Indian Economy: News and Discussion (Jan 1 2010)

paramu · Post by **paramu** » 26 May 2010 07:17

Standard Chartered's Indian share offering opens

Question: Why does StanChart issue IDR? Does that help it overcome foreign bank tag?
Was there any regulation that mandated these compnies to raise capital in India?

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 28 May 2010 08:18

Ramana, Paramu.. Bull's eye
http://seekingalpha.com/article/207310- ... eyes-india
Big Pharma Eyes India

On May 21, Abbott Laboratories (ABT) announced that it would purchase Piramal Healthcare, a branded generics company based in India, for $3.72 billion. The deal will give Abbott a 7 percent market share in India. Abbott expects pharmaceutical sales in India, which are projected to reach $8 billion this year, to more than double by 2015. The company joins Daiichi Sankyo (DSKYY.PK), which owns a majority stake in India-based Ranbaxy Laboratories (RBXLF.PK); and GlaxoSmithKline (GSK), which purchased the pipeline of Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories (RDY), on the list of major pharmaceutical companies looking to expand their reach in India. With numerous blockbuster drugs facing imminent patent expiration, slowing growth, and U.S. healthcare reform policies that would promote generic drugs, pharmaceutical companies are turning to emerging markets such as India, China, and Russia as the next big revenue generators. Healthcare spending in emerging markets, currently about $200 billion per year, is expected to increase rapidly. Pharmaceutical companies believe that emerging markets will account for 30 to 40 percent of sales in the next decade, says one expert quoted in the AP article. Emerging-market sales currently account for about 20 percent of Abbott’s revenue.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 28 May 2010 09:13

Both the 2009-10 Q4 and full year official GDP data are due on Monday, May 31. Bloomberg estimates 8.6% growth in Q4:
India Growth May Top 8% as Interest Rates Stay `Out of Line' With Recovery

Gross domestic product rose 8.6 percent in the three months ended March 31 from a year earlier, the most since the December quarter of 2007, according to the median of 19 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey. The Central Statistical Organisation is due to announce the data on May 31 at 11 a.m. in New Delhi.

India and China, the world’s fastest-growing major economies, face the threat of the debt crisis cutting demand in the European Union, the market accounting for a fifth of their exports. India’s central bank said last week that it will raise rates only cautiously even though they are “out of line” with inflation, running close to 10 percent.

“The Reserve Bank of India is likely to follow a measured approach as global factors contaminate the issues relating to monetary policy,” said Sailesh K. Jha, Singapore-based managing director for fixed-income strategy and sales at Jefferies & Co., a New York-based brokerage. “Inflation may further broaden.”

India’s benchmark Sensitive Index has declined about 5 percent since April 30 on concern the debt crisis may weaken the global economy. The yield on the 10-year government bond fell 54 basis points to 7.52 percent during the period as the central bank signaled a slower pace of rate-increases.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 28 May 2010 11:36

Project implementation delays cost GoI Rs.55175 crore ($12 billion)

The United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government poured down the drain Rs 55,175 crore belonging to the Indian taxpayer between 2004 and 2010 because it failed to deliver 495 projects on time.

Out of the 601 projects undertaken between 2004-05 and 2009-10, the government delivered just 54 either on time or ahead of schedule.

“As on December 2009, out of 950 central sector projects costing more than Rs 20 crore or above under implementation, 495 are delayed,” Statistics and Programme Implementation Minister Sriprakash Jaiswal recently said in Parliament.

According to the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI), factors like “slow progress, fund constraints, land acquisition problems, environmental clearances, delay in supply of equipment and law and order problem” have resulted into delays in government projects.

Government data show the railway ministry is culpable for the latest delay, where ministers announce new projects every year but forget about monitoring the pace of the pending ones. Recently, a minister observed at a Cabinet meeting that it would take at least three five-year plans to complete all pending railway projects.

Over the last six years, 70 railway projects have overshot their original cost estimates, incurring as much as Rs 23,295.40 crore as additional financial requirement.

The road transport and highways ministry (headed by T R Baalu in the first UPA and now by Kamal Nath) tops the list with 150 projects facing cost overruns. Praful Patel’s civil aviation ministry, however, is an exception which has shown a reduction in project expenses by 123.50 crore.

“Railways, road and transport projects are most likely to post cost and time overruns as multifarious stakeholders are involved and a lot of work is based on contracts. Often, these contracts get cancelled because of various problems like land acquisition, which in turn inflates the original cost estimates,” said an official in MoSPI.

dewanand · Post by **dewanand** » 28 May 2010 15:04

How is the condition of the black and informal economy of India? this part of India is never highlighted anywhere. This informal economy is more efficient and cheaper for most Indians. I have read something in a book of Ruddar Datt in his book INdian Economy. Does anyone knows more about this?

