Perspectives on the global economic meltdown

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Satya_anveshi
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown

Post by Satya_anveshi »

Oh..Green God..if you are there..you must surely have a plan for this sorry nation.

http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-200 ... 10466.html
U.S. drivers may have seen one benefit since gas prices surged and the economy tanked: Traffic congestion, which has steadily been worsening, pulled back in 2007, according to a new study from the Texas Transportation Institute.

The pullback was the first in the 25 years that the data has been compiled. However, its effects aren't expected to linger after any recovery. The institute is calling for business, commuters and travelers to come up with local solutions to congestion.

Data from the U.S. Department of Transportation have shown miles driven have fallen pretty steadily on a year-to-year basis since late 2007.

Among its findings, the 2009 Urban Mobility Report noted that delays per traveler declined by 1.3 hours from 2005 to 2007, though most of it is attributed to rising fuel prices

Still, Americans wasted 4.2 billion hours stuck in traffic during 2007 - or one full work week per person - while they needed to purchase 2.8 billion gallons of extra gas at a cost of $87.2 billion - 50% more than a decade earlier. The gallons of wasted fuel are enough to fill 370,000 18-wheeler fuel delivery trucks - bumper-to-bumper from Houston to Boston to Los Angeles, the report said.

Even so, this represented a decline of 40 million hours and 40 million gallons from 2006, but an increase in cost of $100 million owing to costs of fuel and truck delays.

By comparison, the costs of congestion were estimated at $63.1 billion in 2000 and $16.7 billion in 1982.

The study was sponsored by the University Transportation Center for Mobility at Texas A&M University, the American Road & Transportation Builders Association Transportation Development Foundation, the American Public Transportation Institute and the Texas Transportation Institute.
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown

Post by Nandu »

Ramana, I disagree that not being able to raise taxes is California's problem.

The state of California spends 13% of the state's GDP. State+Local government spending is 21%. This is on top of what the federal government spends, which is 25% of GDP. I think those levels are pretty high already.

The problem in California are the voters who have set mandated spending levels on many programs, which gives the legislature very little room to maneuver. The last election had some propositions that would move some of those mandated spending funds from specific programs to the general budget so they could be used to fill the budget whole. All those propositions were voted down. Almost every election in California comes with ballot propositions that mandate some new feel good spending and they all get invariably voted in.

Maybe spending measures should have also require a 2/3rd majority and not just tax measures. CA should have a complete reset on all the mandatory spending laws and then go from there.
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown

Post by SwamyG »

Singha: Nouriel Roubini has suggested that the savings rate might go up to 10-11%. So how did you arrive at the 15% number for savings rate? The Amirkhan companies will cry if the savings rate go up that high - because it means the joes and janes are buying less things. The consumer spending is about 70% of the AmirKhan GDP. It means Wall Street will get into fits and/or have an heart attack. Look at the following line:
What troubled investors was that the savings rate soared to 6.9 percent, a 15-year high, while spending rose by a modest 0.3 percent.
Source:http://www.sunjournal.com/node/22982/

So such is the mindset out in Unkilland. High savings rate in the short term will drive the companies to ER - the CEO and company care about Q1, Qn onlee.
Last edited by SwamyG on 09 Jul 2009 05:17, edited 1 time in total.
vsudhir
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown

Post by vsudhir »

Singha has a point there. Khanate savings have nowhere to go but up and deflation + deleveraging simply have to set in before recovery/healing etc can even begin.

Its not anymore about what corpos, wall streeters or netas in DC want. Like Denninger's writing so eloquently makes the case, the economy simply *has to* settle down at a much slower metabolic rate to be sustainable. The past few yrs were a steroid (read cheap, hyper-credit) injection straight to the vena cava. The khanomy has to contract some this yr, some more next yr and then meet a sustainable level of khanomic activity (extrapolating from what we know now; barring some revolutionary cold-fusion type miracle happening, that is).

as for CA, AZ, FL and other dangerously teetering states, dunno if they even have a bankruptcy option. I know for sure that municipalities can declare chapter 9 bankruptcy.
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown

Post by SwamyG »

No...noooo; I don't disagree. I entirely agree with the thought of sustainable living. I think the Khans were driving at 90mph; while they should have been driving at 55mph. My question is how did he arrive at the 15% number onlee. I have been a follower of Singha's prediction about the standard of living in USA falling by 20% or so.

