MRCA News and Discussion

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sandeep bhavsar
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Re: MRCA News and Discussion

Post by sandeep bhavsar »

MMRCA Decision Matrix
TITLE-----------------------------------------------------Weightage-----Hornet--F16--Gripen--Rafale--Mig35--EF
Cost Per Piece ----------------------------------------------8-------------2-----3-----4-----1-------5-----1
Life Cycle Cost ---------------------------------------------8-------------2-----4-----4-----3-------5-----3
Proven AESA Radar -------------------------------------------9-------------6-----5-----3-----2-------2-----2
Effective Use Against China ---------------------------------14------------6-----5-----5-----5-------4-----6
Effective Use Against Pakistan ------------------------------4-------------6-----4-----6-----6-------6-----6
A2A Role ----------------------------------------------------8-------------3-----5-----4-----3-------5-----6
A2G Role ----------------------------------------------------11------------6-----4-----5-----6-------4-----6
High Alt Performance-----------------------------------------11------------6-----4-----4-----6-------6-----6
Desert Condition Performance---------------------------------6-------------5-----6-----4-----4-------4-----4
Engine MTO---------------------------------------------------8-------------4-----4-----4-----4-------3-----5
Technology Transfer------------------------------------------11------------3-----3-----5-----4-------6-----4
Nuke Fuel Reprocessing Tech----------------------------------12------------6-----6-----0-----3-------6-----4
Political Consideration/Mileage------------------------------15------------6-----6-----0-----3-------4-----4
Possible Split Between Vendors-------------------------------2-------------3-----3-----5-----5-------5-----4
Latest Airframe----------------------------------------------7-------------5-----3-----5-----4-------3-----5
Sanction Safe------------------------------------------------7-------------2-----2-----3-----5-------6-----5
Diversification----------------------------------------------9-------------5-----5-----5-----2-------2-----5
MTBF---------------------------------------------------------7-------------4-----5-----5-----4-------2-----4
EWS and Avionics---------------------------------------------10------------5-----5-----4-----4-------3-----4
Combat Proven------------------------------------------------8-------------4-----6-----3-----4-------5-----3
Co-Marketing with HAL----------------------------------------7-------------2-----2-----6-----3-------6-----6
Carrier Capability-------------------------------------------8-------------5-----2-----3-----3-------4-----2
Aerodynamic Performance--------------------------------------6-------------4-----4-----5-----5-------5-----5
Spares/Engine Commonality with existing or Future AC --------4-------------3-----0-----3-----0-------6-----3
Range--------------------------------------------------------4-------------4-----4-----4-----4-------3-----3
Spares Supply------------------------------------------------8-------------4-----5-----3-----3-------2-----3
RCS----------------------------------------------------------8-------------5-----3-----3-----3-------3-----4
Total Scores--------------------------------------------------------------995---931---809---811-----929----937
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Re: MRCA News and Discussion

Post by Singha »

any source for the 50 pakfa purchase? would not make sense such a small number if FGFA is the eventual prime soln...
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Re: MRCA News and Discussion

Post by Lalmohan »

almost all Mid East airforces have paf pilots, either active or retired. there is also considerable use made of paf training facilities. however the us keeps an eye on all of this, and generally makes sure that training remains limited to defensive tactical (i infer this from a conversation with a us military guy) capabilities with a little bit of offensive in some cases. uae perhaps more ahead than others. most of them dont actually want to be in a shooting war if they can help it, but do want to deter eye-ran. i have little doubt that the paf pilots provide a dose of competence to the otherwise playboy pilot cadres that normally serve these airforces. i also struggle to see how british and american expats will actually fly these birds in anger... (againt israel?)
the paf therefore does have access to info on all the latest goodies, but i also dont think that they will receive hardware like in 71. in those days aircraft were a lot simpler and easier to operate, now receiving a state of the art fighter without the months of training before use will only create expensive junk on the desert floor. also, the arabs have a different view of india these days (as does unkil their chief gubo-er)
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Re: MRCA News and Discussion

Post by Philip »

