Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

[b_karan]

Got this old article from RAND corporation published in Outlook magzine .Its an old article Sept 2000 in Outlook magzine . Posting in Full as the url needs user logins to access the same.
Admin I hope this will the right place :

Magazine| Sep 18, 2000
Cover Story

To Play The Nukebox Tune

If US think-tanks had their way, India’s most cherished dream, to emerge as a superpower, would be a reality. Harish Mehta looks at three extreme scenarios - of Pakistan being swallowed by a US-backed Indian confederation, Sino-Indian hegemony and a win-win China - conjured up by an American study.

HARISH MEHTA

"The United States of America uses its B-2 bombers in the year 2012 to launch conventional air-strikes to destroy Pakistani nuclear facilities in a bid to prevent the nukes from falling into the wrong hands. The extraordinary US action follows an unsuccessful Indian conventional attack on Pakistani nukes, and a retaliatory Pakistani nuclear strike against Indian border forces. This sparks the disintegration and disappearance of Pakistan, and creation of an expanded Indian Confederation or Superstate."


THIS is not some Nostradamus indulging in apocalyptic visions. It’s just one of the many futuristic scenarios culled out from the "Asia 2025" study - a 147-page opus - conducted by the US under secretary of defence (policy). Written last year and distributed in limited circles, these documents show that US defence planners are now shifting their focus from Europe to Asia where they would wish to contain the threat of an economically-resurgent China. This may in future lead the US to seek closer alliance with India.

Rand Corporation’s Ashley Tellis, one of the 15 top-guns of American policymaking who took part in the study, told Outlook: "These are long-range perspective studies. Their chief virtue is that they help policymakers think about alternative futures which would otherwise escape them under day-to-day pressures."

Held at Naval War College, Newport, Rhode Island, between July 25 and August 4, 1999, the study was meant to explore what Asia might look like and what challenges it might pose to US defence and national security planners till the year 2025. The participants realised that the scenarios were speculative and cautioned that they were not predictive. "Rather they are highly imaginative descriptions of things."

An Asian diplomat in Bangkok added: "The remarkable thing is that India has become such a major factor in US defence policymaking." The nuclear tests by the Vajpayee government coupled with India’s emergence as a global IT superpower are bound to lead, sooner or later, to a radical rethink on US defence alliances. What this means is that the US will soon see India as a partner of choice.

Scenario 1
The Day India Ate Pakistan

The "New South Asian Order" scenario begins unfolding in the year 2010 with the imminent collapse of Pakistan, where ongoing economic crises, ethnic conflicts and the government’s helplessness on the law and order front render it increasingly unstable.

"Sindhis, Baluch and Pathans, who have long resented a Punjabi-dominated Pakistan, rebel. Mohajirs take to the streets. Islamic extremism adds to the instability in two forms - Taliban’s destabilisation efforts and the growing power of the Jamaat-e-Islami party," the study says.

In contrast, India successfully combines political decentralisation and economic reforms, generating rapid growth based on steep decline in population growth and a massive influx of foreign direct investment. Simultaneously, China’s economic resurgence and belligerence in East Asia brings the US closer to India. As Pakistan slides into anarchy, the US remains focused on North Asia with its forces deployed in Japan and South Korea.

By 2012, the Pakistani state is totally paralysed and loses control to Islamic extremists who infiltrate Kashmir. "India demands that Pakistan end the Islamic incursions.When Pakistan fails to respond, India moves into Azad Kashmir. Pakistan issues a nuclear ultimatum for Indian withdrawal from Azad Kashmir. The Chinese echo Pakistan’s ultimatum and begin mobilising along India’s eastern flank between Nepal and Bhutan to sever the Mizoram-Nagaland-Assam-Sikkim outpost of India, and threaten to use ‘all available means to stop Indian aggression’. The US urges restraint, and despite other flashpoints, the US sends naval forces to the Bay of Bengal and warns China to stay out," the study speculates.

Fearing that Pakistan would use its nuclear weapons, India launches an unsuccessful conventional strike on the former’s nuclear capabilities. Next, Pakistan launches nuclear strikes against Indian forces along their common border, driven by a "use it or lose it" rationale.

The US intelligence shows that Islamists in Pakistan are seizing the remaining Pakistani nuclear weapons. This goads the US to launch "a conventional strike on Pakistan’s nuclear sites".

"The extraordinary US action is also motivated by a desire to preempt a full-scale nuclear exchange between Pakistan and India. The US strikes by deploying deep penetration warheads launched from B-2 bombers to destroy Pakistan’s remaining nuclear forces. Faced with the reality of US-Indian cooperation, China backs off on the northeastern front," it adds.

