Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -II

[RamaY]

RamaY wrote
Taking it to a different plane, Bharat offers a unique solution to Pak-Af problem. It offers the ideology, leadership-will, capabilities, and space to counter the chaos that are emanating from paki-lands destabilizing entire world. India’s solution to Pak-Af quagmire could be (in that order)

Ideology maybe, but leadership-will, capabilities? Where do you see it?

B-ji,

For all its inadequacies, Indian leadership fought internal terrorism very well. It destroyed Khalistani terrorism and contained JK terrorism. Once the “external influences” are removed from the canvas, Khalistan strategy can be extended to other areas as well.

[brihaspati]

I have no doubts about capabilities when the target is "home-grown". Over all rashtryia control over the society in which the target lurks - is already firmly established. That substrate society can be easily penetrated for intelligence, manipulation, and coercion. All the "success storie" so far belong to that category. But can that performance be repeated without first gaining direct rashtryia rule over territiories outside current borders?

The will factor is even more problematic. There was solid "will" in exterminating Telengana (early) and Bengali Naxalites, Khalistanis, some factions in the NE - but if you look carefully, none of their ideologies openly include Islamism or Christianism. The same capabilities and will that exterminated Khalistani-Sikh-Punjabis somehow only "contained" the J&K Islamic militants but never exterminated them - even though both movements were almost similarly being supplied by TSP. What would be more curious to explore is about what possible role is played by religious background of the "Communist extremists" in modifying potential "will". Both Andhra and the NE are relevant.

[RamaY]

^^^ B-ji,

I too opined the same way a couple of months in one of these threads, and am cognizant of these dimensions. If Bharat can convince the world powers on the above plan, it will provide the necessary critical mass to implement Khalistan option on the other issues as well.

Somewhere deep down the vishnugupta is confident of Indian leadership

[surinder]

It can perhaps be compared to the tactic of human management of beehives for extraction of honey. Indians, like the bees, gather and accumulate the honey in the hive. When the hive is ripe and full, the humans in the neighbourhood who have been watching and waiting and allowing the bees to work away, smoke the bees out.

B, it would be nice to know if this is a phenomena typical of India, or of the entire world. Do other states display this as well? To the same extent? If it is shows up more for India, then one has to see if this is because of our peculiar geography, or national psyche or both. Furthermore, what can we do to prevent this from occuring.

Certainly, what you said many months ago still rings true. There is almost a clamorous cry for India to develop itself firtst, before having a solid defence. This obviously has meant that fill up the honey, and not worry about defending it. India cannot afford to do this again & again. The ability to protect the honey is as vital as the ability to make it.

[Prem]

It can perhaps be compared to the tactic of human management of beehives for extraction of honey. Indians, like the bees, gather and accumulate the honey in the hive. When the hive is ripe and full, the humans in the neighbourhood who have been watching and waiting and allowing the bees to work away, smoke the bees out.

solid defence. This obviously has meant that fill up the honey, and not worry about defending it. India cannot afford to do this again & again. The ability to protect the honey is as vital as the ability to make it.

This again boils down to old, almost medieval fundamental question . Indians have not learned to pop heads or slice necks on grand scale . ME and West have set up many fine examples in this regard. Unless we take te battle into the heart of enemy terrirory , the dream and idea of ruining or ruling India will remain in the psyche of many adversaries. WASP mentality ought to be developed and encouraged to play and pay back with Interests.

[brihaspati]

Surinder,
Historically, perhaps there were no society that preached "only economic development first" and then "defend". There is a standard argument that if you do not have the economic resources to fund a war then there is no point in preparaing for war (defensive or offensive) before economic development. On the otherhand there is also a counter argument that technological and civilizational progress - in material times - have advanced only because of war. To kill better, societies needed to innovate better killing machines which in turn developed technology. A society that manages to be superior fighters can actually leap-frog the technological barriers and lack of economic development by looting the resources and appropriating the knowledge base of a more economically advanced but militarily loser society. Certainly - history tends to provide more evidence for the latter than the former.

When the Romans began rising militarily - they destroyed, looted and appropriated the knowledge base of far older, more sophisticated, and economically advanced civilizations like the Etruscans, Greeks and Carthaginians. After they had grown fat, they were destroyed, looted and their knowledge-base appropriated by the Geramanic "barbarians" who had not accummulated so much wealth or knowledge. The Arab tribes who marshalled under Islam were an even better illustration. They quickly overran the remainder of the Mesopotamian and Persian cultures - especially the Persian empire was definitely far ahead of the Arabs "economically" and knowledge wise. The case of Islamics and India or Egypt is too well known. Same case with China. It fell to Mongolian hordes of Kublai Khan who did not have the resources, economic develeopment and "knowledge base" of the plains Chinese.

So, economic development without the capacity to project military power beyond borders and pre-empt any potential marauder in the neighbourhood, almost always results in smoking the bees away and the honey looted. That is the lesson of history. Whether that history is going to repeat or not depends on how the "bees" learn from such history. But the problem is in real nature - bees probably never learn. In human societies there is a persistent voice that rejects history as indicator of future just as there are voices who want to go back in history.