Dewanand

Sanjay M · Post by **Sanjay M** » 29 May 2010 06:46

Forbes has a video feature on 'The India Way' - the distinctive management style of Indian companies:

http://video.forbes.com/fvn/notes/the-india-way

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 31 May 2010 11:20

Official GDP data for 2009-10 is out: GDP grew 7.4% during the last fiscal year.
CSO/MOSPI Official Data
GDP in 2009-10: Rs.62,31,171 cr (approx. $1.36-$1.4 trillion)
Gross National Income: Rs.64,47,180 cr (approx. $1.4-$1.45 trillion)
Per Capita GDP: Rs.50,157 (approx. $1100)
Gross Fixed Capital Formation (investment/GDP): 32.8%
Real GDP growth rate: 7.4%
Nominal GDP growth rate: 11.8%

Jan-March GDP grows 8.6%, FY10 annual GDP growth 7.4%

Economy grew an expected 8.6 per cent in the March quarter from a year earlier, driven by robust manufacturing sector on the back of government and consumer spending.

The manufacturing sector grew 16.3 per cent in January-March from a year earlier, while farm output rose an annual 0.7 per cent, government data showed on Monday.

For the full year to March, the economy expanded 7.4 per cent, above a government forecast of 7.2 per cent.

Sanjay M · Post by **Sanjay M** » 31 May 2010 15:20

India's Growth Recovering at 8.6%

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142 ... 91456.html

vera_k · Post by **vera_k** » 31 May 2010 21:36

Per capita income grows by 10.5%

Per capita income in the year ending FY10 was Rs. 44,345 or ~ US$982 (@March 31 exchange rate of 1 USD = INR 45.14). Population seems to be growing rapidly since PCI is below $1000 after many years of fast growth.

Virupaksha · Post by **Virupaksha** » 31 May 2010 21:57

vera_k wrote:Per capita income grows by 10.5%

Per capita income in the year ending FY10 was Rs. 44,345 or ~ US$982 (@March 31 exchange rate of 1 USD = INR 45.14). Population seems to be growing rapidly since PCI is below $1000 after many years of fast growth.

vera_k,

dont forget the effect of exchange rate. Two years ago at one time, 1 USD=50 Rs and 1 year it was 40Rs, that is almost 20% swing.

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 31 May 2010 22:53

http://www.livemint.com/2010/05/3021445 ... nd-th.html
New Indian middle class and the fight within

Conventionally, it is the middle class that shapes public opinion. So what we had was a rare battle within this very articulate demographic segment; it was not a clash between the haves and the have-nots—like say in the historic strike by textile mill workers of Mumbai in the early 1980s. Assuming that this confrontation had not happened in the backdrop of the Mangalore tragedy, it would be difficult to pick between the two sides: Were the employees right in going on strike, ostensibly to protest a gag order issued by the management after the Mangalore air crash, or were the users right in opposing any dislocation of services because of the industrial action? The unions have the advantage of being cohesive; this flows from their being organized and fighting for a common cause. Users of aviation services, on the other hand, are more disparate, but very important stakeholders in modern Indian society—imagine the loss of business opportunity that people had to incur because flights got cancelled, besides the hazards of dislocated logistics.
Going forward, this battle is likely to play out again and again—whether it be in telecom services or banking services and so on. All the more since the Indian economy is unlikely to shed its recently acquired contours with over 50% of the country’s gross domestic product accruing from the service sector—not surprisingly it is also the largest employment generator

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 31 May 2010 22:56

http://www.jsonline.com/business/95233934.html
Investment Trends
Growth potential of Indian stocks steal the show

India has a relatively self-contained economy with just 15% of it tied to exports, and a rising middle class that is not burdened with high debt, he said. More than half of the country's population is under 29 years of age."Think of what the baby boom generation did for our nation in terms of increased productivity," McIlveen said.There's always a risk of social unrest or that commodity-poor India could be hurt by a big energy price spike. The admission by Satyam Computer Services in early 2009 that it had been inflating earnings is also a reminder that fraud can surface.But McIlveen sees opportunities for investors in India, where stocks trade at an average of 15 times their estimated earnings for the next 12 months.

Companies like Unilever (UL, $27.04), Colgate-Palmolive Co. (CL, $78.09) and Vodafone Group (VOD, $20.10) all stand to benefit from India's rising middle class, he said.

vina · Post by **vina** » 01 Jun 2010 09:14

Hmm. India's economy is surely undergoing a churn. New companies and sectors are coming up, some old companies and sectors are dying out, more wealth gets created, economy expands in all directions away from a narrow base.

For eg, out of the current 50 stocks in the Nifty Index, 8 of them were not present in the Nifty just 2.5 years ago!. They replaced some other stocks and sectors!. That is a whole 16% churn in the index and I think that is huge. Some of them altogether "new" sectors like real estate , companies like etc . I think over the past 10 years, the churn would be simply remarkable, there are 3 or so wireless companies, a couple of real estate guys, one IT/Vity guy disappeared etc.

Good. All in all

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 01 Jun 2010 18:36

chetan bhagat in a toi article yesterday lashes the GOI and other esteemed foundations/thing-tanks for sitting on 1000s of acres of prime land in
NDMC area. he makes a case that this land with suitable FSI could be worth 100,000cr and the replacement housing and offices of modern sobha/itvity levels in gurgaon and noida could be done for 20,000cr.

