Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2

hnair · Post by **hnair** » 24 Sep 2009 02:18

Ramana-ji, regarding cake et al. Yeah, it was alleged by the comedians across the border about yehoodi-brothers helping, same as during the PAD test (Hali, IIRC was the one wearing the clown suite for that skit). But then people in khan land who screams of broliphuration, they are a legitimate target for counter allegations of this sort. Your posts(a couple of posts below mine) is to the point and I agree.

ramana wrote:
Manish_Sharma wrote: It is very very telling, but even while writing it the doubt the doubt that came to mind is again about the Khan satellites and small time window
Manish, the village was evacuvated in early morning of May 11 1998. The tests were in the afternoon (~3:45 pm) after the winds died down. So there was no issue of people being hurt. Please do look up the news of evacuvation at the village. After the tests the jholawalla brigade of the DDM went to the village to show damage and made a lot of noise.

Again why did K.Santy expect a 72m crater at that depth of 230m for S-I. Or was he hallucinating from the desert heat? Or didnt the BARc team tell him what they were testing as it was sacred poop or classified waste?

I think Manish-saar is trying to say is that planning to give out alternate housing et al would have made more people aware of something going on and could have been picked up within that short time window, let alone making them bundle up their belongings and make their way across the barren desert. Yeah, it could have been done over the years, but I think no one wanted to disturb any "local peoples" with satphones who started some NGO type organization in that little village. I mean that village conveniently collects such debris. convenient for some reasons, inconvenient for a biggie bum. btw, Manish-saar, your friends, cant they too get into the forum, now that it is open id season

?

vera_k wrote: I believe the intent in 1998 was not to create a deployable TN, but rather to a) force the Americans to negotiate and b) keep the option open to field a TN after further testing at a future date. If these were the goals, then the test series was certainly successful.

I do agree with vera_k on this. I think this was a validation of some design that can be worked on later. IIRC, Arun_S-ji mentioned something about valuable data that got collected after the second series of sub-kt bums. Being a jingo, loved those pictures of slender RVs with peanut shaped packages inside and starting running with it.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 24 Sep 2009 02:21

September 06, 2004 :: National security : Credible nuclear deterrence in place

Defence Minister Pranab Mukherjee has asserted that India has credible nuclear deterrence in place and specialised forces are being raised to tackle any nuclear threat in all its dimensions.

“Whatever is needed to safeguard the country and to ensure effective deterrence, in line with our nuclear doctrine of `no first use’, has been done,” Mukherjee said in an interview to a news agency on September 5.

Maintaining that the Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) had a definite time frame on test-firing of the country’s intermediate range 3000-km surface-to-surface ballistic missile Agni-III, the Defence Minister said India was committed to ‘no first use’ of nuclear weapons and non-use of these weapons against non-nuclear weapon states.

The Defence Minister also said that India had reached an understanding with its neighbouring countries to share information on missile test-firing.

Asked if safeguards had been taken against selective nuclear strikes on forces and on civilians, the Defence Minister replied, “We are raising specialised troops to tackle such threats”.

That is Pranab Da. Da.

Fooled.

Hmmmmmmmmmmmm.........................

Sanjay · Post by **Sanjay** » 24 Sep 2009 02:23

csharma, sometime earlier you asked if any TN weapons had been deployed.

I now recall that sometime in the period 1999-2004 Vasundhara Raje while MoS of Ext. Affairs gave an answer in the Rajya Sabha in which she said that the Indian deterrent is a combination of fission, low-yield and thermonuclear devices with yields up to 200kT. She used the word "is". I am recalling almost verbatim but I have stored the reference away and it will take a lot of time to locate.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 24 Sep 2009 02:27

Who is Mr Bhavnani?
I havent heard of him before.
----

Right after the tests in 1998 there was proposal to bifurcate the weapons work and the civlian work after RC retired. So its not a new thing. This was to be offered as part of the accomodation with the world. And guess who was to head the DROD section: K Santhanam. And now he is someone who didnt know what he was testing.

Until K Santhanam came flat-out there was this miniscule hope that BARC was right all along and will pull through and provide the unobtanium powered weapons. So all this downward revisions towards reality are a result of overcoming cognitive dissonance. Its better we not go tilting at Chinese windmills for we might get hit by the fan while it reacts to the blow...

