Managing Pakistan's failure

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 23 Jul 2010 11:06

The fear of assimilation is there right from the 13th & 14th century. The slow hardline Islamism was underway from those times.They dont need the badlands for the kabila which is where they are.

Rudradev · Post by **Rudradev** » 23 Jul 2010 11:08

shiv wrote: The Paki army is being asked to contain it by the US. They are unwilling to commit forces to do that citing the India threat. And suddenly the truth of ramana's "kabila" theory hits me in the face. The Paki army sees the "badlands" as the new site for a new kabila and does not want order there.

.

I don't fully understand the import of this "kabila" theory. I do understand that TSPA has been running Pakistan as essentially the resource pool to serve their armed camp, whether in terms of exploiting its labour class or extending its territory to foreign sponsors as a rentier state.

I understand why the TSPA chose this path, rather than trying to build a real nation. Establishing a Kabila was a "path of least resistance" that gave the TSPA power while absolving it of the responsibility for good governance. Better to walk around in an armed camp with power flowing from your drawn sword than to have to be answerable for development, justice and all the rest of it.

What I don't understand is why the TSPA are likely to simply continue along that path, extending a new Kabila in the badlands of NWFP/FATA, rather than consolidate Pakistan into a "Mulk" with themselves as Sultan.

Given that TSPA now no longer has the monopoly over violence in Pakistan, are they not far less secure as a Kabila (one of many armed camps) than they would be as rulers of a "Mulk" ? Of course it is late in the game, perhaps even too late, for the TSPA to overcome their institutional inertia and drive towards building a "Mulk" in Pakistan. But isn't this their only hope of survival in the long or even medium term? After all the resource pool on which the TSPA's Kabila fed itself has dried up, and all its support comes at the pleasure of foreigners now... meanwhile, the other Kabilas of Pakistan are gaining in strength.

The only explanation I can think of for why TSPA still clings to its Kabila doctrine, rather than try to consolidate a Mulk, is that they value the inherent mobility and transitory nature of a Kabila. At some level the TSPA believe that when the sh1t hits the fan in what is now Pakistan, they can move their Kabila to somewhere else (Kashmir? Kabul? Delhi?) and use that new territory as their new resource pool.

IOW, TSPA's loyalty is more to itself than to the nation known as Pakistan today... like a swarm of locusts, they have devoured what the sweat and soil of Jinnah's moth-eaten Pakistan had to offer them, left it an ungovernable and chaotic mess, and are now seeking new fields to consume.

I think that is why we are seeing this new proliferation of Paki "liberals" trying to convince us that if only we Indians would be reasonable and make concessions, Pakistan would be more than happy to make peace with us. These apparently "conciliatory" RAPE will be the vanguard, carrying the tent-pegs of the TSPA Kabila into Indian territory.

Rudradev · Post by **Rudradev** » 23 Jul 2010 11:12

ramana wrote:The fear of assimilation is there right from the 13th & 14th century. The slow hardline Islamism was underway from those times.They dont need the badlands for the kabila which is where they are.

Again, if they really feared assimilation by India, would it not have made more sense for TSPA to consolidate Pakistan into a "Mulk" rather than simply consume it as the resource-pool of their Kabila? A genuine Islamic nationalism could have secured Sindh and Punjab from assimilation by India much more than the travesty they have in fact perpetrated. Or did they fear that no amount of genuine Islamic nationalism had any hope of countering the power of Indic traction in the long term?

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 23 Jul 2010 11:50

RD, your post suggests that RATS sees it self as the custodion of TSP only. I am begening to think that they see themselves as the vanguard of the global Jihadi Movementagainst Indics. If thats the case then they need to have a secure base from which they will launch a thrust into India.

Moreover, Indic forces have already once assimilated Lahore once before as well under Maharaja Ranjit Singh , keepign it under unified political control till the Partition.

If one is to look at the current strife in Punjab through historical lence then I am prity sure that as soon as TSP collapses the Punjabies will ask India to take over. In order to safeguard their lives and property from the Islamists.

Atri · Post by **Atri** » 23 Jul 2010 16:57

shiv wrote:And there is one statistic that no demographic indicator will tell you: Illegal firearms in Pakistan: 18 million of them - 10% Pakis own a firearm. This translated s to one in two or three paki males with access to a firearm.

Shiv ji,

Is it possible to know what percentage of those firearms are with Pakjabis and Sindhis? Few of my friends report that it is rather easy to obtain firearms in purest part of TSP (NWFP) as compared to Pakjab. Unless 10% of Pakjabis own an illegal firearm and a "Akshay quiver" of bullets, things won't reach the high-energy state which one is hoping for here.

