China Military Watch

manjgu · Post by **manjgu** » 24 Sep 2009 12:49

Frankly, i dont have any handy info either on indian or chinese subs... but i refuse to believe that the chinese have left their sub fleet to become so outdated ( in the face of substantial moderization of their surface fleet and other fighting arms).. ... and Rahul we are on real thin ice if we believe that they cant undertake ptrols into IOR ( can i ask what is your source and how are you so sure??) , are as noisy as a indian wedding etc etc... further the american assessment of what is noisy or not is as per their resources/technology ( the same analogy might not apply with indians ...). If you have recent updates on chinese sub fleet , please do share with us. If the things are as you say, was the naval chief incorrect in his assessment?

Rahul, but the more important point is for how long will you interdict the shipping.... will you do it after the ceasefire has been called? will you interdict chinese shipping or ships showing a different flag? what prevents the paki sub fleet from taking pot shots ( who will verify who shot up a indian ship ..naval or otherwise)?

Rahul M · Post by **Rahul M** » 24 Sep 2009 13:23

manjgu wrote:Frankly, i dont have any handy info either on indian or chinese subs. {then that's the first thing you should do }.. but i refuse to believe {well if you bring beliefs and faith into this we might just call it a day}that the chinese have left their sub fleet to become so outdated ( in the face of substantial moderization of their surface fleet and other fighting arms){again, I'm not saying the fleet as a whole is outdated (only 40% is completely obsolete) but operating in IOR is not a priority for them when the entire might of USN, JMSDF, RoCN and RoKN are waiting on their doorstep. even the upgradation of surface fleet is overrated. do check out the number of modern ships in PLAN sirface fleet. the point is it will become a extremely powerful force in the future, it is not there yet. and yes, the lack of training is a fact. just 5 years ago it was widely reported that PLAN helo pilots don't train to fly during the night ! that would be simply unthinkable in IN !}.. ... and Rahul we are on real thin ice if we believe that they cant undertake ptrols into IOR ( can i ask what is your source and how are you so sure??) {there are oodles of serious info on the net. it's not some one source hidden away in MOD. I don't know why you think that we are on thin ice. there's no ice in IOR AFAIK ! all you have to do is go through the numerous sources on the capabilities of PLAN submarines, their threat perception and strategy (whatever we know of it). It's no magic really, the info is all out there. all you got to do is read it.} , are as noisy as a indian wedding etc etc... {regarding that please do read up and google. spoon-feeding is really not encouraged on BR. if you are not prepared to prepare yourself with basic info why should other people go through the effort of trying to convice you ? it's like explaining quantum mechanics to someone with class X science knowledge. at the very least he/she should learn up to class XII level physics and maths !
makes sense ?
in this case I have had additional input that hydrodynamicaly speaking the PLAN SSBNs are very poorly designed from noise considerations. but that only confirms what is already open source} further the american assessment of what is noisy or not is as per their resources/technology ( the same analogy might not apply with indians ...). If you have recent updates on chinese sub fleet , please do share with us. If the things are as you say, was the naval chief incorrect in his assessment?
Adm Mehta is a very intelligent man, of course we are behind and need to improve. that said, the gap is in capabilities (mind it this is inherently linked to our strategy. if our strategy is to dominate the south china sea, we are way way behind. similarly, the chinese are way behind if they want to project power in IOR.) not as much as is made out to be by our sensationalist media.
but, what better way to get much needed funding than this ?
Rahul, but the more important point is for how long will you interdict the shipping {you don't need to interdict shipping that way. the vessels pass through malacca straits. you need to blockade that chokepoint. the alternative routes would again pass through straits in the indonesian archipelago IOW more choke points.}.... will you do it after the ceasefire has been called? will you interdict chinese shipping or ships showing a different flag? what prevents the paki sub fleet from taking pot shots ( who will verify who shot up a indian ship ..naval or otherwise)?

could you please go through this post and the next couple of pages worth of discussions ?
http://forums.bharat-rakshak.com/viewto ... 77#p690077

and this.
http://forums.bharat-rakshak.com/viewto ... 63#p711163

manjgu · Post by **manjgu** » 24 Sep 2009 14:33

And for how long will you put a blockade ... even after a ceasefire is called ?

Will you also blockade ships showing a different flag going to china?

How many IN vessels will be available to put up a blockade and also hunt to the chinese rust buckets who may be lying in wait in the arabian sea for indian shipping?

manjgu · Post by **manjgu** » 24 Sep 2009 14:50

ok..so we have a fleet of approx 8 destroyers, 12-13 frigates, 20 corvettes ..assuming that 60% of this fleet is up ( which is a very high figure)..

so we have approx 4-5 destroyers, 7-8 frigates, 12 corvettes for the blockade + securing our fuel line from the gulf + protecting our off shore assets.. and all these to be supplied at sea .. i need to get these estimates vetted by some navy chap.... will revert.

VikB · Post by **VikB** » 24 Sep 2009 16:49

Rahul M - hats off to you for your patience.

Manjgu - do not argue for the sake of it. By your own admission you dont know much. Though Rahul pointed it out but you are still ranting - what do you mean by 'securing our fuel line from the gulf' ? Secure it from whom? If Chini cant reach then protect from whom?