[brihaspati]

Prem ji,
Let us look at the sum total of the situation in our western border:

(1) More soldiers planned for AFG to manage Taleban, but there is no sign of Taleban retreating or weakening or losing control of the countryside.
(2) TSP rules out campaigns against the Talebs for the next 6 months at least! Probably seasons are changing, and winter this year is going to last till summer!
(3) No decline in the blasts and atrocities against civilians within TSP. However no popular upsurge or outrage against the system.
(4) Neither the military nor the civilian gov nor the ISI shows any signs of instability, in spite of plenty of psy-ops about drastic and dramatic changes in each, or all three.
(5) LET shows no signs of weakening and rumoured to be planning fresh attacks.
(6) Intellectuals on both sides renew the clamour for "people-to-people" contact.
(7) Media on both sides demand "fresh and innovative and out-of-the-box" look at the "Kashmir issue(India)/problem(TSP)".
(8) TSP insists on delinking "terrorism" and the "Kashmir/Baloch problem" and the "dialogue"
(9) There is no let down in TSP's declared plans to expand its nuke and missile programme
(10) TSPA "clears" north and west but Taleban remains intact. There can be no independent confirmation about actual claims of clearance from the ground.

Add to that the supposed "limitations" in taking action against Jihadis on ground :

(1) the military cannot and should not do anything that alienates the "population"
(2) it is a "difficult" terrain
(3) much greater concentration of firepower needed (as in Kargil) - not known whether such concentration can be mounted at widely separated points along the border with TSP simultaneously in case of a "wide frontal" assault by TSP or extension of conflict from Indian "action".

Why we must all hang in a limbo about TSP: Anyone who does not believe in the following is living-in-the-past/fascist/Hindu-revivalist/communal/destroyer of Pax-Indica.

(1) TSP is driven in its murderous hatred of India by a special ideology unique to TSP - lets say "Pakism". Pakism has nothing to do with the majority faith in TSP, and its murderous hatred is not sourced from that faith. Pakism is defined in terms of Pakism. Which means we can only know more of Pakism after Pakism has motivated more atrocities on India. At some future time point we will know sufficiently about Pakism to understand Pakism, and then we can decide on appropriate response.
(2) Since Pakism cannot be understood in terms of other apparently related phenomena like Jihad, we cannot use our undertsanding of Jihad to predict future TSP behaviour.
(3) we know that the IM is completely loyal to the cause and idea of India, and therefore we cannot do anything to TSP that hurts the IM sentiments. We must never acknowledge formally but silently believe that what we say about IM loyalty to India is something we do not believe inside and we are mortally scared that they all believe TSP to be the paragon of Islam and they all identify with Pakism. Therefore any negative move on TSP may divide India and destroy peace. Even though IM place India above their faith and they are peaceful and do not identify with TSP.
(4) the time has come for "innovative and imaginative" solutions never tried before to be tried boldly for J&K. However the exact nature of that path-breaking solution is a matter of diplomatic secrecy and negotiation. It cannot be made public. There are issues of tactical and strategic "deception" that are a necessary part of such negotiations. We should understand that public disclosure before time can bring political opposition from the public and things must necessarily be kept from the public for the good of the public. Anger and outrage for what the public feels emotionally as unjustified concessions is not good for the health of the public.
(5) Violent retribution on TSP for sponsored terror acts on India can unnecessarily entangle India in all-out war which we can surely win and the army fully prepared for that but which will destroy our economic development and prosperity. Economic development is our only target.
(6) If TSP destabilizes - India will suffer. However the nature of that suffering should not be explored further - for it is difficult to explain why an essentially peaceful, by faith peaceful, general population will suddenly turn destructive for India once the overall state structure breaks into smaller states. This can throw up Jihadi motivations which should never be brought up.

[abhischekcc]

what india is today would need to be credited to PVNR. he is the only person responsible for initiating the process of transformation.

True ! In the meanwhile

Sonia hails former PMs, ignores Narsimha Rao

And why should SHE mention Rao. He was instrumental in destroying the power base of the Nehru family so comprehensively that no member of that family has even become PM again.

[brihaspati]

State of India's Muslims Pivotal in Reinforcement of Tehran-New Delhi Ties

Sunday, 10 January 2010 10:40

Iran's Ambassador to India, Mahdi Nabizadeh, has emphasized that the state of Indian Muslims’ affairs impacts the reinforcement of Iran-India relations.

A new line from Iranian theocracy? Do they want to present themselves as rivals for leadership of the Muslim Ummah, even on the subcontinent? Or is it a hint of a potential new alliance between GOI and the Iranian "Shi-ites" as a counter to Sunni domination? Not a very happy strategy for the long run. India should play equidistant from both for the future.

[svinayak]

A new line from Iranian theocracy? Do they want to present themselves as rivals for leadership of the Muslim Ummah, even on the subcontinent?

THis is simple hedging.
International relations will be like this now.

[Prem]

BSir ji,
Its good that GOI got slappped by this Mullah representative of fanatic theocratic Iranian government . Let the seculars worry about failling mark by their Mullah Mentors. The issue is not about Ummah leadership tussle but how dare a 2 bit Mullah interfere in our Internal affairs. This is the direct result of soft face policy adopted by GOI.
I agree with your previous assesment of threat from Wesern border. I believe we need another decade of fast economic development to Quadruple our GDP to get out of the net cast by 3.5 Auliyas of Pakistans. Till then India has verry little options but to show restrain or moral outrage . Only concern and hope is that Military Knife will be sharp enough when time comes to do the quiet jatka of both ideological and physical Pak. Good old boy Time is on our side , we are gonna ascend regardless of hurdles by our well wishers.

