Are We Ready for a Two-front War ?

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Are We Ready for a Two-front War ?

Postby sachin_b_k » 18 Jun 2010 17:38

A realistic scenario is Pakistan intiating a limited war against India most likely in the Kashmir valley by combined air and ground assault and labelling it as a reaction to Indian border adventurism. US will ask India to exercise restraint while it tries to make Pakistan see reason. China insists on India respecting the "will" of the people of "disputed" Kashmir and labels it as a popular uprising/revolution. Manmohan signh calls for a cabinet meet along with the chief of staffs. Pakistan makes deep inroads and inflicts heavy losses thanks to the surprise and new weapons acquired from US and China. China simultaneously mobilises its troops all along the Indian border and warns india privately of loosing more territory and space if not acceeding to Pakistani conditons. Will our army and air force be able to fight this two front war (one overt and other covert?)

Gist: there are many realistic scenarios which can see India engaged in a two way fight with china and pak. are we prepared for such an eventuality ? or is the fear itself unfounded ?
Last edited by Rahul M on 18 Jun 2010 21:18, edited 2 times in total.
Reason: gist added.

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Re: India vs Pak China : Can we win?

Postby Rahul M » 18 Jun 2010 18:40

actually we CAN have a good discussion on this topic (with specifics and minus the fantasies) provided the knowledgeable folk are willing to contribute. if you are interested in participating please raise your hand (i.e post here acknowledging the fact) I'm keeping this open for now and trashing the IB4TLs. will take a decision after 24hours whether to keep this thread or not.

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Re: India vs Pak China : Can we win?

Postby Kanson » 18 Jun 2010 18:59

There is unconfirmed reports that Ceylon is allowing Chinese's operation against India from the Island.

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Re: India vs Pak China : Can we win?

Postby Rahul M » 18 Jun 2010 19:02

what kind of operation ?

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Re: India vs Pak China : Can we win?

Postby Kanson » 18 Jun 2010 19:04

intel

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Re: India vs Pak China : Can we win?

Postby Pratyush » 18 Jun 2010 19:18

Rahul,

I don't think i have the knowledge required to actively participate in this thread. However, I would love to learn from the guru logs. FWIW.

Therefore, please don't lock this thread.

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Re: India vs Pak China : Can we win?

Postby Samay » 18 Jun 2010 19:29

I'm keeping this open for now and trashing the IB4TLs. will take a decision after 24hours whether to keep this thread or not.
This could be transformed into a thread for all types of realistic scenarios (not fantasy stories) ,involving pak,china against India +- any other country in support or against the evil coalition .
For example a unique situation as is discussed with all possible attacks on India and how to counter-punch it. It would bring out some curious results,equal to that of a strategic war game 8)
if you are interested in participating please raise your hand (
:mrgreen:
Last edited by Samay on 18 Jun 2010 19:36, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: India vs Pak China : Can we win?

Postby Singha » 18 Jun 2010 19:34

can we please define what do you mean by "win" "lose" and "draw" as a end states. imo:

wrt solely pakistan:


Lose : pakistan captures the kashmir valley, cuts off leh , and we cannot win it back before ceasefire. led by separatist leaders, public support is mobilized, any opposition killed and US brokers a armistice where the lost territory declares "azadi" (under pakistani regency). pakistan makes no move on leh but with the kargil road gone and manali road nowhere in shape , ladakh stands at the mercy of china.

Win : india recaptures the J&K territory, with serious damage inflicted on pak main strike formations, bombs the pakistan economy back to 700AD with a sustained air campaign of a month and wipes the PN off the map. IAF goes in and defeats in depth the PAF, striking repeatedly at the western bases to wipe off the main strike assets. rest relocate for safety to gulf sheikhdoms, turkey and kashgar until armistice. IA occupies a thin slice of POK to tighten our defensive posture and plug gaps in the current LOC, some part of chicken neck also retained. PMO tells DC to STFU and take what we are giving in ceasefire or prepare pak for more punishment. PMO in response to nuclear threats for pakistan , publicly on live CNN tv
dares pakistan to even a single tactical nuke inside pakistani soil on indian formations and promises judgement day in response. US acts to lock down and disable pak nuclear assets until ceasefire to avert its use.