I think his idea is only partially right.
[a] there is no way in hell that stuff like rashtrapati bhavan, north & south blocks, some of the stuff like teen murti bhavan, national museum are going to go anywhere.
a one time sale will indeed net a lot of money if a ton of "heritage" bungalows currently occupied by the bandicoot MPs/ministers were
razed and sold to DLF/sobha but the GOI will soon fritter it away in some giveaway scheme and deficits will be back to high later.

I think GOI could go for a JV and start building malls and offices in freed up land and get a steady stream of revenue from these establishments.
not the crumbling dirty nehru place quality but itvity quality where pvt sector can have their swank offices in leafy areas and pay high rents.
some serviced apts and hotels could also be opened. likewise in core delhi NO NEW SCHOOL has been allowed to be opened in last 20-30 yrs.
so how about allowing some new schools to serve the people. a few engineering colleges, delhi iit expansion (sorely needed), new furrin pvt
univs, delhi univ expansion....all these are more useful than letting bandicoots live in 2 acre plots and spend 30L on "repairs" in each movein/moveout cycle from our tax funds.

central govt officer colonies also occupy vast swathes of south dilli along prime ring roads - most are low rise 4 storey. these could be consolidated into 23 storey buildings and freedup land allocated to other ends.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 03 Jun 2010 00:53

Early trends on the current fiscal quarter (April-June):
Q1 GDP growth may quicken to 9%: Chief Statistician

India’s economy might accelerate to 9 per cent on strong consumer demand, Chief Statistician Pronab Sen said today.

He, however, added inflation would be the major concern going ahead and the data which would primarily determine future monetary policy measures.

“Investments are rising and demand is accelerating,” said Sen on the sidelines of a National Sample Survey Organisation (NSSO) seminar. “The Reserve Bank of India will be watching the core inflation rate very closely and may raise (policy) rates if it accelerates,” he added.

Sen further mentioned growth numbers for 2009-10 were “pleasant “ and that expectations of achieving 8.5 per cent growth in 2010-11 was a “clear possibility”.

Bank credit grows 18%, infrastructure gets major share

According to data released by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), bank credit went up by Rs 2,406 crore to Rs 32,30,178 crore at the end of May 14. On a year-on-year basis, credit has grown by 18.04 per cent. During the fortnight ended May 7, banks lent an additional Rs 13,030 crore.

The central bank has projected that credit will grow 20 per cent and deposits 18 per cent this financial year.

“The bulk of demand is coming from the infrastructure sector. All other sectors are showing normal growth. Demand from the retail side is steady but growth in home loans has been modest,” said a senior executive of Axis Bank.

Despite the fall in deposit mobilisation, banks’ investment in government securities, or instruments that can be accounted for while calculating the statutory liquidity ratio, increased by Rs 16,585.1 crore. Banks generally park surplus funds after meeting the demand for credit.

Record credit growth in the last fortnight of the previous financial year helped banks sail past RBI’s estimate of 16 per cent growth for the year. Banks disbursed an additional Rs 1,15,548 crore in 15 days up to March 26, almost 25 per cent of the Rs 4,64,849 crore disbursed in the entire financial year.

Mutual fund assets break Rs.8 lakh crore ($175 billion) mark

The industry's average assets under management (AUM) grew by Rs 34,393.67 crore, or 4.47 per cent, in May. The combined average AUM of the 37 fund houses stood at Rs 8,03,559.06 crore.

The last time the industry saw this record level of average AUM was in November, when the assets hit an all-time high of Rs 8.07 lakh crore, data by the Association of Mutual Funds in India (AMFI) showed.

Over May, Reliance MF, the largest fund house, saw an addition of Rs 7,154 crore to its average assets at Rs 1.19 lakh crore.

After a gap of six months, the assets of HDFC MF breached the Rs 1 lakh crore mark in May. By the end of May, the AUM of HDFC had increased by Rs 7,160.53 crore to Rs 1,01,863.31 crore, becoming the second fund house to manage assets of over Rs 1 trillion.

Third-largest fund house ICICI Prudential MF saw its assets rising by Rs 4,674.30 crore to Rs 87,709.81 crore.

"The funds, which were pulled out in March, were reinfused in May. Also, short-term and ultra short-term funds saw hefty inflows, which propelled MF industry assets," Kotak Mutual Fund (fixed income and products) head Lakshmi Iyer said.

However, UTI MF bucked the trend and saw a decline of Rs 840 crore from its assets to Rs 78,617.15 crore during May.

krisna · Post by **krisna** » 04 Jun 2010 08:39

http://business.rediff.com/report/2010/ ... pisode.htm

The debt problem of Greece is compounded by the fact that a good part of the government debt is held by foreign institutions, particularly foreign banks. It is estimated that ¤106 billion of government bonds may be held by foreign banks.

