Narayanan wrote:"In the 1960s-70s, India's armed forces were not equipped to deal with a massive Chinese invasion. In those days the general expectation was that China would use a mass "human-wave" attack. Completely without basis, Indians of the time believed that the American propaganda about 100:1 casualty ratios (1 American killed for 100 Chinese killed) would automatically apply to India-China wars as well, since we are so superior. But even then, like the Americans, we were also losing wars to the Chinese PLA, because Mao had declared that even if 300 million Chinese were killed, that would leave 400 million.
Today, the Chinese Armed Forces are well trained, motivated, and VERY well armed and equipped. They have MASSIVE firepower and reserves of weapons. It is very doubtful whether India has "qualitative superiority", all claims about the Su-30MKIs notwithstanding.
In 1962, the unquestioned superstition goes, if the IAF had not been held back, the Chinese supply lines would have been shattered and the Chinese would have been annihilated. Would they, and if so, why did the UN forces in the Korean "police action" fail so utterly and why is the DMZ in Korea so close to Seoul rather than being at the Yalu river?
In the 1960s-70s, at least there was SOME sign of wisdom in the GOI - there was mandatory NCC in high schools and colleges. The kids of those days thus learned some basic skills such as crawling under barbed wire, and marching, and even carrying .303 rifles, and most importantly, some sense of discipline inc. the concept of taking orders. So the possibility existed that the Chinese would run into widespread resistance and the local level.
How about today? Does today's cellphone-in-ear generation have a clue?
The Indian Admiral who laid out the simple truth, should be awarded a medal. India cannot counter China without
a) massive improvements in infrastructure
b) really large scale production of missiles (I mean short-range)
c) massive, well-guarded distributed stores of rifles and ammo all over the country
d) much more emphasis on training and discipline in emergency response and local civil defence, also as a backup to reduce basic training times for a large number of possible conscripts.
China is funding and training Naxals etc. to act as 5th Columnists all over India, from northeast to east to south to southwest and middle. The lack of awareness and the apathy in India are truly apalling."
Dear Sir,
I don't know whether a newbie (with fairly limited knowledge) should be joining issue with a moderator on this, but I would like to add a few things in addition to your comments.
IMHO, for quite some time the brass & the civvies higher up seemed to have no clue or appetite about the Chinese threat. (A small piece of evidence - The ARC going to seed, before the Afgan conflict gave it a lease of life & the sheer lack of infra in the NE) Further, I believe that, the recent flurry of activities that are being carried out are a direct result of the fresh intelligence from brother agencies and of the indegenous spy satellites (more importantly so, IMHO), something we didn't have earlier. I believe whatever they have seen, is so compelling that they can't ignore or look the other way any more. (These are my humble assumptions)
Further, the response seems to be at 2 levels,
1. Make it impossible for China to make specatacular gains in the first few days a conflict.
2. Since (again IMHO) though qualitatively and technologically PLAAF equipment (presumption) might be dated but their sheer nos will make it impossible for India to continue a war for long (more than 10-15 days), the much bigger economy and the sheer size of PLA are other facors. So the staregy seems to be hold for a few days & then look for tacit & direct US support to ward them off (Evidence, IMHO increasing willingness to align with the US on global issues, recent millitary purchases & the probable MRCA deal)
Also the steps taken on ground viz;
1. Massive ramp up of the BRO in NE (two new CE(P)s), with huge mandate on GS & CSG roads. Also floating the trans Arunachal Highway idea.
2. Reopening of older Airforce bases (like DBO)
3. Moving the Su-30s to Tezpur (which had the MOFTU)
4. Proposed raining of 2 new Mountain Divs.
Atleast as of now, these developments look like very piece my untrained eye. Also, reminds me eerily of the positional warfare theory of B.M. Kaul Vintage.
Hope that we move much on a much faster scale with a comprehensive strategy & the chinks hold long enough till we are through. Would hate to see, a repeat of 62.
since was not sure if I would get chased out by the guru-log here at this blasphemous statement. Now adding Lanka to that would make me even more happy. I am a maximalist as far as land accretion goes. I would not leave BDesh alone either, at least the northern half of it to expand the chicken neck for easier swallowing of the chipanda proxies in the Northeast. Nepal and Bhutan are prime targets by PRC. So we should be relentless there with our hugs.
) is an important transit route between Cheen and Pukistan. I wounder how important it is for Gwadar/Balochistan activities. Considering that I have not even seen what the pas or a road to that pass looks like on haraamG I am not in a position to comment.
