India-China News and Discussion

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 30 Oct 2009 20:17

an article from June 2008:

The Indian mission in Beijing is busy shooting itself in the foot at a time when India-China relations are on a downswing...

Author / Submitted by: AMARJEET MALIK [timesofindia.indiatimes.com]

The Indian mission in Beijing is busy shooting itself in the foot at a time when India-China relations are on a downswing.

Fresh controversy enveloped the mission with RAW station chief Uma Mishra being recalled this week, apparently for a poorly handled investigation into a "honeytrap" case.

Mishra is expected to return to India soon and this will be the second time a RAW official has returned from Beijing under a cloud.

Earlier, another RAW staffer, Manmohan Sharma, was recalled for his alleged affair with a Chinese interpreter. In connection with the Sharma case, an assistant to deputy chief of mission Saurabh Kumar has already been sent back.

The assistant, Gangadharan, was called back to Delhi on "special duty" and then given a recall letter and now it is believed that Kumar himself may be posted out as well after barely a year as deputy chief of mission. Kumar's replacement is believed to be another MEA official from Vietnam.

Just what's happening in Beijing?

Amid the sheer inefficiency, lack of checks and poor professionalism, there's a strong possibility of an ego spat between MEA and RAW. The trouble apparently began after the Manmohan Sharma incident.

While RAW, responsible for external intelligence, cried foul and said its official was above board and the problem had really to do with a quarrel between Sharma's maid and interpreter, MEA differed and claimed that a probe had found evidence that Sharma had been "penetrated" by the Chinese. Sharma's apartment was apparently bugged.

The Gangadharan recall thereafter is being seen as a tit-for-tat affair between MEA and RAW. On being called back to Delhi, he was not even allowed to go back to Beijing to bring back his family, said sources.

Mishra's recall is rather more serious as she's a counseller level officer.

It is said that her return is a result of not conducting the investigation of the Manmohan Sharma incident properly with sources saying that MEA was unhappy at her alleged refusal to pass on details of the Sharma affair to the ministry.

The turn of events reflects poorly on both organisations. Certainly, when relations with China need closer attention, India should be better served by both agencies.

arun · Post by **arun** » 30 Oct 2009 20:17

X Posted.

Yoda of Wehrkunde speaks:

Manish Tiwari, Hindustan Times
New Delhi , October 30, 2009

China, US policies on Pak adversely impacting India: Brajesh Mishra

Former India ’s national security adviser Brajesh Mishra on Friday in New Delhi said the United States and China policies towards Pakistan were both having adverse impact on India.

“While China is supporting Pakistan military for reasons well known, India ’s friend, the US has also been pursuing policies for the past eight years that have the same adverse impact on India as China ’s policies on Pakistan ,” he said during the HT Summit in New Delhi.

Mishra raises serious concerns over change in China ’s attitude in the past two years towards the issue of Kashmir and its claims to disintegrate India.

Participating in the discussions on “lessons from Mumbai 26/11: security India against terror” organised by the Hindustan Times , the former national security adviser said India was up against unprecedented challenge being posed both on internal and external fronts and India would have to seriously focus on increasing its military strength to face the external aggressions.

“ India has fought many wars, but two fronts were never simultaneously alive in the past. But in the next five years, I will not rule out that possibility (with both China and Pakistan opening fronts against India ),” he warned. ……………….

Hindustan Times

pgbhat · Post by **pgbhat** » 31 Oct 2009 09:26

From Chellaney's tweet ....not sure if this was posted.

# Unremitting pressure: The Chinese Embassy chose to send a protest note to MEA at the very time the Wen Jiabao-Manmohan meeting was going on.11:57 PM Oct 25th from web

csharma · Post by **csharma** » 31 Oct 2009 10:26

India will have to earn its place as a world power by dealing with China successfully. China is the power India is trying to balance and one has to expect it to ruthlessly explore all avenues to prevent India's rise. They have been doing precisely that at every opportunity like the nuclear deal, Pakistan support etc. That's why it has to stop whining about every little thing China is doing. They should respond by counter measures.