The one lesson from the Greek episode for all countries is the need to maintain fiscal prudence. There is merit in containing the fiscal deficit to a level that is consistent with a country's ability to meet the debt service payments. It is wrong to assume that by running high fiscal deficits, a country can grow faster and ride out of the problems. The situation becomes even more complicated if a substantial part of the debt is held by foreigners. On the whole, there is wisdom in countries working towards maintaining an appropriate ratio of stock of public debt to GDP. To be prudent is to be wise. This is plain "old" economics.

The author is chairman, Prime Minister's Economic Advisory Council
C Rangarajan

Little google search informs me that India has most of its debt in local hands, may be better than foreign institutions.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 04 Jun 2010 12:00

India's `Credit Hunger' May Constrain Subbarao From Raising Interest Rates

India’s central bank needs to consider a credit crunch while setting interest rates after payment of license fees for third-generation phone services drained cash, said Kaushik Basu, chief economic adviser in the finance ministry.

“With the 3G auction and demand for credit having picked up, there is a credit hunger now,” Basu, 58, said in an interview in New Delhi yesterday. “The Reserve Bank of India will need to take stock of it as it balances inflation management and growth in deciding actions on policy rates.”

Governor Duvvuri Subbarao is facing headwinds to tighten monetary policy and slow the fastest inflation rate among Group of 20 nations. Last week, the RBI eased rules to boost liquidity as operators including Bharti Airtel Ltd. prepared to pay $14.5 billion for wireless permits. The move came after the central bank signaled Europe’s debt crisis may slow its pace of interest-rate increases.

“Monetary tightening is a given,” said Shubhada Rao, chief economist at Mumbai-based Yes Bank Ltd. “It is the timing, which has different scenarios.”

Automakers in India plan $30 billion new investment

Automobile manufacturers in India such as Maruti Suzuki Ltd. and Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd. are estimated to invest $30 billion over the next four years to meet rising demand in the world’s second-fastest growing economy, the Economic Times newspaper reported citing Vishnu Mathur, director-general at the industry lobby group Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers.

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 04 Jun 2010 22:22

SHEFALI ANAND
Want to make money off India's infrastructure boom?
No, you can't invest in the $11 billion fund which the government recently said it would set up to finance India's much-needed infrastructure development. That fund will be available only to large institutional investors like insurance companies, pension funds, and so on.For individuals who want to participate in India's infrastructure growth story, the options are limited. The wealthy -- with 1,000,000 rupees or more to invest -- can buy directly into infrastructure projects through private equity and venture capital deals. For the rest of us, buying stocks of infrastructure companies is the best bet. Some infrastructure bonds are also expected to come to market over the next few months but their returns may be fixed and thus not be tied directly to infrastructure growth.The case for investing in India's infrastructure is obvious: to keep the economy growing at a rate of 8% or more, we need to build roads, generate more electricity and provide more water to all of India. And we need to do all of this pretty quickly. So, barring some unforeseen economic setbacks, it's fair to expect that companies involved in the infrastructure space will grow at double-digits rates.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142 ... 24296.html

mnag · Post by **mnag** » 05 Jun 2010 11:12

Karnataka bags investments worth Rs 4 trillion
http://ibnlive.in.com/news/ktaka-reaps- ... ml?from=tn

Recently, Karnataka held the global investors meet to attract investment. CNN IBN reports the following (however, I dont get how 0.85bn$ = 4T Rs. i guess it is 85bn$ and not 0.85bn$)

Karnataka concluded the Global Investors Meet (GIM 2010) late Friday on a high note, with investments worth Rs.4 trillion (about $.85 billion) flowing in for about 400 projects to be implemented over next four-five years to generate employment potential for 865,000 people
....
Of the 400 projects, 208 were signed on the first day of the GIM (Thursday) worth Rs.3.29 trillion (Rs.3.3 lakh crore).
Iron & steel sector attracted 38 proposals worth Rs.2.21 trillion (Rs.2.2 lakh crore), followed by cement sector with nine projects worth Rs.36,991 crore (Rs.370 billion) and energy sector with eight projects worth Rs.25,214 crore (Rs.252 billion).
Among the major steel projects are from ArcelorMittal, Posco and Bramhani Karnataka Ltd, which have proposed to set up six mtpa plants each at an estimated cost of Rs.30,000-36,000 crore in Bellary and Bagalkote districts.

Vipul · Post by **Vipul** » 05 Jun 2010 22:23

Such Investor meet tamasha's are held periodically by Gujarat and Maharashtra where the Govts tout the mega investments being planned for their states.These are just MOU's for photo-ops and less then 10 to 20% of the investment would materialize.Gujarat has a better track record of getting these plans implemented.

This years Unique event was that a Govt Company - BEML also joined the list of companies and has announced a 356 Crore investment for a plant to make aircrafts and parts!!!!

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 05 Jun 2010 23:41

GoI is pushing for a minimum 25% public shareholding of listed companies:
India Ruling on Minimum Ownership May Generate $53 Billion of Share Sales

Companies must increase shares held by the public to a minimum 25 percent by selling at least 5 percent annually, according to an e-mailed statement from the government’s Press Information Bureau yesterday.