If you are doing the analysis of IN assets available for war, do the same for Chini also. And dont forget to consider who is playing how far from the home base.

And please, dont post too many times. Get your thoughts together and post concisely. Plus do go through the earlier posts. Not one of your posts has added to the knowledge of the forum.

chanakyaa · Post by **chanakyaa** » 24 Sep 2009 17:34

BRFites,

Has there been a discussion thread on Chini's ability to knock down communication satellites and IN capabilities? I would appreciate a link...
Thanks u

Nihat · Post by **Nihat** » 24 Sep 2009 17:50

hard to imagine that they have the capabilities to shoot down enemy satellites , shooting down ones own satellite is much easier in comparison. The exact coordinates should be available and it needs pin point and real time intelligence.

manjgu · Post by **manjgu** » 24 Sep 2009 18:54

vik B... all of us here are armchair warriors.. learning a byte and sometimes educating a bit.

i dont know how did you conclude that they cant reach our supply lines? the point i was making that our fleet will be split to to different tasks.. so are there enough resources to do it?

and I am still waiting for an answer to my remaining questions.. pl organise your thoughts and reply if you have some something to offer.

chanakyaa · Post by **chanakyaa** » 24 Sep 2009 19:14

Nihat wrote:hard to imagine that they have the capabilities to shoot down enemy satellites , shooting down ones own satellite is much easier in comparison. The exact coordinates should be available and it needs pin point and real time intelligence.

Thanks. I Agree and hope it stays that way. And I also hope they don't decided to throw several million dollars to disgruntled/defector IN insider to obtain and pin point IN sats in space. It is so easy for them to do that. US and RUSSIEs can know down sats flying as high as 500-700 miles in sky..

manjgu · Post by **manjgu** » 24 Sep 2009 19:34

a good intro to china sub fleet at http://www.sinodefence.com/navy/sub/default.asp

of a total of 55 subs

12 Kilo class + 16 song class - are modern class subs

2 shang class + 2 jin class - are modern N subs...

vs

from BR

Sindhugosh (Kilo) Class 10 in service [1 undergoing mid-life refit]
Shishumar (HDW 209) Class 4 in service
Kalvari (Foxtrot) Class 2 in service [1 undergoing refit ] Of these the Kalvari Class (NATO : Foxtrot) are on the verge of being retired.

Does this look to be a very one sided affair??

Prasanth · Post by **Prasanth** » 24 Sep 2009 21:27

As much as I would like to believe that all things Chinese are inferior, but reality tells me otherwise. {which reality ? I'm yet to see any backing info and you have already presented the conclusion !!}

The reality is people buy their arms. Egypt bought K-8s when they have choice from other countries. Malaysia bought KS-1A missiles when they have choice from Western countries. Even Arabs buy their PLZ-45 howitzers. The reality is nobody ever bought arms from us. Who are we to comment on their ‘quality’ when no one even bothers to buy ours unless of course we offer them as ‘aid’? My point is not all their things are inferior; we mustn’t be too extreme on our views. By thinking all things Chinese are inferior; we are assuming nothing good comes out from their industry. I am not saying you said all their things are inferior, I am just saying we shouldn’t say all their things are inferior, a general comment. Do not argue for the sake of arguing. Bring new ideas or information to enrich a debate.

Firstly, nothing is mentioned about the definition of ‘extended patrols’ from the FAS report, does it include routine exercises and training? {'routine exercise' != 'training', don't use those terms interchangeably. secondly, FAS didn't call PLAN submarine patrols 'extended patrol'. patrol would be assumed to be 'combat patrol' i.e an exercise where at a minimum, the sub acts as an attack platform patrolling the waters of interest to its country, not just a submersible ship.}

Come on; catch me on something more critical, not things like routine exercises and training are the same. By doing this, you seem to be getting personal. Mr. Rahul, you haven’t enlightened me what the US Navy definition of patrol is; none of my questions are answered. The reality is we do not know what the definition of the US Navy patrol is. All you did was assuming. For god’s sake, area of interest could be from the Arctic to South America, all these are also interesting areas for them. Do you know what their areas of interest are? They already are an attack platform once armed with torpedoes and moving. You are assuming they are dumb idiots building multi-billion weaponry to be stored at port? If their ship patrol to Singapore, is that considered a ‘patrol’ by US Navy standards? No assumption please, it’s a simple yes or no question.

FAS>

It is assumed that a patrol in this case involves an extended voyage far enough from the submarine’s base to be different from a brief training exercise.

How far to do you need to travel to constitute a patrol?. We need to look at this issue in a logical sense, they have the money to spend on their naval training, they have the equipment, and they have access to Russian training procedures, so what's preventing them from patroling?
{unfortunately simple logic doesn't always work. if it did the arab armed forces would have been the best trained in the world, they satisfy all the conditions you mention and some have access to american and european training. institutional psyche etc count for a lot. }

Are you sure Arab forces are not well trained, or you assumed again based on your own prejudice? They may not be the best in the world, but are you sure Indian forces are superior? Any facts to back this up?
So, you are arguing that Indian psyche is better hence we are better trained? This was also the same assumption when we fought the 1962 war. The fact remains that they kick our arse and we did nothing to fight back. Aksai Chin is still with them, Tibet is still with them and the only reason Ladakh was spared is because they couldn’t hold their logistical lines there. They did advance to that area and pulled back. You may argue they retreated but why didn’t we stop them from advancing in the first place?

