Indian Economy: News and Discussion (Jan 1 2010)

[satyam]

April-June direct taxes up 15.49%

http://www.business-standard.com/india/ ... /100444/on


Services grow at a blistering pace
http://mintmoney.livemint.com/mark-to-m ... ring-pace/

[satyam]

Seven Indian cos in Asia's top 20 life science firms: survey
http://www.business-standard.com/india/ ... /100475/on

[Suraj]

The monsoon is shaping up very well. A good harvest will boost agricultural GDP, which already has the low base of last year to build upon:
Monsoon covers entire Indian nine days ahead of schedule

India’s annual monsoon, crucial for a rebound in farm output after last year’s drought, has rapidly advanced to cover the entire country, boosting crop sowing and likely tempering food price inflation.

The weather office has forecast widespread rains in the cane- and rice-growing regions in the north and in the oilseed-growing areas in the central and western parts of India.

Rainfall was 16 per cent below normal in June, when the monsoon did not advance beyond central India for two weeks, but heavy showers in the past week have narrowed the deficit to 13 per cent.

“The monsoon has covered the entire country by about nine days ahead of schedule,” said B P Yadav, director at the India Meteorological Department.

The revival of monsoon rains, the main source of water for 60 per cent Indian farms, will lift soybean and groundnut crops in the world’s top vegetable oils importer and help the cane crop in the Uttar Pradesh state, which produces half the cane in the world’s top sugar consumer.

The weather office expects total June-September rainfall to be normal despite the June deficit.

Private equity investments up threefold in first half

Private equity (PE) investments are back. In the first half of calendar year 2010, total PE investments touched $4,571 million (around Rs 21,380 crore) across 138 deals (excluding real estate). This was a three-fold jump over the $1,508 million (around Rs 7,057 crore) invested in 111 deals during the same period last year, said a study by Venture Intelligence, a research service focused on PE and merger and acquisition (M&A) activity in India.

In the quarter ended June 30, PE firms invested about $2,364 million (around Rs 11,063 crore) in 67 deals. This was 2.6 times more than in this period last year (which saw $890 million being invested in 51 deals) and also higher than the quarter prior to that ($2,207million in 71 deals). With this, the amount invested by PE firms in India has climbed for the fifth successive quarter.

[Prem]

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/07/07/busin ... .html?_r=1
India Expands Role as Drug Producer

India’s drug industry — on track to grow about 13 percent this year, to just over $24 billion — was once notorious for making cheap knockoffs of Western medicines and selling them in developing countries. But India, seasoned in the basics of medicine making, is now starting to take on a more mainstream role in the global drug industry, as a result of recent strengthening of patent law here and cost pressures on name-brand drug makers in the West. And while the Indian industry has had quality-control problems, it nonetheless benefits from growing wariness about the reliability of ingredients from that other historically low-cost drug provider — China. The United States is India’s top export customer for drugs. India is becoming a “base for manufacturing for the global market,” said Ajay G. Piramal, the chairman of Piramal Healthcare, a drug maker based in Mumbai. Eventually, in Mr. Piramal’s perhaps overly optimistic forecast, only the very first and very last steps of the business — molecular drug discovery and marketing — will be run by the West’s global drug giants. Those companies “don’t create much value” in the steps in between, he said

India exported about 384 billion rupees ($8.3 billion) in drugs and services for the pharmaceutical industry in the 2008-9 fiscal year, according to government figures, up 25 percent from the year before

[satyam]

FEE during the period January-June 2010 were $ 6842 million with a growth rate of 36.6 % as compared to FEE of $ 5007 million with a negative growth of 21.6 % during January - June 2009 over the corresponding period of 2008, the statement added.

http://netindian.in/news/2010/07/06/000 ... als-8-june

[Nihat]

Inflation seems headed back to the bad old days of the 80s. Why should interest rates not follow the trend upwards as well?

I think the RBI is out of options as interest rates will have to rise further to tame inflation. But the government can get more growth by making progress on long pending but politically difficult reforms (like oil deregulation).

but main drivers of inflation are fuel and food , how does raising rates help that - just creates liquidity issues in a volatile market.