As far as the khanomy contracting next year, "analysts" are predicting 2.5% growth in 2010 :-)
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown

Post by vsudhir »

No idea where the 15% figure comes from. Probably more of a heuristic than a madarassa-sanctioned precise forecast. I too think khanomic savigs have to enter double digit territory for starters.

Meanwhile, Father and son counterfeiters jailed for their own 'quantitative easing'
A FAILED businessman whose greed and love of the high life led him to become a counterfeiter and print his own money was jailed yesterday along with his Oxford graduate son.
One commenter notes wryly:
I can't believe these guys were jailed for trying to 'stimulate' the economy and complementing the efforts of the Central bankers. They should be national heroes with their statues in prominent public places.
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown

Post by Singha »

I read about it in some article.
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown

Post by ramana »

nandu, Its the failure to pass a budget thats the root cause of CA woes. And the failure is due to the extra majority required.
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown

Post by vsudhir »

Citigroup: AIG Equity May Be Worth Zero
American International Group Inc, the insurer rescued by a series of federal bailouts, may have zero equity value due to the risk of more credit default swap losses and the disposal of key assets at low valuations, Citigroup said.

Shares of the company fell 22 percent to $10.22 in early trade Thursday on the New York Stock Exchange. The shares have lost more than 90 percent of their value in the last year.

Potential markdowns in AIG Financial Product unit's regulatory CDS portfolio may result in collateral calls that would again put pressure on AIG's liquidity, Citigroup analyst Joshua Shanker said.

Such collateral calls could also pressure rating agencies to lower their credit ratings for the company, leading to a similar
cycle to the one that the company experienced prior to the massive government intervention in the third quarter," Shanker wrote in a research note.

Last month, AIG revised its 2008 annual report to add a new risk factor that shows it may recognize valuation losses on a CDS portfolio if credit markets continue to deteriorate.

At issue is a super senior CDS portfolio held by AIG Financial Products with a notional value of $192.6 billion as of March 31, 2009....
Jai Ho AIG. Recently saw an old Nat Geo magazine (dated 2006). Had AIG's ad on its back cover "we know money". rofled onlee.
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown

Post by ramana »

But isnt it pot(Citigroup) calling kettle(AIG) black? Not really a child shouting emperor has no clothes.
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown

Post by vsudhir »

ramana wrote:But isnt it pot(Citigroup) calling kettle(AIG) black? Not really a child shouting emperor has no clothes.
Not only that, AIG was the ultimate bagholder on wall st. It was via AIG's massive $85 bn bailout (the single largest for any single business org in history?) that Goldman, shitibank, JPM and other wall st worthies were able to invoke their hedged CDSs, make up their huge losses in the collapsing CDO mkts and extract taxpayer monies back to solvency onlee.
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown

Post by shravan »

Citigroup shuffles executives, CFO moves

Ned Kelly, appointed CFO in March and touted as a potential successor to chief executive Vikram Pandit, becomes vice-chairman

Citigroup unveiled yet another management re-shuffle, moving its chief financial officer (CFO) just three and a half months into the job, in a sign of the pressure on Vikram Pandit, chief executive, to turn around the bank.
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown

Post by shravan »

BRIC Reserve Currency Plans Won’t Undermine Dollar, RBC Says

July 9 (Bloomberg) -- BRIC nation calls to reduce the role of the dollar will have “little material implications” for the next five years because a weakened U.S. currency isn’t in their “best interest,” according to RBC Capital Markets.

For China to raise concern about the dollar while holding almost $2 trillion of assets in the U.S. currency would be like “shooting yourself in the foot” because it would put downward pressure on the value of those assets, Nick Chamie, Toronto- based global head of emerging markets research at RBC Capital, wrote in a report today.