Besides that, the second most powerful nuclear country Russia, conducted even less extended patrols than China? {why is that surprising ? russian military's funding woes are well known.}Any idea how many 'patrols' we conducted? {any sub that's not on refit goes on patrol at least once a year, sometimes more.}

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_co ... penditures

Russia doesn’t import much arms and they spend more militarily than India. So now you are assuming Russia have inferior training to India? Oh, their corruption is also less than India. So let me conclude this logically, India with less money more corruption is training better. God, then India is already a Supapowwah!!! Remember this is not the old 1989 Russia with no cash and the soldiers eat cat food. It is really funny when we are a third world country with starving people buying Russian arms, ‘assimilating’ Russian technology and yet we can think Indians are better trained. If it’s better trained, you won’t see planes falling like dead flies in India. Do you have the US navy information on Indian patrols? I want you to use their definition. If you can prove to me we patrol more than the chinis and the ruskies by US NAVAL DEFINITION, I would be the happiest man alive.

Another thing, how do we know their subs are noisy? {the same way we 'know' that LA class are quiet, old russian subs are noisy and so on. IOW USN/intel reports made public. they called PLAN sub designs 'most noisy nuke subs ever made'. the Han also had serious problems with radiation and crew frequently became sick. you are free to disbelieve them. the SSBNs (both xia and jin) however don't need such reports to prove they are noisy. those shapes can be anything but quiet.}

So this is again coming from your assumption. Can you provide me information showing how noisy is their sub. Just Han, Jin and Shang will do. This are their latest subs right? How does it compare to our subs? KILOS are not Old Russian subs? Any information on what sickness the sailors got? Seasick? Radiation sickness? How old were the reports? 20 years ago when the first Han was built? Did they solve the radiation problem? The noise problem? After 20 years are we assuming they are idle and letting things happen? Hmm, this happen to be the freaking country that is grabbing us by the balls building bases in IOR and snatching our gas in Burma. Think!

What sources? Which sub design is the noisiest? I doubt their latest subs are the noisiest. Who is the source that their sub is the noisiest? The fact remains they were undetected by an advance carrier group. So let us think logically, we have neither evidence nor information on how noisy their subs are or which is the noisiest sub or how the noisy sub compares to Indian subs or are KILOS considered Old Russian subs? But we did have one evidence; they remained UNDETECTED by the carrier group.

So now by looking at the shape you know it’s noisy? Great….. No wonder we can launch subs without a reactor and tell the whole wide world.

Code: Select all

How does it compare to our indigenous subs (if we have one)? [color=#FF0000]{[b]if you don't even know that what are you doing giving expert-commentary on IN vs PLAN sub strengths ? [/b] :eek: }[/color] Even their older non-nuke albeit upgraded attack subs came near a carrier group undetected. There were also news report that they detected our subs and force it to surface. I doubt they forced us to surface but if they are able to detect our subs and even the Americans cannot detect theirs, then we have a serious problem!  [color=#FF0000]{again, you are simply ill-informed. that 'incident' was simply a case of wet dreams by the chinese editor}[/color] :evil:

It’s sarcasm, the fact remains we don’t have an indigenous submarine yet. I am not giving EXPERT commentary. I am a free citizen of India giving my own opinion. I am not sure about that incident but I know what (Ret) Admiral Mehta said about their threat and India cannot compare.

manjgu · Post by **manjgu** » 24 Sep 2009 21:50

prasanth, their kilo, jin and song class are of fairly recent vintage.. ( not exactly lee enfields that rahul provided as an analogy) and also the numbers.

Another point is that chinese N subs may be more noisy as compared to American N subs but how is their noise level compared to our conventional disel subs is the moot point.

just for the heck of it, i was seeing distance of strait of malacaa from say mumbai ( where i beleive quite a few subs are based) and that from the chinese mainland... its quite comparable .

Plus we are not any wiser about the ROE and the duration of the said blockade.

VikB, u r right i do make more posts since i am mixing office work with occassional forays/patrols into BR and again retreating into office space. my ships are short legged..need frequent replenishments

)

Rahul M · Post by **Rahul M** » 24 Sep 2009 22:41

manjgu, the lee enfield analogy was for the other components of the PLAN fleet, the mings and romeos which I find you too have omitted from your list.

also, you have missed out the newest SSK the 041, based upon the kilo.

anyway you are missing the fact that subs can't operate through the malacca straits.
the scenario I described isn't a sub vs sub slugfest.

just for the heck of it, i was seeing distance of strait of malacaa from say mumbai ( where i beleive quite a few subs are based) and that from the chinese mainland... its quite comparable .

and so ? you calculated the distance from the farthest Indian naval base from malacca straits while ignoring the IN submarine command located much nearer at vizag !

btw, what gives you the idea we need subs to establish a blockade ?

p.s. I appreciate your efforts to at least look up the fleets. if you read up the discussion links I gave it would be even better.

animesharma · Post by **animesharma** » 25 Sep 2009 01:16

Nihat wrote:hard to imagine that they have the capabilities to shoot down enemy satellites , shooting down ones own satellite is much easier in comparison. The exact coordinates should be available and it needs pin point and real time intelligence.

