COLD START /Indian dilemma?

[captainjohann]

Pakistani military has realized that in case of any future India – Pakistan war, the possibility of either side achieving a clear-cut victory or suffering an abject or total defeat is no more a possibility under the current NUCLEARIZED circumstances. While a clear-cut, decisive or total victory is not conceivable for Pakistan because of the vast differential in conventional military capability between India and Pakistan, the availability of a viable and credible nuclear capability with Pakistan precludes the spectre of an abject Pakistani defeat and thus, a corresponding total victory for India.
So the Pakistani military thought of a strategy of sub-limited confrontations or even limited indirect conflicts but ensuring that these are not permitted to escalate to a stage where either of the sides to the conflict is forced to contemplate the employment of nuclear or other weapons of mass destruction.
Kargil is a test case of this strategy.While their hyped-up domestic public opinion(created by media) might go along with their decision to wage a war, the leaders would be required to show some achievement for it when it is all over. In fact, the very survival of the political structure that took the country to war in the first place would depend to quite an extent on the outcome of the war.
So TERMINATE THE WAR IN FAVOURABLE NOTE BEFORE UN VOTE is the MANTRA.

Kargil gave General Musharaff the following advantages :
1.The perception of failure was put on the elected civilian leadership Nawaz and he was ousted from power.
2.Then Indian leadership legitimized Military dictatorship of Gen Musharaff by inviting him to Agra under again American influence.