Draw : various points in between win and lose.

we have to think about various levels of chinese involvement in all these cases and work out the subcase definitions.

Light - diplomatic support, dark threats to act against india in multilateral aid forums/UNSC seat issue, liberal supplies of replacement arms during and after the conflict

Medium - all of light + moves some big military units in a threatening posture all along the front and some fighter squadrons into prepared tibetan airbases...intent is not to attack but tie down indian divs and relieve pressure on pakistan. instructions to naxals to launch all-out attacks on
indian railways in multiple states. massive cyber attacks on indian defence and commercial networks targeting financial market and C4I. attack on the indian rupee. a couple of submarines sent into bay of bengal to sink container ships (PN to claim as their hit) and drive up shipping insurance rates.

Heavy - probing attacks launched in ladakh, sikkim and tawang to tie down indian divs. heavy reinforcements fed into tibet to keep india guessing about extent of chinese ambitions and tie down indian reserves of men and aircraft.

all-out - serious territorial attack in ladakh and sikkim using heavy armour units and PLAAF. PLAN yuan, kilo and han class subs attack india bound
shipping in bay of bengal. encouragement to pakistan to attack indian civilian centers with missiles.
Last edited by Singha on 18 Jun 2010 19:43, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: India vs Pak China : Can we win?

Postby ParGha » 18 Jun 2010 19:41

Sorry, Rahul, but I have to vote thumbs down to this thread... not necessarily your clarified points.

While there are indeed some realistic PK+CH scenarios, the scenario posed is unrealistic.

The Chinese won't lift a fingernail in support of the Paks, unless they have some very concrete strategic objectives in their minds. It is a factor of history. India would have tried to address those objectives by diplomacy and policy first; anyone in the world who mattered - not the least the US - would be paying keen attention to those demands and how India deals with those.

Actually a simple "two-front" war is impossible. Either India will be almost fully surrounded by hostiles, or China will be, or both may happen one after another.

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Re: India vs Pak China : Can we win?

Postby P Chitkara » 18 Jun 2010 19:42

At present, this will put tremendous strain on our resources - both military and infrastructure.
There are multiple dimensions to it:

Military
Here, greater degree of indigenization on military hardware is going to be one of the key points. The dependence on foreign suppliers has its limitations - well known to all.

Political
a. External/World Dimension: There will be global reaction to this from different areas of world. I cant guess it right now. For west, both the chinese and the Indian economies are of interest. Other members may be able to contribute more on it.
b. Internal: How do our netas react to it and get things moving to our side. (after overcoming the initial shock and awe :oops: )

There may be other dimensions as well.

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Re: India vs Pak China : Can we win?

Postby sathyaC » 18 Jun 2010 19:51

Rahul we can keep this topic
+ we should have some set of rules(like LCA topic) to keep the discussion healthy as people can over the board more often in this topic compared to other topic

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Re: India vs Pak China : Can we win?

Postby Rahul M » 18 Jun 2010 19:58

thanks all for the feedback, this thread stays for the moment.

pargha, I'm aware of that, that's why I had the option "or is the fear itself unfounded ?"
even a discussion on the possibility of this scenario is expected to be part of this thread, so go ahead if you have any more inputs.

that said, it is unlikely IMHO but not impossible, isn't it ?

p.s. hat-tip to singhaji.

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Re: India vs Pak China : Can we win?

Postby negi » 18 Jun 2010 20:04

I don't know if this makes sense but whoever is working on this hypothetical standoff , can we for a start rule out the nukes and build upon the scenarios assuming a conventional warfare only ?

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Re: India vs Pak China : Can we win?

Postby ParGha » 18 Jun 2010 20:57

The fear is not "unfounded"; the PK+CH combine as a threat to India has been a reality since the 1960s.

However it has not been realistically presented in this thread, so it is hard to discuss specifics.