Leaders from Brazil, Russia, India and China are demanding a greater stake in the management of the global economy and challenging the dollar as the primary denomination for world reserves as the worst U.S. financial crisis since the 1930s weakens the dollar. The BRICs, which account for 15 percent of the world economy, hold about 42 percent of foreign reserves, according to Bloomberg data.
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown

Post by vsudhir »

shyam
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown

Post by shyam »

Is this news a fact or just a diversionary tactic? Should we expect somebody to resort to financial terrorism using this exposed Goldmine's fast trading algorithm?

Goldman Sachs Loses Grip on Its Doomsday Machine: Jonathan Weil
enqyoob
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown

Post by enqyoob »

Thanks a lot, guys. After reading your encouraging words, I don't feel so scared any more about the news of increased tremor activity under the San Andreas Fault, or nukes in the hands of Dear Little Leader or Baitullah Ahmedinejad Zardari. :P Yawn! Got to go sleep peacefully now.
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown

Post by amol.p »

Moody's cuts British Airways deeper into junk

Moody's cut British Airways by one notch to Ba3, the third-highest junk rating

Hurt by global recession, the world's airlines lost more than $3 billion in the first quarter of 2009, airline lobby International Air Transport Association said last week. ---------so Indian Airlines is not alone......


http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/Int ... 760459.cms
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown

Post by amol.p »

Warren Buffett says second stimulus might be needed

{seems like king of investment himself is in deep trouble}

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/Int ... 759421.cms
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown

Post by amol.p »

China Fails to Attract Enough Buyers in Bill Sales

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... wkbrQzm4bs

China failed to attract enough bidders in a government debt sale for a second time this week on speculation that policy makers will rein in money supply to avoid any pickup in inflation.

The People’s Bank of China has been pushing up money-market rates in the past two weeks, seeking to choke off the supply of funds used to speculate on stocks and real estate without derailing a 4 trillion yuan economic stimulus plan------{can gurus the implications of same}

The government failed to complete a bond sale on July 8 for the first time in almost six years, selling 27.5 billion yuan of the 28 billion yuan in one-year notes it auctioned.
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown

Post by vina »

Joshua Shanker said.
Know him very very well. If he says it, I would rather believe it. Last year, I joked and told him that before he downgrades anything, he should let me know well in advance so that I can run with family and friends and lock myself up in a Nuclear Bunker like in Terminator 3.

In fact, he like a good "analyst", downgraded AIG , just literally moments before it was nationalized! (ok,.i think it was a day).
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown

Post by vsudhir »

Markets mayhem puts spin on statistics
Year-on-year changes in exports – which is how many statistics offices present their updates and what newspapers usually report – do tell a depressing story. Until the end of last year, Chinese exports came in every month 20-30 per cent higher than a year earlier. Then, in the last two months of 2008, year-on-year growth was approximately zero – and in January it plunged to -15 per cent and has stayed around -20 per cent since.

You might interpret those figures as saying that Chinese exports stagnated at the end of 2008, went over a cliff in January and have been tumbling ever since.

But you would be wrong.

In fact exports peaked in July 2008, at $137bn (€98bn, £85.5bn). They stayed close to this level until October, and the big tumble happened in the months just after the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy paralysed markets. The world’s other largest exporters – Japan, Germany and South Korea – show similar patterns.

Interestingly, the contractions had more or less finished by the beginning of 2009. Since then, exports have been bumping along at the levels of the middle of the decade – stagnant, to be sure, but not falling.
China’s exports, for example, regularly dip in January and February, around the Chinese new year. It would be a mistake to interpret that as reversals of the country’s astounding export growth. Year-on-year figures display the economically significant information in the data – the continuing upward trend – by removing seasonal variations.
OK. then wouldn't comparison with 12 months prior offset the seasonal spike or dip? Isn't that the whole point of taking a 12 month prior baseline?
But we are not in normal times where monthly changes in exports are just insignificant disturbances around a stable trend. Last year’s disruption to global markets caused the trend itself to change dramatically.

In such a fast-changing environment, year-on-year changes at best obscure what is happening in the economy, and at worst misrepresent what is going on as something else. It is better then to look at monthly change or level figures, as long as one adjusts them for historical seasonal variation. Those awaiting Friday’s statistics’ release should take heed.