"Total anarchy prevails in Pakistan. The Indian army moves in to restore order. As the country disintegrates, Pakistan’s regions accede incrementally to India. The Sindhi, Baluch, and North West Frontier Province parliaments vote to join an Indian-led confederation. An Indian Confederation emerges. Isolated Punjab is compelled to join the confederation and merges with its Indian counterpart to form a greater Punjab province within the confederation," the scenario goes.

"India’s central government grants extensive internal autonomy to the confederal units in exchange for control over their defence and foreign policies. Economically vibrant, the confederation is recognised as the regional hegemon and an economic magnet for trade and energy flows. The disappearance of Pakistan and the emergence of the Indian Confederation have a cascading effect across Central Asia. Afghanistan, is dismembered by its neighbouring states - Iran, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan - who move in to annex the territory controlled by their own ethnic groups."

The study says that Pakistan disappears by 2020, and the Indian Confederation emerges as a regional superstate. With Central Asia stabilising, energy pipelines from Central Asia, via Iran, to the energy hungry subcontinent are constructed. The East-West orientation of energy and commerce in Central Asia gives way to a new North-South orientation. Iran becomes the main transit country and Karachi the main port, to the East Asian markets.

It sees India becoming a "regional hegemon", and US planners are now urging the US defence department to anticipate a heightened Indian economic and strategic role in the region, raising the question: What does all this mean for the US presence in Diego Garcia and the potential for military cooperation with India?

In the end, the US discovers unexpected partners in India and Iran, who take on enhanced roles to protect sea-lanes for oil deliveries, reducing US responsibilities in the Indian Ocean and the Gulf. According to the study, China could respond to India’s emergence not by challenging it head on, but by increasing its activities in the Russian Far East and Indochina. It may, thus, challenge US interests in East Asia. It could, for instance, strengthen its position in Indochina and the Bay of Bengal, making Southeast Asia the future arena of conflict and competition.

And, if India does become a future US ally, what kind of development, regional and global, would be needed to cement these ties further? Tellis has a pithy list: "Collapsing Pakistan, aggressive China, threats to Middle East oil, deeper Indian-US economic engagement, high Indian growth rates, Indian willingness to participate in combined peace operations with the US."

Scenario 2
Hindi-Chini Bhai Bhai, At Last

Asecond scenario is the creation of a "New Sino-Indian Condominium." In the lead-up to this development, the US tries but fails to reach a strategic arrangement with India till 2010. India resents US inattention, which feeds the Indian national psychology of wanting to be seen as a great power.

"In a blatant act of self-assertion, India conducts a new round of nuclear tests in 2008, precluding any possibility of moving forward in a strategic relationship with the US. Growing anti-hegemonic sentiments stimulate India to accelerate its military buildup, shifting attention increasingly towards naval power," the study says.

As the US initiative towards India founders and eventually collapses after India’s nuclear tests, and as Indonesia’s fragility becomes more threatening, India and China initiate strategic discussions on regional cooperation to secure sea-lanes, control regional unrest, and common concerns.... The anti-hegemonic undertones of their discussion gradually surface as an explicit shared objective in displacing the US from the regions they seek to dominate.

Just how deep is US mistrust of China in matters relating to defence? Tellis says the mistrust is growing. And, how does this sit with US economic interests in China? He responds: "Conflict not yet reconciled, and will not be for a long time to come since China does not yet pose significant direct threat to the US or US interests."

In 2014, Indonesia fragments, leading to a slaughter of wealthy Chinese, as separatist rebels seize Indonesian gas and oil production. "Everybody except China and India want the US to act" to restore order, the study says.

In 2016, during the run-up to a US presidential election, a small band of Islamic militants, intent on hurting the US, fires a series of powerful missiles at a US destroyer and frigate passing through the narrow Lombok Straits near Indonesia. More than 200 US sailors and marines are killed. All presidential candidates pledge to bring American troops home and the US announces immediate cessation of operations and orders US ships to pull back.

In 2017, Chinese and Indian leaders intensify their discussion of ways to eject US presence from the South China Sea, where China wants to establish hegemony, and from the Indian Ocean, where India wishes to establish its supremacy. They tacitly agree to cooperate and decide on joint action.

India moves rapidly into the Straits of Malacca, and China takes control of the Lombok and Sunda Straits and reopens them to international traffic. China also occupies the disputed Spratly Islands and Natuna gasfields. India’s navy takes command of the Malacca Straits by cracking down on the pirates.

