Indian Interests

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 11 Jun 2009 21:43

Guys,

We need to talk about either:

1) A relapse within the Indian policy making system (what else is new), or
2) Pakistan as a base for terrorists - and Indo-US "policy" as it relates to this topic.

There is a thread for the prior - has been there for ages. We know that India has never had a (functioning?) strategic group within GoI. BD/SL/Nepal/Myanmar/etc were very predictable - it would have been a very pleasant surprise if any of them would gone well.

More l8r on a reply to ST ji.

RayC · Post by **RayC** » 11 Jun 2009 21:47

Little that I know, there is NO interests. Only bumbling and sailing along the silvery moon!

There is no strategic insight at the political level, as far as I know!

And I would be the happiest I am am wrong!!

It is all FRCS.

ShauryaT · Post by **ShauryaT** » 11 Jun 2009 22:02

RayC wrote:Little that I know, there is NO interests. Only bumbling and sailing along the silvery moon!

There is no strategic insight at the political level, as far as I know!

And I would be the happiest I am am wrong!!

It is all FRCS.

Do not know what FRCS means. However, grouping "all" political level folks in one single block is not accurate. Strategic insight at the political level is a result of understanding, who we are and where we should go, which results from the first question - who we are. Until, we have consensus on this question, we will keep bumbling. Please see the post from me above on the issue, written by Nitin Pai.

We are members of the human race, want world peace and economic progress - these alone, constitute a definition, not! for the world we live in.

Pulikeshi · Post by **Pulikeshi** » 11 Jun 2009 22:18

narayanan wrote:If Pakistan is REALLY crumbling, why not swiftly accept LOC=IB and proclaim Peace and Goodwill? This removes the last excuse for the Pakistan Army to claim that it needs to be maintain strength on the East. They will have nothing to occupy themselves, except to kill each other. They will have to pretend to be fighting the Taliban, and thus speed up the collapse.

The LOC is by definition guardable, so it keeps the Pakis inside Pakistan as "IPDs".

I agree with your slogan of bringing peace to TSP, but the rest does not make logical sense.
It will be impossible for India to keep Pakis inside TSP in the crumbling scenario.

That is, if TSP is crumbling, LOC/IB will not prevent externalities, especially to India.
Yet fear of this externality seems to be at the root of the current GOI policy for the region.

TSP army does not exist to defend against India - they have proven their incompetence on that front time and again.
Heck they cannot defend against Afghanistan, Iran, taliban, warring tribes, nannies, babes in the wood, so why do they exist?
TSP army exists only to leech off the poor hungry masses in TSP and beg for bakshis from the powerful.
In this they are following their ancestors when they GUBO to outside powers and screw their own people!

As with any unsustainable enterprise their existence depends on their ability to find cheap capital from interested sources.
The way to destory the TSP ar roots is to prevent the flow of cheap capital! Not more concessions.

India either is or is not a regional power - subaltern thinking will not help it get there!

PS: If an elephant wants to pretend to be a mouse, no one will believe it! Size matters!

putnanja · Post by **putnanja** » 12 Jun 2009 02:48

Govt pulls up IAF top brass after China protests remarks

Beijing has objected to public statements made by the IAF top brass justifying the induction of frontline Su-30 MKI fighters at the Tezpur base to counter Chinese troops near Arunachal Pradesh and bracketing China in the troubled states category of Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nepal and Sri Lanka. Following this, Defence Minister A K Antony has pulled up the IAF and asked Air Chief Marshal P V Naik, the new Chief of Air Staff who took over from Fali Major, to ensure that none of his commanders speak out of turn on India’s neighbours or Indian military capability.

...
On the sidelines of the Shangri La security dialogue in Singapore between May 29-31, Lt Gen Ma Xiaotian, Deputy Chief of General Staff, Peoples Liberation Army, asked Indian delegates including Defence Secretary Vijay Singh and Admiral Sureesh Mehta on the reasons for this sabre-rattling by Indian commanders.
...

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 12 Jun 2009 03:56

shiv wrote:India just does not have the will power to pour money into becoming a superpower military state challenging the US given that it has x00 million people without clean water supply, a similar huge number without homes, basic healthcare and sanitation.

India is "weak" by a lot of standards. the toss up is between spending India's wealth on building up the military to 5 times its current strength to stare everyone down while ignoring all those hundreds of millions - who may then revolt. or doing what India is doing now. That is, admitting its weaknesses and playing the few cards it has.

We need to look at this as a possible explanation of what we are seeing.

ShauryaT wrote: Yes, however, the facts and deductions from them need to be accurate. If one cares to look into the budget and see what India spends on subsidies and amounts wasted. The amounts that can be saved through fiscal reforms. The number of inefficient and unprofitable business units that the central and state governments run and/or fund. The loss to the nation due to the few monopolies, who do turn a profit. The volume of economic reforms that can be undertaken to stimulate growth. Only a blind and/or corrupt person will make the arguments, that we have heard made so many times by many of our leaders.

Mao type of militarization at the cost of the nation, is not the automatic answer to "better" security. There are better ways.

Even after the massacre of 70+ million by Mao (by some estimates) and Deng Xiaoping's Tiananmen, at least a section of the chinese people, seem to have accepted the diktats of the CPC - in exchange for being materially better off. How many Chinese will trade this material well being in exchange for the freedom's we enjoy, is some food for thought.

Chiron wrote: Historically it is seen that Indics tends to prosper if left alone.. And they prosper harmoniously with respect to surrounding. In spite of all the 8-9% growth, Bhaarat still is the greenest country in the world.

I guess, Bhaarat has no option but to grow strong economically. We do not need Mao who overthrows the existing system. We need Shankaracharya who reinstates the already standardised system which has evolved according to needs and conditions of our country.

There are some countries, who can afford to have either only militaristic (like NoKo, TSP) or only economic (Scandinavian countries) outlook. Countries like China, India, Iran cannot afford to have single minded outlook. Indeed, it is a knife-walk.

And given the diversity of our civilization, the subsidies are essential for public appeasement. We have to either appease them all or discipline them all, in current socio-political set-up.