[Prem]

="Acharya"]

A new line from Iranian theocracy? Do they want to present themselves as rivals for leadership of the Muslim Ummah, even on the subcontinent?

THis is simple hedging.
International relations will be like this now.[/

This after MMS decare the first right for them over our natural resources. Guess he forgot to mention who, Shias or Sunnis. Seriously, the statement seen in context of Scaharites , Khalidi, Azamgarhi, Harit Pardeshi efforts reminds of Rai Bhadurs' dealings with British for their own (domestic) agenda of personal glory. Who was this Mulla's audiences?

[vera_k]

I believe we need another decade of fast economic development to Quadruple our GDP to get out of the net cast by 3.5 Auliyas of Pakistans. Till then India has verry little options but to show restrain or moral outrage .

I'm afraid this will take another 20 years. Economic development will have to be followed by independence in R&D so that existing weapons can be manufactured at will and ground broken on new types of weapon technologies.

[abhischekcc]

The biggest wet dreams of almost every muslim country is to establish itself as the caliphate. Agter the dissolution of the last caliphate (turkey), this has been the strongest factor within the muslim world.

Iran's foreign policy aggression (commonly known as terrorism against Israel and pursuit of nuclear weapons ) have to be understood in this light. Terror against Israel is the only factor that attracts Sunnis to Iran, hence it is fundamental building block in Iran's FP. (It seems that muslims are able to define themselves only in opposition to an enemy - this is a fundamental weakness of all monotheistic religions).

And so should this statement. Although, I will add that this statement shows that previous Indo-Iranian bonhomie is coming to an end (mostly because of MMS's stupidity in voting against Iran during the negotiations for the nuclear deal).

It also shows that Iran is trying to set itself up as rehnuma to India's muslims, as an alternative to KSA and Pakistan - essentially meaning that the international Shia-Sunni conflict is expanding to India.

There is a lesson in this.

[abhischekcc]

brihaspati,

Can you mail me at bushlovesosama at-de-rate gee mail dawt com?

Need to talk to you about something.

Abcc

[abhischekcc]

One of the main reasons why the smaller countries in India's periphery are in turmoil is excessive foreign interference - primarily western, but increasingly Chinese as well.

Since the instability in these countries deeply impacts India's security, we have a legitimate right to intervene in our immediate neighbourhood to ward off foreign interference.

[brihaspati]

abhischekcc,

I just feel that the two sides Shia+Sunni should be played carefully. Briefly, the stress should be on "restoration" of secular democracy in Iran and hold out hope for the "democrats" there. Too much patronizing the clerics on either side is counter-productive.

[brihaspati]

The Yemeni geo-politics is becoming most interesting, It is a mini cold war being played out to secure on the one hand rwsources, and on the other, ownership of the "hearts and minds' of the Ummah. Whicever of the two contestants among the self-styled "original/pure" Islamic "ashrafs" - Saudi Arabia or Iran, gains Yemen, ceases the economic flow between the East and the West, through controlling the mouth of the Red Sea into IOR. So it becomes imperative for the KSA to rpevent Iranaina asencdancy in Yemen.

Whereas if Iran gains Yemen, it can stretch out and outflank the USA+KSA strategic presence on the western side of the Gulf. Both sides are therefore likely to accuse the other of carrying out a proxy war in Yemen. What is strange is the supposed existence of the Al Qaeda in Yemen, with solid origins from KSA and one-time collaboration with USA (Osama's connections during the anti-USSR AFG war), and the simultaneous supposed Irannian sponsoring of the Shi-ite Houthi's. But no reports of conflict between Qaeda and the Houthis.

Added complication is the often missed problem of the Al Ahwaz area under Iran. This is claimed to be a primarily "Arab" area and population with the greatest concentration of natural gas/petrol resources of Iran. There is a separatist movement based on this claim, and their spokespersosn find sympathetic ears in Yemen.

It is possible that USA+KSA allow Al-Ahwaz separatists to function to pick at Iran, while Iran allows the Shia tribes in north Yemen to function to pick at USA+KSA. But a connection between Qaeda and Iran is interesting to the point of absurdity. They obviously can have common purpose - overthrow of the Saudi Royal regime and then wiping off Israel. But how far will this Shia-Sunni collaboration go? Iran can very well think of sponsoring Osama, as an antidote to Israel+USA. But how much will the Arabian Sunnis accept Sh-ite domination? They have accepted "non-Arabic" Islamic over-lordship before though - Ottoman Turks for example.

Or is it entirely a representaion to tar and feather Iran and Qaeda together? It will be important to see how far Iran digests attacks against Shias in TSP and still doe snothing against TSP. The Iranian diplomat's recent statement mentioned above is worrying to a certain extent as Iran could be trying to take up leadership of Muslims on the subcontinent as a means of pressurizing the GOI.

Being seen as "sympathetic" to theologians in the various Islam dominated countries can appear sweet as a strategy for the moment - but it is much better to think of the future in these countries in the loing run. The best bet lies in holding out the hope for a liberal democracy in todays youth in these countries. If we have to choose sides, lets choose it on the side of the future of these countries. Assuming a blanket trend towards extremism could be realistic but does not help us to divide up these societies so that the theologians do not get all the advantages of a united society behind them!

