Pakiban- Origins, Composition, Tactics and Leadership

gandharva · Post by **gandharva** » 10 Oct 2008 05:24

Taliban said to have agreed to sever ties with Al Qaeda

WASHINGTON: The Taliban have agreed to sever ties with Al Qaeda in talks backed by the United Kingdom and hosted by Saudi Arabia, according to a commentary released here on Thursday.

Stratfor, the news intelligence service, reports that the assurance from the Taliban benefits Saudi Arabia, since it has a key interest in bringing an end to the Osama Bin Laden chapter. The Saudis could also use an Afghan state with a major Taliban presence to counter the rise of Iran. The talks, hosted by Saudi King Abdullah himself, were held from September 24 to 27 in Mecca and involved 11 Taliban delegates, two Afghan government officials, a representative of Gulbuddin Hekmatyar and three others. Taliban leader Mullah Muhammad Omar has made it clear that he is no longer allied with Al Qaeda.

According to Stratfor, Mullah Omar likely is in the Pashtun corridor of Balochistan province and Osama Bin Laden and Ayman Al-Zawahiri likely are in the Dir/Malakand region. The Afghan Taliban movement has splintered into three groups: Taliban forces linked to Omar but based in Afghanistan and engaged in the fighting; Taliban elements allied with Pakistan, and Taliban fighters connected to Al Qaeda. The analysis predicts that ultimately there will be a negotiated settlement with a new leadership that will retain its ideology but within the confines of the Afghan nation-state and will abandon not just Al Qaeda but also its transnational objectives of a supranational caliphate. The Taliban leadership knows it paid a heavy price for its unwillingness to part ways with Al Qaeda. The Taliban leaders have also noted that Al Qaeda has lost appeal among the locals and realise that if they do not change, they could be sidelined by more pragmatic elements.

Riyadh’s ability to significantly neutralise jihadists at home has given the Saudis great influence over the Taliban’s thinking. The Saudis have an interest in laying Bin Laden and the core Al Qaeda group to rest. Also, Pakistan, which used to work in tandem with the Saudis on the Taliban issue, is in disarray. With Islamabad fighting its own Taliban insurgency, the Saudis have taken the lead in Afghanistan. It is also quite likely that the Pakistanis need the Saudis to use not only their financial clout but also their political clout with Washington as relations between Islamabad and Washington deteriorate. Facilitating a new power-sharing arrangement in which the Taliban return to power in significant ways could serve as a major check on growing Iranian regional influence. Saudi Arabia already has Pakistan as a regional ally and has used it to block Iran from expanding its influence eastward. With the return of the Taliban to power in Kabul, Riyadh hopes to reverse the inroads Tehran has made there during the last seven years. khalid hasan

http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.as ... 008_pg7_39

Paul · Post by **Paul** » 12 Oct 2008 20:37

I think the Durrani and ther subtribes are the Sarkari Pakhtuns.

Sarkari does not have to mean pro pakistani. - it means all pakhtuns in supporting pakistan and even the karzai regime. IOW - unkil

harik · Post by **harik** » 12 Oct 2008 22:43

gandharva wrote:Taliban said to have agreed to sever ties with Al Qaeda

WASHINGTON: The Taliban have agreed to sever ties with Al Qaeda in talks backed by the United Kingdom and hosted by Saudi Arabia, according to a commentary released here on Thursday.

Stratfor, the news intelligence service, reports that the assurance from the Taliban benefits Saudi Arabia, since it has a key interest in bringing an end to the Osama Bin Laden chapter. The Saudis could also use an Afghan state with a major Taliban presence to counter the rise of Iran. The talks, hosted by Saudi King Abdullah himself, were held from September 24 to 27 in Mecca and involved 11 Taliban delegates, two Afghan government officials, a representative of Gulbuddin Hekmatyar and three others. Taliban leader Mullah Muhammad Omar has made it clear that he is no longer allied with Al Qaeda.

According to Stratfor, Mullah Omar likely is in the Pashtun corridor of Balochistan province and Osama Bin Laden and Ayman Al-Zawahiri likely are in the Dir/Malakand region. The Afghan Taliban movement has splintered into three groups: Taliban forces linked to Omar but based in Afghanistan and engaged in the fighting; Taliban elements allied with Pakistan, and Taliban fighters connected to Al Qaeda. The analysis predicts that ultimately there will be a negotiated settlement with a new leadership that will retain its ideology but within the confines of the Afghan nation-state and will abandon not just Al Qaeda but also its transnational objectives of a supranational caliphate. The Taliban leadership knows it paid a heavy price for its unwillingness to part ways with Al Qaeda. The Taliban leaders have also noted that Al Qaeda has lost appeal among the locals and realise that if they do not change, they could be sidelined by more pragmatic elements.

Riyadh’s ability to significantly neutralise jihadists at home has given the Saudis great influence over the Taliban’s thinking. The Saudis have an interest in laying Bin Laden and the core Al Qaeda group to rest. Also, Pakistan, which used to work in tandem with the Saudis on the Taliban issue, is in disarray. With Islamabad fighting its own Taliban insurgency, the Saudis have taken the lead in Afghanistan. It is also quite likely that the Pakistanis need the Saudis to use not only their financial clout but also their political clout with Washington as relations between Islamabad and Washington deteriorate. Facilitating a new power-sharing arrangement in which the Taliban return to power in significant ways could serve as a major check on growing Iranian regional influence. Saudi Arabia already has Pakistan as a regional ally and has used it to block Iran from expanding its influence eastward. With the return of the Taliban to power in Kabul, Riyadh hopes to reverse the inroads Tehran has made there during the last seven years. khalid hasan

http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.as ... 008_pg7_39

Taliban leader Mullah Muhammad Omar has made it clear that he is no longer allied with Al Qaeda.

Why is this not in humour thread.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 12 Oct 2008 23:02

You can post it there if you please and stop posting non sequitors.

malushahi · Post by **malushahi** » 13 Oct 2008 11:10

x-posting from "Siachen News & Discussion"

Raja Bose wrote:crafty bedous have their fingers in many amirkhan pies...not just oil. anyhow OT post so I will not say anymore!

It is funny how janta-janardan believes that rag-heads own all that glitters in the west. A flavor for the current plight (not to mention that they have next door neighbors watching over their shoulders).

http://www.vanityfair.com/online/newest ... talal.html

Raja Bose · Post by **Raja Bose** » 14 Oct 2008 08:57

malushahi wrote:x-posting from "Siachen News & Discussion"

Raja Bose wrote:crafty bedous have their fingers in many amirkhan pies...not just oil. anyhow OT post so I will not say anymore!
It is funny how janta-janardan believes that rag-heads own all that glitters in the west. A flavor for the current plight (not to mention that they have next door neighbors watching over their shoulders).

http://www.vanityfair.com/online/newest ... talal.html

These losses are not that great for al-Talal & co. He is definitely the most visible of the bedous but they got quite a few more 'silent' type investors. They have deep pockets and have been sending their 'sons' to top US/UK schools for a while now so they understand the Amirkhan cycle of ups and downs.

Paul · Post by **Paul** » 14 Oct 2008 09:03

Second Editorial: The Taliban war in Karachi

As student wings of political parties kill each other in Quaidabad, and Nazimabad, Karachi gradually becomes the theatre of a war between religious and secularist forces; the leader of Mutahidda Qaumi Movement (MQM), Mr Altaf Hussain, claimed on Sunday that “more than 400,000 Afghan nationals had arrived in the city, fully equipped with latest automatic weapons”. He said that MQM workers would defend the citizens of Karachi against the “400,000 Afghans and Taliban in accordance with the United Nations Charter and the Sharia”.