The Pakistan Military was very satisfied by terminating a war against more powerful India with a favorable stalemate. So Kargil in a sense is a favourable outcome militarily for Pakistan with so called irregulars occupying territory across LOC in Indian held Kashmir. But it also proved one thing to Pakistan Military leadership that Indian POLITICAL LEADERSHIP WILL NOT DO ANYTHING WITHOUT OK FROM USA which includes LAUNCHING OF NUKES or even conventional war. So politically also it is gain for their think tanks. Pakistan military knows now that it will have sufficient warning before Nuke option or conventional strike is exercised by India. But its first option and keeping it almost always ready to launch is not only the key to its survival as state but also making the very launching of conventional military strike by India into a question mark for its planners.
The most obvious manifestation of this accepted Indian weakness is the fact that Pakistan, unlike India, has reserved the right of 'first use' of nuclear weapons. Pakistan’s leadership are fully aware that being militarily weaker in the conventional realm, they are far more likely than India to reach their nuclear threshold earlier and as such cannot under any circumstances subscribe to the option of ‘no first use’ as India has stated in her draft nuclear doctrine. Although Pakistan also espouses the desire of possessing a triad-based nuclear force, it currently just like India has only the potential of using either manned aircraft or surface-to-surface ballistic missiles for delivering nuclear warheads, with the third leg of the triad still being developed. It is precisely this realization that Pakistan would be most probably be the first one to resort to employing nuclear weapons using her two-dimensional nuclear potential that has motivated India’s quest for anti-ballistic missile systems such as the Russian Su-300 / Israeli Arrow-212 and the Phalcon AEW13 that she is desirous of inducting as soon as possible. While the former would serve to provide an element of defense against Pakistan’s ballistic nuclear-tipped SSMs, the latter would pose a strong defense against any efforts of the Pakistan Air Force to deliver nuclear weapons, by interdicting these aircrafts in air itself.These very purchases also confirms to Pakistan that India will not strike first with Nukes.
Moreover in my reckoning, a nuclear threshold does not really apply to India(when Pakistan is the adversary) since Pakistan does not currently possess the conventional potential to force India’s reaching a point where she is forced to employ her nuclear weapons.Of course when China or any other P5 become an adversary then the Nuclear threshold can be rapidly reached.From the Pakistani perspective, nuclear weapons are not only meant to deter the onset of a war but rather these are weapons are also required for deterring and possibly averting an abject defeat. In other words India cannot reach that nuke thresehold even when the Indian Army is winning!!!
Deterrence in South Asian environment has to be viewed as a two-tiered concept, especially from Pakistan’s perspective. The massive and almost decisive conventional asymmetry that confronts Pakistan could lead it to view its deterrence policy according to the following requirements.
First and foremost, the purpose of Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal is to preclude the possibility of India embarking on any military adventure against it, even if it is limited to a purely conventional conflict. This is the traditional form of deterrence that this world has witnessed earlier also. By fielding a credible nuclear force, Pakistan wants to deter the initiation of any military operations by India on the basis of her established nuclear capability that is liable to be employed if India not does abstain from embarking on military operations against it. From this perspective, Pakistan’s nuclear deterrence could be classified as an instrument for deterring conventional war. Pakistan's military thinking could be summed up by saying that she would project her nuclear arsenal to convince India of the futility of embarking on a full fledged conventional war against her by insinuating that the availability of nuclear weapons with Pakistan obviates the possibility of the Indian military achieving any significant objectives during a conventional limited war.
The second tier of Pakistan’s deterrence will come into play once hostilities have broken out between the two countries and the war is not going well for Pakistan. In this situation, with its back to the wall, Pakistan could be forced to employ the nuclear weapons as a weapon of last resort to forestall an imminent scenario of abject defeat. The objective here would be for Pakistan to threaten India with its use of the nuclear weapons unless that war is brought to an abrupt and complete stop. This would be a really desperate situation from the Pakistani viewpoint that could well justify the employment of nuclear weapons against India. In order to keep the Indians guessing, it can be expected that Pakistan would intentionally maintain an element of ambiguity about her 'nuclear threshold' while simultaneously ensuring that it is taken into consideration in the preparation of its war plans by India.
Conversely, India’s nuclear deterrence, unlike Pakistan’s, is not aimed at preventing conventional war. Rather, it is designed to avert the Pakistani usage of the nuclear weapons. This indicates that while Pakistan’s nuclear wherewithal is aimed at preventing a conventional war, India’s is designed to prevent a nuclear exchange. This is a significant difference between the deterrence philosophies of the two South Asian nations that must be taken into account. From this it also flows that while Pakistan’s nuclear prowess has more of a 'first use' connotation, India’s nuclear arsenal is designed more as a second strike or retaliatory option and the draft Indian nuclear doctrine more than amply elucidates these two aspects. The fundamental purpose of Indian nuclear weapons is to deter the use and threat of use of nuclear weapons by any State or entity against India and its forces. In this policy of ‘retaliation only’, the survivability of Indian arsenal is critical.Has India ensured it?This stark difference between the nuclear philosophies of India and Pakistan highlights the point that while Pakistan’s nuclear potential is contributing to the maintenance of conventional stability in South Asia, that of India is essentially instrumental in the maintenance of nuclear stability in the region. While the former is aimed at preventing the break-out of a conventional war, the latter serves to dissuade both the countries from going nuclear. This difference in the nuclear philosophies of India and Pakistan would figure very prominently in any future military conflict in South Asia unless India changes its philosophy due to the games Permanent five is playing in Indian subcontinent and Afghanistan.