[brihaspati]

Interestingly Yemen had a Marxist party almost in power (in a part before unification) just like a similar oarty in Iran whose antics were hijacked by the Ayatollahs - may with blessings from the anti-communist leaguers of the Cold War days. But a reformed "leftism" could be a good tool to spoil the fun in both Iran and Yemen.

[brihaspati]

The death sentences against the condemned army- personnel indicted for the assassination of Sk. Mujubur Rehman in BD, are most likely to be carried out early this morning. There may not be any immediate backlash against the hangings. But the hangings are likely to convert the executed into icons for the militant Islamists in BD and their supporters in the Islamic world. The trial and execution already generated several threats against state personnel and politicians, but nothing concrete has yet taken place.

There was substantial proportion of voters who voted for candidates not belong the Awami League led alliance, and a proportion of this vote would overlap with the "Islamist" vote. The move towards de-religionization of politics in BD has already brought out the Islamists in protest especially against any move aimed at weakeing or delegetimizing "Islamic poilitics".

Militant, hegemonistic Islamism has now managed to manipulate "western powers" into getting trapped into a war of attrition which the western mind is bungling becuase it has failed to understand "Islamism". The greatest factor in this bungling has been the dominant academic sociological schools of thought - led by various shades of the Marxists - that overemphasized the role of economics as primary motivations for violence and hegemony. This extremely biased and narrow view of societal dynamics that almost completely downplayed the role of "ideologies", forced public and foreign policies that were completely unrealistic and inappropriate - especially in dealing with Islamic radicalism.

The result has now been an extension of the "west" versus "Islamism" war - from a small zone in AFPAK and Sudan, into all of AFG and Pakistan, into the Horn of Africa - Mauritania, sub-Saharan Africa, Somalia, Sudan, Iraq, and Yemen, with branches leading into BD, Malaysia, southern Thailand, Indonesia, parts of Phillipines, almost the entirety of Saharan and sub-Saharan Africa, Egypt, and spreading into Central Asia.

For BD, the executions will probably be used by the Islamists as an indication of the AL governments connections and alleged "dependence" on countries like India and the USA - deemed to be among the "enemies" of Islam - (in spite of the zealous protestations to the contrary from the most vocal sections of Indian society and polity). If Islamism gains in sentiments in BD, the AL government will be forced to depend more and more on India and this will push the polarization further. Such a polarization in itself is not bad for India, if India can see a clear plocity towards Islamic radicalism. However, so far Indian reaction has been self-contradictory - as it still mostly holds on to the Marxists myths of "all radicalsim comes from lack of economic development". So this part remains uncertain for the future.

[ramana]

The biggest wet dreams of almost every muslim country is to establish itself as the caliphate. Agter the dissolution of the last caliphate (turkey), this has been the strongest factor within the muslim world.

Iran's foreign policy aggression (commonly known as terrorism against Israel and pursuit of nuclear weapons ) have to be understood in this light. Terror against Israel is the only factor that attracts Sunnis to Iran, hence it is fundamental building block in Iran's FP. (It seems that muslims are able to define themselves only in opposition to an enemy - this is a fundamental weakness of all monotheistic religions).

And so should this statement. Although, I will add that this statement shows that previous Indo-Iranian bonhomie is coming to an end (mostly because of MMS's stupidity in voting against Iran during the negotiations for the nuclear deal).

It also shows that Iran is trying to set itself up as rehnuma to India's muslims, as an alternative to KSA and Pakistan - essentially meaning that the international Shia-Sunni conflict is expanding to India.

There is a lesson in this.

Most of these people(dreamers) dont have the minimum qualifications for that.

1) Belong to Qureshi tribe of Arabia
2) Possess the Sword of the Prophet (Zulfiqar): Currently in Topkapi Museum


It wasn't for nothing that the Mir Osman Ali, the last Nizam got the daughters(Princess Nilofer and Darul Shafa) of the last Caliph married to his two sons. Gains legitimacy in ummah eyes. Also the first Nizam, Qin Quilich Khan, Asaf Jah the I claimed descent from Abu Bakr the first Caliph. After the Nizam of Hyderabad I dont see how anyone can claim them.

In the meantime the Ibn Saud family without any of these marks has gotten primacy in KSA and wealth after the oil boom. And they wont let the power slip out to new Caliph.

[brihaspati]

The dynamic of the "Islamist politics" is changing. Regimes like the "royal" house in KSA will become increasingly identified with and dependent on the "west". Looking carefully as to how USA is being forced to shift its military attention, from Iraq, to AFG, to Pakistan, back to AFG, back to Iraq, to Yemen - all the while the militancy is gaining recruits across north and central Africa - spanning the two oceans is iluustrative. Increasingly the Islamist militancy is taking on its tarditional twin front struggle. On the one hand it is the struggle between theologians and temporal rulers for ultimate dominance of the Islamist movement. On the other it is the dream of conquering the whole world in the name of Islam.

In time, the "royal houses" in KSA/Jordan or the emirates - will lose their prestige and position if the Islamist movement continues under the radical theologians. On the one hand - there is the exclusivist strand of claims of bloodline/clan connections to the Qureyish. On the other there is the urge to gain popular representation and empowerment irrespective of bloodlines within the "greater" Islamic identity - this is the Iranian trend. Over the long run, the ideals of "democracy" and empowerment prevalent in non-islamic societies will reinforce and strengthen its twisting into Iranian style theocracy dominated "populist" Islamic rule.