Yeah I too recall some such statement.

vera_k · Post by **vera_k** » 24 Sep 2009 02:28

This was Vasundhara Raje's statement.

http://164.100.47.5:8080/members/Websit ... qref=17918

RAJYA SABHA
UNSTARRED QUESTION NO 2676
TO BE ANSWERED ON 17.08.2000
TESTING OF A NEUTRON BOMB

2676. SHRI K. RAHMAN KHAN

Will the Minister of ATOMIC ENERGY be pleased to state:-

(a) whether Government`s attention have been drawn to a news report which appeared in the Times of India on May 1, 2000 according to which the former chairperson of the Atomic Energy Commission Dr. P.K. Iyengar has favoured testing of a neutron bomb while addressing a meeting of scientists on `NPT and CTBT` recently in Bombay; and

(b) if so, what is Government`s reaction thereto?

ANSWER

THE MINISTER OF STATE IN THE DEPARTMENT OF ATOMIC ENERGY
(SMT. VASUNDHARA RAJE)

(a) Yes, Sir. Government is aware of the press report. On & the other hand, many experts believe that neutron bombs,

(b) also called enhanced radiation weapons, are essentially tactical weapons and have limited utility in terms of deterrence. Therefore, although capability for design of a neutron bomb exists, the Indian credible minimum nuclear deterrent is currently based on a range of possible weapons systems from low yields upto 200 kilotons involving fission, boosted fission and two- stage thermonuclear designs. Research and development on all aspects of the nuclear programme would continue.

Manish_Sharma · Post by **Manish_Sharma** » 24 Sep 2009 02:29

ramana wrote:OK. Its Charaka, the surgeon I mean.

Yes Ramana Charaka of famous Charak Sahinta and then their was another one who had done brain surgery on a king and also wrote a book. Always keep forgetting his name.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 24 Sep 2009 02:32

Thanks Vera_K. Looks like folks can stop attacking Arun_S and take it up with GOI.
----------------------------
Susruta the other medical expert.

Sanjay · Post by **Sanjay** » 24 Sep 2009 02:35

Vera_k that is the quote.

Ramana, Air Marshal Ajit Bhavani was former CO of the SFC. See his statement on page 99 of Karnad's India's Nuclear Policy. See also his comments on Sikka at page 82.

To me the key is Karnad cannot say 60-80KT weapons are not there without more proof - his argument in the op-ed piece is not entirely accurate. Santhanam as of now has not said so.

BARC has delivered to a point. What is needed is a GOI decision one way or the other decisively.

I reiterate my call for Santhanam to publish his findings in a scientific journal and for Sikka to do the same.

As far as Arun_S is concerned, I introduced him to the IDR and have no regrets. However, do not assume publishing there gives anything like academic review. Only a few of mine were ever vigorously peer reviewed prior to publishing and I had to do so outside the journal.

Incidentally, Santhanam was not universally respected within the armed forces. My first encounter with his name was in 1996 when serving and retired officers referred to him in quite scathing terms.

I don't believe such a view is justified - then or now - but neither is pouring scorn on RC and AK and Sikka.

Manish_Sharma · Post by **Manish_Sharma** » 24 Sep 2009 02:44

hnairji please don't call me saar, just plain Manish will do.
Thanks for clarifying my post. As for my friends one is a Kharadi (turner) sardar who is not good in english and not typist. Even I had to wait 2 years to get to BR until I got a private email address 'cause I paid 1/3rd amount to a friend buying a site for himself. Other is too intimidated and in awe of BR members actually we all are. But still I took the jump and here I am. After my first post was answered by Narayanan we all sat around the computer and read. First time in years that bottle of RCP stayed untouched. Very nice! Even last 2 years I was lurking in Naval, MRCA, War scenario pages etc. Never dared to read nuclear threads, as they are to complicated for simple buddhi.
But after Santhanam shock, I had to come here and try as much as I could understand.
Also I start seeing our fellow citizens in different light, as I have a couple of neighbours very aggressive, one beat up a guy just for parking scooter in his car place. But on the morning walk when I talked to him about this whole Nuclear, chipanda, porki problem. He was such a different man, I mean his views were on the line of "Come on why think of war with the neighbours, you know war does not good to anyone....... what the hell about AP give to them any buy peace." The guy could have beaten Gandhi and Gautam Buddh in saintliness.

Manish_Sharma · Post by **Manish_Sharma** » 24 Sep 2009 02:46

ramana wrote:Thanks Vera_K. Looks like folks can stop attacking Arun_S and take it up with GOI.
----------------------------
Susruta the other medical expert.

yess, yess I always forget his name. Thanks!