The American dream has penetrated the minds of many Indians and most importantly Indian policy makers who wish to achieve western styled development in India at all costs. Rather only having a lifestyle comparable to the one in West is considered as developed lifestyle. The fact of the matter is that the traditional Bhaaratiya lifestyle is much more eco-friendly and natural and beneficial for people living in Bhaarat and is nothing short of "developed" life-style.

I guess, this is the price we pay for heterogeneity and diversity. Perhaps our own structural factors does not allow us to develop rapidly in Western style. We can develop very rapidly if we rediscover our way of life and can do so in extremely sustainable manner. Village empowerment is single biggest thing that can not only place India ahead of all nations, but also the decentralized way of life and thought has protected us from extinction in past thousand years of Abrahamic dominance. This is what MKG understood and this is what NaMo achieved in Gujarat.

Decentralization coupled with Dhaarmic sustainability in terms of agriculture, lifestyle and values towards self, family, and Bhaarat can make us strong in our own terms.

Bhaarat and Bhaaratiya civilization is being forced to play on the strengths of Abrahamic (or Western) memes and to follow and obey Abrahamic (or Western) standards of strength, development and lifestyle.

I wish Nitish Kumar does to Bihar what NaMo did with Gujarat. If Nitish facilitates the beginning of the rise of Indic and Dhaarmic Magadha through the means of village empowerment, only then I guess India will start gathering the clout to challenge the influence of the West and assert it self.

India doesn't need to compromise on its educational/health/farming subsidies or environment to grow at 8-10% rate. All it needs is proper vision by leadership, efficient management to execute the plans, and honest (not only corrupt-free, but also willing) administration staff.

I present my proposal for a subsidy program that not only stimulates the economy but also eradicates poverty.

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			Program Cost			
Population		1,130,000,000	113	Crores		
						
Under Poverty Line	40%	452,000,000	45	Crores		
						
Age > 60 Yrs	20%	90,400,000	9	Crores		
Age <18 Yrs	30%	135,600,000	14	Crores		
						
Education						
Fee Vouchers (Kids can go to any school they are interested in with this coupon)	 12 x 250	3,000	40,680	Crores		
Mid-day Meals (Akshayapatra - Rs 1500 per one meal per year)	2 x 1500	3,000	40,680	Crores		
Health Insurance (Rs 100 per month x 12 months)	12 x 100	1,200	16,272	Crores		
						
TOTAL Subsidy for Children			97,632	Crores	21.70	$B
						
Farming						
Farm  insurance up to 4 Acres x 12000 Rs per acre	1 Cr Farming Families		48,000	Crores	10.67	$B
Govt will get 30-40% of crop production on the insured land to FCI godowns						
						
Social Security						
Health Insurance (Rs 150 per month x 12 months)		1,800	16,272	Crores	3.62	$B
Food Security (Akshayapatra - Rs 1500 x 2 meals per day)		3,000	40,680	Crores	9.04	$B
						
Self-Employment for SC/ST and Tribal people (becomes social forestry program)			60,000	Crores	13.33	$B
Allocate 5 Acres of forest land for every able family (1 Cr families = 5 Crore Acres)						
Ensure that the families are given Rs 12000 per acre for the first 5 years						
Encourage the families to grow commercial crops such as Jatropha, Fruit orchids, Palm-oil etc						
						
						
GRAND TOTAL (per YEAR)			262,584	Crores	58.35	$B
We can guarantee that 75% of Indian poverty is be eradicated within 10 years

Raja Ram · Post by **Raja Ram** » 12 Jun 2009 10:14

In a recent talk that I gave to a small private group of friends on national security, there was an interesting debate on the internal security situation. Some pertinent views that came up were:

India's demographic dividend - A huge population of young, increasingly educated, in an fast urabanising environment, wants a better life away from agriculture based economy, largely living in rural areas. To add to this the growth is uneven with vast pockets of deprived areas -seen as fertile breeding ground for naxalism and and evangelical subalternism. So is the demographic dividend an oppoetunity or a threat? Kalam's thinking on this focused around three points PURA, revival of joint family system and emotional connectivity to make this opportunity happen and avoid threats.

Social Engineering - By media, by evangelists, by politicians - can this be again a double edged sword? An increasingly well informed population, increasing spending power, in your face consumerism that cannot be checked. It has created needs amongst greater numbers, and created wants amongst greater numbers - Is there enough opportunities created in rural areas so that they can be satisfied?

Security Infrastructure - Policing is below par, techniques and equipment are below par even in relatively strong economic states, need for balancing the need for security laws with protection against HR abuses.

All these are often not very glamorous topics when it comes to national interests and security. What I found in this group of non BRF types was that there was an awareness that something was wrong but not what was actually wrong in the state of India. Their views were a reflection of what mass media presents, no one knew any better. The only thing they knew was that media was also not trustworthy but they were better than politicians.

These interactions are very educative to me. Conditioned by interactions like the ones that we have here in BRF, I had drifted away into the realm of "specialists" and cut off from how average Ram/Rahim/Robert think. I think it is important to keep this perspective. For the leaders we have and the choices that they make are probably shaped by these very same influences.

RamaY - I would be very interested in some of the thinking behind the ideas you have indicated here for subsidies. If it is not too much of a problem sir, can you please share the thinking behind these suggestions over a mail. you can send it rajaram underscore mk at the rate of yahoo dot com. Thanks

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 12 Jun 2009 18:49

Raja Ram wrote:RamaY - I would be very interested in some of the thinking behind the ideas you have indicated here for subsidies. If it is not too much of a problem sir, can you please share the thinking behind these suggestions over a mail. you can send it rajaram underscore mk at the rate of yahoo dot com. Thanks

RajaRamji, Shall write an email over the weekend. Thanks

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 12 Jun 2009 18:59

RamaY wrote:

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Fee Vouchers (Kids can go to any school they are interested in with this coupon)	 12 x 250	3,000	40,680 Crores

RamaY ji,
that has been the bedrock of my thinking!

Will elaborate on this some time in the future!

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 13 Jun 2009 00:08

RamaY, Can you tailor it for a state by state approach say for Southern states in the begining? Does this need Central assitance?