Most countries, including Japan, praise China and India for their joint action. Between 2017 and 2025, the US presence in the Pacific and Indian Oceans rolls back, and America’s allies reach a new accommodation with China and India.

"The tensions between China and India are not eliminated by their dividing much of Asia into hegemonic spheres. But for the time being, cooperation suits both perfectly..... The New Sino-Indian Order begins."

The study suggests that Sino-Indian cooperation might be impeded if the US establishes a working strategic dialogue and common geopolitical objectives with one partner. "India appears to be the more logical choice of the two," the study says.

US may need to rethink its strict non-proliferation policy, the study says, because some states like India which acquire nuclear weapons may actually contribute to the US national security goals. "The US may be faced with a trade-off between selective proliferation and regional presence," the study says.

Scenario 3
Their Chairman is Our Chairman

THIS scenario is hinged on the fact that China’s long-term goal is to dominate Asia and this doesn’t change whether China is strong or becomes relatively weak due to domestic economic and political troubles. Beijing is now determined to control Taiwan, the South China Sea, and the Senkaku islands (also claimed by Japan).

Well before 2025, China will have established effective control of Continental East Asia and peninsular Southeast Asia will fall under its thrall. From 2000-2015, China increases its military presence in the South China Sea, establishing several naval bases there. asean (Association of South East Asian Nations) fails to act collectively against Chinese expansionism.

The study, very clearly says, "Next, China temporarily and adroitly neutralises India by recognising Indian hegemony in South Asia and the Indian Ocean. China withdraws from its de facto bases on Burma’s Indian Ocean coast. In return, India tacitly recognises China’s hegemony over the South China Sea, further undermining Southeast Asia’s will to resist aggressive Chinese encroachment."

Another scenario, entitled "China Acts" sees a full-blown naval battle between China and the US, with the latter losing lives and aircraft. This happens after the US withdraws from Japan and South Korea by 2015 following ultra-nationalist protests in those countries against US presence, ending in a series of terrorist attacks against US forces. The damage is done and the American people support a pull out of their forces from East Asia. China takes a series of steps to cash in on the fact that the US has effectively no forward presence in Asia.

"India sees the US withdrawal as an opportunity to elevate its position in the Asian prestige hierarchy. India, which has been developing a blue water navy, accelerates its programme and is capable of out-of-area deployments. Like the Japanese, it also remains open to new defence relationships and an enhanced diplomatic role in regional security issues, particularly in the Persian Gulf," the study says. Here, India’s role is enhanced but it remains subordinate to China’s strategic interests.

What also emerges from these scenarios is the fact that India becomes crucial to the United States strategic thinking, and could emerge as a major regional power.

magazine | Sep 18, 2000
Participants

Chairman: S. Enders Wimbush, Hicks & Associates
Lt Col (USMC) Michael . Brooker, HQMC PP&O
Victor Cha, Georgetown University
Nicholas Eberstadt, American Enterprise Institute
Aaron Friedberg, Princeton University
Graham Fuller, RAND Corporation
Stuart Gold, Science Applications International Corporation
Capt (USN) Karl Hasslinger, OSD/Net Assessment
Juli A. MacDonald, Hicks & Associates
Rajan Menon, Lehigh University
Maj (USA) Thomas J. Moffat, National Ground Intelligence Center
Ross H. Munro, Center for Security Studies
Abram . Shulsky, Consultant
George K. Tanham, RAND Corporation
Ashley Tellis, RAND Corporation

[Hari Sud]

Thanks Ksmahesh

You are pretty quick in posting my scenario from UPIAsia.

I got tired of waiting for Vivek & Shankar. I decided to write my own.

It is a summary version; UPI Asia will not permit detailed version with cockpit conversion and policy discussions at the base.

Cheers


Hari Sud

[ksmahesh]

Dear Hari ji

Could you post the scenarios with detailed conversations here ?

I am sure BRF_bhailog would really appreciate scenarios about our western borders.

[kaangeya]

I am disappointed that the deep thinkers of RAND are little better than a scenario spinner from Toronto, ON. Ignorant as the TSP establishment may be, they are not fools.

[jamwal]

Hari sahab
Why missiles (ballistic and long range cruise) are missing from this scenario? To me it looks kind of far-fetched that Pakis will endanger their top fighter planes in pre-emptive strikes on Indian air bases so far from border when they can do the same by missiles.
Also with so many jihadis at their call, a few organised terror strikes on defence installations provides them with even more deniablity while hurting India strategically.

[Hari Sud]

Hello Jamwal

Good to hear from you.