The "life span" of the Saudi royal house will be short if the "house" does not make tactical compromises with the "populist Islamism".

[Lilo]

India's Groupthink on Islam - Sadanand Dhume (WSJ)

The Indian debate about Islam has remained frozen in a time warp. The mainstream intellectuals who dominate the country's editorial pages and television channels tend to trace the Muslim world's problems almost exclusively to the alleged misdeeds of Israel and the United States. The Hindu right doesn't make this mistake, but its tendency to group all Muslims together, its inability to distinguish between Islam as a religion and Islamism as an ideology, and its championing of causes important to the most orthodox Hindu believers shades into bigotry and religious chauvinism.

In Jaipur, Ms. Hirsi Ali challenged the assumptions of both groups. She was flatly unapologetic about her views on Islamic theology, but at the same time she urged the audience to think of Muslims as "individuals who are capable of changing their mind."

But on a downside Javed Akhtar came across as the latest peddler of conspiracy theories

Javed Akhtar, a prominent writer of Bollywood lyrics, declared that "all Islamic fanaticism and fundamentalism is nurtured by the U.S.A.," and accused the U.S. government of deliberately hiding the "fact" that Osama bin Laden was dead.

[RayC]

Javaed Akhtar and Mahesh Bhat are God's gift to fantasy weaving!

And of course, we have the good ole Shabana and Teesta to add to the decibel level!

[abhishek_sharma]

Javed Akhtar, a prominent writer of Bollywood lyrics, declared that "all Islamic fanaticism and fundamentalism is nurtured by the U.S.A.," and accused the U.S. government of deliberately hiding the "fact" that Osama bin Laden was dead.

I hope that he informed the US Ambassador to India about this problem

http://photos.state.gov/galleries/india ... 110/7.html

[brihaspati]

Was hoping that the news would be picked up and discussed on the TSP or AFG threads. But here it is,
Karzai invites Taliban to peace talk of elders: Secret preliminary gathering held Jan. 8 with U.N. envoy
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/201 ... of-elders/

This was something I had expected and written about long ago. On the point of confirming the cliche about the supposed tendency in some of us to preen ourselves in referring back to our previous predictions - I have tried to consistently make people consider the sequence:

(1) Obama admin's desicion to "stabilize" the AFG front as a front to eventual evacuation and abandonment of AFPAK.

(2) An apparent increase in military presence in AFPAK to discount impressions of eventual withdrawal.

(3) Talebjabis initiate their plan to use the AFPAK border and its connected Pakjab, Swat, POk as the core for a future neo-Caliphate.

(4) The Talebjabi thrust is towards southern AFG in one direction, and the POK+Pakjab in the east. The AFG elections, and the US pressure on TSPA to take action against Talebs is used by the TSPA and Talebs to provide cover for a retreat into the planned expansion directions. The TSPA can "pursue" the Talebs north-west and north-east-east and leave "prisoners/MIA" and military hardware in the base areas of the Talebs for the future use by Talebs.

(5) Obama admin will discover that there exists a "good Taleban". If it does not exist, KSA and TSPA/ISI will help to invent one. The US admin needs a politically correct justification to withdraw from AFPAK. The strategic need of the neo-Caliphate and the political need of US admin coincides to initiate plans to have a "government of national consensus" in AFG including the "good Taleban".

(6) The US admin completely fails to understand the true military-political-ideological viciousness of Jihadi Islam and the long term Caliphatic tendency of the newly resurgent Islamic militancy - with a good deal of stupid pontification from academic sociologists and historians influenced by "vulgar Marxism" thinking that all human activity is determined by economic motives. So the formal policy initiated is economic appeasement of Jihad, which is exactly what Jihadi Islams tactical objective has been right from its formation. At its core Jihad's policy has always been to apply terror and trauma consistently and persistently over very long periods of time on societies which are more productive than the Islamic ones - so that the "peace tax" can be used to extract resources from the compromising societies to strengthen the Islamic one towards the next stage of Islamic expansion.

(7) The "all terrorism vanishes when economic prosperity comes" blunder-theory is applied n AFPAK, and international "peace tax" is collected by the Talebjabis in TSO and AFG in preparation for consolidation of the core of the neo-Caliphate for the next planned expansion into Indian subcontinent in the east primarily into northern-India and north-west into most of AFG.

(8) The KSA and Iranian theocracy get involved in a competition to claim leadership of the newly resurgent Islamic militancy and the future Caliphate. Ironically this does not lead to weakening of the pan-Islamic militancy but the militant leadership bargains with both and gains from both. KSA and other "monarchy" based ME Islamic regimes will be increasingly forced to appease the militants but still unable to turn back the tide towards Islamic-theocratic-democracy in the model of Iran.

(9) Pan-Islamist militancy gradually moves the strategic confrontational chess-pieces along a line running from Phillipines, Indonesia, through Malaysia, BD, northern India, AFPAK, Yemen, Egypt+Sudan+Somalia, Horn of Africa. They need to clear off the breach-head into the near East from the Mediterranean - Israel. Already, the "western forces" are on a retreat, and are being pushed back south-and west along this line. Behind this push is reflected the rising political and economic clout of thr troika of China, Russia and Iran -each perhaps not wanting the ultimate victory of Islamic militancy - but being sicked into virtually letting Jihadis have a field day because of complex and interconnected national startegic objectives.