ShauryaT · Post by **ShauryaT** » 13 Jun 2009 00:19

ramana wrote:RamaY, Can you tailor it for a state by state approach say for Southern states in the begining? Does this need Central assitance?

RamaY: Since you are taking requests, also factor in how existing subsidies can be reused in the way you describe it and still have many 000's of crores left over for security and other infrastructure needs - thereby accomplishing what you are trying to do - without raising taxes. If you can show, how effective "net" taxes can be reduced while at it .... I will buy you a beer for all the hard work and admins got to preserve that post for eternity and show it to one and all - Why this entire argument of Security Vs. Economics is a big farce!

brihaspati · Post by **brihaspati** » 13 Jun 2009 00:50

RamaYji,
let us assume that you are the finance minister of a "shadow" cabinet. Can you undertake to place a budget for the whole of India? In fact this could be good practice for the future.

Rahul Mehta · Post by **Rahul Mehta** » 13 Jun 2009 05:15

RamaY,

1. How many teachers do you have per students in your proposed scheme?

2. How do you plan to ensure that they actually teach and not just waste away time?

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 15 Jun 2009 00:24

OK! Here we go!

The objective of this exercise is to separate the annual budget preparation process from the national development program that I am proposing.

I took 2008-09 budgets as baseline and the first table shows the current revenue receipts and budget allocations.

The interest payment account takes nearly 30% of the revenue receipts and it works out to be 10% of our national debt. At 8% interest rate we will be able to clear the national debt in 50 years. This amount also includes $2b annual allocation for early payment of debts, and I presume this is a reasonable sum to clear of the external debts in a meaningful timeframe.

I split my budget allocation into two parts. The first part is an attempt at balancing the annual budget with optimal allocations to key sectors. The major item that I removed from this list is Grants/Aid/Contribution to states. I plan to cover this separately under the national development program.

I presented a separate section on National Development Program, with a clear time table for 10 years, to cover the fundamental infrastructure, and social development. The purpose of this program is to bring at least 75% of population currently living below the poverty line into the national tax payer base. The annual cost of the NDP is estimated to be 320,632 crores per year. To get the total allocation for a specific item over the life time of 10 years multiply the number with 10.

A mere 5% growth in revenue receipts (translates into 5% annual GDP growth) would take the total annual receipts from current 737,322 crores to nearly 1200,000 crores in 10 years thus bringing a proportional increase in key sector allocations.

I will explain my thoughts on each NDP item in following posts

Current Budget

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TOTAL-REVENUE RECEIPTS (Includes Railways)          737,322 
Budget Deficit                                     (232,016)

                                                   (969,338)
Organs of State                                      (4,619)
Interest Payments                                  (226,111)
Administrative Services (includes police & Jails)   (33,593)
Pensions and Miscellaneous General Services         (48,352)
Defence Services                                    (90,536)
Fiscal Services	                                   (6,732)
SOCIAL SERVICES (Includes Education, Health)        (87,087)
Agriculture and Allied Activities                   (98,077)
Rural Development                                   (34,671)
Special Areas Programmes (NE, MP LADS)              (14,363)
Irrigation and Flood Control                           (651)
Energy                                              (12,305)
Industry and Minerals                               (18,861)
Transport (Includes Railways)                      (121,483)
Communications                                      (13,671)
Science, Technology and Environment                 (11,707)
General Economic Services                            (7,266)
GRANTS-IN-AID AND CONTRIBUTIONS to states          (139,252)

Proposed Budget

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TOTAL-REVENUE RECEIPTS (Includes Railways)                       737,322 
Budget Deficit                                                   (11,446)

Allocations for a Balanced Budget
Interest Payments                                               (226,111)
Pensions & Misc                                                  (60,000)
Defence Services                                                (100,000)
Central Police, Courts, Jails (30,000 + 10000 + 10000)           (50,000)
Railway Budget                                                   (95,306)
Organs of State                                                   (4,619)
Fiscal Services	                                                (6,732)
Primary Education (6 Lakhs x 400000)                             (24,000)
Higher Education (100 Univ x 250 Crs)                            (25,000)
Social Security (9 Cr people > 65 yrs and under poverty line)    (57,000)
Primary Health                                                   (10,000)
Secondary Health                                                 (10,000)
Roads & Buildings                                                (10,000)
Research & Development (DRDO and Others)                         (20,000)
Space Research & Space Defence                                   (10,000)
National Emergency Response                                      (10,000)
Forests & Fisheries                                              (10,000)
Special Areas & Programms (NE, JK, West Bengal)                  (20,000)

National Development Program

Code: Select all

National Development Program (10 Year Program)                  (330,632)
Infrastructure	
Roads (3000KM per year x 4Lane)                                  (20,000)
Ports (15 Ports in 10 years)                                      (5,000)
Freight Corridars (Rail/Road)                                    (15,000)
Airports                                                          (5,000)
Communications (Fiber Optics, Command Centers Etc)               (10,000)
Energy (R&D, Transition to renewable sources, power grid)        (10,000)
Irrigation Systems (20 projects in 10 yrs)                       (10,000)
Watersheds and River cleaning program                            (10,000)
	
National Defence Program                                         (20,000)
Aircraft Carriers	
NMDP Phases II and III	
BMD	
AWACs	
SSNs	

Education	
Primary Education                                                (97,632)
National Literacy Program                                        (10,000)

Land Reforms & Farm Subsidies	
Farm Subsidies 12000 per acre upto 4 acres                       (48,000)
Social Forestry and Development (1cr familiesx5acres)            (60,000)

National ID Program (100 croresx1000Rs for card/systems/infra)   (10,000)


Funding the NDP	
Onetime Tax 15% of Blackmoney 354000 crores                       53,100 
Improved Tax Collection (15% GDP $1.8TN) per year
1190,000 crores minus current receipts 732,322                   457,428

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 15 Jun 2009 03:22

Israel sets terms for Palestinian state

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has announced he will back a Palestinian state - but only if it is completely demilitarised.