[Katare]

Nihat is right IMO.
Last year inflation was close to zero so this year on such a low base inflation would look worse than it is. Another thing that we need to look at is whether inflation is creeping up, down or is it stable month over month. Inflation is stable for last several months of this year, so the change in number is mostly because of base effect.

Anyhow our macro policy framework (read political setup) doesn't support a stable low inflation low interest rate regime like in China or OECD countries.

[Prem]

EGA Introduces First Ever U.S.-Traded Small Cap India ETF

Now we can add India to that list. New York-based Emerging Global Advisors, the firm perhaps best known for its sector-specific emerging markets ETFs, announced today the launch of the INDXX India Small Cap ETF (SCIN). SCIN becomes the fourth ETF offering pure play exposure to the Indian equity market, but is the first to focus exclusively on the country’s small cap equities. Robert Holderith, President and CEO of EGShares, said in a press release:
We’re very excited about launching the world’s first India Small Cap ETF. We believe that until today, India exposure through ETFs has been limited and the offerings have been very similar. With almost zero overlap in holdings vs the current ETF offerings and a meaningfully different industry allocation, our fund attempts to provide exposure to some of the fastest growing companies in one of the world’s fastest growing economies.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/213455- ... -india-etf

[Prem]

GE looks to cut the percentage of IT work it sends to India

BANGALORE: The Indian IT industry’s 20-year relationship with General Electric—its oldest and perhaps its only billion-dollar customer—has been a love-hate affair. The amount of work the company gives out makes it hard for Indian IT companies to ignore it. But the terms it demands and the way it works make them wish they could. A few weeks ago, a group of GE’s empanelled IT vendors logged on to an hour-long conference call with the company. At the end of it, they found out that all the fuss by the American company was to invite bids for a one-person project for a subsidiary in India. “GE is buying IT services like airline tickets—it’s now about the cheapest supplier,” says a senior executive with a large tech firm that is exploring new business from GE. “Your margins from GE will be half of what you would make from other top customers.”
For such reasons, most large Indian IT firms are uncomfortable doing business with GE. In 1995, Infosys even annulled its contract with GE, citing unacceptable conditions, in spite of earning 38% of its revenues from the company at the time.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/di ... 02x4456700

[abhishek_sharma]

India to grow at 9.50% in 2010: IMF

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/Biz/ ... 141787.cms

[satyam]

Indirect tax mop-up zooms 43% to Rs 56,930 cr in Q1

http://www.business-standard.com/india/ ... /100732/on

[James B]

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/07/07/busin ... .html?_r=1
India Expands Role as Drug Producer

India’s drug industry — on track to grow about 13 percent this year, to just over $24 billion — was once notorious for making cheap knockoffs of Western medicines and selling them in developing countries. But India, seasoned in the basics of medicine making, is now starting to take on a more mainstream role in the global drug industry, as a result of recent strengthening of patent law here and cost pressures on name-brand drug makers in the West. And while the Indian industry has had quality-control problems, it nonetheless benefits from growing wariness about the reliability of ingredients from that other historically low-cost drug provider — China. The United States is India’s top export customer for drugs. India is becoming a “base for manufacturing for the global market,” said Ajay G. Piramal, the chairman of Piramal Healthcare, a drug maker based in Mumbai. Eventually, in Mr. Piramal’s perhaps overly optimistic forecast, only the very first and very last steps of the business — molecular drug discovery and marketing — will be run by the West’s global drug giants. Those companies “don’t create much value” in the steps in between, he said

India exported about 384 billion rupees ($8.3 billion) in drugs and services for the pharmaceutical industry in the 2008-9 fiscal year, according to government figures, up 25 percent from the year before

Just today I was talking with a Contract Research Organization (CRO) head based in Switzerland with an experience of 23 years in Pharma field. He was saying that future of Pharma is India. He said that not only India is leader in generic drugs, but Indian Pharma companies have entered in a big way in innovating new drugs and giving good competition to existing MNCs. So, one can expect that there will a lot of takeovers of Indian Pharmas by these MNCs in the near future. He also mentioned that India is in advantageous position to other Asian countries due to its English speaking population. Never did he mentioned about China being a Pharma leader though he mentioned that South Korea is doing well in Asia. Slowly, world is recognizing the importance of India and are betting on it a big time.