Thank you.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 23 Jul 2010 17:06

SSridhar wrote:India must be really foolish to offer a selective cooperation because a lower riparian state needs more water because of its poor water management, burgeoning population, dependence on water-guzzling crops and crop patters, poor farming techniques and skills etc. while that country continues to maintain unbridled hatred, unrelenting animosity, sending in terrorists to destroy us, allowing its terrorist tanzeems to recruit and train jihadis, maintaining a disproportionate armed force and nuclear weapons specifically to harass and threaten us and lying through their teeth not only to its own people but the rest of the world about evil Indian hegemon.

Water has to be a weapon for coercion! Why not?

Once India's string of pearls on the three Western rivers of the Indus Basin are finished, Pakistan should be given an ultimatum. Either you stop terrorism, and behave like a good neighbor, or India is going to stop water flow as and when it pleases us, for we too would not be bound to behave as a good neighbor. It is up to Pakistan.

This should be stated in clear words to the Pakistani farmers as well, that the behavior of their Establishment will dictate whether they get any water for irrigation or not.

brihaspati · Post by **brihaspati** » 23 Jul 2010 17:11

I think we make an error in delinking the TSPA from the landed interests in Pakjab and Sindh and even Balochistan. Faced with the possibility of an unreliable future underwriter in an USA of dubious strength, and an apparently rising China, the TSPA may actually anticipate loss of supplies through the southern sea-board, through AFG-CAR route, and therefore it may see two contingency possibilities. First to join up with the Talebs and become Talebs [a standard feature from the earliest known history - change sides when defeated], or retreat into the Kashmir Valley and POK, where they will have contiguity with China. This could be a reason, why Kashmir has become so important for the TSPA.

Here is a cross-post from strategic scenario thread to give a perspective:

The Pak land problem, and why that leads to failure -1

The ML had little support in the regions included in the award to Pak and the support of the landed elite, especially in elections in the decades leading to the Partition had clinched the British-Jinnah effort at separatism. [1] The landed elite of Punjab, Bengal, and Sind strongly supported the Pakistan movement, and therefore secured their position in the nascent Pak state.[2] Pakistan state structure's inherent weakness came from two factors : first, its provinces had little dyadic interactions between themselves, had little overlap culturally, and nothing was in common apart from Islam with relatively weak grassroots linkages to ML except through a feudal theological mobilization. Second, each of these subregions were connected to the Indian economic network which were all disrupted. The new Pak state had a very weak dysfunctional state machinery unlike that in Indian part of Brit admin, huge refugee influx, had military designs on India, almost complete financial crisis and severe food shortages. Therefore the state coopted the feudals who lent their authority to the gov, who extracted consolidation of their role as intermediaries in establishing political order in the rural areas.[2,3]. This implied that the state had excluded itself from the vast rural areas, entrenched a semi-independent sociopolitical entity, and made the state largely dependent on the feudals.

Throughout the 1950s the state failed to extract surplus from agriculture [territory of Pakistan in fact had little industrial capital investment in the pre-Partition phase] by taxation, control of price of agricultural goods[3,4] or ensure food sufficiency. The feudals restricted grain supply and reaped enormous profits none of which went into state coffers - leading to urban food riots in the 1952-54 period.[3] This was one of the main excuses for USA to move in through food aid. By the middle of the 1950s the feudals dominated ML, the national and provincial cabinets, as well as in the Constituent Assembly, and therefore used state resources to further weaken the state. Apparently, Zia provided members of the National Assembly, full of the feudals, with considerable sums of money to "invest in development projects in their districts as they saw fit."[4] In a way this is a continuation of the delegation of state role to the feudals.

The intermediary role of the feudals makes it inevitable that the landlord class unites and forms alliances with small farmers and rural bad gentry. This land-based interest creates a compulsive political force that changes parties and political processes or ideologies, much more than politics, ideology or parties affect this class interest. This has been the driving reality of Pak politics as dramatically revealed in the confrontations with Ayub and Bhutto, both of whom ended up compromising deeply their initial modernizing/reformist zeal and Ayub ultimately feudalizing the army command by granting lands to army officers and Bhutto sabotaging land reforms in effect.

Therefore, this has fatally weakened the Pak state, and none of its institutions are based on strong foundations, with the legitimacy of state practically non-existent. Whatever authority exists is therefore split into urban and rural sectors where the urban is the arena where the state pretends it has authority, while the overwhelming rural populations and domain is controlled by the feudal alliance which in turn is the real intermediary of power to the population.

I will show, towards the end, why that means that even the Talebs will be transformed partly and will be coopted into the feudal elite and the elite be coopted into the Talebs.
(To be continued)

[1] David Gilmartin, Empire and Islam: Punjab and the Making of Pakistan (Berkeley :University of California Press, 1988).
[2] Timothy Mitchell, The Limits of the State: Beyond Statist Approaches and their Critics," Aerican Political Science Review, 35:1 (1991) pp 77-96.
[3] Ayesha Jalal, The State of Martial Rule: The Origins of Pakistan's Political Economy of Defence (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1990), pp. 144-51.
[4] "The State and Political Privilege in Pakistan," in Myron Weiner and Ali Banuazizi, eds., The Politics of Social Transformation in Afghanistan, Iran, and Pakistan (Syracuse: Syracuse University Press, 1994), p.180.

