Indian Economy: News and Discussion (Jan 1 2010)

satyam · Post by **satyam** » 19 Jul 2010 14:08

The net investment by overseas investors into domestic stocks reached Rs 39,360 crore ($8.6 billion) till July 16

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/mar ... 182969.cms

satyam · Post by **satyam** » 19 Jul 2010 15:12

June exports up 30%,Imports for the month rose 23 per cent.

http://www.business-standard.com/india/ ... /101938/on

shynee · Post by **shynee** » 20 Jul 2010 03:53

India: hot economy brings private equity to the boil

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 20 Jul 2010 03:56

Interesting data on actual food production during the drought hit 2009-10 fiscal year:
Grain production estimate for 2009-10 raised to 218.20 mt

The government today revised upward its estimate for foodgrain production at 218.20 million tonnes (mt) in the 2009-10 crop year. The upward revision came even as the estimates for output of rice, wheat and pulses were revised downward for the year.

Even as the foodgrain production in 2009-10 is expected to surpass its earlier estimate, it continues to be lower than the output of 234.47 mt achieved in 2008-09. The fourth advance estimates has lowered the output forecast for rice, wheat, pulses and oilseeds but had revised upwards the projection for coarse cereals.

The rice production is likely to be around 89.13 mt in 2009-10, lower than the earlier projection of 89.31 mt and much lower than the record 99.18 mt achieved in 2008-09.

The sharp fall in rice output was mainly due to the severe drought in 2009 that hit more than half the country. Though the wheat output is seen marginally down from the earlier estimate at 80.71 mt, it is still higher than the record output of 80.68 mt in the previous year.

Production of pulses is also pegged at 14.59 mt, lower than the earlier forecast of 14.77 mt, but higher than the previous year’s output of 14.57 mt.

Similarly, oilseed production for 2009-10 is likely to be 23.94 mt, lower than the earlier projection of 25.41 mt. This is also lower than the previous year’s actual production of 27.72 mt.

In contrast, the output of coarse cereals is likely to have improved to 23.63 mt in 2009-10 from the earlier estimate of 23.2 mt. Nevertheless, the output is still lower than the production of 28.54 mt in 2008-09. Coarse cereals had fared well last year as they are less dependent on monsoon rains.

The sugarcane output is likely to marginally improve to 277.75 mt, much lower than the previous year’s production of 285.03 mt.

Among non-food crops, cotton production is seen to have risen to 24.93 million bales in 2009-10 from 22.28 million bales in 2008-09. One bale of cotton contains 170 kg.

The jute output is likely to have increased to 10.70 million bales (one bale of jute is equal to 180 kg) in 2009-10 from 9.63 million bales in the previous year.

Production data from Nokia's Chennai plant - approx 80 million phones/year:
Nokia Resumes Production at India Plant

Nokia--which has about 8,000 employees at the plant--has been grappling with labor issues for almost a year now.

In January, operations at the plant was hit by a protest by 1,200 employees against the suspension of 60 employees. Nokia had suspended 60 employees citing misconduct.

The issue was later resolved after talks with its labor union, though the suspension, pending inquiry, stayed. The company has now offered to revoke the suspension order of all the employees.

In August, employees at the plant had struck work for 10 hours, seeking higher wages.

Production at the Chennai plant--which exports mobile handsets across the globe--had in April crossed 350 million since its inception four years ago.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 21 Jul 2010 00:12

Centre, states to meet tomorrow on GST

Union Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee will meet state finance ministers tomorrow to discuss constitutional amendments and the IT system required for rolling out the proposed GST regime next fiscal.

The Finance Minister is also likely to discuss the compensation package for states for any loss of revenue due to the implementation of this new indirect tax regime, slated for launch on April 1, 2011.

Before meeting Mukherjee, state finance ministers will meet among themselves on the same day to discuss the constitutional amendment draft prepared by the Union Law Ministry to implement GST, besides the compensation package.

State finance ministers will meet under the umbrella of the Empowered Committee, headed by West Bengal Finance Minister Asim Dasgupta.

The Finance Ministry had explored the feasibility of introducing a Fourth List (Union List, State List and Concurrent List being the other three) in the Constitution that gives both the Centre and the states equal taxation powers, as currently the Centre cannot impose indirect taxes beyond manufacturing, while the states cannot levy service tax.

However, the Fourth List concept was dropped later on.

The other option is to allow the Centre and the states to levy GST by amending the Union and State Lists.

The discussions between the Centre and states over these issues assumes importance, since implementation of GST has already been delayed by a year. Now it is slated to be implemented from April 1, 2011. But for that, a consensus between the Centre and the states is essential.

New inflation index starting August

The government will, from August, introduce a new system of inflation measurement that would cover price changes of about 250 extra items, Industry Secretary R P Singh said today.