They should also be prepared for the end of the summer, when it will be a year since exports collapsed. If nothing changes until then, we may see year-on-year figures suddenly improve in October. But this will only be because the basis of comparison – exports one year ago – worsens, even if current export levels show only anaemic growth. Year-on-year figures will look better, not because they tell us something new, but because they stop telling us something old.

So before cheering at news of a strong upswing in exports, take a closer look at those numbers.
Uh. Ok. whatever.
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown

Post by SwamyG »

ramana wrote:But isnt it pot(Citigroup) calling kettle(AIG) black? Not really a child shouting emperor has no clothes.
It is more like a scum calling the other vermin.
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown

Post by SwamyG »

Watch natural gas shoot up in price. When this happens and it will happen, they will use various tricks to manipulate the markets, they will ENRON us to death—when this happens, we shall learn a valuable lesson. There was this scorpion who needed to cross a river. ’Save me, O crocodile!’ cried the scorpion. So the crocodile carried the scorpion across and in thanks, the scorpion bit the crocodile. As it died, it cried out, ‘Why did you do this to me?’ And the scorpion said, ‘Goldman Sachs always makes a profit.
Source: http://emsnews.wordpress.com/2009/07/09 ... nightmare/
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown

Post by SwamyG »

OT...
Recent earthquake activities in California and Nevada.
Image
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown

Post by vsudhir »

Wonderful 6 page article in Der Spiegel on the man who got it right way back in 2003.

The man nobody wanted to hear
The corridors of the BIS headquarters buildings are lined with retro white leather chairs and sofas from the 1970s. The round table where the delegates address the problems of the global economy is polished to a high gloss. But the most impressive space of all is the auditorium, with its modern armchairs in white leather and chrome, the thousands of tiny LED lights, the booths in the back where the interpreters sit behind one-way glass, and the console where the financial masters of the world do their work, centrally positioned at the front of the room. The room is evocative of the control room in "Star Trek." It was supposed to be the hub from which the financial world was to be guided through every possible hazard.

Naturally, the building is largely bugproof, the goal being to prevent anything from leaking to the outside and any unauthorized individuals from penetrating into its interior. There are no public minutes of the meetings. Everything that is discussed there is confidential. The word transparency is unknown at the BIS, where nothing is considered more despicable than an indiscreet central banker.

Central bankers, proud of their independence, are intent on holding themselves above all partisan influences while taking all necessary measures to keep the global economy healthy.

These traits make the BIS one of the world's most exclusive and influential clubs, a sort of Vatican of high finance. Formally registered as a stock corporation, it is recognized as an international organization and, therefore, is not subject to any jurisdiction other than international law.

It does not need to pay tax, and its members and employees enjoy extensive immunity. No other institution regulates the BIS, despite the fact that it manages about 4 percent of the world's total currency reserves, or €217 trillion ($304 trillion), as well as 120 tons of gold.
Meanwhile, the global economy is on the brink of disaster, as it faces the most devastating and brutal crisis in a century. The only reason the financial system is still intact is that governments are spending billions to support it. Central bankers have been forced to abandon their air of sophisticated aloofness and to try, together with politicians, to save what can be saved. Nowadays no one is talking about the free market's ability to heal itself.
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown

Post by vsudhir »

chalo bhai, aaj ka D&G entree...

When Will The Recovery Begin? Never
The so-called "green shoots" of recovery are turning brown in the scorching summer sun. In fact, the whole debate about when and how a recovery will begin is wrongly framed. On one side are the V-shapers who look back at prior recessions and conclude that the faster an economy drops ...

Unfortunately, V-shapers are looking back at the wrong recessions. ...

That's where the more sober U-shapers come in. They predict a more gradual recovery ...

Personally, I don't buy into either camp. In a recession this deep, recovery ... depends on consumers who, after all, are 70 percent of the U.S. economy. And this time consumers got really whacked. Until consumers start spending again, you can forget any recovery ...