If a train of events is set in motion by India opting to commence a limited intensity campaign disregarding the threat of a Pakistani first use of her nuclear weapons possibly on the premise that the limited end-objectives of this campaign would not warrant crossing of Pakistan’s nuclear threshold. The COLDSTART theory of 8 independent action Brigades comes out of this premise.It is quite possible that India's hand could be forced into using them by an increased involvement of Pakistan in the Kashmir or an attack like that of Mumbai(which was meant to deny its own involvement) Planning for this phase of operations has to be very carefully articulated keeping mind the perceived nuclear threshold of Pakistan and would have to be integrated with a massive media campaign aimed at convincing not only the domestic populace but also the entire global community that India’s hand was forced by the prevailing situation and the adoption of a military option being warranted, India was justified in adopting this extreme course of action. India would also have to ensure that the objectives stipulated by it for the military offensive are so limited in nature and magnitude that these preclude any overstepping of Pakistan’s nuclear threshold.
Having been unable to deter India from embarking on a conventional conflict, Pakistan must be following a two-pronged strategy – a diplomatic offensive aimed at heightening the concern of the international community simultaneously with the adoption of a higher state of readiness of its nuclear forces. The second step will signify Pakistan’s resolve not only to India but also to the other interested parties of the world like USA, UK and China.
that India’s persistence to violate Pakistan’s nuclear threshold will involve a nuclear strike by Pakistan. If India does not get dissuaded by the danger and possibility of a Pakistani nuclear first strike and continues the conventional conflict, this might put Pakistan in a corner with no option but to go nuclear. It is this type of argument which the west is lapping it up and Pakistan laughing all the way.
Pakistan by keeping its nuclear decision making option from its elected political leadership has kept the prying eyes of USA from deciding the security of state of Pakistan unlike Indians. President Zardari is not even figure- head of their Nuclear command authority .The figure-head is PM Gillani, a man who made Indian PM sign that famous Shram-sheikh agreement.
Perhaps the most widely quoted statement of a Pakistani official on the issue of nuclear thresholds surfaced after an interview that Lt. Gen. Kidwai, the Director General of the Strategic Plans Division gave to a group of Italian social scientists. In this statement, General Kidwai was quoted as having said, It is well known that Pakistan does not have a "No First Use Policy". Pakistani nuclear weapons will be used, according to Gen. Kidwai, only “if the very existence of Pakistan as a state is at stake”. This has been detailed by Gen. Kidwai as follows:
a. India attacks Pakistan and conquers a large part of its territory (space threshold)
b. India destroys a large part either of its land or air forces (military threshold)
c. India proceeds to the economic strangling of Pakistan (economic strangling)
d. India pushes Pakistan into political destabilization or creates a large scale internal subversion in Pakistan (domestic destabilization)
He also made it very clear that his weapons are directed against INDIA only.
Our reaction to Mumbai attacks has convinced Pakistan that
1.Cold start of the 8 independent brigades have no autonomy to Military brass.
2.The Indian political leadership has no S.O.P for a situation like that of Mumbai in which
our Military leadership is given autonomy to retaliate quickly without waiting for political permission in any place of its choosing in J&K OR even across international border.The recent Poonch encounter must have convinced Pakistanis of this perception.
1. UK suddenly linking the solution of Kashmir problem as the root of all Jihadi problems between India and Pakistan and also Afghan stabilization .
2.The new US ambassador to UN is talking about Kashmir as an international problem along with Palestine?
3.The complete elimination of India in AFPAK while india BUILDS ROADS FOR NATO with Indian money and CHINA BUYS COPPER MINE FOR $2.8 BILLION.
4.The recent Haqqani media blitz in USA could NOT be carried out without wink from Obama security team.
Indian leadership has by now known
1. That UK and USA are both coordinating their strategy to denuclearise not only Pakistan but also India.
2.Their national interest is more attuned to getting a fig leaf of a deal with TALIBAN(mullah Omar) in
Afghanistan with power sharing.They just want to protect the illegal drug trade being carried with connivance
of ISI and some elements of Afghan government who are beholden to SAUDIES.
3.Indian largese to Afghanistan in the guise of infrastructure is not helping in any way Indian national interest while weakening our real friends the northern alliance and Iran
.The following statement by General Kidwai of SPD on 13th january 2009 should also be taken with
lot of care by India.


"What Kidwai is very keen to do is reassure the international community that as things sort of get worse and worse in Pakistan in terms of terrorism and Taliban and all the rest of it; still the Pakistan military can be trusted to keep these weapons safe and secure," said Shaun Gregory, director of the University of Bradford's Pakistan Security Research Unit.

Kidwai has been trying simultaneously to dissuade India and the United States that they could somehow destroy or remove Pakistan's nuclear weapons in a time of crisis, according to another expert.

"The first point would be, if you think you can target our weapons, India, they're secure, forget it. If you think you can find out where our weapons are, the United States, they're secure, forget it -- and we're not going to give you that kind of access, no matter how many hundreds of millions of dollars you give us. These are two very important messages that any patriotic Pakistani logically would want to emphasize," said Henry Sokolski of the Nonproliferation Education Policy Center.