The MQM has been warning about the “invasion” of the Taliban. The Sindh government has not fully agreed with this assessment despite the fact that the Tehreek-e Taliban Pakistan (TTP) has clearly announced its intent to send its suicide-bombers to Punjab and Karachi. Punjab has received its share of terrorism following the TTP warning and is now subject to copycat acts of intimidation and terrorism as never seen before. Therefore one can say that the TTP has delivered on its threat to widen the conflict engulfing the Tribal Areas.

But Karachi is a different case because it was the first nesting place of Al Qaeda and is still a stronghold of madrassas that produce suicide-bombers. One recent dead bomber has been traced to the Mujahid Colony (sic!) in Nazimabad. Is Pakistan’s industrial and economic heart equipped to handle the storm which is coming? The sad fact is that the guardians of Karachi are divided despite Co-Chairperson Zardari’s cooperative party policy towards the MQM. *

mohajirs vs. the pakiban.

This is why I suggested keeping the Mohajirs where they are is a fine example of offshore balancing.

malushahi · Post by **malushahi** » 14 Oct 2008 09:16

Raja Bose wrote:These losses are not that great for al-Talal & co. He is definitely the most visible of the bedous but they got quite a few more 'silent' type investors. They have deep pockets and have been sending their 'sons' to top US/UK schools for a while now so they understand the Amirkhan cycle of ups and downs.

A bit of urban legend there, me thinks. Could you educate me on these "silent" investor types (names, countries etc.)? The world of "halaal" investing is very, very small and I may be missing something significant here. However I will leave the following for your reading.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7595672.stm

http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/08/06/ ... invest.php

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2008 ... ysbusiness

Admins, please let us know if this is OT here.

Raja Bose · Post by **Raja Bose** » 15 Oct 2008 02:06

malushahi wrote: A bit of urban legend there, me thinks. Could you educate me on these "silent" investor types (names, countries etc.)? The world of "halaal" investing is very, very small and I may be missing something significant here. However I will leave the following for your reading.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7595672.stm

http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/08/06/ ... invest.php

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2008 ... ysbusiness

Admins, please let us know if this is OT here.

Not really. The investment of the ruling families from Saudi, Oman, Bahrain and Kuwait in various industries (not just finance) is US is phenomenal (have seen some of it 1st hand). Keep in mind though that a lot of investment (what I called the 'silent type') is not direct in your face investments but done through various front organizations. Don't underestimate the business acumen of the bedous. The average saudi on the street may be a spoiled brat and so are probably 95% of the princelings but the rest of them are no camel jockeys....they are shrewd businessmen and they know their oil aint gonna last forever so they invest heavily in universities (esp. in US), IT, alternate energy research firms, banks, real estate, transportation...you name it...they have their finger in a lot of pies so unless everything goes belly-up forever they dont suffer permanent damage. Ofcourse it still may not work out coz the average saudi or dubai native is pretty laidback 'enjoy life and let expats do the work' types so they dont have a large pool of hardworking native citizenry to fall back on...its all done by temporary desi workers, gora contractors, paki sweepers.

If this is OT...maybe the newbie or Nukkad thread should be OK?

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 17 Oct 2008 01:49

Splitting the Taliban from the AlQ types is a small step. It helps to develop focussed solutions to address the threats. The Taliban will move Eastward till they reach the Indus and an amorphous region consisting of the FATA, NWFP and the Pashtun regions of Afghanistan will be consoidated. Need to see what that does to the Northern Alliance folks.

Taliban is a vehicle for Pashtun nationalism and not ummaization. AlQ on other hand is the later. Suppression of the later will lead to reduction in blowback/radicalization of IM.

A Taliban revival will put TSP west of Indus all the way to Karachi under pressure. Historically that region was always under pressure from Eastern Afghanistan.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 17 Oct 2008 03:27

ramana wrote:Splitting the Taliban from the AlQ types is a small step. It helps to develop focussed solutions to address the threats. The Taliban will move Eastward till they reach the Indus and an amorphous region consisting of the FATA, NWFP and the Pashtun regions of Afghanistan will be consoidated. Need to see what that does to the Northern Alliance folks.

Taliban is a vehicle for Pashtun nationalism and not ummaization. AlQ on other hand is the later. Suppression of the later will lead to reduction in blowback/radicalization of IM.

A Taliban revival will put TSP west of Indus all the way to Karachi under pressure. Historically that region was always under pressure from Eastern Afghanistan.

Their Islamic/Talibanic character however lends the Pushtun a lot more options.

As far as logistics go:
They get a suffusion of Islamic fighters from all over the world.
They get financing from the pious.
They get Al Qaida connections and direction from them.

But besides that the Islamic character allows more benefits. They get to make inroads into Pakjabi heartland using Islam. They get to commit suicide bombings in TSP, without any danger of ethnic backlash. They have the support of the biggest network in Pakistan, that of seminaries and mosques.

Just on the basis of Pakhtoonkhwa, they could not have waged a successful campaign for Pushtunistan, but as Taliban, there is nothing stopping them.

Paul · Post by **Paul** » 18 Oct 2008 09:38

Ramana, here is part-II of the article on Mohajirs from Chowk

History and Origins of MQM Part II
Ali Chishti October 16, 2008
Tags: Mohajir , immigrants , Sindh , Karachi , Pakistan , History , Politics
History of Mohajirs
Pakistani politics cannot be understood without paying close attention to the deep ethnic cleavages that line its polity. The decisive moments in its brief history – the 1971 war with India which led to the creation of Bangladesh, the horrific violence that rocked Karachi in the mid-90s– both area reflection of Pakistan’s inability to transcend narrow ethno-linguistic boundaries in either revenue allocation or in crafting policies around language and culture.
Here below, I explicate how the vicious ethnic politics in Karachi, the first capital of Pakistan and a city which contributes 65% (in some analysis 68 plus percent) of all revenue to the central coffers, has come to define the ethno-political dysfunction that has marked Pakistan’s history.
Mohajirs

The Arabic word Mohajir means a refugee and in Pakistan, it generally refers to “non-Punjabi Indian Muslim immigrants”.
One of the reasons why Urdu speaking immigrants are seen as Mohajirs and Punjabi immigrants not is that while the Punjabi Muslim immigrants were able to assimilate very well within the ethnically similar Punjab, the educated Urdu speaking immigrants from the Gangetic plains and elsewhere formed a culturally distinct group in Sindh.

The Mohajirs post partition formed the educated ’salariat’ (Hamza Alavi’s term describing the educated British favoring class during the Raj) in the nation’s capital city, Karachi. They were overrepresented in the bureaucracy, media, and managerial positions in the private sector. Politically, they were ardent nationalists who studiously avoided ethnic politics and favored Islamist parties until the reorganization in mid 1960s. The Mohajirs cynically supported the military and strong central government so as to keep the federalist pressures, as in demands by other ethnicities for ‘fairer’ representation in bureaucracy and elsewhere, at bay. The arrangement fell apart as Bengalis rebelled and won independence in 1971. The same year Bhutto was elected and he ushered in a federalist structure by first revising the Regional Quota system in federal bureaucracy to lower Mohajir quota from 17 to 7.6%, and then by nationalizing some key financial institutions that were owned by Mohajirs. Since then things have changed dramatically for Mohajirs - they have come to be underrepresented in state educational colleges and jobs, and have lost some of their economic muscle.