To illustrate it, let us consider the excellent point raised by Singha on what constitutes winning and losing in this conflict. It will be a huge victory for Pakistan if it could take and hold J&K... but if as an outcome of this loss, India abandons its non-alignedness and joins the US as a full fledged strategic partner (a la Japan or UK) it would be an unmitigated strategic debacle for the Chinese. OTOH even if IN beats the PK into bloody submission, if the PKs have extracted huge military, economic and diplomatic toll on IN... and CH gets off light and steals a march on IN in a vital resources/influence race elsewhere, it is a victory for the CH. You see where this is going?

In fact this point is - and must be - the cornerstone of India's strategy to PREVENT such a combine from going to war. Time would be better spent discussing how it can be done on another thread.

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Re: India vs Pak China : Can we win?

Postby sachin_b_k » 18 Jun 2010 21:17

Hmm.. it seems some of the "stelwarts" on this site are more interested in scoring points over one another or showing off that they are too much high in the hierarchy to reply to threads posted by "newbies" (the typical Indian mindset which made us slaves of Mughals and then the British) rather than taking the issue head on. I do not want to go into specifics of such individual responses as that would be trying to wasting time in making fun of our own folk instead of jointly analysing the issue. The scenario presented is realistic. Why? Pakistan is a reality. Its economy is a mess is a reality. Its a military powerhouse (nuclear and conventional) is a REALITY. Pakistan has STRONG chinese STRATEGIC ties is a REALITY. And that China wants to show India its "place" is a reality. China is economically and militarily storng enough to deter any US adventrism and well connected with Russians to deter any Russian involvemnet. We cant escape from this scenario. Pakistan has a single point agenda which is to humiliate India by annexing Kashmir. History testifies this. If we Indians were having strategically gifted politicians then we would not have landed in this awful situation. So to suggest that we will somehow diplomatically avert the scenario briefed in the initiation of the thread is to continue living in a make-believe world. Just because it hasn't happened till now is a fool's approach (which our netas are adopting). And have I not researched the internet to find out the capabilities of ours and our adversaries. I have to my potential which I am free to admit is limited. I am not a military expert but have sufficient common sense to see from the various military sites and blogs that a) we are in a serious problem posed by this scenario and b) it is realistic. Hence I am worried and hence posed the question. If the answer is coming out that India will get defeated, that is loose Kashmir, which is what I got from my LIMITED research analysis and understanding LETS FACE IT and initiate proper ALARM bells rather than dismissing it in our ego centric attidudes. Jai Hind. May Indians realise folly of Kuup Mandup psychology.

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Re: Are We Ready for a Two-front War ?

Postby Singha » 18 Jun 2010 21:27

I have to agree that while India's best interest is served by diplomatic, economic and military posturing to prevent such a case from happening,
we cannot just refuse to discuss a 2 front thing saying "it can never happen". a lot of things considered impossible did happen like the normandy landings and the breaching of the maginot line.

there is nothing using my definition to prevent the chinese from choosing the "medium" escalation option in support of pak - no real cost to them at all, not a shot fired in anger at the border. simply by positioning some armour brigades near ladakh and sikkim will lead to a massive flap in delhi when IA is heavily engaged in a war with PK at multiple points. using chankian strategy they can choose to make panchsheel noises initially
and let IA draw down its northern & eastern flank to rock bottom levels....and THEN using the superior infra surge in heavy armour and mech formations, along with warlike talk to cause a heart attack in PMO....they could even hold that as a implied threat to "conclude the ceasefire quickly and save what you have got left or else watch as we bite your (unprotected) ass off"

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Re: India vs Pak China : Can we win?

Postby shiv » 18 Jun 2010 21:35

sachin_b_k wrote:Hmm.. it seems some of the "stelwarts" on this site are more interested in scoring points


Well being a newbie always makes one think of an old timer's perspective as scoring points.

Have you done an net search of scenarios on the conflict you are asking about? Is the information already there?

If you look through BR you will find it is not there. When information is not available anywhere and you have a doubt, you ask a question. If you have a question, the place for it is the miscellaneous questions thread.

For a thread to survive and be useful - you have to provide some information and show that you are not shooting and scooting "Lets discuss 2 front war". Where is your homework? Everyone knows a 2 front war is possible. It was expected to occur during the 1965 war. India has always taken into account the possibility that a 2 front war may occur. India has always taken diplomatic and military measures for a 2 front war. That is all recorded history. Known for decades.