With the Pak-FA only arriving in about 5 years time at the earliest,the delay in perfecting the LCA and its tiny rate of production according to official reports,plus many squadrons with aircraft unavailable due to the upgrades of all existing types,a significant shortfall is expected at a dangerous time in the country's history.A resurgent China is now flexing its muscles both diplomatically and militarily arrogantly and imperiously challenging India's territorial sovereignity in Arunachan Pradesh,while still occupying thousand of sq. miles of territory in Aksai Chin and collaborating with Pak in building a rail link through Tibet into Pak across occupied Indian territory.In any spat with China,we need to be able to utterly destroy China's miliatry abd civilian infrastructure in Tibet,destroying key features of the Karakorm Highway,the Tibet railway,and other key military bases,command centres,missile launch sites,etc.Our current aircraft in service,barring the SU-30MKI do not have the "legs" and ability to carry large payloads of ordnance and PGMs.We will face large numbers of PLAF aircraft including their own Flankers and will need to carry out long range stand-off attacks using PGMs.

Therefore,it is neccessary to have within a few years a significant number of 4++ tech aircraft that can combine with our Sukhois in meeting and defeating the Sino-Pak threat which might be a joint co-ordinated attack,given the plight of Pak at the moment.China is trying to outflank us over the Himalayas through Tibet to take control with Pak of Afghanistan and its trillions of doillars of mineral wealth and reach the mouth of the Gulf at Gwadar,by road,rail and by sea.This is crucial to its plan of encirclement of India and a bold attempt to strangle India's petro supplies before they exit the Gulf.The proposed Iran-Pak-China pipeline is one method of China outflanking its vulnerability transiting the IOR through the Malacca Straits.It hopes that with discveries in the S.China Sea,where in the Spratlys it has engaged in a game of "Chinese take-away",it will be able to meet a large part of its energy and raw material needs closer to home,while the needs of Tibet and its N-Western provinces can be met through Central-Asian nations and the link through Af-Pak.
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Re: MRCA News and Discussion

Post by Singha »

to maintain the saudi tornadoes:
BAE has 5000 staff, some 2000 expats. Offices in Riyadh, Jeddah and Khobar.
Contractors on site at air force bases.

likewise the F-15 fleet must be maintained by a similar army of contractors overseeing any locals.
the below thread indicates boeing has setup some separate cos to manage the program and they love screwing the employees
really hard after tempting them with tax free high salaries
http://www.f-16.net/f-16_forum_viewtopic-t-11462.html

bottomline is - without the approval and support of boeing, bae, US govt and all these expat ground crew, the shiny tornadoes and F-15s are not coming pakside at all, not even one. and I assume for israel's sake the US keeps a tightish leash on the saudi awacs (not that it matters now coz the paks are getting their own).
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Re: MRCA News and Discussion

Post by shukla »

Jane reports..

India plays down reports of MMRCA decision
The official spokesman of the Indian Ministry of Defence (MoD) has downplayed media reports that France's Dassault Rafale and the Eurofighter Typhoon have emerged as favourites to win India's Medium Multi-Role Combat Aircraft (MMRCA) contest.

Speaking to Jane's on 10 August, Sitanshu Kar said no decisions have been made about the programme following the MoD's receipt of a comprehensive trial report on the six rival fighters competing for the INR420 billion (USD9.1 billion) contract.

Some media outlets in India had earlier reported that the results of the MMRCA technical evaluations, which concluded in mid-2010, had prompted the Indian Air Force (IAF) to recommend to the MoD that the shortlist be narrowed down to just two aircraft: the Rafale and Typhoon.
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Re: MRCA News and Discussion

Post by Kartik »

He has downplayed the reports, not downright rejected them..that might mean that there might be some truth to the report, but as others have been saying, it may not be the end of the story. There is still a long way to go and the competition would've by no means been whittled down to the 2 main EU players. expect the US to push even harder now and apply more pressure on the Congress sarkar.
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Re: MRCA News and Discussion

Post by Dmurphy »

As the adage goes "Nothing is confirmed till it officially denied"
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Re: MRCA News and Discussion

Post by putnanja »

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Re: MRCA News and Discussion

Post by Arya Sumantra »

F-solah is as much a threat to Tejas as Gripen has been. It's not merely about PAF operating it.