Eventually consumers will replace cars and appliances and other stuff that wears out, but a recovery can't be built on replacements. Don't expect businesses to invest much more without lots of consumers hankering after lots of new stuff. And don't rely on exports. The global economy is contracting.
The last part is true, sadly. Its implicit in the significantly lower khanomic activity level the world will likely see now on. The fun days are over, its all downhill from here, it seems to say.
Last edited by vsudhir on 11 Jul 2009 03:21, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown

Post by vsudhir »

Interesting comment from a D&G blawg.
The Federal Reserve Bank is run by the NY Fed. The powers behind the NY Fed are Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan and GE. William Dudley, the President of the NY Fed, prior to joining the Fed in January 2007, was a partner and managing director at Goldman, Sachs & Company and served for a decade as the firm’s chief U.S. economist. At Goldman he held a variety of positions including senior foreign exchange economist.

NY Fed director Jamie Dimon is CEO of JPM. NY Fed director Jeff Immelt is CEO of GE. If Ron Paul's bill to audit the Fed passes, it will reveal that the collateral, that GS, JPM and GE have been using to borrow money against, is worth only dimes on the dollar, and that would render their stock worthless and their corporations insolvent. They will move hell and earth to make sure that the mark to market value of their toxic waste is never revealed.
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown

Post by vsudhir »

To recast an old filmi line......Khan-oon ke haath bahut lambe hote hain, kalia

IRS "Turning Over Every Rock" to Raise Revenue: Obama Targeting Overseas Assets
Faced with massive deficits and dwindling tax revenues, the U.S. government is "turning every rock it can over to find as much revenue as it can," says Ken Rubinstein, senior partner at Rubinstein & Rubinstein.
In addition to potential tax hikes, Rubinstein sees a wholesale change in how America treats foreign holdings of U.S. individuals and corporations, citing:

Repatriation: The Obama administration has discussed raising taxes on profits earned overseas by U.S.-based corporations. "This will increase revenues but some companies may leave the country," Rubinstein says.

Flexing Muscles: The U.S. government will ask all nations to sign a "tax information exchange agreement," says Rubinstein, citing unnamed foreign government officials. He declined to specify but the attorney has advised Caribbean banking centers in the past. Smaller nations will have no choice but to acquiesce, Rubinstein says.

Crackdown on Havens: Beyond the government's ongoing case against UBS, pending legislation declares "anybody who sends money to a ‘tax haven country' will be presumed to be committing tax fraud," Rubinstein says. "The burden will be on the taxpayer to prove he didn't commit tax fraud. The judge, jury and prosecutor will be the IRS." This will make it increasingly difficult for U.S. citizens to shelter assets abroad - even for legitimate reasons.

The government is "doing as much possible to increase amount of taxes it receives," he says...
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown

Post by vera_k »

IRS "Turning Over Every Rock" to Raise Revenue: Obama Targeting Overseas Assets
This must explain why I got audited.
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown

Post by vsudhir »

U.S. consumers fall behind on loans at record pace
Delinquencies on the value of all card debt soared to a record 6.60 percent from 5.52 percent in the fourth quarter as more cardholders relied on plastic to meet day-to-day expenses, the American Bankers Association said.

Late payments on home equity loans rose to 3.52 percent from 3.03 percent, and on home equity lines of credit climbed to 1.89 percent from 1.46 percent.

A broader gauge showing late payments on eight categories of loans rose for a fourth straight quarter to a new record, edging up to 3.23 percent from 3.22 percent. That rate actually understates consumer pain because it excludes credit cards. The ABA tracks loan payments that are at least 30 days late.
One wag avers:
So the people that ultimately pay for the government's debt liabilities can't even pay their own personal debt liabilities?

If I were the government I would borrow as much as I could as fast as I could before my creditors figured this out.
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown

Post by Singha »

saw a ticker on tv yesterday that china khans yoy exports are down 21%
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown

Post by vsudhir »

So it begins.
Detroit Public School System May Wind Up In Bankruptcy
The Detroit Public Schools may have no choice but to file for Chapter 9 bankruptcy, which would make it the first big-city school district to use bankruptcy court to avoid paying millions to vendors, employees and bondholders, experts said Thursday.

DPS Emergency Financial Manager Robert Bobb is continuing to consider the option and met Thursday with retired U.S. Bankruptcy Judge Ray Reynolds Graves.