This is just a scenerio for your amusement.

I believe that a missile flying from Sargodha to Delhi or Agra - 800 to 1000 miles will have accuracy problem. Pakistani missiles suffer from high CEP (Circular Error of Probability) problems. Only laser guided and GPS bombs do the job right.

Yes, Jamwal, go ahead and you write one scenario in which missiles of India & Pakistan face-off each other.

[vivek_ahuja]

When there was no time to write, all was available.
When there is nothing to do but to write, there is no electricity.
When there is electricity, there is no internet reception.
And when there are both, everyone is asleep.

That is the gist of the last ten days. In any case, time to continue..

-Vivek

[vivek_ahuja]

SASER
SOUTH OF D.B.O. ALONG THE SUPPLY ROUTE FROM GALWAN SECTOR
LADDAKH
DAY 4 + 0612 HRS (L)

South of the airstrip being pummelled, there sat small truck-mounted radars quietly tracking the incoming artillery shells as they flew on their projectile paths and slammed into Indian soil near the Karakoram pass. In a nearby command trailer, a small group of young officers punched in the target information data that then got distributed over to the battery of Smerch launchers deployed further down the valley. The launch barrels elevated on to a high zenith angle before stabilizing. Then followed two minutes of silence before the early morning sunlight was snubbed out by the salvo launch of the heavy MLRS rockets that raced through the sky and left behind a massive lingering dust cloud...

*********************

Far behind the LAC, the Chinese field gunners had little warning. The only warning they had was when the morning sunlight transformed into a shadow after a small series of “thud” noises. Every head jerked upwards to see a massive cloud of incoming cluster munitions heading straight down. In retrospect the warning was a farce: it was merely the announcement of the death sentence for the first Chinese battery to be snubbed out by the Indian counter battery amidst a field of small munitions explosions...

[vivek_ahuja]

THE “CITADEL” DEFENSIVE LINES
EAST OF DAULAT BEG OLDI (D.B.O.)
LADDAKH
DAY 4 + 0615 HRS (L)

The Milan crews heard small thuds of their own as their anti-tank missiles leaped out of their canisters and streaked eastwards. Opposite the missiles was a wall of Chinese vehicles slowly trampling over the gravel as they headed westwards to the airstrip. The line of sixteen T-99s was interspersed with a dozen ZBD IFVs. Behind that line was the second line of vehicles with the same vehicle types but inversed composition with the idea being that as the first wave was heavy on tanks, taking on the Indian armour and wiping it out, the second wave was heavy on IFVs and APCs, who would mop up the Indian infantry. The third wave was spread out into platoons rather than concentrated as a fist.

The Indian Milan gunners were of course aiming for the tanks in the only wave of vehicles they could see. And as far as they were concerned, this wave was as good as dead. Brigadier Adesara and his forward staff who saw the waves coming up behind were obviously more concerned even as they watched the first wave of Indian missiles streaking towards their targets...

The T-99 crews saw the threat, analyzed it and reacted to it. The first armour wave in front of the Indians suddenly disappeared behind a man made mist and smoke clouds. In addition, the entire formation now executed a copy book spread and increased the distances between their ranks. The incoming line of tanks and IFVs were now spread out and still discharging smoke until they entered gun range after a few seconds. The Indian gunners had precious seconds to retarget their missiles. Most of them managed to stick to their original targets, while others had to fix on to another vehicle or some ZBD. The eight Milan missiles slashed into the Chinese lines a fraction of a second later...

Adesara looked with delight as five T-99s went up as fireballs amidst the tank line and the burning hulks staggered to a stop before being gripped by secondary explosions as their full internal fuel and ammo lit up. Three ZBDs were also now nothing more than furiously burning chasses.

Now the Chinese and Indian tank guns entered range and in an ear shattering burst of fire the remaining eleven T-99s and four Indian T-72Ms in hull down positions opened up with sabot rounds. That first exchange itself killed another three T-99s and one ZBD and one T-72M while three Milan teams were killed as they attempted a second launch attempt from their trenches. The remaining shots slammed into the earth around the Citadel defensive positions and around the hull down T-72s. On both sides the remaining crews reloaded within seconds before a second burst of gunfire sounded out while the infantry and the ZBD crews watched in impotence. Rifles and light guns were of no use against steel protected by ERA in the practical sense...

Brigadier Adesara watched another two T-99s and another T-72 go up under a fireball before he picked up the R/T from his radiomen and called up Colonel Sudarshan and his BMP Squadron to the southeast.