About the article in SA mag, it's like when pak-fa image had leaked more fake images were created and leaked to confuse all. Even russkies have said mig35 did not make it.
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Re: MRCA News and Discussion

Post by RamaY »

sandeep bhavsar ji

Are you sure your total correct? I tried to do a quick comparison between SH and M35 and it doesn't add up/

TIA
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Re: MRCA News and Discussion

Post by Kartik »

groan..how many of these types of reports will emerge before the truth actually emerges ? This one claiming F-16IN, MiG-35 and Typhoon have passed to the next round will make it look like the F-16IN and MiG-35 are the favourties based on price..I seriously hope that the F-16IN and MiG-35 are out in the first round itself. The competition has to be between the Rafale and Typhoon if the IAF intends to use these with ample upgrade potential over 30-40 years.
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Re: MRCA News and Discussion

Post by manum »

rather this report is based on logic of 3 different preferred regions...who might hold bigger clout politically...or need more satisfying efforts...USA, Europe, Russia...swedes seem to be losing out in all reports...them being smaller in everything...

this report is sure fake...or faker than the earlier EF and rafale being selected one...I could relate more with the points...where air force was putting its action where its mouth is...selecting new breed fighter and selecting new region...

selecting mig-35 will put whole MMRCA competition in a big question mark for all obvious reasons...and if F-16 is in process of selction then I am sure government is sysy...only they were eating chinese milk powder to have bigger organs than their age...

I think things are more obvious now than anything...Eurofighter and rafale are in and I think "3rd" if there is according to conspiracy theory of magazine printout...should be then gripen if they atleast replace the engine...

Migs we can buy anyday...as sweet after dinner....

USA is out for sure...and so are Migs...
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Re: MRCA News and Discussion

Post by Thomas Kolarek »

putnanja wrote:From Shiv Arror's blog http://livefist.blogspot.com

MAG REPORT: F-16, MiG-35, Typhoon Make The Cut, While Rafale, Super Hornet & Gripen Don't

click on image for high res image ...

Image
Looks like LM & its Washington connections are trying to put push pressure tactics to make India buy this USAF Target practice aircraft (read F-16).
It would be saddening if the Puppet fells for it. I sincerely pray EF wins.
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Re: MRCA News and Discussion

Post by Arya Sumantra »

Considering that an important document of MoD had reached LM and was "dutifully returned" to the embarassed MoD, the mole of LM must be busy working overtime
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Re: MRCA News and Discussion

Post by shukla »

The common theme that seems to have emerged out the rumor mills so far is that.. All of them seem to have the EF in the 'made it' list and Gripen in the ' did not make it list'.

The EF so far seems to be the HOT favorite and the Gripen seems to be in serious trouble..
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Re: MRCA News and Discussion

Post by shukla »

Kartik wrote:He has downplayed the reports, not downright rejected them..that might mean that there might be some truth to the report, but as others have been saying, it may not be the end of the story. There is still a long way to go and the competition would've by no means been whittled down to the 2 main EU players. expect the US to push even harder now and apply more pressure on the Congress sarkar.
Agreed. The pressure to keep the downselect process under wraps would be tremendous as well.. They wouldn't be shy to denying every media report out there..
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Re: MRCA News and Discussion

Post by Singha »

with obama coming in dec, one of f18 and f16 will kept in final list...probably f18. then I think rafale and ef can be both kept to see who offers the best package deal.
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Re: MRCA News and Discussion

Post by Austin »

Well Typhoon and Rafale are capable but expensive breed with capability overlapping the MKI which is already operational.

So F-16 or Mig-35 will be good choice as it will keep the cost of MMRCA low and provide a cost effective platform , if the soft part like Radar ,Datalink and Sensor Fusion is good then a combination of MKI,F-16/Mig-35 and Tejas will be as deadly as it gets.
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Re: MRCA News and Discussion

Post by Christopher Sidor »

Singha wrote:with obama coming in dec, one of f18 and f16 will kept in final list...probably f18. then I think rafale and ef can be both kept to see who offers the best package deal.
Thats a problem we are humouring a entity who does not have our interests at heart. Nothing will show our independence of America more clearly, than us declaring the winner of this tender before obama comes to india. I certainly hope that this tender is not decided, based on some inputs by External affairs ministry. Ideally only the MoD and MoF should be involved.
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Re: MRCA News and Discussion

Post by manum »

if you see that way...then selecting any choice of the competition would allow a deadly whatever...
but going by name MMRCA, scale of competition, expectation, pressure to take an erect decision, future,all the discussions, lca and variants. and seeing other general capability bar, what seems right choice?

