India nuclear news and discussion

Gerard · Post by **Gerard** » 08 Sep 2008 02:33

Chinese Foreign Minister Yang has brought instructions to Kolkata...

Will support govt that scraps 123

CPM general secretary Prakash Karat on Sunday set the benchmark for its backing for a new government at the Centre: The Left will only support a government that would scrap the nuclear engagement with the US

munna · Post by **munna** » 08 Sep 2008 03:03

Good post Narayanji, the fact is no information will be leaked or disclosed that is against India either intentionally or unintentionally. Coming to the your question about future course of action? Please note the reaction of the party in question, their argument has all along been that once the deal is done there is little going back. All the renegotiation stuff notwithstanding! My request was to now think about future and turn this deal into a profitable venture for us i.e Indians and India. I have not disclosed anything nor will I despite the most vitriolic of bile being poured on us poor people. But the fact is for my country even a thousand boot slaps on my head are acceptable. Keep punching guys but remember: They also serve who stand and...... And by the way if you are in any doubt please accept my greetings to you and all of us on this historic moment but please let us not drop our guard down.

Rishirishi · Post by **Rishirishi** » 08 Sep 2008 03:06

Sanjay M wrote:
kshirin wrote:China does not want a healthy India, the weaker we are, the better for them, they have been behind the recent multiple sores erupting all over India. In the end they knew no NSG country would risk its bilateral relationship with India or could question India's integrity (the Pranab Mukherjee statement brought around the pipsqueak posturers and non-believers), and they were isolated. They don't like to be isolated like that in international fora and exposed for the visceral rivalry they harbour towards us, so they have to appear civilised and bow to the consensus.

But seriously, I am delighted that we woke up the Chinese Ambassador! With China and Pak, tit for tat works.
Honestly speaking, if the positions were reversed, and we were being asked to admit China to the NSG, I would be giving a firm 'NO' regardless of what speeches and threats were uttered. The Chinese know that power comes from the barrel of a gun, and so it's totally incongruous of them to help us untie our gun-barrel, which is meant to be aimed at them.

Is there more to their decision than meets the eye, here?
Do they have any further tricks up their sleeve?

India already has sufficient reactor grade PU to make some 1000 nukes. Putting a single 220 MW reactor, to produce weapons grade PU, could produce 130 KG of that material per year. (sufficent to produce 25 nukes per year). In fact India has sufficent capability to produce weapons grade PU for 100 nukes every year. India also has all the other components to produce the H-bomb. Hence there is not contraints of nulcear components.

What India does not have is the knowhow of designing advance bombs. This is because India has conducted very few tests. The 123 agreament does not bar India from testing, but it makes it much more difficult.
This is in Chinas interest. The Chinease also understand that they can't bar India from the deal, as the other powers would not accept it. That is why they have accepted it, but do not like Indias semi-nuclear status.

I have been positive to the deal. Firstly because India already has quite advanced nukes with sufficent power (approx 150-200 kt). No one can afford to get targeted by them. But more importantly, now India can start to import PU to be used in the Thorium based reactors, with the potential to make India energy self relient.

I am no expert, but this is my understanding. Perhaps some of the gurus here can elaborate further.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 08 Sep 2008 03:08

No discussions till US Congress approves the 123 agreeement. I think a voluntary moratorium is needed. Might have to enforec it if not acceptable.

Arun_S · Post by **Arun_S** » 08 Sep 2008 03:18

narayanan wrote:Now given my humint sources' indications of who "munna" is, let me also post the following:
1. NO ONE has any right to post Classified Information on BRF owned by their own or on friendly countries. That's not because BRF is special, but because it is not. Posting Classified Info on the web is a criminal offense punishable by long prison terms. Of course if I happened on info that would hurt the TSP or other terrorists, I would post it, because I don't plan to go through Lahore. So if someone posts Classified Info from India's nuke program on BRF, then they must be either (a) criminals or (b) enemies of India.

2. If someone knows Classified Info about the Indian strategic program and "leaked" it to someone who posts conclusions based on that here, then either (a) the postor is a criminal (b)the leaker is a criminal (c) the leaker is a politically-motivated person who knows that the postor is a dummy, and is using the postor to advance a false "conclusion", (d) the leaker is anti-India and is using a very patriotic Indian postor who is also a dummy, in a false-flag disinformation operation, (e) several or all of the above. You take your pick. I don't think such cra* should be posted here because it is either illegal or false or both.

3. If someone has not a clue about any information other than what the rest of us can see on the web, but feels they have exceptional analytical skills that compel them to impress everyone with said skills, regardless of consequences, then I feel that person deserves no respect. Apparently the Idiots' Association of Pakistan complained to the Admins about my use of the term in the adjective sense to refer to certain posts, and said that they were insulted by the lowering of their H&D, so I won't use any such terms.

4. Regarding India's strategic program, and what was demonstrated in 1998, I believe that enough careful analysis was presented, that I am convinced. Further, I do not believe that drastic errors were discovered in these annalysis sometime after May 2004 to force an imperative to "test" during the tenure of a non-NDA government.