The rulers and the Mohajirs

Pakistan as a nascent nation got off to bad start. Its ‘father of the nation’ (Baba-e-Qaum) – really a Jawaharlal Nehru and Gandhi rolled in one for that country – died a little more than a year after its creation. Whatever little chance the nation had of enlightened leadership vanished as Liaquat Ali Khan, a close confidant of Jinnah, was assassinated merely four years into his reign as a Prime Minister. Then, after a period that saw 6 prime ministers in 7 years, Mohammad Ayub Khan grabbed power in a coup and steered Pakistan into an alliance with the US. Midway during his rule in 1964, he fought and won elections, which were widely seen as rigged, against Fatima Jinnah, sister of Mohammad Ali Jinnah. Mohajirs sided with Fatima Jinnah in that election and suffered targeted violence at the hands of Gohar Khan, son of Ayub Khan, for such temerity. Just as an aside Ayub Khan’s son Gohar Ayub Khan was Pakistan’s Foreign Minister in the Nawaz Sharif government and Gohar’s son, Omar Ayub Khan, became Pakistan’s current Minister of State for Finance. Ayub Khan in 1964 moved the capital city from Karachi to Rawalpindi on an interim basis and then to Islamabad, its current resting place. The move was widely seen by Mohajirs as a way to marginalize them. In 1969, he turned reigns over to the only second Shiite after Liaquat to lead Pakistan, General Yahya Khan. Yahya Khan of course famously led Pakistan into another losing war with India in 1971 that led to the creation of Bangladesh. Following the 1971, nearly half a million Bihari Muslims, who had moved to East Pakistan in 1947, demanded that they be expatriated to Pakistan. Out of the nearly half a million refugees, Bhutto – the successor to Yahya Khan – only allowed 100,000 before his Sindhi constituency forced him to abandon the rest. The stranded Biharis live in refugee camps in Bangladesh till today. The issue of these abandoned Biharis further alienated the Mohajirs who had vigorously campaigned for them.

Bhutto was elected at a time when Pakistan felt chastened by the independence of Bangladesh. Bhutto felt that his first job was to let of the steam of ethnic pressures within Pakistan by redrafting the quota system for federal bureaucracy and other educational institutions so as to provide for more proportional representation of different ethnicities. Bhutto, who is generally considered an enlightened statesman within Pakistan- and there are good grounds to think that the authoritarian leader was just that, was also a closet Sindhi nationalist. Bowing to his native constituency, the Sindhis, he instituted urban-rural quotas that resulted in a precipitous decline in the number of jobs to which the predominantly urban Mohajirs were eligible. The interesting side note to this controversy is that given that the regional quota system that was based on the demographic strength of each ethnicity, the census became the most politicized document in Pakistan.

After Bhutto’s assassination, Pakistani Politics was run by Zia-ul-Haq singly for about 10 years. Haq’s rule is legendary not only for his fateful decision to involve Pakistan in Afghanistan, but also for his full throttle Islamization that he unveiled to support the prior cause.
Haq, a Punjabi, also deeply reviled Mohajirs. The war in Afghanistan led to another refugee influx in Karachi that was to change the dynamics within Karachi to the worse once more. This time the influx of Pathans was also accompanied by wide availability of small arms. “Between 1986 and 1989, the prices of guns went down by 40 to 50% in Karachi. The TT-pistol sold for Rs. 5500 in 1987. In 1989, it was priced at Rs. 3000. In the Frontier, the price of an AK-47 went down from Rs. 40 000 in 1980 to Rs. 16 000 in 1989.”

End of 1988 saw Bhutto being elected as PM of Pakistan in a much feted election. The time period of course ties neatly with the ‘end of Afghan war’ and the reduced utility for US of a military regime in Pakistan. Bhutto, daughter of Zufikar Ali Bhutto, rode to power with a coalition government that included MQM. Post election, Benazir is widely alleged to have run one of the most corrupt regimes.
Just to give you a flavor of the bankruptcy of the regime, Madam Bhutto appointed her mother, Nusrat, as a senior minister without portfolio and her father-in-law as chairman of the parliamentary public accounts committee. In addition, ever the Sindhi nationalist and eager to firm up her credentials there, she didn’t throw much rope to Mohajirs.
The relationship quickly soured and MQM in turn found an ally in Nawaz Sharif’s Punjabi dominated PML. It is important to note that this proved to be a death knell in terms of Sindhi-Mohajir relations against what many saw was Punjabi dominance, especially post Zia, at the center.
Bhutto oversaw the worst of rioting in Karachi in the mid 90s in her second stinct at the helm. Corruption wise things didn’t change much in her second stint as PM either as she appointed her husband, Asif Zardari, as the environment minister. Of course, Zardari did more than merely handle the environment. After moving through an interim prime minister, Sharif eventually came to power in 1997. He in turn was deposed by General Pervez Musharraf, a Mohajir, in 1999 – which brings us to the ‘end’. We can talk about Shaukat Aziz but lets not. Most trace the ascent of Musharraf to the top in a Punjabi dominated military exactly because of his status as a Mohajir - the Punjabi military bosses promoted him for they felt that a Mohajir would never attempt, and much less succeed, in a coup d’etat. Musharraf’s relations with the Mohajir community of course have been on warm terms but that has attracted the ire of nearly all others. The 2007 Karachi riots hence can be seen as a stage managed confrontation between PPP led Sindhis and MQM.

Demographic factors in Karachi

Sindh’s urban society was dominated by Hindus before 1947. The native Muslim population was primarily rural. The emigration of Hindus post partition left a vacuum which was filled by the educated Muslim immigrants from India. In the 1981 census, only 6% of the population identified themselves as Sindhi.

The relative affluence of the Mohajirs was always a rubbing point for the Sindhis.

Post 1971 war with India during which Bangladesh was created, nearly 100,000 Bihari Muslims who had migrated to Bangladesh during partition immigrated to Karachi. Another 300,000 Biharis were left stranded in Bangladesh in over 60 refugee camps as political will ran out as Bihari immigrants became a political liability in Sindh. The Bihari immigrants who speak Urdu have traditionally been seen as part of the Mohajir community.

Then starting with 1980s, Afghan refugees starting pouring into Karachi as Afghan war got underway. The Afghan immigrants were widely alleged to have brought along with them the ‘drug and arms’ mafia and the number of small arms in city just ballooned as ethnic conflagrations became deadlier. The Afghans threw their weight politically behind the Punjabis, and the nexus worked effectively and to deadly effect in the riots in the mid 80s and then again in the mid-90s.

Language and Cultural issues

Urdu was instituted as the official national language at the inception of Pakistan even though only a pitifully small fraction of Pakistanis spoke the language. In the widely cited 1961 census results, it was reported that Urdu was the mother tongue of a mere 3.7% of all Pakistanis (7.5% in West Pakistan), and only 15% of West Pakistanis were able to speak Urdu at all. It is hopefully already clear that Urdu was the language spoken by the Mohajirs and they fought tooth and nail to keep it the only ‘official’ language.

Language has been a key issue in Pakistani politics. In fact one of the major rallying points for East Pakistanis was recognition of Bengali as one of the state languages. In Sindh, there was widespread resentment against Urdu. In 1972, Sindh province (Bhutto) passed a resolution instituting Sindhi as the second official language. The act led to ‘language riots’ as Mohajirs, concerned about losing economic privilege that emanated from their ability to speak Urdu, rioted. Language riots are often seen as a turning point in the city’s history and the relation between Mohajirs and Sindhis.

Revenue Sharing Issue

In 1995-96, Karachi’s estimated contribution to the Federal and Provincial Tax Revenue was Rs 453 billion or just a little over 67%. Karachi metropolitan area’s population of about 12-14 million then was just about 10% of Pakistan’s total population. The Federal Government reallocated just over 2% of the revenues it harvested from Karachi back into Pakistan that year. The imbalance can be largely explained by the redistributive nature of tax regimes in which taxes from rich provinces are often used to provide for public goods elsewhere. While that is largely true, there was also explicit discrimination that led to such neglect of infrastructure that it almost killed the cash cow of Pakistan.