He said a Palestinian state must have no army, no control of its air space and no way of smuggling in weapons.

Interesting.

Can this impact Kashmir?

IF LoC = IB, can India demand something similar (I had mentioned similar thinking a week or two ago)?

satya · Post by **satya** » 15 Jun 2009 03:36

NRaojee
In one word : YES .

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 15 Jun 2009 04:37

satya wrote:NRaojee
In one word : YES .

Just BTW, ABC News reported that the Israeli PM was "under pressure" from the Obama Admin.

.

PM Nat went from nothing to agreeing to a two state region. Obama's comment/reaction: a move in the right direction. Now we should see more arm twisting.

Point being I am very sure India is going through this very stage. HomeMin has already stated that Kashmir security should be a local/state issue. IA needs to get out of Kashmir, exception: only patrol the border.

That hammer is coming next month. A big smile and plenty of nice words, an elephant ride, bindi, perhaps even a sari...........

Indian lists need to be on the type writer ........................ unless GoI has computers and printers.

pgbhat · Post by **pgbhat** » 15 Jun 2009 12:06

In India, a mandate and a test

"The government, not to put too fine a point on it, is broke," Abhijit Banerjee, a professor of economics at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, in Cambridge, and Raghuram Rajan, professor of finance at the University of Chicago, wrote in a recent column in The Indian Express, an English-language daily. "Revenue growth has slowed with the global recession, but the commitments made in the expectation of continuing rapid growth remain with it."

Social-welfare schemes that the UPA launched in its previous term – such as the National Rural Employment Guarantee Act, a landmark antipoverty project that promises every rural family at least 100 days of employment; and an expensive loan waiver scheme for indebted farmers – have burned a huge hole in India's treasury. India's fiscal deficit has swollen to nearly 8 percent of GDP. The fiscal deficit has been deepened by two stimulus packages the UPA announced in its previous term.

But the UPA is popular largely because it splurged on social welfare – it nearly tripled government spending on rural development from $1.13 billion in 2003-04 to $2.87 billion in 2008-09 – and it cannot afford to halt its social spending drive, point out Mr. Bannerjee and Mr. Rajan. More than three-quarters of India's 1.1 billion people, bypassed by the economic boom, survive on less than $2 a day.

"If this election was about anything, it was about hope and trust," they wrote. "People voted for those who they thought were at least trying to deliver something real, and mostly against the kind of shrill populism that promises the moon and delivers little or nothing."

"China is fishing in troubled waters," says G. Parthasarthy, a New Delhi-based foreign-policy expert. "This is very worrisome for India."

"India faces many security challenges both within and without," says Mr. Parthasarathy. "But I am glad there will now be a stable government in New Delhi to handle [these] situations."

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 16 Jun 2009 08:18

Israel’s Foreign Minister Cozies Up to Moscow

“Would you mind speaking without an interpreter?” Vladimir V. Putin asked, and his visitor, Avigdor Lieberman, Israel’s new foreign minister, responded that he could not imagine doing business any other way. The two then chatted in Russian, as if their meeting this month were a homecoming for a local boy who made good.

A very interesting read.

Viv Sreenivasan · Post by **Viv Sreenivasan** » 16 Jun 2009 08:50

Regional variation is a huge problem in India. Comparing a state like Gujarat against a state like Uttar Pradesh is like comparing Taiwan to Zimbabwe. Such is the gap in economic development. This again is another factor in fuelling naxalism as the gaps between haves and have nots in society widens.

ShauryaT · Post by **ShauryaT** » 17 Jun 2009 04:04

NRao wrote:
IF LoC = IB, can India demand something similar (I had mentioned similar thinking a week or two ago)?

And why is that in Indian interests?

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 17 Jun 2009 04:18

ShauryaT wrote:
NRao wrote:
IF LoC = IB, can India demand something similar (I had mentioned similar thinking a week or two ago)?
And why is that in Indian interests?

I am not sure. But, what I think is about to happen is a Obama thought solution of some sort. What is this solution I am not sure, but LoC=IB comes the closest I can think of.

Whatever the "solution", the question about what India should get in "return" will remain.

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 17 Jun 2009 04:19

My follow-up post...

Currently our union budget excludes the states’ share of 178,765 crore from the tax revenues. This is separate from the Grants/Aid/Contribution to states I removed from my budgetary allocations.

The purpose of the National Development Program is to bring all national development and poverty eradication schemes under one organization structure. This is to ensure the standardization of human development indices across the nation. The National Development program has the following objectives, split into time-sensitive deliverables. Each item will be tracked as a separate project with clear scope, schedule and deliverables.

The government human resources (read government employees) will be split into two groups.

1. Essential support staff, that are required to support key government functions – These are the human resources that went thru specific training and are assigned to complex functions: Such as DAE, some sections of DRDO, Paramilitary, Intelligence etc.

2. Open resource pool – Everyone else will be put in this group, irrespective of their salary, cadre and current role.

The NDP will be split into the following focus areas:

1. Education
2. Healthcare
3. Social Security (includes National ID program)
4. Law and Order
5. Infrastructure – Civil
6. Infrastructure – Military
7. Agriculture & Irrigation
8. Environment
9. Public Relations

And each employee in the Open Resource Pool will be given an opportunity to join a focus-area of his/her interest. The salary/grade will remain intact, but the role may change. Any remaining positions will be made available for new employment.

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 17 Jun 2009 04:25

Education:

There are three parts to the Education focus area

1. National Literacy Program: (Budget: Rs 10,000 Crore Per Year for 10 Years)

Objective: National Literacy Program is to achieve near 100% literacy throughout India. The definition of the literacy program is to make an individual learn to READ/WRITE/UNDERSTAND any Indian language (non-english), in addition to obtaining a National-ID plus Voter Card/Ration Card.

Methodology: All undergraduate and graduates students can join this voluntary program and earn Rs 500 for each illiterate member:

> 1. A volunteer joins NLP by applying its teacher-membership.

> 2. The volunteer member identifies the illiterate people and submits their forms. If the students (illiterate) do not have National-ID cards, he makes sure they obtained them. The Program Officer confirms that they are not duplicate entries after checking the National ID database and NLP Database.