India has to beef up its military quickly like everyone from armed forces chief to Brajesh Mishra to Vikram Sood are suggesting.

santoshriyer · Post by **santoshriyer** » 31 Oct 2009 10:42

shyamd wrote:
shyamd wrote:

NTRO has set up listening stations in Arunachal. Yindu special forces have been doing some reconnaissance and other missions into China. The 30,000 men of mountain division will join up and work with these special forces. Chinese have also been sending their special forces into indian territory. Both sides are little worried that the 2 special forces troops may meet and cause a border clash of some sort. The chances are very high at the moment.

Shyam ji
where did u get this piee of information from. Its too sensitive. I havent read it in the papers?

Avinash R · Post by **Avinash R** » 31 Oct 2009 12:40

^From Here

svinayak · Post by **svinayak** » 31 Oct 2009 14:35

In the official map of China, it has marked most of Kashmir as its own. for more than a year

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 31 Oct 2009 17:10

I wonder why they left arunachal to us ?

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 31 Oct 2009 17:41

China's Kashmir mischief has more substance as compared to its voices on Arunachal. The inevitabilty of Pak split is dawning on them. US is only posponing the inevitable. For Pasthuns/Talibs, the times of being ruled by Punjabis and Mohajirs (ISI) is over in any type of scenario. It may be in the interest of Punjabis to have their homeland and accept a just Phakutunistan. That will trigger more mulla lands in Af-Pak region.

In such a situation POK becomes the most important land and at this time US/China has eyes set on that land from both strategic/militiary perspective and also deny-India-access to central asia.

I pray to God that please provide a good leader(or give wisdom to the current ones) for India during these times.

Lalmohan · Post by **Lalmohan** » 31 Oct 2009 19:32

traditionally, whenever the border lands of Hind have been unguarded, the uzbeks and tajiks have swept down from transoxania. if we think of pakjab as the buffer state on the frontier, and its shield is about to shatter... what conditions will trigger an afghan and uzbek foray into the transindus?

a_kumar · Post by **a_kumar** » 31 Oct 2009 19:43

Acharya wrote:In the official map of China, it has marked most of Kashmir as its own. for more than a year

And that small offshoot of land on Eastern edge of Afganishtan!!

shravan · Post by **shravan** » 31 Oct 2009 19:54

Tharoor concerned about misuse of Indian business visas

With the number of business visas issued by India to Chinese surging to over 58,000 last year, Minister of State for External Affairs Shashi Tharoor Saturday expressed concern over some visa holders misusing the visas to work in India.

'The visa issued to the Chinese people last year has gone up substantially. Business visas are intended for business visitors like setting up of business office, overseeing an ongoing project, but it is not intended to substitute an employment visa, which may be given to technically qualified persons to assist projects of Chinese companies,' Tharoor said at a seminar organised by the Merchants' Chamber of Commerce here.

Tharoor said it was 'a concern for three ministries - External Affairs, Home ministry and Labour Ministry'.

'If unskilled workers are coming with these visas, they are taking the jobs of Indian unskilled workers,' he said.

'Semi-skilled and unskilled workers, if needed, should come to the country through proper visa channel. This is not a proper way,' Tharoor said, adding though work visas take a little longer than business visas, that is the standard process of obtaining visas.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 31 Oct 2009 20:03

a_kumar wrote:
Acharya wrote:In the official map of China, it has marked most of Kashmir as its own. for more than a year
And that small offshoot of land on Eastern edge of Afganishtan!!

That closes all kinds of manipulation towards central asia by the new countries.

Hari Seldon · Post by **Hari Seldon** » 31 Oct 2009 20:59

MaoA biraders....How's mother china doing?

Which reminds me, isn't china as some kinda parental figure the focal point of the fearsome chini nationalism?

What, its not?!

So Cheen begotten not nor was it ever begotten, eh? Chinis aren't the children then of a mother /father china? That's sad, because aparent would love his/her children. An accidentalguardian would not.

Says a lot about cheen, its worldview and stuff, IMO.

Karan Dixit · Post by **Karan Dixit** » 31 Oct 2009 21:44

The Dalai Lama did not shy away from criticizing China at his news conference Saturday, saying it lacks freedom and transparency, and is not trusted by its neighbors.

He encouraged people to visit Tibet and decide whether Tibetans under Chinese government rule are happy and thriving.

"Go see for yourself," he said. "If we are wrong, we will quit all of our activities."