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 23 Jul 2010 17:22

RajeshA,

For your strategy to work the dams will have to be able to hold the water for a sufficient period of time. However, in the light of the Paki objections and its predilection to create a ruckus for every project launched on the western rivers. India will be building dams that will have a limited ability to hold water??. If they are to pass muster of the arbitration process as defined under IWT.

Now it will be a completely different case if TSP was to abrogate the IWT unilaterally. India will be free to do as it please.

But will TSP bite the bullet and walk away from IWT??

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 23 Jul 2010 17:25

Well basically whether we have one huge dam holding lots of water, or several on the same river together holding the same amount of water, it doesn't matter. Does it?

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 23 Jul 2010 17:32

Rudradev wrote: IOW, TSPA's loyalty is more to itself than to the nation known as Pakistan today... like a swarm of locusts, they have devoured what the sweat and soil of Jinnah's moth-eaten Pakistan had to offer them, left it an ungovernable and chaotic mess, and are now seeking new fields to consume.

Oh absolutely and this is why the kabila model seems to fit in well with my idea that the Paki army is a vast criminal enterprise where you grab when you are strong and grovel, or negotiate or ask for mediation when you are weak.

After all "strategic depth" is the same as space to move your kabila. This was the very meaning assigned to strategic depth by Ayass or someone when he asked if the Paki army was going to move into Afghanistan if India attacked.

Rudradev wrote:I think that is why we are seeing this new proliferation of Paki "liberals" trying to convince us that if only we Indians would be reasonable and make concessions, Pakistan would be more than happy to make peace with us. These apparently "conciliatory" RAPE will be the vanguard, carrying the tent-pegs of the TSPA Kabila into Indian territory.

The reek of snake oil is overpowering and there is only one way to "negotiate" with tehse people - i.e when they are down and out and begging.

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 23 Jul 2010 17:37

RajeshA wrote:Well basically whether we have one huge dam holding lots of water, or several on the same river together holding the same amount of water, it doesn't matter. Does it?

True, but you can't deny the fun we can have by getting the IWT abrogated.

Hari Seldon · Post by **Hari Seldon** » 23 Jul 2010 18:27

Pak will plan some Samson option as additional insurance against predictably rational Yindia.

And its not just the crown jewel insurance - the yindia-specific nook bums whose supply closet keeps expanding with cheena's help and unkil's winking (they'll likely be PALled to prevent use against unkil+allies though, but not against Yindia).

TSP and PRC will expand assets within Yindia bigtime - wartime will bring out all the termites out of the woodwork. Sabotages, infra targetting, widespread riots and bloodletting, bum blasts, cyber war - you name it. The maoists have already shown capability, intent, organization and opportunism enough to be counted as a third front in the expected 2 front war.

So yes, I fear like some of us jingoes expect - war may not be nearly be a 'clean' option (in terms of militaries fighting each other and the civilian citizenry largely in a spectator role). There are very valid reasons to seek to avoid war but as usual, that war-avoidance imperative will be seen as our weakness to be exploited evermore.

Time will tell, great forces are at work. Letz wait and see.

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 23 Jul 2010 19:31

Did some math on a nuke-event. Make your own inferences.

Notes:
1. Nukes are assumed to target city centers. Only one nuke is assumed per city. Nukes are assumed to be 20kt size.
2. Did not take human losses into account.
3. The real GDP loss will be higher than projected to commensurate the higher human losses.
4. The real Capital loss will be lower than projected as most of capital assets are located in city outskirts.
5. 8% interest rate is assumed to calculate Capital assets (formula: capital = payment/int)

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 23 Jul 2010 19:55

brihaspati wrote:
The intermediary role of the feudals makes it inevitable that the landlord class unites and forms alliances with small farmers and rural bad gentry. This land-based interest creates a compulsive political force that changes parties and political processes or ideologies, much more than politics, ideology or parties affect this class interest. This has been the driving reality of Pak politics as dramatically revealed in the confrontations with Ayub and Bhutto, both of whom ended up compromising deeply their initial modernizing/reformist zeal and Ayub ultimately feudalizing the army command by granting lands to army officers and Bhutto sabotaging land reforms in effect.

Therefore, this has fatally weakened the Pak state, and none of its institutions are based on strong foundations, with the legitimacy of state practically non-existent. Whatever authority exists is therefore split into urban and rural sectors where the urban is the arena where the state pretends it has authority, while the overwhelming rural populations and domain is controlled by the feudal alliance which in turn is the real intermediary of power to the population.