The present monthly inflation measurement system, based on the wholesale price index (WPI), reflects the price variations of 435 items.

"The number of commodities has gone up to something like 670... Weights are accordingly arranged. This will become more reflective of inflation," Singh said. He said the new index has been vetted by experts, and the results were found to be "quite consistent".

As the WPI gets broadbased, the inflation based on it might even go up further from the annual 10.55 per cent for June.

The new index is likely to include a host of new products, including consumer goods such as mobile phones and LCD televisions.

Outdated items such as typewriters and video cassette recorders (VCRs) would not find a place in the new inflation measurement mechanism.

The base year of the new index would also be changed from 1993-94 to 2004-05.

manju · Post by **manju** » 21 Jul 2010 01:44

bart wrote:
vera_k wrote:Will the new symbol be acceptable in the South? Or is it liable to run into anti-Hindi sentiments?
It's not a problem since it is part English. South Indians have never had a problem with English, its just when only Hindi is shoved down their throats they dont like it, why should one Indian language take precedence over others (that often have older and richer heritage).

What is south indian? I think we at BR are expected to use proper terminologies when referring. I prefer refer to a language or state that has an issues with the symbol. What makes you think that a telugu or kannada speaking guy will oppose those. Using vague terms like south indian is confusing and indicates lack of insight into the issue...

naren · Post by **naren** » 21 Jul 2010 03:59

RoyG wrote:India unveils new rupee symbol

Friday 16 July 2010

It may look like a melted British Rail sign but it's hoped that a new symbol for the Indian rupee will signal India's growing economic strength ‑ and it will be coming soon to a keyboard near you.

The winning design was selected by the Indian cabinet yesterday from a shortlist of five following a national competition.

Measures are already afoot to have the rupee sign declared a computer standard, meaning it could join currencies such as the pound, dollar, euro and yen on keyboards within two years.

"The distinct symbol denotes the robustness of the Indian economy," India's information minister, Ambika Soni, said.

References to sums in rupees currently involve spelling out the word (as is the case in the Guardian's style guide) or giving it the abbreviation Rs or INRs to distinguish it from other Asian countries that use rupees or variations thereof.

"Once accepted, it will stand clear from the clutter of currencies that call themselves rupee or the rupiah," India's Telegraph reported.

The winning symbol was the work of Udaya Kumar, a lecture in design at the Indian Institute of Technology in Mumbai. Speaking to the Indian news website Rediff.com he said: "My design is based on the tricolour, with two lines at the top and white space in between. I wanted the symbol for the rupee to represent the Indian flag. It is a perfect blend of Indian and Roman letters: a capital 'R' and Devanagari 'ra' which represents rupiya, to appeal to international audiences and Indian audiences."

Michael Johnson, a director at the award-winning London-based design consultancy johnson banks, said the new symbol fitted with other currency signs but lacked imagination.

"I think it's a B or B plus. Most currency symbols follow an established route now ‑ E for euro, Y for yen, now R for rupee. You could argue that a dynamic emerging economy could have gone for something more unusual and got away with it ‑ I think in the end conservative voices prevailed."

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/ju ... pee-symbol

Yawn...people who live in their Raj glories & Mughal glories are all Bakis

ShyamSP · Post by **ShyamSP** » 21 Jul 2010 07:44

manju wrote:
bart wrote:[quote="vera_k"Will the new symbol be acceptable in the South? Or is it liable to run into anti-Hindi sentiments?/quote]

It's not a problem since it is part English. South Indians have never had a problem with English, its just when only Hindi is shoved down their throats they dont like it, why should one Indian language take precedence over others (that often have older and richer heritage).
What is south indian? I think we at BR are expected to use proper terminologies when referring. I prefer refer to a language or state that has an issues with the symbol. What makes you think that a telugu or kannada speaking guy will oppose those. Using vague terms like south indian is confusing and indicates lack of insight into the issue...

Tamil alphabets, like alphabets of most languages, are derived from brahmi so "ra" symbol is from same source. (Tamil ra turns left where as Hindi ra turns right)

South Indians never had problem with English or Hindi. It is only the Tamils have problem with Hindi and that too after Periyar movement (for last 60-70 years)

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 21 Jul 2010 09:01

India says farms key to matching China

This year, Manmohan Singh, India’s prime minister, said the priorities for his second term would be to match China’s economic growth rates and achieve peace with Pakistan. High investment and savings rates made economic growth of 10 per cent a year “an achievable target” in the medium term.At Tuesday’s meeting, Ashok Chawla, the finance secretary, said agricultural growth of 4 per cent, industrial growth of 12 per cent and services expansion at 10.5 per cent was the combination needed to reach the goal. The investment rate would have to rise to 40 per cent of GDP, and the savings rate rise from 35 per cent to 37-38 per cent.
India is forecast to grow at 8.5 per cent this year. However, some senior policymakers warn that external shocks and the performance of the global economy will determine whether India reaches double-digit economic growth