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20091031/ap_ ... lai_lama_2

Juggi G · Post by **Juggi G** » 31 Oct 2009 22:07

Double Hump Camels to be Deployed along China Border

Hari Seldon · Post by **Hari Seldon** » 31 Oct 2009 22:09

Juggi G wrote:Double Hump Camels to be Deployed along China Border

Wow, nice. Lez hope they doubly hump the PLA.

anishns · Post by **anishns** » 01 Nov 2009 06:54

India gives China a mouthful
Indrani Bagchi, TNN 1 November 2009, 01:49am IST

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/indi ... 185020.cms

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 01 Nov 2009 07:17

Muppalla,

Me too.

I think China is preparing to take over PoK in the event PakiLand starts to split. Which is more than likely to happen.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 01 Nov 2009 07:21

Juggi G wrote:Double Hump Camels to be Deployed along China Border

Seem to have complete, unrestricted ToT.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 01 Nov 2009 07:40

NRao wrote:Muppalla,

Me too.

I think China is preparing to take over PoK in the event PakiLand starts to split. Which is more than likely to happen.

This needs a larger analysis from gurus here on BRF. In all prospects it is inevitable that pastuns will take a leadership role and not going to be under pakjabs+Mohajirs. Taking that as an assumption:

1) Will a desperate Pakistan (Pakjab) just donate POK to China just like it ceeded Shaksgam Valley.
2) During/After the TSP split, will China engage India heavily on the NE and grab POK?

Analysis of this theatre will be interesting.

santoshriyer · Post by **santoshriyer** » 01 Nov 2009 12:18

New Delhi: In far away Japan, the Dalai Lama, who has by and large not made any political statements on Arunachal in the last few weeks,batted for India, claiming that the 'disputed' state is a part of the union. The claim on India's behalf has not amused the government, though there has been no official response to his statement.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ahead of his proposed visit to Arunachal Pradesh (AP), Tibet's exiled spiritual leader hit out at China for opposing his trip to the state, saying it was "politicising [the issue] too much," as he was going there solely for teaching. Asked whether his successor (next incarnation) may be found in Tawang, he emphasised that he will play no role in such efforts. "If I was communist then I would have to be concerned about my successor but I'm not communist," he said.

Talking to reporters in Japan, he was asked about his visit to the state and China's repeated protests to India over it. The Dalai Lama went back to the border war of 1962, pointing out that many parts of the state were overrun by the Peoples Liberation Army (PLA). But after the ceasefire, the PLA withdrew from these areas. "... they announced a unilateral ceasefire and withdrew, accepting the current international boundary," the spiritual leader said.

He also spoke of his deep emotional attachment to AP, as it was the place where he entered India after his escape from Tibet in 1959. What he did not say was that the sixth Dalai Lama was from the Tawang region and the Chinese are afraid that he may name his successor from there.

Privately Indian officials are put off with the Dalai Lama's claims, as Prime Minister Manmohan Singh during his meeting with Wen Jiabao in Thailand had devoted much time and energy in explaining India's position on the Tibetan leader. The PM said he was a religious leader and the Tibetans were not allowed to take part in any political activity in India. India-China ties had reached a low following the announcement of the Dalai Lama's visit, slated for November 8-14.The Prime Minister had done some damage control and tried to repair ties during his meeting with his Chinese counterpart.

Manmohan Singh had assured Wen that the Dalai Lama would be in Tawang for religious discourses and would not fall out of line and make any controversial remarks. "We had requested His Holiness not to make any political statements. Our expectations are that he would oblige," a senior official, who did not wish to be identified said. Asked if by claiming Arunachal for India, the Dalai Lama had overstepped the line, the official refused to comment.

Whatever the spiritual leader says and does in Arunachal will be watched closely by the Chinese. The Tibetan leader will perhaps be told once more not to make any controversial remarks. It is unlikely that the Dalai Lama will go against the Indian government. The gag order for him is applicable only in India; he can choose to say whatever he likes abroad. Many analysts believe New Delhi is over sensitive to China's likes and dislikes and welcome the Dalai Lama's plain talking in Japan.

http://www.dnaindia.com/india/report_i- ... ma_1305624

Philip saab, looks like the lines have been drawn. We have to wait for Nov 8, 2009 when HH Dalai Lama will be visiting tawang

santoshriyer · Post by **santoshriyer** » 01 Nov 2009 13:43

Sunday 01st November, 04:33 AM JST

TOKYO —
Visiting exiled Tibetan spiritual leader the Dalai Lama said Saturday his planned visit to Buddhist monasteries in a disputed area near the China-India border is not politically motivated and should not upset the Chinese government. The Dalai Lama is scheduled to visit Tawang monasteries in Arunachal Pradesh next month and said he will go there to teach his beliefs at the invitation of local leaders.