Masaru · Post by **Masaru** » 24 Sep 2009 02:49

NRao wrote: De-mated nukes - are they not under the Armed forces?
____________________

For the longest time the reports indicated them to be under civilian DAE control, only to be handed out as and when the need arises.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 24 Sep 2009 02:50

I dont know guys why folks want to take issue with us when the facts are facts. I mean enough has been alleged under influence of runaway members and green glasses.

Its a Minister of State of Union Govt elected to power who stated the range of Indian arsenal in the Lok Sabha. Similar information was used to develop pages and write articles. And our members are derided and their credibility is systematically attacked. People should pause and think if they are being used to deliver proxy attacks.
----------------------------
Sanjay its the govt always that makes the decision. Thanks for the quote. Will look up when I buy my copy of the book.

And K Subramanayamji and VSA themselves downgraded the 60kt-80kt things to 25kt after K Santhanam's outburst. This shows it wasn't based on any veracity.

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 24 Sep 2009 02:55

lets say we become pariah again, and test. i want it to be 1MT and not 60,80,200,300KT.. cause, if the 1MT fizzles out for Santanam again, then we atleast have a 200KT with us!

pisskological deterrance must be maintained.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 24 Sep 2009 03:04

Masaru wrote: For the longest time the reports indicated them to be under civilian DAE control, only to be handed out as and when the need arises.

Fine. Even then there had to be some time when someone there did not see a TN - like at all.

On the flip side everyone in (the know) the BARC/DAE/whatever had to know that K Santhanam is out there? And, that one day all this will be spilled? If not in 11 years, in 25 years?

I find it very hard to believe that a spin created in 1998 would go undetected in the halls of GoI for so long.

Or, wonder what they were putting into the casing that said "TN - handle with extra care" or the like.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 24 Sep 2009 03:07

They didnt expect him to break ranks of omerta. He answered a higher calling to the nation and not the coterie.

Raveen · Post by **Raveen** » 24 Sep 2009 03:08

NRao wrote: Or, wonder what they were putting into the casing that said "TN - handle with extra care" or the like.

TN Keep away from Santanam

But seriously, smells like ploy to re-test
or atleast avoid CTBT crap @ UN this time

hnair · Post by **hnair** » 24 Sep 2009 03:15

ramana wrote:Who is Mr Bhavnani?
I havent heard of him before.

He was heading SFC

remember seeing a picture of him taken by Jagan-saar when he visited Aero India.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 24 Sep 2009 03:18

OK.
So what did he comment in Karnad's book? Looks like remote chancce of my reading it early enough.

enqyoob · Post by **enqyoob** » 24 Sep 2009 03:25

Reading this thread, and its 2 predecessors, and all the threads during the Nuclear Deal tamasha, one might reach the following clear understanding:
1. In India, the Armed Forces, the Ministers, the Strategic Planners, are all ignorant, and are not cleared for the true Inside Knowledge.
2. If they need to realize what is in their missiles, planes etc. they have to come on BRF and learn from the people with the Real Inside Knowledge.

I haven't felt this IMPORTANT since I used to drive the Cochin Express by manipulating the window latches as a 6-year-old.

Regarding the Evacuation of Khetolai - I see a post by ramana explaining that the village was evacuated at dawn, with the tests being done in the afternoon.

But I am unable to reconcile that with the interview with the School Headmaster who said the Army came by in the morning and asked him to make sure that the kids were OUTSIDE for a couple of hours - around the testing period. AFAIK, Indian schools start at around 9 or 9:30, not at 5 or 6AM. So how did the parents get their kids off to school before evacuating the village that early?

Or did the Army evacuate the village in the early morning and drop the kids off at school because losing half a day's classes would be far worse than getting irradiated? Or did the parents say:

"Arre baacha! Tu school ja! Hum to yahan se door jayenge! Fauj Atim Bum Fijjal karne ke taiyyar karte hain! Yaheen rahna, acchee tarah oopar dekh, aur bolo fijjal hain ya sijjal! "

Does this make sense to anyone here? Anyone here have Indian parents? Eat rice as a child? (if not fish..)