"They're very concerned about the possibility that there will be a commando attack against their infrastructure, if we knew enough, in a crisis, and that at the end of the day they would end up with no (nuclear) weapons. And that's their worst fear," agreed Ken Luongo of the Partnership for Global Security.

Luongo said Kidwai's public relations efforts were suspect because Pakistan has not allowed the United States or others to see the nation's security measures firsthand.

"It's all coming out of the SPD officials, and there hasn't been any way to independently verify what exactly it is that they've done, or how they've instituted the (security) improvements, or how they're working. They won't let anybody close enough. This is all being done on kind of an arm's length basis," he said .




Pakistan army is not a fool that they will expose their nukes to aerial attacks by Indians or Israelis even in case of conventional war between both of us unless we reach their nuclear thresehold fairly quickly.But they are capable of bringing in surprises.The size of Individual nukes is the key and whether they have miniaturized enough to fit in torpedoes of submarines or missiles.Whether missiles could be neutralized before their launch is the key.The Indian mujaheddin,naxalites could be used by Pakistan to sabotage Indian launch pads of our missiles and airbases.So we must prepare our self for this eventuality and then only think of launching a conventional strike.Also SWAT and Wazirstan and Saudi arabia are the places the Pakistan bomb could be hidden by UMMA Tameer-nau.

1.India must change its strategy into Nuke first option with regard to Pakistan and announce its openly.

2.Talk with Pakistani security establishment especially the Army Chief,foreign Ministry, etc and address their security concerns instead of going through western interlocutors.They want deactivation of our forward airbases and also movement back of Indian Army.They may even ask for parity and siachen withdrawal. SIACHEN should be part of overall Kashmir settlement and no piece meal agreement on any issue.Our media should be told to IGNORE everything about Pakistan especially the escapades of their cricketers.


2. Never allow Richard Holbrook to visit India and Pakistan together.

3.Give Bangladesh all credit for a successful transition to democracy and also have frequent interactions with CITIZENS of that country.

4.Cut down on aid to Afghanistan and increase it to Bangladesh.


5.Pay more attention to Chinese military and prepare for deterrence against that neighbour.Our Missile and Airforce deployment against Chinese should be credible to the Chinese like SUKHOIS, BRAHMOS etc.



captainjohann

[Aditya_V]

COld Start requires Poltical Will and then suprise. With our Media, Top Beuracrats and Elite. The ANswer is a Big No. a cold start will never have political will, since the Aman ki Tamasha group will ensure thier full backing to the Pakis.

[harbans]

The Paki nuclear doctrine is completely self contradictory.

1) On one hand they say that if India gives up nukes they too will give it up.

2) On the other hand they should they need Nukes to offset India's conventional weapons superiority.

You can see the contradiction.

Fact is they need Nuclear weapons for the following:

1. The 1000 cut policy: Bleed India, divide India, Communalize India using terrorism as a state/ nonstate actor policy. WHen India seethes and tries something punishing, blackmail with nuclear weapons.

The above is the sum all of the Paki 'game'.

IB4TL

[Rupesh]

cold start sounds good on paper. i seriously doubt its feasibility based on current status of equipments. if we had 400+ smerch, 600+ pinaka, 1600+ denel G6 and 300-400 attack helios with close co-ordination with Army and Af, it could be possible. Until then forget about it.

[Chinmayanand]

Cold Start is credible if implemented.

[Gagan]

I will have to agree with Rupesh on this one.

Indian military modernization still does not have the muscle in a few important vital fields to make full use of the cold start doctrine.

Given that pakistan has nuclear weapons, there was no other option for India to seek to fight a quick and brisk war and severely damage the forward deployed formations of the pakistani army.

India needs improvements in the Artillery (both tube and rocket), LACM fields specifically and upgradation of the night fighting abilities of the tank squadrons.

(Unless I am mistaken about Gen Kapoor's statement - none of the tanks are actually completely blind at night. I think he is referring to the need to modernize the night vision capabilities of the tank fleet - specifically the T-72s, and importing the Night fighting kits for both the 72s and the 90 - that piecemeal deal that MoD has worked out with Russia.)