Paul · Post by **Paul** » 30 Oct 2008 10:33

perspective

Talibanisation: how it all began

The how, when and why – a historical analysis of how the extremist element came about in Pakistan and how it affects its citizens

By Shahid Husain

In the wake of a mass movement led by the Pakistan National Alliance (PNA) in 1977, the then Prime Minister Zulfikar Ali Bhutto declared Ahmedis as non-Muslims and banned liquor and gambling. Obviously, the move was aimed at appeasing the religious elements because Bhutto was a social democrat and not a religious person. The origin of Talibanisation in Pakistan can be traced back to that move and even earlier to the anti-Ahmedi riots.

However, Islamic militancy flourished in its true sense when military dictator General Ziaul Haq usurped power in July 1977 and promoted the Madrassa culture. Today, those violent traditions have reached their zenith. This can be gauged from the fact that Pakistan is now on top of the list of countries who have to bear suicide attacks, even coming ahead of Afghanistan and Iraq in terms of deaths and casualties.

Taliban literally means student. These students are the product of madrassas that mushroomed across Pakistan, including Karachi, since the Zia era and played a vital role in the so-called Afghan Jihad. It's no wonder many of the Taliban leaders were educated in Pakistani madrassas and have been proponents of a puritan ideology that is akin to the teachings of Islam that even the right-wing Jamaat-e-Islami (JI) find it difficult to endorse. Recently, religious scholars have also issued Fatwas (religious edicts) denouncing suicide bombing.

However, it must be kept in mind that religious extremism and intolerance is not confined to madrassa students because in the wake of the 9/11 tragedy and the subsequent bombing of Afghanistan and Iraq by the United States, even highly educated people in Pakistan have been influenced by the Taliban and al Qaeda and their network encompasses the entire country, including Karachi. The Wall Street journalist Daniel Pearl, for instance, was trapped in the financial hub of Pakistan on January 23, 2002, and brutally murdered by a highly educated al Qaeda operative. Similarly, Ramzi bin al-Shibh, one of the leaders of the Hamburg cell that had planned the 9/11 attacks, was arrested in Karachi.

Intolerance in Pakistan, including Karachi, has grown slowly and steadily and at times it has been perpetuated by the state. The tolerance threshold in Karachi, as elsewhere in the country, was remarkable up till the 1960s. Hotels and restaurants used to remain open during the holy month of Ramazan and merely curtains were drawn on the fronts and nobody objected if a non-fasting Muslim or a non-Muslim went in restaurants to have a meal. Similarly, both Shia and Sunni Muslims participated in Majalis at Nishtar Park in Karachi and processions during Moharram. Christians in Karachi had their lively clubs and nobody was bothered if Christian women wore skirts etc.

But with the brutalisation of society in the wake of the Afghan War, Karachi also became intolerant quite rapidly. Several jihadi groups, closely associated with the Taliban, began preaching sectarianism quite openly; so much so that a large number of professionals hailing from the Shia minority started migrating to western countries after target killings of Shia doctors a couple of years ago

Lately, the "City of Lights" is witnessing yet another trauma. Tens of thousands of innocent civilians have been displaced in the Federally Administrated Tribal Areas (FATA) and Swat as a result of ongoing military operation against Taliban and bombing by drones of ISAF forces. They have been forced to migrate to relatively safer places, including Karachi and live in miserable conditions with their friends and relatives. But alarmingly, a vicious campaign is going on against them these days. Without verifying facts it is being claimed that hundreds of thousands of Taliban have entered Karachi. This is ridiculous because according to Rahimullah Yousufzai, a veteran journalist and an authority on Taliban, the strength of Taliban guerrilla forces – even in Afghanistan – is not more than 5,000.

However, in the absence of the culture for dialogue and easy availability of deadly weapons, the emerging scenario in Karachi is fraught with danger.

Psychiatrists point out that aggression may be a response to frustration but as behaviour it is learnt in the process of socialisation and is reinforced through rewards. This is what we are witnessing today.

The state patronised ethnicity and sectarianism in the yesteryear. It also used madrassa students for its geopolitical interests in Afghanistan, but the strategy backfired. Today, the state finds it extremely difficult to rein in Taliban and other jihadi forces in FATA and Swat because they have been thoroughly brainwashed and are fully equipped with deadly weapons.

Given the situation, one can only predict that a persistent policy of tolerance and dialogue can save Karachi and other parts of Pakistan from bloodshed and mayhem.

Paul · Post by **Paul** » 30 Oct 2008 10:37

talibanisation

The Taliban are coming – or are they?

By Sabeen Jamil

Residents of Aiwan Colony in Karachi have recently learnt a new fact: The dumper trucks that some of them own can actually yield income in more ways then one.

This nugget, narrated by some to Kolachi, comes from information gleaned from refugees who have arrived in the city from parts of FATA and the NWFP. Along with a dumper, if the family also spares one male child, the Taliban can pay them up to Rs5 million as "compensation."

Needless to say, the combination of a dumper and a 'volunteer' to drive it has become the biggest threat faced by cities in Pakistan. There are some migrants who have done exactly that. "They sold their way out of poverty," it is said. They sold one of their six or seven male children. However, after the deal, they left their hometowns for other cities in Pakistan "including Karachi," says an area resident. Yet, no one is willing to say whether any ended up at Aiwan Colony.

Have the Taliban come to Karachi?

The Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) says that the Taliban have not only established themselves in Karachi, but have also started "Talibanising" some Pakhtun-dominated neighborhoods in SITE and Gulshan-e-Iqbal Town.

Talking to Kolachi, MQM representatives identify Pathan Colony, Sohrab Goth, Afghan Goth and some neighborhoods of Manghopir Hills, namely Pakhtunabad, Sultanabad and Aiwan Colony (also called Kowwari Colony and Waziristan Colony by locals) as areas where taliban are "forcefully implementing a specific form of tribalised Islam," says Haider Abbas Rizvi, an MQM parliamentarian.

Who are the Taliban?

Taliban are, "those who have fought against the government in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA), and have now moved to Karachi," says Faisal Sabzwari, Sindh Minister for Youth Affairs, stressing that they should not be confused with the innocent people who migrated to Karachi to escape war.

Rizvi adds that the Taliban among the migrants to Karachi must number in the thousands and that they have relocated as part of a strategic move to spread themselves.

Besides the migrants, Sabzwari and Rizvi also categorise those willing to work for the Taliban, those who are providing funds to them and "a lot of students in the madrassas in Karachi" as Taliban. According to Rizvi, there must be some "0.2 m Taliban in more than 2,000 madrassas in Karachi."

Rizvi and Sabzwari tell Kolachi that the Taliban in Karachi are heavily armed and supported by some ethnic and religious parties such as, "Jamat-i-Islami whose members sheltered a lot of Al-Qaeda members in their houses."

Sabzwari believes that donations collected in the name of the Taliban by some mosques in Karachi, the pro-Taliban wall chalking and the reports appearing in some sections of press suggesting that CD shops were closed in Pakhtunabad and Sultanabad "suggest that the process of Talibanising Karachi has begun."

The Ground Reality

"No one has asked us to close down," says Ikram Shah, at Muskaan Video shop at Pakhtunabad. Ikram tells Kolachi that, while running the shop, he earns up to Rs30,000 per month and that the business has not gone down in years. "Not even after the arrival of migrants," he says, adding that, for the last seven years, he has been renting at least 40 cassettes daily and the number has not decreased. Ikram says that his colony is far from the possibility of Taliban influence. "My clientele include both average Pakhtun men as well as the bearded religious preachers at mosques," he tells Kolachi, adding that, in Pakhtunabad, people know how to keep "religion balanced with everyday life" and would not even allow an attempt to Talibanise the area.

"Even if militants have moved from war zones to these neighborhoods," says a resident of Aiwan Colony, "they cannot turn them in to Waziristan nor have they attempted to."

The sight of the open CD shops in these areas seems to give credence to that, as does Pakhtun men getting a shave at the barber shop while enjoying television, an equal number of girls and boys heading to school in uniform and a great number of Pakhtun women clad in a Chaddar along with some women in the traditional Afghan burqa moving around the streets or shopping at the market.