I will show, towards the end, why that means that even the Talebs will be transformed partly and will be coopted into the feudal elite and the elite be coopted into the Talebs.
(To be continued)

This is an excellent dissection of something that may already have started in Pakistan.

The only cheer I get is the weapons that are on the loose and a population size never before handled by anyone in this manner.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 23 Jul 2010 20:07

Atri wrote: Is it possible to know what percentage of those firearms are with Pakjabis and Sindhis? Few of my friends report that it is rather easy to obtain firearms in purest part of TSP (NWFP) as compared to Pakjab. Unless 10% of Pakjabis own an illegal firearm and a "Akshay quiver" of bullets, things won't reach the high-energy state which one is hoping for here.

No figures exist, to my knowledge. But if you trawl the net you can find scores if not hundreds of photographs of private Paki militia with weapons.

A_Gupta · Post by **A_Gupta** » 28 Jul 2010 06:21

Have people solved the problem of managing a failed Pakistan? or did people change their mind about its failure?

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 28 Jul 2010 07:17

A few year back I looked at firearms in TSP badlands along with other things.

Try this presentation I made in massa landd.

http://www.indiaresearch.org/UnderstandingPakistan.pdf

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 28 Jul 2010 07:23

A_Gupta wrote:Have people solved the problem of managing a failed Pakistan? or did people change their mind about its failure?

Arun, for people to talk about Pakistan's "failure" they have to accept that there is asomething about Pakistan that has failed or is failing.

Many people see Pakistan as a roaring success. As long as you see Pakistan as a roaring and untrammelled success - you cannot discuss Pakistan's failure.

There are, in my view three types of people on BRF
1) Those who feel Pakistan is a success. These peopel do not need to visit this thread at all
2) Those who feel that Pakistan has some cahnce of being a failure or that some things are failing in Pakistan. For them, this therad may offer some means of discussing thei thoughts
3) Those who feel Pakistan has failed. This thread is for them to state why and what can be done.

A_Gupta · Post by **A_Gupta** » 28 Jul 2010 08:25

I guess the perceived willingness of the Americans, MMS, etc., to kowtow to Pakistani interests makes some people see Pakistan as a roaring success. How can you have The Superpower by the short and curlies, even paying you to stop killing its soldiers, which you never quite get around to doing, and be considered a failure?

The flip side of the problem is that there is not much daylight between Pakistan and India. So what if Pakistan's development expenditures are tiny and India's are huge? Anyone care to guess how much of the development budget actually reaches the target in places like Bihar or Jharkhand?

It will be good to manage the failed Pakistan while also quietly patching up the boat India is in.

Bharath.Subramanyam · Post by **Bharath.Subramanyam** » 28 Jul 2010 08:59

http://www.ndtv.com/news/videos/video_p ... ?id=152988

When Brihaspati ji & some others used to have hope on Indian deracinated mind, I thought they were wrong. See the above video. Towards the last, the anchor takes comments from audience. Two youngsters make interesting comments:

i. "Either we have to wipe P.. out of the map of the world or integrate the P.. into the map of India"

ii. "We should do what ISI do to us. We need to start covert operations inside P.."

Only old people and some "Dilli Billi" type woman are talking about more talks. Normal common man and youngsters understand that "talks", "peace process" are all BS. Almost everybody was nodding their head for covert operations.

I had earlier thought that the young generation is lost due to Macaulay education & Media. But I think with internet and international travel (both to & fro), youngsters are slowly understanding the world. I think both the so called National parties will be forced to understand this feeling of youngsters.

May be Brihaspati ji can clarify whether he meant this young "hungry & impatient" generation to change the politics of Mughal Mansabdari Party which has ruled India for a long time.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 28 Jul 2010 09:48

A_Gupta, Again I urge you to focus on TSP in this thread an discuss India's problems in the apporpriate thread. Otherwise it becomes Shalya saradhyam.

BTW many opinion makers in sarkar do read this forum.

Was quite surprised at the eclectic audience.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 28 Jul 2010 09:57

Bharath, The kid spoke Brahma vakya. The only redemption for TSP people is to get back into Indian fold. The ME has utter contempt for the Pakis. The same is with the Indonesians who are the other large group. The Pakis were misled by British grand promises and PRC foolishness in transferring fission nukes.

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 28 Jul 2010 10:03

Bharath.Subramanyam wrote:http://www.ndtv.com/news/videos/video_p ... ?id=152988

When Brihaspati ji & some others used to have hope on Indian deracinated mind, I thought they were wrong. See the above video. Towards the last, the anchor takes comments from audience. Two youngsters make interesting comments:

i. "Either we have to wipe P.. out of the map of the world or integrate the P.. into the map of India"

ii. "We should do what ISI do to us. We need to start covert operations inside P.."