[Airavat]

The Pakistan Military was very satisfied by terminating a war against more powerful India with a favorable stalemate. So Kargil in a sense is a favourable outcome militarily for Pakistan with so called irregulars occupying territory across LOC in Indian held Kashmir.

What is "Indian held Kashmir"? The name of the state is J&K; the battles took place in the region known as Baltistan. The Kargil conflict revealed the strategic myopia and tactical blundering of the Pakistan army, which had fancy hopes that their thieve like incursions would be successful as the Indian response could somehow be modulated with the help of their masters.

No such luck! Unkil told them to eff-off and aunty refused to play ball. The rest was butchery followed by downhill skiing.

The complete elimination of India in AFPAK while india BUILDS ROADS FOR NATO with Indian money and CHINA BUYS COPPER MINE FOR $2.8 BILLION.
.......Indian largese to Afghanistan in the guise of infrastructure is not helping in any way Indian national interest while weakening our real friends the northern alliance and Iran

Indian investments in Afghanistan are for the Afghan people and for India's larger strategic vision, as A'stan will be the path to Central Asia for Indian goods and investments. India should steadfastly continue its multi-faceted efforts, including the investments in power projects like Kajakai and Khanabad, and build up A'stan as a strategic ally.

The following statement by General Kidwai of SPD on 13th january 2009 should also be taken with lot of care by India.

actual statement by: Shaun Gregory, director of the University of Bradford's Pakistan Security Research Unit.

...said Henry Sokolski of the Nonproliferation Education Policy Center.

....agreed Ken Luongo of the Partnership for Global Security.

Why all the quotes from non-proliferation ayatollahs??

Talk with Pakistani security establishment especially the Army Chief,foreign Ministry, etc and address their security concerns instead of going through western interlocutors.They want deactivation of our forward airbases and also movement back of Indian Army.

IB4TL there's nothing here about Cold Start as such but more weak-kneed advice from NPAs to address Baki "concerns" and to end investments in Afghanistan.

[shiv]

That is an excellent write up captainjohn. I have things to say but I am still reading. It would have been easier if you had broken your essay into paragraphs by using double spacing between paragraphs.

More later...

[shiv]

1.India must change its strategy into Nuke first option with regard to Pakistan and announce its openly.

2.Talk with Pakistani security establishment especially the Army Chief,foreign Ministry, etc and address their security concerns instead of going through western interlocutors.They want deactivation of our forward airbases and also movement back of Indian Army.They may even ask for parity and siachen withdrawal. SIACHEN should be part of overall Kashmir settlement and no piece meal agreement on any issue.Our media should be told to IGNORE everything about Pakistan especially the escapades of their cricketers.


2. Never allow Richard Holbrook to visit India and Pakistan together.

3.Give Bangladesh all credit for a successful transition to democracy and also have frequent interactions with CITIZENS of that country.

4.Cut down on aid to Afghanistan and increase it to Bangladesh.


5.Pay more attention to Chinese military and prepare for deterrence against that neighbour.Our Missile and Airforce deployment against Chinese should be credible to the Chinese like SUKHOIS, BRAHMOS etc.



captainjohann

Well written Captjohann. You have rightly surmised that the Paki position seeks to scare India into not fighting a conventional and you say Pakistan thinks that it has succeeded.

You may be right, but the question that remains will be whether you (and Pakistan's calculus as elucidated by you) will always be right. In general I disapprove of anthropomorphic rhetoric that claims that Pakistan is laughing all the way. It sets up a mood in the mind of the reader that would make him more receptive to the conclusions you want him to reach.

The idea that conventional war cannot be fought under Pakistan's nuclear umbrella was described before Kargil. The artcile is linked from BR and Gen Malik's response to that exists too on BR. Also the idea that conventional war cannot be fought under Pakistan's nuclear umbrella assumes rationality on India's part. It leaves no room for irrationality.

In Kargil, Pakistan's assumption of Indian rationality was that India would too scared to escalate. But India escalated locally, using air power. It was the Pakistani military that was then afraid to escalate further because they would then have to put their money where their mouths are rather than their musharrafs. They took the first opportunity to de-escalate.