Forget MKI's if we compare fighters with its capability and say...since MKI offers us all this, we must go for other things, then we must buy more of mki's instead....
for us MKI defines as a large aircraft, larger than others we have, so only thing that mean by not taking MKI is we are taking something smaller and differently capable aircraft...then we can give MKI more precise role...may be...
we must be out of our minds to buy f18's for the same reasons....to me it gives an impression of mki...without all of its capabilities...
one way selecting f18 means...explain to me why? and give me one sound reason strategically for all kind of terms...airforce should be gambling then...AESA...un permanent seat...? ya for the second option i'll buy whatever, because it offers more security than a fighter...though we are getting a fighter too...

same with F16, until unless its offering us an amazing advantage, which i cant fetch in my dreams also, why goi will risk it, even it'll rock the parliament ...why?
saying price is an issue...I don't think so...after 42 more possible MKI deal...

and if I am wrong above...which is very much possible...only reason can be with time passing...we've had change of heart because of some strong hidden reasons...and now we are buying fillers nothing more...

with every article I am becoming more and more ardent believer that EF and RAFALE have actually won keeping in mind the spirit of the competition...with third one in the zone...if things go wrong...
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Re: MRCA News and Discussion

Post by ShivaS »

LCA folks will shoot down grippen entry because it will cannibalizethe LCA segment
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Re: MRCA News and Discussion

Post by Singha »

since obama is bent upon pumping up the local rat, the final list with f16/f18 missing should be announced on the exact day he lands in delhi.
that would be best slap on face.
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Re: MRCA News and Discussion

Post by ShivaS »

No bad idea. No announcements
It should just be leaked like foggy bottom does.
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Re: MRCA News and Discussion

Post by prastor »

I have a feeling this competition has less to do with the fighters themselves and more to do with somehow acquiring full access to the latest radar and engine technologies. Whoever cuts the deal first to this effect, will win. As of now, EADS and the German government made it clear that they will make India full partners in the program, giving it full access to Typhoon technology without end-user restrictions.

But again, if Obama (in Dec) promises full technology transfer of AN/APG-79 AESA radar technology and the GE-F414 engine manufacturing to India (which I am skeptical of, given unkil's record), then I am damn sure the F/A-18E/F Super Hornet will win this competition even though it is not the newest or the best in the list.

Maybe a bit OT:
Also, the Indian Navy has their own little fighter competition coming up soon. India requested info from USA on the F-35B/C. If Obama offers a ticket into the JSF consortium, do you think MoD will take the bait?
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Re: MRCA News and Discussion

Post by Arya Sumantra »

ShivaS wrote:LCA folks will shoot down grippen entry because it will cannibalizethe LCA segment
And for the same reason LCA folks should shoot down f16 as well. why should it be spared?
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Re: MRCA News and Discussion

Post by prastor »

Arya Sumantra wrote:
ShivaS wrote:LCA folks will shoot down grippen entry because it will cannibalizethe LCA segment
And for the same reason LCA folks should shoot down f16 as well. why should it be spared?
I agree. It would not make sense to buy more single-engined planes when we already have the local boy to fill the vacancy. I will even risk to claim that adding AESA and a higher thrust engine would make LCA the best 4++ fighter in its class.
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Re: MRCA News and Discussion

Post by nrshah »

prastor wrote: But again, if Obama (in Dec) promises full technology transfer of AN/APG-79 AESA radar technology and the GE-F414 engine manufacturing to India (which I am skeptical of, given unkil's record), then I am damn sure the F/A-18E/F Super Hornet will win this competition even though it is not the newest or the best in the list.