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/53b51428-9427 ... ab49a.html

naren · Post by **naren** » 21 Jul 2010 12:58

ShyamSP wrote:
What is south indian? I think we at BR are expected to use proper terminologies when referring. I prefer refer to a language or state that has an issues with the symbol. What makes you think that a telugu or kannada speaking guy will oppose those. Using vague terms like south indian is confusing and indicates lack of insight into the issue...
Tamil alphabets, like alphabets of most languages, are derived from brahmi so "ra" symbol is from same source. (Tamil ra turns left where as Hindi ra turns right)

South Indians never had problem with English or Hindi. It is only the Tamils have problem with Hindi and that too after Periyar movement (for last 60-70 years)

Less bious vs more bious here too ?

FYKI, tamils have problem when people attempt to drown their language out. Considering the fact that its one of the world's oldest surviving language, its a treasure of India, not burden. It doesnt mean hatred towards any particular language. Its defensive, not offensive. There are hindi speaking communities who have lived peacefully along side with the tamils for decades, if not centuries. Even the Periyar movement represents only a tiny portion of the tamils. Its not right to generalize.

Vipul · Post by **Vipul** » 21 Jul 2010 20:23

Govt proposes 20% GST on goods, 16% on services.

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 21 Jul 2010 20:23

The link language dhaaga could be used for discussing (dissing, half-assed generalizations) languages.

rsingh · Post by **rsingh** » 23 Jul 2010 01:59

Chaplus BBC is in overdrive mode about ues of asbestos in India. How ignorent is GOI about regulating this sector and how workers are suffering.Wole day it is India bad,dumb and bad and dumb. Why we do not have any awarness on asbestos. Any way China is biggest importer of asbestos but BBC can't say a thing bad about.

naren · Post by **naren** » 23 Jul 2010 05:38

^^^ suing the govt for asbestos related cancer is big business in the US. May be they are trying to pull off similar stunts here ?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mesothelioma#Legal_issues

Nihat · Post by **Nihat** » 23 Jul 2010 13:12

India 9th most attractive country to invest

New Delhi: India climbed four notches to be ranked the ninth most attractive investment destination in 2009 with a total foreign direct investment inflow of $ 34.61 billion, a UN report revealed on Thursday.

India attracted sizeable overseas investment despite the overall drop in such inflows due to the global financial crisis, said the World Investment Report-2010, prepared by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (Unctad).

"If the situation continues to improve, India is likely to be among the most promising investor home countries in 2010-2012, as well as the third highest economy for foreign direct investment in 2010-2012," said the report.

"In 2008, though India attracted higher foreign direct investment worth 40.42 billion, its ranking was lower at 13th. China nudged further up to second at $ 95 billion from a third place last year," said Rashmi Banga, senior economist with Unctad.

The US remained the top investment destination with inflows of $ 130 billion in 2009, followed by China, France, Hong Kong, Britain, Russia, Germany, Saudi Arabia, India and Belgium. Total inflows amounted to $ 1.11 trillion, against $ 1.77 trillion in 2008.

In 2009, Indian firms and funds also invested a lower amount of $ 14.89 billion overseas, compared to a $ 18.4 billion in 2008.

"But such outflows are expected to rebound in 2010 sustained by merger and acquisition opportunities associated with Indian and Chinese firms' persistent pursuit of natural resources and markets," the report said.

The report also said that five Indian companies figured in the list of top 100 non-financial trans-national corporations, ranked by their foreign assets overseas.

Among them Tata Steel was ranked 15th, the state-run Oil and Natural Gas Corp in the 20th position, Hindalco in 29th rank, Tata Motors in 40th position and Suzlon in 54th.

http://ibnlive.in.com/news/india-9th-mo ... ml?from=tn

jagga · Post by **jagga** » 23 Jul 2010 14:37

This graph gives information on India's GDP growth and Tax to GDP ratio.

Note: MOD's Please let me know if Images are not allowed to post, In that case i will amend the post.

satyam · Post by **satyam** » 23 Jul 2010 14:48

^^^^^^

The above data is wrong. It considers only tax collected by central government . And omits the tax collected by state government.

India's tax/gdp ratio is nearly 17-18 %.

jagga · Post by **jagga** » 23 Jul 2010 14:57

Yes satyam you are right.India's tax/gdp ratio is nearly 17-18 %.
If you read the note given in the graph, it does mention that "Tax to GDP ratio is of the fedral government and excludes states."

Also just to mention the graph gives the details of the would be figures, if GST has been implemented successfully. For more info visit the below link.

Q+A - India's proposed goods and services tax

jagga · Post by **jagga** » 23 Jul 2010 15:07

Gurus,

Looking at the graph can we say safely that Tax/GDP ratio (Central + States combined) would be in the range of 22- 23% by 2012 if the GST has been implemented.