I KNEW it! This is why Bill Gates allowed Indians to mass-pirate MS Word. The electrons have sijjiled the brains of most desis!
*******************************************

On the other Expert Opinion: If hajaar-MT bums are such a brilliant notion, how come the US and Russia are spending so much money REDUCING their number today as far as possible and turning them into light-bulb current? If 100 1-MT bums are minimum credible deterrent, then 100,000 should be hajaar times more deterrent, hain? Also, I believe the US, Britain, Germany and Japan all built massive BattleShips as their strategic weapons. Why does India not have a fleet of Battleships, then? Were these nations stupid, hain?

Manish_Sharma · Post by **Manish_Sharma** » 24 Sep 2009 03:29

ramana wrote: Manish, the village was evacuvated in early morning of May 11 1998. The tests were in the afternoon (~3:45 pm) after the winds died down. So there was no issue of people being hurt. Please do look up the news of evacuvation at the village. After the tests the jholawalla brigade of the DDM went to the village to show damage and made a lot of noise.

Again why did K.Santy expect a 72m crater at that depth of 230m for S-I. Or was he hallucinating from the desert heat? Or didnt the BARc team tell him what they were testing as it was sacred poop or classified waste?

See Ramana! This is what I wanted from you from the day one I read this Khetolai issue. Didn't see it this way that you are ignoring this point with the contempt it deserves, but thought it couldn't be argued against.
For whatever it is worth let this be a contribution from this jingoe that however absurd a point is raised it should be answered, else repeated again and again it taken roots in simple minds.

sudeepj · Post by **sudeepj** » 24 Sep 2009 03:59

narayanan wrote: On the other Expert Opinion: If hajaar-MT bums are such a brilliant notion, how come the US and Russia are spending so much money REDUCING their number today as far as possible and turning them into light-bulb current? If 100 1-MT bums are minimum credible deterrent, then 100,000 should be hajaar times more deterrent, hain? Also, I believe the US, Britain, Germany and Japan all built massive BattleShips as their strategic weapons. Why does India not have a fleet of Battleships, then? Were these nations stupid, hain?

The reason why US and Russia are engaged in arms reduction treaties is because the policies they wish to pursue and the entire context in which the city busters were developed, have changed. The policy has changed from one of confrontation to containment to one of commercial, political and industrial engagement today. In this context, certainly, city busters are rendered superfluous.

If the policy goals of the Indian govt. are as I had speculated in my last post (stop all possibility of a border war with China, stop Pakistani policy of destabilization, influence events in our neighborhood), it follows that city busters are needed.

What is telling is, that although city busters are being reduced by both Russia and USA, both the govts. and China have made no indication that they will ever completely phase out these weapons. Apart from that, they are all trying their level best to ensure that no other country gets their hands on this technology.

If the city busters are so useless now, that they are like battleships - over taken by technological advances, why would so much effort be wasted on trying to limit their spread?

The answer is simple.. these weapons are not the blunderbuss/battleships that Narayanan makes them out to be, they are the ultimate weapons in this world. Powerful tools to guarantee own interests and policies.

samuel · Post by **samuel** » 24 Sep 2009 04:08

OK, then, my turn:

Ra Ra Khetolai
Lover of the Pokhran dream
There was a sizzle that really was gone
RA RA fizzle steam
India's greatest bomb machine
It's a shame how it carries on

Sanjay · Post by **Sanjay** » 24 Sep 2009 04:13

Ramana, that is not correct.

To say they downgraded it means it has no veracity is at best a misinterpretation.

This is what they said in the Hindu:

"It is irrelevant whether the destruction is caused by 150 kt weapons or 25 kt weapons. Obviously, it is not infra-dig for a 3,500-km range missile to carry a 25 kt warhead. Cost-effectiveness calculations have no meaning since the nuclear war itself has no meaning. In a mega-city struck by a couple of 25 kt warheads, apart from the hundreds of thousands of dead, there will be an equal number of people wounded and more people affected by radiation; all of whom will be envying the dead. One of us is revisiting the calculations involved in predicting the extent of destruction inflicted by nuclear weapons. Our preliminary results suggest that that even with 25kt fission bombs, the damages are going to be far more and extensive than what Hiroshima and Nagasaki suffered given the higher population densities in the cities of China and South Asia and the urban development of recent years"

That simply means what it says - nothing more.

He did not at anytime say that India only has 25KT weapons. He was responding to a Santhanam statement regarding the Agni-3 warhead.

In the Tribune he said:

"Fission weapons of 60-80 kilotons have been successfully fabricated..."

Where is the contradiction ?