The problem of Parakram was one of time. Pakistan had time to mobilize defences and see what India was doing. The idea that Pakistan keeps ready to fire nuclear weapons has never been mentioned in any public reference. For many reasons they too keep their weapons de-mated (as discussed earlier on BR). Mating of weapons and readying them will be seen as movements of missiles and in air bases. This will be a matter of days. India has to punish Pakistan and stop within those few days. That is the purpose of cold start.

Will it work? That is a question for astrologers. It will work provided its aims are realistic, which I believe they are. Is it having an effect on Pakistan? Oh yes it is and I did not realise that till a few days ago, when I realised that the Pakistani reluctance to move their forces from "The east to the west" is because they nwo know that they will not have the luxury of getting defensive formations ready depending on Indian moves.

If the Pakistan military were so confident of their nuclear ability they really should mate their weapons and keep them ready to fire - so that they can use their troops where unkil is paying them while they nuke the crap out of India on day 1 if they face an Indian attack. But they are not doing that. They are hedging their bets and hopig it will not come to that. Cold start is working alright.

[Gagan]

On Bangladesh I agree, more so on the look east in the immediate neighborhood - Bangladesh, Burma, indonesia, malaysia.

Cooperate, coopt, increase aid/business, force indian products into those markets, build nuclear reactors, ports, IT related businesses in those countries. Create dependence and broad based interaction with India.

[Gagan]

On Parakram, the pakistanis can now gloat about how India huffed and puffed and then did nothing.

They prefer not to be reminded of the fact that for one whole year, and more so in the initial few weeks they were browning their chuddies endlessly. To the extent that Mushy had to go live on air to do a public GUBO.

[rohitvats]

My two pence to the discussion (some of which I had posted earlier):

(1) Op Parakaram - It has been repeatedly pointed out that Indian Strike Corps (especially 21 Corps) could not mobilize on time and IA lost the window of opportunity to punish the Pakistan before they could mobilize their Holding and Strike Corps. True, but this needs to be seen in context. This argument holds good only for the initial phase of Op Parakaram during Dec 2001 and Jan 2002. India and Pakistan twice came close to war (and this is not from the India Today). During the Mid 2002 period, IA put in place an extremely bold plan which saw the deployment of all the three Armored Divisions in the Southern Punjab-Northern and Central Rajasthan Sector. It was master deception on part of IA which involved movement of an entire Armored Division from Northern Punjab-Southern J&K to south and is a story for another day. This led to serious scare in the PA and exposed the soft underbelly of Pakistan. It is this what brought Musharraf on PTV to give his famous peace talk. The reason I bring out this story is to show that IA was very much ready to fight an all out war in the nuclear overhang. IA could then also have calibrated its response to keep it below the so called thresholds of Pakistan and at the same time inflcit serious damages in terms of territory gain and destruction of its fighting potential.

The advent of CS and planned IBG are more from geo-political perspective. We need to understand that the Armored heavy Strike Corps will still follow the initial thrusts by the IBGs and build on initial gains.

(2) Cold Start Doctrine(CSD) and effect on PA - As I have pointed out earlier, PA has established Corps Reserves in two of its Holding Corps. These are 25th Mechanized Division with V Corps-Karachi and 26th Corps with XXXI Corps-Bahawalpur.These are the Armored Divisions in all but name and have been created so that PA does not need to draw its Strike Formations(Army Reserve North/Army Reserve South) to counter the thrusts of IBG.Also, they don't want the planned IBGs to gain an upper hand in first 72-96 hours of hostilities, which these formations are likely to do given their planned structure, and take away the 'favorable stalemate' plank of PA.The Corps Reserves in PA (they are amalgamation of existing assets-more so in case of V Corps) have been raised due to what happened in Op Parakaram and CSD.This is the surest example that PA is taking CSD seriously.The efficacy of these new formations (in terms of assets they hold) is another story and they do add more financial burden on the meagre resources at PA disposal.