Hari Seldon · Post by **Hari Seldon** » 23 Jul 2010 18:34

Given that India understates its true GDP (sri suraj has pontificated on this a few times, iirc), the tax/gdp ratio is worse than the 17% odd bandied about currently.

Hence, more headroom to improve tax base and rev collection. IMHO.

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 23 Jul 2010 23:57

http://www.deccanherald.com/content/833 ... onomy.html
India to become a $ 5 trillion economy soon: US official

Indian economy has the potential to grow further and is likely to touch the USD five-trillion mark in the near future, the US Consul General, Paul Folmsbee, said on Friday. "The Indian economy is growing fast and from the present USD 1.2 trillion, it is expected to become a USD 5-trillion economy very soon," Folmsbee, said without specifying a particular time frame while addressing management students at G S College of Commerce here.The Consul General, who was in the city today for a seminar on 'Indo-US relations' also emphasised on the need for both countries to focus on vital issues like energy crisis, technology transfer, climate change, higher education and small as well as medium enterprises.On the higher education scenario, particularly at the University level, Folmsbee said many US varsities were in the process of setting up their establishments in the country with Columbia University already establishing its institution in Mumbai

Vipul · Post by **Vipul** » 24 Jul 2010 09:09

'Gain from GST to make India $2tn eco'

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 24 Jul 2010 23:41

With Growth on track, reforms get big push

ACTION PLAN
* Centre to go all out for GST rollout from April
* PM says 8.1% growth in 11th Plan best ever, inflation to decline to 6% by Dec
* Inflation and food security concerns put focus on higher farm output
* PM sets up committee to deal with urbanisation challenges
* Integrated Action Plan against Naxals for 35 districts likely

Govt to upgrade additional 3700km of national highways

The government will upgrade around 3,700 kilometres (km) of national highways (NHs) under the National Highways Interconnectivity Improvement Project (NHIIP) at a cost of about Rs 20,000 crore.

The project, to be executed by the Ministry of Road Transport & Highways, would involve double-laning of single-lane highways in eight states in the next three years. A senior ministry official said around 80 per cent of the funding would come from the World Bank, with the government providing the rest.

The project will help the government achieve its target of building 20 km road a day, set by Union Road Transport Minister Kamal Nath last year. When Nath assumed the charge of the ministry, the pace of construction was as low as 4 km a day, which has improved to over 13 km a day now.

The official said around 33 stretches had been identified in Bihar, Himachal Pradesh, Orissa, Uttarakhand, Karnataka, Rajasthan, West Bengal and Andaman & Nicobar Islands.

Around 12,000 NHs are still single-lane and the ministry had earlier announced that it would convert all NHs to two-lane, with paved shoulders, in one go.

darshan · Post by **darshan** » 24 Jul 2010 23:57

Has GoI published any official figures regarding ubiquitous $1.25 per day per Indian stat that we see regularly in news papers?

partha · Post by **partha** » 25 Jul 2010 00:48

This is disturbing. Karnataka needs some serious changes to its SEZ policy! This is not how land acquisition should be done.

PS: Is this the right thread for this post? I did not find any other thread where I could post this.

Rony · Post by **Rony** » 26 Jul 2010 05:57

India likely to grow faster than China next year

India is likely to overtake China as the worlds fastest-growing major economy within the next 12 months, according to the latest range of forecasts.

China’s gross domestic product will likely grow by between 8.3 and 8.8 per cent next year, while a bountiful monsoon this year and impending tax reforms mean India may reach 9.0 per cent in the financial year that runs from April 2011 to March 2012.

But China’s US$5 trillion economy is more than three times larger than that of India, meaning China will continue to be a far more important buyer of Australian commodities for years to come.

By the end of this year, China is likely to overhaul Japan as the world’s second largest economy after the United States. It is already the world’s largest energy consumer, according to the latest figures from the International Energy Agency.

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India ranks 11th globally in terms of nominal GDP, though earlier this year PricewaterhouseCoopers projected that India could overtake Japan to become the world’s third largest economy behind the U.S. and China by 2012, when measured by purchasing power parity.

China’s economy has been growing at a double-digit pace for much of the past decade but is starting to slow as the government in Beijing eases back on stimulus measures and seeks to put a brake on runaway property prices.

At the same time, India is starting to pick up the pace, though inflation remains a significant risk factor. As a consequence, the Reserve Bank of India is expected to increase interest rates by 0.25 percentage points when it meets on Tuesday (July 27).

A new, more efficient tax code which takes effect from April 2011 could add between 1.5 per cent and 2.0 per cent to India’s GDP growth, in the view of some economic experts. A key part of the tax reform is a goods and services tax.