Did he say, well only 25kt weapons exist ? No he did not.

He responded to Santhanam's comments about it not being feasible for A-3 to mount only a 25kt weapon.

The veracity of the latter comment is in no way contradicted by the former.

You are interpreting it one way.

I am saying that based on the raw statements, that interpretation is in itself subjective.

Regarding Bhavani, at page 99 in Karnad's India's Nuclear Policy (please also note the reference I made to Srinivasan's comments on page 68 of his book at earlier in this thread) he says:
"It has been time consuming for the political bosses to understand what's a demated situation, what's a mated situation, why we should have a mated situation and when a de-mated situation...But once they were made to understand we are now in a good situation. This level of understanding was achieved between the Strategic Forces Command and the Prime Minister's Office."

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 24 Sep 2009 04:43

Anyone who has read Bharat Karnad's book, "India's Nuclear Policy", - does he ever mention that there is an asterisk next to "thermonuclear"?

TIA.

Sanjay · Post by **Sanjay** » 24 Sep 2009 05:02

He does cast serious doubt on the capability.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 24 Sep 2009 05:14

So, ............................ Strat Force Command, PMO, Chiefs of three forces, Babus, University Professors, perhaps 1000's ...................... all were gaming, planning, setting policy, understanding de/mating, writing books, discussing, snooping, etc ................... for ALL these years with a asterisk next to the TN ................ !!!!

I guess the asterisk was crated for Indian leadership.

China's snooping budget must have gone to 0 by now.

enqyoob · Post by **enqyoob** » 24 Sep 2009 05:19

And again, as contemptible as it may be to those who want to wish it away, simple minds like mine continue to question:

Manish, the village was evacuvated in early morning of May 11 1998. The tests were in the afternoon (~3:45 pm) after the winds died down. So there was no issue of people being hurt. Please do look up the news of evacuvation at the village. After the tests the jholawalla brigade of the DDM went to the village to show damage and made a lot of noise.

There is no possibility that Indian villagers will "evacuate" leaving their children in school. The school was asked to ensure that children were not in their classrooms when the tests were made - but they were told that it would be OK for them to be outside.

And as far as I know, the villagers were not evacuated, they were asked to stand outside their homes. So the worst that was expected was a shaking that might knock things down from shelves on their heads, etc.

As it happened, there was enough of a shaking (est. 5.2 to 5.4 Richter scale), and we have clearly seen that such quakes have caused many deaths even in Australia and Italy, where construction techniques are not less advanced than in Khetolai.

The Jholawalas may have pointed to the damage, but that's because the damage was there. The photos were pretty clear on that. And the report that the village water tank was cracked was also posted here.

These points have been raised ad nauseum, precisely because of the many here who have been trying to ignore them.

And finally, Dr. K. Santanam himself is on record as having declared (before he became a Director of this or that political entity) that the yield was constrained by the issue of ensuring safety of Khetolai.

No escape from these facts. It does not matter whether the tests were at 3:45 pm or how deep the crater was expected to be. If the yield had been substantially greater, the damage would have been catastrophic, whether people had died or not. If people had died, Santanam etc. would be in jail now.

Regarding the MT bums and ICBMs, the issue of why that route is the same as building battleships in 2009, was discussed at length during the Civilian Nuclear Deal discussion and other discussions. Thanks, but I don't want to engage in trying to explain that to people who cannot "understand" the simple Khetolai argument.

In the 1930s, it looked like a great idea to build the Maginot Line, most Impregnable Defense, absolutely essential for National H&D.

And going to war with puny horses seemed so SDRE to the Indian kings who had ELEPHANTS!

Such things never seem stupid until it is far too late. Always "safer" to plan to fight by the textbook. Exactly as the last war was won.

Sanjay · Post by **Sanjay** » 24 Sep 2009 05:43

NRao - not true. In 2002 the armed forces were fully appraised of the limitations. General Padmanabhan asked and was told TN were not weaponised. Nobody counted on the TN except in nice books. However, he was told that fission and FBF were weaponised...

sudeepj · Post by **sudeepj** » 24 Sep 2009 05:54

narayanan wrote: Regarding the MT bums and ICBMs, the issue of why that route is the same as building battleships in 2009, was discussed at length during the Civilian Nuclear Deal discussion and other discussions. Thanks, but I don't want to engage in trying to explain that to people who cannot "understand" the simple Khetolai argument.