If not today, then in future.
Technology is words in dictionary. The author can recite a poem or abuse, depending on what he wants. India needs to be careful, in next 50 years, space will join land,sea and air for next war frontier.
But then, india is not in habit of thinking for that long...the system only thinks of next 5 years at max.

manjgu · Post by **manjgu** » 25 Sep 2009 07:55

rahul, i am taking this oppurtunity to read up ( while doing office work as well

) ) . the discussion is a follow up on the theory that indian can respond to chinese incursion in the mountain with a naval blockade .. .. the points i am making are as under

a) chinese have a fairly capable sub fleet ( with atleast 25 subs of fairly new vintage out of their total complement of 55 ).. And i understand that subs are not the best instruments to enforce a blockade . My point is that this chinese sub fleet poses a very very potent threat to any indian surface combatants which will be primarily enforcing a blockade. Does IN have the capability to confront such a sub force ??

the number and vintage of chinese subs at least is much better than indian sub fleet ( 8 of their 10 kilos are the newer versions of kilos!!) . further, they have been raising tempo of their activities/ patrols steadily over the years..

i do need to read up more on chinese surface ships. but what i have learnt is that both indian and chinese are having russian designed vessels for both their surface and sub fleet.

b) further, the india surface fleet is neither that numerous or has the capability to stay away from home for extended periods of time ( this is based primarily talking to friends who serve in the indian navy.. i once worked on a naval software project at wesse) or to do multiple tasks like enforcing a blockade, protecting indian interests in arabian sea and proving security to indian shipping in general.

c) and i dont think it is correct to equate arabs and chinese. chinese to the best of knowledge are a intelligent race and not duffers like the arabs / pakis and have abosrbed/adapted to new tech very well. chinese as we know are technologically advanced than indians in many spheres. I dont know the basis of your argument that chinese cant be as well trained as we are?

d) i take your point regarding vizag.. the distance calculation excercise was just fun... but i do understand that it offers us advantages.

e) and you have till date not replied to what the probable ROE ( will indian navy stop say a paki ship carrying oil to china) will be and for what duration will the blockade will last in your opinion. ( will it end once ceasefire is called or till status quo ante is established in the mountain).

manjgu · Post by **manjgu** » 25 Sep 2009 08:43

contd...

f) when i check the vintage of chinese destroyers ( which is the main surface combatant) the result is even more startling

4 numbers Sovremenny Class - which is roughly equivalent to Indian Delhi class. The chinese ships are of much recent vintage than Indian delhi class. ( 1999, 2000, 2005,2006)

6 numbers 51c, 52C, 52B - - almost all launced post 2000 ( ie of faily recent vintage and featuring russian eqpt) ( 2004, 2005, 2003, 2003, 2004, 2004)

3 number 51B, 52 - - all lauched post 1996 ( 1998, 1994,1996)

approx 10 number luda class - - 4 of them underwent refit from 2002 onwards...6 moderenised in 90's

total = 13+ 4 +6 = 23

vs

3 no delhi class

INS Delhi D61 (15 November 1997)
INS Mysore D60 (02 June 1999)
INS Mumbai D62; ( 22 January 2001)

5 number Rajput class

INS Rajput D51 (30 September 1980)
INS Rana D52 (28 June 1982)
INS Ranjit D53 (24 November 1983)
INS Ranvir D54 (28 October 1986)
INS Ranvijay D55 (15 January 1988)

total = 8

rahul, as you see their main surface fleet is very modern and has the numbers as well.

you can do a simiar comparision on frigates and corvettes.

SK Ram · Post by **SK Ram** » 25 Sep 2009 09:59

VikB wrote:Rahul M - hats off to you for your patience.

Manjgu - do not argue for the sake of it. By your own admission you dont know much. Though Rahul pointed it out but you are still ranting - what do you mean by 'securing our fuel line from the gulf' ? Secure it from whom? If Chini cant reach then protect from whom?

If you are doing the analysis of IN assets available for war, do the same for Chini also. And dont forget to consider who is playing how far from the home base.

And please, dont post too many times. Get your thoughts together and post concisely. Plus do go through the earlier posts. Not one of your posts has added to the knowledge of the forum.

Thats just snobbish. Typical of the "I am holier than thou" attitude some people show off here.
Who are you to judge that he has not added anything to the discussion ?
On the contrary, I think he is posting basic questions that might make more sense to the many
"not-so-expert" browsers of this forum.

parshuram · Post by **parshuram** » 25 Sep 2009 10:12

Homestly i second you S K ram on the fact that prasanth queries make evry sense. Rest of the issues well not concerned at all .

I guess it is really doing a pigeon to cat that i close my eyes and cat 's gone if we say that just because we are better trained {again no facts to prove that } we can take on chinese any where and they do have a rigrous traing program followed by there expertise in hand to hand combat

Vintage or new chinese have back ups we might be a slightly beter equipped as we claim but if hostiities do break up we simply don't have enough numbers to carry out war for long . we can win battles but not a war esp if we plan to go to offensive.