> 3. The course curriculum will have
.........a. Language Skills – Read, Write, Comprehension
.........b. Math – Simple Arithmetic
.........c. History – National History, Geography
.........d. Governance – Local/State/Central governance structure
.........e. Law and Order – What are their basic rights and responsibilities
.........f. Form Filling – How to fill a Voter card, Demand Draft, Ration Card form, etc.,
.........g. Civic Sense – Basic understanding on civic sense – Rights and responsibilities

> 4. Examination: Prometric type centers in all towns. The participant has to show his National ID card as proof. Must get 70% correct answer to pass.

Cost Structure:
A. Book – A single handbook – Rs 250
B. Examination costs – Rs 250
C. NLP volunteer – will receive Rs 500 for each passed student
D. The participant will receive Rs 1000 cash upon passing the exam.

TOTAL = Rs 2000 per illiterate.

With an annual budget of Rs 10000 crore, we can have at least 4-5 Crore people become literate every year.

Risks: There will be a significant amount of corruption in the beginning by already educated people. So be it. If an educated person is willing to learn the above items and pass the prometric exam for a Rs 1000 benefit, it is worth the investment.

2. Primary Education (Budget: Rs 97,632 crore including 2 meals a day and 100% Health Insurance)

a. Any graduate and above who completed their BEd (Bachelor of Education – How to teach, method and art of teaching) can participate in this program.

b. A group of 10 graduates must join and apply as a group to start a school. Govt of India will offer them Rs 5Lakh as loan to kick start the school. This amount becomes FREE GRANT if the school continues for minimum 3 years.

c. Each school can have as many students as required. They will receive Rs 250 for each registered student, with National-ID as proof, per month. They can charge additional fee if the parents are willing to pay the additional amount.

d. The current public school system will be modified to make a village as a unit. In towns each municipal ward will become one unit. All schools in that unit, primary/secondary/high schools, will be combined to make a single unit for efficient management.

e. A school must maintain maximum 1:30 teacher: student ratio.

Cost Structure:

Note: This budget allocation is in addition to the annual budget allocation for primary education under balanced budget. All existing govt. schools will be united within a village upto 12th grade and will be converted into residential schools operated by GOI.

- A School with 1000 students (30-35 teachers) will receive ~Rs 30 Lakhs per yer from Govt grants.
- Offers employment opportunities for upto 4.5 million graduates. If graduates are encouraged to have similarly qualified spouses, the family income would be around Rs 1.5-2.0 Lakhs per annum, bringing them into the 15% IT bracket above Rs 1.5 Lakhs.
- Will open ~13,500 Akshayapatra type modern kitchens (each kitchen supplies 10,000 students or 20,000 meals a day). Offers employment to atleast 135,000 non-graduates. If we can integrate the supply-chains of this Aksyapatra kitches with my Farm subsidy returns (Rs 10,000 or 30% of crop returns, whichever is smaller will be collected by govt from 4 crore acres of food grain crops) then we can achieve an efficient food-management supply chain within India.

Risks: Standardization. But it could a boon in disguise having non-standardised education upto 10th grade.

To be contd…

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 17 Jun 2009 23:07

Chandragupta wrote:
CRamS wrote:
I see the next 10-year or so India-TSP game as follows; basically I throw in the towel: India surrenders Kashmir to TSP in slow motion, gradually TSP, especially Pakijabis stabilize, cricket and other love making resumes with US patting both India & Pakijabis on their backs; all this while TSP gains strength to fight another day.
Throw in the Nobel piss prize & the general population is happy as well. Just like they celebrated Slumdog Millionaire, our people will celebrate the nobel piss prize for Sardar jee or by then Rahul Baba, and we will sing Jai Ho onlee.

It is very frustrating.

But that is power play for you. As long as there is a conflict in the intersection between two nations, the "power" will always assert itself - exception: India.

To some extent India/MMS is paying for decisions made decades ago. But, that is a different story - not for this thread.

Unfortunately this region is considered a backyard by the US too. And, for whatever reason/s India has not been able to prevail upon THIS US admin that when it comes to terrorism India really has no part in it. India did a pretty good job with the Bush admin, but did not complete the job (for whatever reason - not a knock on India).

But, here is my tea leaf reading: Clearly Obama is twisting arms - no two ways about it. Burns trip was just for that purpose - nothing else. MMS seems to have laid down the Lakshman Line. MMS's public preempt in Russia was for Obama and NOT Prez Z - we will pull troops out and start some talks, but no terrorist attacks within India at all. And, from what is in the public domain so far, Obama SEEMS to have accepted that.

I am not too sure where Indo-Obama (NOT US)(I think there is a rather large diff within US about what Obama is doing) agreements are on dismantling "terrorist group"s. For sure India wants to include the likes of LeT and any off springs, etc. I would like to think that Obama agrees with that (ALL Terrorists), but has Obama extracted that from the Pakis and expects the Pakis to deliver and if that is true, what happens if Pakis do not deliver what India wants. Remains to be seen.

bala · Post by **bala** » 18 Jun 2009 01:06

In the Edu budget I find this item to be moronic in this day and age, given that we have computers.

A. Book – A single handbook – Rs 250

A better plan would be to have computers, terminals wherein school children can browse through books. The value of a book after study for a student is worthless the next year. The Govt can establish a group login account system for the entire class of students.

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 18 Jun 2009 01:09

bala wrote:In the Edu budget I find this item to be moronic in this day and age, given that we have computers.

A. Book – A single handbook – Rs 250
A better plan would be to have computers, terminals wherein school children can browse through books. The value of a book after study for a student is worthless the next year. The Govt can establish a group login account system for the entire class of students.

Bala-ji!

That is part of National Literacy Program. We are be looking at age groups 10-75++ and it may not be feasible to go e-books in such a scheme.

But you raised a valid point. We need to identify a way to teach them how use the prometric type test system. Let me think about that. Good catch!

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 18 Jun 2009 03:04

Bala,

What happens to publishers?