.......
The problem is even if OB promises something, it has to be approved by US COngress which does not have mandate to honor the president's commitments....
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Re: MRCA News and Discussion

Post by Guddu »

While we think, that we are doing the US a big favor, by giving them this 10 Billion deal, Saudis recently signed a 30 B deal for F-15's. As an OT item, BP was held liable for 20 B in damages re: the oil spill. So I am not sure, 10 B helps obtain a UN seat....but no harm in acting pompous about it....
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Re: MRCA News and Discussion

Post by David Siegel »

A Big Fat MMRCA Update
http://livefist.blogspot.com/2010/08/bi ... pdate.html

Sick of hearsay and rumours? Well, here's some stuff that's confirmed true, new, and potentially explosive for contenders in the Medium Multirole Combat Aircraft (MMRCA) competition. Let me just start by saying that the ball is squarely with the MoD now -- the field evaluation trial report has been submitted, but has not yet been approved by the MoD. There is likely to be a measure of back and forth between South Block and Vayu Bhawan before it is approved and passed on for the next stage. In the meanwhile, chew on this. No rumours here.

Point One, The Indian Air Force won't choose a twin-engine aircraft in the MMRCA, if a single-engine aircraft can "do the job", i.e, is satisfactorily compliant on all 643 test points that each of the six airplanes were tested for during the field evaluation trials (FETs). The IAF is of the view that both single and twin engine platforms have their own advantages, but that it will not discriminate between the two. If all six aircraft are compliant, the cheapest will be selected whether its twin or single-engined.

Point Two, and this is a biggie -- The model being used to gauge cost is not the lifecycle cost (LCC) model as was previously thought. That model has been dumped since the IAF perceives it to be indeterminable (read, ambiguous), and not measured in precisely the same way across the six aircraft being offered. In other words, the MMRCA purchase model will be based on unit flyaway cost of aircraft and financing options -- i.e, not overall cost of ownership. The IAF decided that it would only work with what is "determinable". In other words, no complex formulae on future savings on maintenance and overhaul. Do you see why I used the word bombshell in the post title? :)

Point Three, cost is going to be a big determinant. Out of the six aircraft that are judged compliant, the cheapest will be identified as L1, and will logically be the chosen aircraft.

Point Three-and-a-half, it emerges now that each vendor was extensively briefed on their performance once the trials were over, so they have a comprehensive sense of how they performed -- their function of compliance, if you will -- but they have nothing to compare it with. So unless you account for industrial espionage, none of the vendors know how the others have performed, but know exactly how well or badly their own platform performed during trials.

Point Four, the air force's trial report has been submitted to the MoD, but the latter hasn't approved it yet. The trial report strictly contains a tabulated representation of each contending platform's compliance or otherwise for each of 643 test points. Significantly, the trial report does not quantify the level of compliance of each airplane, but rather leaves this for the MoD to understand. In other words, the trial report has all the data and results, but no recommendations, no merit list, no explicit downselect, no stated eliminations, nothing. Yet, by virtue of the data it presents, everything is implicit. It provides the data. It provides the benchmarks for compliance. The MoD figures out who's in, who's not quite in, who's definitely out. The IAF hasn't put that down. The IAF has submitted a "factual report" -- the rest is upto the MoD. Again, there's been no ranking at any stage.

Point Five, there have been frequent attempts by various players to suggest that some of the non-US contenders will have trouble getting export licenses for subsystems that may be of American origin (like the Gripen's engines, weapons on some of the others etc). Let's lay that to rest for now -- the IAF extracted government-endorsed guarantees from each such contending vendor that there would be no problems in the supply of such equipment, and it was based on this guarantee certificate that the contender was allowed to participate in trials.

Finally, the option exists for the IAF to go for more than 126 aircraft, but a decision has not yet been taken on whether to club that option with the principal purchase.
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Re: MRCA News and Discussion

Post by mraghu »

NewsX channel was reporting that the IAF wants 74 more aircrafts, The deal was being increased to $20 Billion. I am unable to locate a URL confirming this
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Re: MRCA News and Discussion

Post by negi »

CWG should give a fair idea about the way we go about our procurement , we will somehow manage to buy these AC at an exorbitantly high price which will be obviously be justified by giving usual gyan on offsets/ToT or even depreciation in Dollar/Euro yada yada.
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Re: MRCA News and Discussion

Post by yantra »

Guddu wrote:While we think, that we are doing the US a big favor, by giving them this 10 Billion deal, Saudis recently signed a 30 B deal for F-15's. As an OT item, BP was held liable for 20 B in damages re: the oil spill. So I am not sure, 10 B helps obtain a UN seat....but no harm in acting pompous about it....
It would be naive to think that it is just $10b on the table. I am sure, all the contenders know that there is a possibility to get their foot in the door for a long-term strategic partnership, involving not less that $100b over 10 years (compare that to Saudi's $30b over 10 yrs) - purely in defense spending. There are other strategic options and advantages to the contenders as well in terms of market access, access to engineering base, etc. Overall, $30b of Saudis would look definitely smaller when all things are put together.
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Re: MRCA News and Discussion

Post by Lalmohan »

^^^ and when you look at that, would you rather go with Unkil, or with Germany, Italy, UK and Spain, with a bit of France on the side? what's going to be better in the long run?