Nice downhill skiing.. Your Khetolai argument has no legs to stand on.. you are cherry picking some sentences out of news reports, take them out of context and pretend that an evacuation never happened, when there are many reports to the contrary.

In the 1930s, it looked like a great idea to build the Maginot Line, most Impregnable Defense, absolutely essential for National H&D.

And going to war with puny horses seemed so SDRE to the Indian kings who had ELEPHANTS!

Such things never seem stupid until it is far too late. Always "safer" to plan to fight by the textbook. Exactly as the last war was won.

Ok.. so technologies become obsolete, but does that mean that a city buster has become obsolete? This is nothing but NPA propaganda.

Satya_anveshi · Post by **Satya_anveshi** » 24 Sep 2009 06:17

# of Indians killed in bombay riots
# of Indians killed in ahmedabad riots
# of indians killed in Kargil
# of indians killed in war with China
# of indians killed in war with Pakistan
# of indians killed by LTTE in SL
# of Indians killed by terrorists in kashmir
# of Indians killed by any top 10 diseases in India
# of Indians killed in accident

AND MOST IMPORTANT

# of Indians who will be killed due to NOT showcasing our FULL nuke capability and yield and thereby rendering India vulnerable

far outwiegh the # of Indians mentioned to be present in Khetolai. They were not even supposed to be killed but just taken away.

IF this is the reason for not showing the full yield, I would say GOI, BARC, and all manner of "experts" justifying such logic are either mass murderers or accomplices or at the least sympathisers in mass murders.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 24 Sep 2009 06:24

sudeepj wrote: (3) Have our weapons created space for us at the high table? - Yes.

<snip>

Before members go on tangents about how much suffering a 25KT weapons shall create, please ask and try to answer the question as to why the P5 acquired and maintained - and continue to do so in an interconnected world - City Busters*.

(*) say, 250KT-MT level weapons.

May I respectfully point out a contradiction in your post?

India is hardly "high table" material, and even the desire of Indians to follow the example set by the P5 shows us to be followers rather than leaders.

If India was world leader material we would be doing things to lead the world and no following and not desperately saying I want a seat there.

If you lay aside the false jingo-giri and the good life that being an Indian eliteman gives you - India is a pretty rubbishy nation with the largest numbers of people suffering from things that most people in the world have got over - like a guarantee that a pregnant woman will come out of pregnancy with both mother and child alive and the child will reach age 5 without becoming a statistic.

The figures are there for anyone to see - no need for CORRTEX or Radiochem or a whistleblower delayed by decades. Sorry to go OT. Let us get off this "high table" business please.

OK P5 did a whole lot of things? Does India have the balls to do half the things done by the P5? Does someone think that if we explode 2 x 250 kt nukes next week all will be well.

Let's all smoke the same stuff.

hnair · Post by **hnair** » 24 Sep 2009 06:24

Sanjay wrote: Ramana, Air Marshal Ajit Bhavani was former CO of the SFC. See his statement on page 99 of Karnad's India's Nuclear Policy. See also his comments on Sikka at page 82.

ramana wrote:Who is Mr Bhavnani?
I havent heard of him before.

Sanjay-saar, you have been spelling Air Marshal Shree Bhavnani's name wrong in atleast two places in this thread, that is why the confusion happened

Same might happen in the case of General Padmanabhan

Manish_Sharma wrote:hnairji please don't call me saar, just plain Manish will do.
Thanks for clarifying my post. As for my friends one is a Kharadi (turner) sardar who is not good in english and not typist. Even I had to wait 2 years to get to BR until I got a private email address 'cause I paid 1/3rd amount to a friend buying a site for himself. Other is too intimidated and in awe of BR members actually we all are. But still I took the jump and here I am. After my first post was answered by Narayanan we all sat around the computer and read. First time in years that bottle of RCP stayed untouched. Very nice! Even last 2 years I was lurking in Naval, MRCA, War scenario pages etc. Never dared to read nuclear threads, as they are to complicated for simple buddhi..