5. There was a long and intense argument about the relevance of testing megaton weapons vs. the levels already tested. Several postors including myself argued that megaton level or mostly-fusion testing is irrelevant for long-term deterrent purposes. We won that debate hands down.

I onlee find above amusing.

So when the losers now try to sneak back in after having that we hurt their tender backsides, etc. etc. and start presenting the same discredited stuff again, yes, that irritates the heck out of me,

please take it easy and desensitize the sensitive nerve.

and tells me that these postors are far from being honest or respectable. Reminds me of what I did to the pakis who tried the same on the C-SPAN forum a while back.

So all facts and argument must be set aside and now all must bow to thee the paki conquerer?

Arun_S · Post by **Arun_S** » 08 Sep 2008 03:23

ramana wrote:No discussions till US Congress approves the 123 agreeement. I think a voluntary moratorium is needed. Might have to enforec it if not acceptable.

Ooops just noticed you post, after replying to narayanan ji.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 08 Sep 2008 03:25

From Rama Narayanan e-mail

US President George W. Bush and Prime Minister Manmohan Singh welcomed the decision by the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) to lift the nuclear trade embargo on India, the White House said on Saturday.

Reproduced below are links to the following TEN important articles which give a comprehensive picture of what it is all about:

**Pariah to power, India joins the big league by Pramit Pal Chaudhuri, Hindustan Times http://www.hindustantimes.com/storypage ... trParentID

**Isn’t just about n-trade, it’s about a rising India by C Raja Mohan, The Sunday Express http://www.indianexpress.com/sunday/story/358282.html

**What waiver unlocks: N-fuel to avionics, biotech to N-reactors by Y. P. Rajesh and Shubhajit Roy, The Sunday Express http://www.indianexpress.com/sunday/story/358278.html

**NSG lifts sanctions on India: Country free to buy nuclear material from Russia, France by Siddharth Varadarajan, The Hindu http://www.hindu.com/2008/09/07/stories ... 400100.htm

**Atomic Club Votes to End Restrictions on India by Somini Sengupta and Mark Mazzetti, The New York Times http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/07/world ... ref=slogin

**Men behind waiver by Ashok Tuteja, The Tribune http://www.tribuneindia.com/2008/20080907/main4.htm

**Max Americana: US shows the way at NSG by Chidanand Rajghatta, The Times of India http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/Max_ ... 453394.cms

**International Group Backs Nuclear Accord For U.S., India by Rama Lakshmi and Glenn Kessler, Washington Post http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/co ... newsletter

**But Brajesh Mishra is happy, The Sunday Express, http://www.indianexpress.com/sunday/story/358198.html

**WHAT HAPPENS NEXT: US may change law for last-mile sprint up the Hill by Pranab Dhal Samanta, The Sunday Express http://www.indianexpress.com/sunday/story/358271.html

The last item is reproduced in full below.

Cheers,

Ram Narayanan
US-India Friendship.
http://usindiafriendship.net/

THE SUNDAY EXPRESS

WHAT HAPPENS NEXT: US may change law for last-mile sprint up the Hill

Pranab Dhal Samanta

Posted online: Sunday, September 07, 2008

Vienna, September 6:The US hardball diplomacy moves from Vienna to Washington. Faced with a September 26 deadline for the US Congress to ratify the 123 agreement and thus, seal the deal, the Bush Administration is most likely left with little choice but to introduce an India-specific Bill to amend the US Atomic Energy Act.

Reason: The Hyde Act and the US Atomic Energy Act require the agreement to sit on Capitol Hill for 30 days and then give the Congress 60 days to take an “up and down” vote (a yes-or-no vote without any amendments).

The US Congress starts its 17-day session on Monday and although sessions can be extended if House leaders want it, indications are it’s unlikely that the Congress will hold a lameduck session in November given the Presidential elections.

So, a standalone Bill — specifically for the 123 agreement — is the most plausible route to fast-forward the entire process. There’s one catch, though. For, when a Bill is moved, there may be a call for amendments to the 123 which could complicate matters given the non-proliferation lobby on the Hill, including House International Relations Committee Chairman Howard Berman, who released the communication between the State Department and the Congress a day before the NSG meet.

The Bush Administration is banking on the strong bipartisan support the nuclear initiative enjoys in the US Congress. Another argument it could use is that, technically, India can start cooperation with other NSG countries since it now has the waiver. Although sources said India would not, in the larger political interest, like the US to be kept out of high-tech trade with India — to ensure permanency of the waiver — agreements with Russia and France are ready and are likely to be signed within the next couple of months. This is where pressure will increase on the US Congress to act soon.

For the Bush Administration, the immediate step, however, is to submit seven Presidential determinations that certify completion of all pre-requisites stipulated by the Hyde Act. These include the credible separation plan, the NSG waiver, completion of all legal steps towards a safeguards agreement with IAEA, progress on discussions with IAEA on an Additional Protocol.