The rate at which there surface and underwater ships are growing is gen ahead then what we do and problem is that gap is widening where it should be narrowing

Rahul M · Post by **Rahul M** » 25 Sep 2009 10:22

rahul, as you see their main surface fleet is very modern and has the numbers as well.

you can do a simiar comparision on frigates and corvettes.

hold yer horses !

check out the tonnage and armament fit of the luda (which is based on the kotlin, itself a 50's design which incidentally is the predecessor of kashin class of which the rajput is an advanced version.)

if luda is a destroyer then so are ships of the godavari, brahmaputra and talwar class.

(you've been foxed by IN. they have recently taken to calling ships one level lower than what those would be called in other navies. or you may say that other navies categorise their ships a level higher than they really are)
BTW, why are you assuming that PLAN will commit its entire high seas fleet (luda isn't a part of that btw. it's essentially an obsolete class being retained for numbers) to IOR ?

IN isn't the first or even the second or third priority for the PLAN. they would always have to bolster their homewaters and S China sea first.

moreover, the service records of a number of the modern ships you listed are themselves quite patchy. there are numerous reports saying so.
one of the most reliable pointers to a ship's status with PLAN is to look for follow up orders. if the design is considered good PLAN orders in large numbers. if not, they move on to the next design. for example, the luhu and luhai are thought to be abject failures.

FWIW, these comparisons mean nothing. if the PLAN has to punch through a blockade in malacca (or if IN has to do likewise) it will need to take the navies of ASEAN as their warships will need to pass through their waters, something no nation would allow in wartime.

I repeat once more, a comparison of relative strengths in the scenario I described is not a 1vs1 slugfest.

the number and vintage of chinese subs at least is much better than indian sub fleet ( 8 of their 10 kilos are the newer versions of kilos!!) . further, they have been raising tempo of their activities/ patrols steadily over the years..

considering the size of the fleet, the number of patrols are pathetic.

b) further, the india surface fleet is neither that numerous or has the capability to stay away from home for extended periods of time

why would it need to operate away from home ? how far is the AOR from A&N for a ship operating there ? that is irrelevant.

c) and i dont think it is correct to equate arabs and chinese. chinese to the best of knowledge are a intelligent race and not duffers like the arabs / pakis and have abosrbed/adapted to new tech very well. chinese as we know are technologically advanced than indians in many spheres.

kindly don't bring in racist prejudices into this. it's not acceptable on BR.
there is no such thing as an intelligent race. there have been enough chinese (and Indian) duffers in history as also many intelligent arabs.

organisational psyche has little to do with race. it is the particular constraints of being a communist military that forces certain unwanted traits into the PLA. H&D considerations, loss of face etc still rule many aspects of PLA organisation. the penchant for show-off is also well known. the combination is not a particular recipe for professionalism and degrades the other efforts to modernise.

I dont know the basis of your argument that chinese cant be as well trained as we are?

have I ever argued can't be ? the fact is they were not and even though they are coming up with leaps and bounds we are still ahead in training.

e) and you have till date not replied to what the probable ROE ( will indian navy stop say a paki ship carrying oil to china) will be and for what duration will the blockade will last in your opinion. ( will it end once ceasefire is called or till status quo ante is established in the mountain).

I'll not comment on that.

manjgu · Post by **manjgu** » 25 Sep 2009 11:46

I dont agree with your theory that IN calls its ships one level lower... the Delhi ( chinese Sovremenny Class ) and Kashin class are destroyers. rest of them dont fit in the destroyer class.

Yes, the Luda does seem to be of 80's vintage though refitted in 90's.. what i have learnt is that less capable ships are taken along as part of a battle group shephered by more capable ships. thats is why it did the maths as 13+ 4 + 6 ..you would agree that atleast 17 -20 are modern class destroyers. numbers are important....

BTW, why are you assuming that PLAN will commit its entire high seas fleet (luda isn't a part of that btw. it's essentially an obsolete class being retained for numbers) to IOR ?

By the same logic why are we assuming that India will commit its entire fleet to put the blockade?

IN isn't the first or even the second or third priority for the PLAN. they would always have to bolster their homewaters and S China sea first.

When IN is blocking their ships, IN will be first priority for them...

FWIW, these comparisons mean nothing. if the PLAN has to punch through a blockade in malacca (or if IN has to do likewise) it will need to take the navies of ASEAN as their warships will need to pass through their waters, something no nation would allow in wartime.

So how does IN enforce a blockade ( on which this debate is going on??)

I repeat once more, a comparison of relative strengths in the scenario I described is not a 1vs1 slugfest.

I am not doing a 1 vs 1 comparison either. I am arguing that it is not possible for IN to enforce a naval blockade given the relative numbers and quality of IN vs CN?

considering the size of the fleet, the number of patrols are pathetic.

Yes, it may be pathetic ( but only when we know about indian rates of patrol as prasanth point out) but it does not significantly reduce the danger

why would it need to operate away from home ? how far is the AOR from A&N for a ship operating there ? that is irrelevant.

I am not sure how many ships can A&N take care off??

kindly don't bring in racist prejudices into this. it's not acceptable on BR.
there is no such thing as an intelligent race. there have been enough chinese (and Indian) duffers in history as also many intelligent arabs.