The rule may prompt equity sales of about 2.5 trillion rupees among companies including state-owned ONGC, India’s biggest energy explorer, and Reliance Power, owned by billionaire Anil Ambani, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The step will also boost government efforts to reduce stakes in its companies and cut the budget deficit.

“The aim of the government is to have a market that is efficient and liquid, and not susceptible to volatile movements due to thin volumes,” said Jitendra Sriram, who helps manage $800 million as head of equities at HSBC Asset Management (India) Pvt. in Mumbai. “A limited float is susceptible to manipulation. The government wants to encourage a wider minority participation to increase the depth of the market.”

Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee had proposed in his July 6, 2009, budget speech that a rule requiring a public float of at least 25 percent for listed companies should be enforced uniformly, including on state-run companies.

“The move is good for the markets as it will lead to better price discovery and transparency,” said Tarun Bhatia, director of capital markets at Crisil Research in Mumbai. “I think the government has given companies a fair timeframe to increase public shareholding and the market should be able to absorb it.”

lsunil · Post by **lsunil** » 06 Jun 2010 12:29

If this was already posted then i was not aware.

India's bureaucracy is 'the most stifling in the world'

The Hong Kong based group, Political and Economic Risk Consultancy, surveyed more than 1,300 business executives in 12 Asian countries.

The report ranks bureaucracies across Asia on a scale from one to 10, with 10 being the worst possible score. India scored 9.41.

Frequent promises to reform the bureaucracy, the report says, have come to nothing, mainly because the civil service is a power centre in its own right.

Starting a business in India is incredibly hard, and enforcing contracts can be nigh on impossible.

There is a strong link, the report says, between bureaucracy and corruption - and a widely held belief that bureaucrats are selfish and highly insensitive to the needs of the people they are supposed to help.

Chinmayanand · Post by **Chinmayanand** » 06 Jun 2010 16:21

lsunil wrote:
There is a strong link, the report says, between bureaucracy and corruption - and a widely held belief that bureaucrats are selfish and highly insensitive to the needs of the people they are supposed to help.

True .

wig · Post by **wig** » 06 Jun 2010 20:00

in my very humble opinion bureaucrats in india are a class by themselves. hence even a score of whatever is a big score. had there been negative marks they deserve it.
but in this they are ably assisted by extremely loose drafting of the laws that they are expected to abide by. these laws are drafted by persons of their own ilk in positions at the various ministries and enacted by legislatures (national and state) with a devil may care attitude.
all the acts, rules are framed in an insensitive manner. what i imply is that the laws can be interpreted to suit varying shades of opinion. this is exploited by one and all for pecuniary gain.
combine this with a judicial system that is capable of interpreting the laws in diametrically opposite directions and one can draw a better picture. eg the Union Carbide judgement is expected on 07 june 2010, after about 25 years
to avoid all this canny persons offer bribes at executive levels to bend the system to serve their vested interests. this is the one reason for the large business houses running scared when the economy was liberalised first in 1990 or so.
there is hardly any accountability for taking any decision good or bad. this results in the chalta hai attitude.

SK Mody · Post by **SK Mody** » 07 Jun 2010 00:36

lsunil wrote:
Frequent promises to reform the bureaucracy, the report says, have come to nothing, mainly because the civil service is a power centre in its own right.

Thus the first step is to reduce the size (and power) of the bureaucracy. Only then can reform be possible. Those who ceaselessly advocate the one point agenda of cutting down the size of the govt. bureaucracy know what they are talking about. But the actual ways in which this can happen are implicit.

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 07 Jun 2010 00:56

.India's Reliance in Informal Talks With AT&T
India's Reliance Communications Ltd. and U.S. telecom giant AT&T Inc. have sounded out each other's interest about a potential transaction in which AT&T would take a significant minority stake in the Indian cellphone company, according to people familiar with the matter.The people characterized the informal discussions as very early, and cautioned that no deal is imminent, but said advisers and officials at the companies have been in touch in the past few weeks to explore the idea. Reliance, which is backed by billionaire Anil Ambani, said on Sunday its board has approved the sale of up to a 26% ...

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142 ... 72834.html

Theo_Fidel · Post by **Theo_Fidel** » 08 Jun 2010 05:40

Sometimes I really want to throw things at these writers.

Mr Sharma today is driving me crazy.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142 ... lenews_wsj

Alimunisha's home is a 150-square-foot mud floor with a roof of plastic tarp held up by bamboo sticks. The beds are burlap potato sacks. There's no running water, electricity or toilet. She can afford to feed her five children one meal a day on the income her husband earns selling traditional drums.

In the above sentence the most important point is the last one. Sells traditional drums.

How in heavens name do you make any sort of living doing that in a society that has very little surplus for entertainment. This is a profession for a rich society, and even then only in a highly skilled Stradivarius kinda way.

But instead of understanding the crux of the matter the writer blathers on...

The Planning Commission, which advises the central government on economic policy, said in April it is taking steps that would increase the national poverty rate to 37.2% of the population, from 27.5%. That will increase the official tally of the poor by about one-third, bringing it to roughly 408 million.