[ramana]

JamesB, The future field is pharmaco-genomics. The coming together of molecular modelling with gene sequences i.e. lots of computing power.

An UYT was yapping non stop last weekend.

[James B]

JamesB, The future field is pharmaco-genomics. The coming together of molecular modelling with gene sequences i.e. lots of computing power.

An UYT was yapping non stop last weekend.

Saar, replied here.

http://forums.bharat-rakshak.com/viewto ... 64#p902464

[Prem]

Why India Is the Preferred Destination Among Emerging Markets
http://seekingalpha.com/article/213833- ... ng-markets

I skipped over India on purpose because that's the emerging market I want to talk about today. Recently, I was asked an interesting question by an investor that wanted to know about an emerging market that offers China-esque growth prospects without the volatility of China or Brazil. For my
The merits of each India ETF is a topic for another day and one I promise to address, but for today I want focus on why India just may be the preferred destination among emerging markets. No, India hasn't sported the GDP growth that China has, but from 2003-2008, India's average growth rate was 8.5%. That's still pretty darn good and a lot better than what we'd get from most developed markets. India is on track for GDP growth of 8%-8.5% this year and the country is aiming for 10% in the coming years.
The Wall Street Journal recently implied that 10% may be too lofty a goal for India, the second-fastest growing major economy in the world. To that I say so what? Even if 10% growth isn't in the cards, India will likely post annual growth of at least 8% for the next five years. Again, you're not going to get that kind of growth from the U.S., Japan or Europe.
The biggest point of attraction with investing in India is what you DON'T have to worry about. By that I mean a large part of the risk in investing in emerging markets is political. In the developing world, political regimes can shift at a moment's notice because most emerging markets aren't democracies. India is. In fact, India is the largest democracy in the world.

[Suraj]

Fund flows into India hit highest level in 11 weeks

Global flows into India hit their highest levels in 11 weeks, as investors responded to the arrival of monsoon in the country, according to EPFR Global. Overall, going into the second week of July, global equity markets were staging a modest recovery, as investors shrugged off fears of a double-dip recession and went bargain-hunting.

India ranks second in global manufacturing competitiveness

Code: Select all

1    China  	10
2 	India 	8.15
3 	South Korea 	6.79
4 	United States 	5.84
5 	Brazil 	5.41
6 	Japan 	5.11

Direct tax collection to double after DTC, GST

Direct tax collections in the country are likely to double after the proposed Direct Tax Code (DTC) and the Goods and Service Tax (GST) regime come into effect, a top government official has said.

"We are moving towards a scenario where I think there will be a substantial increase in collection of taxes when DTC and GST will be in place. GST will help us in direct tax collection," Central Board of Direct Taxes (CBDT) Chairman S S N Moorthy said.

RBI to permit currency options trade from next week

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is likely to allow trading of currency options on bourses within a week, according to a senior RBI official. “Maybe another week or so (for the announcement),” RBI Chief General Manager Foreign Exchange Department (Trade) G Jaganmohan Rao said here today.

“As of now, they (currency options) are over-the-counter products. Soon, we will allow them on exchange platforms,” Rao said, adding that the system would be regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi). He said the decision was taken by a joint committee of the central bank and Sebi after more than a year of discussions.

Interesting link between farm sowing pattern and gold sales:
Scrap gold sales surpass fresh sales

Scrap gold sales have surpassed yellow metal sales since the monsoon reached India’s major agriculture region last week. Used gold-jewellery inflows were 5-10 per cent more than fresh gold sales in Mumbai’s Zaveri bazar last week.