Since mid-July, good monsoon rains have boosted India’s agricultural outlook, prompting Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s key Economic Advisory Council last Friday to upgrade its growth forecast to 8.5 per cent for the 2010-11 financial year and to 9.0 per cent for the year to March 31, 2012.

According to the council, inflation will fall from its current double-digit levels to about 6.5 per cent by March next year.

Last week, US bank Citigroup slashed one percentage point from its 2010 outlook for China, lowering it to 9.5 per cent this year and to 8.8 per cent for 2011. As part of an overall report on global growth, Citigroup’s head of China research, Minggao Shen, and Beijing-based economist Ken Peng noted that inflation was cooling along with the economy. “We downgrade our growth and inflation forecasts on much weaker momentum,” they wrote.

A week earlier, Roubini Global Economics – founded by noted economist Nouriel Roubini, the University of New York professor who warned in 2006 of the U.S. housing collapse and its global ramifications -- issued its own assessment of the Indian and Chinese economies.

RGE’s analysts predict India will post growth rates of 8.6 per cent for 2010-11 and 8.5 per cent for the year to March 2012. For China, it sees growth in the 2010 calendar year of 10.0 per cent, before a significant drop to 8.3 per cent in calendar 2011.

Arpitha Bykere, RGE’s senior research analyst for Asia, wrote on July 10 that for India, “improving private consumption, capex and capital inflows will lead to strong growth in 2010-11.” But Bykere pointed out that “sluggish structural reforms, liberalization and removal of supply-side bottlenecks will prevent a return to 9-10 per cent growth rates in the coming years.”

India has not had a full year of double-digit growth in the six decades since gaining independence at the end of the 1940s, though it reached 11.3 per cent for one three-month period in 2003-04 and two quarters of 10.2 to 10.3 per cent in 2006-07.

Regional forecaster IMA is taking a more conservative approach with its latest India outlook. In its mid-July forecasts, it projects growth of 8.2 per cent this year for India and 7.4 per cent in 2011. Its comparable figures for China are 9.8 per cent and 9.4 percent.

It says China’s main policy challenge in 2010 is pulling off a soft landing, and the central risk is a fall in property prices that “could well trigger a wave of bad loans.”

On India, IMA said the next six months should see a lift in growth, though it viewed the International Monetary Fund’s most recent update of 9.4 per cent growth in 2010 as a “little optimistic.”

In its latest World Economic Outlook, released on July 7, the IMF lifted its 2010 growth forecast for China to 10.5 per cent – up from 10 per cent in April -- while cutting its 2011 outlook from 9.9 per cent to 9.6 per cent. For India, it projected growth in calendar year 2010 of 9.4 per cent, up significantly from its projection of 8.8 per cent three months earlier. It said growth would then settle to 8.4 per cent in 2011.

The IMF said China was showing a strong rebound in exports and resilient domestic demand so far this year. In India, it said it expected growth to accelerate in 2010, as robust corporate profits and favourable financing conditions fuelled investment.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 27 Jul 2010 01:27

RBI affirms inflation targeting stance ahead of quarterly policy review

The Reserve Bank of India today indicated that the trend of rising interest rates would continue until inflation and inflationary expectations were contained, even as it stressed the need to improve supplies to bring down prices.

Bankers and economists expect RBI to raise its key rates by a quarter percentage point tomorrow to contain inflation. It has raised repo and reverse repo rates by 25 basis points each since March to contain inflation and reverse the rate cuts made in 2008 and 2009 as part of a stimulus package.

Inflation, based on the wholesale price index, has grown in double digits since February and has become increasingly generalised, RBI said. Non-food manufacturing inflation rose to 7.3 per cent in June from zero in November, showing the impact of rising input costs, recovering private demand and return of pricing power, it added. The impact of increase in fuel prices and increase in minimum support prices, and a possible increase in wages, could be additional factors exerting upward pressure on inflation, it observed.

RBI said the economy was on a steady growth path and could expand faster than its April forecast of 8 per cent. Rise in private consumption and investment demand would be the drivers of growth in the year to March 2011, the central bank said in its report ‘Macroeconomic and monetary developments’ a day before its quarterly monetary policy review.

Coal India to draft IPO papers next week

State-owned Coal India (CIL) is likely to file a draft prospectus next week for its initial public offering, billed to be India's biggest issue, through which the government expects to raise about Rs 15,000 crore.

Last month, the Union Cabinet had cleared the proposal to divest 10 per cent of the government's stake in the world's largest coal miner through an IPO. The Centre holds 100 per cent equity in the company.

Earlier, Coal Minister Sriprakash Jaiswal had said the share sale could be launched in October, terming the month "auspicious", as it coincides with the Durga Puja celebrations.

Sources said the IPO is expected to be launched on October 18 and will close on October 21. The government is looking to raise between Rs 12,000 crore to Rs 15,000 crore through the share sale.