Some Indians say even that enormous figure, which is based on a poverty income threshold of $10 per person per month in rural areas and $13 in cities, is far too low. They point to government-appointed panels that have pegged the realistic poverty rate as high as 77%, based on a daily income of about 45 cents per day.

The line in the sand has no relevance. This is a urban family. They are quite simply not eligible for the NREGS.

The World Bank, which defines poverty as survival on less than $1.25 per day, says India reduced poverty from 60% of the populace to 42% between 1981 and 2005, but says the country still accounts for one-third of the world's 1.4 billion poor people. In the same period, China reduced poverty from 84% to 16%.

Poverty assistance in India is provided through government ration cards, which confer poverty status on individual households. The official poverty estimate acts as a cap on the number of households that can be deemed in poverty, so states have quotas on the number of ration cards they can issue.

Here comes the real story. It is the usual ration card scam.

I've said this before. The really poor in India are not part of the cash economy. How is a ration card to help them.

This is entirely a povertywalla mandate to siphon off more dole.

The ruling Congress Party is drafting a law to make food subsidies a statutory right—they're currently provided via executive order—and to increase subsidies for basics like wheat and rice. Under the current system, below-poverty-line families get 77 pounds of food and 3 liters of kerosene, which they use for lanterns in areas with no electricity, for less than $5. The bill also aims to clean up corruption in the distribution process.

But the most pressing question is how many people the program should cover. Congress Party President Sonia Gandhi, who has made the "right to food" bill her pet project, was unhappy with early drafts based on the previous poverty count, because she thought too many people would be left behind, people familiar with her thinking say. Through a spokesman, Mrs. Gandhi declined to comment.

Last September, the city bulldozed the slum prior to the planned inauguration by the state governor of a building across the street—the state's Human Rights Commission. The ceremony was canceled amid a backlash over the incident. Residents re-erected their mud and bamboo homes.

Ms. Alimunisha's husband earns about $40 per month—less than the official poverty line for a household of seven—by selling "dholaks," folk drums made of mango wood and goat skin.

"I feel so bad being poor," Ms. Alimunisha says. "Are we going to have to live like this all our lives?"

Unlike Ms Gandhi I have no answer to this question.

My brain tells me that as long as Dholak selling is a considered a profession for the 300 Million chunk of our population their future can never be very bright. But my heart says I can not say this.

One other thing. If we took that $30 Billion in welfare and distributed it in cash to everyone of those 400 million people, they would get a payment of roughly $10 a month per person.

That family of seven would get $70 per month as direct payment, to maybe go to school and find a proper job.

Now that is a subsidy program I can support.

Ms Gandhi, are you listening.

svinayak · Post by **svinayak** » 08 Jun 2010 07:26

What is Gandhi got to do with it.
PM and the planning commission have to look at this

biswas · Post by **biswas** » 08 Jun 2010 11:01

My god, 5 children?

Family planning and distribution of condoms as well?

Dileep · Post by **Dileep** » 08 Jun 2010 11:47

EVERYTHING will be scammed in this country. We are so good at that.

If we go into coupon system:

1. Coupons will be accepted at liquor/dope outlets, so that dad can get his fix, instead of food
2. Coupons will be used as chips for playing card by dad
3. You will have to bribe the babu to get the coupons, EVERYTIME.
4. The local dada will take your coupons for 'hafta'
5. Coupons for only Atta and Mustard oil will be made available in Kerala.
6. Reliance and Varkeys will stop stocking the items on coupons.
7. You will see people driving up in a car and buy stuff using coupons.

And finally: ISI will import container loads of fake coupons from dubai.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 08 Jun 2010 21:16

India recovery faster than projected: World Bank

According to World Bank’s South Asia Economic Update, India’s economy will grow at 8-9 per cent over the next two years. Inflation, rising interest rates, small appreciation in the rupee and continued low growth in high-income countries, however, could weigh on the recovery. Risks to outlook come from volatility in capital inflows, staggering global recovery and inflation shocks. Staggered recovery in high-income developed nations might also adversely affect trade prospects and hit remittance inflows, however, growth prospects continue to be optimistic .

The report further states that the Indian economy is recovering faster than expected and is consistently getting broader based. “Growth in the second quarter of 2009-10 was an unexpectedly high 7.9 per cent …private demand growth has lately been the strongest in two years at the end of the third quarter of 2009-10,” says the report.

The growth in private demand has been seen as an “early sign” that a stronger platform for future growth is taking hold. Moreover, the report also notes that even as the third quarter growth was hit by a weak monsoon and waning fiscal stimulus, the industry continued to surge.

“Indicators suggest growing optimism on the economy and policy extending into 2010, as evident from improved ratings, confidence indexes, and expectations surveys,” the report adds.

IT department targets Rs.4.3 lakh crore ($99 billion) direct tax collections

The Income Tax (I-T) department will look for ways to meet the direct tax collection target of Rs 4.30 lakh crore at its two-day annual meet starting here tomorrow, despite several concessions declared in the Budget.