Traders, however, say the trend has spread across the country. Farmers sell old jewellery in the beginning of the monsoon every year. Old jewellery sales gave surpassed sales of new gold as prices are at a record high at over Rs.18,000 per kg.

“Usually, farmers sell their gold to buy high-yielding seeds, fertilisers and equipment. Hence, depending on their financial position, many sell their holding during the sowing season between July and August and buy fresh gold if the harvest is good and remunerative. This is a normal trend with gold sales in India,” said Bhargav Vaidya, an analyst with B N Vaidya & Associates, a Mumbai-based research firm.

During monsoon, the sale of fresh gold commonly declines because this is not the time for weddings or other festivities.

[abhishek_sharma]

Devil's Advocate: Montek on Left, Kamal Nath

http://ibnlive.in.com/news/devils-advoc ... 429-3.html

[satyam]

May IIP at 11.5%

http://www.business-standard.com/india/ ... /101003/on

[Nihat]

May IIP at 11.5%

http://www.business-standard.com/india/ ... /101003/on

It's all about the base year impact which only represents if we have wethered the recession storm. The true growth rates in Industry will only be visible from next year.

[satyam]

Deleted

[Vipul]

New inflation index likely from Aug 14.

Plan panel for single set of poverty numbers.

[amit]

India ranks second in global manufacturing competitiveness

Code: Select all

1    China  	10
2 	India 	8.15
3 	South Korea 	6.79
4 	United States 	5.84
5 	Brazil 	5.41
6 	Japan 	5.11

Re Suraj's post, for anyone interested, this is what the Deloitte report had to say about India:

Perhaps more surprising is that India is now
positioned at number two—and gaining an even
stronger foothold on that position over the next
five years.

India’s rich talent pool of scientists,
researchers, and engineers as well as its large,
well-educated English-speaking workforce and
democratic regime make it an attractive destination
for manufacturers. Since the mid-1990s, India’s
software industry has escalated to new heights
and post-economic liberation has also opened a
pathway to unprecedented market opportunities for
Indian manufacturing. Moreover, beyond low-cost,
Indian manufacturers gained experience in quality
improvement and Japanese principles of quality
management, with the largest number of Deming
Award winners outside of Japan.{It's good see that this and other facts are finally getting noticed, by these phoren experts - like it or not they shape public perception in the West}

The country is also rapidly expanding its capabilities in engineering
design and development and embedded software
development, which form an integral part of many
modern-day manufactured products.

The importance of India to manufacturing executives
around the world underscores two important points.

First, strength in research and development—
paired with engineering, software, and technology
integration abilities—are viewed by global executives
as a vital element of the talent-driven and innovative
manufacturing enterprise of the 21st century.
Second, manufacturing executives increasingly view
India as a place where they can design, develop and
manufacture innovative products for sale in local as
well as in global markets.21 These factors explain,
in part, India’s rise from a low-cost, “back office”
location to a country that is well-positioned to be an
active participant in the entire value chain—as well
as it now being viewed by many executives as an
integral part of their global manufacturing enterprise
and location strategy.

Another interesting quote later on in the report:

But while lower costs may get a nation to the
table as a viable global manufacturing competitor,
these findings drive home the point that having
a capacity for innovation driven by a plentiful and
talented workforce at all levels is what will ultimately
differentiate the long-term winners in this race.

This assertion is amply demonstrated by developing
nations’—China, India, and Korea—ascension to
the top spot in the index.

Unlike their less successful
emerging market counterparts, they entered the
competitive game through lower-cost labor, but
rapidly moved up the manufacturing value chain
toward high-end and highly technical products.

For anyone interested, the full report can be downloaded here

[RamaY]

Interested BRFites.

I came to know that recently the quota system in world bodies such as WB, IMF etc is changed to "population-based" instead of earlier equal-quota for all countries. This change results in multi-fold increase of available opportunities for Indian Nationals.

It would be good to have few BRF-jingos in these world bodies

All the best!