The Chinese first wave was now closing to two kilometres and was well within the Indian side of the LAC. They were in fact four kilometres away from overrunning what was left of the DBO airstrip and the bulk of Adesara’s Brigade...

[vivek_ahuja]

SOUTHEAST OF THE CITADEL
EAST OF DAULAT BEG OLDI (D.B.O.)
LADDAKH
DAY 4 + 0625 HRS (L)

The eight BMP-II vehicles comprising two platoons of the BMPCG under Colonel Sudarshan had splashed across the frozen waters of the Chip-Chap River through a shallow ford and had raced off ahead a dust cloud raised by their tracks. The specialist anti-tank platoon of four modified BMPs had silently peeled off by now inside the massive dust cloud that was being raised by the IIs. Colonel Sudarshan was racing his BMP-IIs further southeast than where his anti-tank platoon had peeled off so that as far as the Chinese UAVs overhead were concerned, he was slicing across to the south of the Chinese advance in an attempt to pull back north and attack from the rear of the Chinese third wave platoons.

In reality, however, the entire exercise was a farce. And while the auto-cannons of his eight BMP-IIs were savaging the Chinese recon troops immediately at the border, making no attempt to mask their envelopment, the real claw of the pincer was already heading for the Chinese belly. But for all that the Chinese were reacting. The third wave platoons were already being diverted to the south from their east-west movement to face Sudarshan’s BMPs head on. Unfortunately, the real threat was on their right flank and aimed not at them...

The four vehicles of Sudarshan’s anti-tank platoon now staggered to a stop as their crews watched the lead tanks of the Chinese first wave hammering the Indian positions and moving east to west. The Indian crews watched from the south. In the chaos of the dust clouds and vast manoeuvring forces, these four vehicles operating in single units had failed to attract attention.

Now as the four vehicles deployed their weapons, and the single rectangular launch canister for the Nag missiles slewed into position, the Chinese first wave moved directly towards Adesara’s lines, oblivious of the threat around them. A few seconds later the first four Nag missiles slapped out into the thin mountain air and streaked upwards before initiating the dive into the target area. A second later another Nag streaked out, and each NAMICA vehicle went into a salvo mode thanks to the Nag’s fire-and-forget nature. Something the older generation anti-tank missiles did not have. It was yet another advantage to possess on one’s side when faced with higher numbers of the enemy.

The Chinese did not know their left flank to the south was threatened. The Indians knew that the former didn’t. Such was the importance of situational awareness. By the time the missile launches were detected by the crews of the Chinese vehicles on the southern fringe of the first wave, it was too late. Situational awareness cannot be lost on the modern battlefield because they ultimately decide the fate of battles...

Adesara and his men were jerked back from their view when the majority of the Chinese first wave suddenly disappeared into a series of fireballs and staggered to a stop in what was one jarring thunder. He wasn’t the only one who stood with gaping mouths as the single remaining T-99 and several ZBDs suddenly deployed smoke and began to retreat, engaging –or at least attempting to, the fast retreating NAMICA vehicles that were throwing smoke of their own...

That was the cue. Adesara turned and again picked up the R/T and ordered his remaining Brigade units to pull to the second defensive line to the west while the Chinese second wave manoeuvred around the burning hulks of the first wave and countered the threat Sudarshan posed to the south. He noticed however that of the four Indian T-72Ms under his command, only one was now pulling out of the revetment created for it. Adesara’s Brigade was beating the Chinese back, but was getting mauled itself in the process.

We cannot keep taking these losses without reinforcements...Adesara thought as he walked out calmly from his trench and walked westwards towards the second defensive line even as the infantry units around him hurriedly moved about. They were now moving close to the airstrip perimeter. If critical reinforcements and additional air support did not arrive in the next hour, DBO and his Brigade would be lost...

[asbchakri]

SOUTHEAST OF THE CITADEL
EAST OF DAULAT BEG OLDI (D.B.O.)
LADDAKH
DAY 4 + 0625 HRS (L)
...............

Excellent New Year gift Vivek saar, it would be still great if you could give us huge Post to cap off 2008 as we enter into a promising 2009

Sorry Rahul was about to do that u beat me to it. Thanks

[Rupesh]

Thanks Vivek... ..

Hope the chineese will get their butts wipped in the comming year..

[SGupta]

Vivek, Shankar and Hari enjoyed your scenarios in 2008.

Happy new year to all BR Fites.