Only old people and some "Dilli Billi" type woman are talking about more talks. Normal common man and youngsters understand that "talks", "peace process" are all BS. Almost everybody was nodding their head for covert operations.

I had earlier thought that the young generation is lost due to Macaulay education & Media. But I think with internet and international travel (both to & fro), youngsters are slowly understanding the world. I think both the so called National parties will be forced to understand this feeling of youngsters.

May be Brihaspati ji can clarify whether he meant this young "hungry & impatient" generation to change the politics of Mughal Mansabdari Party which has ruled India for a long time.

Bharat, It is only the english language indian media that is this way. If you read the non English national languages daily news they are very clear about what TSP is all about. Also if you are to interact with population outside the metros ( Delhi and Mumbai are the cities where the WKKs are most dominent in my experience. You will find that Indians in general don't really want to have any thing to do with Pakistan.

Ramana, I hope his tribe grows by leaps and bound (Din Duni Raay Chaugini ) Non hindi speakers duble during the day and quadruple during the night.

derkonig · Post by **derkonig** » 28 Jul 2010 10:43

ramana wrote:Bharath, The kid spoke Brahma vakya. The only redemption for TSP people is to get back into Indian fold. The ME has utter contempt for the Pakis. The same is with the Indonesians who are the other large group. The Pakis were misled by British grand promises and PRC foolishness in transferring fission nukes.

Pakiness of the pakis is not just posturing, they are born & brought up on bakislam. No amount of aman ki tamasha, pappi jahppi & grand reconcilliation can detox the paki. They are lost. Period. Therefore the "reintegration" may seem to be redemption of the paki, but it definitely is not redemption for the SDRE, its damnation, its akin to Lord Shiva consuming poison, only that we are mere mortals and we cannot survive this fresh injection of venom into our society, we already have enough of non-Indic venom in Bharat. The only path of salvation for the SDRE is extermination of the Paki.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 28 Jul 2010 10:58

derkonig, Sorry to be crude but, saanp se jahar nekaane ke liye, saanp ka gardan pakkad an pad that hain!

To remove the venom from a snake, one has to hold the snake by its neck.
Saanp = TSPA
venom = islamism

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 28 Jul 2010 11:07

ramana wrote:derkonig, Sorry to be crude but, saanp se jahar nekaane ke liye, saanp ka gardan pakkad an pad that hain!

To remove the venom from a snake, one has to hold the snake by its neck.
Saanp = TSPA
venom = islamism

But Indians are known for giving milk to Saanps> this old habit to feed the poisonous beings still flourishing. They must learn to crush the snake heads at large and defang the domesticated ones.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 28 Jul 2010 11:11

Making Terrorists Pay Up

Pakistanis come and kill Indian citizens in India, in Kabul, where ever they can. We know that the Pakis did it, but all we say to ourselves is, they will pay for it someday, and leave everything to karma. We never spell out, how much the Pakis will have to pay. Unless it is spelled out, nothing will ever be extracted, and they will go scot-free. Unless it is spelled out, it is just a momentary empty bluster, a hollow threat and nothing more. Even while it is made, nobody has the confidence, that something will come out of it. It is not taken seriously, neither by the terrorist, nor by the ones making such empty threats of retaliation. The problem is the retribution is not quantified.

If one says, x Indian lives would cost Pakistan x Pakistani lives, then it becomes even more funny. The quantification has to be monetarily. Every terror victim needs to be compensated for their loss, and the compensation has to be extracted from the terror perpetrators.

One thing that annoys me immensely is that Indians just do not understand the right of terrorism victims to get compensation, and that too from terror perpetrators.

There should be a law in India, which promises a victim of terror and his family a fair monetary compensation and makes GoI duty-bound to extract such a compensation.

The minimum price should be ascertained by equivalent compensations for terror in the international arena; the Libyan compensation comes to mind. The total price on each and every life should be a combination of the aspect that they were humans, and Indian citizens, as well as the secondary aspect, that should be ascertained by the court, as to how much the human meant in financial terms to the society. This is the amount, the GoI should be bound by law to extracting from terrorist organizations or State sponsors of terror, and this amount cannot be waived by the GoI, no matter how much time has passed.

GoI should send this bill to the Pakistanis. If the Pakistanis refuse to pay, then India has a case for taking whatever is of monetary worth to Pakistanis by whatever means possible. Then India has a case for undertaking land grab in Pakistan. Just like debt collectors include their expenses of collection to the bill, so too can India. This debt can also carry interest and increase. So if during a land grab, the Indians suffer any losses because of resistance by Pakistanis, then the cost of that can be added to the bill. Land grab is just one method.

