since when is wiki a "source" ?
btw, I couldn't locate any 30/year comment in the wiki page. if you could post it for us it will be nice. I couldn't see a India-defence link in your reply as well ?
However , stabilisation of production run in an assembly line is a bit more complicated than churning out a number during one given time period..given Avadi's track record with something that it has vastly more expericen with and a job that is vastly less complicated, I would be sceptical on taking a reply (that too in semantics of "very close to being" etc) to a blog question as gospel...
again, all that analysis and extrapolation is not necessary.
it's an article by a reputed def journalist in his personal blog. that is now not acceptable but apparently wiki is.
what semantics is there ? again, the hint-hint-nudge-nudge is unnecessary. arjun production started sometime in 2007 after AUCRT, as mentioned by all and sundry. by the time he wrote that report(July 2008) 70 had been produced. that too has been confirmed by other reports at the time IIRC. even if we assume that production started from 1st Jan 2007 that makes it 44 tanks/year at a minimum.
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The objective is to mobilise a large volume of firepower quickly, much before the international community can intervene, and execute a short sharp operation..
please, you are avoiding the questions, (much like the T-90 would in a real battle !)
what would this "short sharp operation" entail ? would it involve taking on real enemy tanks and infantry or is that too no longer a part of cold start ? your definition of cold start starts to sound like a board game to me.
I didnt say that the Arjun is "unsuitable" for a short exchange..and I didnt say that it is driving T90 procurement either..Just that an upgraded T72/T90 is good enough in these scenarios
err, good enough to do what exactly ? run to the pakistan border intact and come back ?
for it is not good enough to take on a combination of similar tanks + massive amounts of modern and legacy infantry held anti-tank weapons.
let's not forget that in a cold start, IA will be the attacking force and its armoured forces will be expected to smash PA's formations on the border. PA on the other hand will have all the advantages of a defending force. is the T-72/90 good enough to accomplish this role ? really ?
In a short exchange, you are less concerned, as the party with far larger numbers and resources, with the extent of losses that you need to suffer
actually in a short conflict the advantages of a numerical superiority will not be felt. it will take a longer conflict for India to fully use it's numerical depth to advantage.
the key motive is to quickly and easily mobilise large volume of firepower, execute the immediate battle objectives before the conflict is inevitably stopped
firepower in this case usually refers to arty, which is a different issue.
the problem with this premise is that it assumes that an inferior tank will be able to win battles against strong odds. what are the chances of that ? a large number of inferior systems might win a war, to win a battle is much more difficult.
Importantly that does not include capturing or holding real estate
but it does include destruction of enemy forces right ? and doing a good job of it ?
won't that be a coin toss with the T-90 ?
therefore a tank that is easy on the current logistics,
{but not good enough on the battlefield} does not require extensive "redoctrining"
{neither does the T-55 so why don't we continue with it ? it is cheaper as well. }, can be inducted quickly in large quantities (without Avadi!)
{only in fantasy because the parliament will always run behind the army to make the things in-house} is good enough
{for creating paper strength}, even if the Arjun is "better" from a "feature to feature" perspective
{and as a overall fighting machine}..