‘‘If it creates problems, that is sad,’’ he said at a press conference held at the Foreign Correspondents’ Club of Japan. The Dalai Lama, who lives in exile in India, recently visited Taiwan, which Beijing considers part of its territory, and met with political leaders on the island despite strong criticism from China.

During the press conference, he also raised his concerns over the situations of Tibetans and other ethnic minorities in China, urging media and members of the international community to visit China and assess their situations without the presence of the government’s security personnel.

Japanese News channel
http://www.japantoday.com/category/poli ... tical-move

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 01 Nov 2009 14:28

Yes,the assimilation of POK into China as COK is a very worrying thought and we should plan for a robust military and diplomatic strategy to defeat China' s
mischief.
A first act should be to revise Indian official maps showing Tibet as being part of India/Indian protectorate and Taiwan as an independent country.
Act two should be to immediately send official "trade" delegations along with MPs to Taipei and military delegations to all the countries afeared by China across Asia like Vietnam,the Phillipines,etc.,to explore closer military cooperation.
Act three ,the immediate build up of Indian militayr forces,strategic and conventional in the immediate short term,with medium and long term planning initiated on a war footing.
Another act should be the establishment of an ethnic Tibetan military force and raising new divisions from natives in our N-east states, that could be put into action in the event of China attacking us.

santoshriyer · Post by **santoshriyer** » 01 Nov 2009 14:30

Tensions have flared between both China and India militaries along their disputed 2,175 mile-long border, with both sides alleging more frequent troop incursions in recent weeks. China is upset when the Indian prime minister recently visit the disputed region. China considers an Indian-occupied piece of it’s own Tibetan Autonomous Region, has added flames to the fire.

China of course already deeply resents the fact that the top Tibetan leader, and several hundred thousand exiled Tibetans, are allowed to reside in India.

India’s Maoist rebels are now present in 20 states and have evolved into a potent and lethal insurgency. In the last four years, the Maoists have killed more than 900 Indian security officers. Indian leaders are now preparing to deploy nearly 70,000 paramilitary officers to hunt down the guerrillas.The Maoists, however, do not want to secede or be absorbed. Their goal is to topple the system.

India’s rapid economic growth has made it an emerging global power but also deepened stark inequalities in society. Maoists accuse the government of trying to push tribal groups off their land to gain access to raw materials and have sabotaged roads, bridges and even an energy pipeline.

India is preparing the military for possible war with China and Pakistan. India and Russia have agreed two military pacts, including a 10-year deal on weapons, aircraft, and maintenance contracts potentially worth at least $5 billion, Indian defense officials said. India plans to spend $30 billion over the next five years to buy modern weapons systems and attack planes.

The agreement will certainly help as Russia needs a market and India needs a strategic reassurance to sort out relations that were going sour. India also wants to use the renewed focus on Russia as a counterweight to China, while a strong presence in South Asia could help Moscow keep an eye on China. India fears China is trying to encircle it as they jostle for resources and global influence.
China is a greater anxiety for Russia in the long run and politically it is desirable for India to strengthen relations with Russia

China has boosted military spending by more than 10 percent annually for almost two decades, and the official figure of $71 billion this year is thought by many analysts to represent only a portion of total defense spending. China announced plans to boost military spending by 14.9 percent this year, maintaining a longtime trend of annual double-digit percentage increases that have stirred concern in Washington and among Beijing's neighbors.

http://www.examiner.com/x-20010-NY-Econ ... d-Pakistan

I think we would be facing a difficult situation if we have to face a war on 2 fronts.

http://www.dnaindia.com/india/report_we ... my_1305601

Srinagar: Sending a clear message to India's neighbors, the Army on Saturday said it was well prepared to deal with any moves from Pakistan or China. "The Army is well prepared to meet any eventuality from Pakistan and China. We maintain an adequate posture in our borders. My troops understand the need to maintain peace along the Line of Control (with Pakistan) and the Line of Actual Control (with China)," said Lieutenant General BS Jaswal, general officer commanding in chief (GOC-in-C) of the Northern Command

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The Northern Army commander admitted that there remained some areas of differences in the perception of the Line of Actual Control (LAC), between India and China, in the Ladakh region. "These are being addressed on the diplomatic front. However, building our defence capability and preparing for any contingency is an ongoing process. From the defence point of view we are aware of the ground realities and are prepared to deal with any eventuality," he said.