Credit to commercial sector triples in April-June

Reflecting the strong growth in demand for credit from the commercial sector, fund flow to the sector increased three-fold in the first quarter of the financial year — driven mainly by credit flow from the banking system, housing finance companies and demand for funds for initial public offers (IPOs).

Total fund flow to the sector rose to Rs 2,50,210 crore ($54.4 billion) in April-June from Rs 61,475 crore ($13.3 billion) in the corresponding period last year. The banking system accounted for roughly 65 per cent of the total flow of funds to the sector. Bank credit rose 21.7 per cent on a year-on-year basis.

According to the latest Macroeconomic and Monetary Development Report by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), the flow of funds from non-banking sources went up 49 per cent. This was due to such domestic reasons as public issues by non-financial entities, external commercial borrowings and issuances of American depository receipts (ADRs) and global depository receipts (GDRs).

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 28 Jul 2010 21:24

Core sector grows 3.4% in June

Growth in key infrastructure sectors slowed to 3.4 per cent in June, the lowest performance in 10 months, prompting economists to hint that robust industrial expansion may drop to single digit.

The six infrastructure industries, with 26.7 per cent weight in the total factory output, saw its pace slowing down in June under the impact of a sharp decline in output growth in cement, electricity and coal.

For the month under review, growth in coal and cement production dipped by 0.9 per cent and 3.6 per cent, respectively over 15.2 per cent and 12.7 per cent in June 2009-10.

Increase in electricity generation came down to 3.4 per cent against 7.7 per cent in the same period last year.

"IIP will slowdown and go in single digit. We need to clear the projects much quickly to add more and more capacities," economic think-tank ICRIER Director Rajiv Kumar said. "The dip will impact the IIP which may come down to single digit," Crisil Principal Economist D K Joshi said.

Industrial output in May grew by 11.5 per cent.

June crude output up 6.8% on higher demand

The country's crude oil production rose 6.8 per cent in June on higher output from Rajasthan fields operated by Cairn India.

Crude oil output rose to 2.93 million tonnes in June this year as against 2.75 million tonnes a year ago, according to data released by Petroleum Ministry here.

Cairn India is producing about 110,000 barrels per day (5.5 million tonnes a year) from the Mangala oilfield in the Rajasthan block.

State-owned Oil and Natural Gas Corp (ONGC) saw a marginal dip in its production to 2.021 million tonnes from 2.026 even though output from its prime Mumbai High field rose 2 per cent to 1.43 million tons.

Oil India Ltd reported a 8.7 per cent drop in production at 264,000 tonnes. During April-June, the nation's crude oil production was up 5.9 per cent to 8.75 million tonnes with ONGC contributing 6.07 million tonnes.

The nation's 19 public and private sector refineries at 13.5 million tonnes turned 2.9 per cent more crude oil into products.

RBI raises GDP growth forecast to 8.5%

Amid the hype and surprise over the International Monetary Fund’s 9.4 per cent growth forecast for this year, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) today tried to inject some reasoning into the numbers, as it today revised India’s growth projection to 8.5 per cent from 8 per cent estimated earlier.

It told bankers during a post-policy closed-door meeting that its estimates were for 2010-11. In contrast, IMF’s revised projections were for calendar year 2010.

In the policy statement, RBI merely said the increase in its forecast was due to better-than-expected industrial production and its favourable impact on the services sector. Besides, it had factored in the global scenario. In fact, during the meeting with bank chiefs, RBI reiterated growth remained fragile and “anemic”, said a banker.

No one bothered posting this earlier:
RBI raises benchmark interest rates by 0.5%

India’s central bank increased a key interest rate more than economists forecast, battling to contain a surge in inflation that’s led to strikes and street rallies.

The central bank raised the reverse repurchase rate a half point to 4.5 percent, and the repurchase rate to 5.75 percent from 5.5 percent, it said in Mumbai. Today was the first time officials boosted one of the main rates by more than a quarter point since the last series of increases in 2008; the median forecasts in Bloomberg News surveys were for quarter-point moves.

Governor Duvvuri Subbarao has tightened monetary policy faster than his counterparts in Asia this year. The central bank boosted its estimate for wholesale-price inflation for the year to March to 6 percent from 5.5 percent and the economic growth forecast to 8.5 percent from 8 percent during the period.

For the current fiscal year, we're looking at 8.5-9% real GDP growth rate, and about 14% nominal growth in Rupee terms.

Theo_Fidel · Post by **Theo_Fidel** » 28 Jul 2010 21:36

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/Ind ... 225386.cms

IMF-govt GDP gap purely methodological, not all agree

The Reserve Bank of India, or the RBI, feel the difference is largely because of the way the GDP is calculated. IMF estimate is based on GDP at market prices, whereas other projections, including that of the Reserve Bank, are based on GDP at factor cost. “Adjusting for this, the IMF projections are in line with others,” the RBI says in its monetary policy review.