"A lot of children of migrating families have enrolled in our school," says Khalid Aleem a science teacher at a school in Pathan Colony. Aleem feels that a majority of them have moved only because they did not want to be a part of the war – else they would have stayed back. "They are also facing a lot of problems in adjusting and finding jobs in Karachi," he says.

An ethno-political stunt?

"This is just a scare fabricated to serve political and ethnic interests," believes SITE Town Naib-Nazim Syed Badsha while denying the presence of Taliban or Talibanization in his town or in Karachi.

The Awami National Party (ANP) and Jamaat-i-Islami (JI) share somewhat similar views. JI Naib-Ameer Asadullah Bhutto, while denying MQM's charges of JI supporting the Taliban, says that, if there were Taliban in Karachi, MQM, being an ally of the government, should have identified them and taken action." Asadullah adds that if the scare is true then MQM should resign from the government for not being able to protect the city from the Taliban.

Shahi Syed, President, ANP, Sindh, on the other hand, says that Taliban may moved to Karachi but he totally rules out the possibility of Karachi being Talibansied because "Taliban need mountains, caves, hideouts and a long supply line of food and arms to grow," which, he says, is impossible to get in Karachi.

Syed adds that, if there was Taliban or Talibanisation in areas identified by the MQM, the ANP would have been the first to know as they have offices in all those areas. Syed goes on to say that those who think the ANP is supporting Talibanisation in Karachi should correct themselves because ANP was the first to raise a voice against the phenomenon and will do the same if it happens in the city.

SOS: Save Karachi from Talibanisation

Sabzwari suggests that madrassas being taken into the national loop, those coming to Karachi being registered and Afghan nationals being sent back to their homes are possible actions that can curb the phenomenon in Karachi.

Abdul Waheed, an ASHOKA fellow (an international association of social entrepreneurs aiming to bring solutions to the problems in societies), who is working on bringing religious reforms in Karachi's madrassas, especially in Pakhtun neighborhood in SITE Town and Gulshan-e-Iqbal Town since 1993, proposes something different.

Having worked in these neighbourhoods for over a decade, Waheed says that he has not found Taliban or Talibanisation anywhere. Yet, given the poverty, lack of civic infrastructure, government schools, hospitals and developmental schemes by the government, he says, there is a threat that youngsters in these areas can fall prey to the Talibanisation trap.

"Taliban target the oppressed and idle faction in societies," he says. Therefore, Waheed suggests, the government, instead of carrying an armed operation or expelling people from these areas, should initiate employment schemes, provide basic health and education facilities and update infrastructure, on an immediate basis. Waheed believes this will avert the threat of Talibanization.

Besides this, he proposes that the government help the refugee families settle in Karachi, provide them with employment and shelter to prevent them from resorting to criminal activities out of frustration or to meet their financial needs.

Waheed stresses that the migrants should be "developed by exposing them to a moderate city."

This is why I said the current spin to pull Pakistan out by injecting a few dollars is like arranging deck chairs on the Titanic.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 04 Nov 2008 21:17

X-posted from SSridhar....

..........................
The FATA Challenge - by Imtiaz Ali

Imtiaz Ali has a good reputation of reporting from the FATA area and when he says the following it carries weight.

Once dormant in Pakistan’s tribal areas, militants are stronger than ever . . . . One of the groups currently absorbing legions of young Pashtun tribesman is the Tehrik-e Taliban Pakistan . . . . For a generation raised on legends of Afghan resistance against the Soviets and the mythologised Afghan-Arab Mujahideen, many in the region saw the foreign fighters as noble, and their struggle resonating with the stories of their upbringing. When combined with the hospitality prescribed by Pashtunwali, the traditional code of conduct, this proved impetus enough to take the foreign fighters in, and in some cases, join them. . . .Emboldened by swelling numbers and repeated successes, they no longer relied solely on the “hit-and-run” guerrilla warfare of the past, but began “capture-and-stay” operations. Today, the Pakistani Taliban, led by commander Baitullah Mehsud, for the first time ventures out of the tribal areas, eyeing cities like Lahore and Karachi, the cultural and financial hubs of the country, respectively. . . .The paramount question is why the Talibanisation of Pakistan has not been tamed despite the deployment of close to 100,000 troops and dozens of military operations, aided by US forces just across the border in Afghanistan. The answer’s simple: The Taliban knows the people and the terrain; both provide cover. . . . . To end FATA’s role as a breeding ground for terrorists, Pakistan must first isolate militants — local as well as foreign — from native tribesmen, by rebuilding the traditional Pashtun society in a region where it’s been exploited. Only the Pashtun themselves can counter the march of Taliban. . . . . However, money is not getting to the people in the remote areas. During meetings and interviews in the region, hundreds of tribesmen asked me the same question: “Where is the money we have been hearing of? Where are the development projects?” . . . . The overwhelming majority of Pashtuns realised that Talibanisation has tarnished their liberal and progressive image, posing a threat to their identity. Recent formation of indigenous tribal lashkars against Taliban militants throughout the tribal areas and the NWFP is one sign of this realisation. Local people have taken up arms and it’s high time to isolate terrorists through winning the hearts and minds of common Pashtuns. {This is a last ditch effort. If it fails this time, even the sympathetic Pashtuns will either join the Taliban or be forced to do so. Neither the GoP nor the PA has it in them to manage this successfully}

Lalmohan · Post by **Lalmohan** » 11 Nov 2008 14:19

Captured battle plan shows strength and training of Taleban forces

One eminent Pakistani political figure, speaking on condition of anonymity, claimed that al-Qaeda and the Taleban had set up a joint headquarters in 2004 as an “Islamic emirate” in North Waziristan, headed by Sirajuddin Haqqani, an Afghan Taleban commander. (His father, Jalaluddin Haqqani, a veteran of the fight against the Soviet Union, was funded by the CIA 30 years ago and was once fêted at the White House by Ronald Reagan.)

“Sirajuddin ... connects the Taleban with al-Qaeda and the Pakistani Taleban with the Afghan Taleban,” the source said. “It basically runs the war and has made Fata today the same as Afghanistan was before September 11 - controlled by foreign and local militants who fight a war on both sides of the border.”

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 12 Nov 2008 00:45

The rise of Pakiban is erasing the Durand line. What we are seenig is the gradual failure of two states- TSP and Afghanistan. In Afghanistan elections are slated in 2009. If the Taliban ensure reduced Pashutn participation it will lead to a default Northern Alliance Tajik leadership which will unite all Pashtuns(sarkari and non sarkari, Ghilzai and Durrani)) under the Taliban black flag. So any way one looks at it 2009 is critical year for that area.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 12 Nov 2008 00:54

X-posted...

Raja Ram wrote: Posted...29 Oct 2008

ramana,

That both PRC and Saudi the two other benefactors of pakistan did not come to immediate rescue is important and noteworthy. If you recollect, I had started a thread here post "elections" in Pakistan. I had postulated then that this was a carefully negotiated transition between the three factions that control Pakistan - RAPE controlled politicos (backed by US [ppp, MQM & PML q] and Saudi [PML - N]), Army (backed by coldwar US faction in pentagon and army and increasingly China) and Jehadi (mainly Saudi backed).

While there is a carefully constructed balance between the three benefactors of the reniter state themeselves there is also independent nuances between the relationsip between Pakistan and the benefectors as well as in between the factions that control the rentier state.

At that time I had an inclination that the US was cutting a deal in putting in place a "democratic" facade in Pakistan and then controlling the war on terror to minimise impact on US and NATO forces in Afghanistan. It looks like part of the deal was to provide relief to Pakistan by allowing some kind of role to a resurrected "good" taliban so that Paki leaders can breath easy with a recovery of strategic depth. One thing that really riled Musharaff was Indian presence and role in Afghanistan. This must have been something which both China and Saudi wanted as well and must have supported pakistani position in this negotiated transition.