COme on rahul. this is not racist. You equated Arabs and chinese. You said that arabs inspite of training, equipment etc did no good... i said that chinese are not like arabs.. how is it racist. When u say that inspite of training etc arabs are no good..that is racist in my opinion?

organisational psyche has little to do with race. it is the particular constraints of being a communist military that forces certain unwanted traits into the PLA. H&D considerations, loss of face etc still rule many aspects of PLA organisation. the penchant for show-off is also well known. the combination is not a particular recipe for professionalism and degrades the other efforts to modernise.

I dont know what to say about this?? this is very subjective and your assessment

Quote:
e) and you have till date not replied to what the probable ROE ( will indian navy stop say a paki ship carrying oil to china) will be and for what duration will the blockade will last in your opinion. ( will it end once ceasefire is called or till status quo ante is established in the mountain).

I'll not comment on that.

why not.... atleast lets hear your opinion. This is a very important point for IN doing a blockade ..without a idea about this , blockade is a pipe dream

JimmyJ · Post by **JimmyJ** » 25 Sep 2009 12:10

manjgu,

Could you please include the aircraft carrier/the IAF fighters (SU 30 MKI & to be inducted Mig 29K)that would be based in Andaman Region into this equation. That would better the comparison and can be a game changer too. You can also consider the Chineese fighters coming to the fight while taking into consideration the distance they will have to cover.

JMT

Rahul M · Post by **Rahul M** » 25 Sep 2009 12:32

manjgu, I'm a bit tired giving replies on what should be starting info for anyone discussing PLA.
unfortunately even your last post bears examples of that. (*)

could you please read up so that we are on the same page before continuing ? else it would be near impossible for me to respond to what is essentially calcified prejudices based upon extremely sketchy info.

let me reiterate, it's not *my* opinion. the information is widely available.
I suggest you start with this : http://www.china-defense.com/naval/plan ... 050-1.html

also please google up dennis blasko, jamestown foundation etc and various USN articles and see what they have to say on this topic.

trust me, unless you are better informed, no amount of posting from me would convince you anything. you seem to have already decided on what is possible even before you are ware of the relative strengths and weaknesses (by your own admission) !

don't you think that ordering is wrong ?

(*)

I dont agree with your theory that IN calls its ships one level lower... the Delhi ( chinese Sovremenny Class ) and Kashin class are destroyers. rest of them dont fit in the destroyer class.

this is just one example of being ill-informed on your part.
class is decided by tonnage and function. pray tell me how a 3670 tonne luda is a 'destroyer' but 3850 tonne godavari, 3850 tonne brahmaputra, 4000 tonne talwars are not according to you ?

heck, the P17 shivalik is 5600 tonnes and classified as a frigate. it is larger than the kashins (4974 tonnes) and the PLAN 051 luda (3670 t), 052 luhu (4800 t) !
but of course, you do not agree.

let's talk of frigates, PLAN calls ships in the 1500 t to 2500 t as frigates, in IN, those are corvettes (4 kora, 4 khukri and the coming P28 class).
------------------
(not directed towards you personally)
it's one thing to be realistic and quite another to dream up various nightmare fantasies and argue them forcefully by creating various strawman arguments.
wish people would stop considering everything DDM says as gospel.

manjgu · Post by **manjgu** » 25 Sep 2009 12:51

rahul, on the contrary i am willing to listen / be educated ... i am not here in a slugfest with you

) or anybody else. I will certainly go back and do more study and return

this is BR is all about...

the debate from my POV was wether India can blockade supply to china as a riposte for chinese aggression in the NE/Ladakh. What is your considered view?

JimmyJ · Post by **JimmyJ** » 25 Sep 2009 15:36

manjgu wrote:rahul, on the contrary i am willing to listen / be educated ... i am not here in a slugfest with you ) or anybody else. I will certainly go back and do more study and return this is BR is all about...
the debate from my POV was wether India can blockade supply to china as a riposte for chinese aggression in the NE/Ladakh. What is your considered view?

Though am no where near anyone elses knowledge I would post some points which I have always read on BR and various articles. Please expand them to see how it would help in your context and why would they do it if Chinese forces are capable of thwarting any blocade from a strategic perspective[not just economic].

1. China is trying to increase it influence in the Central Asian regions an energy rich region
2. China may join the Iran Pakistan oil pipeline
3. China Pakistan new Naval diplomacy aiming at stregthening the PN
4. Gwadar port acting as what Chittagong/Sittwe port does for India to its North East, for China via the Karakoram pass

Why would China do all the above if it was sure of thwarting any attempt by IN to effect a blockade from a defence perpective?

There are a wealth of article available in the internet on all these. Unfortunately I never had the habit of saving the links That was really stupid.

JMT

chanakyaa · Post by **chanakyaa** » 25 Sep 2009 20:39

Chinese influence in Burma

Came across a Financial Time article on growing Chinese influence in Burma (Myanmar). Chinese military is growing strong ties with Burmese junta. Chinese military is trying to cut some deal with Burmese junta that will allow Chinese companies to get to Andaman sea. That exposes the IN's eastern border to the bandar Chinese. Is IN (and military) doing anything before Goras and Chinese make Burma their playground?