Cheers,
Sanjay

[Chinmayanand]

Happy New Year to all BRFites !!!
Here is the download link to the updated scenario by Vivek :
http://ifile.it/xk1oi79

[asbchakri]

Happy New Year to all BRFites !!!
Here is the download link to the updated scenario by Vivek :
http://ifile.it/xk1oi79

Happy New year to all of u. We have entered a great year looking forward to PAD testing , ATV launching Agni 2 AT and a lot more. Exciting days ahead

[Gerard]

UPI Asia
Mumbai carnage Part 2: Israel joins India
By Hari Sud

Meanwhile, Pakistanis are unaware that Israeli jets, loaded with laser and global positioning system guided bombs have taken off from three Israeli airfields. The jets stick to the sea route and begin their 4,500-kilometer journey over the Red Sea, Gulf of Aden and the Indian Ocean and then turn north and climb to a high altitude to pass over the Iran-Pakistan border. Their anti-radar detection devices helps evade detection en-route and are refueled twice in the air on their five-hour journey.

[Hari Sud]

Thanks Gerard for posting the Part 2 of the Indo-US battle scenario.

It is a scenario only.

Part 3 will come next week. It is US helps to denuclearize Pakistan.

Cheers

[vivek_ahuja]

SOUTHEAST OF THE CITADEL
EAST OF DAULAT BEG OLDI (D.B.O.)
LADDAKH
DAY 4 + 0700 HRS (L)

“Here they come.”

Colonel Sudarshan lowered his binoculars as he stood on top of the turret of his lead BMP. He looked around. The eight BMP-IIs under his command were still there, still in formation. They were parked amongst the vacant defensive positions of a Chinese Border Guards company headquarters. That company was still around: the dead ones at least...

The eight BMP-IIs under Sudarshan had just completed their diversionary movement to cover the deployment and attacks of the NAMICA platoon to their northwest. That attack had been successful, as Sudarshan could tell based on the dozen odd thick black smoke columns rising into the blue morning sky to his northwest and behind him. But now his anti-tank platoon was pulling out, and so were Brigadier Adesara’s infantry Battalions and what remained of the T-72 tank platoon covering the DBO airfield. In the meantime the Chinese second wave was skirting around the burning hulks of their first wave by going around the northern flank: they had been warned about the severe anti-tank threat posed by the Indians on their southern flank by their UAV observers.

But for all that, Sudarshan was not having a free reign to the south. His IFV force was now about to be engaged by the scattered groups of Chinese ZBDs that made up the Chinese third wave. And there were a hell of a lot of them... Sudarshan reminded himself as he saw the distant dust clouds approaching. To that end he had ordered a stop to his south-eastern advance that had slid into the Chinese southern flank like a knife entering an enemy’s stomach. His force had mauled the defending Chinese Border Guard positions south of the Chip-Chap River and was now standing beyond the LAC.

Not for long though...Col. Sudarshan reminded himself. The approaching dust clouds were now less than four kilometres away and were splashing across the frozen Chip-Chap River much in the same way the Indian BMPs had done not so long ago.

Sudarshan brought up his R/T mouthpiece attached to his headset and ordered his driver and gunner to swing back to life before climbing back down the hatch into the commander’s position and closing the hatch behind him. His other vehicle commanders did the same seconds later and the two platoons of BMPs then executed a reverse move up the small wall like mound that the Chinese BG Company HQ had been using as cover. Once on the reverse slope, they stopped with a jerk and moved ever so slightly until each hull was more or less covered by that rock and gravel mound except for the small cannon and turret emplacement on top. The soviet designers of the BMP had placed a lot of attention to making the vehicle low profile, even at the cost of top-plate armour protection. Sometimes this helped when other times the low armour was a curse. It was anybody’s guess which would prove important now.

With the snow all around them melted or trampled on by the tracks of their vehicles, and the cold air contrasting around their hot vehicle engines even after the sun had come up from beyond the high mountains, all eight Indian crews had no illusions of remaining undetected. In fact, the movement of the twelve ZBDs manoeuvring east of them showed clearly that the Chinese commander knew where Sudarshan was and what he was up to. With both sides almost evenly matched, it was to be a knife edge battle...

A few minutes later the ZBDs formed up in a line and began advancing towards the line of hull down Indian BMP-IIs. Sudarshan watched and waited. He wondered on the fact that had this particular vehicle’s commander hadn’t fallen sick with pulmonary oedema a day before, he might have been watching this particular battle alongside Adesara in his HQ, as he was supposed to do. But damn it, this is where I should be anyway! He thought as he saw the first clear feature of the ZBD through the commander’s optics:

“Gunner, target ZBD, two degrees left offset. Range: three kilometres!”

The cannon turret moved slightly to the left and then stabilized before the gunner shouted out:

“Target identified!”