It’s learnt that these determinations are ready and will be submitted to the US Congress early next week along with the process of moving the Bill. Assuming these steps are completed, the two foreign relations committees in both chambers will carry out hearings. One is headed by Berman, the other by Joe Biden, a strong advocate of the deal. Once the committees clear them, they will be brought before the full Congress for a vote.

According to understanding between India and the US, New Delhi will sign the safeguards agreement only after the 123 agreement is over.

So what it means is most likely due to all those HK(Hiranaya Kashyap) clauses the Hyde wil being bypassed by amending the origianl legislation to allow the 123 to be approved by US Congress!
-----------
arun, thanks for noting so please join the maun vrat posse!

CRamS · Post by **CRamS** » 08 Sep 2008 03:32

Ramana,

Here is my fear. Knowing DDM for whom the mere mention of Aiswarya Rai's name in some US/western rag is a harbinger of India's superpowerdum, this deal will be cited ad nauseum as having elevated India to 5th heavens, and calling on India to make concessions to the TSP low lives and Harried rif rafs on Kashmir. I would hate to see a celebratory tone bordering on delusion even before any benefits of the deal accrue.

Gerard · Post by **Gerard** » 08 Sep 2008 03:57

Canberra faces contradiction as it moves closer to deal with New Delhi

sanjaykumar · Post by **sanjaykumar** » 08 Sep 2008 03:59

It’s not entirely a coincidence that it was Manmohan Singh who, in the early 1990s, ended India’s international economic isolation and it’s Manmohan Singh who has now reconfigured India’s geopolictical standing. Thanks to the economic reforms which rebuilt India’s economic sinews, India has now successfully repositioned itself in the global order.

From Rajamohan's article.

Sept 6 2008, when the ghosts of 1980s Panjab are laid to rest.

SureshP · Post by **SureshP** » 08 Sep 2008 04:10

Poor Khalid

Has to find an Indian mouthpiece to express the feeling of opening bowels and the heartburn.

US-India nuclear deal called “foolish and risky”

<>* Kamdar states deal will make every country sell N-technology to New Delhi

By Khalid Hasan

WASHINGTON: The US-India Civil Nuclear Agreement approved by the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) in Vienna is a “foolish and risky deal” that will make every country free to sell nuclear technology to India while “asking virtually nothing from India in return”, in the process undermining the very international system that India so ardently seeks to join, according to a critical assessment published here on Sunday.
Mira Kamdar, a fellow at Asia Society, New York, writes in the Washington Post that while India needs energy, “this foolish, risky deal is not the way to get any of these things. India’s democracy has already paid a crippling price, and now the planet may too”. The Indo-US nuclear co-operation agreement was approved by the NSG at its meeting in Vienna this weekend. However, it still has to find congressional approval, an exercise that it may not be possible to complete during the short time left to do that. The deal, Kamdar argues, risks triggering a new arms race in Asia. If it passes, a “miffed and unstable Pakistan will seek nuclear parity with India, and China will fume at a transparent US ploy to balance Beijing’s rise by building up India as a counterweight next door”. The pact will gut global efforts to contain the spread of nuclear materials and encourage other countries to flout the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) that India is now being rewarded for failing to sign.
Kamdar believes that the deal will divert billions of dollars away from India’s real development needs in sustainable agriculture, education, health care, housing, sanitation and roads. It will also distract India from developing clean energy sources, such as wind and solar power, and from reducing emissions from its many coal plants. Instead, the pact will focus the nation’s efforts on an energy source that will, under the rosiest of projections, contribute a mere 8 percent of India’s total energy needs — and that will not happened until 2030. The deal will generate billions of dollars in lucrative contracts for major US and Indian companies as well as help resuscitate the moribund US nuclear power industry. France and Russia, both of which support the deal, will reap huge profits in India. According to one estimate, the deal will generate more than $100 billion in business over the next 20 years, as well as a large number of jobs in India and the United States..
Kamdar writes that India will get unfettered access to nuclear fuel and technology without doing anything in return. It will not have to open all its reactors to inspection by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), which means that both the new technologies India will now be able to acquire and the fuel it now has on hand can be ploughed into its nuclear weapons programme. “More ominously, the deal will tell other would-be nuclear powers — and nuclear rogues — that the old barriers to non-proliferation need not be taken seriously. They certainly have not been taken seriously by the US. Other, less high-minded powers will surely follow the shortsighted example being set by Delhi and Washington. Russia has emphatically signalled that it has had enough of global norms that it considers unfair and is keen to return to old-fashioned realpolitik. The prospect of meaningful steps toward disarmament by the existing nuclear powers is slim and dwindling.” The deal will not magically transform India into China’s economic or military equal. Even if India managed to match China reactor for reactor and missile for missile, it could do so only at the expense of precisely the investments in human and physical infrastructure that could make India into a truly great power, prosperous and secure. This is the real tragedy of the US-India nuclear deal, she concludes. .

http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.as ... 008_pg7_58

Gerard · Post by **Gerard** » 08 Sep 2008 04:22

A breakthrough, says Kakodkar

Anil Kakodkar has described the Nuclear Suppliers Group’s (NSG) waiver to India as “an acceptable arrangement which meets our requirements.”