Dr DK Joshi, chief economist, CRISIL, concurs: “The difference between the two (methodologies) is net taxes (ie taxes-subsidies).”

“If one looks at IMF’s GDP forecast for last year, it was much lower than the government’s estimate as last year subsidies were large and taxes were lower, so the GDP at market price was lower than GDP at factor cost.”

This year, subsidies have declined and taxes have risen, so the net tax amount is larger and subsequently, GDP at market price is higher than GDP at factor cost. It is mostly a difference in accounting and methodology which gives the difference, he explains.

Is that correct. CSO puts out Indian GDP as NNI. The rest of the world calculates on market prices.

If so it would be very odd and our GDP should be over $1.5 Trillion already.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 28 Jul 2010 23:51

Even so, at the current rate of growth, we'll top $2 trillion within the next couple of fiscal years, i.e. around end 2012-13 fiscal year, with the next trillion following around four fiscal years after that.

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 29 Jul 2010 00:25

Suraj wrote:Even so, at the current rate of growth, we'll top $2 trillion within the next couple of fiscal years, i.e. around end 2012-13 fiscal year, with the next trillion following around four fiscal years after that.

Quadrupling of 2012-2013 numbers withn a decade will change the economic paradigm at global level. Smooth ride for another 10 years and we can rest with ease, look back at the last millenium and decide the future of our enemies.

Vipul · Post by **Vipul** » 29 Jul 2010 04:54

IFRS, GST, DTC - India Inc has an alphabet soup of laws coming.

amit · Post by **amit** » 29 Jul 2010 12:39

Prem wrote:
Suraj wrote:Even so, at the current rate of growth, we'll top $2 trillion within the next couple of fiscal years, i.e. around end 2012-13 fiscal year, with the next trillion following around four fiscal years after that.

Quadrupling of 2012-2013 numbers withn a decade will change the economic paradigm at global level. Smooth ride for another 10 years and we can rest with ease, look back at the last millenium and decide the future of our enemies.

Prem ji,

I only wish this point was understood by all and sundry on BRF, we'd have far less BP and throbbing blood vessels!

Vipul · Post by **Vipul** » 29 Jul 2010 21:10

Do not want to go OT here, but being Servile in only enabling/ensuring the Carrot to be visible while not showing the Danda is not going to decide anything vis-a-vis our enemies.

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 30 Jul 2010 00:07

Dont want to go ot , but economic strength coincide with half a billion young population in India ready to amend few mistakes of past and present .
'As China greys, India set to become world's growth engine'

Writing under the headline "Meet the world's next growth engine", the National Post daily Wednesday said that while the rest of the world grapples with the consequences of declining birth rates and mass retirements from workforces, India is set to reap benefits of demographic bulge. Though India's planners have a tough job on their hands of creating infrastructure and jobs and providing education to keep the momentum of growth, the rest of the world needs to ready itself for an era of relentless Indian expansion, the newspaper said."The potential is huge and it will happen... these things will happen, and they will transform us," the paper quoted Joseph Caron, former Canadian high commissioner in India, as saying.

While China is set to grey even before getting rich because of its one-child policy, India, on the other hand, has youth on its side, the paper said. "By 2020, it will add an additional 110 million people to its working ranks, the single largest increase in the global labour force," the paper said, quoting a Goldman Sachs report released Wednesday. Though its demographic dividend is arriving 20 years after its peers in East Asia because of more gradual declines in its death and birth rates, India is now prepared to cash in on that dividend, the paper said. According to the Goldman Sachs report, demographics alone would contribute four percent of annual growth in India for the next 20 years. Based the country's last year's GDP of $1.2 trillion, this projection amounts to almost $50 billion in the first year alone, compounding thereafter. But India's planners have a lot of work to do to make that potential a reality, the paper said, adding that creating jobs required to absorb its new workers is their major challenge

.

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/new ... 231545.cms

suryag · Post by **suryag** » 30 Jul 2010 03:41

I am not sure where to post this question "if an indian company acquires a foreign company and becomes the majority stakeholder which country gains the taxes out of the income generated from the acquired entity ?" For example, tata acquired jlr so in the future would tata be paying goi the income tax for the income it gets on jlr or does it pay ukg ?

vina · Post by **vina** » 30 Jul 2010 08:55

I am not sure where to post this question "if an indian company acquires a foreign company and becomes the majority stakeholder which country gains the taxes out of the income generated from the acquired entity ?" For example, tata acquired jlr so in the future would tata be paying goi the income tax for the income it gets on jlr or does it pay ukg ?

We have double taxation treaties with most countries. So what it means is that the income is taxed in only ONE country at most. The convention is that usually the country where the revenue is earned taxes it (it was all a one way street until recently because India had little or no FDI outward bound, we taxed the income of all the foreign companies in India) taxes it as well.