These can be deemed pessimistic or "paranoid" vision of the future, but I have seen nothing so far that has contradicted the projections I had made at least a year ago.

[Jarita]

We are on our own and I think the govt realises that.
All these inducements are nothing but peace tax - No flag in Kashmir (blatant), reservations for perceived victimhood, illegals rewarded etc.

[ramana]

From Ram Narayanan:

Dear Friends:

The following article published just a month ago by a former US diplomat, William H Avery, offers some sensible advice to India's foreign policy planners. However, I disagree with his prescription that India should quit NAM. Perhaps its name should be changed because the non-aligned nomenclature no longer makes sense. Having said that, let me assert my strong conviction that India should never abandon the poor nations. Instead, India must continue to actively help build their economies via trade, investment, training and soft power thereby enhancing her international influence.

Cheers,

Ram Narayanan

http://www.financialexpress.com/news/co ... s/561592/0

THE FINANCIAL EXPRESS, DECEMBER 31, 2009

How the next decade can be India’s

WILLIAM H AVERY

In the past decade India has proved its resilience. The nation survived two global recessions and multiple terrorist attacks with its secular democracy intact and its economy stronger than ever. Along the way it gained de facto admission to the club of nuclear weapon states and established itself as a future world power.

India’s task in the coming decade is to make this future a reality. For the world to accept India as a major power, it has to start acting like one, not just talking like one. Here are 10 things that should be on India’s to-do list for the next 10 years:

Quit NAM: The organisation’s membership is a who’s who of third rate powers. To be in NAM is a declaration of impotence. India has outgrown it, and should withdraw. The remaining members can then non-align themselves against India if they wish.

Forget the UN Security Council: Indians should be embarrassed at its government’s repeated requests for a permanent seat on the UNSC. It is a legacy institution comprised of the victors of a war that ended 65 years ago. Three of its five members are declining powers. India should look towards the 21st century and prepare itself for the new conflicts that will confer great power status.

Build a world-class navy: India has the fourth largest navy in the world—in terms of manpower. But wars are won by tonnage, not by headcount. In tonnage, India’s navy is currently seventh, behind France and at one half of China’s strength. India needs to be among the top three in navy: at par with China and behind only the US. [See article by a former Commander-in-Chief of the Eastern Naval Command who draws attention to the unfortunate fact that "decision making in the Ministry of Defence is now very fragile, both in speed and quality. Any discerning observer can see that the country’s maritime power is not just stagnating but is on a steep decline." http://www.business-standard.com/india/ ... ne/384128/]

Complete the NPT Two-Step: It’s a nice dance move. Say the NPT is discriminatory and you will not sign it. Get an exemption to trade in nuclear technology anyway. Then, once you are a de facto nuclear weapon state, say you would like to be admitted to the NPT. It will be another triumph of nuclear cunning if India can pull it off.

Police the neighbourhood: India was traumatised by the IPKF experience but must get over it. Great powers do not let anyone mess with them in their neighbourhood. A young America declared in the Monroe Doctrine of 1823 that it would not tolerate any further European colonies in the Western Hemisphere. Britain sees as an act of aggression occupation of the low country ports of Holland or Belgium by another power. Russia fought a war in 2008 to keep Georgia from getting too chummy with NATO. So, why is India letting the Chinese build a port in Sri Lanka? India has to defend its perimeter or it will find itself vulnerable to more strategic-thinking adversaries.

Lock up natural resources: Here India needs to take a page from China’s playbook. From South America to Africa, China has been sealing deals for the minerals to feed its growing industrial base. India has to start to catch up, and quickly.

Start India’s own H-1B programme: It is time for India to become a net importer of talent. Smart employees worldwide will flock to India’s growth. If Mumbai is to become a global financial centre, it will have to have as many foreigners as Hong Kong or London.

{Its already there: Bangla Deshi immigrants and Bollywood personnel. India will attract the best of the world once its economy starts moving up. More than that it wont see the exodus of its own talent.}

Open up the higher education sector: Apart from infrastructure, education is India’s greatest barrier to faster, more inclusive economic growth. For higher education, many students have no choice but to go abroad for studies, and their parents’ money goes with them. Others can neither afford to go abroad nor get a place in India. This is an intolerable situation for a nation that values education and self-improvement. The only way to change it fast is with outside help. The government should pass the Foreign Education Providers Bill.

{This reduces the cost of social engineering. Instead of having to travel abroad the elite can get brain washed at home itself and pay world standard fees for it! I would rather raise the standards of education in Indian utys and employ the foreign scholars at existing utys}

Sell Indian culture overseas: Global powers enhance their influence by exporting their popular culture to the world. The English and the French did it with literature; America has done it with film and television. India has a thriving English-language creative industry that is an untapped instrument of influence. The Indian government should devote more energy and taxpayer money to selling Indian culture overseas, from Bollywood to high literature. The Chinese are nowhere in this regard, having hardly encouraged artistic expression, much less in English. India has a real opportunity to step forward and define new global artistic motifs for Asia’s Century.

{Already being done but might not be on writers radar.}

Find India’s own Teddy Roosevelt: A century ago, America had a thoroughly modern, young President unafraid to stake a claim to global power status. TR mediated an end to the Russo-Japanese War, dug the Panama Canal and showed off the US navy on a world tour. India needs its own TR for the 21st century. He or she will change the way the world sees India and the way India sees itself.