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 08 Sep 2008 04:31

India miffed at China's dubious role at Vienna
Well our B.Raman was so concerned about H&D of China just before the Olympics. Now I wonder how he is dealing with China's play these days.

Paul · Post by **Paul** » 08 Sep 2008 04:39

B Raman betrays shades of WKK thinking in his writings.

He does bring a lot to the table in the analysis of Taliban, PRC concerns in Xinjiang and Tibet etc. his analysis is good, but not much orginality in his writings. His articles are like narratives. I would not agree with his conclusions.

G Subramaniam · Post by **G Subramaniam** » 08 Sep 2008 05:21

Mira Kamdar, a fellow at Asia Society, New York, writes in the Washington Post that while India needs energy,
--

Mira Kamdar has called her own father a fascist, for being permanently anti-muslim
after he got assaulted by a muslim mob with cycle chains and permanently scarred in a muslim riot in India

--

She is associated with FOIL, etc

sivab · Post by **sivab** » 08 Sep 2008 05:23

Here is a paper on latest supercomputer from BARC. Anupam-Ajeya has ~9 Teraflops sustained performance. That puts it at a little below top 400 supercomputers of world. For comparison, US has 1 petaflop computer (rank 1), while Tata Eka has 134 teraflop sustained performance (rank 8 ). Still 9 tera flops is excellent.

http://www.barc.ernet.in/publications/n ... 080401.pdf

Here is a paper that lays out how they plan to use this computing power (and future ones) over next 10 years to develop EOS models for strategic purposes and validate it through experiments.

http://www.barc.ernet.in/publications/n ... 0710-1.pdf

Here is a paper on latest indigeneous LASER development capability.

http://www.barc.ernet.in/publications/n ... 080201.pdf

G Subramaniam · Post by **G Subramaniam** » 08 Sep 2008 05:24

Paul wrote:B Raman betrays shades of WKK thinking in his writings.

He does being a lot to the table in the analysis of Taliban, PRC concerns in Xinjiang and Tibet etc. his analysis is good, but I would agree with his conclusions.

He is somewhat 'secular', in that he rationalises IM terrorism as due to IM 'anger' due to Ayodhya , post-Godhra etc ( while conveniently forgetting to mention hindu 'anger' at several thousand islamic atrocities ), but he is no WKK

Gerard · Post by **Gerard** » 08 Sep 2008 05:25

NSG in bag, India seeks uranium from Australia

Paul · Post by **Paul** » 08 Sep 2008 05:26

GS, that is why I said "shades of WKK"

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 08 Sep 2008 05:47

Hope this has not been posted (her title is very interesting!!):

Risking Armageddon for Cold, Hard Cash

By Mira Kamdar
Sunday, September 7, 2008; B03

While everyone has been abuzz about Georgia, the Beijing Olympics and Sarah Palin, perhaps the most important development in the world has been unfolding with almost no attention. India and the United States, along with deep-pocketed corporations, have been steadily pushing along a lucrative and dangerous new nuclear pact, the U.S.-India Civil Nuclear Agreement. Both governments have been working at a fever pitch to get the pact approved by the 45-country Nuclear Suppliers Group, which governs the world's trade in nuclear materials, and before Congress for a final vote before it adjourns this month.

Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh says the deal will let his country, which refuses to sign either the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) or the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty, take "its rightful place among the comity of nations." I entirely understand why today's democratic, globalized and modernizing India wants recognition and respect, and I agree that it needs more energy. But this foolish, risky deal is not the way to get any of these things. India's democracy has already paid a crippling price, and now the planet may too.

The historic deal will allow U.S. nuclear companies to again do business in India, something that has been barred since 1974, when New Delhi tested its first atomic bomb. (India tested nuclear bombs again in 1998, spurring Pakistan to follow suit with its own tests days later.) The pact will also lift restrictions on other countries' sales of nuclear technology and fuel to India, while asking virtually nothing from India in return. All of that will undermine the very international system that India so ardently seeks to join.

The deal risks triggering a new arms race in Asia: If it passes, a miffed and unstable Pakistan will seek nuclear parity with India, and China will fume at a transparent U.S. ploy to balance Beijing's rise by building up India as a counterweight next door. The pact will gut global efforts to contain the spread of nuclear materials and encourage other countries to flout the NPT that India is now being rewarded for failing to sign. The U.S.-India deal will divert billions of dollars away from India's real development needs in sustainable agriculture, education, health care, housing, sanitation and roads. It will also distract India from developing clean energy sources, such as wind and solar power, and from reducing emissions from its many coal plants. Instead, the pact will focus the nation's efforts on an energy source that will, under the rosiest of projections, contribute a mere 8 percent of India's total energy needs -- and won't even do that until 2030.