So what it means is that JLR/Corus revenues in UK are taxed in UK and any profits that are repatriated to India are tax free in India , since it has already suffered tax in the UK. Same with Unilver / Unilever India etc , the other way.

The exception is good ol' USA. Their companies are taxed on profits repatriated as well (despite DTAA). So there is strong disincentive for the global operations of US companies to repatriate their profits. The MickeSofts, IBMs etc, with close to 50 to 60% revenues coming globally pay more tax than otherwise , while an Infosys USA repatriating profits to the parent, Infosys, doesn't suffer tax twice.

abhishek_sharma · Post by **abhishek_sharma** » 30 Jul 2010 09:31

Rich I.P.O. Brings Controversy to SKS Microfinance

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/07/30/business/30micro.html

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 30 Jul 2010 18:54

WSJ - hnairish strategy of being an 'alien' and eating the angrez from the inside out lol.

Reliance, Universal Entertain Idea of U.S.-Style Theme Park in India

By AMOL SHARMA

India's Reliance ADA Group is in talks with Universal Studios to build a $1.5 billion theme park and resort in India, seeking to capitalize on rising demand for entertainment in one of the world's fastest-growing markets, a person familiar with the matter said.

Reliance, a media-to-energy conglomerate backed by billionaire Anil Ambani, would be full owner of the park but would pay Universal royalties and fees for using brands and content linked to popular Hollywood movies such as "Jaws," "E.T.," "Spider-Man" and the "Harry Potter" franchise, this person said.

The park would look much like Universal's other major theme parks in Los Angeles, Orlando, Fla., and Japan, with a variety of roller coasters and rides, shops with movie-related merchandise and nearby hotels. The complex is expected to stretch over 400 acres, which would make it one of the biggest such sites in the world, the person familiar with the matter said.

Reliance's Big Entertainment subsidiary and Universal, a unit of General Electric Co.'s NBC Universal, still are discussing terms, but could reach a deal this year. One person familiar with the matter warned, however, that talks are at an early stage, and could yet break down.

A Reliance spokesman said his company doesn't comment on market speculation. Universal declined to comment.

In addition to Universal's stable of Hollywood productions, the park would incorporate content from Mumbai's prolific film industry, known as Bollywood, potentially adding to recent crossovers between the U.S. and Indian entertainment worlds.

The costs of the theme park, including land acquisition, licensing of intellectual property and construction, would be about $1.5 billion, a person familiar with the matter said. The main cities being considered for the park are New Delhi and Mumbai, which are densely populated and have relatively affluent populations for India. Building the theme park could take three years.

The companies believe India is an attractive location for a big theme park because rapid economic growth is lifting incomes, and urban consumers are looking for new ways to relax and experience entertainment.

Moreover, one-third of India's 1.2 billion-strong population is under 14. While shopping malls and movie theaters are popular weekend destinations for young people, Reliance believes there would be huge demand for theme parks as well.

A deal with Universal would be the latest in a series of moves by Reliance to team up with U.S. entertainment companies as it seeks to fashion itself into a global media giant. Reliance is one of the key financial backers of Steven Spielberg's DreamWorks Studios and is separately funding film projects for Hollywood stars including Tom Hanks, Jim Carrey, Nicolas Cage and Brad Pitt. The company also operates more than 500 movie theaters globally. In television, Reliance is forming a 50-50 joint venture with CBS Corp. of the U.S. to launch Hindi- and English-language TV channels in South Asia. Final details of the CBS partnership are to be worked out in coming weeks.

For Universal, India represents a chance to extend its brand to a new frontier. Universal has just a handful of theme parks. It is sole owner of its Hollywood park, which opened in 1964, and is a partner in the Universal Orlando Resort, which opened in the 1990s and includes the Islands of Adventure park. In June it unveiled a 20-acre addition to the park called the Wizarding World of Harry Potter, which features rides based on the "Harry Potter" movies.

Universal licenses its brand to parks in Japan and Singapore. Universal Studios Japan opened in 2001. The Singapore park partly opened in March.

In addition to licensing its extensive roster of movies, Universal provides planning, development and operating-management services for Universal-branded theme parks in locations throughout the world for a fee.

Reliance was drawn to Universal as a partner because in addition to its own properties, Universal acquires intellectual-property rights from other Hollywood studios, such as the "Harry Potter" series from Time Warner Inc.'s Warner Bros., according to a person familiar with the situation.

Last year, U.S. cable giant Comcast Corp. agreed to buy control of NBC Universal, Universal's parent, and is seeking regulatory approval to close the deal.
—Lauren E. Schuker contributed to this article.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 30 Jul 2010 20:52

I have question on the rise in food prices in India? Is this an inflationary issue or just politics? What exactly is driving this price rise?