Jim McTevia of McTevia & Associates of Bingham Farms, which works with companies with serious financial troubles, said DPS has three choices to solve its projected $259-million budget deficit: raise more money, cut costs or declare bankruptcy.

More revenues are extremely unlikely, given DPS's projected enrollment decline of 12,000 students and anticipated state funding cuts. McTevia estimated DPS would have to cut its costs as much as 50%, an almost impossible feat given that more than 80% of most school district costs are salaries and benefits mandated by contracts.

Bobb, a state appointee who took charge of the DPS budget in March, was not able to balance the 2009-10 budget, which totals about $1.2 billion and calls for $21.8 million in debt service payments on bonds sold to eliminate past deficits.

A bankruptcy filing could reduce the amount DPS will pay vendors and bondholders. It also could allow a judge to rule on DPS's requested changes to employment contracts, McTevia said.
No secret that public services in the khanate will be affected. Kinda expected first big blowup to happen in CA. MI is some dist from there.
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown

Post by Singha »

CA still has some style and chutzpah left. the rust belt and bible belt states will be first to suffer probably.

be interesting to see how the vaunted 1st world public services end up when all is
said and done.

I vote garbage not be collected from far flung mcsuburbs to cut cost. let it rot in
the summer heat , let feral dogs tear away at the waste and let people dump it in
rivers, forests, lakes and conservation lands.

a bratty generation brought up on limitless waste of energy needs to learn a lesson.
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown

Post by SwamyG »

Pope calls for 'God-centered' global economy
Personally, I would like to see Indians seeing the value of dharmic-centric way of life. Dharmam, Artha, Kamam and Moksham. We were given good set of guidelines; but we are just not willing enough to use those guidelines.
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown

Post by Purush »

Zoo May Close, Euthanize Animals-Budget Cuts Threaten Boston Zoo
http://www.thebostonchannel.com/money/2 ... etail.html
BOSTON -- The Franklin Park Zoo, the only Boston institution of its kind, may be forced to close and euthanize some of its animals, zoo officials said Friday

Without more state funding, zoo officials said that they will run out of money within months and have to close both Franklin Park and the Stone Zoo in Stoneham.

The zoos would be forced to lay off most of their 165 employees and attempt to find new homes for more than 1,000 animals.

Zoo officials estimated 20 percent of the animals would not find homes and could be euthanized. :(
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown

Post by vsudhir »

Denninger on a roll again. Has a way with words, he does.
Chris Dodd and Barney Frank.

These two are the "banking regulatory chiefs" in Congress of course; Dodd in the Senate and Frank in the House.

Both have steadfastly stood beside the banks through this crisis, especially the really-big banks that have given millions of dollars in campaign contributions.

The same banks that lobbied hard to "reform" bankruptcy so you cannot file Chapter 7 any more when you go bankrupt and stick lenders with the bad lending decisions they made of their own free will. That is, your credit and financial life is ruined, but theirs (which should also be ruined) is not.

The same banks that connived with Congress and The Federal Reserve to get the last pieces of Glass-Steagall repealed - the law that, had it been present, would have prevented nearly all of this crisis.

The same banks that (Citi-cough-cough) got Alan Greenspan to approve a merger with Travelers that Greenspan knew was illegal at the time it was consummated - a merger that was then retroactively made legal with passage of Gramm-Leach-Bliley.

The same banks that lobbied to get an exemption from bucket-shop laws and insurance regulation (indeed, any regulation) for credit-default swaps.

The same banks that, post-ENRON when we all learned about the outright fraudulent accounting enabled by "off-balance sheet" games, not only kept doing it but increased the size of such ventures.

And more importantly, the same banks that lobbied hard this spring to get an exemption from mark-to-market accounting for the "assets" they hold on their books - an exemption they were in fact using without having it, as I will shortly illustrate.
If you're wondering why I keep harping on the same points over and over it is because I have been warning of this catastrophe and its consequences, along with the willful blindness and complicity of our government in this charade and scam for more than two years.

Those who have paid attention have managed to mostly-avoid the catastrophe, at least for their stock market holdings. They got out in the beginning of 2008 when it became evident that despite months of warning and clear evidence our government was going to conspire with these robber barons to commit fraud right up until the moment when the truth became impossible to hide any more and our entire economic system came crashing down around our ears, all in the name of protecting a handful of companies and their cronies, along with their ill-gotten "gains" and "bonuses."