What do YOU think? What sort of war would Pakistan impose on us? What would compel China to join?Can we win. If yes, why? if no why? What have you done other than getting a doubt and just dumping it on here?

Come on. Don't hide behind rhetoric. You have put in no work yourself and you want the to see others doing some homework for you. This is a huge subject.

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Re: Are We Ready for a Two-front War ?

Postby NRao » 18 Jun 2010 21:38

Oh boy.

Are we ready for a two-front war?

Yes, India is ready for a two front war.

What would be the cost and result, is perhaps the real question. And, the more nebulous question, how would India execute such a two-front war.

On China using 'hood to do things against India - the sun rises from the East. What else is new?

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Re: Are We Ready for a Two-front War ?

Postby NRao » 18 Jun 2010 21:39

Follow on:

IS there a window for Pakistan AND China to execute such a two-front war?

I think so. And, that window is closing pretty fast. IMHO, a two-front war can occur in about the next 5ish years and will decline rapidly after 2015.

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Re: India vs Pak China : Can we win?

Postby Rahul M » 18 Jun 2010 21:40

ParGha wrote:The fear is not "unfounded"; the PK+CH combine as a threat to India has been a reality since the 1960s.

However it has not been realistically presented in this thread, so it is hard to discuss specifics.

To illustrate it, let us consider the excellent point raised by Singha on what constitutes winning and losing in this conflict. It will be a huge victory for Pakistan if it could take and hold J&K... but if as an outcome of this loss, India abandons its non-alignedness and joins the US as a full fledged strategic partner (a la Japan or UK) it would be an unmitigated strategic debacle for the Chinese. OTOH even if IN beats the PK into bloody submission, if the PKs have extracted huge military, economic and diplomatic toll on IN... and CH gets off light and steals a march on IN in a vital resources/influence race elsewhere, it is a victory for the CH. You see where this is going?

In fact this point is - and must be - the cornerstone of India's strategy to PREVENT such a combine from going to war. Time would be better spent discussing how it can be done on another thread.

ParGha, for the moment please ignore the fact whether this thread has been set up perfectly or not. we all know what is being spoken about though we may not agree on the realism of it or the causes.
kindly proceed on the assumption that the thread has been set up perfectly and do discuss specifics starting out on that assumption.

_____________________
to summarise, let us assume that both china and pak decide to coordinate hostile actions against us, leaving the 'why?' to strategy forum.

the questions that need to be asked would be
a) what would be their possible (added later: military) objectives ?
b) how would they seek to achieve these objectives ?
c) what can we do to counter their moves ?

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Re: Are We Ready for a Two-front War ?

Postby NRao » 18 Jun 2010 21:42

And, I would like to add:

d) What can India do to prevent such a scenario?

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Re: Are We Ready for a Two-front War ?

Postby negi » 18 Jun 2010 21:47

Well given our pusillanimity when it comes to pulling the trigger , we can very well expect small probing attacks akin to Kargil, Nathu-La and Chola incidents i.e. to start with taking over the key heights and passes and hoping to catch the IA off guard .

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Re: Are We Ready for a Two-front War ?

Postby Rahul M » 18 Jun 2010 21:49

shiv ji, I understand you do not like this thread. I would still appreciate it if you do not try to wreck it.

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Re: Are We Ready for a Two-front War ?

Postby Rahul M » 18 Jun 2010 21:51

NRao wrote:And, I would like to add:

d) What can India do to prevent such a scenario?

yes, but that would be in the realm of geo-strategy etc, no ? let's stick to mil for this forum.

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Re: Are We Ready for a Two-front War ?

Postby shiv » 18 Jun 2010 21:57

Frankly - the idea of a two front war cannot be discussed in the absence of some very sound reasoning as to why China and Pakistan would be so profoundly stupid as to start a conventional war when they both know that it could escalate and become nuclear. The scale of a combined Paki-Chinese offensive cannot be "probing". It has to aim for certain quick objectives. Than means build up of forces for months and readying of nuclear weapons by India.