Lt Gen Jaswal said the incidents reported in the media are merely transgressions and not incursions (from the Chinese side). "Transgressions are reported by both sides and resolved through regular Border meetings at the local level. On the LAC, peace and tranquility prevails. Both sides patrol upto their perceived lines, as per the agreed Border Management posture," he said.

The Army commander also sent a tough message to Pakistan for violating the ceasefire and infiltration. "The LoC is a clearly-defined line and accepted by both India and Pakistan. Infiltration across the LoC is something we reckon with failing regularity throughout the year. However, the situation is normal with minor aberrations along the LoC which are addressed through the medium of flag meetings. Ceasefire violations will not be tolerated and effectively responded to," he said.

There have been 37 infiltration attempts made from January till date, in which 74 terrorists were killed. "Most infiltration bids have been foiled and 74 terrorists were killed, albeit some infiltration has taken place. Adequate measures are in place for an effective domination of the LoC, including synergy of employment of all surveillance means. A three-tier deployment exists, which is dynamic and based on the movement pattern and concentration of terrorists," he said. The Northern Army commander said militancy in the state has shown a downward trend.

Is the government preparing the public for some thing??

Juggi G · Post by **Juggi G** » 01 Nov 2009 20:31

China's Newest Export : Sex Crimes

Religious police in the Gulf Arab state of Yemen recently shut down a string of Chinese restaurants and massage parlours that were Fronting for Illegal Brothels and Offering a Range of 'Arabian Night' Services.

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 01 Nov 2009 21:43

Attended a talk by an eminent Chinese expert on India-China relations. While he presented an excellent overview of the Chinese, their thought processes etc., most of the crowd of very well educated Indians displayed a complete ignorance about India's geo-strategic or geo-political environment. In the interaction that followed the talk, people were mostly suggesting that India should somehow settle the border dispute as India's progress was tied to that. One well known administrator, now retired, suggested that Man Mohan Singh should prepare Indian opinion to hand over Tawang to China. He suggested that MMS should immediately attempt this through editors such as Vinod Mehta and Sheila Bhat. Another speaker said that he has just returned from China. He was extremely impressed by the progress made by that country. He said that all the downturn in the relationship between the two countries is just media hype and caused by politicians. Very simple, indeed. Quite disappointing except for the talk.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 01 Nov 2009 21:50

same here brother. the naivete and lack of worldly education of our 'techical elites' here in BLR makes me want to throw up or go into self-exile. just yesterday ran into a bunch of them in a party - topics of conversation - cricket and the latest gizmos and cars. they dont even know anyplace in BD other than dhaka , forget knowing about china or its political and cultural history.

all I hear people talk about here is cricket, stocks, property, payhikes, bollywood and work related topics...that covers 99.99% of it. and one thing that shines through is the arrogance and unwillingness to listen patiently and learn any new area.

with our middle class who have ample time, means and money to think deeper in this sorry shape, one can hardly blame the vast poorer sections who have no time from earning roti, kapda , makaan.

in despair, thats why I hang out in BR.

Hari Seldon · Post by **Hari Seldon** » 01 Nov 2009 21:53

Er, SSridhar saar, typo here onlee...

most of the crowd of very well educated Indians displayed a complete lack of ignorance about India's geo-strategic or geo-political environment.

How I wish our elite displayed a complete lack of ignorance onlee...

harbans · Post by **harbans** » 01 Nov 2009 22:25

in despair, thats why I hang out in BR.

Cheer up Sirs, it's not that bad really. I converted one friend to think on strategic matters to the extent he is now quite interested in this stuff. Meets me almost on a daily basis and discusses a whole lot of strategic stuff. Before he used to say i don't care to know, why do i care about this. But now he is intrigued and admits this is stuff thats ignored on a vast scale in India.

Also one barometer is Rediff comments. I'm quite heartened at the pulse there.

sanjaykumar · Post by **sanjaykumar** » 01 Nov 2009 22:33

Unfortunately Indians are among the most uncouth of the middle classes anywhere. Most would not know what to do with a book.