{What about George Bush! India wants to be its own and not anyone's mirror. Anyway relying on one person sets up single point of failure. TR was in a different world.}


India’s restraint in the face of provocations over the past decade has earned it the world’s respect and paid economic dividends. To become a world power, India will have to continue to build its economic and military strength, flex its muscles and—where necessary—shed its blood. Nations become great powers by winning wars. There is no other way.

{Such great powers lasted only for a few centuries at the maximum and in the end all got hollowed out shells: Ancient Egypt, Ancient Greece Rome, Caliphates, Mughals, British. India is Empire of the mind. Indian footprints are all over Asia from Iraq to Beijing even now.}

The author is a former US diplomat

What he says is good for nascent US type of power. And besides its ridiculous for a former US diplomat to prescribe what India should do. Isn't it gratuitous advice?

[brihaspati]

India’s restraint in the face of provocations over the past decade has earned it the world’s respect and paid economic dividends. To become a world power, India will have to continue to build its economic and military strength, flex its muscles and—where necessary—shed its blood. Nations become great powers by winning wars. There is no other way.

{Such great powers lasted only for a few centuries at the maximum and in the end all got hollowed out shells: Ancient Egypt, Ancient Greece Rome, Caliphates, Mughals, British. India is Empire of the mind. Indian footprints are all over Asia from Iraq to Beijing even now.}

A very poignant clash of two world views that sums up why Indian foreign policy is always dragged into two opposite directions. The American diplomat is generalizing the American experience of the previous two centuries. The commentator on his article is generalizing from impressions or interpretations of a whitewashed history reconstructed for specific political purposes.India fits neither of these two world views exactly.

India's empire of the mind does not exist in reality - not in the sense of the essential principles of Indian philosophy and culture dominating or dictating or controlling cultures/ideologies around its neighbourhood. If there is any remnant influence, it is very difficult now to actually specifically rule out military/political expansionist influence in the historical period behind such influences.

On the other hand what the Anerican is saying, is not trash either. He is speaking based on a historical experience that has actually paid dividends and successfully expanded American influence and domination. He is focusing on concrete, short term tactical elements that have proved effective in a certain context. Just because they are based on American experience does not mean that we have to trash it in its entirety. We should neither accept it without thinking, nor should we reject it without actually exploring whether those tactics are applicable with or without modifications in the case of India.

India's empire of the mind does not help it in neutralizing other "empires of the mind" such as "Islamism" or "Maoism". Indias empire of the mind does not stop continuous generations spanning terrorist initiatives from Pakistan, or from elements in BD, or terrorist movements inspired by Maoism. On the other hand this "empire of the mind" is tantalizingly close to the false self-lulling - that things will set themselves right all by themselves. That we do not really have to get into the harsh and dirty business of actually producing a society that produces TR's, that sheds blood where necessary, that does not hesitate to use policing actions in its neighbourhood as and when necessary.

Philosophy and cultivation of the mind was not really divorced from concrete action to protect and expand Indian influence in Bharatyia tradition. This separation is a recent reconstruction and gives a false perpective of history and why and how India or whatever remained of it - actually survived. It fought in the physical realm tooth and nail, and not in any virtual "empire of the mind".

[brihaspati]

The Sri Lankan arena will probably become another extension of the new Cold War being played out by the loose grouping (not necessarily a solid bloc) of China, Russia, Iran on one side and USA+UK on the other side. The Chinese side scored with the removal of LTTE temporarily as an effective military force. The west lost a possible "ally" (could also have had tactical religious colourings) in VP and his core. But now this cold War extends into the SL elite itself. Here "allies" fighting together against the LTTE may now find themselves on opposite sides. The "General" vs "President" looks like another proxy conflict. The LTTE may even resurrect itself in another form with outside help. SL is too important a "port" to give up by either side. Should India join the fun - propping up each side in turn?

[brihaspati]

Continuing on about my previous post on projections in AFPAK, here is the beginning of supporting noises coming out of the US admin: http://www.nytimes.com/2010/02/02/us/po ... it.html?em.

Or, as Mr. Obama’s chief economic adviser, Lawrence H. Summers, used to ask before he entered government a year ago, “How long can the world’s biggest borrower remain the world’s biggest power?”

The Chinese leadership, which is lending much of the money to finance the American government’s spending, and which asked pointed questions about Mr. Obama’s budget when members visited Washington last summer, says it thinks the long-term answer to Mr. Summers’s question is self-evident. The Europeans will also tell you that this is a big worry about the next decade.

Mr. Obama himself hinted at his own concern when he announced in early December that he planned to send 30,000 American troops to Afghanistan, but insisted that the United States could not afford to stay for long.

“Our prosperity provides a foundation for our power,” he told cadets at West Point. “It pays for our military. It underwrites our diplomacy. It taps the potential of our people, and allows investment in new industry.”

And then he explained why even a “war of necessity,” as he called Afghanistan last summer, could not last for long.

“That’s why our troop commitment in Afghanistan cannot be open-ended,” he said then, “because the nation that I’m most interested in building is our own.”