Some probing by China and a half assed Paki attack are all scenarios we have already seen and are well prepared for it.

If India needs to be defeated it must go nuclear from day 1. Otherwise both countries are simply playing a game that will make them both cry.

Or else we can have a long drawn out tamasha of India's weaknesses and how India will not use nukes, be Gandhian etc. You know the answer to that one. India will lose that 2 front war in that case.

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Re: Are We Ready for a Two-front War ?

Postby shiv » 18 Jun 2010 22:04

Rahul M wrote:shiv ji, I understand you do not like this thread. I would still appreciate it if you do not try to wreck it.


Rahulji. It is not a matter of not liking it. I think the idea is good if we can be serious. but there is no seriousness here. Starting of the thread is ad hoc. Opinions are thrown in an ad hoc manner. No references. No insights. Nothing. Simply "Lets discuss invading the moon"

Even in the 1960s I have read articles that lamented that Indian soldiers might have to fight a 2 front war and how they are hampered by the lack of nuclear cover. People have thought about this for ages. Nuclear weapons are intrinsic to the defense of India in such a situation.
Last edited by shiv on 18 Jun 2010 22:08, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: Are We Ready for a Two-front War ?

Postby darshhan » 18 Jun 2010 22:07

This thread actually makes sense.Wonder why anyone didn't think of it before.

There is one scenarion which is very much possible.Even if China does not launch direct military strike simultaneously on India in close coordination with Pakistan, it can definitely start massive cyber attacks against India in support of pakistani offensive.It can also undertake electronic warfare missions against India(I do not have much idea about electronic warfare but I know for sure that Chinese do have an active electronic warfare program.They even have portable electronic warfare devices which can be used by special forces).

Also you can bet that Chinese surveillance assets will certainly be used to support Pakis.For eg.Chinese AWACS supporting pakistani air force.

There is also a concern about the massive amount of chinese equipment that has been installed in our telecommunication infrastructure.If Chinese have managed to install backdoor software/hardware along with these devices then a significant portion of our telecom network has been compromised.It will definitely be used to snoop on us and in the worst circumstances the compromised section of our network can also be shut down.

However Chinese will only do all this when Pakis take permission from them to attack India.If Pakis become too adventurous and forget to prostrate before chinese and ask for permission then I doubt Chinese will help them.The reason being while both countries would like to put India down, China has other priorities too.Furthermore China is not as suicidal as Pakistan.Also China will likely figure that any conventional war between India and Pakistan might turn in a nuclear confrontation and hence stay out of the conflict.

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Re: Are We Ready for a Two-front War ?

Postby Rahul M » 18 Jun 2010 22:26

shiv wrote:Frankly - the idea of a two front war cannot be discussed in the absence of some very sound reasoning as to why China and Pakistan would be so profoundly stupid as to start a conventional war when they both know that it could escalate and become nuclear.

shiv ji, that would depend on the objectives isn't it ? if the objective for pak is to teach India a lesson(and hence enhance H&D) + grab some mountain peaks and for china it is to show India her place aka teach India a lesson + tawang(say) it could well be that India would stay completely conventional.
The scale of a combined Paki-Chinese offensive cannot be "probing". It has to aim for certain quick objectives. Than means build up of forces for months and readying of nuclear weapons by India.
it doesn't have to be probing, it can well be hammer and anvil, as has been long forecasted. like in the days of swords and shields, infantry(pak) would pin the enemy(India) down while the cavalry(china) would attack. pakistan need not even fight the battle and vice versa with roles reversed.
whatever be the chances, any number of worst-case scenarios can be thought of where a 2 front-war takes place. it pays to be prepared for the worst.

lastly, that the thread hasn't been set up properly is not really a valid excuse to close it down. I agree, it wasn't. that doesn't mean the topic isn't worthy of discussion. I had in fact expected someone like you to see past the minor irritants and take the initiative to set the agenda.

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Re: Are We Ready for a Two-front War ?

Postby ParGha » 18 Jun 2010 22:32

Rahul, if we don't know the WHY, we should also assume we don't know the WHAT and the HOW either. The WHAT may range anywhere from simply capturing and holding a few districts in J&K to going all the way to Delhi and Red Fort (a mountain cannot hold two tigers). You can only address what you can do about it.