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 18 Jun 2009 03:22

Did not see this post earlier:

SSridhar wrote:India puts Pakistan to 'terror test'

Seems like a total break down between India and US.

There IS a big disconnect between India and the US on what a "terrorist" group is.

MMS:

................. while drawing an important distinction with Pakistan's crackdown on the Taliban militants, reportedly under Western pressure.

"We wish Pakistan well in dealing with the Al Qaeda and Taliban. I would like Pakistan to show the same sincerity and determination in dealing with terrorists who operate against us from their side," he said.

During the Indo-Us nuclear deal MMS had navigated without talking very much in the public domain.

The few lines he spoke before he went to talk with Pres Z and now this is a clear indication that MMS/this GoI is ticked. The question is, is it beyond repair.

It would be nice to keep a counter on such Indo-Pak gibberish. And also we need to track Indo-Afghan relations. I fully expect them to decline under US diktat.

I am (fairly) confident that Obama has miscalculated and even his office cannot prevent a split in both Afghanistan and Pakistan.

My guess.

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 18 Jun 2009 04:17

When Burns say India should pander to the whims of few Sunni Muslim terrorists in Kashmir valley , it actually means LET , Pakistani etc have the right to kill Yindoos with impunity. MMs is saying Yindoo blood have to of equal value to Western blood shed by the cousin terrorists of LET etc . Since these negotiations are done in public diplomatic statements,it will be interesting to watch if Obama adminstration like dinner with the Islamist terrorists or enjoy tea with civilized people . The other aspect seems to be that the new US Admin has either shut down or has not open highest level communication channels with GOI . Indians wil best advised to not expect any positive understanding with OA and work on creating favourable ground position in AFPAK area.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 18 Jun 2009 05:22

I would actually go a step further.

Can Obama and the US essentially guarantee that Islamists do not raise their heads - ever? It is Islamists that terrorize when things do not go their way.

This is where it will fail - it has to. And, I am fairly confident that Obama does not realize that "peace" cannot be enduring in this part of the world unless this is tackled.

Even a distilled democracy in Pakistan cannot prevent an Islamist from claiming the subcontinent for the Caliphate.

It is for this reason alone that I would put a counter proposal that Saudi Arabia allow to build non-Islamic places of worship in the Kingdom. This is somewhat similar to the Netanyahu proposal of a nonmilitary state of Palestine, etc.

The problem in Kashmir is not Indo-Pakistan, it is Indo-Islam. And, therefore as long as there are Islamists (NOT Muslims - not all Muslims are Islamists, IMHO) the problem will remain.

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 18 Jun 2009 05:29

NRao wrote:I The problem in Kashmir is not Indo-Pakistan, it is Indo-Islam. And, therefore as long as there are Islamists (NOT Muslims - not all Muslims are Islamists, IMHO) the problem will remain.

If i may add mainly financed and supported by the WEST and this exactly Obama Adm is doing. They cant be honest broker, gurranator or advocate of peace in the region . its simply not in their interest and GOI should not expect anything otherwise when playing diplomatic Samba.

brihaspati · Post by **brihaspati** » 22 Jun 2009 02:29

RamaYji,
excellent exposition.

Just a few queries!
(1) Would you consider keeping incentives for having smaller families and more girls to be "born" and incentives for women to be in economically rewarding activities and have pregnancies later?
(2) Is it better to have a comprehensive and compulsory health and social insurance scheme, that is based on fixed proportions of income tax at the baseline level? This to be combined with a national health service, which is again tied to the national medical education system?

Rahul Mehta · Post by **Rahul Mehta** » 22 Jun 2009 09:34

brihaspati wrote:RamaYji,
excellent exposition.

Just a few queries!
(1) Would you consider keeping incentives for having smaller families and more girls to be "born" and incentives for women to be in economically rewarding activities and have pregnancies later?
(2) Is it better to have a comprehensive and compulsory health and social insurance scheme, that is based on fixed proportions of income tax at the baseline level? This to be combined with a national health service, which is again tied to the national medical education system?

I would quote following clauses from the DRAFT of MRCM law I have proposed

http://rahulmehta.com/mrcm_demand_03.htm#a_0009

--
See Section-4, clause 9

9. One year after this law is passed, the rent a person obtains

* will increase by 33% if he has no kids

* will decrease by 33% if he has more than (2 daughters, 1 son) or (1 daughter, 1 son) or 2 sons or 3 daughters and in which youngest kid is born 1 year after the law is passed

* will decrease by 66% if he has more than (3 daughters, 1 son) or (2 daughters, 2 sons) or (1 daughter, 2 sons) or 3 sons or 4 daughters and in which youngest kid is born 1 year after the law is passed

--

So the share of land rent from IIMA, Airport plots, mineral ores etc decrease as they have more kids. There is "1 daughter free" provision which is stated in more clear terms. So the above proposed Executive Notification will ensure that over 99% of poor will have less kids, and will reduce the undue preference parents have for male kid over female kids. To ensure that rich also have less kids, the law I have proposed is : the income tax and wealth tax they have to pay will increase by 33% if they have 1 extra kid and by 66% if they have 2 extra kids.

Anybody got any any better Executive Notification or Legislation to reduce birth rate and improve sex ratio in India? If yes, pls post the DRAFT. Pls avoid posting vague broad policy objectives and directives. Pls post only the DRAFTS.

Rahul Mehta · Post by **Rahul Mehta** » 22 Jun 2009 09:49

A. Book – A single handbook – Rs 250

Bad idea

GoI should ONLY publish book in PDF format and put it on Web and make it copyright free. Let private people print copies on their own.

I see GoG printed textbooks in Gujarat. If same were printed by private sources, cost would have been half. And if same were printed on cheap newsprint papers, cost would one forth. Many commons would prefer textbooks printed on the newsprint papers if that costs less.

---

RamaY,

One important question you have left un-asked and un-answered is : over 99% of Nbjprie want commons' kids to stay uneducated so that Nbjprie-kids will have better careers. This 5000 year old proven fact - eg Prof Dr Dronacharya refused to teach skills to Eklavya (a common purta) and later chopped off his thumb. Today, teachers and IAS in education dept are all carbon copies of these Dronacharya.