[Jarita]

Apologize for putting this here as well but pleeeeaaaase watch this video. It is a microcosm of what is happening to our land and health. Strategic future of India is dep. on these decisions.
This video is abt Monsanto which is a symptom of what the food conglomerates are doing worldwide. They would put East India Company to shame. Please watch video because Monsanto has made huge inroads into India.

http://freedocumentaries.org/theatre.php?filmID=300

[Atri]

'India to be net provider of security in Indian Ocean, beyond'

WASHINGTON: Taking note of India's "growing influence" in global affairs, the US has said the country will be a net provider of security in the Indian Ocean and beyond with the growth of its military capabilities.
"The distribution of global political, economic and military power is shifting and becoming more diffuse. The rise of China, the world's most populous country, and India, the world's largest democracy, will continue to reshape the international system," said the Quadrennial Defence Review (QDR) report released by US Defence Secretary Robert Gates. ........

This particular news intrigued me quite a bit.

Whilst unkil's actions vis-a-vis TSP and Indo-Afghan relations haven't changed much, there is growing acceptance of India's dominance in IOR.

Is this the power-sharing equation, we might be entering in? The land-trade routes and oil-pipelines in CAR to be controlled by China and Sea-routes in IOR to be controlled by India. A strategy to prevent both from pursuing control over both CAR and IOR simultaneously by India.

[Pranav]

Apologize for putting this here as well but pleeeeaaaase watch this video. It is a microcosm of what is happening to our land and health. Strategic future of India is dep. on these decisions.
This video is abt Monsanto which is a symptom of what the food conglomerates are doing worldwide. They would put East India Company to shame. Please watch video because Monsanto has made huge inroads into India.

http://freedocumentaries.org/theatre.php?filmID=300

Jarita, you should check out Vandana Shiva - she's doing great work with respect to resisting frankenfoods, promoting organic etc. Ramdev Baba is also doing a good job. One of Ramdev Baba's most exciting plans is to establish a network of retail outlets all over the country which will supply organic produce.

[Jarita]

^^^ Problem is Indias seed bank is rapidly disappearing. In cotton farmers can't even get traditional seeds anymore.
The Pawars & MMS's of India are leading to a food dependent situation with their actions in agriculture. Add to that the barren land syndrome that these GMOs lead to. Our fertile land is being leeched.
No different from the indigo farming in bengal (even that was on a smaller scale)
And food is the most fundamental driver of sovereignity. We need to curtail population and be food independent.

[svinayak]

'India to be net provider of security in Indian Ocean, beyond'

WASHINGTON: Taking note of India's "growing influence" in global affairs, the US has said the country will be a net provider of security in the Indian Ocean and beyond with the growth of its military capabilities.

This particular news intrigued me quite a bit.

Whilst unkil's actions vis-a-vis TSP and Indo-Afghan relations haven't changed much, there is growing acceptance of India's dominance in IOR.

Is this the power-sharing equation, we might be entering in? The land-trade routes and oil-pipelines in CAR to be controlled by China and Sea-routes in IOR to be controlled by India. A strategy to prevent both from pursuing control over both CAR and IOR simultaneously by India.

This news is very important.
US wants to drive the outcome of the AfpAk but will not take the entire security of the region within its ownership.

How the power equation in IOR will result is not going to be questioned by US but they want their outcome in the AfpAk area.

It is Indian political leadership, military leadership to figure out ways to make sure India's desired outcome in AfPak area is accepted by the US establishment.

[ramana]

Jarita, There is already a thread on GMO that you started. please dont keep posting GMO related matter in every thread. its not like people dont read the GMO thread. They do. So please cooperate.

Thanks, ramana

[Jarita]

^^^ OK, will do . Problem is this is not just a GMO issue. It is an issue related to Indias sovereignity. GMO seeds is a small part of the problem. Bigger problem is the fact that we will lose our food independance. Hence wanted to discuss on this thread. Rampant privitization of seed banks and agriculture is a danger to our country.

I rest my case

[Jarita]

On that note, what is EU team doing in Kandhamal??
Does not seem like India is still independent

[brihaspati]

Acharya wrote
This news is very important.
US wants to drive the outcome of the AfpAk but will not take the entire security of the region within its ownership.

How the power equation in IOR will result is not going to be questioned by US but they want their outcome in the AfpAk area.

It is Indian political leadership, military leadership to figure out ways to make sure India's desired outcome in AfPak area is accepted by the US establishment.

Or it is a way of syaing that India should aspire only to control the IOR, but not look at what is happening in TSP, AFG, CAR, Tibet. Even in the supposed "mansabdari of IOR jagir", the really fertile corners like the Persian Gulf/Iran/ KSA/Iraq - where the oil-juice lies - is out of bounds for India. India should spend its resources and its blood to set right the life-style of areas like Myanmar or SL - where however the Anglo-Saxon has played and perhaps will continue to play ball. India will police IOR and regulate politics and military situation in the IOR rim, without any penetration allowed into the Persian Gulf, no penetration allowed into the island and coastal bases like Diego Garcia and others.

Yes India can play the game and take up the role of "peacekeeper" and "regulator of wealth flow" over the IOR - but that means India should not be obstructed in controlling the Persian Gulf, and at the minimum a share and presence in all the military and naval bases currently occupied in the IOR by USA or UK.

Moreobver a key to controlling western IOR is the neutralization of hostilities from regimes that control the three crucial points of Persian Gulf, TSP and SL. Which means serious political a nd military rearrangement of forces in all three in favour of India.