General knowledge is pitiful, independent opinion nonexistant. In addition to stocks their idea
Of culture is memorizing bollywood lyrics to regurgitate with the intake of whiskey. I compare this to some of the conversations I have with white professionals and most Indians appear retarded.

This may puncture some ballons but that may be necessary.

Masaru · Post by **Masaru** » 02 Nov 2009 03:06

India and its troublesome neighbours

More verbal diarrhea from M. K. Bhadrakumar. Wonder how he discharged his duty of protecting indian interests when he was in IFS! He could as well be the bureaucrat from the propaganda ministry in PRC.

Alas, our China-watching has become pedestrian and cliché-ridden. We will pay a price for this since China is a very serious power and it is rapidly transforming. Even assuming that that adversarial instincts in inter-state relations could remain immutable, there is a strong case to be made in favour of applying reason while making judgment. What else could we have expected Beijing to do other than what it did when we posed a development project in Arunachal Pradesh to the Asian Development Bank for funding?

The true slavish nature comes out; after the turko-mongol-arab, the british the new masters are on the horizon. Need to do the necessary legwork for the new masters so that my comfortable bureaucratic status-quo is maintained. Wonder if the 1200 years of slavery has transformed the DNA of these people too?

To frame the question differentially, why is every Indian ambassador expected to take up with maniacal zeal all instances of “cartographic aggression” — display of Indian boundaries other than ditto what India claims? The point is, under international law, precedents could constitute a needless vector. Which is why sometimes a country, rightly or wrongly, may feel compelled to act precisely against precedent-setting joyful mountaineering expeditions and proceed to create a fait accompli — as India probably did in Siachen in 1984. The ADB is a major international institution and Beijing acted in its best interests. There is enough professionalism in South Block to have anticipated the high probability bordering on the certainty that Beijing would act precisely in the fashion it did.

If precedents are indeed that critical in international law how does he justify not questioning the cartographic aggression? What makes him think that it won't serve as a precedent 20 years later ! He should enroll himself in logic 101 before propounding propaganda nonsense.

Again, reams and reams of paper have been wasted on the Chinese “presence” in Gwadar. But what is coolly overlooked is that China of its own volition turned down the Pakistani offer to run the Gwadar port after its development with considerable Chinese aid.

Look how graciously PRC and TSP conduct their foreign relations compared to the uncouth SDREs.

Whereas, what is often enough seen is the propensity to take shelter under a dubious thesis that was first propounded by a minor Pentagon analyst in her late 20s — who since moved on, unsurprisingly, to the Rand Corporation — known as the “string of pearls.”

So women in late 20s are incapable of seeing strategic realities (like what is assumed in the Indian political-bureaucracy nexus) or the condescension is because she belonged to Pentagon and RAND? Why doesn't he argue against the thesis rather than launching ad-hominem attacks?

China-Pakistan relationship has literally become a no-go area for rational analysis in our country. Myths are galore, pride mixes with prejudice and self-righteousness. Take Chinese “military assistance” to Pakistan. Does China possess the technology, which the U.S. is systematically passing on to Pakistan? Izvestiya reported that during the visit by Defence Minister A.K. Antony to Moscow recently, the two sides discussed the development of a new supersonic missile “invincible to interception,” which “no army in the world possesses.” Has China, which faces a worldwide embargo, got any competing military technology to pass on to Pakistan? Also, let us not completely overlook that China is coping to balance its “all-weather friendship” when the U.S. is systematically tightening its vice-like AfPak grip.

How about the nukes for starters?

Should be read in full. Illustrates the true political leanings of the news papers which publishes such barely concealed propaganda which may even not find a place in Sinhua/People's daily.

pgbhat · Post by **pgbhat** » 02 Nov 2009 04:00

Frozen Smiles, limp handshakes ---- Vikram Sood

Quite often, many ask if India will ever catch up with China. The figures of military spending, the size of the economies, the rate of growth, the amount of money spent by each country on infrastructure, electricity production, agricultural produce, research and development and reserves held, confirm that the gap is enormous. Mohan Guruswamy and Zorawar Daulet Singh in their latest book Chasing the Dragon: Will India Catch Up with China? make this quite clear. Even though Goldman Sachs predicts that China, the US and India will be the three largest global economies by 2050, it would be more realistic for India to aspire to be a global player whose voice will be heard rather than attaining the status of a superpower. The question we need to ask is can China afford to catch up with India’s raucous democracy and still survive?China has endeavoured to restrict India’s influence to its borders. Only recently, it reminded our neighbours that India had hegemonistic tendencies while extending its “peaceful” relationship with them, while claiming “harmonious rise” in a wary neighbourhood. The prime example of this is the manner in which China has godfathered Pakistan’s India-specific nuclear and missile capabilities.