I can give many examples post 1950. In Gujarat, intellectuals in a class of their own made a policy that Govt schools will NOT teach English till class-7 !! Their kids all went to schools where English was taught in class-I. Why? So that commons kids stay behind in their career and their kids come ahead. "If commons kids learn English, who will sweep my floors, who will dust my house, who will clean my utensils etc" are the thoughts that worry our intellectuals. And so they oppose English education to commons' kids.

Now AFAIS, you are living much of detailed drafting as well as execution in the hands of these very same IAS, intellectuals. So threat is twofold - 1. the IAS, intellectuals will ensure that shabbiest drafts come up which leave maximal room for siphoning out of funds 2. the IAS, intellectuals will ensure that shabbiest execution happens so that commons' kids get no good education in English, law, science and Maths.

How do you plan to address these issues?

---

Aristotle had told me that "one shouldn't ask questions he if doesnt want to answer them". My answers are on http://rahulmehta.com/improve_education.htm

.

Yayavar · Post by **Yayavar** » 22 Jun 2009 10:17

Rahul Mehta wrote:
A. Book – A single handbook – Rs 250

One important question you have left un-asked and un-answered is : over 99% of Nbjprie want commons' kids to stay uneducated so that Nbjprie-kids will have better careers. This 5000 year old proven fact - eg Prof Dr Dronacharya refused to teach skills to Eklavya (a common purta) and later chopped off his thumb. Today, teachers and IAS in education dept are all carbon copies of these Dronacharya.

RMji, This kind of exaggeration is what puts me off some of your posts.
Mahabharat shows an excellent character study of Drona. He has lived in poverty for long. Finally, he receives employment with the King, and then spares nothing in protecting his princes. He plays favourites (see Karna episode where Suyodhan crowns Karna King of Anga) and he looses his way.
On what basis do you extend it to a 5000 year old fact?

This is unnecessary, and takes away from the point you are making than support it.

R Vaidya · Post by **R Vaidya** » 22 Jun 2009 10:52

Dealing with Declining Empires

http://www.expressbuzz.com/edition/prin ... jiEhUwlVY=

The lost horizon of the emperors

By R Vaidyanathan
21 Jun 2009 11:27:00 PM IST

AT every seminar on financial matters these days, there’s one question that lingers — even during the coffee breaks: will the economy recover, and when? And, it isn’t about the Indian economy but that of the US. I reiterate it will take at least 40 quarters — that’s a decade — for America to recover. I tell this, and am shunned — like a swine flu patient.
I still maintain the US is going the banana republic way what with a national debt of more than $10 trillion, which is more than 80 per cent of its national income. Not only that the budget deficit is skyrocketing; it’s expected to reach more than 10 per cent soon. Last year, the US financial regulatory agencies came up with plans of financial support worth $6.8 trillion — comprising temporary loans and liability and asset guarantees. And by the third end of the first quarter of 2009, the financial support programmes reached $13.9 trillion.
The federal deficit as percentage of GDP is now expected to reach more than 10 per cent. There will be furious printing of more treasury bills and notes. The expected inflation is going to rip apart the society and the largest selling item in the last quarter was handguns and rifles. Already intriguing reports have come about attempt to smuggle more than $134 billion in treasury bonds by two Japanese citizens through the Italian border into Switzerland. It could be a ploy by CIA or really a daredevil act by some foreign government to destabilise the global financial system. I am waiting for the creditrating agencies like S&P to downgrade the US economy like other developing countries and prove their independence from the sole superpower. High hopes. Angus Maddison in his pioneering work for OECD on the global GDP share for the last 2,000 years has brought out an interesting fact pertaining to India and China. As early as the 1820s, China (33%) along with India (16%) and other Asian countries had a share of more than 55 per cent in the global GDP. By the late 20th century, it has declined to 29 per cent. The China percentage slid to 12, India’s to 5.
In the next 20 years, India should plan to have a share of at least 30 per cent of the global GDP. These imply that India should be racing ahead. If India grows at 8 to 9 per cent in the coming decade, then it can become the world’s third or fourth superpower.
But it also implies that, parallely, the West should decline in terms of their importance in the share of global GDP and world affairs.
Since the total is 100 per cent, any increased share for India and China would automatically reduce that of the other two.
Unlike the Great Depression of the 1920s, the current crisis for the West is not just an economic crisis. It has a dimension of demography and conflict (ongoing war with radical Islam) to it. Demographic, because Europe is slowly fading away from the global map. It used to have more than 20 per cent of the global population during the First World War, and now has less than 11 per cent. What’s more, it’s expected to shrink to three per cent in as many decades.
The reproductive rate in many European countries is less than 1.5, whereas the stable one is 2.1. In the case of US, the crisis is more severe due to its declining savings rate and a long-term tendency to nationalise families and privatise government.
Social security and Medicare system in US is classic case of nationalising families.
Such a declining Empire is dangerous to deal with. To start with, it does not want to accept the fact that it is a declining Empire.
Plus, it wants to retain its sole power status when it realises that its writ does not any more hold good. It tries to bully India.
Whenever a US official visits India, the beards in J&K become more active. Remember Robin Raphael of the nineties vintage who propped up the Hurriyat Conference? India recalls with anger the role Robin Raphael played during the Presidency of Bill Clinton in encouraging the formation of Hurriyat Conference, the umbrella organisation of moderate terrorists and terrorised moderates. Her only name to fame was she studied together with Clinton. When Hillary comes to India, the level of violence in J&K will increase. I wish someone in foreign office in India plots the correlation between visits of US officials and mob frenzy in the downtown Srinagar.
The declining empire realises that its elbowroom is becoming lesser and lesser with the Pakistan army that owns and controls a country. Islamabad always has a peculiar way of coming to discussion on any issue.
They keep a gun on their own head and argue with others. That is, they always threaten others with catastrophe if money is not given to them. This is the most sophisticated begging anywhere you can see in international relations. Bribing them won’t stop the plotters against the “US Satan”.
The next thing the declining empire does is to cringe and appease. The speech by Obama in Cairo is of that variety. He ascribed every human scientific endeavor to Islamic civilisation. Forget the Hindus who invented zero, forget Ptolemy and forget Copernicus. Just rewrite history. The third thing a declining power does is to pressure others to sacrifice on its behalf to buy peace with bullies. It cannot deal with radical Islam and if the ISI (that is what is critical — not the ten per cent Zardari) needs to be appeased with a piece of J&K, then the US will try to arm-twist India.
Herein comes our ability to understand declining powers.
We must internalise that US is a declining power and our bureaucrats must chant it hundred eight times on a daily basis. We should also remember that USA is very uncomfortable in dealing with democracies.
It’s natural ally is always a dictatorship since they can be “use and throw” friendships.
Dealing with democracies is messy since they talk about a domestic constituency and behave similar to USA. A mirror image of itself is unacceptable to “sole super power”. As India continues to grow at more than 8 per cent — and simply due to the power of compounding emerges as a major power — the desperation of the declining power will be more since our terrorist neighbour who has a the largest begging bowl and highest per-capita AK-47s will blackmail the declining power to appease him to keep peace.
What is in Indian interest is the continuation of civil war in Pakistan for, say, another ten to twenty years — ambient conflict — sort of auto-cannibalism which will be a dynamic disequilibria — situation.
Other option is to have at least three or so states created out of that entity. The concept of stable Pakistan is passé and a mirage and that should be unequivocally communicated to the declining empire.
Remember the last century. The declining British Empire — now it is the sick child of Europe but still with a grand illusion of influencing Indian sub-continent — created havoc by partitioning the land. The current declining empire may be tempted to do something rash to protect itself. And therein lays the challenge for our political leadership and mandarins. Dealing with a declining empire is more difficult than dealing with a stable empire.