"The collection target becomes stiff in view of the relief and concessions announced in the Budget 2010 involving a direct tax outgo of about Rs 26,000 crore," an official statement said here today.

The Budget estimate 2010-11 has pegged the direct tax haul at Rs 4,30,000 crore at a growth of 16.2 per cent over the budget estimates for 2009-10.

The 3G/BWA earnings will massively improve the fiscal deficit position. The flip side is that we will see higher telecom service costs and industry churn/consolidation as more financially strained companies merge or disappear from market:
GoI revenues from 3G, BWA to cross Rs.1 lakh crore ($22 billion)

The government’s revenue from the auction of 3G and broadband wireless access (BWA) spectrum is all set to cross Rs 1 lakh crore, an almost three-fold increase over its initial projection of Rs 35,000 crore. On the 12th day of BWA auction, the pan-India bid price reached Rs 10,652 crore, over six times the reserve price of Rs 1,750 crore.

While the total revenue from 3G and BWA auctions stood at Rs 99,675 crore as of today, the revenues from BWA auction, which is expected to end this week, have reached Rs 31,956 crore. The government has already earned Rs 67,719 crore from the recently concluded 3G spectrum auction.

BWA spectrum would enable Worldwide Interoperability for Microwave Access (WiMAX) services in laptops and desktops, which would allow consumers to access the Internet at a very high speed.

Nihat · Post by **Nihat** » 08 Jun 2010 22:05

The telecom sector is vastly overgrown and a little bit of cut and trim from the not so big players will actually help the big companies operate on bigger margins. The super thin margins have to take their toll on the small fishes sometime.

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 10 Jun 2010 00:17

http://www.indianexpress.com/news/UAE-s ... -bn/631329
UAE’s largest trade partner, India to push biz to $96 bn

After pipping China as the largest trade partner with the UAE in fiscal 2009, India now expects to shore up its bilateral trade with the Middle-Eastern country to more than $96 billion in the next five years. To promote trade, India has also unveiled the India Show here wherein more than 250 businessmen are participating.
Speaking on the sidelines of the show, Federations of Indian Export Organisations president A Sakthivel said that India has become UAE’s largest trading partner in 2009 with exports worth $24 billion in fiscal year 2009. This is a growth of 56 per cent compared with the previous fiscal. “The pace at which the trade with UAE is growing, we expect it to double in the next five years. Dubai is the central hub for exports in Middle-East North African countries as well,” A Sakthivel said.
According to the provisional figures, the non-oil trade between the countries stood at $50 billion during the last fiscal. The three-day Made in India Show, which was inaugurated by UAE’s trade and commerce minister Sheikha Lubna today, has about 250 participants. “It is a good platform for exporters and we expect good business from here,” Sakthivel said.
India is the UAE’s largest trading partner, accounting for almost 15 per cent of the country’s total commodity exchange. Main items of export from India include mineral fuel, gems and jewellery, cotton yarn, marine products and meat. Imports to India mainly include petroleum products, natural and cultural pearls.

putnanja · Post by **putnanja** » 10 Jun 2010 06:40

Why India is not Greece - Ashima Goyal

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 10 Jun 2010 06:49

putnanja wrote:Why India is not Greece - Ashima Goyal

That article should not have been even written.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 10 Jun 2010 06:52

Passenger vehicles sales surges 35% in May

New products and increased consumer confidence led to record growth in passenger vehicle sales in May. According to the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (SIAM), the passenger vehicle industry registered 35 per cent growth in May, the highest ever, at 190,575 units against 141,145 units in May last year. The overall automobile industry recorded a jump of 30 per cent last month at 1,208,851 units, as compared to 929,917 units last May.

However, in absolute terms, the highest ever monthly passenger vehicle sales had happened this March, at 199,109 units.

“Last month's figures were the best-ever sales for the month of May in almost all categories and has come on the back of strong fundamentals of the economy and stable interest rates, along with several new launches in the last few months,” said Vishnu Mathur, director general, Siam.

He said new models and their aggressive pricing had given Indian consumers wider choice and so, passenger vehicle sales continued to be buoyant even in May, traditionally a lean month. According to SIAM, sales of Maruti Suzuki India went up by 27.2 per cent at 90,041 units, while Hyundai Motor India registered growth of 15.5 per cent at 27,151 units. Sales of Tata Motor surged by 33.2 per cent to 25,186 units in May. Ford India and GM India had growth of 272 per cent and 61 per cent, respectively, with their new Figo and Beat models.

GoI targets Rs.150,000cr ($33 billion) from PSU stake sale

The government is planning to divest stake in 35 public sector companies over the next five years to raise around Rs 1,50,000 crore. The Department of Disinvestment has set a target of raising Rs 40,000 crore this year, of which it has raised over Rs 1,000 crore through stake sale in SJVN Ltd.