China is our powerful neighbour and India and China are not in the same league. Pakistan refused to accept this reality in its relations with India and today finds itself adrift despite valiant US efforts to shore up its ally. It is best to accept the India-China reality and fashion our responses accordingly.

There is nothing to be gained either by becoming a hysterical tabloid nation when it comes to a bigger neighbour or a helpless flailing state when we have to deal with a smaller neighbour. We simply have to evolve a method of peaceful cohabitation; there is nothing to be gained by jingoism and everything to be lost by seeming to be weak and succumbing to pressure. It is quite likely that the Chinese leadership will glower at us from across the Himalayas; should that happen we should not blink — and it should not be that His Holiness suddenly develops a diplomatic illness! That would be most unfortunate because that would, in effect, give the Chinese a veto on our relations with His Holiness and decide who visits Tawang.

Thus, we need to be able to protect our interests more effectively, at and inside our borders, in our neighbourhood, the seas that surround us and in Asia. Therefore, massive infrastructure development is required in the Northeast which is people-friendly and not simply meant to cater to our strategic requirements. There has to be two-way socio-cultural assimilation of the region with the rest of India. Instead of buying loss-making companies abroad, we should be adopting regions for development. It is in our interest to develop friendlier relationships with countries on China’s periphery and strengthening relationships with the US and Japan is part of this policy. The armed forces — all three wings — need upgrading, with long-range strike aircrafts as well.

kittoo · Post by **kittoo** » 02 Nov 2009 04:15

sanjaykumar wrote:Unfortunately Indians are among the most uncouth of the middle classes anywhere. Most would not know what to do with a book.

General knowledge is pitiful, independent opinion nonexistant. In addition to stocks their idea
Of culture is memorizing bollywood lyrics to regurgitate with the intake of whiskey. I compare this to some of the conversations I have with white professionals and most Indians appear retarded.

This may puncture some ballons but that may be necessary.

OT alert:
I kinda agree. Once I was with my and two other other families going a hill station in a Sumo. Howsoever I tried to turn the discussions towards current affairs or foreign relations etc, the discussion till the end was whether Priyanka Chopra was cheap and whether Aishwarya left Salmaan intentionally or he forced her by beating her!

Sorry for the OT. Last post on this.

csharma · Post by **csharma** » 02 Nov 2009 06:20

From Rajiv Sikri's interview on India's Look East Policy.

http://www.ipcs.org/pdf_file/issue/SR85 ... Sikri1.pdf

What is China’s role in Southeast Asia and how is it
affecting India’s Look East Policy?
China does not favour a strong Indian presence and
influence in Southeast Asia. China is aware of the
various cultural and spiritual ties that India shares with
Southeast Asia, which could naturally attract the two
regions to come closer. China knows that India is the
only country that could possibly challenge its
ascendancy and potential hegemony in Asia, and
therefore it makes sense for China to try hard to keep
India under pressure. Traditionally, China has been
very dismissive of India, which it treats as a mere
South Asian player. However, over the last decade
or so, the Chinese have been somewhat puzzled and
intrigued by the steady rate of India’s economic
growth and its political stability. So they have no
option but to take India more seriously.

As Lisa Curtis was saying that China are having to factor India in a way that they did not imagine 10-15 years ago.
That's what leading to this aggressive behavior.

As KS says India has to keep the growth rate high and add trade links to some selected countries. ASEAN and South Korea case in point. Both EU and Japan are working on a free trade agreement with India.

MMS deserves kudos for understanding the strategic nature of the FTA and doing the heavy lifting inspite of Congress not being 100% in favor.

From Rajiv Sikri's interview:

The Prime Minister deserves
credit for grasping the strategic significance of FTAs.
However, in going in for FTAs, one cannot ignore
the interests of the numerous India stakeholders. The
fact that it took six years instead of two years to
conclude the India-ASEAN FTA shows how careful
the government and the negotiators have been to take
on board the concerns of stakeholders. I think that
India’s interests have been preserved in the FTA.

csharma · Post by **csharma** » 02 Nov 2009 06:57

Cross posting from US China India thread.