“Fire!”

[vivek_ahuja]

LEH
DAY 4 + 0720 HRS (L)

The screen lit up with a line of tracer fire heading west to east seconds before a similar line of tracers headed east to west. There were several flashes of light as the camera adjusted contrast to show three flaming ZBDs staggering to a halt along with two Indian BMPs blowing up in fireballs. Now tracers were flying in all directions as both sides engaged in a desperate battle for supremacy.

“Which unit is this?” the Divisional GOC asked his GSO-1 standing next to him in the Divisional UAV command centre.

“Seems like elements of the 10TH Mechanized Infantry, sir.” The GSO-1 replied without turning away from the screen showing the UAV feed.

“Sudarshan’s chaps?”

“Yes sir. We couldn’t induct the entire force in there before this thing blew up. Sudarshan is out there at DBO along with his HQ group and three BMP platoons that made up his advance element. The rest of the 10TH Mechanized Infantry Regiment is still driving up from Saser and approaching DBO through Chaco, but they are taking some fire from Chinese artillery under directions of their UAVs, watching our entire movement as we are watching theirs.” The GSO-1 said. The Major-General shook his head before speaking:

“Damn those buggers. Have the Air Force chaps been able to nail down those Chinese UAVs yet?”

“Not yet, sir. They say they are working on it. Seems these UAVs are too small for radar detection and there are not enough fighters to do a visual search. The Liaison Officer says they are trying something new today that might work.”

“Whatever it is, we better hope it works. Otherwise Adesara and his boys are going to have to fight an uneven battle because his reinforcements won’t make be able to make their way to him. What’s the good news?” the General continued.

“Yes. The Chinese artillery is taking a beating. Our counter-artillery units are making a killing...so far. It won’t be long before the Chinese bring in their own counter artillery systems into play, but at least we are knocking out a good number of Chinese field batteries that were so far hammering our boys all along the front. Also, with the S-300 belt down in the southern sectors, the Air Force says they are starting their interdiction sorties against the Chinese logistics. That’s good news for everybody south of Adesara’s sector.” The GSO-1 said.

This time the General did not answer as the screen before them showed four remaining BMPs under Sudarshan’s command deploying smoke and reversing out of their revetments while continuing to exchange fire with the seven ZBDs now less than a kilometre away. The unit was under threat of being flanked by other ZBD groups that were charging in from the flanks and Sudarshan had seen the threat approaching. He was denying the Chinese commander that opportunity by initiating a tactical withdrawal as he did so he was also buying time for his anti-tank platoon two kilometres behind him to regain cohesiveness and redeploy and reload the Nag anti tank missiles.

It was a running and desperate fight between the gunners from both sides that were now nearing point blank range. It seemed only a minute between Sudarshan reversing his forces from their revetments before the first Chinese ZBD raced over that gravel wall and slammed through the positions vacated by the Indians. A few seconds later the ZBDs were passing by the burning hulks of the BMPs destroyed by their gunfire. All through the way the turrets were letting loose streams of tracers without pause...

The Divisional Commander turned away from the screen and looked at his GSO-1:

“We are losing this battle. Sudarshan is getting overrun and Adesara is fighting off waves of tanks with Infantry and a handful of tanks. Get over to the Air Force guys and tell them that Chinese S-300 threat or not, we need priority air support over at DBO or we are going to lose the Karakoram pass by the end of the day today...”

[Chinmayanand]

Updated Scenario in pdf

[Avinandan]

ZBDs have 100mm gun whereas BMP-II have 30mm Cannon. Then why only tracers were fired from ZBDs.
I personally feel that there is no way by which the BMP-II could have survived against scores of ZBDs in the above scenario.
Vivek and other Senior Guys,
Could you please enlighten if I am missing some thing.

Thanks in advance.

[niran]

Chinese ZBDs were the ones in open attacking, Indians BMPs were Hull down.
to kill them accurate fire is needed,hence 4 out of 8 BMPs survived. it says only tracers
were observed, it do not mean only tracers were fired.

[Hari Sud]

Very good Vivek; The scenario is doing well.

I understand from Shankar that he will begin Indo-Pak scenario as soon as Vivek's Indo-China scenario reaches a final bit of fight.

I am also looking forward to Shankar's new scenario.

[kancha]

^ avinandan

Tracers are used for ranging so that when the main cannons fire, ammo is not wasted and probability of a first round hit is more.

[Hari Sud]

Hello Guys

Part - 3 of my Indo-Pak battle scenario has been published.