Another method would be to get international banks to freeze Pakistani assets and to get those assets to be transferred to India. This can be done by a UN Resolution, if need be, or it can be done by a coalition of the willing.

Let's see a rough calculation, based on the compensation by Libya for Lockerbie and Berlin discotheque bombing:

Code: Select all

Pan Am Flight 103 Bombing over Lockerbie 
   For Every Dead (270): $ 10 million

UTA Flight 772 over Chad
   For Every Dead (170) (except Americans): $ 1 million

Berlin Discotheque Bombing
   For Turkish Woman Dead: $ 1 million
   For Serious Injured: $ 350,000
   For Lightly Injured: $ 170,000

In Mumbai Attacks there were 173 dead and at least 308 injured. Some say Taj and Trident-Oberoi suffered a loss of around Rs 800 crores (~ $ 171 million). Then there was loss of business in tourism, hospitality. Other places, which were attacked also suffered some loss. If we (for sake of argument) put the price of life of an Indian at $ 5 million and that of an injured at $ 350,000:

Code: Select all

173 dead  ~ $ 865 million
308 injured  ~ $ 107.8 million
Property Loss  ~ $ 250 million
Business Confidence Loss  ~ $ 500 million
Emergency Services Cost  ~ $ 30 million
Security Services Charges  ~ $ 30 million
Processing Costs  ~ $ 10 million

Total  ~ $ 1.8 billion
Total (Loss of Life and Injuries) ~ $ 1 billion

Only if Pakistanis are forced to cough up this money, would there be acceptance of guilt, humiliation and more importantly pain. Kiyani would face a serious loss of face, if instead of his kabila looting Hindu coffers, instead his kabila is being looted by the banias.

Suddenly terrorism would lose its charm!

Many Indians, may laugh and scoff at the notion, that Indians have a price, but compensation is important to bring terrorism from the pedestal of holy wars to the level of money. If you don't bring jihad to the level of money, you won't be able to take the sheen out of it.

If Pakistanis like to call themselves as victims of terrorism, than India should take it upon her, to give some real meaning to this catch-phrase.

Of course, the terrorists should also get their punishment, but even if the system gives them some pro-forma punishment, the populace of Pakistan which does cheer-leading for the jihadis will get a wake-up call!

When the jihadi points the gun at the bania, the bania should just pick the jihadi's pocket. Next time it would keep the jihadi away!

The next time there are Indo-Pak talks, they should be about compensation! All those in the GoI who think or say, that they are above money, and it is not about money, but about justice, blah, blah, should get a kick in their b@lls. If they are serious about tackling terrorism, GoI should make sure to make it about money!

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 28 Jul 2010 11:11

Kaliya mardan already forgotten?

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 28 Jul 2010 11:26

ramana wrote:Kaliya mardan already forgotten?

Indeed it is looking at the behaviour of the National Ledership.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 28 Jul 2010 11:46

ramana wrote:Maybe NRIs can lobby Kerry Lugar to deduct that amount from Paki acct and debit to India.

abhishek_sharma wrote:Leading senators lash out at Pakistan, Obama’s withdrawal date

http://thecable.foreignpolicy.com/posts ... rawal_date

John Kerry and Richard Lugar put in a lot of effort to get this bill through. The Bill carries their name. These revelations about Pakistan's duplicity will hit both of them hard. Some Senators may see, some potential in it to make some mileage. The anti-Government media and the Internet will run with this story.

Senate Intelligence Committee chairwoman Dianne Feinstein, D-CA, said Tuesday she was shocked by the allegations in the leaked reports that elements of Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) directorate were directly involved in attacks on coalition forces in Afghanistan.

"We need to find out if it's true," she told The Cable in an interview. "The suspicion is that it may well be true."

Dianne Feinstein is a Clintonista. This is Hillary Clinton looking for some way to hit at the Obama Presidency. John Kerry is an ardent supporter of Obama. This could turn into an effort to weaken the support base for Obama amongst the Democrats within the US Government. Hillary Clinton too has taken a hard line against Pakistan and warned Pakistan several times.

Point here is: there may be fissures out there in U.S. Government for India to exploit, and twist U.S. Government to look at Pakistan from a different PoV.

ramana garu,

If the amount is simply deducted from the outlay in Kerry-Lugar Bill, Pakistanis would get angry that again the US is siding with India. It will not be taken as the international community takes a stand against Pakistan. The Pakis are not grateful for any aid anyway. You give them and they will still complain. The money in Kerry-Lugar Bill is still not Pakistani money, so if they lose it, it will be a loss of money, but not of H&D.

I would wish for a higher degree of acceptance of the responsibility for terrorism by Pakistan and/or by the world, as and when India receives the compensation.

I would prefer, that the whole Kerry-Lugar Bill Money is withheld until Pakistan pays the compensation to India. Some of that money can be forcefully taken from Pakistan's international accounts. The rest has to be forced out of Pakistan.