The primary focus will be on breaking this combine, from the begining to end. Since we don't know WHY they have combined, let us generally say conciliatory gestures, concessions and bribery of appropriate types can be tried on CH to leave PK in the lurch. When it escalates to a shooting war, the first focus will be on isolating a sizable PK formation (plus some) and completely annihilating it - not rendering it combat ineffective, simply totally destroying it. It serves two fold purpose: to tell the PKs that the nature of fighting India has changed, India may or may not win this war but sure as hell there won't be a PK left to feed on the carrion. The second purpose is to implicitly ask the CH if such warfare is acceptable to a nation under One Child Policy. Repeat as necessary.

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Re: Are We Ready for a Two-front War ?

Postby shiv » 18 Jun 2010 22:36

The least I would expect from a thread starter is some background info on what is already known in the public domain.

http://www.idsa.in/idsacomments/Nuclear ... med_290110
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/indi ... 392683.cms
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/NEWS ... 769593.cms

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Re: Are We Ready for a Two-front War ?

Postby shiv » 18 Jun 2010 22:42

Rahul M wrote:shiv ji, that would depend on the objectives isn't it ? if the objective for pak is to teach India a lesson(and hence enhance H&D) + grab some mountain peaks and for china it is to show India her place aka teach India a lesson + tawang(say) it could well be that India would stay completely conventional.


Isn't this OT for the thread?
to summarise, let us assume that both china and pak decide to coordinate hostile actions against us, leaving the 'why?' to strategy forum.


Besides how will India know these objectives? Pakistan and China are hardly likely to announce "We will stop after we do xyz'

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Re: Are We Ready for a Two-front War ?

Postby shiv » 18 Jun 2010 22:56

This is a huge subject. In very simple terms a two front war is like fighting a one front war on two fronts so if you have the men and material to do that you can do it. If you don't have the men and material you will lose. If you are losing and you have nukes and don't use them - you deserve to lose.

The only meat in this topic is why and how such a war can be set up and how India can avoid or thwart such a situation or make it very difficult for one or both sides.

What if India defeats Pakistan conventionally and nukes China

What if India holds China or concedes some territory to China and defeats and nukes Pakistan. Will China nuke India?

What if India comprehensively kicks combined China Pakistan ass with conventional weapons? Will they have the guts to turn it nuclear? Are they ready for defeat?

All this depends on the aims and objectives and geopolitical scenario. What are the likely reasons for China to coordinate an attack with Pakistan? Would this just be plain vanilla stupidity or can some intelligent planning be somehow attributed to this? Unless someone is willing to go into this what is hoped to be gained?

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Re: Are We Ready for a Two-front War ?

Postby Rahul M » 18 Jun 2010 23:02

pargha, IF a war takes place do we expect the chinis and pakis to telegram us their strategic objectives so that it becomes easier for us to predict their military moves ?
what happened in kargil, did musharraf call vajpayee and tell him their strategic objectives ?

clearly not, we would rather have to guess their military objectives from deployment patterns and then build up the strategic objective bit by bit from that, in fact we would continue to do that long after the war would be over. even now, let alone us, even the pakis seem to be mystified about the strategic objectives of kargil adventure.

also, we are assuming that strategic choices would drive the tactical ones, it could well be the opposite. the strategic decisions would just provide a very general outline (go to war with India and do damage) and the tactical opportunities will drive the major decisions.

so, again, let's forget the why and concentrate on the how.

shiv ji, your Q and my answer are both OT. :)

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Re: Are We Ready for a Two-front War ?

Postby negi » 18 Jun 2010 23:13

^ Makes sense those reports of Chinese incursions perhaps are testing how alert our boys are on the border a pass or a hillock captured without much loss of men and material is definitely something which PRC or even TSP might give a try for they know from the past that in a worst case scenario they might only loose some men and material in process , India would be satisfied with just getting the lost territory back after than it will be all Unkil and UN's dog and pony show.

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Re: Are We Ready for a Two-front War ?