Here is the link

http://www.upiasia.com/Security/2009/01 ... ains/4421/


Cheers

[anand_sankar]

Hello,

I am very new to this forum. Stumbled upon Vivek Ahuja's posts and very hooked to his writing. Excellently researched.

The first thing I did was download the scenario posted as a .doc on the first page. It ends quite tantalisingly poised at page 231. Can someone help me find the remaining part?? I checked the previous scenario threads and can not find it there either.

Regards.

[Nikhil T]

Hello Guys

Part - 3 of my Indo-Pak battle scenario has been published.

Here is the link

http://www.upiasia.com/Security/2009/01 ... ains/4421/

Fast paced, Hari ! Good work, though like all jingos I would like more Pak birds down!

[Ravishankar]

Hello Guys

Part - 3 of my Indo-Pak battle scenario has been published.

Here is the link

http://www.upiasia.com/Security/2009/01 ... ains/4421/


Cheers

Excellent piece of work sir but I thought the third part was suppose to be "Part III scenario – United States facilitates denuclearization of Pakistan"

[Hari Sud]

Ravishankar

Thanks.

The original publisher of above scenarios is UPI, which is a news gathering organization together with editors, reporters, columinsts.

The above change was made by them.

I believe US as a party may not be sitting well with them, hence they changed the title but not the contents.

While writing this scenario, I had assumed that US will not directly get involved in de-nuclearization of Pakistan, but help. Israel will get directly involved.

Upcoming scenario 4 & 5 have direct US role in preventing complete destruction of Pakistani Army.

Wait until next Friday.

Hari Sud

[vila]

I thought this was " Possible Indian Military Scenarios" thread

[Ravishankar]

Thanks Hari, looking forward for part 4 & 5.

[Mihir.D]

vivek,

when is the next post coming buddy ? and wot abt ur book ? do have a date ?

Cheers.

[p_saggu]

Hari great work!
But the action on the air turf is a little disjointed I feel. There will probably be a consistent air assault on pakistan by IAF which will fight a war of attrition, degrading their Air, Land and sea power, while some parts of the IAF will make the deep penetration strikes DAY and NIGHT. Do mention of the attrition part of the air war.

At the end of 2-3 days pakistan will have lost most of its top line fighters - the F-16s and the ageing updated ROSE Mirages and be left with the antiquated bulk that makes up its Air Force. These will be dealt with in short order by the IAF. Hell, a lot of those F-7s which are the bulk of the fighters they have, don't have Radars on them! The A-5s are antiques configured for dumb gravity ground bombing.

Would you identify the six nuclear sites where the Pakistanis store their nukes - at least here on BRF? Pleeeeeeeeeese

[Hari Sud]

Hello guys

Pakistani air force is a competent military machine. India may prevail but they will inflict damage on IAF.

I have no idea where the Paki nuclear weapons are stored. Colin Powell said the same seven years back. That is why US asked Pakistan to install PAL locks to prevent unauthorized possession of these. Also the locks have transmitter which transmits signal when anybody touches it. US knows as soon as anybody removes them from storage.

But a lot of previous debate has stated these weapons may be stored at the large military cum air bases in ready for assembly format. These bases could be Sargodha, Chakalala, Rahimyar Khan, Karachi/ Hyderabad, Chughai 1 & 2.

[Rahul M]

quetta is one of the most likely places.

[karadi]

Can't wait for the next installment!

kaRadi

[Hari Sud]

Dear readers

I post a link for you to read the Part 4 of Indo-Pak battle scenario.

http://www.upiasia.com/Security/2009/01 ... _war/4962/


Enjoy.

Remember, it is a scenario not the real thing.

[Chinmayanand]

Dear readers

I post a link for you to read the Part 4 of Indo-Pak battle scenario.

http://www.upiasia.com/Security/2009/01 ... _war/4962/


Enjoy.

Remember, it is a scenario not the real thing.

You missed the conventional warhead loaded Prithvis and Agnis in your scenario ...

[Hari Sud]

Durgesh

Yes, Prithvi & Agni action is in Scenario 5.

Wait until tomorrow or day after.

As soon as return missile hit is received by Pakistan, they sue for peace. US did not let them touch the nuclear button.

Cheers

[p_saggu]

Well here is one site which is know to have handled Pak's Nukes.
Dalbandin is a small airforce base with a 1.6 Km runway located very cosily between the two sites where the Pakistanis "tested" their own Failed weapons design and the One chinese design.
This is the place where the Pakistanis are known to have kept several weapons in a disassembled state for quite a few years. The location is quite far from any where in India and gives a measure of security to the pakistanis against the IAF