What is now becoming clear is that the US, on its part is trying to take the battle into Paki territory and that is causing irritation to both the army and the other two benefactors Saudi and China. This could possibly explain their holding on to their purse strings to bail out. The US on the other hand is not averse to the bail out but with a difference this time. Instead of the usual arms grants and direct grants and loans they want to use the IMF to exercise more control over pakistan policies.

While it looks like pakistani mess this time is more severe and far more irreversible, one should not forget the other pillars of paki economy- drug trade and international terror funding. That is a huge part of their economy - one can read the many articles of B Raman to get an idea. The ability of the Us to squeeze the drug trade is directly proporitional to establishing their writ on both sides of the Durand line. It looks like that is still a tall order and there will be enough elements within the Paki army and establishment to scuttle that.

From an Indian perspective, this represents an opportunity - by using a combination of seemingly soft policies like talk of free trade and common destiny - remember only talk- and tightening the squeeze on paki sponsored terror outfits in J&K and more importantly elsewhere, making sure there is adequate support for the regional groups in Pakistan.

It is in India's interest that Pakistan as a rentier nation state ceases to exist. The best way of destruction is to aid and abett the process of peaceful pakistan implosion (PPI). However, and this is the big point, it is still very clear that the three benefactors states of the reniter state would want pakistan to survive, each for their own reasons. The pakistani establishment is well aware of that and have become past masters in exploiting this.

Just a ramble as usual.

Paul · Post by **Paul** » 12 Nov 2008 00:59

More than OBL, Zawahiri, or Omar it is the Haqqanis who are the top dogs in the Taliban network.

They are the operations managers with complete control over the ground forces. To make the mix more interesting, during the jihad against USSR forces, they were the ones working very closely with the CIA.

It is this type of incestous relationship that makes the war against Taliban so difficult.

At a different level - Obama should disband the CIA and form a new intelligence which would nullify these old boy networks. Truman did this in theopening stages of the cold war and it brought significant dividends for the western alliance.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 12 Nov 2008 01:09

Another x-post of significance

Vivek_A wrote:US jets bomb Tirah Valley
Source: Our monitoring desk submitted 2 hours 1 minute ago

US fighter jets and artillery batteries struck inside Khyber Agency’s Tirah Valley, killing seven people and wounding five others, reported private TV channels on Sunday.
The strikes occurred after Taliban fighters attacked Afghan forces along the border between Pakistan and Afghanistan. US forces targeted the Taliban militants as they crossed the border into the Tirah Valley in Khyber agency.
The fighter jets targeted a group of 40 pedestrians on Morga mountains in Tirah Valley and pounded them with bombs. Consequently, seven of them were killed on the spot and five others sustained severe injuries.
The dead and injured were shifted to Tehsil Bara later on.
The jets and artillery operating from Afghanistan targeted the hills in Tirah Valley, Pakistani authorities quoting locals said.
The attack took place in Morga area in the remote Tirah Valley, located close to the volatile Afghan border. “The airstrike killed at least seven people from the Qambar Khel tribe, while four or five more were wounded,” an official in the area told a German news agency.
The jets and artillery targeted the mountains in Tirah Valley following an exchange of fire between rebels and Afghan security forces deployed on the border, TV channels quoted officials as saying.
The exchange of fire between the suspected militants and Afghan security forces on the border continued for some time, creating tensions in the area.
The Tirah Valley is home to the Lashkar-i-Islam, an extremist group that is run by Mangal Bagh. The Lashkar-i-Islam has been battling for control of the valley with the rival Ansarul Islam.
The US military has chased and attacked Taliban forces while in ‘hot pursuit’ across the border into Pakistan several times since 2001.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 12 Nov 2008 01:14

PPI will take care of a lot of small troubles in the neighborhood and some within.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 12 Nov 2008 01:42

No matter how much lipstick is put on the TSP pig, the fact remains that the TSPA got defeated in FATA/WANA and this will have consequences on the integrity of the TSP. The way I see it, TSPA is the kabila guard that keeps the camp residents from checking out or in. The Islamist tribals have defeated the guards and its a matter of time before they get into the camp and ravage it. Usually in such cases it takes about a year or two for the rollover. SU got defeated in Afghanistan in 1988 and by 1992 they collapsed.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 12 Nov 2008 03:58

Naresh wrote: ramana Ji :

Your Post #121 Today 12-11-2008 @ 02:08 AM

Whilst the collapse of Pakistan is a possibility what are repercussions that will be suffered by India and what preparations - actions should India take to guard against the “Mother of all Exoduses”.

Yes there will be an increase in refugees and terrorism but a big impediment for India's march will be removed. The bogey of threat to India with TSP collapse is a Western/DIE construct to keep Indians worried and prop up the very institution/entitiy that was created to hinder India. The West and PRC will take back the nukes if they havent already or else they will get whats coming to them from the dregs. After that its a normal law and order situation.

The coallapse of TSP will be complicated and complex. There are ethnic divisions- Pakjabi vs Sindhi, Pakjabi vs Baloch, Pakjabi vs Pashtun. The Kashmiris will bleat to get back into India. There are regional divisions- Punjab, Sindh, Baloch, Pashtun. There is urban vs rural divide. Karachi is a free for all with all the refugees. And then there is the locals vs mohajirs. Religious divide between Sunnis and Shias and others. And Iran might want to rush into Balochistan which should be discouraged. Durand line will go away and lead to a new Pashtun nation. And the Northern Areas might spin off. It will be a combination of FSU and Yugoslavia.

So need a strategy to engage all these groups and address their own needs. Then there is the RAPE and the rest. All artists, RAPE will flock to India. The Mullahs too might want to get back to Deoband, Hyderabad, Gulbarga etc. the big problem is TSP Army has been totally Pakjabised even in the Baloch Regt etc. So unlike in Bangladesh one cant count on the native regiments to take care of law and order. Some new regts have to be raised and staffed.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 12 Nov 2008 05:03

Naresh wrote:
ramana Ji :

Many thanks for your reply,

The Refugee Influx into Pakistan by the de-stabilization of Afghanistan is a pointer to the number of Pakistani Refugees rushing into India.

This will be in multiples of Tens of Millions especially with the Indian Hindu Leftist-Liberal Secular Leaders - the ones screaming from the roof tops of a Visa Free Entry for Pakistanis into India in General and then the Indian Muslim Leaders in Particular..

This is a very real scenario as Iran wont accept the Pakistani Refugees and Afghanistan is an unlikely destination.

As such India will be lumbered with Pakistani Refugees - in the Tens of Millions - many times that of the East Pakistan Hindus as well as Muslims ( I believe it was Nine to Ten Million) who sought refuge in India in 1971.

What measures can India take to stop this envisaged inflow?

Cheers

I do hint at steps. Local armies have to be raised for the regions to provide law and order. Current TSPA composition is Pakjabi with a few sarkari Pashtuns. A state for Mohajirs has to be accounted for in the melee. Or they get Karachi. Yes there will be quite few refugees outflow who might go back if the things return to normal. Under no circumustances can the new states be allowed to have religious identity. This new jahliya will lead to instability in Middle East, Central Asia and even PRC's Sinkiang region. So its a powder keg. No easy answers. But its coming in a few years.

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 12 Nov 2008 05:21

. Pakshtoon will have their country and Sindhis will cling to their land and economic support to them will buy their loyalty .Majority of the refuggees are gonna be from Pakjab and can be easily managed . My onlee fear is PPI gonna happen sooner than expectation and Yindoos wont be ready for the windfall.

Paul · Post by **Paul** » 12 Nov 2008 06:58

Indian DIEs have built up enough bridges with Pakjabi Politcos to move on to the next level in west punjab.