ParGha · Post by **ParGha** » 25 Sep 2009 21:34

manjgu wrote:rahul, on the contrary i am willing to listen / be educated ... i am not here in a slugfest with you ) or anybody else. I will certainly go back and do more study and return this is BR is all about... the debate from my POV was wether India can blockade supply to china as a riposte for chinese aggression in the NE/Ladakh. What is your considered view?

First you have to recognize what China can do in NE/Askai Chin - it can harass Indian forces. Conversely India can harass Chinese shipping and its trade partners in the Indian Ocean. Neither approach represents a silver bullet aimed at the heart of each other. A "blockade", as commonly understood, is as improbable as the Chinese marching down to Srinagar - the military forces and international politics are simply too strong to let either one happen.

JimmyJ wrote:1. China is trying to increase it influence in the Central Asian regions an energy rich region
2. China may join the Iran Pakistan oil pipeline
3. China Pakistan new Naval diplomacy aiming at stregthening the PN
4. Gwadar port acting as what Chittagong/Sittwe port does for India to its North East, for China via the Karakoram pass
Why would China do all the above if it was sure of thwarting any attempt by IN to effect a blockade from a defence perpective?

1. The Chinese industrialization has legitimate demand for #1 and #2.
2. It is an offensive Chinese strategy which drives the String of Pearls, and which manifests itself in #3 and #4.

Gentlemen, Are you sure you are not looking for some other naval term besides "blockade"?

Gerard · Post by **Gerard** » 26 Sep 2009 02:32

chanakyaa wrote:Chinese influence in Burma

Please refrain from using offensive words such as "Chinki". It is not permitted on the forum.

chanakyaa · Post by **chanakyaa** » 27 Sep 2009 03:51

Gerard wrote:
chanakyaa wrote:Chinese influence in Burma
Please refrain from using offensive words such as "Chinki". It is not permitted on the forum.

Suggestion Accepted. And, with respect, I truly hope when it comes to defending the country on the battleground our political and military establishment will not hesitate to shows such "offensive" postures (not just words, but strong and decisive action) and not be politically correct.

JAI HIND

Patrick Cusack · Post by **Patrick Cusack** » 27 Sep 2009 04:38

One should assume that any Chinese incursion will also include fronts on Assam side by Bangla and Pakistan front. India will be forced into defensive posture on Pak & Bangla fronts because of USA and its allies. If this war happens it will be one that cannot be won - not because of inferiority but because of these other issues. Therefore, India has to very quickly arm itself beyond its defensive needs into a behemoth that cannot be equaled at all EVER again.

Mahesh_R · Post by **Mahesh_R** » 27 Sep 2009 05:58

Patrick Cusack wrote:One should assume that any Chinese incursion will also include fronts on Assam side by Bangla and Pakistan front. India will be forced into defensive posture on Pak & Bangla fronts because of USA and its allies. If this war happens it will be one that cannot be won - not because of inferiority but because of these other issues. Therefore, India has to very quickly arm itself beyond its defensive needs into a behemoth that cannot be equaled at all EVER again.

I donot agree with Patrick....India will NOT give in to the pressure from any country if it has been attacked...it can be either Pak or Bangla or China.....if any political party gives in to the pressure tactics of USA or its allies then it can forget Indian politics forever or obvious reasons..and I think any person with little common sense will forget abt US or any other country if its own borders are at risk.....

Patrick Cusack · Post by **Patrick Cusack** » 27 Sep 2009 06:44

Thanks for the reassurance - Arming India is the ONLY solution.

manjgu · Post by **manjgu** » 27 Sep 2009 07:24

First you have to recognize what China can do in NE/Askai Chin - it can harass Indian forces. Conversely India can harass Chinese shipping and its trade partners in the Indian Ocean. Neither approach represents a silver bullet aimed at the heart of each other. A "blockade", as commonly understood, is as improbable as the Chinese marching down to Srinagar - the military forces and international politics are simply too strong to let either one happen

- i think china is already harrasing indian forces.... we are talking beyond that . the question was in response to China occupying territory in NE/Askai chin does india have the capability to interdict/blockade shipping to china?

occupying territory in NE/Aksai is between india/china but when you interdict/blockade intl shipping routes it does not remain a bilateral issue.. it is much more complicated and also requires much more capability. then there uncomfotable questions about ROE etc..

Rahul M · Post by **Rahul M** » 27 Sep 2009 08:42

though the reporting is from US context, this is important reading regarding what IMHO is one of PLA's most potent threats, the S2S missiles against air-bases in NE and elsewhere.
http://www.airforce-magazine.com/Magazi ... ttack.aspx

a rand study on this subject is available. highly recommended read.
http://www.rand.org/pubs/monograph_reports/MR1028/

pargha, if push comes to shove, diplomatic pressure will simply be ignored. countries with far lesser influence have ignored international pressure in what is an even more important theatre to the west, iraq and iran in persian gulf. we ourselves moved against US opinion in '71.
if as a nation we don't think of every alternative or tie our own hands fearing international opinion when our landmass is being taken over, we should simply surrender control of the country to the US or even PRC.

blockading and/or intercepting SLOCs would entail three factors
# detection
# identification
# destruction