(incidentally, CASA in Spain have become quite competent over the last few decades in case anyone is wondering)
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Re: MRCA News and Discussion

Post by nachiket »

David Siegel wrote:A Big Fat MMRCA Update
http://livefist.blogspot.com/2010/08/bi ... pdate.html

Point One, The Indian Air Force won't choose a twin-engine aircraft in the MMRCA, if a single-engine aircraft can "do the job", i.e, is satisfactorily compliant on all 643 test points that each of the six airplanes were tested for during the field evaluation trials (FETs). The IAF is of the view that both single and twin engine platforms have their own advantages, but that it will not discriminate between the two. If all six aircraft are compliant, the cheapest will be selected whether its twin or single-engined.

Point Two, and this is a biggie -- The model being used to gauge cost is not the lifecycle cost (LCC) model as was previously thought. That model has been dumped since the IAF perceives it to be indeterminable (read, ambiguous), and not measured in precisely the same way across the six aircraft being offered. In other words, the MMRCA purchase model will be based on unit flyaway cost of aircraft and financing options -- i.e, not overall cost of ownership. The IAF decided that it would only work with what is "determinable". In other words, no complex formulae on future savings on maintenance and overhaul. Do you see why I used the word bombshell in the post title? :)

Point Three, cost is going to be a big determinant. Out of the six aircraft that are judged compliant, the cheapest will be identified as L1, and will logically be the chosen aircraft.
:lol: So the "news" about Rafale and EF being at the top was all hogwash as expected. With above three points Gripen, Mig-35 and F-solah go back to the top again. As I said before, the government won't buy a $100 million aircraft especially when cheaper ones are available. And now it seems that the IAF agrees with this. Chances of Rafale/EF/superbug being chosen seem remote now.
Last edited by nachiket on 12 Aug 2010 20:35, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: MRCA News and Discussion

Post by Singha »

I disagree that 200 planes be bought. at a peak rate of at most 15 planes / annum, it will still be around 2020 before we get 100. and by then the pakfa will be online and open up options at high end.

its better to spend indian money on 100 more Tejas mk2.
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Re: MRCA News and Discussion

Post by manum »

:-? what a turn around...
we were given wrong brief from the start...but I learnt few thing...
1st...you can not judge cost of buying, running or maintaining a craft of any form...as the time progresses all we do is see what is necessary and cost effective today...
2nd...Tejas is a mole in this theory...means...craft also needs vision beyond present cost effectiveness...I cant judge about china in the same manner...they might believe in 1st theory altogether...their most expansive investment in craft as per my guess would be equipments to help reverse engineering...they seem smart...we are living in interesting times.
3rd...god is a politician...that is why we never know what he is up to...

but still I am hanging on EF...by the last silk thread...if Mig, F-16, nd gripen don't score...its still is cheapest...lol...
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Re: MRCA News and Discussion

Post by nachiket »

manum wrote: but still I am hanging on EF...by the last silk thread...if Mig, F-16, nd gripen don't score...its still is cheapest...lol...
How did you come to that conclusion? It could very well be the most expensive among the "big three".
manum
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Re: MRCA News and Discussion

Post by manum »

:oops: sorry...my bad...i didn't check the currency symbol...
now no reason to hang on to EF...
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Re: MRCA News and Discussion

Post by Singha »

well one thing is sure - F16 and F18 will never be permitted to be used on pakistan. a smackdown on pak using stockpiled parts and weapons would still be possible , but later sanctions will convert $10b worth of inventory and 126 jets into paper tigers and Tejas mk1 engine will also suffer.

if we ever want MRCA to be used on pakistan also , it cannot be a american plane.
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