[aqkhan]

The jury has given its verdict: the rupee will retain its Indian character with an international flavour. The five-member panel has chosen IIT post-graduate D Udaya Kumar’s design from among five shortlisted symbols and recommended it for Cabinet approval.

http://www.indianexpress.com/news/iit-p ... ol/646761/

[Neshant]

Its a reasonable choice. I thought it looked rather plain at first but I'm beginning to warm up to it.

The symbol looks sufficiently unique from other symbols out there and its rooted in the nation's culture.

I tested it out on paper, it can be written in 2 stokes of the pen which is good which means it can be written fast. It takes a little practice not to smudge up the horizonal bar in the middle with the top or bottom of the hook when writing it in speed. but its doable if the hook is made slightly bigger and the tail slightly shorter.

There is some danger that it might be confused with the number 2 if the horizontal bar is not pronounced but that's the only down side.

Now its important India enforce its use otherwise this design competition will be a wasted exercise. All govt forms, all financial companies, all accounting, all currency exchange and transactions, all software and all domestic and foreign companies should be using it. That will get it set the stage for its eventual recognition as a global currency 20 years or so from now.

[Singha]

is the top flat bar needed? just the upright 2 with the bar across middle would permit faster writing. would make it look like soviet hammer and sickle though

[aqkhan]

There is some danger that it might be confused with the number 2 if the horizontal bar is not pronounced but that's the only down side.

It should not be confused with the number 2 at all. The lower stem in number 2 is horizontal, while in the symbol, the lower stem is inclined at a 45 degree angle.

[Dileep]

I Like it!!

[derkonig]

It does look like the hammer & sickle

[Singha]

well in many indic languages (like assamese), the 2 is written in that upright birdlike fashion.

[kmkraoind]

I really like it, seems to be a blend of English letter "R" and Devanagari "ru." Hope WKKs does not pick holes in it.

[Gagan]

I like it - it is uniquely Indian.

There are other countries that have Rupee (and Rupiah) as their currency.

But this is uniquely Indian.

[amit]

I like it - it is uniquely Indian.

There are other countries that have Rupee (and Rupiah) as their currency.

But this is uniquely Indian.

It would be interesting to see if the Sri Lankan Rupee eventually adopts this symbol. Like the $ is used by so many countries.

But I foresee a lot of opposition from Western countries to adopting this symbol. Notice very few people use the Yen symbol for the Japanese currency.

One practical disadvantage is that it's unlikely that the symbol will be incorporated into keyboard short cuts. Since almost everything is done via a computer keyboard that might prove a challenge in popularising the symbol via media stories.

For example if a news report has the figure 1,000, it would still be either written as Rs1,000 or 1,000 Indian rupees.

I think it will take time to get it accepted.

[Tanaji]

is the top flat bar needed? just the upright 2 with the bar across middle would permit faster writing. would make it look like soviet hammer and sickle though

As per the artist, the top flat bar is to indicate "Indianess" , since it is similar to Devanagari script, which is the only script to have a top flat bar (his words)

[Dileep]

Question about the pen strokes: When something is written in devanagari, we were taught to write all the letters, and then draw the line on top to link them. The same system is followed when writing a single letter.

So, this one needs three strokes. Start from top left, go clockwise to make the sickle, pull down and right for the handle. Then, draw the top line first, and then the strikeover line.

[SwamyG]

^^^
I agree. For Indian folks, who write from left to right, we would end up with 3 strokes. How many of us write the number "5" with one stroke (it would have to start from right) vs two strokes? My parents who have exposure to devanagari script were able to immediately identify it with र. I think most of the Indians would readily associate it with being Indic in character.

[Singha]

key question will GOI slap a blanket order on all keyboard makers and importers that ALL keyboards used in India need to have this symbol and likewise stuff like word processor sw.

[RoyG]

phew...not bad at all

[aqkhan]

If GOI starts using it and Indian corporations start using it, it will eventually be picked up by software and keyboard makers very soon. I doubt GoI has to enforce it.

[vera_k]

Will the new symbol be acceptable in the South? Or is it liable to run into anti-Hindi sentiments?