Folks, this bubble and the consequence thereof for our economy and nation was not an accident. It was not merely a matter of "greed". Greed, all on its own, is not necessarily bad, despite what The Bible says. Greed drives human ambition, and ambition in turn drives true innovation. Absent "greed" we would not have the personal computer, electricity in our homes, air conditioning, microwave ovens, mechanical refrigeration, the Internet or cell phones. All of these things exist because someone got "greedy" and decided to try to make a profit.

It is when greed combines with fraud - that is, the knowing and intentional deceit practiced by one for the purpose of screwing someone else, that we have a problem. It is when honesty is discarded in favor of a "faster and simpler way" to make money - that is, instead of a fair bargain someone decides they would rather steal, either by lying, bribery or "convenient" omission.

We will not exit this economic downturn on a durable, sustainable basis, nor will we normalize our economy - that is, return it to a structure where economic prosperity is based on production instead of the scam of lying about asset values - until the hidden insolvency of institutions is flushed to the surface and recognized in bankruptcy court. In turn we must reverse the disastrous "bankruptcy reform act" so that both creditor and debtor, whether they be corporations or individuals, are afforded both the same harm from going bust and the same protection.

Until Chris Dodd and Barney Frank, along with the rest of the clowns that inhabit The Capitol, 1600 and 1500 Pennsylvania Avenue, come to the realization that the game-playing cannot possibly work and that it is time to tell the truth, we will continue to spiral down into the abyss.

The important point to take from this is not that forcing honesty will make the pain go away. It will not. It will, however, limit the duration of the pain, and stop compounding the errors and thus the necessary economic harm that must come.

We had a good deal of economic pain that had to be taken in the year 2000. The vast majority of it was not.

As a direct consequence of the willful fraud that our government and banking interests engaged in to avoid that economic pain in 2000, we have now more than doubled the economic pain that must be taken in 2008 and 2009.

What must be recognized is that there are only two choices: We can accept that amount of economic pain in full, here and now, or we can continue to add to it and try to put it off until later.

Doing the latter appears to be beyond our ability to succeed, meaning that we are only adding to the harm that must be absorbed at a rapidly-increasing rate.

It has been time to face the music since 2000, and it still is. We are now in the "exponential blow-off top of pain" phase, and instead of garnering years of respite (at the cost of even more trouble) we are only gaining weeks or months.

The clock has, quite simply, run out.
link
vsudhir
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Posts: 2173
Joined: 19 Jan 2006 03:44
Location: Dark side of the moon

Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown

Post by vsudhir »

Must watch, folx.

[youtube]<object width="425" height="344"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/hqG1OXNU6yI&co ... ram><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><param name="allowScriptAccess" value="always"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/hqG1OXNU6yI&co ... edded&fs=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowfullscreen="true" allowScriptAccess="always" width="425" height="344"></embed></object>[/youtube]

Youtube activism taking off. Nothing radically new w.r.t this thread but the presentation was well done. There are several causes for which BRFites making such videos (Rudradev comes to mind) has also had impact.
John Snow
BRFite
Posts: 1941
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown

Post by John Snow »

Yes yes Pope keeps Hope alive, with he being the sole accredited representative of GOD, who actually broke the backs of money changers :mrgreen:

From Inhaca / Muputo Mozambique greetings to all :)
vsudhir
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2173
Joined: 19 Jan 2006 03:44
Location: Dark side of the moon

Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown

Post by vsudhir »

John Snow wrote:From Inhaca / Muputo Mozambique greetings to all :)
Aha. Awaiting a travelogue of sorts from your perspicacious pen, JS garu! :mrgreen:
Singha
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Joined: 13 Aug 2004 19:42
Location: the grasshopper lies heavy

Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown

Post by Singha »

I have been to the franklin park zoo. it was a small zoo unless my impression was mistaken. if they cant even house and feed that small collection, things must be pretty down. hope some patrician moneybag on beacon hill like abigail johnson bails them out.
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