I don't think I have to spell out on BR how navies detect merchant vessels !

they use a combination of MPAs and surface ships.
someone please have a look at the shipping lanes through IOR (they pass just south of SL FYI)

the comparatively short-legged ships can well intercept the SLOCs near SL with the help of MPAs. the listening posts being talked about in maldives tells something.
malacca straits area can be scanned by a combination of MPAs and ka-31 AEW helos.
they don't even have to deploy far from their bases to do so due to the funnel shape of the straits. the mouth leads right in front of the A&N islands.

regarding ROE do you think that is decided in advance ? an inflexible plan is a sure recipe for disaster. if such a situation arises it will be decided in conjunction with civilian authority.
they may simply intercept ships flying under the PRC flag or may escalate anything bound for china. it is a little hasty trying to figure out details to such a level when even the barest ground situations are unknown to us !

sourab_c · Post by **sourab_c** » 27 Sep 2009 08:58

I do not think that our new air bases would be too much trouble for the PLA.

When the PLA decides to invade AP, it will do it quietly and it will sure as hell be a surprise attack. Our respected chiefs talk about being proactive, but tell me, how do they plan to stop a surprise multiple missile assault on our bases.Those Sukhois placed in the NE wont be very useful when our bases are taken out in the first strike itself.

Investing in a ABM style mutiple tier air defence cover is not very economically viable for a country like India. Our focus should be on putting more "offensive" firepower in place.

Even multiple short range missiles spread out in a tactical manner all over AP would make sure that we can deal a quick blow in case of a surprise attack.

Srivastav · Post by **Srivastav** » 27 Sep 2009 10:11

^^ do you really think that china can hide the massive movement of personnel and vehicles when it comes to invading AP. To me it appears that people are thinking of china as some supernatural being or something whos invading hordes are going to immerge from the belly of the earth and completely surprise us.
Yes, we couldve paid more attention to our northern borders and not waited for so long, but why do you think we have been recently investing in AWACS, israeli satellite, forwards bases/airstrips, SPYDER systems, Low level radars etc.

The fear mongering is just getting absurd. If we are already so lost as some people think we are, then we should just call our forces back from the border because they wont be able to survive the chinese onslought anyways.

ParGha · Post by **ParGha** » 27 Sep 2009 17:38

Srivastav wrote:The fear mongering is just getting absurd. If we are already so lost as some people think we are, then we should just call our forces back from the border because they wont be able to survive the chinese onslought anyways.

I second that, and I will add that it is serving no purpose and it is becoming counterproductive and/or hysterical. It is one thing to say India needs to buy X, Y and Z systems, because of challenges posed by Chinese possession of A, B and C; or India needs to alter this strategy because the Chinese have evolved that one etc. -- that, IMHO, is China Military Watch. But this discussion has long veered a merry-go-round of self-pity, self-flagellation and otherwise inane commentary. Mods, please use your Dark Arts to send this line of thought to Strategic Issues Forum and keep it there; otherwise, I fear it will spread here as well. Thanks!

manjgu · Post by **manjgu** » 27 Sep 2009 18:02

"dont depend on the enemy not coming..depend rather on being ready for him " snu - tzu

I dont think there is any fear mongering.. folks are just discussing possibilities and options. So Rahul, If I understood you correctly it is within the capability of IN to enforce a blockade for an extended period of time ( say 1 -2 months). Is their a possibility of ships flying chinese flag taking a long detour? what are the alternate routes?

What % of china bound traffic is on chinese ships?

Isnt finalizing the ROE a matter of war preparation? i would assume that these things are part of any war plan?

Rahul.. do you think this interdiction/blockade will continue even post ceasefire?

AmitR · Post by **AmitR** » 27 Sep 2009 18:15

ParGha wrote:
Srivastav wrote:The fear mongering is just getting absurd.

There is method to this madness IMHO.
We know how our political class and babudom think and proceed in the matters pertaining to national defence. We know that it takes decades to make one MRCA/Artillery/Tank/Ship acquisition or development and even after that the deals get mired in corruption charges. What option do our forces have except for using the media to force the hands of government-babudom to act. We need a 26/11 like jhapad to wake up our establishment for a few months and then after that it's back to business as usual.

manjgu · Post by **manjgu** » 27 Sep 2009 18:31

some imp stats on china and Oil supplies

Imports 46% of its oil needs vs 68% for india (2009 figures)

Chinese strategic reseves approx 100 Mil B ..to be upped to 280 Mil B by 2011 ( 2009 fig)
Daily import of 3.6 Mil B ( 2009 figures)

AmitR · Post by **AmitR** » 27 Sep 2009 18:39

Many Chinese still see India as their main enemy: Report

Even, veterans who know the PLA from the inside say that despite all its shiny new kit, such grandiose ideas mask the reality of a force "that has no recent battle experience and is riddled with corruption".

They describe a system of bribes ranging from 10,000 yuan (909 pounds) to get a good post for a private soldier to 30,000 yuan for a place at military college, the report said.

"If corruption in the army continues, ideology will decay and open the way for religion, while the promotion system risks causing a mutiny," the newspaper quoted General Zhang Shutian, a political commissar, as having said recently.