There is a far more probability that the US Senate may stay the payment of the Kerry-Lugar Bill Money to Pakistan, if some Senators bring in an Amendment or another Bill, saying that the payment should be withheld until Pakistan has paid the full compensation to India. The Senators who batted for Pakistan are weaker now after the Wikileaks exposé. The families of the Americans who died, can lobby other Senators to take up the cause, and put a stop to American tax-payer money flowing to the killers of Americans. Putting more conditions on Money flow to Pakistan is something that can be taken up easily in the present climate.

Another money account on which Pakistanis feel entitlement is the Coalition Support Fund for Afghanistan. India can try to get the Americans to transfer money out of that account. That would really piss off the Pakistanis no end.

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 28 Jul 2010 16:40

The money if any has to be paid out of Pakistani pockets only. But no need to be direct about. In the recent past i came accross reports that Indian was playing hard ball with TSP WRT to its textile industry. If true then then that points a way forward. Cause the loss of reveue will have to be compensated and can only be done if they get substute cotton at the same rate at which it is available from India. Which is not really possible considering the distances involved.

Causing a loss of revenue to the TSP. That will be the real price of fomenting and supporting terrorism against India.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 28 Jul 2010 21:02

The idea of compensation for murder is well known to Pakis. It is sanctioned by Sharia. If I recall right, the death of a Muslim woman attracts half the monetary penalty as that of a Muslim man, and the death of a kafir attracts half that of a woman. In fact I believe (according to Islamic sources that I read long ago) the whole concept is based on biblical origins from which American law too has taken some guidelines. Hence doctors pay money (via insurance) for deaths even if they are not responsible.

Do we want to go down that route? Are we going to make arbitrary new laws or accept sharia/biblical laws?

However there is another thing that is there in sharia and that is death in lieu of payment (or vice versa) . We have not shown the gumption to rain death when payment is not possible. Raining death would seem a more doable option than negotiating with Pakis for money?

It seems to me that the war option with Pakistan is kept entirely in abeyance in keeping with requests from Washington to avoid stressing their partner in sodomy the Pakistan army. I wonder if war becomes a more attarctive option given that paki perfidy is now pretty much out in the open?

Altair · Post by **Altair** » 28 Jul 2010 21:22

It took 9 years for American people to start knowing about the Pakistani perfidy. They stay on the opposite side of the planet.
How many years will Indian people take to know about the Pakistani perfidy?
We have a PM ji and drugged media who is in a denial state that somehow peace talks and aman tamasha will turn Pakistan into a friendly country.
A Mad dog cannot and must not be domesticated. It must be shot. period.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 28 Jul 2010 21:57

shiv wrote:Do we want to go down that route? Are we going to make arbitrary new laws or accept sharia/biblical laws?

One need not go that far into mythology to justify one's claims. It suffices to know that in the modern world, the concept of payment of damages is well known.

If one wants to explore the sub-war options with Pakistan, then compensation option should be right up there on the top.

The fact, that Pakistan's financial assets, like that of all countries, may be under the care of external financial institutions, over which Pakistan has only a limited leeway, and there are international laws which enable another party to confiscate those assets, plays in our favor. Pakistan's foreign assets can be frozen as well as confiscated. There is no need of war.

In the case of some non-state terror group, it is difficult to find out their financial dealings, their bank accounts, their properties. So those powers, who have non-state terror groups as their major pain in the ass, they have tough luck. But India has been blessed by a terror group with a known name, a known address and known bank accounts. What can India have asked for more? We have got the ideal terrorist group out there terrorizing us! So let's make use of our good fortune!

If India wants to free itself of Pakistan-sponsored terror we have to change the rules, the complexion, of terror. How does it help a gangster if after every crime, he has to pay up a large amount as compensation. What fun is there in that kind of crime? Trivially put, how many window panes would you go and break, if you hard put on money but have to pay for all the damages. If Pakistani Army is forced to pay compensation, directly or through the Pakistani State, to India for its terror attacks, they will become a laughing stock of Jihad International, just as Libya has become!

Secondly it would not suffice to have some court process which points fingers at the Pakistani State. If India wants to put a big billboard on top of Pakistan, saying "Terrorist State", than that would happen only after we have extracted the compensation from Pakistan. It is a financial transaction, that marks an historical fact.

If we want to be effective, we have to stop thinking in maximalist terms - in death to Pakistani Army, in assassinations of their military chiefs, in bombing of terror camps, covert action, wagerah, wagerah, simply because maximalism will paralyze us and nothing will come out of it, and history of terror acts against India shows that maximalism is worthless.

My point is: Take aggressive measures against Pakistan, but also take those measures whose prospects of success are highest and which are similarly effective in getting the message across - stop terror.