So what will the deal accomplish? It will generate billions of dollars in lucrative contracts for the corporate members of the U.S.-India Business Council and the Confederation of Indian Industry. The Bush administration hopes that it will help resuscitate the moribund U.S. nuclear power industry and expand the use of this "non-polluting" source of energy, one of the pillars of the Bush team's energy policy. The deal will let the real leaders of the global nuclear-power business -- France and Russia, both of which eagerly support the deal -- reap huge profits in India. And the pact will provide spectacularly profitable opportunities to India's leading corporations, which are slavering to get their hands on a share of the booty. How much booty? This newspaper estimates more than $100 billion in business over the next 20 years, as well as perhaps tens of thousands of jobs in India and the United States.

This is what the U.S.-India nuclear deal is really all about. This is what the nonproliferation regime that has kept the world safe from nuclear Armageddon for decades is being risked for: cash.

Industry groups have lobbied tirelessly on Capitol Hill to bring U.S. lawmakers on board. The U.S.-India Business Council, the leading advocacy group for major U.S. firms investing in India, has hired the best professionals in the game, including the lawyer-lobbyist firm Patton Boggs LLP, which has been working on the deal for the past two years. The Indian government turned to Barbour, Griffith and Rogers LLC, whose international team was conveniently headed until last month by Robert D. Blackwill, Bush's first ambassador to India and one of the prime forces behind the pact.

The lobbyists have largely succeeded in casting the deal as a referendum on India itself, on the strength of Indian democracy and on the depth of U.S. friendship with India. Opponents of the deal (or even those who dare question some of its provisions) have been smeared as "nonproliferation ayatollahs" and "enemies of India," insinuating that their real goal is to keep India down. This is pure spin, and it is insulting to the individuals, governments and international bodies dedicated to keeping the world safe from the ultimate weapon of mass destruction.

The version of the deal the Bush administration put before the Nuclear Suppliers Group went further than ever before, giving India a "clean" waiver of the usual responsibilities of a nuclear power. In other words, India gets unfettered access to nuclear fuel and technology, and it doesn't have to do anything in return. It doesn't have to do what Iraq did last month and sign the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty, which has now been signed by 179 nations. It doesn't have to open all its reactors to inspection by the International Atomic Energy Agency, meaning that both the new technologies India will now be able to acquire and the fuel it now has on hand can be plowed into its nuclear weapons program.

Scandalously, the Bush administration asked the Nuclear Suppliers Group to bless a proposal that excludes the modest provisions that Congress imposed on the deal in 2006. Why? Because the White House knows that anything short of the current "something-for-nothing" version risks finishing off the Indian government, which has already been weakened by its support for a pact that faces fierce resistance back home.

Singh and his ruling Congress party pulled out all the stops to get a skeptical parliament to approve the deal. His left-wing coalition partners abandoned ship in a huff of anti-Americanism. With the survival of the Singh government at stake, no effort was spared to woo lawmakers. Lucrative ministerships and airport-naming rights were dangled before lawmakers. A.B. Bardhan, the head of India's Communist Party, claimed in July that the going rate was more than $5.5 million for a vote in favor of the deal, and Kuldeep Bishnoi, a young MP from Haryana state, boasted of being offered a record-breaking 1 billion rupees -- about $22.5 million. The Times of London reported that the Singh government was even planning to let some friendly parliamentarians out of jail for the vote. (Fully a quarter of India's legislators are facing criminal charges, according to the BBC.)

These corrosive effects on India's democracy will be felt for years to come. India's complicated coalition politics will become even more chaotic, with political leaders ready to switch alliances at the drop of a pin -- for the right price. The big losers will be the people of India, especially the long-suffering poor, as India's already dismal efforts to fight poverty sink even deeper into graft and corruption.

More ominously, the deal will tell other would-be nuclear powers -- and nuclear rogues -- that the old barriers to nonproliferation need not be taken seriously. They certainly have not been taken seriously by the United States. Other, less high-minded powers will surely follow the short-sighted example being set by Delhi and Washington. Vladimir Putin's Russia has emphatically signaled that it has had enough of global norms that it considers unfair and is keen to return to old-fashioned realpolitik. The prospect of meaningful steps toward disarmament by the existing nuclear powers is slim and dwindling.

More ominously, Pakistan is outraged that India has been offered a deal that it will not get. India's nemesis and neighbor is undergoing an alarming transition. The United States had relied on Gen. Pervez Musharraf's dictatorship to keep the Pakistani nuclear arsenal in check, but Pakistan is now run by a weak, squabbling civilian government ill-equipped to defeat the Islamist terrorist groups only too eager to get their hands on a loose Pakistani nuke.

Meanwhile, China cannot help noticing that the United States has engaged in bizarre doublespeak over what it expects of rising Asian powers. The Bush administration has told China that it must behave as a "responsible stakeholder" in the international system -- meaning that China should expect no exceptions to global rules as it struggles to meet the challenges posed by its booming economy. That, of course, is the precise context in which the Bush administration has lobbied for the nuclear deal with India. The White House has called upon China "to embrace energy security and nonproliferation principles that are in accordance with the international norms," even as it pleads to exempt India from these very norms.