[Nihat]

The Indian Armed Forces today promulgated three joint operational doctrines -- for Sub Conventional Operations, Electronic Warfare and Maritime Air Operations

Source - Livefist.


Now what exactly is meant by sub-conventional warfare and is it related to cold start

[Gagan]

Sub conventional warfare is a bit like Gandhiji's active yet peaceful resistance, more like Zor ka Jhatka Dheere se lage!

To me it means 24x7 ELINT / SIGINT on the enemy.

[niran]

this is a pencil
how do you know?
coz you were taught so. you know the fine points
and will be able to discern a good pencil from a dud pencil.

Now!
do you have the details of "Cold Start Doctrine"?
even if you have it, can you make the head or tail of it.
until then this dissing&cussing is superfluous IMVHO

[shiv]

Sorry - forgot to address these points after highlighting them earlier

1.India must change its strategy into Nuke first option with regard to Pakistan and announce its openly.

I don't think so. India's bluff wrt to first use will be called very very quickly and prove that India is unwilling to nuke Pakistan first. Also it leaves a huge door open for Pakiness where Pakis explode a nuke over their own territory, call it an Indian attack and nuke India.

2.Talk with Pakistani security establishment especially the Army Chief,foreign Ministry, etc and address their security concerns instead of going through western interlocutors.They want deactivation of our forward airbases and also movement back of Indian Army.They may even ask for parity and siachen withdrawal. SIACHEN should be part of overall Kashmir settlement and no piece meal agreement on any issue.Our media should be told to IGNORE everything about Pakistan especially the escapades of their cricketers.

Kashmir settlement? What Kashmir settlement - you mean return of PoK?

Talking to the army is fine, but the media are media and cannot be curtailed.

2. Never allow Richard Holbrook to visit India and Pakistan together.

This is physically impossible for any human. But if he flies to India first, then to Abu Dhabi for a 1 hour stop and Islamabad what are we going to do? Cold start?

3.Give Bangladesh all credit for a successful transition to democracy and also have frequent interactions with CITIZENS of that country.

What has this got to do with the topic you started

4.Cut down on aid to Afghanistan and increase it to Bangladesh.

Why not Myanmar? Or is this what you expect cold start to mean?

5.Pay more attention to Chinese military and prepare for deterrence against that neighbour.Our Missile and Airforce deployment against Chinese should be credible to the Chinese like SUKHOIS, BRAHMOS etc.

What has this got to do with the topic you started?

[RayC]

What are the issues being addressed?

Sorry if I have not got the drift.

[shiv]

What are the issues being addressed?

Sorry if I have not got the drift.

Indian NFU deters nuclear war, Pakistan FU deters conventional war. Therefore India should have FU doctrine, prevent Holbrooke from visiting Pakistan and India simlutaneously, help Bangladesh,settle Kashmir and scare China. Based on this input please say whether Cold Start works or not.

[Gagan]

India's NFU deters a war altogether by pakistan.

What India needs is a doctrine that'll deter pakistan from terrorism.

It would seem from the spine chilling rattle emnating from GHQ Pindi that the Cold Start has threatened them enough so that their freedom to indulge in terrorism is now constrained a bit.

The last thing the Pakistan Army wants is all out war. All out war nuclear or otherwise will lead to such and H&D loss for them that they will no longer be able to hold pakistan and suck it dry as they do now. It will also mean the begining of the end of pakistan as a single entity in full speed.

[negi]

Wait what has India deterred TSP from doing can we have a list ?

NFU is yet another of those NAM sham kind of high moral no fiber policies .

[Samay]

It could be , read. this

[shiv]

Wait what has India deterred TSP from doing can we have a list ?
.