My regards to your sardar friend, we need more people like him, who dont squander away their time in the web

sudeepj wrote: Ok.. so technologies become obsolete, but does that mean that a city buster has become obsolete? This is nothing but NPA propaganda.

sudeepj, you are right. some device has to bust the cities. And such a device is still there in the countries you mentioned. But it has evolved from a big airdropped bum to a rocket carrying lots of bums. one single, terminal counter-measure prone bomb carried in a huge lazy bomber to multiple smaller ones shot from long distances at great speeds. A single TridentII for example can cause much more headache for a city defender than a Tupolev trundling in a tsar bomba. And with far higher reliability. That I think is the advance some people here are talking about here - from 4000lb bunker buster to small diameter bombs, explosive power gets refined and more focused. And if the Teller-Ulam cartoons (read it somewhere

) are right, the difficulty is in making them burst smaller, not larger. For making it bigger, you only need a genius like Khruschev or scientists who actually did not do due diligence and tossed gasoline along with The Shrimp into the barbie.

I am not going into any radii of destruction falling off with higher yeilds getting dissipated etc. as some have rather eloquently explained that earlier in the thread. But that too matters. We are not privy to what happened down the years, but I guess ICBM designers and GAO bean-counters must have had a big say in this whole thing - the rakkit-mards promised to deliver accurately and GAO babus, ever ready to quote such claims, must have asked the bum-ticklers "why this much pu/u, guy, when we know Chacha Mobutu can be stringed up by his own people any minute?". All pure conjecture, of course.

Gerard · Post by **Gerard** » 24 Sep 2009 06:27

# of Indians who will be killed due to NOT showcasing our FULL nuke capability and yield and thereby rendering India vulnerable

How would TN weapons prevent any of the deaths above?

Did the Tsar Bomba prevent the deaths at Beslan? The Moscow Theater siege?
Did Ivy-Mike prevent 9-11 ?

Sanjay · Post by **Sanjay** » 24 Sep 2009 06:31

Shiv, I agree with you. The two issues are not exclusive but surely the power to improve things in India is there in spite of the government inertia. People have to start caring.

sudeepj · Post by **sudeepj** » 24 Sep 2009 06:33

shiv wrote:
sudeepj wrote: (3) Have our weapons created space for us at the high table? - Yes.

<snip>

Before members go on tangents about how much suffering a 25KT weapons shall create, please ask and try to answer the question as to why the P5 acquired and maintained - and continue to do so in an interconnected world - City Busters*.

(*) say, 250KT-MT level weapons.

May I respectfully point out a contradiction in your post?

India is hardly "high table" material, and even the desire of Indians to follow the example set by the P5 shows us to be followers rather than leaders.

If India was world leader material we would be doing things to lead the world and no following and not desperately saying I want a seat there.

The figures are there for anyone to see - no need for CORRTEX or Radiochem or a whistleblower delayed by decades. Sorry to go OT. Let us get off this "high table" business please.

OK P5 did a whole lot of things? Does India have the balls to do half the things done by the P5? Does someone think that if we explode 2 x 250 kt nukes next week all will be well.

Let's all smoke the same stuff.

Shivji,

I have simply tried to speculate what policy goals might be. Its not my contention that these are the 'set in stone' goals or even desirable goals. From my point of view, they are what amounts to a reasonable first cut. Considering that you are bashing one out of the four that I had listed, the other three sound reasonable, no?

Further, you seem to be in agreement with the overall thesis of the post: City busters are not war fighting weapons, they are simply meant to create sufficient options/pressure points, that allow us to pursue our strategic goals.

sudeepj · Post by **sudeepj** » 24 Sep 2009 06:35

Gerard wrote:
# of Indians who will be killed due to NOT showcasing our FULL nuke capability and yield and thereby rendering India vulnerable
How would TN weapons prevent any of the deaths above?

Did the Tsar Bomba prevent the deaths at Beslan? The Moscow Theater siege?
Did Ivy-Mike prevent 9-11 ?

No, but it did create options for Putin to pursue. He could hammer Georgia, pound Chechnya into rubble..

Whether these options worked or not is another matter, but he did have an option to pursue all kinds of actions. This option was created by Tsar Bomba/Ivy Mike (in case of the USA and 9-11 aftermath).

John Snow · Post by **John Snow** » 24 Sep 2009 06:37

Shivji looks like you id has been hacked by Prafool Bidwai.?

The reasons you mention are absolutely right, India has no business to be in Nuclear weapons or Arihant like boats.

If we cease to make Arihant we will not have Ari in the first place no?

We can always talk away our differences with PRC, Pakis etc.

Down Size AEC save pregnant women and children is the enlightened path. The current situation is we are neither here nor there.

We should listen President Obama and sign everything he says, this way can be leaders in disarmament, which we profess anyway!