IPCS discussion on India China and US. This was held in may 2007.

http://www.ipcs.org/pdf_file/issue/5146 ... _May07.pdf

Is war with China unthinkable? Will such an assumption not weaken the
Indian defense posture? Secondly, borders have been softened but no
borders have been redrawn. India should not drop its deterrence.

While a war with China is unthinkable in the political and strategic sense,
in a purely military view, China should continue to define Indian military
capabilities. One reason that war is unthinkable is that India today
possesses an effective deterrent capability against China. This does not
mean that India will not prepare its defenses. Indian presence is strong on
the border and it has acquired strategic strength with its nuclear
programme. Moreover, the Chinese believe that one should despise the
enemy strategically and respect him tactically. The Chinese are aware of
the risks involved in attacking the Indian border. Therefore, there is no
contradiction in asserting that war is unthinkable and still maintaining
guard.
War between India and China is unthinkable because, in the context of
globalization, the possibility of conflict is made absolutely remote. Neither
India nor China’s national interests would be furthered as a consequence
of war. Maintaining military deterrent capability is a means to maintain
peace.

Tawang Issue

Since the late 1980s, India has been aware that the Tawang issue
would come up in the future. However, the nature of dialogue on the
border issue has indicated that Indian case on Tawang is very strong.
One of the basic principles on which the border issue is to be resolved is
that the populated areas should not be considered for any exchange.
Fortunately, in Tawang, India has an entrenched and strong position.
The effective administration in the region can be dated to a much
earlier date. However, China will raise this issue again as a bargaining
position on the overall settlement of the border question. It is in this
complexity that the India-China relations will evolve in the future. India
must be prepared for all these complexities.

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 02 Nov 2009 08:10

Hari Seldon wrote:Er, SSridhar saar, typo here onlee...

Hari, thanks. Corrected it.

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 02 Nov 2009 10:59

Masaru wrote:
China-Pakistan relationship has literally become a no-go area for rational analysis in our country. Myths are galore, pride mixes with prejudice and self-righteousness. Take Chinese “military assistance” to Pakistan. Does China possess the technology, which the U.S. is systematically passing on to Pakistan? Izvestiya reported that during the visit by Defence Minister A.K. Antony to Moscow recently, the two sides discussed the development of a new supersonic missile “invincible to interception,” which “no army in the world possesses.” Has China, which faces a worldwide embargo, got any competing military technology to pass on to Pakistan? Also, let us not completely overlook that China is coping to balance its “all-weather friendship” when the U.S. is systematically tightening its vice-like AfPak grip.

That was exactly the same scenario I encountered yesterday in the talk about which I posted earlier. The person who argued about giving away Tawang and building up Indian opinion through opinion-makers is as well known as M.K. Bhadrakumar who wrote the above article. The China-Pakistan nexus was dismissed as immaterial in the India-China bilateral relationship, though it was acknowledged that China had transferred some nuclear technology like ring magnets and missiles. Forgive me. Just ring magnets ?

It is surprising that a person like Mr. Bhadrakumar does not realize that sophisticated weapons are not necessary (which China may not manufacture) to deter another country; even a Chic-4 bomb and inaccurate missiles would do. It is scary when top-level Indians exhibit such clear short-sightedness and lack of knowledge.

csharma · Post by **csharma** » 02 Nov 2009 11:20

Pervez Hoodbhoy has himself described that China's assistance was much more than ring magnets and included technology and knowhow to make the bomb.

It is hard to understand where these MKB type of guys are coming from.

Masaru · Post by **Masaru** » 02 Nov 2009 12:55

SSridhar wrote: It is surprising that a person like Mr. Bhadrakumar does not realize that sophisticated weapons are not necessary (which China may not manufacture) to deter another country; even a Chic-4 bomb and inaccurate missiles would do. It is scary when top-level Indians exhibit such clear short-sightedness and lack of knowledge.

For starters he should be made to read the extensive proliferation activity that PRC has indulged in before going on and on about 'harmonious rise' and recommending in essence that every body should behave as a vassal state to PRC.

Here is a very good documentation; I am sure mods here are aware of it.

China's Nuclear Exports and Assistance to Pakistan