Nawaz Sharif carries enough muscle to form the western satrapy to de-islamize Pakjab. other Pakjabi power centers are either unreliable (Chaudries) or do not carry credibilty.

As I said many months, soon the Indo-Pak border will start being called it;'s old name - Radcliffe line. It is a stop on the way to undoing partition.

Paul · Post by **Paul** » 12 Nov 2008 07:00

A state for the mohajirs is a must to keep this region under Indian influence.

Paul · Post by **Paul** » 12 Nov 2008 07:06

So far 2 predictions by BRF are coming to happen and is being accepted slowly in mainstream media:

1. There is a Pakhtun civil war going on in Pak-Afghania and Taliban are the surrogate pakhtun nationalists

2. Karzai is on he loser's side.

My prediction is sooner or later, India will work out an agreement with the Shrif clan to evolve a political apparatus for west pakjab.

Shahbaz may not be completely on board with this arrangement for the mid-term.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 12 Nov 2008 09:54

I dont think there is any group that has studied TSP with the intensity that we have. All those versions of TSP threads were invaluable resources.

Soon the rest of the concepts will be imbibed. Caroe was doing his damnedest to prevent the Pashtun state as he knew TSP wouldnt form otherwise for his Great Game purposes.

What do we know of the Sharif khandaan? I know his father dreamed of re-establishing the Caliphate.

Raja Ram · Post by **Raja Ram** » 12 Nov 2008 10:28

ramana,

Sorry for an OT post here, but just saw that you had cross posted one of my earlier posts in this thread.

While peaceful implosion of pakistan (PIP easier to remember than PPI) is undoubtedly in Indian interests, as you rightly point out, you can expect a hue and cry from DIE circles ably backed by a democratic administration in the US eager to cut a deal to get US and NATO out of afghanistan or at least out of harm's way.

What next ? - your favorite question is important too. PIP will come with consequences- does it have to do be the undoing of partition and the establishment of a greater India? My view, again contrarian I suppose, is no. I think we need more partitions of the rentier state. How we get there is the challenge India will have to face. There is going to be costs, both human and material, associated with this.

I am not sure if there is a gameplan that GOI has. It has been reactive so far to developments rather than driving it. It was indeed interesting and redeeming to see the GOI pursue a quick well thought out strategy in capitalising on the fall of the taliban in Afghanistan. In hindsight, the Indian response was ideal way forward for us. Where my concern is the ability of the GOI to follow through on the window of opportunity created in Pakistan - its economic situation and the global crisis faced by its benefactors along with relative insulation of India from the global financial crisis is definitely a window to push the agenda of PIP.

If you recall, on the thread called US presidential elections I had indicated the implications that are arising from the ascendancy of Obama to the POTUS. The indicators so far is that those predicted moves are coming true.

In the coming days, one can see stories coming in our media and other forums of the need to help Pakistan and how it is in our best interest to have a view of a common South Asian destiny. One hopes that GOI does not fall into that trap.

We can also see some symbolic attempts to woo India by Obama the President - top amongst it would be - negotiate kashmir and settle and we will welcome India to the security council as a permenant member (without veto of course). Predicitably this will start some serious debate as to how we should sieze the day and learn to behave as a global power and welcome US intervention in Kashmir.

More on this later. It is perhaps not the right thread as it relates to Pakiban and it origins.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 12 Nov 2008 10:40

No please continue here. While studying the PAkiban the possibilities of TSP PIP have become obvious. If you see my posts (five to six before this) above I dont favor remerger. They have found their separate freedom and they should continue. I dont want religion based identity for those new states. I advocate raising new armies to ensure law and order. Atleast as thinking Indians we need to look at this issue. What GOI does even it doesnt know. One never knows to which gallery they play.
So regardless its essential to examine the possibilities as they unravel. I think the FATA/WANA affair is a defeat of TSP inside TSP which cant be hidden and it will have its own dynamic. I think its good to study teh different maps by Ralph Peters, Bernard Lewis, erasure of Durand Line and the Pashtunistan poster to get an idea of whats happening. One cant rule out if all these are per paln.

What are the old contacts of Taliban in US are doing? Example there were a bunch of high flying emissaries and interlocutors who were visible before 9/11 and they all got muzzled after that. Where and what are they doing? I recall one young lady who was a grand daughter of some high US official and she was Taliban spokeperson.

Raja Ram · Post by **Raja Ram** » 12 Nov 2008 11:49

Was she the grand daughter of Alexander Haig or the Carter era Secretary of State Clifford Chance or some such name?

Anyway, yes the break up will definitely be along the lines of the Balkans. But as you rightly state, it rather be based on ethinicity rather than religion. We have to however recognise and learn from the Bangladesh experience. Islam will be a factor and force of identity of the residual states post PIP. If we do not have system in place that moderates the impact and influence of Islam, then we will have more Bangladeshs to deal with. It is still better than Pakistan the rentier state.

As I see it there is only one way to achieve that. Do what the US did to Japan and Germany - bring in a clear seperation of state and religion (turkey model?) and allow for only a small self defence force by constitution, impose it and then invest heavily in the countries to put them on a path of economic prosperity that it becomes very difficult for the countries to espouse radical islam. Create a vested interested against radical islam there. Take care however, to allow religious freedoom to exist but ensure that only a non-radical islam has space to operate. This will raise a question - can there be any islam that is not radical and intolerant? It can - by and large that is the case in India. If all the Muslims in India were radical, we would be in a civil war by now.

What we should not be doing is to pursue a wet dream of commonwealth of erstwhile british India and South Asian Union of sorts. It is not necessary. If that is done, the only thing it will result in is that it will slow down our growth and a growing demand from these countries for India to share its growth without any corressponding contribution or sharing of responsibility. A thing that must be avoided.

Everything should be done for the resulting countries to be positive viz-a-viz India based on their own behaviour. If they are non-threatening and want trade and growth they can have it, not otherwise.

While this could be an end game scenario, I am still unsure of how we will handle the interim period - there is going to be dislocation of population when PIP happens. How do we handle this without letting in the people into our country. Safe havens have to be created across both sides of the Durand Line, maybe we may have to work with Iran on some of these areas. Safe havens have to be created maybe in Balochistan, POK, Karachi area etc. These havens need to be protected with no-fly zones etc. Key to this will be the defanging of the rump Pakistan and the rump PA. I do not know how all this will pan out.

Yet another thing we should be sure of. When PIP happens, the US and other great powers will want to influence that process and the resultant states- and all of them will want to limit our ability to influence as well. It is here that the Indian strategy in Afghanistan is a good learning experience. Today in Afghanistan, the indian influence and contribution is seen by ordinary Afghans as the most positive. It is seen as a stabilizing influence. It is that niche that we should play in post PIP era.

Thoughts and criticisms welcome.

Paul · Post by **Paul** » 12 Nov 2008 20:44

Her last name as I remember was "Helms", no relation to ol' Jesse Helms.

Another Taliban spokesperson was snagged by Yale some time ago.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 25 Nov 2008 23:30

Should be in this thread also..

X_posted...

gandharva wrote:
Dr A Q Khan and the language of Al Qaeda

Tuesday, November 25, 2008
Farhat Taj

In his article on Nov 19, Dr A Q Khan wrote that "mercenaries of Gen Musharraf" killed children in the Lal Masjid operation. They were soldiers of the Pakistani army, not mercenaries. They were ordered by their commanders to relieve the mosque and the adjacent children's literary from the illegal occupation of the militant Ghazi brothers and they obeyed the order under the standard of the army. Some of them even scarified their lives. To term them mercenaries is offensive.

No sane person can justify the killing of innocent children during that operation. But the militant Ghazi brothers, not Gen Musharraf or the Pakistani army, are responsible for the massacre. The Ghazi brothers led the indoctrination of the children with the most violent version of Islam, using them as a human shield against the army. Then, one of the brothers even abandoned the besieged children and tried to run away in a burqa.