In any case, the nuclear deal will not magically transform India into China's economic or military equal. A shocking 42 percent of Indians live below the World Bank's new poverty threshold of $1.25 per day. Even if India managed to match China reactor for reactor and missile for missile -- a long shot at best -- Delhi could do so only at the expense of precisely the investments in human and physical infrastructure that could make India into a truly great power, prosperous and secure. This is the real tragedy of the U.S.-India nuclear deal. It's not too late to stop it.

miraukamdar@gmail.com

Mira Kamdar is a Bernard Schwartz fellow at the Asia Society and the author of "Planet India: The Turbulent Rise of the Largest Democracy and the Future of Our World."

samuel · Post by **samuel** » 08 Sep 2008 05:52

Is this thread running or hibernating? (both seem to be false).

Arun_S · Post by **Arun_S** » 08 Sep 2008 06:02

Gerard wrote:A breakthrough, says Kakodkar
Anil Kakodkar has described the Nuclear Suppliers Group’s (NSG) waiver to India as “an acceptable arrangement which meets our requirements.”

Surely a breakthrough and rejoiceful day. But let us not lower out guard and sleep under this tree at mid point. There are miles to go before India pulls up and is in synch with a reality commensurate with its weight.

G Subramaniam · Post by **G Subramaniam** » 08 Sep 2008 06:03

Mira Kamdar dissing her father in public

http://www.worldpolicy.org/journal/arti ... amdar.html

My immigrant Gujarati father is both a liberal Democrat and a supporter of Hindu fascism.
--
So it has been a great and sad shock to me to realize that my father, who loved Martin Luther King, hates Muslims. He hates them blindly, viscerally, categorically. In most other respects, my father is a rational man: gifted in mathematics, and a highly trained aeronautical engineer who worked, among other things, on the Apollo missions. Yet, in any discussion where Muslims, the Middle East, Bosnia (not to mention Pakistan) comes up, he is wont to fly into an apoplectic rage, turn red in the face, shout until spit begins to pool at the sides of his mouth, shake his fists. The culmination of these fits is always the same. He bends over, seizes the cuff of the right leg of his pants, and pulls it up to show off a series of diagonal dents marching up his shin, scars from a back-alley encounter decades ago with a gang of bicycle-chain-wielding Muslim youths. "This is what Muslims did to me! This is what Muslims do!

--

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 08 Sep 2008 06:04

After i imposed the moratorium till the US congress passes the 123, I guess its removed of contentions issues and to some folks might appear comatose. Its very much alive. Just see sivab's post.

sivab, Thanks for those papers and doing a good job as usual.
ramana

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 08 Sep 2008 06:33

India Inc. expects 120k Crore Business deals

Arun_S · Post by **Arun_S** » 08 Sep 2008 06:49

sivab wrote:Here is a paper on latest supercomputer from BARC. Anupam-Ajeya has ~9 Teraflops sustained performance. That puts it at a little below top 400 supercomputers of world. For comparison, US has 1 petaflop computer (rank 1), while Tata Eka has 134 teraflop sustained performance (rank 8 ). Still 9 tera flops is excellent.

http://www.barc.ernet.in/publications/n ... 080401.pdf

Here is a paper that lays out how they plan to use this computing power (and future ones) over next 10 years to develop EOS models for strategic purposes and validate it through experiments.

http://www.barc.ernet.in/publications/n ... 0710-1.pdf

Here is a paper on latest indigeneous LASER development capability.

http://www.barc.ernet.in/publications/n ... 080201.pdf

Excellent reading material.
1) Notice the Laser article mentions realized Laser intensity >10^18W/cm^2 (the cut-in threshold necessary for relevant weapons effects)
2) 9 TFlop is very decent for the job.

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 08 Sep 2008 06:56

Ok. Here is the lungi dance we all wanted.

[youtube]<object width="425" height="344"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/UfCtiKYbDVk&hl ... ram><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/UfCtiKYbDVk&hl=en&fs=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowfullscreen="true" width="425" height="344"></embed></object>[/youtube]

Suppiah · Post by **Suppiah** » 08 Sep 2008 06:56

Question to gurus on the Enrichment technology issue - are we proposing to buy raw ore (or unenriched) from OZ/Canada and refine it ourselves, will they allow such a thing given all the statistical manipulation possibilities? Dont we have this technology which TSP/Iran seems to possess? Isnt it better to use our own machines so we can have the yield we choose to have?! Why this big fuss?

sanjaykumar · Post by **sanjaykumar** » 08 Sep 2008 07:02

http://www.barc.ernet.in/publications/n ... 0710-1.pdf

Our goal, over the next ten years, is the development of
predictive, validated simulation capability in these areas
that is superior to that available anywhere in the world.

Dr S. Chaturvedi obtained his B.Tech. in Chemical Engineering from IIT Delhi in
1985 and his Ph.D. in Chemical Engineering from Princeton University in 1989. He
is currently part of the Beam Technology Development Group at BARC. His research
interests include computer simulations of shock waves, pulsed electromagnetics,
compact pulsed-power sources, hypervelocity impact and fracture, high strain-rate
deformation, chemically reactive flows, plasma stealth systems and Magnetized
Target Fusion

sraj · Post by **sraj** » 08 Sep 2008 07:13

Arun_S wrote:
Gerard wrote:A breakthrough, says Kakodkar
Surely a breakthrough and rejoiceful day. But let us not lower out guard and sleep under this tree at mid point. There are miles to go before India pulls up and is in synch with a reality commensurate with its weight.