**
Gerad sir you are absolutely right, the existing 25 Kt to 200 Kt has not prevented state sponsored non state actors from attacking India. I am surprised however that India has been deterred by TSPs 18 Kt to 19 kt.

Probably Shiv ji can explain in lucid terms.

***
sp fixed

PratikDas · Post by **PratikDas** » 24 Sep 2009 06:41

I don't think this one has been discussed yet... apologies if mistaken

Government rubbishes claims that Pohkhran-II was failure
On Board Air India One, September 24, 2009

The government has rubbished the claim by a retired senior scientist that the nuclear tests India conducted 11 years ago were a failure and questioned the timing of his statement.

"He is a perennial doubter. Why has he waited for five years of the UPA (United Progressive Alliance) government to make the claim?" a top government official said referring to the claim by the former scientist with a state-run agency.

"Out of eight different tests, one may not have yielded the same set of results that we may have talked about. But the rest of the seven have been a success," the official said on condition of anonymity, during an informal interaction with journalists accompanying Prime Minister Manmohan Singh on way to Pittsburgh, US, for the G20 Summit.

Which one?

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 24 Sep 2009 06:43

Link

Regarding Bharat Karnad's rant - he uses some powerful rhetoric that can easily be swept aside by the usual parties. He does not make the case any stronger by using strong language

But before I get to that - I would like to ask Bharat Karnad why I do not find Chinese megaton nukes any more frightening than Chinese kiloton nukes? His rhetoric is impressive but ill thought out in my view.

If a Chinese kiloton nuke wipes out South Bangalore and I am left alive in the North - I am not going to laugh and say "Nyahaha - you didn't get me

" And if a megaton nuke takes out most of Bangalore - and takes me with it - it is probably less frightening.

But let me come to anassertion that Karnad makes that can be dissmised. Even open source links show that a moderately advanced country can make thermonuclear bombs on simulation alone. The fact that Karnad leaves out in his anxiety to make people more scared of mt nukes is that if you make big bums from simulation alone and do not test them - you have no proof that they will work. What is needed is testing and not a rant. But I do accept that in India rants work - the downside is that counter rants are also made.

Karnad has sadly failed and has himself produced a fizzle by filling up his article with quotable quotes like a college boy fresh out of high school. Even I can make better arguments for testing and not signing CTBT but I wil restrict myself to lampooning only for now.

Quotes:

Chidambaram & Co must be sweating bricks

Naturally they are not bothered. The expression is "sh1tting bricks" which is more painful.

For one thing, the hydrogen bomb can inspire dread and is truly ‘frightening’

- Rubbish. It is no more frightening than Little Boy or Fat Man

Finally, just the threat of incoming Chinese Dongfeng-21 IRBMs carrying warheads in the 1-3.3 megaton range would so psychologically cripple Indian political leaders with only 20 KT firecrackers to bank on, they will likely throw in the towel.

- this is a most laughable assertion. This shows that Karnad is an Anglophone eliteman who does not understand Indians but chooses to use the piskology word when he feels like using it.

Sorry Karnad ji. Try again.

Satya_anveshi · Post by **Satya_anveshi** » 24 Sep 2009 06:48

Gerard wrote:how would TN weapons prevent any of the deaths above?
Did the Tsar Bomba prevent the deaths at Beslan? The Moscow Theater siege?
Did Ivy-Mike prevent 9-11 ?

Agreed my list included war time and non-war time casualties. The point I was making is two fold:

a) that GOI or the powers that be though not willingly but in a criminally negligent manner and many times knowing fully well that their inactions in plethora of dealings lead to further slaughtering of citizens. This sensitivity towards protecting a village residences (not people) even in once in life time opportunity makes the story stupid. If it is true it is again criminal negligence bordering on willful (future) slaughter of Indians.

b1) Beslan was a terrorist incident; Russian soldiers did not get killed (in significant numbers) in combat with US or any other nation while defending their nation. That basically proves my point.
b2) 9-11 also was a terrorist activity. No combat situation. Further, it is a bad example because India unlike US is not going and plundering other nations wealth, resources to invite such attacks.

Can we then agree that we will lessen future combative casualities if we had demonstrated out full capability instead of being in Trishanku as of today?

I completely agree with the analysis put forward by Sudeep that bada bomb will give us strategic space for policy and dealing with the world on fairer terms. We can start to focus on Pakistan completely because no other nation will dare to meddle and get into combative situation with India.