The only thing Musharraf must be criticised for is his ignoring the illegal activities of the madrasa for so long. I have been to the madrasa before the operation and noticed the ignorance there. The madrasa students even interpreted the poetry of Rehman Baba, the famous mystic Pashto poet, in terms of violent jihad

Dr Khan wrote that the tribal leaders forming the tribal lashkars to confront the Al Qaeda-Taliban gangs are corrupt. Dr Khan must know that the major part of the tribal area has been taken over by the Al Qaeda-Talibna jihadis--Arabs, Uzbeks, Chechens, Afghans, Punjabis and others. The tribal area is no more Pakistan's territory and the tribal people have been taken hostage by the savage jihadis. It is now the responsibility of the Pakistani army to retake the area and release the tribal people from the barbaric occupation of the jihadis. The jihdis are committing the kind of brutality on the tribal people that can easily parallel the brutality witnessed in Karbala, and that displayed by Genghis Khan in the battlefield. It takes extraordinary courage to stand up to such brutality. The tribal leaders and their men are the heroes of the Pashtun and of Pakistan--they have taken huge dangers upon themselves and their families by resisting the jihadis. In a sense, the whole world should be thankful to them, because they have taken up on an evil that threatens every civilisation in the world. To term such people "corrupt" is deeply offensive, even disgusting.

Dr Khan questions how a prime minister form Multan, a president from Sindh and a chief of the army staff from Gujjar Khan can understand the psychology of the Pashtun. The chief of the army staff does not need to do psychoanalysis of the Pashtun. All he has to do is to fulfil his professional duty--to clean up the jihadi mess in the tribal area created by his predecessors. He must free the tribal people and territory from the savage occupation of Al Qaeda-Taliban. He must fully support, through his soldiers and weapons, the tribal people who have stood up to the jihadis.

The Pashtun voted for the party of the prime minister form Multan and the president from Sindh. At the time of the election, the Pashtun who voted for the PPP did not make a fuss about whom the party should appoint as prime minister and president. They had trust in the party, like other PPP voters in the rest of Pakistan. The PPP must now deliver on the promises it made to their voters, Pashtun or non-Pashtun, in terms of education, health and jobs.

Dr Khan suggested that a group of Pashtun men make up a committee to propose a solution to the problem in the tribal area. There is no doubt that the men he mentioned are all intelligent people of high repute. They are all experts in their fields. But the task Dr Khan suggested is not their right or their duty. It is the right and responsibility of the parliamentarians. If the parliamentarians wish, these gentlemen may be invited to the parliamentary committees or any other parliamentary forum for their advice. The Pashtun have elected their representatives to the Parliament. The ANP, which represent the "essence" of Pashtun culture, holds most Pashtun seats in Parliament. The second-largest holder of the Pashtun seats is the PPP. The other party which represents a part of the Pashtun is the JUI-F. All the three parties are in the ruling coalition. Moreover, MNAs elected from FATA are cooperating with the ruling coalition. It is the right and duty of the ruling alliance to make and implement plans to solve the problem in the tribal area. I wonder why so many people in Pakistan are ever so ready to encroach on the rights and responsibilities of the elected leaders.

I wonder why Dr Khan is writing in the language of Al Qaeda. He wrote: "They (the Muslims) ignored Allah's edict that Christian and Jews can never be their true friends." This edict of Allah is open to multiple interpretations, as has been demonstrated by various scholars of Islam. Why does Dr Khan pick up the interpretation that Al Qaeda would prefer? I wonder why Dr Khan condemns the Pashtun who took up arms against Al Qaeda as "corrupt," just like Al Qaeda would do. Why does he denounce as mercenaries the soldiers of the Pakistani army who freed the mosque and the library from the illegal occupation of the Lal Masjid militants, just as Al Qaeda would do? Why does he let down the political parties the Pashtuns elected, the ANP and PPP, just as Al Qaeda would do? Al Qaeda, as we know, is thirsty for even ANP blood.

I respect Dr Khan. I believe he deserves an opportunity, free of duress, to explain his alleged role in the spread of weapons of mass destruction. But I request him not to use the language of Al Qaeda, especially when it comes to the Pashtuns -- the biggest causality of Al Qaeda's terrorism.

The writer is a research fellow at the Centre for Interdisciplinary Gender Research, University of Oslo. Email: bergen34@yahoo.com
http://thenews.jang.com.pk/daily_detail.asp?id=148764

Is AQK a Pathan from Bhopal? He seems to be batting for the Pakiban. The debate is between this writer who has a 'sarkari' attitude and AQK who has the tribal attitude. Interesting that one can't the tribal out of the Pathan.

gandharva · Post by **gandharva** » 25 Nov 2008 23:45

Is AQK a Pathan from Bhopal?

Khan was born (Bhopal) into a middle-class Muslim-Muhajir family, which migrated from India to Pakistan in 1952.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A._Q._Khan

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 25 Nov 2008 23:48

Yes but that Mohajir family from Bhopal might claim to be Pathans? The reason is the Nawab of Bhopal was not a local IM but one of the TAP folks in Mughal Court. During the declining years of the Mughal rule the Nawabiat was established.

Arun_S · Post by **Arun_S** » 26 Nov 2008 01:27

This thread is a jewel.

Paul wrote:My prediction is sooner or later, India will work out an agreement with the Shrif clan to evolve a political apparatus for west pakjab.

I agree. Sharif has seen the writing on the wall and has been thrown around in the wagon too many times to know the sharp edges and options. He was on verge of striking a wholesale deal back in 1998, but the wholesale was untenable to other interest groups. A smaller and now isolated Pakjab is path of least resistance, as well as the force of "choices dissolving in thin air".

JMT.

Paul · Post by **Paul** » 26 Nov 2008 02:56

Ramana, the rulers of Bhopal are descended from a Bangash freeboother who came down to Bhopal during the Durrani heydays. Remember reading this in a TFT article a few years ago. They may be having an upstart background like Hyder Ali of Mysore (He was a sepoy migrated from NWFP). With the downfall of the mughal empire, opportunities opened up for freebooters to claim Shohrat and Taaqat. Some of these upstarts displaced the old royalty or ended up in matrimonial alliances with them. (Tipu tried to do this with the Nizam).

You could be right about AQK’s origins…there are a number of Pathan families settled in Central India/Deccan.

AQK’s belated defection could becuz he knows which side the wind is blowing or also be a case of siding with his old biradari (the rohillas – 3rd /4th gen pakhtuns siding with Ahmed Durrani in 1761 comes to mind here).

My post got deleted becuz I was posting at the same time as Ramana. Admin privileges rule I suppose. Had to retype all again.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 26 Nov 2008 04:14

No. But good whine excuse.Btw it reads better now! Kidding dont know how that happened.

The Bhopal Nawab was big supporter of Muslim League and emigrated after 1947. the Pataudi family got the title as the head decamped to TSP. TSP Foregin Secy. Sharayar Khan would have title if his parents stayed over.

BTW, I had the shock of my life in late 70s when I met a young Paki Durrani who spoke in Telugu. He told me later they speak Telugu at home and were from Bandar/Masulipatnam in Andhra. Apparently they were retainers for the Nizam's son titled Nawab of Bandar like the Prince of Wales. Hindusthan was a freeway once the Khyber was breached!

Paul · Post by **Paul** » 26 Nov 2008 05:24

Ahem....

If the Taliban are not defeated history is a witness that whenever Khyber has been breached, the battle has been fought in Panipat.”

http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.as ... 2008_pg1_4

Paul from TSP thread:

i was thinking the same thing..

wrt Ramana's last sentence in his last post.....Does the Indian state have the power to disprove this dictum??? Something to think about.

We need to think out of the box to analyze this...