• India has deterred TSP from allowing Hindus to live in Pakistan
  India has deterred TSP from concentrating in anything but India
  India has deterred TSP from spending less than 40% of its budget on defence
  India has deterred TSP from resting until India is brought down
  India has deterred TSP from freeing Sauth Asia from the caste system
  India has deterred TSP from eradicating poverty in Sauth Asia
  India has deterred TSP from planting a flag in the Red Fort
  India has deterred TSP from bringing justice to the people of Indian occupied Kushmeer
  India has deterred TSP from setting up an egalitarian social system in Sauth Asia
  India has deterred TSP from removing the foul odors of Hindus from Sauth asia
  India has deterred TSP from delivering freedom to the Dalits and untouchables
  India has deterred TSP from eradicating from Brahmins and Banias
  India has deterred TSP from stopping the worship of animals like rats and animal dung in Sauth Asia
  India has deterred TSP from controlling all parts of Sauth Asia that rightfully belong to Paa'staaan

India has a lot to answer for. grrrr

[RayC]

What are the issues being addressed?

Sorry if I have not got the drift.

Indian NFU deters nuclear war, Pakistan FU deters conventional war. Therefore India should have FU doctrine, prevent Holbrooke from visiting Pakistan and India simlutaneously, help Bangladesh,settle Kashmir and scare China. Based on this input please say whether Cold Start works or not.

As far as I understand (and I will be frank I am not aware of the Doctrine in details as some apparently indicate that they know ), the issue is simple.

The Cold Start Doctrine is basically aimed for two issues:

1. It irons out the infirmities of our long drawn mobilisation that prevent strategic surprise and initiative.

2. Capture adequate territory for favourable negotiation after the war, without causing Pakistan to feel that their nuclear threshold has been crossed.

Holbrooke or Babbling Brook, is not of concern. Nor it has anything to do with Bangladesh! Or that is my understanding!

[Philip]

There is a famous saying that "revenge like a dish is best eaten cold".This gives one a clue as to how a "Cold Start" doctrine can win.It first must not be used in the heat of the moment,that is in the immediate aftermath of another terror outrage.We well know that the Paki militayr establishment orchestrates the teror strikes using its catspaws the Islamist ungodly species to do its dirty work.Therefore,the Paki military in the days beforethe attacks,will strengthen its defences ready to forestall any Indian overt counter.We will then find in a "Cold Start" spat,in all likelihood stiff resistance from the Pakis and we may not be able to accomplish all our objectives,allowing Paki to claim a hollow victory as Gen.Bandicoot tried to do after his humiliating retreat at Kargil.

We should act as follows:

1.Identify the chief plotters and arrange for their permanent removal from the scene as the Israelis have been doing with those who wage terror against the Israeli state.

2.Plan for the destruction of the Paki armed forces,its key assets,in a surprise attack that like the CW doctrine,that can be delivered within hours without mobilisation.These attacks should be carried out when Pak is lulled into somnolence,or otherwise occupied-as it is now,in its family spat with its own version of the Taliban.There is little need to capture territory (other thsn J&K),instead,the Paki military should be grievously wounded.Karachi and Gawadar must be made inoperational ports,the mining of the approaches to all Paki ports should be done,while destroying as much of its naval assets as posisble.Similarly,destroying key paki military-industrial complexes ,like its aircraft engineering establishments,missile production facilities,tank and AV factories,all key non-nuclear facilities,key infrastructure like vital briidges,the Karakorum Highway,etc.,etc.,you get the picture.Pak's capability to wage war must be severely dented.

3.In J&K alone,any territory that we can pick up easily should be done.The attacks on terror establishments and individuals in POK must be conducted.There should also be no handing over any captured territory.

4.Equally inportant is winning the propaganda war and a sustained diplomatic offensive.Diplomatic pressure upon Pak shoiuld be unrlenting and India should give it no quarter whatsoever.

This will all require enormous efforts at improving our intel capabilities,SIGINT,ELINT and HUMINT,the combination of which will give us real-time intel allowing our attack to be a total surprise one.We will have to have a number of military satellites in service and keep some key elements o our armed forces in a virtual perpetual state of readiness

[Lalmohan]

unfortunately a cold start option during a lull is not going to work well in terms of our psyche. we have no putins who are willing to teach georgia a lesson and damn the consequences

i think that the time has come to stop fooling around and go for the liquidation of terrorist leaders and their military counter parts in pakistan, if we don't have the resources, lets pay the shias and baluchis to do it

its for the greater good