Amen. Anil Kakodkar sums it up best: “an acceptable arrangement which meets our requirements.” It is nothing more and nothing less than that.

The IAEA and NSG pieces of this deal partially recover the ground lost in the period between J18 and Hyde/123. Lowering our guard at this stage could result in ground being lost again at the next stage.

Hopefully POTUS and COTUS realize that a significant spectrum of Indian political opinion would be quite happy if the US shot itself in the foot by adding unpalatable conditions during the 123 approval process. It seems more and more likely that this will not be an "up or down" vote. As it is, the backing away from President Bush's March 2006 fuel supply assurances revealed by the "secret" letter will need to be thrashed out before any US-India 123 can enter into force.

enqyoob · Post by **enqyoob** » 08 Sep 2008 07:34

sraj:

Expecting the US to guarantee fuel supply after a "test" that they consider provocative, is like expecting an insurance company to cover theft losses because one steals from one's own house On top of that, people here expect the US to help India by asking other people to supply fuel as well, in the event of a test that they see as unnecessary provocation.

Ain't gonna happen no matter WHO negotiates, and harping on such things just plays into the hands of the enemies of India. I am truly amazed that there are people who post on the internet who refuse to see that, and think others won't

at such expectations. Most of us learn the hard way by age 6 or so to not demand such things, but maybe others like u are lucky and get everything you demand. Good 4 u.

That whole "letter" is a red herring as pointed out b4.

But the letter also makes clear that as long as the US is able to agree with India on the reasoning for any action, the US will try hard not to take precipitous action. That level of statement of trust in an internal communication is truly astonishing. It is fundamentally different from the sneering, hostile tone of the Nixon, Carter, Reagan, Bush 1 and even the early Clinton administrations. Except for UQ, I can't imagine US diplomats/ WHOTUS people writing in such terms about any foreign country. The standard attitude is, understandably, of strong American nationalism.

It is a testament to the insincerity and immaturity of the Indian press and much of the Opposition that they ignored that and focused on non-issues.

Bottom line is that the world accepts, however grudgingly, that India is mature enough not to abuse stuff intended for civilian power generation, to develop and burst weapons of mass destruction. Period.

Gerard · Post by **Gerard** » 08 Sep 2008 07:39

Dont we have this technology which TSP/Iran seems to possess?

Neither Iran nor Pakistan can enrich on a commercial scale.

India doesn't either. The Indian enrichment plants are busy making the fuel for the ATV reactors. There is no additional capacity at present. There was never the need for commercial scale plants since India had just two reactors that used LEU.

With the LWR reactors now being planned and India free to import yellowcake, the DAE may invest in commercial scale facilities. Note however that current Massa or Ivan or Urenco's centrifuges have much higher SWUs than swadeshi ones.

achy · Post by **achy** » 08 Sep 2008 07:44

narayanan wrote:1. NO ONE has any right to post Classified Information on BRF owned by their own or on friendly countries. That's not because BRF is special, but because it is not. Posting Classified Info on the web is a criminal offense punishable by long prison terms. Of course if I happened on info that would hurt the TSP or other terrorists, I would post it, because I don't plan to go through Lahore. So if someone posts Classified Info from India's nuke program on BRF, then they must be either (a) criminals or (b) enemies of India.

There is also a third possibility:
(c) a whistle blower

Someone who breaks a cozy arrangement of powers that be.

sraj · Post by **sraj** » 08 Sep 2008 07:50

Thirty words that saved the day Siddharth Varadarajan's blow-by-blow account -- worth reading in full.

At Vienna, the fate of the entire waiver for India from the export rules of the Nuclear Suppliers Group revolved around the use of some thirty odd words. That, plus some late-hour pinch hitting by the United States — which knew full well the disastrous consequences of failure — finally brought the NSG around to its momentous decision Saturday lifting a 16-year-old ban on nuclear sales to India.

Barely six days earlier, a small band of Indian officials in Delhi had withstood “the heat of a pressure cooker” to ensure the second version of the draft waiver had none of the killer amendments the U.S. was insisting on following the debacle of the first NSG meeting on August 21 and 22.

The US tried its best to use the 6-pack to achieve its own objectives, but was largely unsuccessful.

“If this gets out of hand, our only option will be to do a ‘Kamal Nath’,” a senior Indian official told The Hindu, making a reference to the Indian commerce Minister’s dramatic rejection of American proposals at the World Trade Organisation meeting in Geneva in July.

Good for them! We all need to believe - until proven wrong in specific instances - that our leadership (across the spectrum, including Karat & Co.) bats for the nation; there may be genuine differences on tactics, relative importance of competing goals, timelines, etc.