Cosmo_R · Post by **Cosmo_R** » 28 Jul 2010 22:18

RajeshA wrote: The fact, that Pakistan's financial assets, like that of all countries, may be under the care of external financial institutions, over which Pakistan has only a limited leeway, and there are international laws which enable another party to confiscate those assets, plays in our favor. Pakistan's foreign assets can be frozen as well as confiscated. There is no need of war."

Two points:

1. Nothing can be done unless the SD and the EU agree to label TSP as a Terrorist State--not going to happen.

2. If somehow #1 does happen, Pakistan will declare war on India using nukes. That will crimp our Netas' appetites.

I go back to plausible deniablity. The terrorist ecosystem the TSP has spawned can be used against them. The WikiLeaks episode regarding ISI bounties/payments to soosais against the Indian embassy and contractors again illustrates that this is rent-a-bomber stuff. Nothing religious/ideological. Keep them employed and paid and they will have less incentive (and human resources) to use against us.

That is this only short term option left.

On the Stratfor thingie, I would not blindly accept Friedman's (he too has an agenda) view. However, what strikes me is who is at most risk from loose Paki nukes? India? not really--they are officially India-specific anyway.

Stampeding the Pakis into moving the nukes will stampede the West into seizing them. At least that is what seems to stand out.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 28 Jul 2010 22:34

Cosmo_R wrote:
RajeshA wrote:The fact, that Pakistan's financial assets, like that of all countries, may be under the care of external financial institutions, over which Pakistan has only a limited leeway, and there are international laws which enable another party to confiscate those assets, plays in our favor. Pakistan's foreign assets can be frozen as well as confiscated. There is no need of war."
Two points:

1. Nothing can be done unless the SD and the EU agree to label TSP as a Terrorist State--not going to happen.

2. If somehow #1 does happen, Pakistan will declare war on India using nukes. That will crimp our Netas' appetites.

On 26/11/2008 many countries were wondering how India would react. India did not even twitch. But had India undertaken some steps, or made some noises even, the SD and EU would have been afraid, that a nuclear war could break out. Now that Pakistan's culpability has been established to a high degree of confidence, next time some attack happens in India, for SD and EU to confiscate Pakistan's assets, would be really a small step to calm down the war drums.

It all depends on India's reaction to terror attacks.

We should not overestimate our capabilities, but we also need not underestimate India's weight in the world.

The second point about Pakistan declaring war on India using nukes, I would rather not comment on!

Brad Goodman · Post by **Brad Goodman** » 28 Jul 2010 23:09

India should increase its share in WB and IMF lendings. There would be nothing like seeing a slimy SMQ wearing an Armani suit and speaking Oxford english and begging IMF where a SDRE baniya is asking him annoying questions on VAT and agriculture tax, fiscal discipline and then rejecting his request based on technical matters.

A_Gupta · Post by **A_Gupta** » 28 Jul 2010 23:57

I believe many RAPEs put their money in Swiss bank accounts. Even opening negotiations with the Swiss to enable freezing some of those accounts - even if the Swiss will not agree to do it in a hundred years - may have a salutary effect on RAPEs. Money may flee to other centers; similar negotiations will be needed there.

BUT - Indian netas have the same weakness of money stashed away in foreign bank accounts. If they create such a weapon where a person's Swiss bank account can be frozen, they fear that it will be turned upon themselves, sooner or later. Therefore, they will **never** attempt such a thing.

Cosmo_R · Post by **Cosmo_R** » 29 Jul 2010 00:55

RajeshA. I think you hit it on the head. Had India... etc.

The west is not going to let India seize Pakistani assets--their courts won't allow it because of sovereign immunity. Each country where Pakistan has assets will insist it goes through the courts who will throw out the suit unless their government allows it unilaterally or under a UNSC sanction. Not gonna happen--China will veto it. I talked to a lot of lawyers after 26/11 regarding Paki assets in NYC and even conjunction with a certain religious group whose premises in Mumbai were attacked. Nothing could be done unless the SD declared Pakistan a terrorist state.

Now, the pakis already know the pattern: strike and get India to not respond for a couple of weeks and the Indian resolve vanishes in the face of many arguments and undertakings (never to be fulfilled) by the US. It does not take much to guess that they have an opportunity during the CWG. Would the Netas do an immediate strike with all those athletes and press around?

IMHO, there are no options left except covert ones. But, MMS has already publicly rejected those saying it would 'brutalize Indian policy". Maybe he's right.

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 29 Jul 2010 01:16

The other option is hitting Pakistan where it hurts, every time there is a terror attack on India.

Destroy the financial investment centers of RAPEs in Pakistan, no need to go behind ISI/TSPA head quarters. A nice restaurant here, nice hotel there etc., within and without wherever they exist.