. He wanted China to be on the US side and made sure he went to China (that and Sr Bush insisting he goes to China). Now the Georgia/Russia thingi is in the forefront, the US doesn't want to push the "Anti China stance" too much.. which means sacrificing India/US deal.

Manny

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 23 Aug 2008 09:31

call me paranoid or fortune teller...

The China card is at play... I do not think unkil would play this trick at this point of the process and current geopolitical scenarios...

If anyone thinks Aussi's are against Uraniam Ore exports on just ideological grounds, it is sheer ignorance at best... all the western policies are driven by materialistic motivs... there are no morals or ideals.... it's just geopolitics and self interests...

As I mentioned in my earlier posts...

- Paki's are the first card (demand for equal equal deal, propaganda on six chinese reactors for pak etc)
- NPA is the second card (Under the table deals IMO, and keeping quite on the deal)
- CPI/M are third card (No internal consensus, stop going to IAEA, bringdown the govt if needed)
- NSG (use unkil's own chamchaas)

If unkil persists, I can gaurantee one or two senior EU members will opposse the deal on one or other pretext...

Sun Tzu at play...

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 23 Aug 2008 09:34

sanjaykumar wrote:So you finally agree that this deal is in India's interest. I have maintained such and more so, that the US has entered into it with the expectation that India will accelerate its strategic stockpiling of plutonium, which conveniently is the ultimate dual use technology.

I have a published opinion on India Research Foundation supporting the J18. Its the Hyde that I dont like. Once the GOI spent its political capital seeking the trust vote it has done all it should to support the deal. Its upto the US to keep their side of the bargain. And they are not. The tactic that is used is called sucker punch. Being hopeful etc as Menon is doing is useless when dealing with sucker punch. You have to let them come to you.

John Snow · Post by **John Snow** » 23 Aug 2008 09:44

A liitle cinamitic but very realistic (in the current context)

It is difficult to associate these horrors with the proud civilizations that created them: Sparta, Rome, The Knights of Europe, the Samurai... They worshipped strength, because it is strength that makes all other values possible. Nothing survives without it. Who knows what delicate wonders have died out of the world, for want of the strength to survive.

Han(villian) in Enter the Dragon

The enemy has only images and illusions behind which he hides his true motives. Destroy the image and you will break the enemy.

shaolin abbot

sanjaykumar · Post by **sanjaykumar** » 23 Aug 2008 10:02

WRT the Hyde Act

In response to the language Congress used in the Act to define U.S. policy toward India, President Bush, stated "Given the Constitution's commitment to the authority of the presidency to conduct the nation's foreign affairs, the executive branch shall construe such policy statements as advisory," going on to cite sections 103 and 104 (d) (2) of the bill. To assure Congress that its work would not be totally discarded, Bush continued by saying that the executive would give "the due weight that comity between the legislative and executive branches should require, to the extent consistent with U.S. foreign policy."[

awagaman · Post by **awagaman** » 23 Aug 2008 10:16

Too much is being spilt here on what is a relatively simple matter.

1. Unkil is going to push for amendments to the draft waiver.
2. Though he always wanted these, he would rather blame small countries in NSG for it.
3. Some in GOI will want to accommodate these demands, others, mainly in Bombay, will not.
4. Bombay will trump Delhi.

From here on, there are two scenarios.

First:

5. India will reject amendments and there will be no new text.
6. There will be no further NSG meeting
7. Two years later, NSG will unravel.

Second:

5. India will reject amendments and there will be no new text
6. US will do what is should have done these pat two years, and especially 2-3 weeks and work the airmiles with the NSG countries
7. NSG meets again to ratify the exemption more or less the way it stands.

IMHO scenario FIRST is more likely than SECOND. And from political POV, the irony is that MMS will benefit either way. In case of FIRST, he says, Singhh is KInggh, I refused to kowtow. And in SECOND, he says I got what we wanted without compromising.

IMHO the THIRD scenario that some on this board are saying --that India will ACCEPT these Hyde-like amendments has a probability of close to zero.

Pulikeshi · Post by **Pulikeshi** » 23 Aug 2008 10:23

I'd agree - We should bring out the beer & popcorn and enjoy the show!

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 23 Aug 2008 10:29

Pulikeshi wrote:I'd agree - We should bring out the beer & popcorn and enjoy the show!

India can wait out any of these organiztions .

samuel · Post by **samuel** » 23 Aug 2008 10:51

Who is representing the US at NSG and how hard are they pushing the draft that was "agreed" to? Why don't we hear of a whip the US has issued to toe the line? Irrespective of what constituency or audience these objecting countries are addressing, the lack of a visible whip from the US is telling. It would be silly to assume that the US does not wish to meet the "nonproliferation objectives" and the NSG is a great place to fortify them and support Hyde. The more work they do chaining our country down now, the less they do later. It all works out.

On the other hand, given the lame-duck nature of the American presidency, every country can have a field day, week, month, while we run around doing the job that the US does not appear to want to do. The chammachs can do this to score points in whatever games they are playing for say another month.

Then its election time. The olympics are a done and maybe China gets to take a swing at it. The Chinese have been really quiet, why? And when election rolls around, so will Markey and a bunch of democrats; posturing, because this is the season to do it and the clock ticks away.

We need to walk away now. But, my own bias is that we needed to walk away a long time back.
S