September 4 began on a sour note for the Indians as the shockwaves from the ‘Berman bombshell,’ which had exploded in Washington and Delhi two days, made their way to Vienna. Several countries demanding strict conditions in the draft waiver latched on to the State Department’s answers to the questions posed by the House Foreign Relations Committee on the parameters of America’s own policy on nuclear cooperation with India.

“Why should the NSG settle for anything else?” was the question several countries, including New Zealand and Ireland, posed when the plenary got under way that morning.

The statement itself was used by India to advance a number of other goals, officials said, apart from reiterating the moratorium on testing. Thus, a major reference was made to India’s working paper on nuclear disarmament at the U.N. which calls, inter alia, for conventions banning the production, stockpiling and use of nuclear weapons and their timebound, non-discriminatory and verifiable elimination as well.

And in the sphere of nuclear energy, it said India was interested in “participating as a supplier nation, particularly for thorium-based fuel and in the establishment of international fuel banks, which also benefit India.” Giving a sense of India’s thinking on the usefulness of this approach, an official said, “Tomorrow if some NSG member questions our adherence to the commitments referred to in the waiver, we can just as easily turn around and ask why they are not supporting our move at the U.N. for the timebound elimination of nuclear weapons.”

Pranab Mukherjee's statement brought back "verifiable and non-discriminatory" into the FMCT question. This is a big improvement over J18.

After spending the better part of two weeks feeling frustrated and even angered by the contradictory manner in which the U.S. was handling the NSG issue, the Indians were finally able to see, in the game’s closing hours, the full weight of the American diplomatic machine swinging into action.
.................
But India’s sense of awe at Washingon’s midnight diplomacy comes tinged with the recognition that the same effective machine could just as easily be deployed again to get the waiver revoked should political circumstances change.

sivab · Post by **sivab** » 08 Sep 2008 07:51

http://www.dnaindia.com/report.asp?news ... 6&pageid=2

The most potent argument the government is likely to put forward is that India no longer needs to test a device and its nuclear arsenal is complete. This is supported by many experts, including former president APJ Abdul Kalam and former national security adviser Brajesh Mishra.

But Kalam, in an interview to a television channel, also pointed out that in the case of supreme national interest every country had the right to do what was best and face the consequences.

Mishra had also said that when the Vajpayee government decided on a unilateral moratorium on testing, it did so not as a whim but after much thought and discussions with the scientific community and strategic experts. His take is that India does not need another test, unless the security environment in the neighbourhood changes.

pradeepe · Post by **pradeepe** » 08 Sep 2008 07:53

Gerard wrote:Chinese Foreign Minister Yang has brought instructions to Kolkata...

Will support govt that scraps 123
CPM general secretary Prakash Karat on Sunday set the benchmark for its backing for a new government at the Centre: The Left will only support a government that would scrap the nuclear engagement with the US

Phew! Thanks goodness for that. For a moment I was afraid Karat would put conditions like-

No going Pu everyay, holding for a week, is standald plactice in the leeducation camps

--

So is this the end of Karat?

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 08 Sep 2008 07:54

sanjaykumar, Sandy Gordon a Aussie India watcher says in his book " India a Rising power " that India is the only country inthe world that has a one to one mapping of the US critical technologies resarch. most countries have at most a few of them but India has the highest match.

Just a data point for folks.

pradeepe · Post by **pradeepe** » 08 Sep 2008 08:07

9 Tera flops of computing power is enough for the computations? I was expecting something much higher. Just a comment on the computing power though, nothing else.

Just FYI, achieving 1 Tera Flop on a single node is now possible. Quite a few graphics processors should now be able to break this barrier. It used to be the holy grail a few years ago. IIRC, the latest crossfire and radeon series frpm ATI and Nvidia should have ratings above 1 TF. Scaling upto 9-10 TF should not be much of a challenge with the right equipment and knowhow.

So in this context, what it means is that computing power is no longer the barrier. For a whole bunch of people.

G Subramaniam · Post by **G Subramaniam** » 08 Sep 2008 08:11

ramana wrote:sanjaykumar, Sandy Gordon a Aussie India watcher says in his book " India a Rising power " that India is the only country inthe world that has a one to one mapping of the US critical technologies resarch. most countries have at most a few of them but India has the highest match.

Just a data point for folks.

I cant find it on Amazon
Can you print the correct title

sraj · Post by **sraj** » 08 Sep 2008 08:16

narayanan wrote: On top of that, people here expect the US to help India by asking other people to supply fuel as well, in the event of a test that they see as unnecessary provocation.

It is GoI that has negotiated these explicit expectations with the Bush Admn and repeated them ad infinitum inside and outside Parliament to anyone who is willing to listen, not "people here". Neither the March 2006 Bush-MMS statement nor the 123 agreement qualifies the fuel supply assurances in any manner.

oh, btw, your post on page 5 of this thread says:

Also, I note that 3c only says:

Participating government are also INVITED to exchange information including their own bilateral agreements with India

Here is 3c of the NSG waiver:

c. At each Plenary, Participating Governments shall notify each other of approved transfers to India of Annex A and B items listed in INFCIRC/254/Part 1, as revised. Participating Governments are also INVITED to exchange information including their own bilateral agreements with India.