Jamal K. Malik · Post by **Jamal K. Malik** » 23 Jun 2009 15:17

India pays penalty for not using loans from agencies
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/Busi ... 689650.cms

Guddu · Post by **Guddu** » 23 Jun 2009 17:37

[/quote]"Rahulji, I do not know what you have got against sanskrit to call it useless. FYI, Sanskrit is also taken up as a first language in many schools to which the elite or economically well off go. The best option for India today is to teach Sanskrit along with English to all our students so that the best of knowledge hidden in ancient scripts in whatever fields they may is brought out."[/quote]

There is wisdom in those old scripts, if one knows where to look...I have on occassion had a chance to read documents from masonic societies...and there is certainly interesting stuff.

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 24 Jun 2009 02:41

Brihaspati wrote:Just a few queries!
(1) Would you consider keeping incentives for having smaller families and more girls to be "born" and incentives for women to be in economically rewarding activities and have pregnancies later?
(2) Is it better to have a comprehensive and compulsory health and social insurance scheme, that is based on fixed proportions of income tax at the baseline level? This to be combined with a national health service, which is again tied to the national medical education system?

Brihaspati-ji

In the context of this exercise, I did not consider any incentives for having smaller families and more girls to be “born”. But we must offer incentives for women to be in economically rewarding activities. I will describe my thoughts on this in later topics.

I envisioned the health insurance coverage in three different combinations/programs:

1. Children between ages 5-18 > As part of the education program (the calculation for monthly voucher program includes health insurance coverage)
2. People of >60 years and under poverty line as part of the Social Security Program.
3. Families under poverty line as part of the self-employment scheme.

This was done to keep the qualification criteria separate between groups and allow fine tuning as required.

I thought of empowering woman by making it a qualification for the self-employment scheme. I have to admit that I haven’t thought of a separate plan for impoverished women belonging to other social groups. Let me think about that and will get back to you.

Rahul Mehta wrote:A. Book – A single handbook – Rs 250 Bad idea

GoI should ONLY publish book in PDF format and put it on Web and make it copyright free. Let private people print copies on their own.

I see GoG printed textbooks in Gujarat. If same were printed by private sources, cost would have been half. And if same were printed on cheap newsprint papers, cost would one forth. Many commons would prefer textbooks printed on the newsprint papers if that costs less.

One important question you have left un-asked and un-answered is : over 99% of Nbjprie want commons' kids to stay uneducated so that Nbjprie-kids will have better careers. This 5000 year old proven fact - eg Prof Dr Dronacharya refused to teach skills to Eklavya (a common purta) and later chopped off his thumb. Today, teachers and IAS in education dept are all carbon copies of these Dronacharya.

I can give many examples post 1950. In Gujarat, intellectuals in a class of their own made a policy that Govt schools will NOT teach English till class-7 !! Their kids all went to schools where English was taught in class-I. Why? So that commons kids stay behind in their career and their kids come ahead. "If commons kids learn English, who will sweep my floors, who will dust my house, who will clean my utensils etc" are the thoughts that worry our intellectuals. And so they oppose English education to commons' kids.

Now AFAIS, you are living much of detailed drafting as well as execution in the hands of these very same IAS, intellectuals. So threat is twofold - 1. the IAS, intellectuals will ensure that shabbiest drafts come up which leave maximal room for siphoning out of funds 2. the IAS, intellectuals will ensure that shabbiest execution happens so that commons' kids get no good education in English, law, science and Maths.

RM-ji,

The budget allocation for the handbook is Rs 250. I did not outline how this will be implemented (public/private). What everyone missing about the National Literacy Program is that the purpose of this program is to achieve 100% literacy for people in age groups above 15 years. 90+% of these individuals belong to low-income or BPL groups. It is not practical to expect them to have access to computers and PDF files. That said, I have a flaw in my program that I envision to use prometric type exam centers for these same people

All the children <15yrs will be part of the compulsory education program and are covered under the second program (Primary Education).

I hope to remove the influence of Nbjprie-elites on primary education by offering direct monthly voucher program. If a parent wants his/her kid to have English medium education they can send their kids to that program. Please note that irrespective of which school a kid goes, the child is assured of 2 meals a day + health insurance + Rs 250 per month education voucher.

The second part of your question is about implementation and you have very valid inputs. I will present my thoughts after outlining the programs.

The third point is about historical context. Let us take that discussion to our favorite threads