SJVN Ltd has been the only public issue from the government in the first three months of the financial year. The big public issues being planned are those of Coal India Ltd (CIL), Steel Authority of India Ltd (SAIL), Bharat Sanchar Nigam Ltd (BSNL) and MMTC. Hindustan Copper, Manganese Ore India Ltd (MOIL) and Engineers India Ltd (EIL) would be among the smaller issues. The Cabinet is likely to approve the sale of 20 per cent in Kolkata-based Hindustan Copper Ltd (HCL) tomorrow. “We have shortlisted 35 companies for divestment and are waiting for the finance ministry’s clearance. It will be a phase-wise divestment spread over five years. The government will raise Rs 1,50,000 crore,” Minister of State for Heavy Industries and Public Sector Enterprises Arun Yadav told reporters here at the first Public Sector Enterprises Summit.

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 11 Jun 2010 01:52

http://paidcontent.co.uk/article/419-[b ... -postclick[/b]-/

Indian ad net Komli Media has acquired Australian online rep firm PostClick. The deal is intended to expand Komli’s reach across the Asia Pacific region, which still has a lot of potential for online ad spending to grow. The combination of Komli and PostClick gives the two companies a reach of over 30 million uniques. Terms of the transaction weren’t disclosed. Mumbai-based Komli already has a fairly broad global presence, through its offices in New Delhi, New York, Palo Alto, and Toronto, as well as Singapore, Sydney, Melbourne, where PostClick has its satellites

biswas · Post by **biswas** » 11 Jun 2010 09:04

Prem wrote:http://paidcontent.co.uk/article/419-[b ... -postclick[/b]-/

Indian ad net Komli Media has acquired Australian online rep firm PostClick. The deal is intended to expand Komli’s reach across the Asia Pacific region, which still has a lot of potential for online ad spending to grow. The combination of Komli and PostClick gives the two companies a reach of over 30 million uniques. Terms of the transaction weren’t disclosed. Mumbai-based Komli already has a fairly broad global presence, through its offices in New Delhi, New York, Palo Alto, and Toronto, as well as Singapore, Sydney, Melbourne, where PostClick has its satellites

Wrong section ji, there's an Indian Mergers and Acquisitions thread somewhere.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 11 Jun 2010 11:39

Current fiscal year begins at a strong clip:
April IIP grows 17.6%, beats estimates

India’s industrial production grew 17.6 percent in April, more than analysts predicted, strengthening the case for an interest-rate increase even as Europe’s debt woes threaten the global economy.

Output at factories, utilities and mines rose after gaining a revised 13.9 percent in March from a year earlier, the statistics department said in a statement in New Delhi today. The April increase was faster than the 14.3 percent median forecast of 24 economists in a Bloomberg News survey.

The announcement affirms Asia has so far been untouched by the crisis emanating from Greece, with data from China’s exports to job growth in South Korea and Australia beating analysts’ estimates. The Reserve Bank of India has said it plans to counter inflation by increasing rates at a “moderate” pace on concern Europe’s debt turmoil may spark a global downturn.

According to the CSO official report, the breakdown is:
Mining: 11.4%
Manufacturing: 19.4%
Electricity: 6%

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 12 Jun 2010 01:53

Suraj wrote:The 3G/BWA earnings will massively improve the fiscal deficit position. The flip side is that we will see higher telecom service costs and industry churn/consolidation as more financially strained companies merge or disappear from market:
GoI revenues from 3G, BWA to cross Rs.1 lakh crore ($22 billion)
The government’s revenue from the auction of 3G and broadband wireless access (BWA) spectrum is all set to cross Rs 1 lakh crore, an almost three-fold increase over its initial projection of Rs 35,000 crore. On the 12th day of BWA auction, the pan-India bid price reached Rs 10,652 crore, over six times the reserve price of Rs 1,750 crore.

While the total revenue from 3G and BWA auctions stood at Rs 99,675 crore as of today, the revenues from BWA auction, which is expected to end this week, have reached Rs 31,956 crore. The government has already earned Rs 67,719 crore from the recently concluded 3G spectrum auction.

The auctions are over. GoT earned Rs.1.06 lakh crore (~$23 billion), thrice as much as the budget estimate of Rs.35000 crore.
India Bandwidth Auction Ends

The government said it will earn INR385.43 billion ($8.23 billion) from the auctions, including payments by state-run Bharat Sanchar Nigam Ltd. and Mahanagar Telephone Nigam Ltd. (500108.BY), which were given bandwidth before the auctions but now must match the winning bids.

Together with the INR677.19 billion it received from the auctions of third-generation, or 3G, bandwidth, the government has generated about INR1.063 trillion ($22.7 billion) from the two events, compared to the INR350.00 billion it had estimated in its federal budget.

The windfall revenue from the broadband and 3G auctions is likely to part-fund government payouts toward food, fuel and fertilizer subsidies and also help shrink the fiscal deficit.

The government is pushing to increase broadband usage in a country where broadband Internet services are still in their infancy: only nine million of the country's more than one billion people have access to such connectivity.

India's telecom regulator, in a paper issued June 10, estimated the country to have about 48 million broadband users by 2012, and about 100 million by 2014.