Postby ParGha » 18 Jun 2010 23:14

SachinBK,
1. Do you know how the Russians view the Chinese in a strategic context?
Hint: Think Yuan, the Dynasty, not currency or subs.
2. Are the Chinese really strong enough to prevent the US from intervening on behalf of India?
Hint: The Nazis were a lot stronger vis a vis the US, but it didn't prevent lend-lease and Yankee volunteers in BCF.

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Re: Are We Ready for a Two-front War ?

Postby negi » 18 Jun 2010 23:17

ParGha wrote:2. Are the Chinese really strong enough to prevent the US from intervening on behalf of India?

Err mm when was it last that Unkil woke up on the wrong side of the bed ?
:lol:

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Re: Are We Ready for a Two-front War ?

Postby Rahul M » 18 Jun 2010 23:19

could we please NOT have all these international relations/geo-strategy discussions here ? we already have the hot-air forum for that.

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Re: Are We Ready for a Two-front War ?

Postby ParGha » 18 Jun 2010 23:57

Rahul M wrote:also, we are assuming that strategic choices would drive the tactical ones, it could well be the opposite. the strategic decisions would just provide a very general outline (go to war with India and do damage) and the tactical opportunities will drive the major decisions. so, again, let's forget the why and concentrate on the how.


The Chinese don't fight like that. They plan clearly and objectively to meet their strategic goals. In 1962, they invaded, withdrew and consolidated almost exactly as their logistical schedule dictated. The Paks did not even plan beyond their initial objectives (and missupplied even that).

With the Chinese you have to know the WHY. No, they may not telegram - but they will publish their political obectives (at least their cover story) through all possible media before start of the military campaign, as their new WZC doctrine dictates. Based on how they define themselves, it is politically imperative for them to make such statements ("we will teach you a lesson"). It also opens up a dialog: instead of flaring up ("who are you to teach us anything"), a counter can be thus started to prevent a conflict ("you lesson is incorrect, watch us teach your protege first - you can critique it later"). India, in fact, did use this strategy in 1965 (a war, according to Jung, that was incited by Mao as a two front war that GOI deftly deflected). But in 21st century, India will have to take action in hours - not weeks - and that's where the challenge lies.

Edit: author name corrected to Jung Chang (and Halliday).
Last edited by ParGha on 19 Jun 2010 01:17, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Are We Ready for a Two-front War ?

Postby Manish_Sharma » 19 Jun 2010 00:24

I confess from the day one at BR I wanted this thread but never had the courage or knowledge to start it.

Some points on the sea route (China's achilles heel?) vulnerabilities to be exploited:

1. How many China bound oil tankers are there in the sea on average most of the time?

2. How much damage to chinki economy by destruction of Large/medium/small tanker?

3. Chinese would surely factor in safety of these tankers, how?
a) By coordinating the timing of attack with tankers' movement (already slipped through Malacca Straits)
b) By having them escorted by their navy (if they have capacity?)

4. Their Coco Island listening station would be surely taken out.

5. What would be indian capacity to cross malacca straits, sunda straits and take out their merchant/oil ships?

6. Shankar's idea of having a group of 30 sukhois with IL tanker + AWACS instead of ADS to fly over to south china sea and take out their ships/assets. (Perhaps this point maybe OT for this thread, as jingoes will only focus on war "with what we have", not "should".

7. Our stock of weapons/tools/spares/fuel to go on with this two pronged war. I mean for the last kargil war armed forces were short of even artillery which was supplied by Israeli and Russki brothers helped us out from their stocks.

8. Whatever weaponery we have even by 2020, Vivek Ahuja has proved conclusively by his scenarios how weak we are due to pathetic joining of roads to NE, which is going to be a nightmare.

9. So the against Porkis borders would be:
a.) Gujarat
b.) Rajasthan
c.) Punjab
d.) JK

against China
a.) Sikkim
b.) AP
c.) Nagaland [Myamar side]

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Re: Are We Ready for a Two-front War ?

Postby Anthony Hines » 19 Jun 2010 00:36

@ParGha:

Could you please provide any more information about the 2 front war incited by Mao in 1965? reply much appreciated..


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